2012 Fantasy Football: An Early Look At Arian Foster And The First Round
Posted by Greg Brosh on Feb 24, 2012 in Fantasy Football
The 2012 Fantasy Football season is still several months away. And even though we are waste deep in the NFL Combine and the NFL Draft, it’s always good to get an early start on next year. What better way to kick it off than to give a very early prediction for the first round. I know my picks will differ from many others. Even though you had quarterbacks like Aaron Rodgers and Cam Newton bust out in 2011, I am still in the mindset that if I have the first-overall pick, I’m going running back. This has worked a lot for me in the past, so why fix what isn’t broken. For those in the mid-range, going for a Drew Brees or even Calvin Johnson (PPR) might be your best bet.
Scoring Key:
1 point- 25 Yards Passing
1 points – 10 Yards Rushing/Receiving
6 points – Passing/Rushing/Receiving Touchdowns (This here is the big one. If I only get 3-4 points per passing and/or receiving touchdown, I would rather load up on running backs first).
1. Arian Foster – RB – HOU: I know I know. I should be taking Aaron Rodgers here, but I simply can’t bring myself to do it. Even in 13 games, Foster still managed to rack up 141.7 total yards a game with 12 total touchdowns. A restricted free agent, getting the highest tender possible, I see Foster putting up at least 1400 rushing yards and 500 receiving.
2. Aaron Rodgers – QB – GB: There. Happy? If I played in a league that didn’t reward 6 points for passing touchdowns, I’d pass on Rodgers and take either Ray Rice or LeSean McCoy. It’s difficult to see Rodgers matching his 45 touchdown passes from 2011. But even is he averaged 2 a game (32 total), owners will be delighted.
3. Ray Rice – RB – BAL: The biggest reason I like Rice is because he’s safe. He is probably the safest pick in, at least, the top 5. In the last3 years, Rice has averaged 1309 rushing yards, 654 receiving yards and 72 receptions, making him PPR gold. I don’t see the Ravens going to a more pass-oriented offense anytime soon, which should put Rice up near the top of the rankings.
4. LeSean McCoy – RB – PHI: I’ll get knocked for this being a homer pick, but McCoy’s carries and rushing yards have steadily gone up in the 3 years he has been in the league. Many fault Andy Reid for not giving McCoy the ball enough. But since he’s not a bruiser, limiting him a game here and a game there will help in the long run. I would like to see his receptions go up. He went from 78 in 2010 to 48 in 2011. The status of DeSean Jackson also figures to come into play.
5. Maurice Jones-Drew – RB – JAX: Might be a little bit too high for MJD, but it’s hard to not put him in the top 5 after he led the league in rushing with 1606 yards. And all that was done with the worst, or one of the worst, passing offenses in the league. The Jaguars are going through heavy changes this offseason, including new ownership, a new coaching staff and, hopefully, a new quarterback. It seems like he’s been playing forever, but MJD will only be 27 when the 2012 season begins. If the team can make some upgrades on offense, Jones-Drew should easily attain 1600-1700 total yards and 10-12 total touchdowns.
6. Cam Newton – QB – CAR: Two things are against Newton right now. One is the dreaded “Sophomore Slump.” After breaking almost every single NFL rookie record, the question will be if he can even come close to any of his 2011 numbers. Another question mark will be the status of Panthers OC Rob Chudzinski, who is gaining interest in the Jaguars’ head coaching spot. So given that Newton is a force near the goal-line with his 14 rushing touchdowns, that makes him a strong option alone. But, his value could decrease if it looks like he isn’t improving on his mechanics in training camp.
7. Calvin Johnson – WR – DET: Calvin Johnson. Andre Johnson. Both are deserved of the No. 7 spot, but I leaned more towards Megatron not only because I like Matthew Stafford more than Matt Schaub, but also because the Lions’ running game has been a question mark. With a healthy Stafford, Johnson averaged 105.1 receiving yards a game, had 8 100+ yard receiving games with 16 touchdown catches. With Jahvid Best one more concussion away from being done with football completely and the status of both Kevin Smith (FA) and Mikel Leshoure (Achilles) unknown for the start of training camp, the Stafford-to-Johnson connection could be in full force again in 2012.
8. Drew Brees – QB – NO: With 6 points per touchdown, why not? 13 300+ passing games and 46 touchdown passes in 2011 will give anyone a chance to be in the fantasy top 10. The biggest thing to watch out for is what happens to Marques Colston. An unrestricted free agent this offseason, there has been no word on what the team plans to do with their No. 1 receiver. Brees’ free agency status also muddies up the waters. So if Colston is gone, and he says he WON’T take a hometown discount, Brees’ value drops.
9. Andre Johnson – WR – HOU: For those who think Johnson will fall under the radar because of an injury-riddled 2011 season, think again. By the time training camp rolls around, both Johnson and Matt Schaub should be good to go in what will be Johnson’s bounce-back season after catching a measly 33 passes in 7 games.
10. Matt Forte – RB – CHI: At one point, Forte was the receiving game for the Bears as he racked up 52 receptions in 12 games. A free agent in 2012, no one know what the future holds. The Bears fired GM Jerry Angelo after many questionable decisions and OC Mike Martz resigned. And as a free agent, it’s not yet known if Forte will even be a Bear by the time OTAs begin. Talks have been said to be very far apart, but I just can’t see the team letting their best offensive weapon leave. So if the pieces fall into place, Forte should be a strong PPR option next season.
11. Tom Brady – QB – NE: I could of ranked Brady after Andre Johnson, but I don’t want to give the quarterback position THAT much love. Brady is one of those quarterbacks, like Peyton Manning, who can make anyone around him look better. With the addition of Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, Brady set career highs in passing yards (5235), yards a game (327.2) and yards-per-attempt (8.6). Owners can thank a shoddy secondary and a so-so running game for Brady having to heave it up so much. But even so, Brady should be a lock for 4300 passing yards and 35+ touchdowns in 2012 even when the team improves both areas. Brady can move up a couple notches in the next few months.
12. Larry Fitzgerald – WR – ARI: Have to go with Fitzgerald in the last spot. Even with continuing question marks at quarterback, he still caught 80 passes for 1411 yards and 8 touchdowns. The jury is still out on if Kevin Kolb is a legit starting NFL quarterback. But with the news that Ken Whizenhunt might bring Toddy Haley back to call the offense, that could be huge for the Cardinals.
I’m already in FF withdrawal. Some thoughts on your top 10:
1. Agree Foster is #1.
2-3. I like Rice & Shady here. They are still young, healthy PPR machines.
4. I prefer Rodgers here. He’s at least 1 tier above any replacements.
5. No arguments on MJD–although if they get any passing game he’ll take a hit.
6. I don’t like Newton here. Running QBs are injuries waiting to happen. I’d rate him below Brees & Brady. I’d take Megatron with this pick.
7. My pick would be Forte.
8. I’d take Wes Welker here. Consistent PPR maniac who can’t be covered in space.
9. Brees would be my pick. I’ll let someone else take a flyer on AJ. He’s not getting any younger and the injuries are mounting by the day. I’d put him late in round 2 or early 3 and cross my fingers.
10. I’d take Roddy White over Fitz. Mr. Pimp Juice led the league in ’10 and ’11 with targets. Even with Jones in the mix, White is solid and Ryan is getting better. Close second here to Brady.
Here are some other observations from this season:
1. QB: you need to have a top 5 QB. The drop off is huge after the top 2 tiers. Rivers might be a steal in next year’s draft.
2. RB: I’m drafting next year with an eye on solid handcuffs. Way too many injuries here to mess with the dreaded running back by committee. I’m going young with my RBs–no one over 28 in the top rounds. Sorry Fred Jackson.
3. WR: If you can’t pick the top guys, there’s little difference between #5-#20. Stock up.
4. TE: I’m going to snipe Gronk or Graham early. No one can touch their production. Easily 5pts game difference between them and #3.
5. D: Undervalued by my league. I drafted the Ravens and picked up the 49ers off waivers. Great to play 1 with the best matchup. Easily added 5 points/week over a replacement.
6. K: why do we even draft these?
Happy New Year!
Great break down sir! I too suffer from lack of fantasy “water”.. not sure what I’ll do once the super bowl is all gone.. sigh
at least it won’t be as bad as last year.
Good observations Bill. Newton has some question marks, but the big one will be who the new OC will be if Chud leaves. I have been reading many opinions that Newton should be the NUMBER ONE pick. No way. I don’t care if nothing changes with the offense. I can’t take that chance.
I had considered Welker and I will likely get him in there somewhere. I ranked AJ high simply because of his offensive role, but I didn’t take into account past injuries. For now, all these guys are ranked with the “clean slate” aspect.
Once we get deeper into the offseason, I’ll change this again.
Why is Andre Johnson ranked so high? He is always hurt. Fitz should be higher than Andre. I think Newton is too high. It’s hard to count on rushing TD’s from a QB
Keep in mind that this is a very RAW ranking considering we haven’t even started the playoffs yet.
Newton is ranked high right now strictly for what he did in his rookie year and with the upside that’s there. This guy did all he did in a lockout. Imagine what he could have done with an entire offseason working with the coaching staff. If the team brings in an offensive coordinator (If Chud leaves) who can help Newton’s mechanics and if the team can upgrade with another receiver or even two, I don’t see Newton sliding that much. Steve Smith isn’t getting any younger, so the team HAS to draft for the future soon. Possibly as soon as this year.
I think Newton is the real deal. Will his rushing touchdowns fall? Of course, but I don’t see it being by that much.
So how close was Gronkowski to this top 12? I would take him ahead of Andre Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald just because of the QB throwing him the ball.
Gronk should be the next Gates as a No. 1 tight end who I would pass up some receivers for.
Josh McDaniels is rumored to be the guy who replaces Bill O’Brien, who is taking the Penn State job. That worries me some because McDaniels doesn’t use the tight ends in the passing game.
But considering that Gronkowski and Hernandez are the most talented tight ends that McDaniels can make use of, I can’t see him being dumb enough to take Gronkowski out of the playcalling by that much. With New England, the OC title is just that: A Title. The playcalling still goes through Belichick.
Right now, I would put Gronk in the low second round, high third.
Not a big believer in Forte, but Shady is definitely a guy I am targeting next year.
Forte is one of the bigger question marks Ray. If Martz had stayed, I can see him staying in the first round with his PPR value. But Mike Tice taking over that job worries me. He’s another I can see falling, even out of the first round.
And as far as the Bears are concerned, I’d be dancing in the streets now that Angelo is fired. Maybe now they will upgrade their receivers.
And you know me Ray, if McCoy is there I’m taking him. If I have the No. 1 pick, I might be tempted since I missed out on McCoy in every league this year.
For those doubting Newton because he’s a “running quarterback,” rest easy. Newton doesn’t look to run first, and always gets down to avoid the big hit (except around the goal-line). That said, he’s probably not worth the #1 pick in the draft in a standard league.
considering he threw for 4051, more than any of the years Vick threw (even in his best year), newton definitely isn’t a run-first guy.
I think this is an excellent first run at a 2012 draft order, and I agree with most of Bill’s comments, except that while I would rank Brees above Cam Newton, I would not rank Brady above him. I think people are a little jaded by Mike Vick’s performances in the past, but Newton is a lot different. He is a throw first, run-if-necessary QB, with an underrated arm. I think you will see the number Newton put up this year repeated, or at least almost repeated. He just needs another big-play receiver threat, and he needs to keep his ego in check. I also think there will be a significant fall off in numbers by Gronk next year, as defenses take that option away from Brady.
thanks for the compliments JR. i completely agree with you on the vick/newton comparisons. i don’t worry about his running and throwing. he already got more passing yards as a rookie than vick ever did in his career.
what worries me is his ego. he already stated he wants to be another lebron james. hopefully being around veterans and actually playing on a losing team humbled him.
as for gronk, i don’t see him matching the numbers he put up in 2011, but i think he should still get the nod as the no. 1 tight end. if defenses game plan for gronk, hernandez and welker will destroy them.
I agree – it’s pick your poison with Brady at the helm. I am picking up Hernandez in the draft if Gronk and Graham are gone. Two TEs in NE is not too much with Gates and Finley sort of disappointing this year.
I like Brees ahead of Newton and I like Fitzgerald ahead of AJ, but its fun to draft plan for next year.
Nice list!
Mike.
lol no adrian peterson?
no way in hell i put AD anywhere near the top 12. coming off a serious acl and mcl tear, he might not even be ready by week 1.
I have 3 questions…
1) Do you believe what is coming out of Tennessee? is CJ2K going to be back? if so where do you place him. Right now if I believe the hype, I would replace Cam Newton with him. at #6..the question is whether to believe the hype or not?
2) I am not high on Andre Johnson….I have Megatron as my number 1 WR, probably Greg Jennings as my number 2, and Fitzegerald as 3, possibly Wes Welker at 3 too. But I guess a lot depends on who is QB in Arizona…and how McDaniels will use Wes! What do you think…
3) DMC? Where do you rank him…the kid has the potential to be the top RB in the league when healthy! the question is When….is this his year?
The Johnson stuff is just hype for now. Much of his problems were on him and not his offensive line. There were holes there, he just didn’t
take advantage of them.
If I knew McFadden was going to be healthy for a full 16-game season, I might put him in the latter half of the first round. But very late. I don’t trust Oakland’s offense on a week to week basis.
WAY too early for a QB. Rodgers goes down, your team is screwed. Just ask Brady owners of 2008
And 4 QBs in the first round?? I wanna be in this league!
Quarterbacks are making extreme strides with many offenses going the passing route over using running backs. I wouldn’t be surprised if quarterback was the consensus top 5 pick again this year in leagues that reward 6 points for passing touchdowns.