Carlos Beltran, Chris Young and 5 Sell-High Candidates for the Second Half
Posted by Greg Brosh on Jul 11, 2011 in Twisted Sports
The All-Star break is a good time to evaluate your team and see where you need to make improvements heading into the second half of the season.
It’s also a time to predict which players will pick up their pace in the second half and which players will fall.
Here are five players who fit the latter category. You should keep an eye out for trade possibilities for them.
- Melky Cabrera, OF, Kansas City Royals – Cabrera is on pace to shatter his career highs in home runs, RBI, stolen bases and batting average. Don’t expect that to last. His average will probably fall into the .260s, his career average. He’ll set a new career high for home runs, but don’t expect him to finish with over 20 home runs. And, as the season wears on, his legs will tire, making it harder for him to steal bases. Trade him before he starts to slump.
- Chris Young, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks – Young’s .262 batting average in the first half of this season would be the best average of his career if it holds up. His career batting average is only .244. As his average dips in the second half of the year, his power numbers will slow down a bit too.
- Carlos Beltran, OF, New York Mets – Beltran’s days as a fantasy stud are over. He’s been battling injuries for the past few seasons, and I don’t expect him to make it through the rest of the season without missing some time. If you can trade him for an outfielder with a less spotty injury history, do it.
- Jhonny Peralta, 3B/SS, Detroit Tigers – Peralta is normally a pretty productive RBI guy, so his production should stay decent. But, he’s currently hitting .312, nearly 50 points above his career average. If you can trade him for a higher average 3B/SS, do it. If not, moving him to the bench later in the season might be a good idea.
- Alex Avila, C, Detroit Tigers – Avila could end up being just fine. But, he’s already caught 70 games this year and is on pace to catch more games than he’s ever done in his career. I’m not saying it will catch up to him, but it’s something to keep an eye on as the dog days of summer wear on. If his numbers start to slip at all, don’t hesitate to trade him for a veteran catcher.
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Why would Chris Young’s power slip? Because a hitter just entering his prime whose average increased by 5 points from last year who has 32,22, and 27 HRs in his full seasons? That makes sense….Also, is Carlos Beltran currently hurt? Nope! I think a guy with a career .282 batting average who has lots of power can hold up. He isn’t stealing bases or running rampant in CF so he isn’t putting as much strain on his bum knee……Johnny Peralta, a 29 year old SS in a great lineup is putting up his best numbers because after getting out of cleveland. I think I could hit .300 with 20-25 bombs with Miguel Cabrera, Victor martinez, and Brennan Boesch around me. Alex Avila..see Johnny Peralta…Melky Cabrera is the most likely one of this group to regress in the second half, but I’m still not buying what your saying. He’s not even in his prime yet and he has a full-time job in a solid, young lineup with lots of freedom.
Avila might get tired legs, that’s all I’m saying. Beltran is getting old and hasn’t stayed healthy for the past two seasons. He’s breaking down, so you have to keep his career averages out of the equation.
As for Young, I said his average would slip. And, by simple statistics, generally less total hits means less home runs too, if his home run rate stays the same. He’ll still finish with something like 28 home runs, but that would mean only 12 in the second half.
I’m not saying you should actively look to trade these guys, just keep an eye on their numbers and keep your mind open to trade possibilities.
Oh yeah, I forgot. It’s quite common for 24-year catchers to get tired legs after a half season in a starting role…the same thing happened to Mike Piazza and Pudge Rodriguez..right?
Chris Young’s average will slip..because his BA has been consistently improving each year with the exception of 2009, and he’s a better hitter in the second half than first…he’ll probably hit .220 the rest of the way…my bad
Mark – Right on all counts per Chis Young. Better 2nd half player, coming into his prime, taking a small step forward in BA. Underlying numbers good. THere is absolutely nothing here to suggest regression. THis guy’s just looking in the rearview mirror “gosh, he’s a .244 career hitter, so that’s what he’ll end up hitting this year!”
Guarantee that Avila’s average dips down. He was over .300 a couple weeks ago and is down to .284. Someone can’t make the judgement about the rookie catcher but it’s okay for you two compare him to Piazza and Pudge? I didn’t now a newly starting catcher already moved up to their level.
Do we just ignore that .212 average for Young in ’09? I mean he did follow it up to hit .257 in ’10.
LOL cHRIS YOUNG IS BATTING BELOW THE MENDOZA LINE SINCE ALL STAR BREAK.