Will Bernard Scott finally get a chance to shine in 2012?

One look at the Bengals’ 2011 squad and you never would have thought they’d be good enough to make it to the playoffs. With rookie Andy Dalton under center, I thought they would be a 5-11 or 6-10 team at best. But things are looking up for the Bengals going into the offseason, despite losing to the Texans in the playoffs. One of the bigger question marks, however, is how the team is going to address the running back spot. After signing a one-year deal last year, Cedric Benson didn’t exactly make a case for a contract extension, averaging a mere 3.9 yards a carry. Not to mention the team didn’t use him as much in recent years after he failed to reach 300 carries for the first time since 2008. There are no real reports that the Bengals want to keep Benson around for another year, so that leads me into my next 2012 Fantasy Football Sleeper:

Ladies and gentlemen, I give you Bernard Scott.

Scott is more of a deep sleeper than a true sleeper. In the 3 years he has been in Cincinnati, he’s had his ups and downs.

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Scott is a better pass catcher than Benson, but he was barely used during his career. There has also been some mixed messages as to how the Bengals will use Scott in 2012. Offensive coordinator Jay Gruden said:

“From a consistency standpoint, you’d like to get Bernard more carries, more touches.”

A recent Tweet from Joe Reedy of the Cincinnati Enquirer states that won’t be the starter in 2012. But even so, Scott is the starter as of now on the depth chart.

So where do I see Scott’s fantasy relevance in 2012? Much of that depends on what the team does in free agency and in the draft. They still need receiver help past AJ Green and they could use help in the secondary. If they draft a running back, Scott’s chances of having a big role early increase with the off chance that the new guy doesn’t catch on with the system like the team was hoping, ala Dolphins RB Daniel Thomas in 2011. If the team decides to go after a running back in free agency, Scott could still have some value as a change-of-pace guy in deeper PPR leagues. He did manage 6 points in the loss to the Texans in the Wild-Card round of the playoffs. And when you are playing in a 16-team league, EVERY point counts.

After a quiet 2011 season, Colin Kaepernick will get another shot at competing for the starting job in 2012.

The 49ers do have a fantasy football sleeper in 2012, it’s just not Alex Smith. There is no denying that what Jim Harbaugh managed to do with the 49ers and Smith was beyond miraculous. A mediocre team just one year ago at 6-10, Smith and company were possibly one muffed punt away from going to the 49ers’ first Super Bowl since the 1994-1995 season.

Now even though Harbaugh was able to whip Smith back into shape, somewhat, I still see a very muddied picture at the quarterback position going into training camp. There is no doubt in my mind that Smith will be re-signed sometime in the offseason. You don’t take a team that far in the playoffs only to find yourself looking for a new job a few months afterwards. But I also believe that we will have a full-blown quarterback competition on our hands in training camp.

Which is why I think Colin Kaepernick could have a decent shot at gaining some significant sleeper value this offseason.

Looking back at Smith’s numbers during the regular season, he wasn’t the type of player you would label a Franchise Quarterback:

• Passing Yards: 3,144 (19th in the league)

• Average Yards Per Completion: 7.1 (17th in the league)

• Passing Yards Per Game: 196.5 (27th in the league)

• Passing Touchdowns: 17 (17th in the league)

So while Smith wasn’t the worst quarterback in the league last year, I hardly consider his skills as anything more than adequate. He did save himself by throwing no interceptions during San Francisco’s playoff run. But his on-field stats don’t tell the real tale.

Per NFL Films analyst Greg Cosell:

One of the attributes that separates high level quarterback play in big games and critical moments is the willingness to make stick throws into smaller windows. Smith did that with confidence against the Saints. In the NFC Championship game, he was hesitant and cautious on throws that were clearly defined.  Simply put, Smith left a lot of plays on the field against the Giants. While (Kyle) Williams publicly shouldered the burden of defeat, it was his quarterback who failed to deliver on the promise he had shown a week earlier.

So while Harbaugh might be able to get by with Smith in 2012, making changes at quarterback should be a priority.

I was high on Kaepernick coming out of Nevada and so were the 49ers, who traded up from the No. 45 spot to Denver’s No. 36 in exchange for 2011′s 45, 108, and 141 draft picks. Much like a younger Michael Vick, Kaepernick wasn’t afraid to take the ball and run. He ran for 1000+ yards from 2008-2010 and totaled 53 rushing touchdowns in those years. Besides being an athletic quarterback, he also boasted the strongest arm of all the quarterbacks drafted in his class. Unfortunately, a lower-leg injury and lack of a complete offseason derailed any chances Kaepernick had at the starting job.

Fast forwarding to this offseason, I am already starting to hear rumors that Kaepernick will be given another chance at the starting job. When asked the same question, Matt Maiocco of Comcast Sportsnet said:

Fully expect Alex Smith to return. But also expect the team to give Kaepernick a shot. It’s doubtful Harbaugh will have an open quarterback competition, but the best player will play. That’s something Harbaugh has said all along — about every position on the team.

Harbaugh won’t flat out say that Smith isn’t good enough to start another season, but he also left the door wide open for Kaepernick to push for a chance.

The only thing that is in Kaepernick’s way is the off chance that the 49ers bring in another quarterback to compete. I had brought up several times last offseason that Harbough had his eyes on Buccaneers backup Josh Johnson, who Harbaugh coached when both were at the University of San Diego. But if Harbaugh believes in Kaepernick that much and Johnson either re-signs in Tampa or goes elsewhere, Kaepernick has an excellent shot at being a sleeper pick in the later rounds in your 2012 fantasy drafts.

Could Jacquizz Rodgers prove size doesn't matter in 2012?

In the second part of my offseason Fantasy Football Sleeper analysis, I want to talk about a little guy who really didn’t get much of a chance to shine in Atlanta as a rookie. With the Falcons’ early exit last weekend against the Giants in the Wild Card round of the playoffs, it’s time to talk about what’s going to happen with the team’s backfield in 2012.

Michael Turner has been the breadwinner for the past 4 seasons, averaging an almost unheard of 297.5 carries in that time span. And even though he averaged 4.5 yards a carry in 2011, if you look at Turner’s numbers after Week 11, where he went for 100 against the Titans, they are mediocre at best:

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Yes he had that huge game against the Buccaneers, but I am throwing that game out. Not only were the Buccaneers a dysfunctional franchise on both sides of the ball, but their defense gave up an eye-popping 27.5 fantasy points a game. Anyone from our staff could have easily managed a 4.0 ypc average against that crap.

And against the Giants in the Wild Card round of the playoffs, Turner managed just 41 yards off 15 carries. The running game, or lack thereof, was one of many reasons why the Falcons were only able to put up 2 points in the Giants’ lopsided victory.

The Falcons could limit Michael Turner's workload in 2012.

Entering the age of 30 and due $5 million in 2012, it remains to be seen what the team plans on doing with Turner. NBC Sports’ Gregg Rosenthal tweeted that head coach Mike Smith realizes the running game “Needs to be more effective” and that the team will “Have to analyze amount of touches for Turner moving forward.”

So with the evaluation process on Turner in full force, let me introduce you to my second sleeper for 2012. Ladies and Gentlemen I give you Jacquizz Rodgers.

The Falcons selected Rodgers with the 145th overall pick in the 2011 NFL draft. A smallish back at 5’6/196, Rodgers fell to the 5th round strictly because of his size. Here are a few highlights of Rodgers’ career at Oregon State, per Wikipedia:

His greatest game in his young college football career came in a stunning upset of the then #1 ranked team in the country, the USC Trojans, when he had 36 carries for 186 yards and two touchdowns.

Rodgers broke the Pac-10 freshman rushing record during Oregon State’s 34-6 victory over UCLA on November 8, 2008.

In 2009, Rodgers scored 23 total touchdowns, including 1 passing and 1 receiving. He finished the season with over 1,400 yards rushing and 500 yards receiving.

Despite his small size, I really think Rodgers could have a much bigger role in the offense in 2012. If the Falcons decide to keep Turner, they are going to have to limit his role even more with so much mileage under his belt in such a short time. There has been no indication that the team plans on bringing back impending free agent Jason Snelling, who fractured his jaw against the Giants. The Falcons also don’t have a first round pick this year after trading away a goldmine to the Browns in last year’s draft for Julio Jones.

2012 Prediction:
Rodgers makes for an interesting PPR prospect (He caught 4 passes last weekend), especially in larger leagues. He has the speed and runs harder than his size dictates. And keep in mind another fellow Falcons alum by the name of Warrick Dunn (5’7/180) had a strong career despite his size. With the Falcons having other needs, especially on defense, they could decide to roll with Turner and give Rodgers more touches. At the very least, Rodgers could be worth a late-round flyer in all PPR leagues in the hopes he has a strong training camp.

Could Mike Tolbert be the next Charger to succeed elsewhere?

As we head into the offseason, our 2012 Fantasy Football Sleeper articles will be coming out in full force. With many players set to hit free agency, this year will see many new faces in new places. The first guy on my list is Running Back Mike Tolbert.

In the past few years, it always seems that the Chargers have some of the best running back depth in terms of backup running backs. From 2004 to 2007, Michael Turner sat behind LaDainian Tomlinson. And from 2008 to 2010, Darren Sproles cashed in on the franchise tag in 2009 and was a backup to Tomlinson and the combination of Ryan Matthews/Mike Tolbert. Set to hit free agency this offseason, could Tolbert be the next in line to succeed on another team?

First, let’s look at Turner’s stats as a starter with the Falcons:

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Turner is clearly starting to regress, but that’s mainly due to all the carries he received in his “rookie” year as a Falcon. Still, Turner, along with so many other players, showed that if you wait long enough and sit back and take what you can get as a backup, it will eventually pay off. Especially if you put up strong stats in limited time.

Now, let’s look at Sproles’ stats in his first year as a Saint:

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Sproles’ first season, rushing wise, in New Orleans wasn’t that impressive. But if you take into account his receiving yards and how much he meant on special teams, he had a great first-year campaign. The biggest knock on Sproles was his size (5’6/190). Chargers GM AJ Smith didn’t think Sproles could be a full-time running back because he is too small. While that might be the case, Sproles’ value, when he touches the ball, is still too good to ignore. He may not be the starter in 2012, but his role will still be huge.

The San Diego Union-Tribune was the first to report that the Chargers won’t re-sign Tolbert this offseason. Kevin Acee believes that because Tolbert doesn’t have a big resume’ and that “roly poly running backs are a dime a dozen,” the Chargers will move on and look elsewhere for Mathews’ backup. Tolbert reminds me a lot of Turner in size (Tolbert-5’9-243_Turner-5’10/244) and running style. But unlike Turner, Tolbert is a much better pass catcher.

Let’s check out Tolbert’s stats (Keep in mind I threw out 2008-2009 because the bulk of his work came in 2010-2011):

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Tolbert also has starting experience, having started 15 games as a fullback and as a running back, starting in place of Mathews, who has been hampered by injuries so far in his career.

So if the speculation is true and Tolbert gets a one-way ticket out of San Diego, here are three places he could go:

New England Patriots: Benjarvus Green-Ellis isn’t the answer at running back. He had some great moments in the 2011 season, but he clearly isn’t a guy I would want as my full-time starter. As a Stevan Ridley owner, I am hoping he can make a case for more work next year. But if not, Tolbert could look to go here. The only thing that worries me, especially from a fantasy standpoint, is that Bill Belichick doesn’t just stick to one guy in the backfield.

Cleveland Browns: Peyton Hillis could be on his way out and Monterio Hardesty can’t stay on the field because of injuries. Unlike the Patriots, the Browns have shown they are willing to stick to one running back, so this would be an ideal situation.

Green Bay Packers: And the rich get richer, but why not? Ryan Grant is also a free agent and there has been zero news regarding the Packers bringing them back. James Starks has loads of talent, but can’t stay healthy. Tolbert is easily a guy who could push Starks for playing time.

If anyone has any other thoughts on where Tolbert could go, or should go, shoot a comment below.

Kevin Boss is looking at a good matchup against the Bears.

For those teams who are entering their first week of the playoffs, which isn’t out of the ordinary, this article is definitely for you. Especially if you can make a last ditch attempt to pick up the scraps leftover on the waiver wire.

As always, I want to let all owners know that sleepers quite often, and unfortunately, don’t pan out. If they did, they wouldn’t be sleepers and wouldn’t have been on your waiver wire this deep into the season.

But I digress. Today I want to talk about Raiders TE Kevin Boss. As many owners know, Boss was never much of a weekly fantasy option with the Giants. In his four years in New York, he never eclipsed more than 37.8 receiving yards a game and his career high in touchdown receptions was a mere 6 in 2008.

However, I have two reasons why I like Boss this week against the Bears. The first is that the Raiders wanted to get him more involved in the passing offense going into Week 11. They succeeded. Known predominantly as a blocking tight end, Boss caught 5 passes for 37 yards against the Vikings. 8 PPR points isn’t huge, but it’s not bad for a guy who is likely still sitting out there as a fantasy free agent.

The second reason is the Bears Defense. They absolutely suck against opposing fantasy tight ends. Through 10 games the Bears rank dead last, giving up almost 12 points a game (11.7). That’s not a bad reason to at least consider Boss as a possible TE2 in two tight end leagues.

So what are the chances that Boss takes that momentum against a bad Bears D and blows up? Doubtful. But at the very least, 8-9 PPR points from your tight end position this late in the year isn’t bad.

Last week we discussed a potential long-term sleeper candidate in Chiefs receiver Jonathan Baldwin, so this week I decided to switch things up and focus on a receiver who should hold some fantastic sleeper value for the interim—Eagles receiver Jason Avant.

Jason Avant has always been one of those perpetual players who is never truly trusted each year in fantasy football, and to some degree, rightfully so. The truth is, however, knowing when to utilize a player—if the need is present, of course—helps the best managers get a leg up every single year.

Jason Avant I one of the players who can help you achieve this, but he is for everyone?

Well, let’s take a look at the data!

The Numbers and Trends:

Since 2008, Avant’s role has steadily increased within the Eagles offense, but his usage has been so significantly low that many owners simply looked away each week. Looking at the chart below, we can see the yearly increase, but we can also see a very low average output after three years of play:

2008	32 catches	377 yards	2 TDs
2009	41 catches	587 yards	3 TDs
2010	51 catches	573 yards	1 TD

But what is interesting to take into consideration is the fact that Avant has been the slight victim of change since 2008, which has been part of the reason for his limited use.

• In 2008, the Eagles added their most explosive receiver, DeSean Jackson.
• In 2009, the Eagles added another explosive receiver who is also a high quality possession receiver in Jeremy Maclin.
• In 2010, the Eagles put solid emphasis on RB LeSean McCoy which allowed them to run the ball more eliminating the need for a slot receiver.

Now, this is all fine and good if we want to discuss Avant’s past, but what about how this information translates to the present?

Then and Now:

Another interesting aspect here is comparing then and now.

When teams face the explosive DeSean Jackson, they are keeping their safeties deeper than before, which forces Michael Vick to move his eyes to his number two receiver Jeremy Maclin, and while Maclin is having the better year over Jackson—slightly—he isn’t always open thanks to the ability to roll coverage his way, if the safeties take Jackson out of the equation.

That leaves to players: LeSean McCoy out of the backfield, and slot receiver Jason Avant—I realize I left out TE Brent Celek, and we’ll get to that in a minute.

McCoy has 23 receptions for 138 yards and two scores through the first half of the season, but you have to account for a certain amount of those receptions being intended plays, either way, those 23 catches average out to roughly 3 catches per game—meaning, McCoy is NOT always the next inline after the receivers in the check-down process.

Jason Avant, on the other hand, is averaging 4.4 catches a game for 58.1 yards, and averages 6.1 targets a game (stats, subject to change after Monday Night’s contest)—averages that are currently career highs.

The Moral of the Story?

Remember the omission of Brent Celek earlier? That was because Celek is still being used far more as a blocking TE instead of a passing option, which has also led to more opportunities for Avant.

Remember something, coach Andy Reid likes this guy, and figures he can be just as good as some of the top slot receivers in the league, and while that is left to be seen, what is apparent, is the fact that the confidence Reid has is showing in Avant’s increased usage.

So what’s the moral of this little story? We know that Avant is good for about 4 catches a game, 50 yards or so, but no TD value, but does that mean Avant is a sleeper?

At first glance, Avant seems like your average lame-duck waiver wire player, who many seemingly pass over year in and year out, but when you run the numbers on the Eagles next three opponents, we begin to see another story developing—kinda like forecasting the weather.

The Closing Argument:

The Eagles get a very favorable schedule over the next three weeks as they face Arizona, New York (Giants) and New England.

The Arizona Cardinals and New England Patriots are as bad as it gets in pass coverage, but more importantly—as highlighted in the Baldwin article—these two teams give up the most 20+ yard plays to receivers.

Team	Yards per Game	Touchdowns	Rank
Arizona	277.6	9	30th
New York Giants	225.0	7	13th
New England	323.1	12	32nd

Why is that important? Well it’s simple.

The Eagles pass design is a vertical stretch attack with Maclin and Jackson on the outside, and up until recently, it has remained as such. But as Avant continues to improve, and the Eagles continue to look his way, the offense now suddenly has a viable attack with their new “inside guy”.

And when a slot receiver faces two teams who are the worst at covering within 20 yards, what do you think happens?

The Cardinals and Pats are going to have their hands full with Maclin and Jackson, as well as, LeSean McCoy which means Avant is almost a dead ringer to be the “forgotten man” for the next three weeks.

The Giants are a little bit better at pass coverage (13th) but the strategy still applies, and it showed in their first meeting, when Avant caught four passes for 33 yards in limited action.

Avant is a great weekly plug-and-play guy in Yahoo! leagues, and a nice three week consideration in deeper formats, where teams may be hurting for a WR.

Like I said, at this point in the season, the term sleeper can take on multiple identities, and Avant should prove that true over the next three weeks…are ya down?