Fantasy Target Practice ~ Blue Light Special: Greg Olsen

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The difficulty in trying to analyze or assess fantasy production and value this early in  season is there simply isn’t enough data to accurately gauge how a player might perform against new defenses, with new offensive lines. However, there is one statistic that many people overlook in fantasy, and it gives us some idea how certain players are trending for their team. That stat is targets.

If your stud wide receiver or tight end is starting off slow, but he’s getting his targets, then in all likelihood, the ship will get on course, and more of those targets will become receptions, yards, and touchdowns. If you have a breakout, waiver-wire stud, who is lighting it up, but their targets are very low, then the likelihood is that fantasy magic is not going to last.

Also be aware of peripheral information such as injuries. Two hot waiver pick-ups this week were Mario Manningham of the Giants and Jason Edelman of the Patriots. They had 17 and 16 targets respectively. Both were filling in for injured players. Edelman is out as soon as Wes Welker is back, while the top two receiver spots are up for grabs in New York. So Manningham is a worthwhile investment, and Edelman is not.

While two weeks is not much of a sample to work with, (and we will revisit this every 2-3 weeks and see who is trending up or down) let’s take a look at examples of how targets may help us gauge a players value and future production potential:

Player	Targets	Receptions	Yards	TDs	Fantasy Pts.	WR Rank
A	28	11	152	0	15.2	36th
B	20	11	95	1	15.5	35th
C	9	8	77	2	19.7	18th
D	10	9	96	2	21.6	12th

Players A and B are being targeted on double digits each week, and though the fantasy production is not there yet, statistically speaking, those numbers will go up. Both players started both games.

Player C and D are getting minimal targets each week, but have managed to turn most into receptions and touchdowns. That trend will change as the season moves on. Player C did not start either game this season, and player D only started one of them.

Player A is Carolina’s Steve Smith, player B is Roddy White, player C is rookie Percy Harvin, and player D is Dwayne Bowe.

I don’t think there is any doubt that Steve Smith will not increase his target to reception ratio, and find the endzone. In the reverse, Percy Harvin is not going to catch a touchdown every week on only 4.5 targets per game.

Here are the top 5 most targeted players at each offensive position, through two weeks:

	Wide Receiver		Running Back		Tight End
1	Steve Smith (CAR)	28	Tim Hightower	17	Kellen Winslow	19
2	Santonio Holmes	25	Darren Sproles	16	Brent Celek	18
3	Randy Moss	24	Fred Jackson	15	Chris Cooley	17
4	Andre Johnson	23	Maurice Jones-Drew	15	John Carlson	16
5	Steve Smith (NYG)	21	Chris Johnson	13	Owen Daniels	16
5	Nate Burleson	21			Antonio Gates	16
5	Ted Ginn, Jr.	21			Tony Gonzalez	16

Some of these names are rather obvious, but Burleson, Ginn, and Steve Smith of the Giants tied for 5th at wide receiver in targets? Hightower, Sproles and Jackson leading the running backs in targets? Carlson, Celek and Winslow might be a surprise for a few people at tight end, though all 6 listed above are in my top 11 TE Position Rankings:

–Opportunity Knocks Blue Light Special–

Greg Olsen, TE, CHI

Chicago Bears tight end Greg Olsen, was picked by me, and many of my colleagues as a top 3-5 pick at the position this year. He’s ranked 38th at his position now and averaging 2.5 fantasy points a game. Ouch. Fantasy owners who drafted him are in a panic. He has four paltry receptions through two games for 49 yards. Owners are wishing they took Dallas Clark who has 11 receptions for 222 yards and a touchdown. He’s the number one guy at TE, and he’s averaging 14.1 fantasy points per game. While Clark will not maintain those numbers for 16 games,  no one is going to trade him away. Greg Olsen on the other hand you can buy uber cheap. I just traded Willis McGahee for him in a dynasty league.

So why would you want to trade for Olsen who is looking like a bust? Over the remaining 14 games you’ll see his numbers start to look more like Clark’s. Clark has 11 receptions on 14 targets. Olsen has 4 on 12. Those ratios will start to go up for Olsen. The Bears first game was an ugly mess. In game two, Olsen’s QB, Jay Cutler started to get his act together, but they were facing the Steelers defense. Over their next six games they face the Seahawks, Browns, Bengals, Lions, Cardinals and Falcons. All of which are in the bottom half of the league in surrendering points to tight ends, except for Seattle. So trade for him now and you’ll have him against the Lowly Lions who have already surrendered 3 TDs to tight ends in 2 weeks.

Jay Cutler said, so far they have just been taking what the defense’s have been giving them, but that will change.

“Take what you can and change the seasons…”

What I was listening to while writing this article:

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