Fantasy Update: Week 4 ~ Tight End Rankings and Start Sit

Posted by Kurt on Sep 30, 2009 in Fantasy Football

Tight end probably ranks next to kicker as most obnoxious position to fill and maintain. Even the best tight ends often score no more than a decent defense or top kicker. In PPR leagues they might do a bit better, but the options are fairly limited. Who wants to spend a high pick on a guy who will produce like a low end number two WR?  Yet every season, guys like Tony Gonzalez, Antonio Gates and Jason Witten start disappearing as early as rounds three and four.

This season through three games, the number one tight end is Dallas Clark with 40 points. This isn’t much of a surprise. He was pegged as a top 5 guy. Due to the unfortunate injury to wide receiver Anthony Gonzalez, Clark has received extra attention so far. He had a monster week two, which accounts for more than half his points. The number two TE, is Philadelphia Eagle, Brent Celek with 37 pts. Based on their early production, both are/were worthy of 4th round picks. After that, the drop off goes down to about 27/28 points for the other top performers so far.

However, 2009 has been an anomaly for tight ends. Eleven already have two TDs. Only 15 running backs and 16 wide receivers have 2 so far, and only one WR (Marques Colston) has three. So TEs are keeping up this year and seem to be proving my theory wrong.

Last season however, after 3 weeks, the top guys were Anthony Fasano, Antonio Gates, Tony Gonzalez and Tony Sheffler. All had about 27 points. After three weeks, only three TEs had two TDs; Gonzo, Sheffler and Fasano. By the end of the season, only a dozen had more than three touchdowns. In 2007, only 15 ended the season with four or more TDs.

Over the last three seasons the average number of tight ends with more than 100 points was six. The average number of WRs over 100 points, 36. The average number of running backs over 100 points, 40.

My point to all this useless trivia is at the end of 2008, of the top tight ends through the first three weeks, only Tony Gonzalez and Antonio Gates ended with over 100 points, and more than 7 TDs. So don’t put a whole lot of stock in what you have seen so far. Clark should have a career year, but if you can get a top RB or WR for him while he’s this hot, do it. He won’t stay on this pace for 13 more games.

Here are the overall stats through three weeks:

Name	Team	G	GS	Targets	Rec	Yrds	TD	F/Pts
1. Dallas Clark	IND	3	3	23	18	284	2	40.4
2. Brent Celek	PHI	3	3	27	22	245	2	36.5
3. John Carlson	SEA	3	3	26	15	169	2	28.9
4. Vernon Davis	SF	3	3	23	14	168	2	28.8
5. Tony Gonzalez	ATL	3	3	18	13	160	2	28.0
6. Owen Daniels	HOU	3	3	23	15	154	2	27.4
7. Kellen Winslow	TB	3	3	27	15	134	2	25.4
8. Chris Cooley	WAS	3	3	22	17	189	1	24.9
9. Jeremy Shockey	NO	3	3	19	14	128	2	24.8
10. Todd Heap	BAL	3	3	16	10	124	2	24.4
11. Ben Watson	NE	3	2	14	10	123	2	24.3
12. Jason Witten	DAL	3	3	23	19	181	1	24.1
13. Antonio Gates	SD	3	3	23	15	225	0	22.5
14. Dante Rosario	CAR	3	0	10	6	89	2	20.9
15. Dustin Keller	NYJ	3	3	16	9	140	1	20.0
16. Marcedes Lewis	JAC	3	3	13	7	103	1	16.3
17. Greg Olsen	CHI	3	3	18	9	93	1	15.3
18. Robert Royal	CLE	3	1	13	6	80	1	14.0
19. Jerramy Stevens	TB	3	3	17	8	71	1	13.1
20. Zach Miller	OAK	3	3	14	8	113	0	11.3
21. Heath Miller	PIT	3	3	18	16	111	0	11.1
22. Chris Baker	NE	3	3	6	4	50	1	11.0
23. Vinsanthe Shiancoe	MIN	3	3	11	6	49	1	10.9
24. Tony Scheffler	DEN	3	1	5	3	45	1	10.5
25. Derek Schouman	BUF	2	2	11	9	103	0	10.3

Notes: GS means games started, and as you can see, a few guys did not start every game. The last guy on the list is lined out due to a season ending injury. One guy who is notably absent from the top 25 is Kevin Boss, who came in at 27th.

For the record, despite Dallas Clark having slightly loftier fantasy points, I feel Brent Celek is the top TE so far. He’s received more targets and had more receptions. He gets week 4 off as does, Tony Gonzalez, and whatever passes for a TE in Arizona and Carolina. (Yeah I know Rosario has 2 TDs. He did the same thing early last season then disappeared on his fantasy owners).

Here are my start/sit suggestions for week 4:

–Start ‘em–

Anthony Fasano, MIA ~ The team that has given up the most fantasy points to tight ends is the Buffalo Bills who have surrendered 246 yards and 4 touchdowns. That’s more than 80 yards and a TD per game. Having Chad Pennington out hurts, but whether Tyler Thigpen or Chad Henne start, they will need a reliable set of hands to catch the ball, and that’s Fasano.

Jermichael Finley, GBP ~ This kid was the big sleeper buzz in the preseason, then real games came and he’s been invisable. This week’s Monday night game against the Vikings could change that. The Vikes have given up the third most yards (222) and are tied for second most TDs (3) to tight ends. If Finley doesn’t do something this week, he never will.

Greg Olsen, CHI ~ A few days ago I did a Blue Light Special article on Olsen. He was supposed to be a top 5 TE this year and was absent (fantasy-wise) the first two games. I predicted a breakout in week 3 and recommended buying him low. He scored last week, and I think he’ll do it again this week against the Detroit Lions who have, like the Vikings, surrendered 3 TDs to TEs.

Vernon Davis, SF ~ Davis finally broke out in week 3, and he faces the St. Louis Rams this week. They’ve given up 2 TDs and about 200 yards to TEs so far.

Kevin Boss, NYG ~ Boss hasn’t done much this season so far. he was expected to be a much bigger part of the Giant’s offense. This week he faces the lowly Kansas City Chiefs. They aren’t very good at covering tight ends.

–Sleeper–

Jonathon Stupar, BUF ~ This is one of those risk/reward plays. In the preseason, Stupar was leading the league among tight ends, then the Bills dropped him. With injuries to Shawn Nelson and Derek Schouman, Stupar is back in the mix. This week he faces a Miami defense that has allowed 320 yards and 2 TDs to tight ends. Of course a big chunk of that was Dallas Clark in week 2. But if you’re in need of a bye week fill in, take a chance.

–Sit em–

John Carlson, SEA ~ The Seahawks go into Colt country this week. Indianapolis has surrendered a paltry 7 receptions for 44 yards to tight ends. Carlson could explode, but do you want to take that chance if you have a secondary option?

Jason Witten, DAL ~ Yeah, I said it. The Denver broncos, like the Colts, have been brutal on tight ends. Three games, 5 receptions and 49 yards. If you have a solid option, play him. Otherwise cross your fingers and hope his probable 3 or 4 receptions wind up in the endzone.

Randy McMichael, STL ~ He’s probably not a starter for most teams anyway, but in deeper leagues he’s playing, and this week he’s facing the 49ers who have surrendered 8 receptions and 68 yards.

Zach Miller, OAK ~ His QB sucks, the team is in chaos, and he faces the Houston Texans, who seem to give up points to runners like there’s no tomorrow, but not to tight ends. Sit him.

Jeremy Shockey, NOS ~ Shockey has been boom or bust through three games. This week should be a bust. He faces a stout Jets defense who gives up very little to anyone, especially tight ends.

What I was listening to while I wrote this article– Adelitas Way: