Kellen Winslow won't be doing a lot of smiling in Seattle.

On May 22nd, the Seahawks forked over a meager 7th-round pick in 2013 that could turn into a 6th rounder depending on Winslow’s performance. But depending on the details of what Winslow exactly has to do, I doubt the Buccaneers luck out and see an extra 6th rounder in next year’s draft.

NFL reporter Adam Caplan Tweeted sentiments from one NFL personnel member, stating:

We just didn’t think he could be more than a rotational player at this point (in his career) after examining his tape and performance.”

Winslow may have not been in the class of “TE1 Material” this fantasy offseason, but his outlook was looking better after the Buccaneers added Vincent Jackson into the fold. But now that Winslow is in the West Coast, his fantasy value is all but shot. There are a couple reasons why Winslow isn’t draftable in the largest of leagues:

As I write this, I really don’t understand why the Seahawks made the move in the first place. They are a run-first oriented offense and barely use their tight ends in the passing game. The team clearly needs playmakers, but they won’t get it in Winslow. Winslow will offer some help here and there. But as far as fantasy value goes, I wouldn’t take Winslow as a TE2 in a 16-team league. His fantasy days are squashed.

According to MyFantasyLeague.com’s ADP rankings, Floyd is currently the 38th receiver off the board, with his average pick currently set between the 110-111th player taken overall. If those numbers continue deep into the Summer, owners who take Floyd late could be getting gold at a bargain.

Malcom Floyd has a good chance at racking up career highs in 2012.

There are a few reasons I like Floyd’s outlook compared to prior years:

Philip Rivers’ health.
Last year Rivers was dealing with some sort of injury, but nobody knew exactly what it was. Because of that, he looked tentative on the field and his numbers were down. But with 2011 behind us, I see Rivers bouncing back. This not only gives Rivers better value, but will help all those around him, including Floyd.

Loss of Vincent Jackson.
Jackson signing in Tampa Bay was the best thing that could have happened for Floyd owners. With all the hype surrounding Robert Meachem, Floyd is slipping under the radar. Antonio Gates figures to lead the team in targets. But with Meachem’s ability to stretch the field, Floyd could also benefit from a lot of underneath targets and red-zone looks. The biggest concern I have is Meachem’s health. He’s had a history of nagging injuries. But if he can stay healthy, the coaching staff believes he can do great things. That will help take some defensive attention off Floyd.

Contract year.
How many times have we seen players play over their heads in a contract year? One of the greatest examples I like to use is when Muhsin Muhammed was in a contract year while with the Panthers in 2004. That year, he topped his career highs in receiving yards (1405), 100-yard games (7) and touchdowns (16). Unfortunately, he went to Chicago and did jack squat, but redraft owners only care about 2012. Floyd could easily be the next guy who plays beyond his abilities in order to land that big contract.

Right now Floyd’s career-high in receptions is 45 (2009). Not only do I see him breaking that, but I predict he will notch his first 1000-yard season. Now don’t think I’m telling you to be an idiot and draft Floyd as a WR2. I don’t think he will be THAT good. But Floyd could easily be a WR3 who is currently being valued as a WR4/WR5.

Winslow - against all odds

He is only 28 years old, but after numerous knee surgeries, his timetable to keep playing at a high level has been truncated – he may only have a few years left. His contract still has three years left on his deal, and is scheduled to make a manageable $3.3 million in 2012.

Whether he is traded or flat-out released remains to be seen. In any case, which teams would be in the market for Winslow’s services?

Houston Texans: They still have the talented Owen Daniels, but they lost a key contributor in Joel Dressen after he signed with the Broncos. Winslow will be able to give the Texans the dual threat at tight end that they would have been lacking coming into this season.

With a new hole at the right tackle position, the Texans could use an extra tight end to help with chips off the line to help make up for the loss of Eric Winston.

Buffalo Bills: Scott Chandler is a nice player, but he is more of a wide receiver in a tight end’s body than anything else. Winslow is a more complete player in terms of being both a blocker and a pass-catcher.

Miami Dolphins: With Ryan Tannehill the favorite to win the job as the starting quarterback, he will need as many weapons at his disposal as possible. With Brandon Marshall now in Chicago, the Dolphins need to add some bodies for Tannehill to work with.

Not to mention, breaking in a rookie quarterback with a reliable safety blanket at the tight end position is always a good idea.

Atlanta Falcons: Tony Gonzalez likely only has one more year left in the tank. Without a proven heir, the Falcons could find themselves in a bind if Gonzalez does in fact retire after this season.

In the meantime, the Falcons can use Winslow and Gonzalez and multiple sets and perhaps limit the amount of snaps Gonzalez is taking, keeping him fresher for the playoffs.

New York Jets: The Jets do have Dustin Keller, but outside of him, there are not reliable targets for Sanchez to throw to at the tight end position. Jeff Cumberland has shown promise as a pass catcher, but he tore his achilles last preseason and is lacks blocking ability.

With Tony Sparano in control of the Jets’ offense, they will look to get back to running the ball out of two-tight end sets.

Arizona Cardinals: The Cardinals have been juggling the tight end spot for some time now. Last offseason, they tried to amend the situation by signing Todd Heap away from the Ravens, but he ultimately missed significant time due to injury.

Winslow presents his own injury risk, but he is also a much better player than anyone else on the Cardinals roster at the position.

Even though the 49ers’ surprising 2011 season fell just short of a Super Bowl, the team’s success was generated in great part due to the effectiveness of the league’s fourth ranked defense (308.1 YPG), which was in turn led by the NFL’s stingiest run stoppers (77.3 YPG). However, San Francisco ranked a paltry 26^th in total offense, despite possessing the league’s eighth best rushing offense (127.8 YPG), due to the limitations in their “aerial attack”. The Niners did not even generate 200 YPG (183), while ranking a lowly 29^th in passing.

So it was hardly astonishing when GM Trent Baalke executed several offseason personnel moves which held the distinct goal of improving that aspect of their roster. First, Randy Moss and Mario Manningham were added in free agency, then speedster A.J. Jenkins became the team’s first round draft selection. But even though San Francisco should generate better numbers in its passing game, that does not necessarily translate into exceptional production for any of their WRs.

Baalke also chose to address the 49ers’ rushing attack, even though Frank Gore ran for more yards than in any season since 2006. He must now return for his eighth season to claim his place within a jam packed stable of backs, along with fellow incumbents Kendall Hunter and Anthony Dixon, after Manningham’s former teammate Brandon Jacobs was acquired in free agency, and LaMichael James was secured with the team’s second round pick.

How will these roster additions impact the fantasy value of the incumbents and newcomers? Here is a breakdown of each RB and WR, that you might be considering on draft day, along with an updated profile of incumbent QB Alex Smith. 

Frank Gore

Gore rushed for 1,211 yards last season, while scoring eight times. However, 634 of those yards were collected in a five game stretch that centered primarily in October. Otherwise, he averaged just 53.6 YPG in his final eight regular season contests. He has also logged 1,526 carries over the past six seasons, and is a strong candidate for a diminished workload this year. He will remain the backfield’s alpha dog, but even though he might remain physically capable of handling the extensive workload that fantasy owner have been accustomed to, it is unlikely that he will be allowed to do so. Not only will it be difficult for him to match his six year average of 254 rushing attempts, and you can plan on him falling short of last season’s 282 carries. Plus, Jacobs (and possibly Dixon) will pilfer many of the scoring opportunities near the goal line. There are too many factors that will prohibit Gore from preserving his role as a top ten back, and he should not be targeted until round five.

Brandon Jacobs

After seven seasons in New York, Jacobs will also be inserted into the deep competition at RB. He has not run for 1000+ yards since 2008, and his production has declined steadily since that time. As has his workload, which has consisted of only 149.5 attempts in the past two years, after surpassing 220 just once in his career. But with 16 TDs in the past two seasons, he remains very capable of finding the end zone. That would be his primary value for the 49ers, if he can demonstrate his usefulness in his battle with other backs for playing time. San Francisco did not make a sizable investment in Jacobs, signing him to just a one-year deal. So he must perform effectively in training camp in order to capture a role with the team. If he remains with the Niners throughout the summer as expected, he is worthy of a late round selection, and Dixon will be the odd man out.         

LaMichael James

James ran for over 5,000 yards (5,082) and 53 TDs in three collegiate seasons, and will bring big play potential to the Niners’ offense. While he is undersized, the comparisons to Darren Sproles have been prevalent, and we have certainly witnessed enough evidence that a smaller back can be difference maker in the NFL. Since the team utilized a lofty draft pick, then signed James to a four-year contract, they obviously envision a role of some magnitude. His greatest challenge, will be capturing meaningful touches amid such a large collection of options. James should eventually secure a role in San Francisco’s offense, although he is only worth a late round flier in standard leagues. However, he does merit a mid to late round selection in dynasty leagues.    

Kendall Hunter

When Gore only generated 148 yards and 2.5 YPC last September, Hunter became a legitimate candidate for a reasonable workload, and an appealing option for fantasy owners. But once Gore underwent his mystical retransformation into an extremely productive back, Hunter’s role was limited, and he finished the year with just 112 attempts, 473 yards, and two scores. Now, he is being forced to fight for playing time. The selection of James poses the largest threat to Hunter, since their roles would be most similar. But that does not necessarily mean that Hunter will be jettisoned from the roster.  Still, the 49ers appear to have categorized Hunter as a “change of pace” back, and there are too many roadblocks that will stifle him this season. Until something changes, there is no reason for you to draft him.

Michael Crabtree

Crabtree was the tenth player selected in the 2009 draft, and the second WR chosen overall. But in his first three seasons, he has averaged just 44 receptions, 747 yards, and four TDs. His value has been surpassed by a number of wideouts from the same draft class, including Hakeem Nicks, Mike Wallace, Jeremy Maclin, Percy Harvin, and Kenny Britt. Rather than waiting to see if Crabtree could overcome his history of injuries, and unimposing performances, Baalke signed Manningham and Moss, then drafted Jenkins. On the plus side, Crabtree won’t even turn 25 until September, established a career high with 72 receptions last season, and his willingness to block will cement him in the Niners’ starting lineup. But there are now too many targets in this offense, to realistically expect considerably better numbers in his fourth year. You should take you cue from the 49ers, and avoid any massive dependence upon Crabtree as a major contributor on your roster this season. He is at best an eighth round selection on draft day.   

Mario Manningham

Not only did Manningham collect an unforgettable reception that ignited the Giants’ game winning drive in Super Bowl XLVI, but his postseason contributions were commendable, as he captured 13 passes for 189 yards, while scoring three times. However, he certainly did not have a great 2011 regular season, managing just 39 catches, 523 yards and four TDs, which essentially was 50% of that production that he generated in 2010 (60 receptions, 944 yards and nine TDs). He also allowed Victor Cruz to vault above him on the Giants’ depth chart, and was downgraded to being the team’s No. 3 WR. That role could easily persist this season with the Niners, as Moss will supply viable competition for the starting slot opposite Crabtree, and Jenkins will become an increasing factor in the 49ers’ offensive strategy. Plus, Manningham just has not proven that he can be entrusted with a consistent starting slot. You should expect similar numbers to last season, and not draft Manningham before round 11.

Randy Moss

It is interesting how much buzz his signing created in some circles, considering how little he has accomplished recently. Moss suited up for three different teams in 2010, and only managed to catch 28 passes. Last year he was absent from the NFL completely. The optimistic belief, is that he will be fully motivated to perform for the Niners, since they possess a realistic chance of appearing in the Super Bowl. Just as he did upon his arrival in New England, before that relationship degenerated. However, he was 30 years old when he first suited up for the Patriots, and it is a stretch to believe that at 35, he can magically turn back the clock to such an enormous degree. Yet, it is possible, that he could secure a starting slot opposite Crabtree, and might even supply Smith with a consistent red zone threat. While that makes him worthy of a 10^th-12^th round selection in many leagues, remember that any production Moss might provide is dependent largely upon his willingness to compete. His contract is merely for one year, contains no guarantees, and San Francisco is under no obligation to utilize him should his commitment waver.

A. J. Jenkins

He collected 146 passes, generated over 2,000 yards, and scored 15 TDs in his final two collegiate seasons. Now, he will now take his place at the back of the WR procession. Jenkins combines size and speed, with a willingness to venture across the middle. And given his status as a first round draft pick, the team will definitely be willing to provide him with the opportunity to perform. But he will face multiple obstacles toward garnering a sizable number of snaps. If a combination of events were to occur… another Crabtree injury, a lack of effort by Moss, and Manningham being unable to locate the same page that Smith is utilizing… then he could find himself making consistent contributions to the 49er passing attack sooner than expected. But unless you are in a dynasty league, invest nothing more than a late round flier on Jenkins during your draft.  

Alex Smith

Since the 49er offense has experienced such a massive amount of roster additions, is it actually possible that Smith’s fantasy value has been enhanced? In a word… no.  At least, not to the degree that you should ponder his selection as anything more than a late round No. 2. And even then, only if you are exceedingly confident that your top signal caller will remain healthy, and under center.  While his efficiency and QB rating improved last season, he still only threw 17 scoring passes, a total that was surpassed by 16 other QBs. And he was just 19th in passing yardage with 3,150. Even though the offense now contains more potential firepower, Smith is not suddenly going to morph into a desired fantasy option. Do yourself a favor, and search elsewhere on draft day.

John Skelton should make it hard on Kevin Kolb for the starting job at quarterback.

Arizona Cardinals: Starting Quarterback (Kevin Kolb/John Skelton)
Kolb should get one more season to prove he isn’t a dud. But even if he makes it through training camp and starts Week One, I don’t see him lasting the entire season, whether it be due to injury or ineptness. Skelton isn’t a world beater, but he still gave the Cardinals a winning record at 5-2 in 7 starts last year while Kolb dealt with concussion-related symptoms. And because of that, Ken Whisenhunt said Skelton has certainly earned a chance to compete for the starting job. With a duo consisting of Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd, whichever player wins the job could have some value as a QB2 in larger leagues.

Cincinnati Bengals: No. 2 Starting Receiver (Mohamed Sanu/Marvin Jones)
With A.J. Green cemented as the team’s No. 1 option, the No. 2 job is vacated after the team opted not to re-sign Jerome Simpson (Vikings). Both Sanu and Jones offer plenty. Jones has solid route-running ability and vertical skills, while Sanu is physical and has solid hands. This could wind up being a committee. But if either of these guys pulls away from the other, they could have value with Green getting most of the attention from defenses.

New England Patriots: Starting Running Back (Stevan Ridley/Shane Vereen/Joseph Addai)
With Benjarvus Green-Ellis the new starter over in Cincinnati, Ridley is the early favorite to start Week One. Vereen could also get a shot after missing time last year due to hamstring problems. Not to mention Vereen was drafted higher in last year’s draft. Most of Addai’s contract isn’t guaranteed. So if he doesn’t bounce back in August and show he still has something left in the tank, the job could wind up being shared between Ridley and Vereen, with Danny Woodhead coming in on certain situations and Addai out of a job. For now, my money is on Ridley, but any one of these guys could have value if all 3 make the 53-man roster.

Miami Dolphins: Starting Quarterback (Ryan Tannehill/David Garrard)
This situation is for those owners who play in 16-team leagues or larger. The debate is ongoing on whether or not Tannehill should start now, or sit behind Garrard early in the season and play if/when Garrard starts slipping. Either way, there are going to be huge growing pains at the position. Expect Reggie Bush and Daniel Thomas to be used heavily until the passing game finds it’s bearings.

Carolina Panthers: No. 2 Starting Receiver (David Gettis/Brandon LaFell)
With many in the front office believing 2012 will be LaFell’s breakout year, I still won’t discount Gettis, who put up 37 catches for 508 yards and 3 scores in 2010. The good news is that Gettis’ ACL injury happened in early August of last year, which puts him in great position to be 100 percent by training camp if he doesn’t suffer any setbacks. Right now the big question is whether Cam Newton can capitalize on his early success to make either of these guys valuable in fantasy leagues. I will say LaFell wins the job, but I wouldn’t be shocked if Gettis pushes him hard for it.

One shining example of this theory is Minnesota Vikings receiver Percy Harvin, who broke out last season—with a rookie quarterback, mind you—posting career numbers in catches (87), yards (967) while tying his record in TDs (6) from his rookie campaign back in 2009.

This theory does, however, come with its fair share of risk involved.

One example that many fantasy owners still seer over is Tennessee Titans WR Kenny Britt, who tore his ACL and MCL in his third year of play (2011) after only three games. Britt had already caught 17 balls for 289 yards and three touchdowns before going down, which prorates out to roughly 90 catches for 1,538 yards and 16 TDs had he played a full 16.

That’s Calvin Johnson territory right there.

We’re going to take a sneak peek at this season’s third-year receiver class, and try to disseminate just who is in line for a breakout season, and why.

So everyone knows, I have left out Steelers receiver Antonio Brown, who is already covered in my last piece: Must Own Receivers Who Aren’t Number One Selections and I have also left out Giants receiver Victor Cruz who already broke out last season—I don’t think you need me to tell you that Cruz is among the elite class of receivers this season.

Let’s take a look.

Dez Bryant, Dallas Cowboys
2011 Stats: 63 catches, 928 yards, 9 TDs
2012 Proj:   75 catches, 1,148 yards, 12TDs

Initial Outlook: Bryant is an above average receiver to begin with, and now he becomes a more featured part of the Cowboys offense with the exodus of Laurent Robinson to Jacksonville. Bryant is also enjoying his first full offseason program since joining the Cowboys which can only add to his potential. There’s very little reason to disbelieve in Bryant’s potential breakout season and you would be wise to target him early before someone else beats you to him.

Mike Williams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2011 Stats: 65 catches, 771 yards, 3 TDs
2012 Proj:   75 catches, 1,098 yards, 11 TDs

Initial Outlook: Think I’m crazy? When opposing teams defend against Tampa Bay’s passing game, who are they going to focus their attention towards; The apparent No. 2 receiver in “regression” (Williams) or one of the most explosive outside receivers in the NFL (Vincent Jackson)? Look, sometimes a receiver is made to look better than perhaps he is simply because of situation, and Williams may wind up being that guy. This isn’t to say that Williams has no talent—that would be silly—but with Jackson on the other side of the field, and Doug Martin in the backfield, it’s gonna be real difficult to dedicate more than one cover man on Williams in any one given game.

Eric Decker, Denver Broncos
2011 Stats: 44 catches, 612 yards, 8 TDs
2012 Proj:  65 catches, 988 yards, 12 TDs

Initial Outlook: The Broncos discovered Decker was just as valuable in the short passing game as he was in the vertical attack in 2011. Because of which, Decker was awarded around 30 routes per game in 2011; a number that is supposed to increase significantly in 2012. Decker would’ve had a much better season last year if the Broncos didn’t run the ball 50 percent of the time, but you can bet that will not be the case this season with Peyton Manning under center—catch my drift?

David Nelson, Buffalo Bills
2011 Stats: 61 catches, 658 yards, 5 TDs
2012 Proj:   80 catches, 1,001 yards, 9 TDs

Initial Outlook: Nelson is the sort of player who could be viewed more as a PPR option than a Standard format one simply because Nelson’s primary role was a possession receiver, but let’s not discount his potential to hold more value in other formats this upcoming season. Stevie Johnson will undoubtedly attract more defensive attention after posting career numbers in 2011 while Fred Jackson returns to hopefully finish what he started in 2011. If Donald Jones is as serviceable as he was in 2011, the slot will simply be unmanned from a defensive standpoint. Another year under his belt, and worlds of opportunities—yup, I smell a breakout.

For more information on third-year receivers, check Greg Brosh’s Third-Year Receivers To Target. These articles will become increasingly popular in the coming months, so make sure you check back regularly, and take in as much information as possible :)

The fevered pitch that comes with the anticipation of a new fantasy football season is almost as paramount as the apparent state of awe most television viewers are currently in as they wait for the Desperate Housewives Wives series finale. With that anticipation, however, comes the daunting task of not only getting ramped up for a new season, but also having the fortitude to rifle through the myriad of articles that offer keen advice.

Like this one.

With that said, we all know that 2012 fantasy football mock drafts and ADP info are in full swing  because fantasy football owners are trying to not only get a leg up on what they are going to do on actual draft day, but also trying to figure out some sort of game plan for whom they are going to consider drafting.

Ireland fantasy football owners, I’m looking your way!

I thought I would do a little piece for everyone that highlights a few underrated receivers you may want to consider since the receivers are the real money-shot outside of that marquee quarterback leading your hopeful “tour de force”.

Ready?

Nate Washington, Tennessee Titans:

Nate Washington had a career year last year filling in for injured receiver Kenny Britt. The man posted career numbers in receptions (74), receiving yards (1,023) and TDs (7).

The most current news out of the smoky mountains is that Kenny Britt may need additional surgery. While the mentioned procedure would be “comparatively minor” to his surgery that repaired a torn ACL and MCL, it will still be left in the air as to whether or not Britt will be able to even return at full strength.

Washington proved that he deserves more time on the field, and  the Titans now know what the kid is capable of. If they become weary of Britt’s recovery, or if Britt doesn’t respond well in the coming months, Washington would obviously be the go to guy. If Britt does return, however, Washington is still going to be on the field. Britt’s return could cause defenses to pay more attention to him than anybody else—a situation that could still add tremendous value to Washington.

Washington has a current ADP of 169.23 among receivers which potentially makes him not only a solid value pick, but a borderline sleeper candidate regardless of what he did last season.

Antonio Brown, Pittsburgh Steelers

Seeing a trend yet? I am not only targeting players who have potential sleeper tags attached to their rumps, I am also targeting players who have such a high ceiling, it’s really difficult to ignore once you look up.

Here’s a quick overview.

The Steelers are trying like hell to get Mike Wallace signed. But they also have the ability to cut his salary from $2.7 million to $577,500 if he hasn’t signed by June 15 which could make for a very angry receiver who thinks he is worth a ton of money—which he appears to be so.

Antonio Brown, on the other hand, still isn’t getting the sort of attention from fantasy owners he himself deserves, especially after catching 69 balls for 1,108 yard and 2 TDs.

The problem here is that everyone is looking at his 2 TDs and thinking  that’s the ceiling for Brown, when in fact that simply isn’t the case.

Mike Wallace is sure to get his deal which means the Steelers will have their “number one” deep-threat target on the field for16 games, which also means Brown is potentially in-line to see more single coverage just as he did in 2011, in an offense that is expected to be primarily pass-first in 2012.

In other words, an extreme value pick for a guy who is currently averaging out as a sixth to seventh round pick in most draft formats (Draftcal.com)

Randall Cobb, Green Bay Packers

Consider this.

1. Randall Cobb was only on the field 30.8 percent of the Green Bay Packers offensive snaps and still managed  to haul in 25 catches for 375 yards and a TD.

2. While Donald Driver is expected to return to Green Bay (no guarantees, mind you) his role is expected to diminish ever-so-slightly, to give way for the young and explosive Cobb.

3. The Packers DO NOT look away from high end talent, lending favor to the notion that Cobb could see a bigger role than many expect.

Look, the Packers are going to find a way to get Cobb more offensive snaps in 2012 than he had in 2011, and in an already pass-first offense led by Aaron Rodgers, that just screams potential. While I can’t see him being a guy you would draft higher than say fifth or sixth round, I can see this guy being one player you should not ignore, simply because of the potential alone.

If you can scoop him up in the fifth or sixth (PPR and Standard) then do so, and if he is available in re-draft, don’t be spooked if Driver returns because it may not hinder his ceiling as much as people will initially think.

Honorable Mentions:

• Leonard Hankerson, Washington Redskins: New QB could mean greater value for a back-end draft selection
• Doug Baldwin, Seattle Seahawks: Expected to begin the season as the number three receiver, but it is worth noting that he was on pace with Larry Fitzgerald from a production standpoint, and he did lead the Seattle receivers in receiving.
• Tommy Streeter, Baltimore Ravens: At 6’5″, 219 the Ravens could utilize Streeter’s presence in red-zone packages and even a possible additional deep-threat option, according to carrollcountytimes.com
• Danny Coale, Dallas Cowboys: Laurent Robinson is gone which opens up a vacant spot for WR3….think about, guys.
• Demaryius Thomas, Denver Broncos: The youngster is simply bound for a breakout season, especially with Peyton Manning under center.