J-E-T-S Running Back LT

The New York Jets agreed to a two-year deal with former San Diego Chargers RB LaDainian Tomlinson on Sunday.

Tomlinson, a certain Hall of Fame back who lost carries (and games) to injury over the past couple seasons, brings a veteran to the Jets backfield to replace the departed Thomas Jones (who signed with the Kansas City Chiefs).

What does this mean to fantasy owners?

It clearly labels Shonn Greene the future feature back in New York, but the terms of the deal indicate that the majority of the carries will likely go to Tomlinson. Now, whether that majority is 70 percent or 51 is yet to be determined, but Tomlinson brings an exceptional amount of experience and skill to the Jets backfield.

Greene racked up 540 yards on 108 carries in 2009, scoring just two touchdowns in a backup role behind Jones. Tomlinson had 730 yards on 223 carries with 12 touchdowns in San Diego. The Jets still have a solid offensive line in place, and will look to replace Jones’ 331 carries, 1,402 yards and 14 touchdowns from some combination of these two backs. The combination of Greene and Tomlinson could match the Jets’ 2009 total of over 1,900 yards again in 2010.

This move should increase the values or Tomlinson, Greene and quarterback Mark Sanchez for 2010.

Rocky Mountain... High?

On Sunday, the Cleveland Browns dealt quarterback/”hotty” Brady Quinn to the Denver Broncos for fullback Peyton Hillis, a sixth-round pick in 2011 and a conditional pick in 2012.

Earlier this week, the Browns traded for quarterback Seneca Wallace from Seattle and signed former Carolina signal caller Jake Delhomme. They also released former Pro Bowler Derek Anderson as well.

The fallout from this deal is very clear for the Browns, and the polar opposite for Denver.

In Cleveland, it now appears that Delhomme is their starting quarterback. The Browns will likely address the position now through the draft, but considering the $7 million guaranteed that the Browns handed Delhomme and the subsequent house-cleaning by new President Mike Holmgren, it looks like Delhomme’s going to be under center for them in 2010.

In Denver… wow.

Quinn joins restricted free agent Kyle Orton and Chris Simms in the competition to be under center for the Broncos. Simms is most likely to be the odd man out, but the competition between Orton and Quinn looks a lot like it could be the same situation the Browns had last year. Quinn has all the hype and pedigree; Orton all the results.

And then there’s the potential that whomever wins the job won’t have Brandon Marshall to catch the ball any more, too.

Keep an eye on the quarterback situation in Denver throughout the spring and summer. This will undoubtedly be an interesting competition.

For more Quarterback Rankings, check out our Re-Draft and Dynasty Rankings.

On Sunday, the Chicago Blackhawks suffered what could become a devastating injury on their blue line when Brian Campbell was hit from behind by Alex Ovechkin early in the first period. Campbell remained on the ice for some time before being helped to the dressing room.

Ovechkin received a five minute penalty for boarding and his fourth game misconduct of the season for the hit. Washington came back to win the game with three goals in the third period and one in overtime, stealing two points from the Blackhawks 4-3.

The loss of Campbell for any amount of time could be devastating to the Blackhawks, and could hurt your fantasy team even if you don’t own him.

Campbell had been playing at a high level all season, averaging 23:30 on ice (third on the Blackhawks, two seconds behind Brent Seabrook for second) and had scored 38 points (7 G, 31 A). His +17 rating was one of the best of his career, and ranks among the best for defensemen in the NHL.

Taking Campbell off your fantasy roster for some time will likely mean you will need to, somehow, replace one of your top two defensemen. That’s not likely going to happen easily, sorry to say. At this point in the season, finding a sleeper to give you the production a player like Campbell has all season is hard to do. For a few ideas, check out our Defense Rankings.

However, the indirect impact could hammer owners of other Blackhawks’ defensemen.

Duncan Keith played over 34 minutes on Sunday, and Seabrook has also been putting in too many minutes lately. Considering that Kim Johnsson, acquired from Minnesota before the Olympics, also missed Sunday’s game with an upper body injury, the Hawks could be working with a seriously thin blue line against some good offensive teams in the next week. Wednesday Chicago visits the Anaheim Ducks before travelling to the LA Kings and Phoenix Coyotes.

Campbell has already been ruled out for the three-game trip, according to Chicago coach Joel Quenneville after the game Sunday.

This means that either Jordan Hendry and Brent Sopelwill continue to see more minutes than normal (or comfortable for Chicago fans), or the Blackhawks might need to consider bringing a defenseman up from Rockford. The most likely candidate would be Nick Boynton, acquired in a minor deal at the trade deadline.

Adding a player like Boynton presents other issues for the Blackhawks. With centers Dave Bolland and Adam Burishcoming back from long-term injuries, the Hawks are now scratching two healthy forwards for every game. Adding another defenseman to the roster puts the Blackhawks not only at their maximum number of players on the active roster (potentially scratching three per game), but also put them dangerously close to the salary cap.

How the entire situation shakes down in Chicago could be a mess.

However, fantasy owners should be carefully watching a number of pieces to this puzzle.

First, watch for a formal announcement on Campbell’s injury (we’ll update you here on FantasyKnuckleheads when that happens).

Secondly, owners of Keith, Seabrook, and Niklas Hjalmarssonshould do what the Blackhawks cannot afford to do and consider sitting them. These three will be playing a lot of heavy minutes and they’ve already shown signs of fatigue.

Third, if you own either Cristobal Huet or Antti Niemi, make sure you’re heavily medicated.

Overall, this injury could be a deal-breaker for the Blackhawks and your fantasy team in the playoffs.

If you didn’t know we have an entire fantasy baseball section and fantasy baseball RSS feed. We cover fantasy baseball rankings, fantasy baseball sleepers, and almost everyday we’ll bring you some fantasy baseball news and advice.

Want to join a highly competitive fantasy baseball league? Compete against the fantasy knuckleheads staff by joining our league: League ID: 432046 League Password: knuckleheads When you join post a message on the message board letting us know you’re serious. Draft is 11:15 PST / 2:15 EST on Sunday March 21.

We have it set up as an auction draft. You are set up with $260 and you need to bid accordingly on players. Free agents are handled with FAAB. You have $100 to spend the entire season. Your team will have 2 Catchers, 1 1B, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 SS, 1 Corner Infielder, 1 Middle Infielder, 5 OF, 2 DH, 9 Pitchers and 5 bench players.

Many, including me, annually include Dan Uggla on their “Do Not Touch Even if 150% Desperate” list in preparation for their fantasy drafts, however, I have recently come to the conclusion that Uggla really does deserve more love than he gets in fantasy baseball, and I’m going to show you why.

Despite his routine low batting averages, Uggla boasts a considerable amount of power in his bat.

First, let’s look at the player. Since his arrival in 2006, Uggla has only hit less than 30 Home Runs once, and that was when he hit 27 homers in that breakout ‘06 season. Uggla’s 84 runs in 2009 set a new career low, and also marked the first time that Uggla scored less than 90 runs in a season. He’s been just as dependable in the RBI department, compiling totals of 90, 88, 92, and 90 in his four seasons.

Yes, his low batting average is a legitimate cause for concern for those in leagues which place an emphasis on batting average, but judging by his abnormally low .274 BABIP in 2009, it is reasonable to expect Uggla to bump his average back into the .250-.270 range with more luck in his favor in 2010.

In addition, for leagues that place a value on walks or total bases, it would be important to know that Uggla has drawn more walks each year since his arrival in the Bigs. After his 48-walk rookie season, Uggla has trended upward by raising his walk totals to 68, 77, and 92 in the previous three seasons.

Even better, he isn’t going to kill you with 200+ strikeouts like Mark Reynolds or Chris Davis. Uggla’s career high for strikeouts was 171 in 2008, and despite the twenty-point dip in his batting average from the previous season, he was able to trim his strikeout total to 150 last year.

So here we have a guy who, since his four years of being called up, has averaged just above 30 Home Runs, 90 RBI, and over 99 Runs, plus the increasing ability to draw walks, who won’t kill you with his strikeouts, the kind of production that typically flies off the board in the first three or four rounds of the draft.

Yet, per ESPN.com, Uggla is still the 138th overall-ranked Fantasy player, around the likes of Nolan Reimold, Chris Davis, Brad Hawpe, Chipper Jones, and Alexei Ramirez; all of whom have some decent upside of their own, but aren’t as likely to come close to Uggla’s power production (although Davis may have a chance to).

Compared to just his fellow second basemen, Uggla’s name comes up at 12th on ESPN’s rankings at the position. Let’s see how the four guys above him on the list did in ‘09 compared to Uggla:

• 8): Aaron Hill: (.286, 36 HR, 108 RBI, 103 R, 6 SB)
• 9): Howie Kendrick: (.291, 10 HR, 61 RBI, 61 R, 11 SB)
• 10): Jose Lopez: (.272, 25 HR, 96 RBI, 69 R, 3 SB)
• 11): Asdrubal Cabrera: (.308, 6 HR, 68 RBI, 81 R, 17 SB)
• 12) Uggla: (.243, 31 HR, 90 RBI, 84 R, 2 SP)
  

  Dan Uggla, who has averaged 30 home runs per year since his '06 call-up, enjoys a draft stock significantly lower than it should be.

Uggla is a 30 Home-Run talent buried in the second base ratings under guys who are undeniably talented, yet merely good for low-to-mid teens in the Home Run and Steals departments, and he’s mostly left untouched because of his ugly batting average. And in Fantasy Baseball, 30 Home Runs is a big thing.

As I already mentioned, Uggla has been a steady 30 Home Run guy for a few years now, but unlike Alex Rodriguez, Justin Morneau, and Chase Utley–who all hit less (or in Utley’s case, as many) dingers than Uggla in 2009–Uggla can be had near or after the tenth round of the draft.

These 30 Home Run guys come at a premium in Fantasy leagues, and, not surprisingly, nearly all of the (fittingly) 30 Major Leaguers who hit 30 Home Runs last year were on ESPN’s top 100 fantasy rankings. The only two not in the top 100 were Dan Uggla and Russell Branyan, while 18 of the 30-Home Run hitters from 2009 were among ESPN’s top 50 fantasy players.

Bottom line: give Uggla a look at second base. His batting average isn’t anything to get excited about, but he produces anything near his career averages to this point, it will be more than enough to make you forget about a .250 batting averages.

However, before getting too excited over Uggla, by no means am I saying draft him before Utley, Kinsler, Pedroia, Cano, Roberts, or Phillips, but, if you miss out on the elite guys at second, don’t be afraid to take the chance on Uggla.

You’ll probably get heckled by your friends at the draft for it, but come baseball season you’ll be able to sit back and enjoy the ride while he who banks on Ian Stewart, Placido Polanco, or Scott Sizemore will probably be desperately searching for a replacement.

Power vs. Speed...

Certain debates rage every season in fantasy baseball. Who belongs in the first round, who doesn’t, and why. When to draft a Catcher, Closer, etc. One argument that seems to rage every season is Power vs. Speed. Since it takes more than one opinion to form a viable debate, Ray Tannock will join me this week as we argue power vs. speed in the early rounds of your 2010 draft.

First it’s important to note that every league is different, and you should take into account league settings, and size. For the purposes of this debate we are looking at standard 5×5 roto and head to head leagues with 10 to 12 teams.

Power = Home Runs and RBIs

Speed = Stolen Bases and Runs

In 2009, both Home Run totals and Stolen Base totals were up around the league. Dingers jumped up 3.3%, eclipsing the 5000 mark (5,042) for the first time since 2006, while bag thefts went up 6.1% over 2008 totals, for 2,970 swipes. The second highest total of the decade.

So the question remains, do you draft power or speed in the early rounds?

Rustyn Rose ~ POWER

Over the last decade the MLB is averaging 5,215 home runs each season, while averaging 2,796 stolen bases. So despite the rise in stolen bases, on average, there are still 46% more home runs hit each year over bags swiped. This means stolen bases are more scarce, and therefore more valuable, correct?

Not so fast. First the argument that stolen bases equals more runs is not accurate. In fact more Home Runs equal more RBIs AND more runs. So power gives you three of your four stats.

Some statistics:

Number of players who hit 30 or more home runs in 2009: 30

Number of players who had 100 or more RBI’s in 2009: 27

Number of players who hit 30 or more steals in 2009: 17

Number of players who had 100 or more runs in 2009: 22

The natural assumption would be that of those 17, 30+ base stealers, most if not all of them would hit the 100 run mark as well. Not true. In fact, only five of the 17 managed that feat; Ian Kinsler, Jimmy Rollins, Derek Jeter, Chone Figgins and Brian Roberts. The first two are also known for their power, and none of them are deserving of first round consideration. Even Carl Crawford, who is considered a first round pick by many, didn’t hit 100 runs (96) despite stealing 60 bases.

For the power guys, 19 of the 30 big home run hitters, had 100 RBIs or more. Nine of those guys also had 100 or more runs. Names like Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, Ryan Howard, Evan Longoria, Mark Teixeira… Are you seeing a pattern? These are all guys being taken in the first or second round in most drafts.

There are a lot of guys who get mainly speed and not much else; guys like Michael Bourn, Rajai Davis, Nyjer Morgan and Juan Pierre. Why pay high-end prices, for mid-round pick-ups?

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

In the end it seems more prudent to grab your power bats early and find your speed later. There is a ton of speed in the outfield this season. There were 46 players with 20 or more stolen bases in 2009, 58 with 15+ and 99 total players with 10 or more. Spread the spread around and consolidate that power. Do not be the guy who snags Carl Crawford in the first round, or Jacoby Ellsbury or Ian Kinsler in the second or third. These guys will not help you win your league taking them that early. Especially Ellsbury and Kinsler. Ellsbury is highly over-inflated for his numbers, and Kinsler is Brian Roberts 2-3 rounds earlier.

One final thought; speedsters are more prone to injury than power bats. More ligaments involved, more athleticism on display, more chance of pulling a hamstring or worse sliding into a base.

Ray Tannock ~ SPEED

Paying for a mid-round pick-up at a high-end price seems to be a useless endeavor until you come to terms with two facts:

1. Paying a hefty price tag in scarcity, leaves all other options flat; a breeding ground for a one dimensional team. All power, no substance.
2. Sacrificing big name/big bat guys early, opens up the availability to grab other high-end guys while drafting for speed.

The best thing about this debate is the battlefield implications akin to Rommel vs. Patton.

Pick your poison

Stats are a great piece of the puzzle, but they are just that: a piece of the puzzle. And without an actual strategy built on numerous variables, you run the risk of leaving your team vulnerable.

Guys such as Michael Bourne, Jacoby Ellsbury, Carl Crawford, and Jimmy Rollins are obviously not known for their sheer power, but together these guys also provide settlement in multiple categories very similar to power hitters.

Power hitters can knock in RBIs, but they are just as prone to hitting single home runs as well, but what about those guys who are considered a mid-rounder or even a late–rounder; are you going to be that guy who passes on a player due to a stigma?

Never judge a book by its cover.

Bobby Abreu is a guy who has consistently hit—for 7 years might I add—100+ RBIs with considerable numbers in runs scored, BA, and respectable homerun totals. Will he be a first round consideration? Heck no. Will he be there later on? More than likely yes.

Ah, but there is a trick to every strategy, isn’t there?

While guys who draft for power are busy plucking the board dry of the home run producers early and coming around the back end for speed later, guys who draft for speed are pulling out there secret complimentary weapon; a sometimes devastating blow:

Pitchers!

Sure, Albert Pujols might be gone, but Tim Lincecum may not. Jonathan Papelbon may not. Drafting for speed does require that you supplement your strategy with quality heat hurlers that can erase the teams that are built on power, so it wouldn’t be uncustomary to draft a quality closer somewhere between the 10th and 13th rounds, for instance.

Plus, adding both speed and quality pitching early gives you a one two punch that is more valuable than just power alone, since you are now adding in ERA, WHIP, Saves,and strikes to the mix.

In essence, you win the battle of category just slightly if you do things right.

In the end, remember one other tiny tidbit about baseball in general. In the early months (April and May) the ball doesn’t take flight as well as the summer months thanks to the weather. This keeps power numbers from blooming until at least the early to mid summer months, but speed and quality pitching is a year round aspect you can rely on.

Don’t be afraid to think outside the box from traditional cookie cutter fantasy philosophies, and don’t be afraid to be that guy who does, in fact, take Carl Crawford in the first round.

After all, in fantasy baseball, consistency is always best.

There will always be power hitters out there, just not a lot of guys who hit 40+ home runs. But two guys who hit 20+ home runs with 100+ RBI and 25 to 30+SB with a set of excellent pitchers is—in this writer’s opinion and experience—far more valuable than early flashy power.

So, where do you the fan and owner stand in one of the all-time greatest fantasy debates? Let us know below.

These “versus” pieces are brought to you by Ray and Rustyn; two guys who make it a living bringing you the best in The Gentleman’s Argument while sipping Mai Tais in drag!

Closer Rankings, Sholty’s Drafting Tips, 1B Rankings, 2B Rankings, Catcher Rankings, OF Rankings, Assume the Position, 5 Guys To Avoid Like The Plague, The Grady Sizemore Debate

Need more fantasy? NFL – NBA – NHL.

Lance Berkman is scheduled to have surgery on his left knee Saturday and while his projected recovery time is said to be only two weeks, a month or longer is more likely; ruining any fantasy value for the 34 year old.

Berkman is a very high mileage player, and this isn’t the first time he has had problems with that particular knee, so as you trudge forward it would be wise to steer clear of Berkman for the remainder.

2009 saw a serious decline in his production, and the Astros rely heavily on Berkman to keep them in games, so this development doesn’t just affect the hitter’s value, but also the value of the Astros’ pitchers.

Without their biggest bat, it will be even more difficult to secure wins, and although the strikes will still be there, the win category could be MIA in the Houston bullpen this year; especially in the early goings.

Berkman’s batted .274/.399/.509 with a OPS of .907 while hitting 25 HRs, 80 RBIs, 31 DBLs, and 7 SB.

Fantasy owners are up in the air about Sizemore in 2010

Grady Sizemore was fast becoming a reliable fantasy stud prior to last season’s injury marred debacle. One has to wonder, with the Cleveland Indians continuing to retool and Sizemore only a few months removed from two different surgeries, which Grady will fantasy owners be getting with their draft pick. More important, when should they consider picking him up?

As we often do, my colleague Ray Tannock and I will look at both sides of this argument, and let you decide for yourself.

Ray’s Opinion

Grady Sizemore’s 2009 season is the centerpiece in an ongoing debate over the outfielder’s fantasy worth. For some, they are true believers that he will once again be a dominate fantasy option, but for the naysayers, it is believed that his injury-riddled 2009 season severely takes away from his overall potential value.

Sizemore, over his career, has been known to be a 30/30 player good for not only dingers and stolen bases, but also doubles. His Ratio Batting Chart says it all.

But what it doesn’t suggest is whether or not Sizemore is really worth as much as he is being touted.

In fantasy baseball, there are a lot of people who get excited over great stats and projections without realizing what could be at stake, for a player who has been injured.

And stats only tell half the story.

An elbow injury and a hernia injury—both of which resulted in surgery—are nothing to forget. These types of injuries tend to creep back into a players career, elbows especially, which could leave your confident draft pick in utter ruination.

Does Sizemore have the capability of being a 20/20 or even 30/30 player? Well more so 20/20, but yes.

But an equally good question to keep in mind is this:

Don’t hernias and elbow injuries directly affect stolen base counts and power; two categories that define Sizemore’s fantasy worth? Yes, yes they do, which is a big concern.

So why waste a pick that has a surmountable amount of risk attached to it; especially at a position as deep as the outfield?

Perhaps you are afraid you’ll miss out on a comeback bid. Or perhaps you really believe in the 27 year old, like my colleague Rustyn Rose.

Either way, keep in mind one thing: The click of the mouse is a permanent one. And if you’re unsure of what to do, I would wager to say you already subconsciously decided. Sizemore is more of a gamble than I think he will be worth.

On your draft day, make you’re click count. No regrets, limited risk.

Rustyn’s Opinion

My colleague has taken the cautious route with Sizemore in 2010 where I see 2009 as more of an anomaly than a precedent.

Sizemore has been fairly consistent over the years, and prior to his injury marred 2009 season, where he missed 56 games, he hit 33 HRs, stole 38 bases, and scored 101 runs in 2008. Over his first four full seasons he averaged 116 Runs, 27 HRs, 81 RBIs, 29 SBs and a .281 batting average. That’s good for a late first round, early second round pick in most drafts.

The concerns of course are his health and the ever devolving talent pool surrounding him. Both are fair concerns, but if you consider the time he missed and extrapolate what his finals numbers would have been over a full season in 2009, they were not far off his average numbers. His current ADP, based on ESPN is 31st, or the beginning of the fourth round. If Sizemore is still there with your third pick, you’d be a fool not to roll those dice, and you could even feel good taking him as early as late in the second round. Matt Kemp is putting up numbers historically similar to Sizemore and he’s a mid-first round pick.

I agree with Ray that stats only tell half the story, but history has to play a sizable role too, and history is on Sizemore’s side. He’s also at that magical age of production, 27. Sizemore really does matter!

Closer Rankings, Sholty’s Drafting Tips, 1B Rankings, 2B Rankings, Catcher Rankings, OF Rankings, Assume the Position, 5 Guys To Avoid Like The Plague

Need more fantasy? NFL – NBA – NHL.

As many players begin sitting down to rest for the playoffs, and others are dropping from injuries, finding a hot hand could be the difference between handing the league championship to your buddy or waiting three days for the bank to clear the check.

One player that might be a difference maker for your team is Marcus Thornton.

Thornton, the 13th pick of the 2nd round in 2009, has quietly built a decent resume in his rookie season. He’s averaging 12.8 ppg despite only averaging 22 minutes per game, and he’s shooting .399 from downtown. But lately, Thornton has been on fire.

In his last five games, Thornton has averaged 22.2 ppg and 4.4 rpg, hitting 50 percent (13-26) of this three-point attempts.

The Hornets are playing without both Chris Paul and Peja Stojakovic, and Thornton has picked up the slack in the scoring sheet.

Luol Deng and Joakim Noah are two hurting Bulls.

From a distance, and even in many ways from up close, it appears that the Chicago Bulls are closing up shop for the season and starting to look at their future.

Joakim Noah has foot issues that could have him shut down for most, if not all, of the remaining regular season games.

Luol Deng is also taking some time off to rest bad knees and, now, a strained calf.

Taj Gibson, the Bulls’ surprising rookie power forward who has played well this year, is also suffering from foot issues and, despite playing through pain, could miss action moving forward.

Kirk Hinrich has dealt with sprained ankles lately, at one point rolling both ankles in the same game.

And now on March 11, superstar guard Derrick Rose took a hard hit from Dwight Howard of the Orlando Magic and suffered a sprained wrist.

Is there anyone left to play for Bulls’ coach Vinny Del Negro?

The Bulls had lost five straight entering the Magic game that, with Rose leaving early, became an exhibition at the expense of the United Center fans. In their previous 11 games, the Bulls had only held an opponent under 100 points in two games; Chicago is allowing an average of 108 points per game in that stretch.

Making matters worse, despite leading the league in rebounding at 44.7 boards per night, over 57 percent of those rebounds come from Noah (11.4), Deng (7.3) and Gibson (7). If those three leave the lineup, there isn’t a person in uniform averaging more than six boards a night.

Can it get worse? The Bulls are averaging 97.4 points per game of offense. If the assumption is that Rose’s sprained wrist will cost him game time, Noah’s already out and Deng is questionable for every game, those three account for over 50 percent of the Bulls’ scoring this year.

If someone added water and a pool at the end, this slide might become fun to watch!

With the exception of Rose, it’s probably time to drop any Bulls on your roster. Brad Miller hasn’t picked up any statistical benefits from Noah’s missed time; Hakim Warrick has seen some marginal benefit but hasn’t seen enough playing time to put up bigger numbers.

Considering any player of fantasy relevance is hurting, it might be wise to look elsewhere for help at this point in the season. For some potential sleepers of value, check out our  Point Guard,  Shooting Guard, Small Forward and Power Forward Power Rankings.

If you haven’t heard the name Jason Heyward yet, you’re clearly not reading or watching any coverage of 2010 Spring Training.

Heyward has been the offensive story of Spring Training so far (with all due respect to Milton Bradley, he’s not the offensive we’re talking about here). Heyward is the unanimously named number one prospect in baseball, even ahead of Washington’s Stephen Strasburg. He doesn’t turn 21 until early August, but he might be an impact fantasy player you should seriously consider this year.

The only problem with considering Heyward is when to select a rookie phenom.

First, let’s talk about what Heyward brings to the table for the Atlanta Braves.

MLB.com says, “He’s got great bat speed, with the ability to hit for average and power. He has an excellent knowledge of the strike zone. He’s got a plus arm from the outfield, runs well and is an excellent base-runner.”

ESPN’s Keith Law says, “Heyward will be a middle-of-the-order bat with power and patience while playing above-average defense in right with a plus arm. He has an advanced approach at the plate… strong, quick wrists that let him commit later to pitches while still driving the ball to all fields. He gets good leverage in his swing and has plenty of loft to eventually produce 30-plus homers a year, and so far hasn’t shown any tendency to expand the zone because he’s trying too hard to hit for power.”

Baseball America says, “ Jason Heyward, Baseball America’s Minor League Player of the Year, will give the lineup a major jolt when he arrives in 2010.” BA also put Heyward on the cover of their 2010 Top 100 Prospect issue.

The guy can hit. Last year in Double-A, and again we must emphasize that he was only 19 until August, Heyward put up exceptional numbers in only 362 at bats. He hit 16 home runs, drove in 63 and stole 10 bases in 99 games. Another great plus, which Law mentions, is his eye; he walked as many times (51) as he struck out last year. His .402 OBP is exceptional, but his .963 OPS is what jumps off the page.

Right now, it appears Heyward has the inside track on the starting spot in right field to begin Bobby Cox’s final season in Atlanta, and his left-handed bat could find a comfortable spot somewhere around Chipper Jones and Troy Glaus in the middle of the Braves’ batting order. If he can replicate the 450-foot home run he hit early in Spring Training in Atlanta, and continues to draw comparisons to a young Ken Griffey, Jr,  he’ll be a name you see as much on SportsCenter as anyone in the game. This puts Jason Heyward up there with our top fantasy baseball sleepers.

Now that devil’s advocate argument: how much stock can you put in a kid?

Setting expectations for Heyward to become the .300-35-100 guy analysts say he will eventually be would be naive. Every rookie has hot and cold stretches, and the biggest adjustment that young hitters need to make comes after there’s an established major league scouting report on him; pitchers will adjust to him, and then he’ll need to show what he’s worth.

The Braves should have a pretty decent batting order this year, with Jones and Glaus headlining a group that includes Nate McLouth, Brian McCann, Melky Cabrera and Yunel Escobar. Don’t buy into what you see in Spring Training too much, but if you’re looking for a fourth outfielder late, Heyward is a worthy gamble. He has the greatest upside of any rookie coming out of Spring Training this year, and his position in a veteran lineup should help him grow into a major league powerhouse.