It takes true dedication to sniff out the sleepers ready to make an impact on your fantasy team.

Rip Van Winkle was a "sleeper" for twenty straight years. Hey...that reminds me of Jeremy Hermida!

What makes a player a sleeper? Well I’ll give you my personal definition. A sleeper is a player that in unexpected to make any type of big impact in fantasy only to surprise everyone…well everyone except for you, the loyal reader here at Fantasy Knuckleheads!

These sleepers are guys who will be available to you much later in drafts (Round 15+) and they will give you stats you’d expect from guys being drafted in the first ten rounds. Let me indulge you:

Edwin Jackson SP ARI – Edwin Jackson has the stuff to be a complete fantasy stud, but the problem is that he’s never put it together for one complete season. Last season was definitely a breakout season for him, but he has such a higher ceiling than that. Now that he’s moved to Arizona, he will be pitching with top-shelf names like Dan Haren and Brandon Webb. He will feed off their success and find his own. I expect an ERA closer to 3.20 for him with 200K, 60 BB and a 1.24 WHIP. He is going insanely late in drafts this year considering he has the second highest velocity on his heater. Only Justin Verlander threw his fastball faster on average than Jackson last year.

How does a baseball player lose 40 pounds? Ask Geovany Soto...

Jay Bruce OF CIN – It might have taken a little longer than people expected, but Jay Bruce is going to live up to the hype finally this season. It was only a few years ago when people were looking at Justin Morneau as somewhat of a bust, and look what he turned into! Jay Bruce is a natural talent, and it is only time before that talent surfaces. At Bruce’s price tag this year, don’t you think it’s well worth it to take a chance on him?

Geovany Soto C ChC – I’m very bullish on Soto this season. Last year he was the reigning rookie of the year and his success seemed to get to his head a little. He came to camp overweight and never found success all season. He is 40 pounds lighter this season and already mashing the ball in spring training. He’s a steal in the 13th round when you consider McCann and Wieters are going almost ten rounds sooner. Expect a return to form with a .280 avg, 20 HR and 80-90 RBI.

Stephen Drew SS ARI -  Stephen Drew is about to retake his spot in the top 10 SS this season. He’s obviously talented enough to belong there, but something derailed his season last year and he never quite got his swing back. We already know he has the talent to hit 20+ HR, but what astonishes me is that he hit 12 triples last season despite being in a down year. With that kind of speed, don’t be surprised if he actually steals 15+ bases. It’s now or never for Drew, and I’m banking on now.

Corey Hart OF MIL – Corey Hart practically dropped off the face of the earth last season. He only played 115 games, but I’m willing to bet he wasn’t close to 100% for a lot of those games even. He’s at spring training this year healthy and it’s obvious; He already has two home runs in 9 AB.

Drew Stubbs OF CIN – A lot of people are comparing Drew Stubbs to Grady Sizemore. Stubbs is the type of leadoff hitter who’d like to hit a home run rather than take a walk. This creates a little trouble for his batting average, but I have a feeling fantasy owners won’t mind considering he has power and speed. Stubbs is a five tool player and is looking to play every day for Cincinnati. His 8 HR and 10 SB in only 180 AB makes me salivate! Projected over 520 AB (A modest amount for someone leading off for a high-powered offense and playing every day), Stubbs has the potential to hit 23 HR while stealing 28 bases. SWOON!

I feel like I'm the only one in the world who is excited about drafting Garrett Jones.

Garrett Jones 1B/OF PIT – I’m convinced all the non-believers of Garrett Jones are the ones who didn’t own him last year. Garrett Jones single-handedly carried my whole fantasy team last year in the month of July. After pitchers made an adjustment to him, he quickly made his own adjustments and continued to produce the entire rest of the season. He has trouble against lefties but so does Ryan Howard. Don’t be afraid to draft this masher as your starting 1B or 3rd OF in 12+ team mixed leagues. As an added bonus he might lead the league in stolen bases for first-base eligible players.

Tim Hudson SP ATL – Hudson came back from major elbow surgery last year and I have have to admit: I was skeptical that he’d return to form quickly. Boy did he prove me wrong. His strikeout rate actually went up from his career average. I feel like Tim Hudson will put up John Lackey type numbers, but you can get Hudson a lot later in your drafts. The fact that Atlanta offered him a three-year, $28 million contract tells me they are completely satisfied in his return from injury.

What's worse, having the name "Homer" as a MLB pitcher or actually having Homer Simpson pitch for your team? I wonder what Homer Simpson's ERA would be...

Brian Matusz SP BAL – It may be too late to consider Brian Matusz a sleeper after all the recent hype I’ve seen him receive. In his last four starts in 2009, he went 3-0 with a 2.42 ERA which tells me he started to figure things out. It’s not like you need more convincing that this kid has great stuff, but so far in spring training, Matusz leads the league in strikeouts with 10. He is going to bring the heat this year, the only question is…will it be for you or someone else in your league?

Carlos Zambrano SP ChC – It doesn’t feel like Zambrano is only 29 years old. He’s entering his 10th season in the majors for crying out loud! Zambrano has always been a fantasy cornerstone but the past three years he hasn’t quite been an ace. This year I expect Zambrano to return to his 200K form. He has entered camp in great physical shape and I think he knows the Cubs are depending on him to anchor their staff now that Rich Harden is out of town. Zambrano is a great pitcher to watch on TV because of his emotion, and he’s going to be a great pitcher to own this year.

Homer Bailey SP CIN – “Homer” might be the absolute worst name for a pitcher (Josh Outman takes the cake for best pitching name) but this year he’s ready to show why he was once considered to be a great prospect. His fastball tops out around 97 mph which shows you the utter strength in his arm. Last year he had trouble with the command of his fastball along with using secondary pitches to fool hitters. He took some time to develop a slider near the end of the season and take a look at his last nine starts: 53K, 1.70 ERA, 6 W, 1 L. The only question is if Bailey can keep his red-hot finish going into the 2010 season. Considering he’s going undrafted in many leagues, I’m willing to take the risk and draft him.

Is Rauch the Twins Save-ior?

My colleague, Mr. Bamford eloquently made his argument yesterday that Joe Nathan and Mariano Rivera were the only true consistent high end closers, and he may well be correct in that estimation. But is the impact “enormous?” Only to Nathan and the Minnesota Twins. From my point of view, Nathan’s absence does very little to change the Closer landscape, except to get some managers to leap even sooner than they might have, or start a Closer run a round or so sooner then it would normally start. Let’s face it, managers are Closer crazy regardless.

That said, someone still has to close games in the Twin Cities, and who that lucky draft day S.O.B. is, well, let’s take a look at the options.

First off, here are/were my pre-season Closer rankings, and my thoughts on drafting Closers: Go ahead and read it, I’ll wait. I hate repeating myself anyway–

Welcome back. All settled in? Got a fresh beer? Okay, let’s move on.

You’ll note that I listed Matt Guerrier as Nathan’s “Successor in Waiting.” However in my relief pitcher column, I suggested the guy to keep an eye on is Jose Mijares. So which of them will it be? Likely neither.

First let me say that Twins coach Ron Gardenhire plays his cards so close to the vest they might as well be tattooed on. Plus there is still some slim hope Nathan could play come opening day. How thin? Thin enough to make David Wells look anorexic.

So here are our options and their likelihood of Closing this season in Minnesota.

Front Runner: Jon Rauch – Many forget that Rauch successfully closed for a half season for the lowly Nationals in 2008 before he got traded to the Diamondbacks and had a meltdown. But prior to and after his debacle in the desert, Rauch has been a solid strike-out reliever. He’s a veteran guy who should get the first shot. Odds to close 65/35

Runner Up: Matt Guerrier – Matt is about is consistent as they come for a relief pitcher, and has logged more innings in his role than about any pitcher I can think of. If your league counts Holds, you want this guy anyway. However, Guerrier is not a lights out strike-out pitcher. He doesn’t have Closer make-up and he gives up too many long balls. That said, he’s never had the chance to try. Odds to close 25/75

Mijares

The Contender: Jose Mijares – He’s young, cocky, often immature, and at times struggles with his control. He is however the best of the bunch in terms of true closer stuff. He’s hell on lefties but Swiss cheese to righties. he needs more experience, but we could see him take the closer role from Rauch by the All-Star break if he settles in. Until then he makes for a nice one-two set up punch with Guerrier. Odds to Close 7/93

The Darkhorse: Pat Neshek - Neshek has long been one of the Twins best relievers. He was lights out in 2007, and struggled a bit in 2008 before surgery cost him all of 2009. Still, he has the stuff, and Gardenhire’s confidence, so the coach could throw a curve and use Neshek when the game counts most. Odds to close 3/97

Nothing would surprise me with Gardenhire, and nothing should surprise you either. Someone other than these four could pop out of the wordwork to close games in Minnesota this season. But for now, the odds, and my money are on Jon Rauch. He should get between 25-35 saves if he hangs onto the job all season.

I wouldn’t take Rauch in my Top 10 picks at the position, but when we know for sure he has the gig, he could provide Top 15 numbers. For now, he’s out of my Top 22, unless you count Holds, then he’s worth looking at.

Closer Rankings, Sholty’s Drafting Tips, 1B Rankings, 2B Rankings, Catcher Rankings, OF Rankings, Assume the Position, 5 Guys To Avoid Like The Plague

Need more fantasy? NFL – NBA – NHL.

The sun is slowly creeping out of its winter slumber.  It’s no longer dark when your alarm goes off in the morning.  The world is becoming green again.  Most importantly, Spring Training signals that baseball is just around the corner!

While Spring Training always points to the start of the fantasy baseball season, it is rather useless from a fantasy perspective.

For the most part, what happens in Spring Training can be discarded from your fantasy memory.  If Albert Pujols hits .204 in March, I’m still going to confidently take him with the first overall pick. 

And, if Jack Wilson hits .419 with six homeruns, I’m still leaving him on the waiver wire.  Or laughing at you when you take him in the 15^th round.

The fact of the matter is that Spring Training numbers mean very little for most guys who are established big leaguers.  Often times, hitters are fiddling with a new mechanic or pitchers are trying out a new pitch, both of which can explain away a poor preseason.

On the other hand, with so many young and inexperienced players in camp, it is easy to explain why a veteran may pitch or hit well above their head.  In other words, even Jack Wilson can hit when half the pitchers he faces are of Double-A quality.

However, there are three categories of players worth keeping on eye on during Spring Training.  I will outline each of the three types for you, and suggest some players who fit the bill in 2010.

Players Coming Off of Injuries

It’s a dreaded line in fantasy baseball, “Expected to be ready for Spring Training.”  It’s funny, because when I read it, it says, “Don’t draft me unless I prove I’m healthy in March.” 

Spring Training is the moment of truth for players recovering from major injuries, as well as players who struggled with nagging injuries the previous year.  If they are in the line-up day in and day out during Spring Training, you should feel comfortable and confident drafting them.  If they start missing days here and there, a red flag should immediately go up.

Also, keep an eye on teams’ injuries reports.  If a guy starts missing time in March, he can quickly gain “Out until at least early/late April” status. 

Players to Keep an Eye on in 2010: Hideki Matsui, Eric Chavez, Ben Sheets, Justin Duchsherer, Troy Glaus, Billy Wagner, Geovanny Soto (did he lose weight?), Conor Jackson, Brandon Webb, Jake Westbrook, Cameron Maybin, Johan Santana, Jose Reyes, Jesus Flores. Daisuke Matsuzaka, Alfonso Soriano, Huston Street, Brandon Inge, Jeremy Bonderman, Joe Nathan, Carlos Quentin

Players Fighting for a Starting Job

Spring Training is where jobs are won and lost, and platoons are born.  If two players head into March vying for an every an everyday job, nine times out of 10 the player who has the better Spring Training will get the nod.

Furthermore, players can play themselves into platoons in Spring Training.  Pay attention to a player’s righty and lefty splits to see if he is a candidate to lose at bats, and keep an eye on any opposite handed teammates who play the same position and have a great March.

For pitchers, look at the candidates for the fifth, and in some cases fourth, spot in the rotation, as these rotation spots are often won and lost in Spring Training.  Knowing who is going to fill the spots at the bottom of a team’s rotation, especially in deeper leagues, is hugely advantageous on draft day and on the waiver wire early in the season.

Players to Keep an Eye on in 2010: Jake Fox, Ryan Sweeney, Randy Ruiz, Jason Frasor, Kevin Gregg, Felipe Lopez, Brandon Ryan, Brad Penny, Rich Hill, Ian Kennedy, Ryan Garko, Casey Kotchman, Mike Jacobs, Daniel Murphy, Scott Hairston, Mat Latos, Jeff Clement, Clay Buchholz, Melvin Mora, Alberto Callaspo, Chris Getz, Randy Winn, Brett Gardner, Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes

Prospects Trying to Earn a Role

Prospects have a lot to gain or lose in Spring Training.  Often teams make a decision about a young player’s immediate future based on how they handle themselves in March.

For example, do you think there is any chance Stephen Strasburg heads to the minors if he’s lights out in Spring Training?  Of course not.  On the other hand, if he gets lit up, don’t be surprised if he gets sent to the minors for seasoning.

While a poor performance from a top prospect in March may result in spending April on the farm, don’t write these players off completely.  A hot start in the minors could result in an early recall to the big club with plenty of season left to impress. 

Players to Keep an Eye on in 2010: Brandon Wood, Chris Carter, Brett Wallace, Jason Heyward, Mat Gamel, James McDonald, Madison Bumgarner, Buster Posey, Lou Marson, Michael Brantley, Gaby Sanchez, Ian Desmond, Stephen Strasburg, Brian Matusz, Neftali Feliz, Justin Smoak, Desmond Jennings, Wade Davis, Aroldis Chapman, Austin Jackson, Scott Sizemore

Pence will leave opponents hanging their heads all season

2010 Fantasy MLB Outfielders ~ Breakouts, Busts and Sleepers

We are back for our next round of Breakouts, Busts and Sleepers. We’ve done the infield; Catchers,  First Basemen, Second Basemen, Short Stops and Third Base.  This time we’re looking at the OF position. Unlike the previous positions we’ve covered, we use three or more outfielders in every game, and they are crucial to our fantasy numbers across the board. For that reason we are doubling up, with one pick from each league.

So here we go, our various picks for 2010 Fantasy MLB Outfielders

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Tab Bamford (Taught Billy Mays everything he knew)

NL:

Breakout: Garrett Jones, PIT – 21 homers and 10 steals in 314 ABs last year; also eligible at 1B

Bust: Jason Bay, NYM – huge stadium killed David Wright’s numbers last year. He’ll be no different

Sleeper: Brad Hawpe, COL - forgotten in many leagues because his numbers are avg, any guy that’s consistently 80+ runs/RBI and 20-25 homers is a solid late round pick

AL:

Breakout: Nolan Remiold, BAL – put up solid numbers in limited action last year. If he can get an everyday shot, he could be a monster

Bust: Grady Sizemore, CLE - trades have taken all of the talent out of the lineup; he’s alone with what’s left of Travis Hafner.

Sleeper: Juan Pierre, CHW - stole 30 bases in limited action in LA last year. Could run a TON in Chicago this year.

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Ray Tannock (Has never gotten to the center of a Tootsie Roll pop)

NL:

Breakout: Nyjer Morgan, WSH – Morgan was cruising along with a solid year for both Pittsburgh and Washington before getting sidelined with a left hand fracture. He still managed to hit .307 with 15 doubles and 42 stolen bases and 74 runs. He’s in good company with Zimmerman and Dunn and he’ll be good for 100+ runs, 45 stolen bases and his RBI production should double to at least 80/

Bust: Carlos Beltran, NYM – Yup, put a stick in him he’s done. Between the knee, the investigation and hitting in that wretched park there is little chance of him being a fantasy elite this year.

Sleeper: Chris Coughlin, FLA – Last year’s ROY, this kid is poised to better himself in 2010 with a Marlins team that was a lot better than I think people remember. He is surrounded by quality hitter that can produce various RBI opportunities and he has even vowed to steal more bases which are always a plus.

AL:

Breakout: Jake Fox, OAK - Very big bat, good for quality runs and dingers, and could have a huge year this year. There is a growing concern that Daric Barton may not last at first which would be a plus for the big man with dual eligibility.

Bust: Johnny Damon, DET – I know that Damon hit .282 with 22 homeruns last year in New York, but one has to think he is nearing the end and if you were to take an outfielder from Detroit you would grab a younger Austin Jackson who will hit lead-off instead.

Sleeper: Nelson Cruz, TEX -  Cruz hit a wall towards the end of the season last year not producing quite as much as the beginning of the 2009 season due to an ankle injury; he still managed 33 HRs, 20 SB and 76 RBIs, so imagine what kind of numbers he would’ve put up 100% healthy…which he is…right now. Think about that for a second before following traditional cookie cutter advice

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Jon Schuman (Still believes the Bay City Rollers are the greatest rock band ever)

NL:

Breakout: Carlos Gonzalez, COL – I absolutely love this guy.  He has a chance to become Matt Kemp Lite in 2010.

Bust: Carlos Beltran, NYM - Don’t count on him being completely healthy at any point this season.  Out until late April will turn into, out until mid May.  Then we’ll all just sit around and wait for him to get hurt again.

Sleeper: Kyle Blanks, SD – He’s big, he’s strong, he flies under the radar.  Blanks has the ability to slug a ton of homeruns, even playing spacious Petco Park.

AL:

Breakout: Nolan Reimold, BAL – He’s a big strong kid with ton of power potential.  He should be able to collect 25 homeruns, and won’t cost you an arm and a leg.

Bust: Johnny Damon, DET – Good-bye New Yankee Stadium.  Good-bye lethal Yankees line-up.  Hello Detroit.  Ugh.  No chance at a repeat of 2009’s numbers.

Sleeper: Franklin Gutierrez, CLE – He’s 27 and coming off of a year in which he took a big step forward.  Look for another big step in 2010, and a 20/20 season.

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Mike Sholty (Brings a portable shower with him to Karaoke night)

His fantasy success may be history

NL:

Breakout: Jay Bruce, CIN – Bruce was super high on everyone’s sleeper lists last year after he came in swinging hard two years ago. Last year he had some big injury and mental problems and couldn’t get his stuff together and finish the season out well. This year I fully expect Jay Bruce to be a top 20 OF. He has the potential to be a first round pick in future drafts, he just has to tap into that massive potential and put up numbers. Do not sleep on this guy, especially at his reduced price tag (You can usually get him in the 18th round or later…highway robbery if you ask me)

Bust: Carlos Beltran, NYM – I still think Beltran has some ball left in him, I just don’t think you should set your expectations high this year. He’s going through some off-the-field issues at the moment and we don’t know how close to 100% he will be throughout the year. If you can get him very late (16th round or later) I’d take a speculative chance on him but don’t expect top 10 OF numbers from him like he usually produces.

Sleeper: Hunter Pence, HOU - Pence is an interesting sleeper candidate this year. We know he can hit .280 with 25 HR, but I think he can do more. This spring training he has already got off to a big bang, blasting 2 HR in one game alone. I think at the ripe age of 27, Pence will have a career year and be a top 20 OF.

AL:

Breakout: Julio Borbon,TEX - is very low on everyone’s fantasy radars, and it’s outrageous. This kid will be leading off for Texas every day and I expect him to hit .300 while stealing 50 bags. He will even offer you close to 10 HR, better than other guys like Ellsbury and Bourn. He’s the best 15th round pick you are going to find this year, so don’t let him pass you up.

Bust: Jacoby Ellsbury, BOS – When I call Jacoby Ellsbury a bust, I don’t mean he will be a fantasy non-factor. I totally believe in the kid, I just can’t convince myself to spend a 3rd or 4th round pick on the speedy outfielder. Why draft a guy in the 3rd round who gives you .300/8/60/100/60 when you can get Nyjer Morgan or Michael Bourn who will give you very similar numbers much later in the draft? Think about it before buy on his big price tag.

Sleeper: Rajai Davis, OAK – In under 400 AB last year, Rajai stole 40 bags and hit for a .305 avg. While I’m always weary about drafting speedy guys from Oakland (Oakland is always one of the worst teams to get SB from each year), I think that Davis will have the green light to steal at all times. Speed is his game after all. Expect around .300 avg with 50 SB this year, a great late round value for you if you have the need for speed later on in your draft.

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Rustyn Rose (Once made out for 3 hours with a cardboard cut-out of Anne Hathaway)

NL:

Breakout: Andrew McCutchen, PIT – Fantasy GMs have been waiting on this kids arrival for some time. This season McCutchen gets the full time gig with Nate McLouth gone. He stole 22 bases in just over 100 games. He could steal a good 35 this year and add a .290 average to 100 runs, 24 HRs and about 85 RBIs.

Bust: Raul Ibanez, PHI – Over the last few seasons, Ibanez has quietly become Mr. Reliable, and he really broke out last year. He’s getting old and this run of his has got to start tapering if not crashing soon. I think the first drop happens this year. My best guess is 85 Runs and RBIs, a .275 BA, and 25 HRs. Which aren’t terrible numbers, but when you consider how high he’ll be drafted, that would make him a bust in my book. I also feel like he could see extended DL time this year too.

Sleeper: Hunter Pence, HOU – It’s difficult to call anyone with Pence’s skills a sleeper, but since his rookie year when he flashed signs of what was to come, he’s been pretty mediocre. But he enters this season at full speed, turning 27 in April, and I expect he’ll have a career year. Don’t fall asleep on Corey Hart either. He was limited in 2009, but should be back to reliable 20/20 baseball this year.

AL:

Breakout: Denard Span, MIN - Span was a quiet producer last season hitting .311 with 97 runs and 23 stolen bases in 145 games. Not a lot of power yet, but he showed 4 tool skills. In the season’s second half he hit .341 with 43 RBIs. 2010 could be the coming out party for this 26 year old.

Bust: Alex Rios, CHW – This guys no longer the 5 tool Swiss Army knife fantasy managers salivated over. These days we’re more likely to spit on his pedestrian numbers. His power is fading, his speed has dwindled, and he looked terrible after the break last year. There’s no reason to think moving to Chicago with it’s now depleted line-up will improve his fantasy outlook.

Sleeper: Matt LaPorta, CLE – LaPorta will be among many in Cleveland’s youth movement, and he certainly has the skills to make the most of the opportunity, if he can stay healthy. I expect him to have a productive season hitting about .280, with 24 HRs and landing on the north side of 80 Runs and RBIs. Wishful thinking? Maybe, but he could very well surpass my expectations.

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Fernando Delgado (His real name is Shep Brukoski, but it didn’t sound baseball enough)

No lookin' back in 2010

NL:
Breakout: Andrew McCutchen, PIT – A tantalizing talent who brings a mix of speed and power to the Pirates leadoff spot, McCutchen performed admirably in his major league debut in 2009.  Over 433 at bats, he produced a .365 OBP and .836 OPS, both excellent numbers for a rookie leadoff man getting his first taste of big league pitching .  He displayed a good patience at the plate as well, as evidenced by a 12.74% walk rate and 19.17% K rate, both decent rates which McCutchen can improve upon with more experience.  Ultimately, McCutchen’s 12 home runs, 74 runs, 54 RBI’s, and 22 stolen bases in just two-thirds of a season in 2009 further justified his status as an elite prospect.  It is reasonable to expect an 18 HR/30 SB season with a full season of at bats, and that could be on the conservative side.  With the tools and talent McCutchen brings to the table, owners can hope for a Carl Crawford-like impact in the years to come.

Bust: Alfonso Soriano, CHC - Don’t overpay for this overpaid (in real life) fading star.  Most owners already know to stay away from the declining 34-year-old after having been burned the past few seasons by injuries (2007, 2008, and 2009) and, for the first time, mediocrity in 2009.  Soriano might not even be worth the middle-round pick (rounds 10-15) or $10 auction price that it would take to draft him.   Soriano’s .303 on-base percentage last season was the lowest of his career since 2001, and he has seen both his slugging % and OPS decline for 3 consecutive seasons.  With Soriano continuing to age, it is unlikely that he will avoid the injury bug in 2010.  Let someone else draft him and hope that he plays even half a season of productive baseball.

Sleeper: Colby Rasmus, STL – A hyped prospect in recent seasons, Rasmus has become somewhat of an afterthought in the later rounds of fantasy drafts.  But this talented young outfielder could provide some excellent value for owners who are willing to take a little bit of a risk.  In 2009, Rasmus played hopscotch around the Cardinals batting order, hitting second in the lineup in front of Albert Pujols one some nights, or hitting fifth behind Matt Holliday on others.  Either way, Rasmus will be hitting around some well-established run producers in what should be a good lineup.  Still only 23 years old and heading into just his second full major league season, Rasmus showed a glimpse of his potential in 2009 by turning in a .278 batting average and .807 OPS in 82 games before the All-Star break.  We can safely assume that the fatigue of his first full major league season took its toll on Rasmus, but it won’t be surprising to see him take a step forward and improve on his 16 home runs and 52 RBI’s in 2010.

AL:

Breakout: Julio Borbon, TEX – Borbon is a lightning-fast speedster who will have the green light to steal bases as the leadoff man for the Texas Rangers.  In only 26 games in 2009, Borbon swiped 19 bags while hitting .312 and sporting an impressive .376 on-base percentage.  While only a small sample size, that brief debut has gained Ron Washington’s confidence and earned Borbon the chance to earn full-time at-bats while leading off.  Borbon’s biggest obstacle to becoming the AL’s version of Michael Bourn is his ability to hit left-handed pitching (only 2 hits in 16 at-bats last season, and a weakness throughout his minor league career).  Borbon was sheltered away from lefties last year, but this season he will have to show what he can do against southpaws.  Expect some early struggles against left-handed starting pitchers, but if Borbon can settle down and hold his own, a .300 average with 90 runs and 35 stolen bases isn’t out of the question setting the table for a potent Rangers lineup.

Bust: Johnny Damon, DET - Damon is moving from one of baseball best lineups in 2009 – the New York Yankees – to one of baseball’s most mediocre lineups – the Detroit Tigers.  He is also moving from one of baseball’s best hitting parks – the dinger paradise known as the new Yankee Stadium – to one of baseball’s worst hitter’s parks – Comerica Park.  Damon is 36, with his diminished fielding skills now considered a liability.  All of these factors are a recipe for a drastic and sudden decline.  With an ADP of anywhere from 100-130 and an environment which ensures that Damon will fall well short of his production from last season, Damon is a prime candidate to turn in his worst fantasy season in years.

Sleeper: Coco Crisp, KC – Finally given a chance to have a full-time gig in 2009 with the Royals, Crisp had his season cut short by shoulder injuries.  This season, Crisp will have another chance to prove himself in Oakland at the top of the lineup.  Crisp offers a cheap source of runs and steals in the later rounds of drafts.  Crisp’s showed fantasy potential in a part-time role with Boston in 2007 and 2008, turning in his best season in 2007 with 7 home runs and 28 stolen bases in 145 games.  If Crisp can stay healthy and show some of the improved patience he showed in his brief stint in Kansas City, he could provide a 90 run/10 HR/25 SB season at a bargain price.

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Closer Rankings, Sholty’s Drafting Tips, 1B Rankings, 2B Rankings, Catcher Rankings, OF Rankings, Assume the Position, 5 Guys To Avoid Like The Plague

Need more fantasy? NFL – NBA – NHL.

Boston Bruins center Marc Savard was diagnosed with a grade two concussion Monday and is likely done for the year after Pittsburgh’s Matt Cooke took a cheap shot in a game over the weekend.

Savard was third on the Bruins in scoring this season with 33 points (10 goals, 23 assists) and was +2 in over 18 minutes of ice time per night. Savard’s 17 points on the power play (six goals, 11 assists) led Boston as well. Losing Savard for any length of time is a serious blow to not only the Bruins’ playoff run, but also many fantasy teams’ depth charts.

Savard is (hopefully) not a top center on a fantasy team, but was a favorable third or fourth center to fill the holes in the schedule for week-to-week matchups. In his absense, Boston will likely be forced to play Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci more often. Krejci will continue to have minimal fantasy value, but Bergeron could be a solid waiver claim for owners losing Savard. Bergeron is only owned in 24 percent of ESPN leagues, so consider your roster depth and give Bergeron a long look.

Cooke owners should also be prepared for a suspension from the NHL soon, and it could be lengthy.

Reports out of Minnesota on Tuesday morning are that Twins’ closer Joe Nathan might be done for the year. Nathan has a torn ulnar collateral ligament and will decide whether to have surgery within the next two weeks.

The Twins will now have to shuffle the deck in their bullpen, and are staring at the harsh reality that they do not have an experienced closer on their roster. Jon Rauch has the most recent experience closing games, but his career has been far from consistent.

Fantasy owners will now need to make a dramatic change in their drafting strategy. Nathan has been one of the very few closers that has consistently produced over the past five seasons; only Mariano Rivera has consistently closed for one team as long as Nathan has in Minneapolis. If a “sure thing” existed in fantasy baseball, it was that Nathan and Rivera would get you 35 saves with a low ERA.

With Nathan now out of the equation, just as draft season starts, owners need to re-think the value of closers on their rosters and the value of closers in the draft. Clearly, the scoring system in your fantasy league should determine the value of closers on your roster, but the volatility in the area makes it hard to buy a winner every year. Throwing in (pun intended) the annual random 25 save guy (see anyone closing for Washington, Pittsburgh, Florida or Houston), the value of an elite closer can be overstated.

But taking Nathan out of the equation changes things.

Rivera is now, clearly, the one elite closer on the board. If your league values ERA and saves, Rivera’s value is now elevated.

Every other closer, though, now becomes more of a crap shoot than they already were in your draft. If your draft follows the trends of nearly every other draft, Rivera will go relatively early (third or fourth round) and then, in the sixth or seventh, someone will take another closer. Whomever breaks the seal on closers is then responsible for a cascade of picks that grossly overvalue a position with marginal impact in most scoring systems.

Certainly there will be hype for closers like Carlos Marmol of the Cubs now, who have ridiculous stuff and could strikeout nearly two batters per inning pitched. But not many teams have enough middle-inning relief depth to make the 35 innings from a closer over the course of the season enough to swing your ERA or WHIP totals.

Reality for fantasy owners is that the Nathan injury should push the entire closer market DOWN your draft board. With one fewer sure thing on the board, the limited gross impact on a team’s weekly production, and the reality that you can usually grab 50 saves off waivers in any season by acting quickly, you should look to add quality starting pitching over closers and avoid the impulse to be “that guy” when the next person on Yahoo! or ESPN’s rankings tells you that Jose Valverde’s a good idea.

The next question is who be Joe Nathan’s replacement to close.

Closer Rankings, Sholty’s Drafting Tips, 1B Rankings, 2B Rankings, Catcher Rankings, OF Rankings, Assume the Position, 5 Guys To Avoid Like The Plague

Need more fantasy? NFL – NBA – NHL.

#5: OF Jason Bay, New York Mets

As a big Red Sox fan and having a year plus to watch Bay show off his skills, I cannot in good conscience recommend you picking up Bay in your draft unless you are desperate, are fairly confident you could use him as actual trade bait, or are in a deep NL-Only league.

Bay taking a hack

• He can’t hit breaking balls or off/speed stuff. You could tell him before the pitch a slider was coming and he’d still whiff. Bay set a career-high 162 strikeouts with the Sawx in 2009, and frankly, going to a lineup that’s a level or two below what they have going on in Boston, I can’t see Bay drawing 90+ walks again…though I do like his potential to whiff over 150 times.
• Did I mention he’s moving from slugger-friendly Fenway Park (where Bay hit a sparkling .273/.406/.531, with 15 home runs and 18 of his 29 doubles) to the pitcher-friendly confines of Citi Field? A former Pirate, Bay has some experience handling a pitchers’ ballpark, and it wasn’t friendly. In 2007, Bay hit .259 with 7 of his 21 home runs at PNC, and during his time with the Pirates, the majority of his home runs came on the road (ex: in 2005, Bay hit just 9 of his 34 homers at home).
• Bottom line: because of my personal concerns over Bay, who is very streaky, going to a weaker offensive team, and  is primarily a fastball-hitter who doesn’t hit well for power in pitcher-friendly stadiums, so I don’t see him performing at optimal levels in many hitting categories. In my opinion, it’s nothing short of delusional to expect another 100+ Run, 30+ Home Run season out of Bay. I’ll pass.

#4: 3B/1B Mark Reynolds, Arizona

There is no doubt that this kid has the raw power in his bat to be able to lead the league in home runs. However, I am highly concerned by his poor contact rate, and judging by his through-the-roof 2009 HR/FB rate (26% compared to 18.2% in 2008), plus a 2% higher flyball rate, it looks like Reynolds had some help to get that gargantuan season.

Judging off of his 70.9% contact rate when swinging at pitches inside the strike zone (for reference, your elite hitters will rest in the 80’s, maybe even around 90%), which was almost exactly the same as his career percentage for that figure, and assuming that HR/FB rate comes back down to normal (which is also assuming that his 2009 rate was not the norm), Reynolds will have to make a huge jump in his ability to make contact to have a sure shot at 40+ Home Runs again.

And how bout those strikeouts? Would you like your third round pick to be invested in a guy who will hit around .255, walk 60 or 70 times, and whiff way over 200 times when his rate of contact could lead to him realistically hitting anywhere in a range from 25 to 50 home runs?

Too big of a gamble for me, I’ll be happy to brag about picking him up in the final round of last year’s draft and instead invest that third rounder in Felix Hernandez or Justin Verlander.

#3: SP Brandon Webb, Arizona

This one seems obvious enough, but apparently it isn’t, so I’m going to hammer this one home until people start to get it. This past Sunday, it was reported that Brandon Webb was playing catch but still not feeling amazing. Understandable, because he’s coming off of a serious shoulder injury, and he

Webb, one of the more highly regarded pitchers in the NL, delivers a pitch

still doesn’t even have a scheduled date to return to pitching. Per the most recent figure I could acquire, Webb still has an average draft position of 132.9 (though I looked hard, couldn’t find a more recent figure, that was from Feb. 9), which puts him somewhere between rounds 11 and 13.

In NL Auction Drafts on ESPN.com, Webb is going for $18 even though nobody has the slightest clue when he’s going to return to action. If you play in an Auction league, you’d be better off spending $17 on Ubaldo Jimenez, $16 on Clayton Kershaw, or $15 on Jair Jurrjens.

However, don’t get me wrong about Webb. If you have the pitching depth to afford it and can get him in one of the last few rounds, or even better, off the waiver wire, by all means, go for it. In that case, it’s a low risk with a chance at a really good reward, just don’t be counting on too much from him, or you’ll likely be disappointed.

#2: SP Javier Vazquez, New York Yankees

One thing here is certain–Vazquez was stellar last year. However, two things are different now:

1. Vazquez is pitching in the much more offensively-potent AL East.
2. Vazquez is pitching in that shiny New York Launching Pad that is YSII.

Not only is Javy going to miss pitching in an offensively weaker league, going back to the league where he last sported an ugly 4.67 ERA, he’s going to undergo a baptism by fire pitching under the bright lights at Yankee Stadium II. He’s a career 40% flyball pitcher, and at a stadium where a hard-hit pop up and a gentle breeze make for a lucky home run, that doesn’t look very good.

As far as I can tell, he still seems like a pretty safe bet for 200+ strikeouts and 15+ wins, but the concern for me is tacking on a value for K’s and wins relative to ERA and home runs. His fly ball tendencies make it likely that he gives up a boatload of runs, so does it really make all those strikeouts worth it? I’d be more comfortable staying away from him, especially when you could get comparable production from Jorge De La Rosa quite a bit later in the draft.

#1: C Joe Mauer, Minnesota

Mauer has established himself as an elite catcher with two batting titles and an MVP, but is he worhty of being a first round selection?

It’s going to be hard for me to back this one up, but just hear me out for my explanation on why to avoid Mauer in the draft, and you’ll get it. I know the batting average and power totals are sexy numbers, especially considering the notoriously thin position of catcher, but look at his 2009 numbers in comparison to his career to that point.

Mauer is a guy who just once before in his career hit even double digit home runs (and that was 13, let alone 28), and what’s even more surprising is that his line drive% was identical to his ‘08 number and his fly ball% increased by barely over 1%. This means his HR/FB rate took a huge spike from 6.5% in his 9-home run 2008 season to 20.4% in his 28-home run season last year.

Right now I want to state that Mauer is arguably the best catcher in the game, as well as one of my favorite players in the game. However, given his historical trends in the power department, I am seriously questioning his ability to repeat his 2009 power numbers, but he’s still going off the board in the middle of the first round in drafts.

Not only can you get more well rounded players at that point of the draft (Troy Tulowitzki, Matt Kemp, anyone?) fantasy-wise, but you’ll find two guys who are likely to outperform Mauer in almost every offensive facet one, two, or maybe even three rounds later: Victor Martinez and Brian McCann.

Just remember to take my warning against Mauer with a grain of salt. I’m warning you against taking Mauer where most people are taking him. However, if you can have him anywhere in round 2 or even later (highly unlikely), then you might as well go for it.

Need more fantasy? NFL – NBA – NHL.

Gamel is ready tomake his mark!

Welcome back to another exhilarating episode of Breakouts, Sleepers, and Busts. In case you missed our other drama filled coverage, here’s a look at the Catchers – First basemen – Second basemen – and Shortstop.

In last week’s episode, Rustyn confronted Jon about his secret love affair with Alcides Escobar; insisting HE was his one true fan!

Tab decided to comes to terms with his secret affinity with cows, and his utter love with the Cabrera kids, and Mike uncovered the shocking truth about Derek Jeter’s possible over-value sending him in a tailspin of drunken fury, and sleepless nights.

Meanwhile, Ray was busy dreaming of delusions that Eric Aybar would finally make an ultimate push as an elite lead-off hitter; a notion that actually holds more water than the diapers he was so accustomed to wearing.

Will the gang stumble upon fantasy gold this week? Will Jose Reyes’ thyroid be the next issue in a long line of sudden ailments, and will the site’s administrator discover the shocking truth about his crack team of writers ( they all just love fresh scones and tea in the morning)?

All this and more will be answered right now in this week’s episode. (Sponsored by fans of The Bill Bixby Fan Club—Jon Schuman President).

Rustyn Rose: (Mayor of tiny town, master of the original B.C. Rich Seagull)

Breakout: Ian Stewart, COL – Others may not be as high on Stewart this year as I am. I think a full year in Denver will see him put up fairly solid numbers; about 90 Runs and RBIs, with 30 dingers. The plus is his 2nd base eligibility. Not any speed here, but it’s the power you want. The concern is his average. Can he become more patient at the plate. I think he’ll go up and down with that but his BA should be somewhere between .260 – .270. Not rock star heights, but neither is Mark Reynolds, and he’s ranked much higher.

Bust: Chipper Jones, ATL – This is a tough call to make for many reasons. The Chipper has been about as consistent as they come for years, but I think at this point the only thing you can count on him for moving forward is a .300+ average over and 125-135 games played. He won’t hurt you, but a rebound from last year’s drop off is not likely.

Sleeper: Alex Gordon, KC – Gordon has been the poster child for fantasy disappointment for a few seasons now, yet the promise is there. The Royals are sticking with him, and he could make a nice late steal. Remember, Ryan Zimmerman took a few years to finally bring his promise to fruition.

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Tab Bamford: (They say he counts sheep in his sleep, while doing yoga in his dreams – fascinating!)

Breakout: Mark Teahen, CHW: Teahen is playing in hitter friendly US Cellular Field on Chicago’s south side now, and will get a chance (for the first time in his career) to play one position every day without the pressure of being an uber prospect looming over his head. With minimal pressure and consistency, he could be a nice surprise.

Bust: Jhonny Peralta, CLE: Peralta? A bust? Really? Yes, trust me.

Sleeper: Scott Rolen, CIN: Rolen’s interesting because he’ll be the old man with no pressure in a potent young lineup, and a hitter-friendly park in Cincy. Expecting 30 home runs would be a mistake, but a solid 20-25 with 75-80 RBI wouldn’t seem out of the question.

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Mike Sholty: (Forget Tommy Boy, Mike DID sell a ketchup Popsicle to a woman in white gloves!)

Breakout: Brandon Wood, LAA: Brandon Wood has been jerked around from the minors to the majors a lot, but hopefully he can land a starting gig. If he can, look for him to be a big source of HR and RBI while maybe hurting your avg a little.

Sleeper: David Freese, STL: Brandon Wood and David Freese both have different stories but both are great late round choices in drafts. David Freese probably would have made a big bang last year if it wasn’t for his injury. He’s 27 years old now and ready to tear up the majors. I think he can have a .300+ avg with 25 HR if he gets regular at bats.

Bust: Chipper Jones, ATL: It’s obvious why I’d pick Chipper Jones as a bust. His production has been dropping in recent years, and he is practically an old man at 38 years old. People are sometimes drafting him in the same rounds that Ryan Zimmerman goes, and that is just terrible. Chipper might put up some numbers, but definitely not numbers worth his draft position. You know what you are getting here folks, good batting average and ho-hum in the other four hitter categories.

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Jon Schuman: (“You shouldn’t have done that, he’s just a boy.”)

Breakout: Gordon Beckham, CHW: The kid is going to be a superstar.  Expect a big step forward in 2010 as he makes his rise to the top of the heap.  He is a great target on draft day.  Will qualify at 2B shortly after the season starts as well!

Bust: Mark Reynolds, ARI: He strikes out way too much to repeat his 2009 performance.  I am calling for a drop a big drop in batting average, as well as a dip in homeruns and stolen bases.  He is way too much of a risk to take that early in your draft.

Sleeper: David Freese, STL: Freese has a solid bat, and should play every day in St. Louis since the Cards really lack any other options.  He could surprise a lot of people with his production, and won’t require a huge investment, making him a nice target.

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Ray Tannock: (He really does wear his sunglasses at night.)

Breakout: Andy LaRoche, PIT: LaRoche finished 2009 with a bang hitting 5 HRs and 18 RBI in September and that could be insight as to what’s to come. Surrounded by some really good speed, and with his sophomore year now behind him (I say 2009 is his sophomore year since it was the first time he played an entire season) one has to wonder if this is the year the 26 year old finally breaks out; the chances are pretty good.

Bust: Pedro Feliz, HOU: If you draft Pedro Feliz, you should really have your head checked. He has been on the decline for a while now, and that was when he was in Philly; a hitter friendly park. Now in Houston you can be sure to see a significant decline in his fantasy numbers.

Sleeper: Mat Gamel, MIL: There’s a lot of mystery as to whether or not Gamel will be called up to take over at third, but the chances are very high. The only thing standing in his way is his defense, which, is said to be vastly improved from a year ago.

Remember, this is the same guy who hit .242/.338/.422 with 5 HRs, 20 RBIs, in only 128 AB. He is also the coveted additional left handed bat the Brew Crew are in need of.

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Tune in next week, when Rustyn goes one on one with the outfield, and Scoob and the gang get caught up in another hair raising mystery.

Check out these other great articles by the Fantasyknuckleheads staff.

Sholty’s Drafting Advice - Vampires in MLB? – Do Baseball Parks Really Matter? – Julius Peppers Gets How Much Money? – Position Worth: Is It Worth the Hype?

Good Morning everyone, here is our third installment of The Saturday Report bringing you player news from around the league. This week features some interesting updates such as: Jarrod Saltalamacchia’s current health update, or whether or not Hideki Matsui will become a total bust and more, so let’s take a look.

National League Player News: March 7, 2010:

Huston Street – Rockies: The marquis fireballer-reliever for Colorado did some more work on Saturday throwing about 40 balls from 110 feet reports Inside the Rockies.

Street has been dealing with some inflammation in his throwing shoulder over the past two weeks or so, but it isn’t being considered serious which should raise a couple of red flags. Just keep a discerning eye on the situation to ensure things don’t go south prior to opening day.

Brandon Webb – Diamondbacks: Updated from 2/26, Last week we reported that Webb’s recovery was going well and that he should be on track to be available on opening day, now Webb is saying “it is too early to say whether he’ll begin the regular season.” reports the Arizona Republic.

Webb is targeting to be game-ready by March 15th at the latest, and while he is throwing some batting practices and mound sessions successfully, everything is simply being taken down a cautious road. Even if he isn’t ready be opening day, he should still be fine for the 2010 MLB fantasy season.

Angel Guzman – Cubs: Paul Sullivan of The Chicago Tribune is reporting that Guzman has “a significant ligament tear” in the bottom part of his shoulder and that spells disaster for the Cubs and fantasy owners alike.

Guzman posted a 2.95 ERA with a 1.05 WHIP last year and was considered to be a huge contributor this year for the Cubs, and it appears that isn’t going to happen. If he rehabs, it will be a month or more before he knows whether he can pitch, if he gets surgery he may never pitch again; he is safe to drop in all formats.

Emmanuel Burris – Giants: Burris has been diagnosed with a broken toe and will don a boot for the next four weeks making his chances of being on the roster at opening day null and void. Furthermore, there will be additional time missed once he is healed since he will have to work through some minor league stints.

Ugh, the second base situation in San Fran is just an utter mess right now, with Burris and Sanchez being down and for those of you thinking of picking up Uribe I would suggest exploring other options first.

Scott Hairston – Padres: Hairston left Saturday’s game after being hit on the hand/wrist and there hasn’t been an update—as of this article—and may not be one until Monday, so check back here as we will keep you informed.

I say hand/wrist because it is unclear what body part actually took the blow, but losing Hairston would be a blow to San Diego, and fantasy owners who were thinking of using him in a utility role.

American League Player News: March 7, 2010:

Hank Blalock – Rangers: Jon Heyman on Twitter is reporting that the Rays are in “serious talks” with the vaunted first baseman which poses an interesting bit of news.

It’s always hard to disseminate these Tweets, but assuming the Rays actually are interested and bring him in, Blalock would serve as a very nice DH hitter and given the fact there is no guarantee over the durability of Carlos Pena’s surgically repaired fingers there is even the slight chance of Blalock eventually starting.

Blalock is a funny guy, he had a horrible batting line (.234/.277/.459) but did hit 25 homers in 2009 which seems to be par for the course for him. He may be of some value going forward if the Rays pick him up. Stay Tuned.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia – Rangers: Well Texas is a hot spot right now huh? Old “Salty” mowed down speedster Alex Gordon while trying to steal second which is a great indication to his overall recovery progress from shoulder surgery.

This is wonderful news as Saltalamacchia is in line to be a huge sleeper in my opinion if he is ready to go; Taylor Teagarden isn’t an option either way, so don’t even think about it.

Hideki Matsui – Angels: Manager Mike Scioscia said that Matsui could be ready to DH in a spring game today (Sunday).

Really? That’s great for a guy who is 35, on a serious decline, and traveling around with not one, but two bad knees. There are still some people with delusions of grandeur that Matsui will hit another 25+ homeruns this year; don’t be one of those people.

Joe Nathan – Twins: Nathan left Saturday’s game for “precautionary reasons” due to soreness in his right elbow.

Uh oh, that’s not good news in the slightest considering Nathan had surgery to remove bone chips in that same elbow just last October. The procedure is relatively small, but anything surrounding ill feeling in that elbow could potentially be disastrous for Nathan and fantasy owners. Stay Tuned for more.

Adam Lind – Blue Jays For those of you hoping that perhaps Lind was going to become eligible at first base you can pretty much forget it (thank you very much Lyle Overbay).

There was some talk about that possibility along with also hitting cleanup, but the fact of the matter is no matter where you put this guy, he is going to produce just as he did in 2009.

Last year he was a 30/30 hitter and it wasn’t a fluke here is my projected line:
.298 AVG, 34 HR, 118 RBI, 45 DBL, 97 R, 5 SB, .978 OPS.

For more fantasy news and advice  check out our NFL – NBA – and NHL sections.

Position Eligibility

Much is made each season about the importance of position eligibility. How much it really matters is a question unique to each league, and the drafting strategies of each team manager. For the sake of argument though, most would agree, more is better.

Each season we see players add or lose eligibility and different positions. So below I have created a little cheat sheet of those who will see those changes in 2010. Some of these changes may have appeared last season, but just to be safe…  This is based on 20+ plate appearances at a position last season. Not all leagues require 20 appearances, so it’s important to know your league guidelines, be it Yahoo, ESPN, CBSSportsline, or any number of other professional or private fantasy sites. Most major sports sites can give you a breakdown of games played for each player by position.

I have listed in bold, gains or losses I think managers should be aware of the most. As an example, Brandon Inge and Pablo Sandoval both lose Catcher eligibility. That hurts their value for a thin position. Several string bats are relegated to DH only. This is not to say at some point this season they may not gain positions back. This is just more for positional awareness going into the season.

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Closer Rankings, Sholty’s Drafting Tips, 1B Rankings, 2B Rankings, Catcher Rankings, OF Rankings