Sporting News: QB Rankings

wide right · Jul 7, 2007

Full QB rankings

If the 2006 Raiders taught us anything, as ugly as it was to witness, it's that an NFL offense can't be successful without at least an adequate NFL starting quarterback. (Sorry, Andrew Walter and Aaron Brooks, but this clipboard is for you.)

Running backs (LaMont Jordan, in this case) have no room to run because they see eight-men fronts. Receivers (Randy Moss) watch passes fly over their heads or fall 5 yards short. And tight ends end up with 6-yard catches instead of 16-yard catches.

The same is true in fantasy football. A fantasy team can't win without at least an average QB scorer. Fantasy owners must remember that on draft day. As important as having stud RBs and depth at WR is, a fantasy team can't go anywhere if it's relying on a weekly underachiever.

But there's a saving grace. Unlike the running back position, top quarterbacks still can be had in the fifth or sixth round because of the uniformity at the position. And productive bargains can be had in the late rounds or even on the free-agent wire. Just look at what Drew Brees, Tony Romo and Vince Young did last year. The top guys -- Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Carson Palmer -- might remain the same, but that middle tier of "adequate" fantasy quarterbacks changes each season.

DRAFT STRATEGY

Quarterback draft strategy varies for each owner. Some owners prefer to take one of the top five guys, even if it costs them at running back or receiver. Other owners prefer to load up on RBs and WRs early and then grab a solid QB in about the fifth or sixth round. Unfortunately, neither method has proven to be superior. Thus, keep your mind open to both strategies. Shoot for a stud QB early, but don't reach. If you miss out, you're still OK.

MEDICAL REPORT

Donovan McNabb returns from a torn ACL. Those dreaded ACL tears aren't quite as nightmarish as they used to be; even plenty of running backs such as Jamal Lewis have made successful returns from them. What's more concerning about McNabb is that he has played only 19 games over the past two seasons.

Philip Rivers returns from a sprained foot, which sounds less severe but has a habit of lingering with regular use. That said, Rivers is hardly a quarterback that uses his feet a whole lot. No worries here.

Matt Leinart injured his throwing shoulder late last year, and he has taken it easy all offseason. That's a good thing, and it seems to have helped him. Leinart knows he'll enter training camp as the starter, so he was right to take it easy. He'll be fine.

Byron Leftwich's ankle injury/surgery isn't as much of a concern as his relationship with coach Jack Del Rio and his familiarity with new offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter's offense. Even though Leftwich reportedly has worked hard this offseason, we'd almost rather he worked out with the team instead of a personal trainer.

Finally, all reports of Chris Simms' recovery from a ruptured spleen are good, but does it even matter? He had one TD and seven INTs at the time of the 2006 injury, and he seems to have lost his role as the starter.

AUCTION STRATEGY

Someone will be paying top dollar for Peyton Manning, Carson Palmer, Drew Brees and Tom Brady. But you're probably better off spending that big money elsewhere. Solid options like Marc Bulger and Matt Hasselbeck can be had for much less money.

TOP ROOKIES

JaMarcus Russell and Brady Quinn might get a chance to play either right away or soon after the season begins (see: Young, Vince). But don't be fooled into thinking a top quarterback draft pick can immediately be a top fantasy option. Unless they're great runners like Young and Michael Vick, quarterbacks - including Peyton Manning, Brady, Brett Favre and, more recently, Matt Leinart -- have proven to need a year or two to figure things out. Don't overrate the rookies.

DRAFT-DAY DECISIONS

Ben Roethlisberger vs. Eli Manning. Roethlisberger is lauded for his leadership and considered an "overachiever." Meanwhile, Manning already has been labeled by many as an underachiever. It's not about expectations, though. It's about performance/raw numbers. Mr. "Bust" Eli still tied for fourth in the league with 24 TDs in 2006, and he's entering his third full season as a starter. And he has way more upside. Even though we have Big Ben ranked higher, I'd take Manning over him.

STATISTICALLY SPEAKING ...

42.0. That's the percentage of Vince Young's traditional fantasy scoring that came from running the ball, the highest of any regular quarterback in 2006. Young averaged 6.7 yards per carry and scored seven rushing TDs but finished just 30th in passer rating. Will the Titans -- or opposing defenses -- be able to cut down Young's scrambling and force him to pass more?

READY TO ROCK 'N' ROLL

Judging quarterbacks can be an inexact science. For instance, Rex Grossman threw for a respectable 23 TDs while leading his Bears to the Super Bowl. Matt Leinart, meanwhile, threw 12 INTs vs. 11 TDs on his way to a mediocre (at best) 74.0 passer rating. And yet we have Leinart ranked several spots ahead of Grossman in our 2007 rankings.

You're playing for 2007, not for 2006, and even great quarterbacks have had poor starts to their careers. But predicting when they'll take the "on ramp" to stardom -- and then having the guts to spend a mid-round pick to back up that prediction -- can win leagues. Some guys to consider:

Let's start with Leinart. He has two of the best receivers in the game (Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin) to throw to, a future Hall of Famer in the backfield (Edgerrin James) and an innovative head coach (Ken Whisenhunt) calling plays. Let's also not forget Leinart was superb in college.

Jay Cutler didn't play for a winner in college, but the Broncos and coach Mike Shanahan think he will be a winner in the pros. He has a good supporting cast, and you can bet the Broncos will put him in the best possible scenario to succeed.

Former No. 1 overall pick Alex Smith must have felt like he was thrown in the San Francisco Bay without a life jacket his rookie season. You know what? He actually has managed to swim his way to shore, and he becomes a legit fantasy option for the first time.

Finally, keep an eye on Matt Schaub and Damon Huard, two long-time backups who have performed well when called upon and finally will get a chance to pilot their own planes. Schaub, especially, has had high expectations placed upon him in Houston, in the form of a big contract. Huard will need to steal his playing time for Brodie Croyle.

FIVE LATE-ROUND SLEEPERS

1. Jason Campbell, Redskins
2. Tarvaris Jackson, Vikings
3. Josh McCown, Raiders
4. JaMarcus Russell, Raiders
5. Brady Quinn, Browns

Senior editor Brendan Roberts
Click to expand...

Source: The Sporting News, Brendan Roberts

afjay · Jul 7, 2007

I just can't see drafting Brady Quinn at all, there are way better options for a second QB.

wide right · Jul 7, 2007

afjay said: ↑

I just can't see drafting Brady Quinn at all, there are way better options for a second QB.
Click to expand...

I wouldn't touch Quinn with a 10 foot pole in FF. IMHO, he stunk at Notre Dame. Any game that had any significance (Bowl games, rivalry games, top 25 opponents) he choked in except for the USC game in 2005, which he still lost to Leinart.

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Sporting News: QB Rankings

wide right Grumpy Old Man

afjay Click. Clack.

wide right Grumpy Old Man

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Sporting News: QB Rankings

wide right Grumpy Old Man

afjay Click. Clack.

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