upside down

Discussion in 'Fantasy Football Advice' started by Samson, Aug 19, 2014.

  1. Samson

    Samson Lifetime Member Premium Member

    Started with the 7th pick. This is my attempt at upside down. I probably should have taken another RB prospect in there somewhere. Smith was a wasted pick could have gotten another RB there. Romo bye isn't till 11 so I would just be wasting a spot.

    1. Jimmy Graham (NO - TE)
    2. Julio Jones (Atl - WR)
    3. Doug Martin (TB - RB)
    4. Shane Vereen (NE - RB)
    5. Torrey Smith (Bal - WR)
    6. Joique Bell (Det - RB)
    7. Sammy Watkins (Buf - WR)
    8. Tony Romo (Dal - QB)
    9. Rueben Randle (NYG - WR)
    10. Cecil Shorts III (Jax - WR)
    11. Tavon Austin (StL - WR)
    12. Kenny Stills (NO - WR)
    13. Alex Smith (KC - QB)
    14. Buffalo (Buf - DEF)
    15. Robbie Gould (Chi - K)
     
  2. Kurt

    Kurt That Server Guy Staff Member Fantasy Guru

    THE PURPOSE Of UDD is to get your WR early, then move on to RB - you kind of hit all positions all over the place.. but look, let's keep it simple.


    In the video below, replace "big board" with "cheat sheet" - and replace "power rating" with value" - same concepts -




    draft the position which has the largest drop off in points at "next value" - this ensure you don't wait on a position when it's replacement value (next value) is much lower than the other possible position.

    example:

    John RB - Value 60 - ADP 20 - Next Value 20 ADP 34 (the replacement value for John RB is minus 40 - see that?)

    Jim WR - Value 40 - ADP 21 - Next Value 36 ADP 36 (the replacement value for Jim WR is minus 4 - see that?)

    This means draft John RB - because the next guy that you'll be looking at is projected to score 40 points less... where as at Jim WR, you can have someone that will score nearly as many points but is available a full round later!

    Also read this - http://fantasyknuckleheads.com/fantasy-football-draft-strategy-quarterbacks/ which advocates taking the top tier RB first, followed by the top tier WR and TE, followed by the top tier QB. Meaning, if a top tier RB is still around at pick 5, choose him. It also means, if you're at pick 8 and all the top tier RB are gone, it's time to look at the top tier WR/TE. And finally, if you're at pick 10 and all the top tier WR/TE/RB are gone you could consider a top Tier QB if your league is QB friendly. Also, if you have drafted with this league before you may have a hunch if one of those top tier QB will available in Round 2, in which case it might be wise to wait until round two. Like I said, read this - http://fantasyknuckleheads.com/fantasy-football-draft-strategy-quarterbacks/
     
  3. Samson

    Samson Lifetime Member Premium Member

    Thats what I was attempting to do with the sheets just addressing wr first but I think I went back to my RB safety net. I was attempting drafting based on drop off a scarcity at position.

    Think I am making mistakes when there aren't large drop offs in pts. I make the tiers in 10 pt intervals then.

    Example tier6 welker 147- crabtree 137
    Tier7 colston 136 - decker 125
    I realize and have marked there is only a 1 pts drop from crabtree to colston and a 12 pr drop from crabtree to decker. I thought having a 22 pt gap from welker to decker was to large of a disparagement(that is I may need to rethink).

    It is easy to tier when it is ray rice to Steven Jackson with a 16 pts drop.


    I am still trying to get more comfortable with using the sheets but it is getting easier to flow. I think we have 2 min in my real draft amd the mocks I have been doing are 30sec.
     
  4. Kurt

    Kurt That Server Guy Staff Member Fantasy Guru

    @Samson - you want to make 4 tiers for each position - 4

    Take the top tier guys, we all know who they are - those are tier 1 -

    Everyone else falls into tier 2,3,4
     
  5. Samson

    Samson Lifetime Member Premium Member

    I went back today and did 5 tiers and it was much easier to work with. I will try and bring it down to 4 tiers.

    What should I do with guys like lacey, Nelson, and Jeffrey? They aren't in the top tier based on consistency but don't fit in the next tier.
     
  6. Kurt

    Kurt That Server Guy Staff Member Fantasy Guru

    if they are projected (based on your league settings) to score as much as tier 1, then they're tier one

    But just because someone is in the TIER 1 OR TIER 2 Doesn't mean you should reach for them before their ADP -

    Once you have your Tiers done - highlight the guys that have a HIGH ADP number compared to everyone else in that tier - so you know to target him in the later rounds... he's the VALUE pick

    This is all explain in the "how to use this guide" link on the cheat sheet page...........
     
  7. uly5535

    uly5535 Comback Kid Joe Cool Premium Member

    Still trying to figure out how to use the draft sheets. The -(negative columns) are throwing me off. Maybe if I give an actual examples from sheet It will be more clear when there is a -negative figure.

    Which is best player to target from this list and why not the other options?

    Player ADP Value Next ADP Next Value
    Staffy 54 121 61 -124
    ARod 26 100 54 121
    Brady 74 -9 77 69
    Luck 61 -124 69 -313
     
  8. Samson

    Samson Lifetime Member Premium Member

    The Value is based on a average of a total at a position. The baseline(average) is 0 if a player will score more than the baseline the have a positive number if below it a negative number. I don't know your leagues scoring but in my leagues
    Rodger value 29
    Stafford vaule -2
    luck value -4
    brady value -25

    So Rodger is best bc he is projected to score 31 more than stafford 33 more that luck and 54 more than brady.

    Stafford and luck are the same just preference.

    Brady is dead last in projections of this group.