Cutler has been great since his week 1 debacle
Detroit @ Chicago – The obvious story here is the Lions finally ending their 19-game losing streak and looking to ride that momentum into an actual winning streak. That will not be easy this week as they go into Chicago to face a Bears offense that is starting to come together after a slow start. Jay Cutler looked like the man Chicago traded for, completing 78% of his passes for 3 TDs. Matt Forte looked a little better, coming up with 106 total yards, but still averaged just over 3 yards per carry. The Bears will look to get him rolling early in this one and hopefully open up speedsters Devin Hester and Johnny Knox downfield.
Detroit’s offense has been noticeably hampered by the inexperience of rookie QB Matthew Stafford. Stafford has completed just 53% of his passes for the season, but the more telling stat is his 5.8 yards per attempt. Even with the big-play ability of Calvin Johnson the Lions have not had much success with deep passes as of yet this season.We all know Stafford has the physical tools to throw the deep ball, so my guess is he will improve emphatically as the season progresses. That would be great news for Johnson and Kevin Smith owners, both of whom would be top-end fantasy options with a more efficient field general. Speaking of Smith, he is battling a bruised shoulder suffered late in their win over Washington in week three. He had said he would be fine and hoped to play Sunday, but he was limited in practice on Wednesday and will be a gametime decision.
Fantasy Projections
Matthew Stafford - 250 passing yards 1 TD 2 INT
Kevin Smith - 110 total yards (if active)
Calvin Johnson - 6 receptions 120 yards 1 TD
Bryant Johnson - 5 receptions 70 yards
Jay Cutler – 275 passing yards 2 TD 1 INT
Matt Forte – 140 total yards 1 TD
Devin Hester – 4 receptions 60 yards
Earl Bennett – 6 receptions 60 yards 1 TD
Johnny Knox – 2 receptions 50 yards 1 TD
Greg Olsen – 5 receptions 65 yards
Final Score – Chicago 27, Detroit 13
Tampa Bay @ Washington – After an embarrassing loss to Detroit last week Jim Zorn is officially coaching for his job this week. If Washington were to lose at home to the offensively impotent Bucs in QB Josh Johnson’s first NFL start Zorn may be gone before he leaves the stadium. The Redskin offense has been bad, but Jason Campbell has once again been an efficient passer. Campbell is completing 68% of his passes with a 7.8 yards-per-attempt average. Those kind of efficiency numbers usually lead to fantasy production, but the ‘Skins have been unable to score touchdowns from inside the redzone. Campbell could have a big game this week at home against a weak defense, or maybe Shaun Suisham will just continue to kick short field goals.
The Buccaneers were the first team to yank their starting quarterback this season after an awful offensive performance last week, getting shutout and passing for just 58 yards between two QBs. Josh Johnson did infuse some excitement into the offense, so he will get his shot with a full week of preparation as the starter. Tampa Bay had been running the ball fairly well in the first two weeks, but they managed just 28 yards rushing on only 10 rushes last week. They will have to get the running game going early to take the pressure off of their new QB, but in the end Tampa Bay just does not have the offensive weapon to win this game or warrant any fantasy starters.
Fantasy Projections
Josh Johnson- 150 passing yards 50 rushing yards 2 INTs
Cadillac Williams - 90 total yards
Derrick Ward – 50 total yards
Kellen Winslow – 6 receptions 50 yards
Jason Campbell- 275 passing yards 2 TDs
Clinton Portis – 100 total yards 1 TD
Santana Moss – 4 receptions 100 yards 1 TD
Antwaan Randle El – 6 receptions 75 yards
Chris Cooley – 5 receptions 60 yards 1 TD
Final Score – Washington 31, Tampa Bay 6
NY Jets @ New Orleans – Mark Sanchez has been excellent in his first three NFL games, but lets not call him a top ten QB just yet. His completion percentage is slightly below average at 59% and he is averaging just 200 yards per game. Yes, those are very good numbers for a rookie QB, but I do not expect a spike in production during the course of the season. Although he has thrown only 2 interceptions, he has made several questionable throws that could/should have been picked. His style is very Cutler/Romo-like, but as a rookie that will eventually lead to mistakes and ultimately will cost the Jets some games. Don’t get me wrong, I love that style of quarterbacking and I love Sanchez long-term, but I don’t see him as a top fantasy option for the remainder of this season. The defense is the squad that propels this team and they will have their hands full this week against the TD-happy Saints.
Cornerback Darrelle Revis has the potential to shut down Marques Colston, so Devery Henderson and Robert Meachem are good options this week. Pierre Thomas looked like a man on a mission last week, returning from injury to re-claim his spot atop the depth chart. He run better than Mike Bell and catches almost as well as Reggie Bush, so look for the Saints to get the ball in his hands often in this one and for the rest of the year. The Jets D has been blitzing an astounding 62% of the time thus far, but if they continue that trend against Drew Brees and all his weapons New Orleans will take advantage with some big plays.
Fantasy Projections
Mark Sanchez- 250 yards 2 TDs
Thomas Jones – 90 total yards
Leon Washington – 125 total yards 1 TD (receiving)
Cotchery/Stuckey – 4 receptions 70 yards (each)
Dustin Keller – 5 receptions 60 yards 1 TD
Drew Brees – 300 yards passing 2 TD
Pierre Thomas – 100 total yards 1 TD
Reggie Bush – 100 total yards
Marques Colston – 4 receptions 50 yards
Robert Meachem – 2 receptions 50 yards 1 TD
Devery Henderson – 4 receptions 120 yards 1 TD
Jeremy Shockey – 4 receptions 60 yards
Final Score – New Orleans 30, NY Jets 20
St Louis @ San Fransisco – Marc Bulger may not play in this one, but the Rams may be better off with Kyle Boller who lead the Rams to 17 points when they had only scored 7 in the first two games of the season. Steven Jackson continues to produce nice yardage numbers but on such a terrible team he will be limited because of a lack of touchdown opportunities. The loss of Laurent Robinson for the season is a big blow to Jackson owners as opposing defenses can pretty much ignore everyone else on the Rams offense now.
Frank Gore has been the centerpiece of the ’9ers offense this year, but now he will miss at least two games due to an ankle injury. Rookie back Glen Coffee look good in preseason, but has averaged just 1.8 YPC in the regular season. Obviously he will need to improve that greatly to replace Gore’s production. Shaun Hill has been predictably solid but restrained under Mike Singletary’s defensive-minded scheme. With Gore out San Fran may have to open the passing game up a bit, and Hill can handle the pressure if they decide to put it on him. His career TD/INT ratio is 2/1 and his growing rapport with Vernon Davis could spell a decent fantasy week for Hill.
Fantasy Projections
Bulger/Boller – 175 passing yards 2 INT
Steven Jackson – 100 total yards 1 TD
Donnie Avery – 4 receptions 70 yards
Shaun Hill – 240 passing yards 1 TD
Glen Coffee – 80 total yards
Vernon Davis – 6 receptions 80 yards 1 TD
Isaac Bruce – 4 receptions 60 yards
Final Score – San Fransisco 19, St Louis 7
"All Day" will have a great game Monday Night
Green Bay @ Minnesota – The Packer offense has not been nearly as good as expected after a good year in ’08 and a fantastic preseason. Aaron Rodgers has been inaccurate on the deep pass, which was his meal ticket last season. A big part of that has been the protection, or lack thereof. Rodgers has been sacked or hurried seemingly every time he has dropped back this season. The Packer injured and inexperienced offensive line needs to get better fast or the Vikings defense will have a field day and Rodgers will be running for his life. Greg Jennings has been oddly invisible so far, with just 8 receptions. His 26 yards-per-reception has slightly made up for it, but he has to find a way to get open and get the ball in his hands.
Story of the season so far: Brett Favre plays his first game against the Packers after spending 16 years in the Green and Gold. Actual story of this game: how many yards will Adrian Peterson rack up against Green Bay’s defense, which has given up 141 and 117 rushing yards to Cedric Benson and Steven Jackson respectively. Not to mention Peterson’s 225 yard performance the last time these teams met. I wouldn’t expect a huge game out of Favre unless the Pack somehow manages to corral Peterson.
Fantasy Projections
Aaron Rodgers- 275 passing yards 2 TDs
Ryan Grant – 75 total yards
Greg Jennings – 4 receptions 80 yards 1 TD
Donald Driver – 6 receptions 90 yards
Jermichael Finley – 3 receptions 45 yards 1 TD
Brett Favre – 200 passing yards 1 TD
Adrian Peterson- 150 total yards 2 TDs
Percy Harvin - 100 total yards 1 TD
Bernard Berrian – 3 receptions 75 yards
Visanthe Shiancoe – 4 receptions 50 yards
Final Score – Minnesota 24, Green Bay 20
