Strength Of Schedule, Fantasy Football Positional SOS
Strength of schedule is one of the most overlooked factors in fantasy football. Some people discount its value, but do your homework before you shove such data to the side, it is indeed relevant. In order to calculate SOS we use last years defensive data combined with off season moves to calculate fantasy points allowed for the 2012 season. We then run the numbers together to give you a numerical ranking for each NFL team based on their schedule. We also include SOS side by side our projected fantasy points, draft value (VBD), ADP and bye weeks in our draft guide based on your leagues points settings.
But, as they used to say in Reading Rainbow, “but don’t take my word for it“.
We also projected Detroit to have the easiest strength of schedule at QB. Matthew Stafford posted record numbers (for the Lions) in his first full season.
We projected KC to have the easiest WR SOS and Bowe had 1159 receiving yards with 81 catches and 5 TD (could have been 8 if not for his red zone drops), and then Seattle was supposed to have the easiest TE SOS, but they didn’t have a worthy TE to take advantage, or maybe no one told them to read my article last year, HA!
Aaron Rodgers had the 3rd easiest strength of schedule and posted his best passing stats to date.
The Eagles had the third easiest SOS at RB, McCoy posted 17 rushing touch downs and 1309 rushing yards.
I can play the name game for hours, point out how studs abused fantasy stats because they had an easy SOS and mere mortals became “fantasy relevant” because of easy SOS.
Are you still a nonbeliever in Strength of Schedule?
Looking at the 2012 NFL Season here’s our strength of schedule projections.
The easiest schedule has the lowest number. The hardest schedule has the highest number.
So the number “1″ equals the easiest schedule and a number “32″ equals the hardest schedule. This is the same way we display the data in our customized draft package, except in the draft package the SOS is listed next to each players name, which is very handy when drafting.
Of course you can use SOS for your fantasy football draft to help you make decisions when drafting similar positions. Or you can use it to highlight players now as “targets” for your draft, I like to do both!
Here’s some predictions and notable statements based on the positional strength of schedule listed above.
- Steven Jackson has the 2nd hardest SOS (#31), which may explain his current ADP.
- Chris Johnson, whom we feel will have a bounce back year, has the toughest SOS @ 32. Truly elite talent is normally not immensely impacted by tough SOS, but his SOS is worth noting when DeMarco Murray has the 8th easiest and Ryan Mathews..
- Ryan Mathews has the 4th easiest SOS @ RB, which could help him like it helped McCoy last year.
- Phillip Rivers has the 23rd hardest SOS
- Vernon Davis has the 2nd easiest SOS, bounce back year?, I’ll draft him at his current ADP for sure!
- You can get SOS listed next to each players name in our “come back dressing” cheat sheets.