MY MISSION STATEMENT
(or, to read more about how I detest mission statements, click here)
What frustrates me above all else are so-called fantasy advice columns that fit into one of two categories:
1) They refuse to stray from conventional wisdom, often until it’s weeks too late to save or help your season or
2) They only offer rankings commentary on the “big-name” guys that everyone knows to play anyway. Gee, Adrian Peterson will have a bounce back week and I shouldn’t bench him for Danny Woodhead? Thanks!
Each week I will examine what I consider to be the most pressing issues facing fantasy owners. I will try to focus only on issues that you may actually be concerned with, namely: marginal flex players, tough matchup decisions, and above all else, how to assimilate new information from the previous week. This is a column of the people, by the people, for the people (thanks, Abe). And as long as I’m offering oaths, I promise to always tackle the difficult questions as I see them, not be chained by conventional wisdom, and not allow traditional or draft-position bias to affect my weekly rankings.

1. Ray Rice
2. LeSean McCoy
3. Darren McFadden
4. Adrian Peterson
5. Arian Foster
6. Matt Forte
7. Fred Jackson
8. Calvin Johnson
9. Wes Welker
10. Greg Jennings
11. Maurice Jones-Drew
12. Michael Turner
13. Mike Wallace
14. Frank Gore
15. Ahmad Bradshaw

The Big Boys
This week’s top-15 should show, fairly clearly, the separation of 2011 running backs into fairly clear tiers, or at least one fairly clear tier: the top one. I think backs 1-7, above, are definitely a level above all others. I was very tempted to rank Calvin Johnson as no. 1 overall in my flex rankings this week, but I can’t help feeling that sooner or later someone will get to Matthew Stafford or at least figure out to triple-team Megatron. Maybe not. And probably not this week. Mike Wallace has been consistent, and looking at those directly below him, I feel fairly confident ranking him as highly as I have. I am low(ish) on Gore this week simply because of the matchup. I think this game could be ugly. How interesting that just a year or two ago we’d be playing any fantasy back against the Lions, and ranking them highly. I just have a sensation that this might get out of hand, and while Gore could stay involved in the passing game, keep in mind he still has Alex Smith throwing to him, even if it is on a short dump-off.

16. Cedric Benson
17. Hakeem Nicks
18. Steve Smith
19. Peyton Hillis
20. Jahvid Best
21. Jimmy Graham
22. Miles Austin
23. Steven Jackson
24. Darren Sproles
25. DeSean Jackson
26. Steve Johnson
27. BenJarvus Green-Ellis
28. Roddy White
29. Jeremy Maclin
30. Dez Bryant

Early Trends
Apart from the “Ocean” game with Jacksonville, Steve Smith has scored in double digits every week. With Newton at the helm, we have to recognize his production will continue. Same with Jimmy Graham: he is arguably the number one threat in the Saints offense, one of the best offenses in football. A quick check of what Jackie Battle did to the Colts last week should explain my ranking of Cedric Benson. While I don’t think he’s a stud, comparing him to similar backs of the same tier, I don’t like anyone else’s chances enough to rank them ahead of Benson. I’m not convinced I have the Eagles receivers in the correct order. Maclin is receiving plenty of targets and will likely cash them in for a big day sooner rather than later. While my ranking of Peyton Hillis really feels like a “name” rank, I also recognize Oakland can be run on, and what else does Cleveland have to do with the ball?

31. Jason Witten
32. Felix Jones
33. A.J. Green
34. Marques Colston
35. Jermichael Finley
36. Santana Moss
37. James Starks
38. Daniel Thomas
39. Pierre Garcon
40. Anquan Boldin
41. Aaron Hernandez
42. Reggie Wayne
43. Owen Daniels
44. Shonn Greene
45. Tony Gonzalez
46. Rashard Mendenhall
47. Santonio Holmes
48. Jordy Nelson
49. Victor Cruz
50. Rob Gronkowski

The Year of the Tight End
Go ahead, make it the thirteenth symbol of the Zodiac. 2011: the year of the tight end. If only Antonio Gates was healthy. Tony Gonzalez was held out of the endzone last week but still had six catches for 60 yards. Owen Daniels should continue to pick up the slack for Andre Johnson. Aaron Hernandez didn’t have a monster week, but if you watched the game tape you would see Tom Brady looking for him numerous times on long, down-the-field routes. If he converted one of those passes (several were simply overthrown by Brady, who will be more accurate as the two get back on track), Hernandez would have had a huge day. Also, Dallas-New England has the potential to be a shootout. I think Cruz has officially surpassed Manningham in terms of fantasy relevance. While I would rather not rank Mendenhall this low, he has too many questions. More importantly, he has not been very productive this year to-date. With Curtis Painter starting, Pierre Garcon has 7 catches for 271 yards and four touchdowns. Uhhh… wow.

51. DeAngelo Williams
52. Percy Harvin
53. Plaxico Burress
54. Earnest Graham
55. Ryan Torain
56. Tim Hightower
57. Brandon Marshall
58. James Jones
59. Deion Branch
60. Mike Thomas
61. David Nelson
62. Greg Olsen
63. LaDanian Tomlinson
64. Johnathan Stewart
65. Mark Ingram
66. Delonte Carter
67. Robert Meachem
68. Vernon Davis
69. Ryan Grant
70. Mike Williams
71. Julio Jones – officially ruled OUT for week 6
72. Jacoby Jones
73. Darrius Heyward-Bey
74. Brandon Pettigrew
75. Lance Moore

Question Marks
What will Ryan Grant’s role be in Green Bay? I think sadly he is moving into fantasy obscurity. Julio Jones would and should be much higher- I think last week was a blip- if not for questions about his hamstring. Even if he plays, he could be limited or tweak it and be done. Usually I stay away from such scenarios if I have reasonable alternatives. Delone Carter might be ranked far too low, especially if Joseph Addai is indeed out, which I expect to be the case. In a similar case, Earnest Graham may deserve moved up a few notches, especially since he is on the field in passing situations anyway. Meanwhile, where has Mike Williams gone? I’m not sure, but if this trend continues he may also soon be gone from these ranks. I don’t know what to make of the Redskins backfield, and perhaps neither does Mike Shannahan. They have three usable backs, all with talent, all who could help your fantasy roster if they were guaranteed the most of the carries. Since none of them are, we can’t trust any of them. Best of luck if you have to play them.

As always, you can tweet lineup questions to @petethegreekff. Enjoy week 6!

_PDK

But I think I am going to be pretty dead on.

The theme this week will be SOLELY on matchups, and those who do not heed that word will lose out on what should be a fantastic fantasy football day for some of these players listed below.

Let’s take a look.

TOP 5 STARTS

1. Phillip Rivers vs. Kansas City: Rivers has already had two back-to-back 300 yard games against solid opponents, and even with a turnover riddled performance against New England Sunday, Rivers still came through. The Chargers host a Kansas City team that has been CONSISTENTLY bad against the pass, making this contest another near-lock for his third 300+ yard plus outing.

2. Michael Vick vs. New York Giants: The concussion and blind side protection for Vick has become an increased problem with Philadelphia, and if it weren’t for his injury and a contest that should feature more run than pass, Vick would be atop the charts in Week 3.

3. Aaron Rodgers vs. Chicago: The Bears are a good team offensively, but are actually among the bottom dwellers in pass protection. Aaron Rodgers has elevated himself to elite status as a passer, and there is no reason to consider him any lower than a Top 3 QB this week in a pivotal divisional matchup against the Bears.

4. Tom Brady vs. Buffalo: It has become clear that Brady is playing better than ever, and so are the Bills (apparently) which has this game shaping up to be another shootout for Brady and company. Brady has hovered around the three and four spot in fantasy points for QBs for two weeks now, and if it weren’t for a banged up TE situation, he would be slightly higher.

5. Ryan Fitzpatrick vs. New England: What makes Brady’s stats so good is the fact that the Patriots pass defense is sooooooooo bad. Ryan Fitzpatrick has literally come alive in 2011 already throwing for 476 yards and seven—that’s right, SEVEN—touchdowns to one interception. The Patriots stand to lose their first game of the season, and Fitzpatrick owners are in-line for one helluva game in Week 3 here.

The rest of Week 3’s candidates do not deserve a spot on your starting roster for various reasons. Whether it is a matchup issue, inexperience, or something else, these six quarterbacks deserve to be benched if you own any of them in favor of better options.

• Matt Cassel – KC vs. SD: The Chargers are that good against the pass, and Cassel is no Tom Brady. Sit him in favor of another favorable start.
• Kerry Collins – IND vs. PIT: Collins can’t seem to throw a TD to save his life or even move the chains. I don’t think you need me to tell you to sit him.
• Alex Smith – SF vs. CIN: The Bengals are that good against the pass, and Alex Smith is that bad as a passer.
• Andy Dalton – Cin vs. SF: Too young to start right now.
• Tarvaris Jackson – SEA vs. ARI: Don’t even think about it!
• Anyone who throws for Jacksonville should be dropped altogether from your roster, including Gabbert!

Hope this helps guy, and now that I am back from my Week 2 hiatus, you are free to fire away a usual with your questions.

Good luck this week!

1) They refuse to stray from conventional wisdom, often until it’s weeks too late to save or help your season or
2) They only offer rankings commentary on the “big-name” guys that everyone knows to play anyway. Gee, Vincent Jackson will have a bounce back week and I shouldn’t play him over A.J. Green? Thanks!

Each Friday I will examine five pressing issues facing fantasy owners. I will try to focus only on issues that you may actually be concerned with, namely: marginal flex players, tough matchup decisions, and how to assimilate new information from the previous week. This is a column of the people, by the people, for the people (thanks, Abe). And as long as I’m offering oaths, I promise to always tackle the difficult questions as I see them, not be chained by conventional wisdom, and not allow traditional or draft-position bias to affect my weekly rankings.

This week, since we have lost our ranking guru, I have also incorporated a flex-rank guide into my column to help you approach your lineup decisions early in the season. 0-2 is not a fun thing to stare at all week, and if your league is anything like mine, such a record will also garner you a plethora of unwanted texts from fellow owners with low-ball trade offers, insults, and questions regarding your manhood. Let’s avoid that, shall we?

Flex Ranks
1. Ray Rice
2. Darren McFadden
3. LeSean McCoy
4. Peyton Hillis
5. Adrian Peterson
6. Arian Foster
7. Rashard Mendenhall
8. Calvin Johnson
9. Andre Johnson
10. Matt Forte
11. Jamaal Charles
12. Greg Jennings
13. Roddy White
14. Michael Turner
15. Frank Gore

Pressing Issue #1: The big boys
Obviously, if you have these guys you’re playing them. More obviously, I’m ranking Arian Foster as if he is going to play, and play the entire game. I think week one was precautionary at worst. The Texans knew there was no rush to get Foster back in the mix against a Peyton-less Indy team. Still, if we get more information or his status is downgraded before game-time, you have to adjust his value accordingly. The running backs directly below Foster, Mendenhall and Charles, have even more pressing issues: an offensive line, or lack thereof, and Detroit’s improved defense, respectively. Still, I think Mendenhall should have a nice day against a bad Seattle team. Do I have the Steelers’ back ranked too highly? Maybe, but I like the matchup and I think Pittsburgh will simply unload on the Seahawks after a week one disappointment.

I was almost willing to put Peterson outside the top-5- more a testament to how little I believe in Minnesota than anything else. If not for the Ben Tate Situation (sitcom incoming) I might have. But, the Vikes have a home game and the Bucs aren’t exactly world-eaters yet. I think he’ll be fine.

Both receiving Johnsons (“You just said receiving Johnsons. Huh huh.” OK, I get it. Thanks.) have outstanding matchups that simply cannot be ignored.

Last week, not counting Aaron Rodgers, the Packers rushed 23 times for 102 yards and two scores against the Saints. Given Forte’s added value as a pass catcher, I don’t think I am ranking him too high here, and may regret not having him even higher. While Forte isn’t a strict matchup play, I doubt you’ll see him inside my top-10 next week. Last year against the Packers, Forte had only 120 total rushing yards and 74 receiving yards in two games, with no touchdowns. Not exactly top-flight material. But this week I think he’ll perform well. I think the Falcons top wideout is a better play than their back this week, but the ranks suggest how close I think that really is. Likely you won’t have to make the call between the two, so this is purely more for my own prognosticating entertainment.

16. Beanie Wells
17. Chris Johnson
18. Maurice Jones-Drew
19. DeSean Jackson
20. Cedric Benson

Pressing Issue no. 2: Underperforming/Overperforming

I think Beanie Wells is the most interesting question in fantasy this week. Like many others, I think he is legit. I wrote plenty about him Tuesday, so I’ll sum up here: better offense, involved in passing game. Johnson and Jones-Drew have poor matchups, but you have to play them. Cedric Benson benefited from a soft matchup with the Browns, who he perennially owns, and has another less potent defense in the Broncos this week. I think he’ll continue to overperform in week 2.

21. Mike Wallace
22. Larry Fitzgerald
23. Miles Austin
24. Hakeem Nicks
25. Antonio Gates
26. Vincent Jackson
27. Jahvid Best
28. Mike Tolbert
29. Ahmad Bradshaw
30. Reggie Wayne
31. Wes Welker
32. Anquan Boldin
33. Steve Johnson
34. Brandon Marshall
35. Santana Moss

Pressing Issue 3: Who’s Who?
I may actually have Miles Austin too low, as well, if Dez Bryant doesn’t play (I’m ranking him as if he does not, and Hakeem Nicks as if he does). Let’s be honest, Antonio Gates is really the WR1 for the Chargers. He is a tight end by name only. WR1 with one of the who’s who of top quarterbacks in the league throwing to you? I’ll take that, thank you. Same rational for Welker and, yes, I’ll say it, Boldin, too.

Santana Moss has a great matchup play against a team that just got lit up by Carolina, but you don’t need me to remind you of Cam Newton’s Week One exploits. Steve Johnson is legit and has been since last season. If you’re still unfamiliar with him… where have you been

Who are these Kansas City Chiefs? I’m not sure, but I am sure they did give up 112 yards on the ground to Fred Jackson. And Jahvid Best is more talented and on a better team.

36. Tim Hightower
37. LeGarette Blount
38. DeAngelo Williams
39. Mike Williams (TB)
40. Kenny Britt
41. Pierre Thomas
42. Jermichael Finley
43. Jason Witten
44. Fred Jackson
45. Mario Manningham
46. James Starks
47. Plaxico Burress
48. Jeremy Maclin
49. Santonio Holmes
50. Shonn Greene

Pressing Issue 4: Lineup Decisions
I suspect ranks 36-50 are where I may get the most feedback, er, hate mail. I may simply be too low on Shonn Greene, but let’s be honest for a moment: since he has come into the league, what has he shown you to prove he’s worth a spot in your lineup? I think the best fantasy Jets are listed in the order I have placed them above. Am I over-reacting to Plaxico’s week one? I don’t think so. In fact, I think they will only try to get him more involved. I have a decision to make in one league between Burress and Maclin. While the Atlanta secondary looked awful against Chicago last week, the Jaguars didn’t do a whole lot to slow down, uh, Kenny-Britt-with-Matt-Hasselbeck-throwing-to-him. There are better options on Philadelphia than Maclin, and so my lineup choice may come down to him being just lower on the food chain. I’m not sure that’s true for Burress and the Jets- them having better options, that is. No, I’m not worried about Blount at all. He should do just fine this week. I think Pierre Thomas may just be the best receiving option for the Saints right now (it’s either him or Sproles), while I expect Starks to get a heavy workload in what may be a blowout early. Obviously, Manningham’s value significanly increases based on what happens with Nicks. From the latest I’ve heard, Nicks may play.

51. Felix Jones
52. Cadillac Williams
53. Dwayne Bowe
54. Steve Smith
55. Aaron Hernandez
56. Dallas Clark
57. BenJarvus Green-Ellis
58. Jordy Nelson
59. Brandon Lloyd
60. Reggie Bush
61. Devery Henderson
62. Percy Harvin
63. Vernon Davis
64. Darren Sproles
65. Joseph Addai
66. LaDanian Tomlinson
67. Robert Meachem
68. Rob Gronkowski
69. Mike Thomas (JAC)
70. Jimmy Graham
71. Nate Burleson
72. Hines Ward
73. Knowshon Moreno
74. Danny Woodhead
75. Deion Branch

Pressing Issue no. 5: The Patsies
Let’s not get too hasty. Let’s also not forget how strong the Chargers are against opposing passers. Still, week one was impressive. The New England machine may be at full steam, and the Chargers are historically bad against tight ends. Am I overvaluing Hernandez and Gronkowski? Possibly. But let’s consider, for example, nothing more than a competitive (or, some may say, higher-tier) tight end: Vernon Davis. Yes this is purely a surface evaluation- but which would you rather in your lineup: an “old reliable” who will get his targets, but has Alex Smith throwing to him or an explosive playmaker on a potential offensive juggernaut with arguably the best quarterback of the past decade hucking him the ball (with a great matchup to boot)? My, how the Moreno has fallen. I just don’t see it. A lot of Denver players are quickly becoming fantasy-irrelevant. He may be adding his name to the list sooner than we think. Nelson is the third-best option on a pass-first team and will be a weekly producer. I’ll give Bowe a mulligan… for now.

Disclaimer, End Credits
The way I approach my rankings is simple: if I had all of these guys on my team, would I start everyone above the guy I list over him and bench him for everyone below? If I can’t honestly answer “yes”, then I adjust the rankings. Cases in point: this week, apart from the Burress/Maclin decision listed above, I am also playing Hernandez over Davis at TE, Tomlinson over both Moreno and Burleson at the flex, and Fred Jackson over Felix Jones at RB2.
I believe in my choices and have the courage to make the plays. Does it always work out? Of course not, none of us have a crystal ball. But I do have a thick skin, and if the worst my league-mates can dish out is the occasional, “sux it” text (yeah guys, learn to spell), I can live with that.

Best of luck, and so on and so forth. I will also try to answer any lineup questions I get sent to my twitter: @petethegreekff

_PDK

After a strong Week-One performance against the Saints, Aaron Rodgers is our No. 1 fantasy quarterback this week.

Your usual fantasy guru Ray Tannock is taking a break from the rankings this week, so I am here to give you the lowdown on what’s going to go down in Week Two. We had a lot of surprises at quarterback in Week One. The biggest one, obviously, being Cam Newton’s breakout performance against the Cardinals. Things should settle down this weekend, but we could have a surprise or two that pop up out of nowhere.

Before I start, I would like to congratulate Ray for coming in first place in Fantasy Football Crystal Ball’s Week One Accuracy Score for Quarterbacks last week. Way to go RAY!!!!!!!

Below are my quarterback rankings going into Week Two.

TOP FIVE WEEK-TWO MATCHUPS (MUST START)

1. Aaron Rogers (GB) @ CAR: Is there any reason to not put Rodgers at No. 1 this week? I know Tom Brady had that huge game against Miami, but my money is on Rodgers to lead the charge against a Carolina Defense that gave up 309 yards and two scores against Kevin Kolb.

2. Tom Brady (NE) vs. SD: Putting Brady any lower than No. 2 would be ridiculous. The guy simply doesn’t stop at putting up big games. Hell, he even made Deion Branch look like a stud Monday night. The Chargers Defense will come back down to Earth after facing Donovan McNabb in Week One.

3. Michael Vick (PHI) @ ATL: Vick didn’t throw for very many yards (187) against the Rams, but his two passing touchdowns and 98 rushing yards made up for it. Vick showed he still has plenty left in the legs. He will need that in, what figures to be, a very emotional game against his old team the Falcons in their house.

4. Matthew Stafford (DET) vs. KC: Stafford had a huge Week One, throwing for three touchdowns against the Bucs. Kansas City didn’t have an answer for Ryan Fitzpatrick. And after losing Eric Berry to a torn ACL, Stafford should have his way with the Chiefs’ secondary.

5. Philip Rivers (SD) @ NE: The Chargers’ receivers were held in check by the Vikings, but Rivers still had a huge fantasy day, using both Mike Tolbert and Ryan Mathews in the passing game. If Chad Henne can look like a Pro Bowler against the Patriots D, Rivers should have a field day in Foxboro.

Kevin Kolb had an excellent regular-season debut.

Despite throwing for two scores in Week One against the Bengals, Colt McCoy is better off on your bench.

BEST OF THE REST:

THE BOTTOM FEEDERS:

I wish everyone the best of luck this week. If you have any questions or comments, please feel free to post below.

When you are finished with these rankings, and leaving any questions you have, make sure to check out all the other rankings we have lined up for you, with my convenient rankings link-finder below.

WR Rankings – RB Rankings – QB Rankings – IDP Rankings

Also, be sure to give our Member Services a look for all your player personalized needs which is offered at a nominal fee if you are interested.

As with all the other rankings system, this piece will be constructed highlighting the Top 5 start candidates, along with a simple base cover of the remaining 27 available tight ends.

Ready?

The Top Five

1. Antonio Gates – SD: The Vikings are going to have to feature more nickel type defensive packages against the Chargers passing game which bodes extremely well for Gates’ speed and size. While the added safety or DB is an upgrade in speed, it is a downgrade in size and tackling ability which means he’ll be money all day, especially in the red-zone.

2. Jermichael Finley – GB: If you are worried about Finley’s ankle; don’t be because he is a go for tonight’s game. The Packers are going to move him between the slot and flanked TE position which is going to wreak havoc on those Saints’ linebackers. Finley’s matchups should favor him all day long, and don’t be surprised if he hauls in two TDs tonight.

3. Vernon Davis – SF: The 49ers new WCO puts more emphasis on the TE and against a weak Seattle defense, there is nothing but upside here. Alex Smith doesn’t have much in the way at wide-out, and the Seattle defense may be heavily focusing on the backfield which should open up various lanes for Davis. If Smith wasn’t at QB, I would toy with raising him up a notch.

4. Jimmy Graham – NO: Graham will be the lone red-zone focal point, and the Packers struggled last year to cover the tight end in close quarters. But the Packers are going to have to figure out WHO they want to cover with three other receivers in the mix, and a host of running backs at New Orleans’ disposal. A win-win for Graham owners in my opinion.

5. Owen Daniels – HOU: If the Texans build a lead early and revert back to the ground game as expected, the TE position should also flourish in scoring situations as well. The Colts will have to key in on Johnson and Foster in close quarters, and that could leave Daniels as the unaccounted for man at times. This is a nice second-half fantasy player.

The Rest of the Crop

For many of you out there that are not familiar with NEXFL, the NEXFL is the National Experts Fantasy League. It is a 32-team league that includes Offense and Individual Defensive Players (IDP) and only has one “copy” of a player. There are a few other 32-team leagues out there, but many have two “copies” of a player (i.e. two teams can own Adrian Peterson, etc.). That is not the case in NEXFL. This is not a league for the unseasoned or casual fantasy fan. The draft is 23 rounds and amounts to over 730 picks that are selected through an online draft over the span of approximately a month. The purpose of NEXFL is to establish a league that is unlike any other. The concept was originally developed by Ryan “The Warden” Houston and later enhanced by George “SpiGuy” Kerwood and now Tom “Tomdiggs” Digliani in the hopes of providing fantasy football enthusiasts with a much more difficult and challenging task: Represent an NFL team and create the ultimate Fantasy Football team with precious resources. Do you have what it takes to compete?

To take a look at the teams and rosters for this season, check out the league site:

http://www14.myfantasyleague.com/2011/home/44638

Now, here is my personal analysis of this year’s teams and projections. These are my opinions and mine alone as the commissioner and avid NEXFL enthusiast.

For those that want to take part next year, start studying up on your IDP and deep sleepers. Then follow the league from afar throughout the league and let me know your interest so I can place you on a waiting list for the 2012 season. The league usually has 6-8 vacancies that open up per year.

Without further ado, here’s the league as I see it through my crystal ball.

AFC East
1. Bills – The reigning AFC Champs return with another solid squad. Vlad looks to be forming the basis for being an annual contender now after breaking through to the playoffs for the first time last season. While Alex Smith will hurt him in a division filled with exceptional QBs, the Bills’ depth and strength at WR and LB will carry them. If Dez Bryant does not pan out or if Austin Collie gets hurt then they could be in trouble. I expect big things from both, however. D’Qwell Jackson and Jonathan Vilma will carry the D and will be helped a lot by Trent Cole and Morgan Burnett. The real player to watch for the Bills is Lance Kendricks. If he stands out during the year like he has this preseason then this team could be dangerous. If one of many risks goes awry they could fall out of the playoff picture. I want to predict a better record, but with all the risks and with Alex Smith I need to temper expectations. Prediction: 8-5

2. Dolphins – Jerm has once again put together a tough squad. Joe Flacco, Mike Thomas, and Wes Welker will help carry the offense. The D has some good players in Robert Mathis, Jon Beason and Kevin Burnett. Beason’s early season injury is one to watch. If he misses time it could doom the Dolphins’ chances out of the gate in the early divisional games. I see them being slightly off of the Bills in running for the division crown. Prediction: 7-6

3. Patriots – The Pats may have a new NEXFL owner this year, but they drafted well. Michael Vick will be the first piece that will help carry this offense. However, there is some serious offensive talent here in addition to Vick with Rashard Mendenhall, Pierre Garcon and Greg Olsen. Olsen could be a gem in this league. The defense has some nice balance with AJ Hawk, Daryl Smith and Devin McCourty leading the way. Depth is an issue. There isn’t much at DL and Paris Lenon and Keith Brooking may not be starting for their NFL teams for very long. A good, but not great rookie year for the Pats. Prediction: 5-8

4. Jets – Just like the NFL Colts; this team’s status relies on Peyton Manning’s health. Manning will run this offense with Michael Turner, but a lack of talent at WR and LB could possibly hurt this team. James Jones and Plaxico Burress need to step up to help this team. Jason Witten should remain a stud. The DBs may all be cornerbacks, but having Charles Tillman, Richard Marshall and DeAngelo Hall will help offset the lack of talent at LB. Clay Matthews and Tamba Hali really need big years to help this D out. Prediction: 4-9

Summary: This division went from being one of the deepest last year to being a little thin this year in my opinion. I only see one team coming out of this division into the playoffs. Currently everyone is chasing the Bills in my opinion.

AFC North
1. Browns – Wow what a difference a year makes. Dave went from a 5-8 owner last year to maybe assembling the best team in the NEXFL this year! Colt McCoy, Maurice Jones-Drew, DeSean Jackson, Steve Smith (Car), Braylon Edwards and Fred Davis make for a damn scary offense. The defense has some great LBs for a 32-team league in Nick Barnett, Stewart Bradley and Rocky McIntosh. Even the DBs have potential with Glover Quinn and William Moore leading the way. The only real weakness on this team is along the D-Line. There is not much there. Not a bad spot to be weak. I am not looking to facing them in week 8. Prediction: 10-3

2. Ravens – Yergs is in the running every single year and this is why. He just builds a ridiculously balanced team. Shonne Greene, Andre Johnson, Julio Jones and Brandon Pettigrew will make for a great base for the offense. His defense could be scary. Carlos Dunlap and Justin Tuck make for a great pairing at DL and they are filled in the starting lineup with Geno Hayes, Clint Session and Brandon Spikes. As long as the LBs can stay healthy (no small task with Spikes and Session already missing time), then this team will be in playoff contention. Prediction: 8-5

3. Bengals – Mike may be a new owner here, but his team turned out pretty well for his first NEXFL draft. Kevin Kolb will form a lethal one-two punch with Ray Rice on offense. If Dallas Clark stays healthy, he could be the best offensive player on the team. The WRs will decide how good this team can be. Nate Burleson, Michael Jenkins and Andre Roberts will all be NFL starters, but may not offer much punch in the box score. If they step up on offense, there is definitely enough on defense (Gary Brackett, Donald Butler, Cliff Avril, Patrick Peterson, and Antrel Rolle) to help buoy this team to the edge of playoff contention. Might be a bit tough in this division, however. Prediction: 6-7

4. Steelers – George is a seasoned vet of this league. I seemingly never like his teams and half the time I am right and half the time I am dead wrong. This year I am not high again. I love Matt Schaub and Matt Forte leading the offense and I like Todd Heap with how much Kevin Kolb has historically used the TE. The WRs are suspect though. If Steve Smith (Phi) and Eddie Royal can become decent fantasy contributors, then this team will prove me wrong. If they don’t the offense could be hurting a bit. Paul Posluszny and DeMeco Ryans will help carry the defense along with Dawan Landry. However, a lack of a third starting LB could hurt the overall production. Prediction: 3-10

Summary: This division might be close and is very good at the top. I do not like the fact that my AFC South division crosses over with this division this season. I definitely see two playoff teams coming out of this division. The Browns are the team to beat here and maybe in the AFC and entire NEXFL.

AFC South
1. Colts – Just as I said last year, some people do not rate their own teams. I say that is a cop-out! I have no problem addressing the likes and dislikes of my own team. I love my starting WRs, TEs and LBs. Last year I was 10-0 with Matt Hasselbeck as my QB. This was with him having less explosive options, less of an O-Line and less of a running game in Seattle then he will have in Tennessee this year. I think he could finish around the 20th rated QB and that should be just enough to help out. RB is a problem spot yet again. I lost my best one (Ryan Williams) for the year and will now have to rely on Reggie Bush yet again. Not good in a non-ppr RB league. Greg Jennings, Kenny Britt, Michael Crabtree, Jared Cook and Rob Gronkowski should help cover me though. I may have picked the wrong NE tight end, but if so that is my biggest regret on offense. My DL was terrible last year so I tried to fix that this year. I love having Julius Peppers and Matt Roth to start the year while Derrick Morgan gets healthy. The DBs are not stellar, but they do consist of a few high tackle CBs. I clearly need Tanard Jackson to get reinstated or I am in trouble here. The LBs lack depth but are big at the top. Despite losing Travis Goethel to a season ending injury already (yes, another), I still have David Hawthorne, Daryl Washington and NaVorro Bowman. That is likely three-100 tackle LBs and two with the chance to be 120 tackle guys. I like my team but have a brutal schedule and will not touch last year’s 10-3 record. Prediction: 9-4

2. Jaguars – I am getting sick of the Jags putting together good drafts. They are clearly putting pressure on this division. I cringe at facing this offense. Matthew Stafford, Michael Bush/Daniel Thomas, Miles Austin, Danny Amendola, Jermichael Finley…are you kidding? Even the extras like Harry Douglas are serviceable. The only hope is that the LBs do not perform. Having four starting NFL LBs is a luxury in this league and the Jags have them. None are exceptional, but Sean Lee, Chris Gocong, Michael Boley and Moise Fokou are good enough to keep the D afloat. Their O is probably better than the Colts, but the D might be a tiny bit behind. Close call. Prediction: 8-5

3. Titans – This team has the potential to steal the division away from the Colts of the Jaguars. Brandon Marshall and Percy Harvin are a hell of a one-two punch in a WR ppr league. If Aaron Hernandez keeps up this tear he is on, this offense is going to kill. LeGarrette Blount will be a great non-ppr RB too. The Jacksonville QB is a bit scary. They will be a good point producer while David Garrard is in there. Once Blaine Gabbart gets in, however, the QB spot could become an issue for them. You may not get much better than Patrick Willis and Brian Cushing as a 1-2 punch. Ndamukong Suh is going to be huge too. The D does not have much beyond them, however. They could surprise, but seem a tiny bit behind the other two teams in their division above them. Prediction: 6-7

4. Texans – This team might lack some punch on offense but will be held up by a strong defense. The D is led by the aging but exceptional duo of Ray Lewis and London fletcher. If they both continue to defy father time, this LB group will be brutal to face. Quinten Mikell, Earl Thomas and Major Wright will be great DBs too. While Drew Brees and Peyton Hillis are scary, the receiving options are a bit limited. Jacoby Ford, Mohammed Massaquoi, and Denarius Moore need to step up for them to compete weekly. Brent Celek will help too. I see this team being great if their WRs pan out. If not they will not be. I don’t have much faith in the WRs so I have them lower. They could surprise if I am wrong. Prediction: 4-9

Summary: I see this division as being considerably stronger than it was last year. The Colts and Jags will likely fight at the top if they remain healthy all year. This division could easily produce two playoff teams and do not be surprised if the Titans surprise the Colts or Jags and steal the division.

AFC West
1. Broncos – Many people might be sleeping on Kevin after last year. I will not. Kevin has been the historical competitor I compare myself to every year since I have been in this league starting in 2006. Kevin won the AFC West from 2006-2009 every year. He averaged 9 wins a year in those years and almost 166 points per game. Last year he finished with the worst record in the league somehow. Well guess what folks, he’s back! Mark Sanchez will not set the world on fire, but he will be a solid and stable NEXFL QB. Joseph Addai, Larry Fitzgerald, Robert Meachem and Lance Moore will fill out a very nice NEXFL offense. The D is even crazier. Curtis Lofton, DJ Williams, Chris Harris, Bernard Pollard, Aaron Kampman and Matt Shaughnessy give this team exceptional balance. The key for them is the early season injury to DJ Williams. If his loss costs them some key division games then there will be room to make up. Prediction: 9-4

2. Chargers – Tim has quickly become a force to be reckoned with in this league. This is his third division in as many years, but he keeps putting together exceptional teams. Dwayne Bowe and Brandon Lloyd are a great set of NEXFL WRs. Kyle Orton and Jahvid Best round out the offensive talent. I am a bit concerned with this team relying so much on Denver’s passing offense under John Fox. Orton, Lloyd and Julius Thomas are three starters that could struggle in Denver’s passing offense sputters or is underutilized. Defensively they are scary. Desmond Bishop, Mason Foster and Joe Mays form maybe the best starting LB group in NEXFL. How long Mays hangs on to the starting job is key. There is not much at DL, but the DBs are loaded with undervalued talent in Melvin Bullitt, Chris Hope and Jim Leonhard. I can see them fighting with the Broncos all year long trying to win this division. Prediction: 9-4

3. Raiders – Another year and another good Raiders team. Matt Ryan is in for a huge year and the duo of Ryan Grant and Beanie Wells will give two great RBs and a nice potential trade chip as well. The WRs and TEs are a bit lacking but have a little pop. Can Jerome Simpson and Mike Williams perform despite Andy Dalton and Tarvaris Jackson QBing their teams? If not the Raiders will struggle a bit. Rolando McClain, Tyvon Branch and Eric Berry will be great for the defense. The rest is filled with NFL starters that will be good role players but not likely to be NEXFL stars. Slow and steady wins the race, but this is a tough division. Prediction: 6-7

4. Chiefs – Boy do the NEXFL Chiefs have a lot of NFL Chiefs! If the NFL Chiefs are as good as last year then great! If not then it is not so great. I expect the NFL Chiefs to slip and thus I am a bit low on the NEXFL Chiefs. Matt Cassel could be in for a rude awakening with Charlie Weis and that NE passing offense. He was great in NE under it and great with Charlie Weis running the show. Weis is gone now though. Jamaal Charles will be a beast, but the receiving options need to get healthy to have a chance. Chris Cooley is hurt. Emmanuel Sanders has been hurt. Antonio Gates is ridiculously good when he plays, but he needs to remain healthy. Steve Breaston has been hurt. There is a lot of uncertainty with the receiving options here. If any falter then the Chiefs are hurt. If they all stay healthy and come through then my prediction is way too low. Terrell Suggs and John Abraham are an awesome starting DL pair and Michael Griffin is a great DB starter. Depth beyond them is limited. James Harrison and Ernie Sims have been hurt this preseason and if Sims doesn’t start to begin the year, then this team has Harrison and Anthony Spencer and a bunch of reserve NFL LBs. It could get ugly if that happens. Prediction: 3-10

Summary: I see two likely playoff teams her and the Raiders might make a little noise and prove me wrong and make it a 3-way race. The Chiefs have a ton of potential, but they need to get healthy and stay that way to have a chance in such a tough division.

AFC- 105-103

NFC East
1. Redskins – Chris is one of the league’s wily veterans and he has built another nice squad this year. This team has few weaknesses. It is solid at QB with Jay Cutler and is built heavily around some solid WRs and LBs. Reggie Wayne and Santonio Holmes will carry this offense and if Ryan Mathews steps up the offense could be deadly. When the team gets completely healthy and has Thomas Davis, Lance Briggs and Keith Rivers, look out. I would predict an even better record except this division will beat up on each other a good amount. Prediction: 8-5

2. Cowboys – I am happy to see Andrew gone from the AFC South and he will continue to compete annually in the NFC East now. Andrew’s team is built around stable commodities like Eli Manning and DeAngelo Williams and while his WRs are a bit thin, he has Calvin Johnson and two great TEs to start in Kellen Winslow and Vernon Davis. His LB depth is exceptional too with DeAndre Levy, Jonathan Goff and Kavell Conner to start the year. By the time Conner could get passed by Ernie Sims, he might have Nate Irving starting. Plus he has Mathias Kiwanuka for insurance. He will be fighting for the division title all year. Prediction: 8-5

3. Eagles – Jack’s team here might be just as good as or better than the two I have ranked above him. He has great talent to win on offense with LeSean McCoy, Mike Wallace, Mike Williams and Kevin Boss, but his defense is where he makes up ground. He has two great D-Linemen in Charles Johnson and Jason Babin and early in the year he will have four starting LBs in Karlos Dansby, Casey Matthews, Thomas Howard and Wesley Woodyard. He has a few weeks to sort things out before DJ Williams and Keith Rivers return. Their imminent returns and his bad QB situation are the only reason I list the Eagles behind the Skins and Cowboys here. Prediction: 7-6

4. Giants – Doug is another owner that always seems to prove me wrong. I normally expect his teams to struggle only to find them near the tops of the leader board in the NFC in points scored every year. Hopefully he proves me wrong again this year. Doug has a lot riding on the Giants as always and he needs Travis Beckum to step up for him. I love Hakeem Nicks and I like AJ Green’s talent, but if Green struggles due to poor WB play then the receivers here could be hurting. The LBs are also pretty rough with only Cameron Wake and Andra Davis to write home about. Doug does make up for it with arguably the best DBs in NEXFL with Yeremiah Bell, Roman Harper and Louis Delmas. I could see him being great if AJ Green and Ryan Fitzpatrick play out. I am not 100% sold on that, however. Prediction: 5-8

Summary: I see two likely playoff teams here. These teams are going to beat up on each other all year. The division is really strong top-to-bottom. The division is seemingly always tough and this year will be no different.

NFC North
1. Lions – I had to pick next to Chris last year and it was no picnic. He has a knack for putting together some great teams. I see him being the class of the NFC North this year again. Sidney Rice’s bust potential scares me a bit, but there is enough talent on offense to make up for that with Jason Campbell, Tim Hightower, Vincent Jackson, and Early Doucet there to help. The TE situation is not pretty, lacking a starter on the roster. Luckily the defense is there to save the day. Barrett Ruud, Rey Maualuga and Pat Angerer will team with Jason Pierre-Paul to lead the D. They have a look of a division winner and high ranking playoff team. Prediction: 8-5

2. Vikings – The Vikings are another NEXFL team that often has a lot of their home team’s players. This year is no exception. The difference is the value this year. Chad Ochocinco, Anquan Boldin and Bernard Berrian will help the offense. As long as Donovan McNabb stays healthy, the offense will be ok. If he falters and Christian Ponder enters then this team is hurting as Berrian and Visanthe Shiancoe’s values would falter as well. The DBs and DLs on this team are nothing special, but the LBs are very nice, with David Harris, James Farrior and surprise preseason star Erin Henderson leading the way. If Kirk Morrison ends up starting in Buffalo at any point then this gets even better. All in all not a bad squad. Prediction: 7-6

3. Packers – I want to pick this team to basically win the division. They have a lot going for them. Aaron Rodgers is a stud and will carry them. Fred Jackson provides sneaky value at RB and Mario Manningham is set up to star this year. The problem I have is the lack of other weapons in the receiving game and the lack of oomph at LB. If Derrick Johnson and DeMarcus Ware can hold down the fort, then the Safeties with TJ Ward, Kerry Rhodes and Nick Collins can hopefully make up some ground. If there was a little bit more in the WR/TE department I could see them as a playoff team with a shot at the division. Prediction: 5-8

4. Bears – This is another team that is not barren and I hate predicting to finish this poorly. A team with Tom Brady, Cedric Benson, Mark Ingram, Brian Urlacher and Takeo Spikes is too good of a base to struggle mightily. However, there are just way too many question marks at WR and TE to stomach. When your top WRs and TEs are players that might not even start for their NFL teams (Roy Williams, Derrick Mason, Ben Obamanu, Tony Scheffler) then you know it could be a long year. Prediction: 5-8

Summary: This was a tough division for me to gauge. I don’t see the Packers or Bears being all that bad. They could flip-flop with the Vikings and all could be solid and competing to the bitter end just like last year. I just see the Lions above them for sure, that’s all. I only see one team making it out of this division into the playoffs this year. Maybe they will prove me wrong like they did last year.

NFC South
1. Buccaneers – I really like what Ty has done with his team. He is stocked strongly at QB (Philip Rivers), RB (Knowshon Moreno and CJ Spiller) and at WR (Marques Colston, Malcolm Floyd). He has Tony Gonzalez at TE but no depth behind him. He also needs one of his 3 other WRs to step up and form a decent WR3. On defense I love Elvis Dumervil and he has EJ Henderson and Von Miller to help out as well. If the Denver D struggles to pressure the QB then his team will struggle on D. They have looked good so far, so it is so-far-so-good. Prediction: 8-5

2. Panthers – Something tells me I am significantly under-rating the returning Champs. Ben Roethlisberger and Arian Foster are beats and will carry the offense. My concern is the receiving options again. This team needs both TEs to excel. Owen Daniels and Zach Miller need to be great for them to have a great offense. I don’t see much at WR to help carry the load. The defense here is what has me all types of uncertain. The DBs are top notch. George Wilson, Eric Weddle and Brent Grimes are awesome. The DL has Justin Smith and not much else. The tough part are the LBs. I do not believe in James Anderson as much as others do. The numbers speak for themselves, but I just don’t believe it. If Jamar Chaney goes back to the middle, this team could shoot up the division. If not, they have some work to do. Prediction: 6-7

3. Falcons – Welcome back Tim! Tim won the title in 2009 and then was out of the league last year. Here he is back again. I am not so sure I love the team, though. The Redskins QB will likely provide some ups and downs. Chris Johnson will be really good, and Marshawn Lynch provides some nice depth. However, if Steve Johnson struggles this team is in trouble. Johnson and Mike Sims-Walker are being relied on to carry a weak group of WRs and TEs. Defensively the DBs are great but the LBs and DL have potential and very little proven talent. I just can’t see a return to the playoffs unless everything goes right. In NEXFL it rarely does. Prediction: 5-8

4. Saints – To put it simply, I love the defense on Mike’s team and I hate the offense. The offense does not have much beyond Adrian Peterson. Cam Newton will struggle early on, none of the WRs are starters for their NFL team, and some are not even the third option for their teams. There are two very good TEs in Jimmy Graham and Dustin Keller, but both those teams have many NFL receiving options and they will be up and down week to week. It is hard to count out a team with guys like Osi Umenyiora, Chad Greenway, Stephen Tulloch, LaRon Landry and Adrian Wilson on it. I feel the need to though. With Umenyiora, Wilson and Landry dinged up, this team strength could be derailed really quickly. Prediction: 4-9

Summary: This was exceptionally hard for me. For some reason, I just simply do not like the teams in this division this year and the way they are built. I am also not an idiot and know that this division has represented the NFC in the championship three years in a row and has won the last two NEXFL Championships. These guys know what they are doing. They are likely to prove me very, very wrong. But as of now I can’t see more than one team coming out of here and I really don’t see much certainty beyond the Bucs.

NFC West
1. Rams – Dave jumped over to the NFC this year and then went on to build a great team. Sam Bradford was a nice snag when the QBs began flying off the board and Felix Jones should be good this year. He even grabbed DeMarco Murray as a handcuff, which could be big if he beats out Tashard Choice. The receiving options on this team and the LBs are great. Not only that, but they are deep. Jeremy Maclin, Lee Evans, Donald Driver, and Danario Alexander could all be starters for their NFL teams. Even Demaryius Thomas has late season upside. Ben Watson is a solid contributor and the LBs are built around James Laurinaitis, Sean Weatherspoon and Aldon Smith. Smith has looked good in his transition this preseason and the Rams can even ride Dan Conner early in the year if Jon Beason misses time. This team is primed for a run. Prediction: 9-4

2. Cardinals – For a newcomer to NEXFL, James has built a nice team. It would be even nicer if he had not lost his 23rd rounder due to his not being up to date yet on his league payment. As soon as he rectifies that and adds some depth he will be even more of a force to be reckoned with. What’s not to like about a team built around Josh Freeman, Darren McFadden, Roddy White, and solid defenders like Will Witherspoon and Bradie James. This team has the makings of one that can make some noise. Prediction: 8-5

3. 49ers – Todd’s team perplexes me. I can see them being 8-5 or 5-8. The core is solid. Jerod Mayo and Lawrence Timmons will be a nightmare to face. The question is on offense. Can Jordan Shipley be decent with Andy Dalton? Can Johnny Knox nab his starting spot back? Can Marcedes Lewis repeat last year? Can Steven Jackson stay healthy? Can the Miami QB produce? Too many questions for me to go high. But this team could easily reverse my predicted record. Prediction: 5-8

4. Seahawks – James is probably going to hate me for this. If I am not mistaken, I predicted him to be 6-7 last year and he was. Hopefully I am wrong this year. Tony Romo, Frank Gore, Santana Moss and Davone Bess will lead the offense. The season-ending injury to Tony Moeaki hurts a lot. There is not much depth on the Seahawks behind him and not much on the waiver wire. The DBs here are great but the LBs are not much to write about beyond Bart Scott….which isn’t saying much. I hope I am wrong but I see a finish similar to last year. Prediction: 5-8

Summary: This division went from last year’s joke to a strong one this year. I can easily see two teams coming into the playoffs out of here. The Rams look like they may even be the class of the NFC at this early juncture. All in all it could get wild in the NEXFL NFC West this year.

NFC- 103-105