Mock NFL Draft Picks, get your fix and sound off!

With the 2012 NFL Draft only a couple days away, we have recently completed our full 32-team Mock Draft list for your viewing pleasure! The lockout last year may have shortened the 2011 offseason. But for us Fantasy Knuckleheads a lot happened in a short period of time. T.O. didn’t get signed, Moss didn’t play, Kenny Britt got hurt, who I like as a 2012 Sleeper, and MJD proved an ACL tear can’t stop him. Now enter the 2012 NFL Draft. A time when teams blow a chunk of cash on prospects that never pan out, and fans get to express what they think is their teams needs. Well, Fantasy Knuckleheads is here to help you explore the players your team may draft, how we feel about the draft prospects and so much more from our “fan experts”.

So let’s kick it off with Team by Team – Full 7 Round Mock Drafts

Here’s our Round By Round Coverage

Today’s article is going to focus on my 25th ranked prospect for April’s draft, Brandon Weeden from Oklahoma State.

Strengths

Size: Weeden is your prototypical quarterback in terms of size, standing at 6’4″ and 214 pounds. He will have absolutely no issues looking over the top of the defensive front and finding throwing lanes between the hashes.

Arm Strength: He can make every single throw on the football field, including putting a tremendous amount of zip on the longer passes. Weeden will be able to throw across the field to the sidelines without much of an issue, something that a vast majority of NFL quarterbacks tend to struggle with.

Accuracy: One of the things that stood out most to me in watching game film of Weeden is the fact that he understands when to put loft on the ball. He is extremely good laying the ball in between over the top coverage and linebackers dropping back. That is something that really cannot be taught. He does a great job putting the receiver in the situation to be able to make plays after the catch, another huge positive.

Decision making: Weeden is able to make quick decisions when facing pressure up the gut. This will only be magnified when he plays under center rather in out of the shotgun at the next level.

Weaknesses

Age: I am not too entirely sure that his age (29) could be categorized as a “weakness.” In fact, it shows that he has the maturity and experience to be successful from the get go in the NFL. With that said, teams are going to be hesitant to spend a top pick on a quarterback of that age.

Mechanics: As with most rookie quarterbacks, mechanics are an issue in regards to Brandon Weeden. He does tend to have trouble stepping up in the pocket and keeping his head concentrated down field. This causes him to hurry throws when under pressure, which leads to some mistakes.

Athleticism: Weeden runs a 4.92 forty, which puts him right up there with Nick Foles as one of the slowest quarterbacks in the draft. He will not beat you with his legs and needs to good offensive line in front of him.

Draft Status: Currently projected to be a second round pick. Teams like the Seattle Seahawks will take a look in the first round if  Weeden has a good NFL Scouting Combine and Oklahoma State Pro Day.

Player Comparison: Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons.

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If I showed you the next page you would have seen the last of 11 week 3 match-ups which was a $9 win in a heads up expert only game. Expert only means you get less $$$ to play with. Expert get $55,000 - standard gets $60,000 and Beg. get $65,000

Here is what I do to find the excellent match ups headed into the week and rank them accordingly.

1. Get the top 10 or so fantasy points allowed by position (listed below)
2. Find the obvious studs with great match ups (high dollar value guys on fanduel)
3. Find the “flex starts” with great match ups that present high upside (low dollar value guys on fanduel)
4. TOP 10 Teams allowing the most fantasy points to opposing QB’s this year.

You can use this method to determine who is a great weekly fantasy play based on match up, helpful for you guys without a backup for Antonio Gates, more on that later.

I’ll start at the Quarterback position.

Eli Manning comes to mind over the next several weeks, this week he face the Cardinals who allow the 8th most fantasy points to Quarterbacks.

TOP 10 Teams allowing the most fantasy points to opposing QB’s this year.

1. New England Patriots vs. QB – 1,163 yards – 6 TD
2. Green Bay Packers vs. QB – 1,153 yards – 6 TD
3. Oakland Raiders vs. QB 937 yards 6 TD
4. Miami Dolphins vs. QB 957 yards 8 TD
5. St. Louis Rams vs. QB 799 yards 7 TD
6. Buffalo Bills vs. QB 829 yards 7 TD
7. New Orleans Saints vs. QB 929 yards 7 TD
8. Arizona Cardinals vs. QB 884 yards 4 TD
9. Kansas City Chiefs vs. QB 796 yards 8 TD
10. Minnesota Vikings vs. QB 956 yards 5 TD

QB Match-ups to exploit in week 4 are:

• Jason Campbell faces the New England Patriots who, as you see above, are allow a sever amount of fantasy stats to opposing QB’s.
• Rex Grossman AKA “Sexy Rexy” have a juicy match-up against St. Louis Rams who rank 5th in most fantasy points allowed.
• Andy Dalton should bounce back this week versus the Bills, who rank 6th in points allowed to opposing QB’s.
• Eli Manning comes to mind over the next several weeks, this week he face the Cardinals who allow the 8th most fantasy points to Quarterbacks. Excellent Value on Fanduel.

The obvious starter with exceptional match ups:

• Tom Brady obviously.. Oakland just sweetens the pot.
• Phillip Rivers is another no brain-er with a sweet match-up versus Miami who ranks 4th in most points allowed.

Here are are WEEK 4 Quarterback Rankings

Either Cedric Benson (if allowed to play) or Bernard Scott should have success this week versus Buffalo however, I'd only start Bernard Scott in PPR leagues as the Bengals will have to play from behind.

TOP 10 Teams allowing the most fantasy points to opposing RB’s this year.

1. Philadelphia Eagles vs. RB 394 yards 2 TD, 15 Catches for 185 yards 3 TD
2. Kansas City Chiefs vs. RB 360 yards 5 TD, 16 Catches for 153 1 TD
3. Oakland Raiders vs. RB 305 yards 2 TD, 24 Catches for 283 2 TD
4. St. Louis Rams vs. RB 399 yards 2 TD, 19 Catches for 187 1 TD
5. Minnesota Vikings vs. RB 190 yards 3 TD, 27 Catches for 256 2 TD
6. New York Jets vs. RB 356 yards 4 TD, 15 Catches for 106 0 TD
7. Buffalo Bills vs. RB 292 yards 2 TD, 25 Catches for 152 2 TD
8. New England Patriots vs. RB 202 yards 2 TD, 30 Catches for 271 1 TD
9. Indianapolis Colts vs. RB 315 yards 4 TD, 11 Catches for 73 0 TD
10. Atlanta Falcons vs. RB 277 yards 2 TD, 18 Catches for 165 1 TD

RB Match-ups to exploit in week 4 are:

• Dexter McCluster faces the Vikings BUT WAIT they got back some players in Week 3 and picked up the run stuff. Only consider McCluster in PPR leagues as a strong FLEX.
• BenJarvus Green-Ellis / Stevan Ridley are both good flexes this week versus the porous Raiders. I like Ridley this week to get plenty of chances as New England burns the clock holding a lead.
• Frank Gore could easily bounce back this week against the Eagles who are allowing the most points to RB’s this year.
• Tim Hightower should toss the Rams salad this week, they rank 4th in points allowed.
• LeGarrette Blount should have a bounce back week against Indy, but don’t keep your hopes to high.
• Either Cedric Benson (if allowed to play) or Bernard Scott should have success this week versus Buffalo however, I’d only start Bernard Scott in PPR leagues as the Bengals will have to play from behind.

The obvious starter with exceptional match up:

• A. Peterson is an obvious start any week but this week is exceptional as he faces the Chief’s who can’t stop tumbleweed from blowing across the field.

Here are our Week 4 Running Back Rankings

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TOP 16 Teams allowing the most fantasy points to opposing WR’s this year.

Denarius Moore is poised for a break out game.

1. New England Patriots vs. WR 48 catches for 794 yards and 4 TD
2. Green Bay Packers vs. WR 42 catches for 660 yards and 4 TD
3. St. Louis Rams vs. WR 34 catches for 535 yards and 6 TD
4. Miami Dolphins vs. WR 37 catches for 578 yards and 5 TD
5. New Orleans Saints vs. WR 39 catches for 525 yards and 3 TD
6. San Francisco 49ers vs. WR 36 catches for 514 yards and 5 TD
7. New York Giants vs. WR 41 catches for 606 yards and 3 TD
8. Baltimore Ravens vs. WR 50 catches for 600 yards and 3 TD
9. Arizona Cardinals vs. WR 41 catches for 581 yards and 3 TD
10. Houston Texans vs. WR 37 catches for 503 yards and 4 TD
11. Kansas City Chiefs vs. WR 37 catches for 484 yards and 4 TD
12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. WR 44 catches for 582 yards and 2 TD
13. Oakland Raiders vs. WR 45 catches for 519 yards and 3 TD
14. Buffalo Bills vs. WR 36 catches for 517 yards and 3 TD
15. Denver Broncos vs. WR 42 catches for 517 yards and 3 TD
16. Carolina Panthers vs. WR 20 catches for 437 yards and 4 TD

WR Match-ups to exploit in week 4 are:

• Brandon Lloyd and Eric Decker should have a good day against Green Bay who allow the 2nd most fantasy points to WR so far this year.
• Oakland has some nice flex plays lined up for you this week but gamble at your own risk here, while someone in Oakland is going to have a great day it’s hard to predict. I expect the Pats to stack the box and force Campbell to pass, Denarius Moore is poised for a break out game.
• Santana Moss WILL have a big day versus the Rams. I don’t think the Rams will move the ball on offense and Washington will be able to air it out versus their weak secondary who ranks 3rd in points allowed.
• Minnesota has a possible deep sleeper in PPR formats, deep leagues only, Michael Jenkins is on the rise as a nice match-ups based flex starter and this week he gets the Chiefs who rank 11th in points allowed.

More obvious starters with great match-ups

• Larry Fitzgerald versus NYG
• Vincent Jackson, especially if Gates returns to the line-up. Miami allows the 4th most points to WR.
• Hakeem Nicks / Mario Manningham or Victor Cruz depending on Manninghams status – Arizona allows the 9th most fantasy points to WR.

Greg Olsen has a great match-up versus the Bears, nice flex play in your a Antonio Gates owner in a time of need.

TOP 10 Teams allowing the most fantasy points to opposing TE’s this year.

1. Miami Dolphins vs. TE 25 catches for 315 yards and 3 TD
2. San Diego Chargers vs. TE 14 catches for 180 yards and 4 TD
3. Chicago Bears vs. TE 19 catches for 237 yards and 3 TD
4. New Orleans Saints vs. TE 14 catches for 259 yards and 2 TD
5. Kansas City Chiefs vs. TE 12 catches for 159 yards and 3 TD
6. Cincinnati Bengals vs. TE 17 catches for 217 yards and 2 TD
7. Dallas Cowboys vs. TE 15 catches for 214 yards and 2 TD
8. Jacksonville Jaguars vs. TE 21 catches for 207 yards and 2 TD
9. Green Bay Packers vs. TE 9 catches for 178 yards and 2 TD
10. Buffalo Bills vs. TE 13 catches for 164 yards and 2 TD

• Greg Olsen has a great match-up versus the Bears, nice flex play in your a Antonio Gates owner in a time of need.
• Marcedes Lewis is a deep sleeper in DEEP leagues – he faces the Saints who can’t cover TE and you can bank that the Saints will score a lot of points.
• Randy McMichael (If Antonio Gates sits out) has a DECENT match-up versus Miami, but they’re ranked number one in points allowed due to the thrashing they took in week 1 versus the Pats.
• Jermaine Gresham is another Antonio Gates weekly flex replacement – the Bungles will have to air it out versus the Bills who rank 10th in points allowed.

More obvious starters with great match-ups this week:

• Jimmy Graham get the Jags who have trouble with tall TE’s.
• Scott Chandler gets the Cincinnati Bengals and they can’t cover TE either, rankings 6th in points allowed. Chandler has a TD in every game this year, it won’t stop this week.

Bouns Round for Kickers – top 10 teams allowing the most Kicker Fantasy Points

1. Cleveland Browns vs. K 10.7 points allowed
2. Kansas City Chiefs vs. K 10.3 this week they face Ryan Longwell
3. Indianapolis Colts vs. K 10.0 points allowed
4. Atlanta Falcons vs. K 9.7 points allowed
5. New Orleans Saints vs. K 9.3 points allowed
6. Chicago Bears vs. K 9.0 points allowed
7. Green Bay Packers vs. K 8.7 points allowed
8. Denver Broncos vs. K 8.7 this week they facec Jason Hanson
9. Dallas Cowboys vs. K 8.3 points allowed
10. Seattle Seahawks vs. K 8.3 points allowed

Locks this week are:

Ryan Longwell and Jason Hanson – both kickers present favorable TOP 10 match-ups this week and they’re in the TOP 10 in regards to FG and XP attempts.

Jimmy Smith could be a nice addition to your fantasy team as he starts in Baltimore this year

Each year, rookie defensive backs get selected progressively higher in the NFL Draft. Why? The simple answer is that the NFL has morphed into a passing league. You can still win with defense and playing ball control offense holding on to the football. It has just become harder. The Atlanta Falcons found that out in the playoffs against the Saints last year. So this year, the Falcons spent a ton of assets to move up in the draft to select Julio Jones in an effort to add another game-breaking offensive piece. On the flip-side, teams are constantly trying to counter these moves by adding pass rushers and good defensive backs in order to slow down these explosive offenses. This brings me to the entire point of this article:

Rookie Defensive Backs Are a Gold Mine

Every year, some rookie defensive backs provide exceptional value and return on investment (ROI) for their fantasy owners as long as the owners get them late and do not overpay based on the hype. This article identifies some guys to target that could give you the best ROI amongst the rookie DBs this coming season. The guy I am targeting: Jimmy Smith, CB, Baltimore Ravens.

Now before I get into why I like Jimmy Smith, let me throw out some numbers to demonstrate the value you can gain by selecting the right rookie defensive back.

In the past three seasons, some rookie DBs have come out and delivered solid performances for fantasy teams. A lot of times, these DBs were not the highest selected rookie DBs either.

2008: Brandon Flowers (12^th), Brandon Carr (13^th), and Tracy Porter (30^th) were amongst the top 30 cornerbacks in terms of points per game. Flowers cracked the top-30 overall amongst DBs in 2008 when he finished 27^th.

2009: Jerraud Powers (12^th) and Jacob Lacey (13^th) were amongst the top-15 cornerbacks in terms of points per game. Louis Delmas was the best rookie safety and Delmas and Lacey finished 12^th and 25^th amongst all defensive backs that season.

2010:  Alterraun Verner (5th) and Devin McCourty (8th) were amongst the top-10 in ppg amongst cornerbacks.  TJ Ward, Eric Berry, and Earl Thomas were all top-50 DBs as well. Overall, Ward (3^rd), Verner (13^th), Berry (20^th) and McCourty (22^nd) finished in the top-25 overall DBs as rookies.

As you can see, 2010 was a particularly good year for rookie DBs. Part of that was the level of talent and part of it was the opportunities those players had. This is always the formula for success amongst almost any fantasy player: talent + opportunity = success.

The other thing to take a close note of is that rookie cornerbacks can fair very well in the fantasy world. While Safeties usually rule the IDP world, rookie CBs can be fantasy gold since most experienced NFL quarterbacks will key on a rookie corner and try to pick them apart early and often.

Smith will get his chances for Baltimore. Will he for your fantasy team?

This leads to my endorsement of Jimmy Smith of the Ravens as a deep IDP sleeper candidate this coming season. Smith has some serious talent. By most scouts’ assessments, he was THE best cover corner available in this year’s draft. Yes, better then Patrick Peterson. Smith fell in the draft due to some character issues, but couldn’t have landed on a better team. The Ravens have no reservations taking on players with perceived or previous character issues. They have faith in their locker-room and players like Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, and Haloti Ngata will not let Smith get out of line.  Below is a video showing just a preview of Smith’s ability to play the run and his closing speed in pass defense.

One thing that I noticed in quite a few highlights I have seen of Smith is that while he has great cover skills, he is also willing to stick his nose in the backfield to support the run. Smith is quite big for a cornerback, standing at 6’2” and 211 pounds. He can match up against bigger, more physical receivers, yet has the coverage skills to run with the quicker WRs (4.4 speed).

The talent is there, but the big thing for me is the opportunity Smith has. The Ravens have already come out and said they expect him to start, play early and often, and maybe even shadow opposing teams’ #1 receivers.  I fully expect teams to challenge him and go at him often. Since Smith has great ball skills, this could mean big opportunities for turnovers. However, even if he doesn’t net the turnovers, Smith is physical enough to rack up some serious tackles as teams throw at him.

Smith has the ball skills to add some turnovers as a rookie

The Ravens’ D is excellent at stopping the run, and as a result teams throw on the Ravens a lot. Last season, the Ravens’ defense was 3^rd in the league in passing attempts against  per game at 37.2 attempts per game. If that continues, Smith could prove to be this year’s CB that puts up DB2 numbers and he will likely come at the DB5 price or later. Keep an eye on him if you are looking for a deep IDP sleeper at defensive back.

Other rookie DBs to consider (although some will not offer much in the realm of ROI since they will be over drafted based on hype):

Patrick Peterson, CB, AZ- Peterson will be over hyped and over drafted in many fantasy leagues, but he does have the exceptional talent to put up numbers and plays across from Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, so he will get his chances. He will have to share a lot of tackles with Adrian Wilson and Kerry Rhodes, however.

Rahim Moore, S, DEN- Moore could be a huge stud if Brian Dawkins is not re-signed and Moore is given the starting SS job in Denver. Play the wait-and-see game for now, but keep him firmly on your radar.

Jaiquawn Jarett, S, PHI- Jarett is slated to step right in to Quintin Mikell’s SS spot and should put up some really good numbers there. If he is hanging around later in drafts and is not drafted too highly, grab him as a DB3 and stash him for when he rises.

Brandon Harris, CB, HOU- Harris has the talent and Houston certainly has the need. Kareem Jackson disappointed in Houston last year, and if Glover Quinn moves to safety this year, Harris could see a lot of playing time. Peyton Manning and other veteran QBs will pick on him and Harris should put up decent numbers if that happens.

Aaron Williams, CB/S, BUFF- There is some question whether Buffalo will play Williams at corner or at safety. He is talented enough to succeed at either position and Buffalo has a need at both. That said, if he somehow lands at SS next to Jarius Byrd (unlikely, but possible) then he becomes a must-own prospect. He is still worth a late round stash in bigger leagues or dynasty leagues either way.

Curtis Brown, CB, PIT- Brown could see some significant time if Pittsburgh loses Ike Taylor and he is thrust into a larger role than was anticipated.  Brown is not worth drafting in most leaguers, but is worth monitoring as the season approaches and progresses.

Prince Amukamara, CB, NYG- Prince has some serious talent, but is currently lacking the opportunity in NY. He is currently a nickel DB at best, but if he ends up cracking that starting lineup anytime this season, then the Prince could end up being a steal. He is definitely worth keeping track of in dynasty leagues, especially those that require you to start CBs.

Smith can tackle and is a willing run defender......not something you see in many rookie cornerbacks

As everyone knows, the Atlanta Falcons basically gave up the farm for WR Julio Jones, but it wasn’t a bad move at all when it comes to fantasy football.

With top notch fantasy weapons such as Roddy White and Matt Ryan, Julio Jones is bound to fit right in to an offense that will more-than-likely put more emphasis on the pass game than ever before.

But Jones’ presence also adds value to White and the running game.

If Jones takes off early—which he should—then defenses are going to be forced to spread the coverage field to compensate for two lethal downfield threats, and because of that the ground game should have more opportunities for big gains and scores since there will be less defenders in the box.

Other 2011 NFL draft picks that the Falcons offer in fantasy are OLB Akeem Dent and RB Jacquizz Rogers.

Dent has far more immediate value here than Rogers.

Dent is expected to make a hard push for the middle linebacker spot in Atlanta, with immediate contributions on special teams—don’t be the guy who underestimates special teams value in a player.

The linebacker position in Atlanta is a hot spot for fantasy points, due to their role and cover style of play—similar to Carolina—so Dent is a guy you definitely want to keep an eye on as you approach your fantasy football draft.

Rogers is expected to be a change of pace / third down back by mid-season. While he is an interesting character to keep an eye on, he’s not projected to hold much fantasy value in 2011.

One note to suggest:

While the Atlanta Falcons did manager to grab Akeen Dent, and offer nice IDP options in Sean Weatherspoon, Stephen Nicolas and Thomas DeCoud, the defense as a whole is still an average fantasy team defense without a true threat at defensive end, so look elsewhere for a team defense when drafting.

Despite being one of the better AFC teams, there are many improvements to be made in order to get the team some much-needed January success. However, if the team plays its cards right, by this time a year from now Atlanta won’t even remember some of these question marks and the Falcons may just be 2011-12 Super Bowl contenders. Below I present the three biggest areas of need.

Wide Receiver and/or Tight End

You wouldn’t know it judging by his play, but Matt Ryan needs more to work with. Roddy White’s play has been incredible, but at wideout that’s pretty much all they have. Michael Jenkins has yet to really contribute anything to this team, and while Harry Douglas has shown a few flashes, the team has yet to see enough out of him to know if they can actually count on him. Compounding the problem is the fact that Tony Gonzalez is deep in the twilight of his career. Netting just 70 grabs last year, Gonzalez compiled a career-low 9.4 yards per catch. His 70 catches and 6 touchdowns show that he was still a useful player last year, but the numbers show that Gonzalez is trending downward and that the Falcons need to start considering drafting a replacement.

Left Tackle

Sam Baker was supposed to be a really good pass protector coming out of Southern California. So much for that. Baker has become perhaps the biggest liability on Atlanta’s offensive line, and the Falcons need an upgrade to allow Ryan more time in the pocket. The Falcons gave up the third fewest sacks last year with 23, but that’s not going to stop them from looking at potential upgrades in the earliest rounds of the draft. Because this isn’t the biggest hole on the roster, it may not be addressed until round 2 or later. However, if the opportunity to pick Wisconsin’s Gabe Carimi arises, I have to think they will jump at it and snatch him up.

Defensive end

Atlanta’s weak pass rush generated just 31 sacks last year, which was just barely outside the bottom 10 in the league. John Abraham had another productive season with 13 sacks last year, but they’ve got practically nothing to complement him. Starting left end Kroy Biermann registered only 36 tackles and a paltry 3 sacks in 2010, so he is the weakest link. If not a wide receiver, Atlanta will be looking for an upgrade at defensive end in the first round, with Brooks Reed a potential target of interest. If the Falcons instead wish to upgrade with a rush linebacker, they could go with Akeem Ayers or Cameron Heyward, however with a 4-3 defense there is no need.

Nothing’s ever easy in this game, is it?

But for Aaron Rodgers, the past two weeks have in fact looked rather easy as he masterfully weaved his best career performance against the favored Atlanta Falcons two weeks ago, only to follow that performance with a stellar outing against a Chicago Bears team that seemingly had no answer for Aaron Rodgers’ methodical aerial attack.

Both the Green Bay Packers and the Pittsburgh Steelers are playing their best football right now which is perfect timing, but for the Packers things just look different. With each passing contest you get a sense of entitlement—as if Aaron Rodgers is quietly saying “It’s my turn; it’s my time.” You get the notion that this team and this quarterback are simply unstoppable right now—as if the inevitable is beginning to materialize.

Since his first snap under center, Aaron Rodgers has done more than enough to prove he is among the elite quarterbacks of the league, but without a Super Bowl ring his elite status will never be truly recognized. Since getting the nod as the new leader of this storied franchise, Aaron Rodgers has always played in the perpetual shadow of Brett Favre—but again—without a Super Bowl ring that shadow will always follow him.

But there is no denying the fact that Aaron Rodgers can in fact blow through the Steelers’ vaunted second ranked defense (number one ranked in postseason play) and capture his first career Championship ring.

Remember, we are talking about a guy who has thrown for 12,394 yards and 86 touchdowns in his last three seasons as a starter. We are talking about a team that has more weapons than any one defense can account for, and we are talking about a quarterback who took a significantly injured team through the mire only to lead them to the “promise land”.

To be honest, there really is only one thing left to do for Rodgers.

But defeating the Steelers will take more than just grit, luck and cleverness. It’ll take determination, flawless execution and a single minded approach built on team unity. Defeating Big Ben’s Band of Brutes will also take the cool hand of a leader who has shown himself to be unwavered.

Everything that defines Aaron Rodgers.

On February 6th, 2011 two of the most storied franchises in NFL history will take center stage in an epic battle for league supremacy. One team will be led by a battle tested ring bearer; the other team will be led by a rising star forged by his own battles in search of his own “precious”.

And as Napoleon once said: “Victory is always possible for the person who refuses to stop fighting.”