Dre’ Kirkpatrick was considered a lock to go in the top ten when the 2011 season started, but a sub-par year at Alabama coupled with off-field issues, has caused his draft stock to plummet. Today, I am going to give you a fully detailed scouting report for the talented young player.

No. 24 on my big board.

Strengths

Physical: Kirkpatrick is going to be a really good press cover man at the next level. He gets extremely physical, throwing receivers off their route early in the play. This causes tremendous issues in regards to timing on offense. He is also a willing tackler in the run game, which brings back memories of a player like Charles Woodson. Won’t be a one-dimensional player in the NFL.

Size: This is something that NFL front office take seriously. The new breed of receivers have caused tremendous fits for smaller corners and teams utilizing the zone coverage on the outside. We see this a lot with fades in the end zone and short outs towards the sidelines. They won’t be able to do that against Dre’ Kirkpatrick because of his frame. This is a corner that stands at 6’2″ and uses every inch of the frame to shield receivers from the ball.

Ceiling: This is what separates first round prospects from those of the mid-round variety, ceiling. Rarely do you see teams say “that’s going to be a marginal starter, lets go for him.” Due to superb athletic ability and a massive frame for a defensive back, Kirkpatrick has a tremendous amount of upside. In fact, it could be stated he has one of the highest ceilings of any defensive players in the draft.

Not scheme specific: In order to be successful, even at the college level, a corner must have some man coverage skills. While this wasn’t a strength of Kirkpatrick’s, he wasn’t completely lost in this aspect of his game. What makes the former Alabama star compelling is the fact that he is great in press coverage. This will make his draft stock that much more valuable because teams running both defensive schemes will take a look at him.

Weaknesses

Technique: Kirkpatrick is extremely raw in this aspect of his game. He isn’t fluid in the hips, gets turned around a great deal, and struggles with on-ball ability. Three huge red flags that front offices are going to notice moving forward. If your not running fluidly down field, you are vulnerable to the comeback route and the double move. Two routes that are run a majority of the time in the NFL. Unlike college, receivers don’t go simply fly most of the time. Defenses may need to rotate coverage over to Kirkpatrick’s side, which causes a tremendous amount of issues. He needs to get this fixed in relatively short order.

Reaction skills: I had just mentioned on-ball ability. Due to the fact that Kirkpatrick likes to play press coverage a lot, he has issues adjusting mid-route. Once again, this makes him vulnerable to the big play. It also gives the quarterback a much larger window to throw into.

Character issues: There really weren’t any character issues prior to Kirkpatrick’s arrest for marijuana possession. While it isn’t like he was popped for intent to sell or another felony charge, teams are definitely going to take notice of this situation. He will have to interview well at the NFL Scouting Combine and stay out of trouble for this not to effect his draft stock. Organizations are looking much closer at character issues into today’s NFL, so this could hurt him.

Raw: Technique wise, Kirkpatrick makes you want to cringe. With that said, he did perform at a high level against elite competition in the SEC. Don’t expect this to be the case in the NFL if this isn’t fixed. He needs to hone this in order to become a true starter at the next level. This also leads me to believe that a switch to safety is a real possibility.

Draft status: Currently the fifth corner on my board behind Morris Claiborne, Janoris Jenkins, Stephon Gilmore and Jamell Fleming. Will be a first round pick, but postseason events will dictate where he goes in the initial round.

Player comparison: Jimmy Smith, Baltimore Ravens

If I showed you the next page you would have seen the last of 11 week 3 match-ups which was a $9 win in a heads up expert only game. Expert only means you get less $$$ to play with. Expert get $55,000 - standard gets $60,000 and Beg. get $65,000

Here is what I do to find the excellent match ups headed into the week and rank them accordingly.

1. Get the top 10 or so fantasy points allowed by position (listed below)
2. Find the obvious studs with great match ups (high dollar value guys on fanduel)
3. Find the “flex starts” with great match ups that present high upside (low dollar value guys on fanduel)
4. TOP 10 Teams allowing the most fantasy points to opposing QB’s this year.

You can use this method to determine who is a great weekly fantasy play based on match up, helpful for you guys without a backup for Antonio Gates, more on that later.

I’ll start at the Quarterback position.

Eli Manning comes to mind over the next several weeks, this week he face the Cardinals who allow the 8th most fantasy points to Quarterbacks.

TOP 10 Teams allowing the most fantasy points to opposing QB’s this year.

1. New England Patriots vs. QB – 1,163 yards – 6 TD
2. Green Bay Packers vs. QB – 1,153 yards – 6 TD
3. Oakland Raiders vs. QB 937 yards 6 TD
4. Miami Dolphins vs. QB 957 yards 8 TD
5. St. Louis Rams vs. QB 799 yards 7 TD
6. Buffalo Bills vs. QB 829 yards 7 TD
7. New Orleans Saints vs. QB 929 yards 7 TD
8. Arizona Cardinals vs. QB 884 yards 4 TD
9. Kansas City Chiefs vs. QB 796 yards 8 TD
10. Minnesota Vikings vs. QB 956 yards 5 TD

QB Match-ups to exploit in week 4 are:

• Jason Campbell faces the New England Patriots who, as you see above, are allow a sever amount of fantasy stats to opposing QB’s.
• Rex Grossman AKA “Sexy Rexy” have a juicy match-up against St. Louis Rams who rank 5th in most fantasy points allowed.
• Andy Dalton should bounce back this week versus the Bills, who rank 6th in points allowed to opposing QB’s.
• Eli Manning comes to mind over the next several weeks, this week he face the Cardinals who allow the 8th most fantasy points to Quarterbacks. Excellent Value on Fanduel.

The obvious starter with exceptional match ups:

• Tom Brady obviously.. Oakland just sweetens the pot.
• Phillip Rivers is another no brain-er with a sweet match-up versus Miami who ranks 4th in most points allowed.

Here are are WEEK 4 Quarterback Rankings

Either Cedric Benson (if allowed to play) or Bernard Scott should have success this week versus Buffalo however, I'd only start Bernard Scott in PPR leagues as the Bengals will have to play from behind.

TOP 10 Teams allowing the most fantasy points to opposing RB’s this year.

1. Philadelphia Eagles vs. RB 394 yards 2 TD, 15 Catches for 185 yards 3 TD
2. Kansas City Chiefs vs. RB 360 yards 5 TD, 16 Catches for 153 1 TD
3. Oakland Raiders vs. RB 305 yards 2 TD, 24 Catches for 283 2 TD
4. St. Louis Rams vs. RB 399 yards 2 TD, 19 Catches for 187 1 TD
5. Minnesota Vikings vs. RB 190 yards 3 TD, 27 Catches for 256 2 TD
6. New York Jets vs. RB 356 yards 4 TD, 15 Catches for 106 0 TD
7. Buffalo Bills vs. RB 292 yards 2 TD, 25 Catches for 152 2 TD
8. New England Patriots vs. RB 202 yards 2 TD, 30 Catches for 271 1 TD
9. Indianapolis Colts vs. RB 315 yards 4 TD, 11 Catches for 73 0 TD
10. Atlanta Falcons vs. RB 277 yards 2 TD, 18 Catches for 165 1 TD

RB Match-ups to exploit in week 4 are:

• Dexter McCluster faces the Vikings BUT WAIT they got back some players in Week 3 and picked up the run stuff. Only consider McCluster in PPR leagues as a strong FLEX.
• BenJarvus Green-Ellis / Stevan Ridley are both good flexes this week versus the porous Raiders. I like Ridley this week to get plenty of chances as New England burns the clock holding a lead.
• Frank Gore could easily bounce back this week against the Eagles who are allowing the most points to RB’s this year.
• Tim Hightower should toss the Rams salad this week, they rank 4th in points allowed.
• LeGarrette Blount should have a bounce back week against Indy, but don’t keep your hopes to high.
• Either Cedric Benson (if allowed to play) or Bernard Scott should have success this week versus Buffalo however, I’d only start Bernard Scott in PPR leagues as the Bengals will have to play from behind.

The obvious starter with exceptional match up:

• A. Peterson is an obvious start any week but this week is exceptional as he faces the Chief’s who can’t stop tumbleweed from blowing across the field.

Here are our Week 4 Running Back Rankings

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TOP 16 Teams allowing the most fantasy points to opposing WR’s this year.

Denarius Moore is poised for a break out game.

1. New England Patriots vs. WR 48 catches for 794 yards and 4 TD
2. Green Bay Packers vs. WR 42 catches for 660 yards and 4 TD
3. St. Louis Rams vs. WR 34 catches for 535 yards and 6 TD
4. Miami Dolphins vs. WR 37 catches for 578 yards and 5 TD
5. New Orleans Saints vs. WR 39 catches for 525 yards and 3 TD
6. San Francisco 49ers vs. WR 36 catches for 514 yards and 5 TD
7. New York Giants vs. WR 41 catches for 606 yards and 3 TD
8. Baltimore Ravens vs. WR 50 catches for 600 yards and 3 TD
9. Arizona Cardinals vs. WR 41 catches for 581 yards and 3 TD
10. Houston Texans vs. WR 37 catches for 503 yards and 4 TD
11. Kansas City Chiefs vs. WR 37 catches for 484 yards and 4 TD
12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. WR 44 catches for 582 yards and 2 TD
13. Oakland Raiders vs. WR 45 catches for 519 yards and 3 TD
14. Buffalo Bills vs. WR 36 catches for 517 yards and 3 TD
15. Denver Broncos vs. WR 42 catches for 517 yards and 3 TD
16. Carolina Panthers vs. WR 20 catches for 437 yards and 4 TD

WR Match-ups to exploit in week 4 are:

• Brandon Lloyd and Eric Decker should have a good day against Green Bay who allow the 2nd most fantasy points to WR so far this year.
• Oakland has some nice flex plays lined up for you this week but gamble at your own risk here, while someone in Oakland is going to have a great day it’s hard to predict. I expect the Pats to stack the box and force Campbell to pass, Denarius Moore is poised for a break out game.
• Santana Moss WILL have a big day versus the Rams. I don’t think the Rams will move the ball on offense and Washington will be able to air it out versus their weak secondary who ranks 3rd in points allowed.
• Minnesota has a possible deep sleeper in PPR formats, deep leagues only, Michael Jenkins is on the rise as a nice match-ups based flex starter and this week he gets the Chiefs who rank 11th in points allowed.

More obvious starters with great match-ups

• Larry Fitzgerald versus NYG
• Vincent Jackson, especially if Gates returns to the line-up. Miami allows the 4th most points to WR.
• Hakeem Nicks / Mario Manningham or Victor Cruz depending on Manninghams status – Arizona allows the 9th most fantasy points to WR.

Greg Olsen has a great match-up versus the Bears, nice flex play in your a Antonio Gates owner in a time of need.

TOP 10 Teams allowing the most fantasy points to opposing TE’s this year.

1. Miami Dolphins vs. TE 25 catches for 315 yards and 3 TD
2. San Diego Chargers vs. TE 14 catches for 180 yards and 4 TD
3. Chicago Bears vs. TE 19 catches for 237 yards and 3 TD
4. New Orleans Saints vs. TE 14 catches for 259 yards and 2 TD
5. Kansas City Chiefs vs. TE 12 catches for 159 yards and 3 TD
6. Cincinnati Bengals vs. TE 17 catches for 217 yards and 2 TD
7. Dallas Cowboys vs. TE 15 catches for 214 yards and 2 TD
8. Jacksonville Jaguars vs. TE 21 catches for 207 yards and 2 TD
9. Green Bay Packers vs. TE 9 catches for 178 yards and 2 TD
10. Buffalo Bills vs. TE 13 catches for 164 yards and 2 TD

• Greg Olsen has a great match-up versus the Bears, nice flex play in your a Antonio Gates owner in a time of need.
• Marcedes Lewis is a deep sleeper in DEEP leagues – he faces the Saints who can’t cover TE and you can bank that the Saints will score a lot of points.
• Randy McMichael (If Antonio Gates sits out) has a DECENT match-up versus Miami, but they’re ranked number one in points allowed due to the thrashing they took in week 1 versus the Pats.
• Jermaine Gresham is another Antonio Gates weekly flex replacement – the Bungles will have to air it out versus the Bills who rank 10th in points allowed.

More obvious starters with great match-ups this week:

• Jimmy Graham get the Jags who have trouble with tall TE’s.
• Scott Chandler gets the Cincinnati Bengals and they can’t cover TE either, rankings 6th in points allowed. Chandler has a TD in every game this year, it won’t stop this week.

Bouns Round for Kickers – top 10 teams allowing the most Kicker Fantasy Points

1. Cleveland Browns vs. K 10.7 points allowed
2. Kansas City Chiefs vs. K 10.3 this week they face Ryan Longwell
3. Indianapolis Colts vs. K 10.0 points allowed
4. Atlanta Falcons vs. K 9.7 points allowed
5. New Orleans Saints vs. K 9.3 points allowed
6. Chicago Bears vs. K 9.0 points allowed
7. Green Bay Packers vs. K 8.7 points allowed
8. Denver Broncos vs. K 8.7 this week they facec Jason Hanson
9. Dallas Cowboys vs. K 8.3 points allowed
10. Seattle Seahawks vs. K 8.3 points allowed

Locks this week are:

Ryan Longwell and Jason Hanson – both kickers present favorable TOP 10 match-ups this week and they’re in the TOP 10 in regards to FG and XP attempts.

So without further ado, here is Week One’s top 50 players:
Standard Scoring: 4 points per passing TD, 6 points per rushing and receiving and PPR.

Evans was the long-time down-field threat in Buffalo until Steve Johnson (ranked 30th in WR rankings) came along, and the initial ripple effect I am seeing is that Evans’ fantasy football value will just magically rise because of Joe Flacco, and a better Ravens team to back him up.

Not true. In fact it is that sort of short sightedness that can get you in trouble and here’s why.

• The last two seasons, Evans has been less than stellar putting up an average of 595 yards, 5 TDs and 40 catches—that’s borderline WR3 material.
• If you are going to assume he’ll do better because of Joe Flacco, then at least remind yourself he already had a quality QB in Ryan Fitzpatrick who was comparable to Flacco:

• Don’t forget about rookies Torrey Smith and Tandon Doss either, who have been lighting it up in practice. The team is very high on them, and the Ravens plan to integrate them into the system early and often this season.

Dynasty/Keeper Analysis: If you’re in a Dynasty or Keeper league, Lee Evans is an obvious player to pass on. There’s no value or common sense in holding onto a 30 year old receiver who hasn’t been a true WR1 since 2006 (his only real good year mind you), and with Smith and Doss playing the role of “future stars” there is certainly zero reason why you would entertain such a notion.

Standard League Analysis: If you’re in a Standard league, I think you are looking at more risk than reward. In order for Evans to put up those coveted TDs, he’s going to need plenty of opportunities, in an already crowded kitchen.

To make matters worse, the Ravens plan to feature Ray Rice (ranked 4th in RB rankings) and their ground game in red-zone situations leaving even less opportunities for fantasy football owners to take advantage of—just not a lot of upside here.

PPR / Mixed League / Other: If you’re weighing the options against the risk factors by suggesting to yourself “I can deal with Evans as a WR3 if he puts up close to 600 yards, five TDs and 40 catches…” that’s fine, but the receiver pool will have to be pretty thin to justify such a case.

If Evans goes higher than a sixth round selection; that’s a blatant waste of a draft pick. I’m not seeing very many people buying into the hype in the mock draft rooms which is good, and at this point, I’m just not sold that he’s more of a boom receiver than a bust.

Final Analysis: Try to find someone better suited for your team and leave him on the waivers and your watch list.

After falling to pick 1.10, Gore was the first pick in our first expert league of the Summer.

Even though the NFL season has been going strong for weeks now, Fantasy Knuckleheads’ official start to the fantasy season began with our first expert draft of the 2011 season; KFFL NFL Experts League. This wasn’t your run-of-the-mill draft either. We’re talking about some of the top dogs in not only fantasy football, but guys who cover the NFL on a daily basis. Here is a list of the participants:

RotoExperts.com
FootballGuys.com
FOXSports.com
FFToday.com
RotoWire.com
RTSports.com
KFFL.com
BrunoBoys.net
FantasyGuru.com
CBSSports.com
Gridiron-Guru.com
FantasyKnuckleheads.com

Below is how the draft went down and a quick synopsis on each of Knuckleheads’ picks, round-by-round.
PPR, 4 points per passing TD, 6 points per rushing/receiving TD.
1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1Flex/RB/WR/TE, 1DEF, 1K

Round One
#1 BrunoBoys.net – Arian Foster RB, HOU
#2 RotoWire.com – Adrian Peterson RB, MIN
#3 CBSSports.com – Chris Johnson RB, TEN
#4 FOXSports.com – Jamaal Charles RB, KAN
#5 FootballGuys.com – Ray Rice RB, BAL
#6 RotoExperts.com – LeSean McCoy RB, PHI
#7 FantasyGuru.com – Andre Johnson WR, HOU
#8 RTSports.com – Darren McFadden RB, OAK
#9 FFToday.com – Roddy White WR, ATL
#10 FantasyKnuckleheads.com – Frank Gore RB, SFO
#11 Gridiron-Guru.com – Calvin Johnson WR, DET
#12 KFFL.com – Maurice Jones-Drew RB, JAC

In a PPR league, I was hoping one of the last pass-catching running backs would be left, so I decided to take Gore instead of quarterback or receiver. A healthy Frank Gore will produce big numbers under a new coaching staff.

Round 2
#1 KFFL.com – Larry Fitzgerald WR, ARI
#2 Gridiron-Guru.com – Peyton Hillis RB, CLE
#3 FantasyKnuckleheads.com – Hakeem Nicks WR, NYG
#4 FFToday.com – Rashard Mendenhall RB, PIT
#5 RTSports.com – Greg Jennings WR, GNB
#6 FantasyGuru.com – Matt Forte RB, CHI
#7 RotoExperts.com – Reggie Wayne WR, IND
#8 FootballGuys.com – Aaron Rodgers QB, GNB
#9 FOXSports.com – Michael Turner RB, ATL
#10 CBSSports.com – Brandon Marshall WR, MIA
#11 RotoWire.com – Drew Brees QB, NOR
#12 BrunoBoys.net – Steven Jackson RB, STL

Going with the strategy of taking a top player in each position in the first 4-5 rounds, Hakeem Nicks was the best available receiver left on our board. With Steve Smith’s recovery from microfracture surgery expected to take months, Nicks will easily top last year’s stats in terms of receptions (79) and yardage (1052).

Round 3
#1 BrunoBoys.net – Miles Austin WR, DAL
#2 RotoWire.com – Jahvid Best RB, DET
#3 CBSSports.com – Mike Wallace WR, PIT
#4 FOXSports.com – Vincent Jackson WR, SDG
#5 FootballGuys.com – Ahmad Bradshaw RB, NYG
#6 RotoExperts.com – Felix Jones RB, DAL
#7 FantasyGuru.com – Michael Vick QB, PHI
#8 RTSports.com – Mike Williams WR, TAM
#9 FFToday.com – Antonio Gates TE, SDG
#10 FantasyKnuckleheads.com – Wes Welker WR, NWE
#11 Gridiron-Guru.com – Knowshon Moreno RB, DEN
#12 KFFL.com – Dwayne Bowe WR, KAN

Welker is only a year removed from 123 catches in 2009. Hell, he still had 86 last year when the team was going through Randy Moss withdrawals and added in Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. If Chad Ochocinco can squeeze out another strong year, Welker should at least hit 100 receptions again.

Round 4
#1 KFFL.com – Shonn Greene RB, NYJ
#2 Gridiron-Guru.com – Tom Brady QB, NWE
#3 FantasyKnuckleheads.com – Peyton Manning QB, IND
#4 FFToday.com – LeGarrette Blount RB, TAM
#5 RTSports.com – DeAngelo Williams RB, CAR
#6 FantasyGuru.com – Ryan Mathews RB, SDG
#7 RotoExperts.com – Tony Romo QB, DAL
#8 FootballGuys.com – Mark Ingram RB, NOR
#9 FOXSports.com – Jason Witten TE, DAL
#10 CBSSports.com – Dez Bryant WR, DAL
#11 RotoWire.com – Dallas Clark TE, IND
#12 BrunoBoys.net – Jeremy Maclin WR, PHI

Peyton Manning is coming off neck surgery and it’s still unknown if he will be ready by Week One. This is the main reason why he likely slid all the way to the fourth round. Even so, I simply don’t see him missing any of the regular season. While he is getting bumped down by guys like Aaron Rodgers, Philip Rivers, and Michael Vick, Manning will hold his own and put up disgustingly huge numbers if he’s ready by Week One. If so, 30+ touchdown passes here I come!!!!! He still has plenty of time to prepare.

Fred Jackson should get 250+ touches this year.

Round 5
#1 BrunoBoys.net – Philip Rivers QB, SDG
#2 RotoWire.com – Marques Colston WR, NOR
#3 CBSSports.com – Cedric Benson RB, CIN
#4 FOXSports.com – Steve Johnson WR, BUF
#5 FootballGuys.com – DeSean Jackson WR, PHI
#6 RotoExperts.com – Santonio Holmes WR, NYJ
#7 FantasyGuru.com – Jermichael Finley TE, GNB
#8 RTSports.com – Brandon Lloyd WR, DEN
#9 FFToday.com – Matt Schaub QB, HOU
#10 FantasyKnuckleheads.com – Fred Jackson RB, BUF
#11 Gridiron-Guru.com – Ryan Torain RB, WAS
#12 KFFL.com – Percy Harvin WR, MIN

Jackson had a down year in 2010 after achieving 1000 rushing yards in 2009. But this year will be a different story. He no longer has to compete with Marshawn Lynch. And with CJ Spiller still having fumble issues and pass-protecting problems in practice, Jackson will touch the ball 250+ times this season.

Round 6
#1 KFFL.com – Chris Wells RB, ARI
#2 Gridiron-Guru.com – Vernon Davis TE, SFO
#3 FantasyKnuckleheads.com – Greg Olsen TE, CAR
#4 FFToday.com – Kenny Britt WR, TEN
#5 RTSports.com – Matt Ryan QB, ATL
#6 FantasyGuru.com – Daniel Thomas RB, MIA
#7 RotoExperts.com – Ryan Grant RB, GNB
#8 FootballGuys.com – Austin Collie WR, IND
#9 FOXSports.com – Sidney Rice WR, SEA
#10 CBSSports.com – BenJarvus Green-Ellis RB, NWE
#11 RotoWire.com – Marshawn Lynch RB, SEA
#12 BrunoBoys.net – Jonathan Stewart RB, CAR

Out of all the picks, this is the one I regret……but just a little bit. Playing in OC Mike Martz’s offense killed Olsen’s value in Chicago. And he’ll have some growing pains as he gets adjusted to playing in a new system and a new quarterback. What I am banking on is Carolina OC Rob Chudzinski making Olsen a big part of the offense. Chud was the tight ends coach in San Diego and was a big part of making some dude named Antonio Gates a stud.

Round 7
#1 BrunoBoys.net – Anquan Boldin WR, BAL
#2 RotoWire.com – Chad Ochocinco WR, NWE
#3 CBSSports.com – Ben Roethlisberger QB, PIT
#4 FOXSports.com – Eli Manning QB, NYG
#5 FootballGuys.com – Jimmy Graham TE, NOR
#6 RotoExperts.com – Mike Thomas WR, JAC
#7 FantasyGuru.com – Pierre Garcon WR, IND
#8 RTSports.com – Brandon Jacobs RB, NYG
#9 FFToday.com – Mario Manningham WR, NYG
#10 FantasyKnuckleheads.com – Jordy Nelson WR, GNB
#11 Gridiron-Guru.com – Ryan Williams RB, ARI
#12 KFFL.com – Matthew Stafford QB, DET

After putting up a huge game in the Super Bowl, and also suffering a burst bursa sac in his left knee, Nelson figures to see a lot more time on the field this year. James Jones coming back does hurt some, but we doubt he has fixed his inconsistencies. And Donald Driver is close to being done completely. Nelson has sleeper written all over him. He’s the team’s most talented receiver outside of Greg Jennings.

Round 8
#1 KFFL.com – Owen Daniels TE, HOU
#2 Gridiron-Guru.com – Roy Williams WR, CHI
#3 FantasyKnuckleheads.com – Joseph Addai RB, IND
#4 FFToday.com – Danny Amendola WR, STL
#5 RTSports.com – Mike Tolbert RB, SDG
#6 FantasyGuru.com – Steve Smith WR, CAR
#7 RotoExperts.com – Kellen Winslow TE, TAM
#8 FootballGuys.com – A.J. Green WR, CIN
#9 FOXSports.com – C.J. Spiller RB, BUF
#10 CBSSports.com – Santana Moss WR, WAS
#11 RotoWire.com – Reggie Bush RB, MIA
#12 BrunoBoys.net – Davone Bess WR, MIA

Another guy who slid farther than I had anticipated, Addai re-signed with the Colts and will start Week One. Donald Brown showed me nothing last year that would make me believe he can unseat Addai for the starting job. Rookie Delone Carter could make some noise, but the starting job is clearly Addai’s to lose. And as my No. 3 running back, THAT’S GOLD JERRY GOLD!!!

Robert Meachem could finally have the breakout season the Saints have been waiting for.

Round 9
#1 BrunoBoys.net – Darren Sproles RB, NOR
#2 RotoWire.com – Braylon Edwards WR, SFO
#3 CBSSports.com – Tim Hightower RB, WAS
#4 FOXSports.com – Julio Jones WR, ATL
#5 FootballGuys.com – Jacoby Ford WR, OAK
#6 RotoExperts.com – Greg Little WR, CLE
#7 FantasyGuru.com – Josh Freeman QB, TAM
#8 RTSports.com – Deion Branch WR, NWE
#9 FFToday.com – Rashad Jennings RB, JAC
#10 FantasyKnuckleheads.com – Robert Meachem WR, NOR
#11 Gridiron-Guru.com – Malcom Floyd WR, SDG
#12 KFFL.com – Johnny Knox WR, CHI

I initially ragged on Kurt for making a homer pick, but you can’t disagree that this could be Meachem’s year. Finally over injuries, Meachem is showing why the Saints drafted him in the first round back in 2007. With Marques Colston still sidelined with problematic knees, Meachem could end up being Drew Brees’ go-to guy. His upside is off the charts right now.

Round 10
#1 KFFL.com – Jay Cutler QB, CHI
#2 Gridiron-Guru.com – Sam Bradford QB, STL
#3 FantasyKnuckleheads.com – Roy Helu RB, WAS
#4 FFToday.com – Michael Bush RB, OAK
#5 RTSports.com – Mike Sims-Walker WR, STL
#6 FantasyGuru.com – Lance Moore WR, NOR
#7 RotoExperts.com – Matt Cassel QB, KAN
#8 FootballGuys.com – Marcedes Lewis TE, JAC
#9 FOXSports.com – Kevin Kolb QB, ARI
#10 CBSSports.com – Rob Gronkowski TE, NWE
#11 RotoWire.com – Hines Ward WR, PIT
#12 BrunoBoys.net – Brandon Pettigrew TE, DET

Hate the Redskins, but I love me some Roy Helu. Ryan Torain can’t stay healthy and Tim Hightower is going to fumble his way into Mike Shanahan’s doghouse. I’m trying to temper my expectations because he’s a rookie, but I can’t see Helu not landing the starting job in-season.

Round 11
#1 BrunoBoys.net – James Starks RB, GNB
#2 RotoWire.com – Mike Williams WR, SEA
#3 CBSSports.com – Joe Flacco QB, BAL
#4 FOXSports.com – Pierre Thomas RB, NOR
#5 FootballGuys.com – Plaxico Burress WR, NYJ
#6 RotoExperts.com – Danny Woodhead RB, NWE
#7 FantasyGuru.com – Willis McGahee RB, DEN
#8 RTSports.com – Kyle Orton QB, DEN
#9 FFToday.com – James Jones WR, GNB
#10 FantasyKnuckleheads.com – Jared Cook TE, TEN
#11 Gridiron-Guru.com – Green Bay Packers Def/ST, GNB
#12 KFFL.com – Michael Crabtree WR, SFO

Now we start getting into the players that are looking good in camp, but haven’t popped up on anyone else’s radar. With Matt Hasselbeck in town, Cook could be in for a solid season. Reports say that the coaches are lining him out as a wide receiver in practice, so we could see him push for a career year in 2011.

Round 12
#1 KFFL.com – LaDainian Tomlinson RB, NYJ
#2 Gridiron-Guru.com – Donald Driver WR, GNB
#3 FantasyKnuckleheads.com – Philadelphia Eagles Def/ST, PHI
#4 FFToday.com – Ryan Fitzpatrick QB, BUF
#5 RTSports.com – Tony Gonzalez TE, ATL
#6 FantasyGuru.com – Dustin Keller TE, NYJ
#7 RotoExperts.com – New York Jets Def/ST, NYJ
#8 FootballGuys.com – Shane Vereen RB, NWE
#9 FOXSports.com – Zach Miller TE, SEA
#10 CBSSports.com – Pittsburgh Steelers Def/ST, PIT
#11 RotoWire.com – Mark Sanchez QB, NYJ
#12 BrunoBoys.net – Chris Cooley TE, WAS

My homer pick of the draft. The Eagles Defense still has to gel with all the new faces, plus a new defensive coordinator, but they should slowly start raining down some terror against opposing offenses. I still worry about the pass rush and the linebackers, but that secondary is just too sick to pass up. If they end up flopping, I’ll be eating some crow in the winter.

For at least one week, I'm hoping Matt Hasselbeck shines as much as his bald noggin does on a sunny day.

Round 13
#1 BrunoBoys.net – Donovan McNabb QB, MIN
#2 RotoWire.com – Justin Forsett RB, SEA
#3 CBSSports.com – Jerome Simpson WR, CIN
#4 FOXSports.com – Delone Carter RB, IND
#5 FootballGuys.com – New England Patriots Def/ST, NWE
#6 RotoExperts.com – Tony Moeaki TE, KAN
#7 FantasyGuru.com – Jordan Shipley WR, CIN
#8 RTSports.com – Chicago Bears Def/ST, CHI
#9 FFToday.com – Aaron Hernandez TE, NWE
#10 FantasyKnuckleheads.com – Matt Hasselbeck QB, TEN
#11 Gridiron-Guru.com – Danario Alexander WR, STL
#12 KFFL.com – New York Giants Def/ST, NYG

I don’t expect Hasselbeck to find fantasy glory behind a questionable offensive line, but I only need him to pick up the slack during Peyton’s bye week (11). Luckily, he’s playing Atlanta in the dome, so weather won’t be an issue.

Round 14
#1 KFFL.com – Steve Breaston WR, KAN
#2 Gridiron-Guru.com – Leonard Hankerson WR, WAS
#3 FantasyKnuckleheads.com – Torrey Smith WR, BAL
#4 FFToday.com – Baltimore Ravens Def/ST, BAL
#5 RTSports.com – Brent Celek TE, PHI
#6 FantasyGuru.com – Jerome Harrison RB, DET
#7 RotoExperts.com – Ronnie Brown RB, PHI
#8 FootballGuys.com – DeMarco Murray RB, DAL
#9 FOXSports.com – Lee Evans WR, BUF
#10 CBSSports.com – Javon Ringer RB, TEN
#11 RotoWire.com – Early Doucet WR, ARI
#12 BrunoBoys.net – Dallas Cowboys Def/ST, DAL

Another upside/depth pick, Smith has been looking really good in practice, yeah maybe I put too much stock in training camps, and he looks to be the starter alongside Anquan Boldin. Nice bye-week filler who could make a flex appearance.

Round 15
#1 BrunoBoys.net – Stephen Gostkowski K, NWE
#2 RotoWire.com – Detroit Lions Def/ST, DET
#3 CBSSports.com – Brandon Jackson RB, CLE
#4 FOXSports.com – New Orleans Saints Def/ST, NOR
#5 FootballGuys.com – Nate Kaeding K, SDG
#6 RotoExperts.com – Emmanuel Sanders WR, PIT
#7 FantasyGuru.com – Kansas City Chiefs Def/ST, KAN
#8 RTSports.com – Jabar Gaffney WR, WAS
#9 FFToday.com – Jason Snelling RB, ATL
#10 FantasyKnuckleheads.com – Todd Heap TE, ARI
#11 Gridiron-Guru.com – Titus Young WR, DET
#12 KFFL.com – Rob Bironas K, TEN

I never take three tight ends. Sometimes, I don’t even take two. But I was so worried about my Olsen pick, that I picked up Cook and prayed. This league allows a tight end as a flex position, so Heap will help during the bye weeks. And playing with Kevin Kolb, who likes to throw to tight ends, Heap might have a little bit of TE2 value left.

Round 16
#1 KFFL.com – Lonyae Miller RB, DAL
#2 Gridiron-Guru.com – Mason Crosby K, GNB
#3 FantasyKnuckleheads.com – Garrett Hartley K, NOR
#4 FFToday.com – Alex Henery K, PHI
#5 RTSports.com – Matt Bryant K, ATL
#6 FantasyGuru.com – Sebastian Janikowski K, OAK
#7 RotoExperts.com – Josh Brown K, STL
#8 FootballGuys.com – Donnie Avery WR, STL
#9 FOXSports.com – Neil Rackers K, HOU
#10 CBSSports.com – David Buehler K, DAL
#11 RotoWire.com – Adam Vinatieri K, IND
#12 BrunoBoys.net – Jacoby Jones WR, HOU

A kicker is a kicker, but at least I got one that ranked fairly high. And since Kurt is a Saints fan, nothing wrong with appeasing the boss with guys from his own team.

Jimmy Smith could be a nice addition to your fantasy team as he starts in Baltimore this year

Each year, rookie defensive backs get selected progressively higher in the NFL Draft. Why? The simple answer is that the NFL has morphed into a passing league. You can still win with defense and playing ball control offense holding on to the football. It has just become harder. The Atlanta Falcons found that out in the playoffs against the Saints last year. So this year, the Falcons spent a ton of assets to move up in the draft to select Julio Jones in an effort to add another game-breaking offensive piece. On the flip-side, teams are constantly trying to counter these moves by adding pass rushers and good defensive backs in order to slow down these explosive offenses. This brings me to the entire point of this article:

Rookie Defensive Backs Are a Gold Mine

Every year, some rookie defensive backs provide exceptional value and return on investment (ROI) for their fantasy owners as long as the owners get them late and do not overpay based on the hype. This article identifies some guys to target that could give you the best ROI amongst the rookie DBs this coming season. The guy I am targeting: Jimmy Smith, CB, Baltimore Ravens.

Now before I get into why I like Jimmy Smith, let me throw out some numbers to demonstrate the value you can gain by selecting the right rookie defensive back.

In the past three seasons, some rookie DBs have come out and delivered solid performances for fantasy teams. A lot of times, these DBs were not the highest selected rookie DBs either.

2008: Brandon Flowers (12^th), Brandon Carr (13^th), and Tracy Porter (30^th) were amongst the top 30 cornerbacks in terms of points per game. Flowers cracked the top-30 overall amongst DBs in 2008 when he finished 27^th.

2009: Jerraud Powers (12^th) and Jacob Lacey (13^th) were amongst the top-15 cornerbacks in terms of points per game. Louis Delmas was the best rookie safety and Delmas and Lacey finished 12^th and 25^th amongst all defensive backs that season.

2010:  Alterraun Verner (5th) and Devin McCourty (8th) were amongst the top-10 in ppg amongst cornerbacks.  TJ Ward, Eric Berry, and Earl Thomas were all top-50 DBs as well. Overall, Ward (3^rd), Verner (13^th), Berry (20^th) and McCourty (22^nd) finished in the top-25 overall DBs as rookies.

As you can see, 2010 was a particularly good year for rookie DBs. Part of that was the level of talent and part of it was the opportunities those players had. This is always the formula for success amongst almost any fantasy player: talent + opportunity = success.

The other thing to take a close note of is that rookie cornerbacks can fair very well in the fantasy world. While Safeties usually rule the IDP world, rookie CBs can be fantasy gold since most experienced NFL quarterbacks will key on a rookie corner and try to pick them apart early and often.

Smith will get his chances for Baltimore. Will he for your fantasy team?

This leads to my endorsement of Jimmy Smith of the Ravens as a deep IDP sleeper candidate this coming season. Smith has some serious talent. By most scouts’ assessments, he was THE best cover corner available in this year’s draft. Yes, better then Patrick Peterson. Smith fell in the draft due to some character issues, but couldn’t have landed on a better team. The Ravens have no reservations taking on players with perceived or previous character issues. They have faith in their locker-room and players like Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, and Haloti Ngata will not let Smith get out of line.  Below is a video showing just a preview of Smith’s ability to play the run and his closing speed in pass defense.

One thing that I noticed in quite a few highlights I have seen of Smith is that while he has great cover skills, he is also willing to stick his nose in the backfield to support the run. Smith is quite big for a cornerback, standing at 6’2” and 211 pounds. He can match up against bigger, more physical receivers, yet has the coverage skills to run with the quicker WRs (4.4 speed).

The talent is there, but the big thing for me is the opportunity Smith has. The Ravens have already come out and said they expect him to start, play early and often, and maybe even shadow opposing teams’ #1 receivers.  I fully expect teams to challenge him and go at him often. Since Smith has great ball skills, this could mean big opportunities for turnovers. However, even if he doesn’t net the turnovers, Smith is physical enough to rack up some serious tackles as teams throw at him.

Smith has the ball skills to add some turnovers as a rookie

The Ravens’ D is excellent at stopping the run, and as a result teams throw on the Ravens a lot. Last season, the Ravens’ defense was 3^rd in the league in passing attempts against  per game at 37.2 attempts per game. If that continues, Smith could prove to be this year’s CB that puts up DB2 numbers and he will likely come at the DB5 price or later. Keep an eye on him if you are looking for a deep IDP sleeper at defensive back.

Other rookie DBs to consider (although some will not offer much in the realm of ROI since they will be over drafted based on hype):

Patrick Peterson, CB, AZ- Peterson will be over hyped and over drafted in many fantasy leagues, but he does have the exceptional talent to put up numbers and plays across from Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, so he will get his chances. He will have to share a lot of tackles with Adrian Wilson and Kerry Rhodes, however.

Rahim Moore, S, DEN- Moore could be a huge stud if Brian Dawkins is not re-signed and Moore is given the starting SS job in Denver. Play the wait-and-see game for now, but keep him firmly on your radar.

Jaiquawn Jarett, S, PHI- Jarett is slated to step right in to Quintin Mikell’s SS spot and should put up some really good numbers there. If he is hanging around later in drafts and is not drafted too highly, grab him as a DB3 and stash him for when he rises.

Brandon Harris, CB, HOU- Harris has the talent and Houston certainly has the need. Kareem Jackson disappointed in Houston last year, and if Glover Quinn moves to safety this year, Harris could see a lot of playing time. Peyton Manning and other veteran QBs will pick on him and Harris should put up decent numbers if that happens.

Aaron Williams, CB/S, BUFF- There is some question whether Buffalo will play Williams at corner or at safety. He is talented enough to succeed at either position and Buffalo has a need at both. That said, if he somehow lands at SS next to Jarius Byrd (unlikely, but possible) then he becomes a must-own prospect. He is still worth a late round stash in bigger leagues or dynasty leagues either way.

Curtis Brown, CB, PIT- Brown could see some significant time if Pittsburgh loses Ike Taylor and he is thrust into a larger role than was anticipated.  Brown is not worth drafting in most leaguers, but is worth monitoring as the season approaches and progresses.

Prince Amukamara, CB, NYG- Prince has some serious talent, but is currently lacking the opportunity in NY. He is currently a nickel DB at best, but if he ends up cracking that starting lineup anytime this season, then the Prince could end up being a steal. He is definitely worth keeping track of in dynasty leagues, especially those that require you to start CBs.

Smith can tackle and is a willing run defender......not something you see in many rookie cornerbacks

Don’t forget to check out all 32 NFL Team Draft needs.

Wide Receiver

The Ravens are set with their number one receiver in Anquan Boldin, but no one can be sure how long veteran Derrick Mason plans on playing. The Ravens simply cannot count on Mason, TJ Houshmanzadeh, or Donte Stallworth being in their long term plans. Looking at both the future and the present, the Ravens need a vertical threat who can stretch the field. If they choose to address this issue in the first two rounds, we could see the Ravens target a guy like Torrey Smith or Leonard Hankerson. Since cornerback will be a much more urgent need than wide receiver, though, the Ravens will likely wait until the second day of the draft until addressing this position and settling for a lesser-known talent.

Right Tackle

Last season, the Ravens had to do without their regular starter Jared Gaither at left tackle, and because of the impending lockout/CBA situation, it is a distinct possibility that the four-year pro could end up as a free agent. This is no matter for the Ravens, despite Gaither being a very talented player. Current right tackle Michael Oher, whom we’ve all heard of, is a natural left tackle and is just dying to get back over to the left side of the offensive line. Also, despite Gaither’s talent, he is officially ready to be slapped with the nasty “injury prone” level, as injuries to his head, foot, and back have caused him to miss 21 games the past two seasons (all of 2010 season, 5 games in 2009). Gaither will almost certainly be let go since it would be easier to slide Oher over and find a new right tackle rather than convince Gaither to move out of position to right tackle (or keep Oher at right tackle). With a late first round pick, Wisconsin’s Gabe Carimi or Miss. State’s Derek Sherrod could be on Baltimore’s radar.

Cornerback

With Baltimore’s top three cornerbacks—Chris Carr, Josh Wilson, and Fabian Washington—all set to reach free agency, the Ravens need a contingency plan. To protect their secondary because of the likely event that they don’t retain all three, the Ravens should take a long, hard look at a guy like Miami’s Brandon Harris or Texas’ Curtis Brown on the first day of the draft. Even after taking a cornerback on day one, they will almost surely take another on the second day of the draft to keep their secondary from being a liability next season.