Offensive Tackle Nate Solder

“Where’s the pass rush?”

Most New England fans wanted to see a big name pass rusher here, especially after Mel Kiper had been throwing around names like Cameron Jordan and Ryan Kerrigan. When is Mel Kiper ever wrong? Remember, for those of you not keeping track at home, Mel Kiper is the guy who scratched his head and got confused when the Patriots drafted Logan Mankins in the first round of the 2005 draft. Offensive linemen may not be the most exciting picks in the draft (and let’s face it, the draft is a hyped up entertainment event for TV when it’s really a big crapshoot), but you can bet your rear end that Tom Brady has been able to stay so good for so long because of the blocking he’s gotten from the likes of Mankins. Belichick is notorious for trading down out of his draft picks, and it’s become common for him not to make high first round picks. What players has he drafted in the top 20 in his Patriots tenure? Richard Seymour, Ty Warren, Jerod Mayo, and now Solder. It’s worth noting that other first round picks include Brandon Meriweather (24th), Vince Wilfork (21st), and Devin McCourty (27th).

More often than not, Bill Belichick hits on his first round draft picks, and most of the time they make fans scratch their heads. It’s pretty fitting that one of the most buzzed about, most liked drafts (in terms of draft grades that come out a week later, before any rookie has even set foot on the field) Belichick had ended up being by far his worst. In 2006 the Patriots were supposed to have struck gold with Laurence Maroney in the first round, Chad Jackson in the second round, and David Thomas in the third. The only one of these three who has even amounted to anything is Thomas, but he is by no means stellar. It just goes to show how valuable post-draft “grades” are. Back to the matter at hand, Belichick made this pick because Solder is basically an immovable object and the Patriots have to get ready to move on from Matt Light. They may even have to face a future without Logan Mankins, which would open up a huge hole on their line. Keeping the 34 year old Tom Brady upright has to be a top priority for the Patriots.

Cornerback Ras-I Dowling

“Still no pass rusher?”

Many fans ache over Belichick’s “terrible” drafting because instead of pass rushers Brooks Reed or Jabaal Sheard, the Pats elected to use the 33rd overall pick on often-injured cornerback Ras-I Dowling. It’s just too bad that the focus isn’t on how good of a cover corner Dowling is when healthy and how none of the injuries Dowling have battled should become long-term concerns. Additionally, look at the Patriots defensive backs. McCourty, a Pro Bowler in his rookie year, is a stud, but after that it’s almost safe to label Darius Butler a bust, and Kyle Arrington doesn’t seem good enough to be counted on in a major role. Sure Leigh Bodden is coming back, but after missing the entire 2010 season his health is a question mark, and if he returns to form, can it really hurt to have three really good cornerbacks? I think the Packers just won a Super Bowl with three guys named Woodson, Williams, and Shields, and you can never have too many stoppers in your secondary when you have to beat guys like Peyton Manning and Ben Roethlisberger to make a trip to the Super Bowl. Taking this all into account, I have yet to hear a good reason why the team with the worst third down conversion percentage on defense by far doesn’t need a cover corner. Sure a good secondary can only do so much without a good pass rush, but keep in mind the Patriots led the NFL in sacks in the second half of last season, have Ty Warren coming back for 2011, should be able to see developmental progress from Jermaine Cunningham and Rob Ninkovich, and can also target some pretty good free agents. It’s not Bill Belichick’s philosophy to draft pass rushers as most of them bust, so it’s not the end of the world that he neglected this area of need in the draft. This is a problem that could probably fix itself if given another year.

Running back Shane Vereen

“This might be alright, but waiting on that pass rusher…”

After an ACL tear last season coupled with his advanced age, Kevin Faulk is probably done. They shouldn’t count on him to come back, and even if he does Fred Taylor is gone. As likable as he is, BenJarvus Green-Ellis just didn’t force any defenses to respect New England’s running game, so even though Green-Ellis and Woodhead seems like a capable tandem, this is an upgrade that had to be made. Vereen provides more of a home run threat than Green-Ellis (who will probably still do most of the heavy lifting on the ground), who was rather pedestrian against better-than-average defensive units. The Law Firm is serviceable and a fan favorite, but if he’s not going to keep the defense from loading up on defensive backs to stifle Tom Brady, they’ve got to find a running back who will. Around this point of the draft the Patriots could have taken a pass rusher like Justin Houston, but Belichick obviously didn’t see a fit for his defensive schemes. If he did, he would have pulled the trigger on somebody.

Running back Stevan Ridley

“What..the…hell?”

Last season, New England’s running back rotation was Green-Ellis, Woodhead, Fred Taylor, Kevin Faulk, and Sammy Morris. The Pats can’t expect Faulk to come back and Taylor’s contract is expiring. Taylor is old, hasn’t shown that he’s got a lot left in his tank, and thus is expendable. Sammy Morris is pretty old too, which means the only guys the Patriots have whom they can count on going forward are Green-Ellis and Woodhead. And only time will tell whether or not Woodhead is for real or just a one year wonder who quickly gained a cult following. Still, for a team that spreads its carries around, it’s not like the Patriots to go with two backs. Vereen and Ridley are upgrades over the veterans they have and will become developmental guys who may be able to carry a big load for the offense if needed. Taking two running backs back-to-back may look just downright stupid to some, but taking two tight ends named Gronkowski and Hernandez worked out all right last year. Best case scenario could be the same sort of results out of the backfield. Imagine the passing lanes a more electric running game could open up.

Quarterback Ryan Mallett

“Now this is interesting, but a pass rusher would be nice”

As a Patriots fan, even I was confused that the Pats didn’t select a defensive lineman to this point (mostly because bust-rate of pass rushers aside, it’s hard to downgrade from Brandon Deaderick and Gerard Warren), but I think the consensus of the entire fanbase is that this was a very good pick for the Pats. Tom Bradly (tragically) won’t be around forever, and at 34 it’s not too early to start grooming a successor. Mallett has the arm, the accuracy, and the football IQ to be a true big-time QB, but his behavioral issues scared most teams away. Where better for him to mature than New England? They even kept Randy Moss in line for a few years, and in general this is just a locker room with a history for keeping immature players in line. If he doesn’t work out, he can be cut at no cost. If it does work out, the Pats just used a measly third round draft pick for a guy who could turn out so good that the Patriots don’t even lose a step after Brady retires.

Offensive Lineman Marcus Cannon

This isn’t the last guy the Pats drafted, but frankly it’s the last guy I’ve even heard of and to be blunt, probably the lowest-selected guy in New England’s draft class who has a good chance to amount to anything. Cannon has been described by pundits as “first or second round talent” but fell all the way down to round 5 because of a treatable form of cancer. He will miss likely all of the upcoming season from chemotherapy and his recuperation, but the year after that he’ll be back, and if he can beat cancer, he’s got the willpower to succeed in the NFL. Like Solder, Cannon is one of those immovable objects and his blocking prowess will probably lead to Tom Brady buying the man a few steaks before the golden boy’s career is all said and done. In 2011 he won’t have an impact barring something incredible and miraculous, but in the long run he is the successor to retired guard Stephen Neal and may move over to the other side of the line if the disgruntled Logan Mankin jumps ship. Not a pass rusher, but in a division filled with elite pass rushers, Bill Belichick has shown he’s one step ahead of the game once again by loading up on blockers to negate the blitzing.

As always, the NFL Draft is a total crapshoot, and it’s completely pointless to try and grade the drafting mere days after teams are through making their selections. With my concluding thought, I’d just like to remind everyone that it’s usually a good thing when Bill Belichick’s decision-making confuses everyone else.

New England Patriots 2010 Fantasy Football Draft Targets

Quarterback

With the concerns over his knee in the past, Tom Brady needs to step up his production to keep the Pats atop the AFC East

Tom Brady: Despite his stalling contract negotiations, Tom Brady will still be a top 10 QB pick in any fantasy draft. Every year he puts up gaudy numbers, although I doubt he will ever be able to reach to 50-TD pinnacle he set in ’07. Everyone always says that an ACL tear takes two years to fully recover from. Well, this is year two so we should expect big things from number 12. Last year he put up his second highest touchdown total with 28 as well as completing over 67% of his passes for 4,398 yards. Those are solid numbers no matter which way you look at them, and as long as he can stay healthy his numbers will hover around the same area this year, especially with the addition of Torry Holt as an outlet man and the ascension of Julien Edelman as a solid slot receiver. While Brady won’t be the top scoring QB in the fantasy world, he is still a top 10 QB pick and is poised to have another big year.

Running Back

One thing the New England Patriots have never had is a marquee running back – unless you count Curtis Martin. They have been the poster child for running back by committee. Everyone had high hopes for Laurence Maroney to be the man right out of Minnesota, and he has moments of brilliance down the stretch last year posting 9 touchdowns, but he has been injury prone and had serious issues holding onto the football. The veterans Fred Taylor, Sammy Morris, and Kevin Faulk are always present but no one guy has ever been able to take hold of the position so look for the Pats to continue attacking on first and second down primarily with Morris or Maroney and Kevin Faulk continuing to be a stud on third down passing situations. Individually it is extremely difficult to recommend any one player as a starting RB in your fantasy league, but as a Bye Week filler pick a name out of a hat and they could produce some decent numbers in a more balanced Patriot offense in 2010.

Wide Receiver

Randy Moss: The ever present down field threat for the Patriots. While his numbers have tapered over the past two seasons (as if 13 receiving TDs is a bad thing), he is still Tom Brady’s primary downfield and red zone target. Look for Moss to have a big first half while Wes Welker gets back to full strength and continue his streak of double digit TD, 1,000+ yd seasons in a Patriot uniform.

Until Wes Welker is able to return to full strength the Patriots need someone to step up and fill the gap

Wes Welker/Torry Holt/Julien Edelman: Any one of these guys could be huge this year for the Patriots, but it is too soon to tell about Welker’s knee, Holts durability at this stage of his career, and Edelman’s development as a slot receiver. Holt will definitely fill the secondary receiver hole that has lacking in the Patriots offense and will get his touches no matter what, but to what extent with Moss on the other side? Edelman showed flashes of what he can do down the stretch and in the playoffs last season and could be a solid fantasy performer as a yards after the catch guy and a speedy return man.

Tight End

Alge Crumpler: Big veteran guy who is a superior blocker than he is receiver. A lot of us remember him as Michael Vick’s favorite target in Atlanta but he has sort of devolved out of the passing game over the past few years in Atlanta and seldom used at all last season in Tennessee. Not a great fantasy option in 2010, especially with the addition of these guys…

Rob Gronkowski/Aaron Hernandez: Both rookies in the Patriots camp, Gronkowski taken in the second round and Hernandez in the fourth, could be minor fantasy producers. Gronkowski is the most talented of the duo, but there are questions about his playing time due to recovering from back surgery last season and the addition of Hernandez just two rounds later in the draft. They both have similar skill sets down the field and can block along the line, but one has to remember that the Pats ranked 28^th in the league in catches by tight ends, and with Alge in the mix it is hard to imagine one of these guys making a major impact over any of the others.

Defense

Jerod Mayo and co. need to step up the defensive pressure in 2010

Instead of trying to rebuild through free agency, Belichick and Co. decided to lock down the guys that they have confidence in and utilize the draft to inject some youth into their defensive unit. The biggest question in the offseason was the linebacker position. Right now the Patriots have one stud, Jerrod Mayo, and one attacking linebacker in Tully Banta-Cain that they hope and pray can repeat the season he had last year when he recorded 9.5 sacks. In the Base 3-4 they are going to need someone else to step up and they are hoping one of their rookies, Brandon Spikes or Jermaine Cunningham, will be able to plug that hole. Overall the Patriots may not be the best defensive unit in the league, but they remain solid every year. They do not give up a ton of points (5^th), rushing yards (13^th), or the big play down the field (12^th in p. yds/g), but they also do not score a whole lot in terms of fantasy points with 28 total takeaways in 2009. They are a well rounded unit and with a bit more youth and experience in this year’s line up they will continue to be solid, but do not expect them to shut teams out on a weekly basis.

Schedule

Wk Date Opponent

1 Sun, Sept 12^th Cincinnati Bengals

2 Sun, Sept 19^th @ New York Jets

3 Sun, Sept 26^th Buffalo Bills

4 Mon, Oct 4^th @ Miami Dolphins

5 BYE WEEK

6 Sun, Oct 17^th Baltimore Ravens

7 Sun, Oct 24^th @ San Diego Chargers

8 Sun, Oct 31^st Minnesota Vikings

9 Sun, Nov 7^th @ Cleveland Browns

10 Sun, Nov 14^th @ Pittsburgh Steelers

11 Sun, Nov 21^st Indianapolis Colts

12 Thurs, Nov 25^th @ Detroit Lions

13 Mon, Dec 6^th New York Jets

14 Sun, Dec 12^th @ Chicago Bears

15 Sun, Dec 19^th Green Bay Packers

16 Sun, Dec 26^th @ Buffalo Bills

17 Sun, Jan 2^nd Miami Dolphins

Nightmare of a schedule. Not only is the AFC East as good as it has been in ages, the Pats have to take on the defending AFC champion Colts and NFC title contender Vikings. The Patriots are still the class of the AFC East and until someone knocks them off that pedestal I think they will again reign supreme. There are no major ego issues, besides Logan Mankins, and instead of blitzing free agents the Pats locked down their big guys and built chemistry. The Patriots will win the AFC East with an 11-5 record with key victories over the Chargers, Packers and securing their title in the season finale against the Dolphins.

Coaching Strategy

Offense

Laurence Maroney and the Patriots running game could be the key to a deep playoff run

The Patriots offense has potential to be one of the best in the league every year, and this

year will be no different. We all know what we are going to get from their downfield passing game, because it will be Moss, Moss, and more Moss with a dash of Holt, but this year the Patriots have developed multiple weapons to work underneath. The mighty whitey duo of Welker and Edelman could be a force to be reckoned with as they both have speed, solid hands and are great after the catch. The big question will be the running game and the effectiveness of their veterans in the backfield. More than likely the Patriots will revert to the slant and screen passing game that is an extension of their running game to keep defenses honest, and pound the ball with Sammy Morris and Laurence Maroney at the goal line and in short yardage situations. I expect big things, but they need to establish some sort of effective running attack to open up those spaces underneath and get Moss in single coverage on the outside.

Defense

Defensively the Patriots need to step up their aggressive play. When they attacked the quarterback effectively last season it took the pressure off of their offense to win games. With the added youth and depth at linebacker, the aforementioned Spikes and Cunningham, to help Vince Wilfork up front against the run and up and coming safety Patrick Chung alongside Brandon Meriweather, the Patriots defensive unit has the ability to bring a lot more pressure without sacrificing anything over the top. The litmus test for this unit is how they hold up against the run heavy offenses of the AFC East facing the Jets and Dolphins twice a year. If they can show some resolve against those guys and force their young quarterbacks to go to the air more than they would like they will definitely have the success that we expect from such a quality team.

For each position (DL, LB, DB), I will recommend 3 Starts and 2 Sits in addition to my “Start of the Week” and “Sit of the Week.” Also, for each position, I have listed players that I consider to be every week starters or, in other terms, “matchup independent.”

I hope everyone was successful in their respective playoff matchups last week (if you had one). For many fantasy players, this week is their championship game week (I have one this week, wish me luck). With this being said, every move, no matter how small, becomes crucial. I tried to provide a good mix of solid/safe plays and risky/high reward players for people to choose from depending on the situation they’re in (i.e. underdogs or favorites).

Also, as a side note, some of you may enjoy this video. I know I did.

This is a prime example of how Eagles fans are some of the rudest fans in sports. “City of Brotherly Love” my ass.

Anyways, here are my IDP recommendations for Week 16:

Starts

*The IDP Guru’s Start of the Week*

WLB Lance Briggs – You may be saying that this pick is worthless because Briggs is a stud and not available in any leagues. However, because of his injury in Week 12, he is shockingly only owned in 40% of ESPN leagues. He had 13 solo tackles last week and will probably reach double digits solos again this week against the Vikings, who are very generous when it comes to giving out fantasy points to opposing linebackers.

*If you looking for a sneakier play (if Briggs’ isn’t available), I also like MLB Hunter Hillenmeyer in this matchup.

DEFENSIVE LINEMAN

Every Week Starters:
Jared Allen
Julius Peppers
Elvis Dumervil
Justin Tuck
Trent Cole
Mario Williams
Robert Mathis – WATCH PLAYING STATUS
Andre Carter
Dwight Freeney – WATCH PLAYING STATUS
Will Smith
Brian Orakpo

1. RDE Randy Starks – Starks has started to cool off recently. However, he has the Texans this week who have given up the 4th most fantasy points to opposing defensive lineman the last 8 weeks. Starks should be able to put up 3-4 solos and a sack.

2. RDE Kroy Biermann – Biermann has been up and down this season but had a resurgence last week with 8 total tackles. He has a juicy matchup against the Bills this week and should be able to put up some decent numbers.

3. DE/WLB Terrell Suggs – I really like Suggs this week. Roethlisburger seems to get sacked a ton every week and this is a big division game, so I expect the Ravens to try and pressure Big Ben quite a bit. Suggs may be available in some leagues due to him being injured during the season. If he’s available, I recommend you pick him up as Suggs could be in for a monster game!

LINEBACKERS

Every Week Starters:
Patrick Willis
James Harrison
Jon Beason
Barrett Rudd
London Fletcher
D.J. Williams
Curtis Lofton
Kirk Morrison
Brian Cushing
David Harris
David Hawthorne
James Laurinaitis
Karlos Dansby – INJURED (PROBABLE)
Clint Session – WATCH PLAYING STATUS
Paul Posluszny
Jonathan Vilma

1. LILB Demorrio Williams – Williams has been one of the most underrated tacklers this season because he plays on a bad team and because he is the epitome of a non-big play performer (no sacks, INTs, fumble recoveries, or forced fumbles this year). He had 13 solo tackles last week against the Browns (who ran a ton) and I foresee him compiling another nice stat line this week against Cedric Benson and the Bengals, who will look to run the ball 30+ times against the crappy Chiefs run defense.

2. WLB Mike Peterson - Peterson is one of those linebackers that is either great or he completely sucks. It really depends on his matchup. And he has a great matchup this week in the Buffalo Bills. The Bills are starting Brian Brohm (who the hell is that?) and will therefore look to run the ball 70-75% of the time. I expect many tackle opportunities for Peterson in this game.

3. WLB James Anderson - After Anderson’s monster performance last week, I’m sure many fantasy owners have/are looking to snatch him up off the waiver wire. If he’s still there, pick him up. He has another great matchup against the Giants this week.

DEFENSIVE BACKS

Every Week Starters:
Eric Weddle
Charles Woodson
Troy Polamalu – INJURED (QUESTIONABLE)
Darren Sharper
Tyvon Branch
Antoine Bethea – WATCH PLAYING STATUS
Yeremiah Bell
Oshiomogho Atogwe – INJURED (PLACED ON IR 12/9)
Dashon Goldson
Bernard Pollard
Bryan Scott – INJURED (OUT)
Brian Dawkins

1. SS Tanard Jackson – Jackson is what a like to call a “fringe” IDP player. He’s in the upper echelon of largely available waiver wire players but not quite good enough to be an every week fantasy starter. However, this week he has a great matchup against the New Orleans Saints, so make sure and get him in your lineups. I like Jackson for 8-10 total tackles this week.

2. SS Mike Brown – I am usually hesitant about recommending “Michelle” Brown because a) he gets injured way too much and b) he’s incredibly inconsistent at times. However, it’s getting late in the year and he has a fantastic matchup against the Bengals this week. I’m looking for Brown to put up Mike Brown numbers this week and not Michelle Brown numbers.

3. SS Nedu Ndukwe – That name never gets old! Ndukwe has always been a fantasy favorite of mine due to his consistent tackling production. He’s had two monster tackling weeks in a row and he gets the Chiefs this week. I look for the Chiefs to pound the ball with speed-burner Jamaal Charles a lot this week. Consequently, Ndukwe will probably be asked to play close to the line of scrimmage to stop the run. I like his chances for a great week.

Sits

*The IDP Guru’s Sit of the Week*

MLB Larry Foote – Foote is usually one of the more consistent tackling linebackers in the league. However, he faces the 49ers this week who give up the 3rd least amount of points to opposing linebackers. Don’t expect much out of Larry this week.

DEFENSIVE LINEMAN

1. RDE Shaun Ellis – Ellis is one of those players who only puts up big fantasy points against crappy offensive lines. Well, he plays the Colts offensive line this week and they’re anything but crappy. Have Ellis on your bench this week.

2. RDT  Albert Haynesworth – Some may be tempted to pickup Haynesworth after his big game on Monday Night Football (6-0-1), but I would advise against it. Not only has Haynesworth been riddled with injuries this year, but he faces the Cowboys who are very stingy when it comes to giving up fantasy points to opposing defensive tackles.

LINEBACKERS

1. WLB Andra Davis – Davis has really struggled the last 4 weeks after a hot start to the season. And things won’t get any easier for him this week against the stingy Eagles. Stay away from Davis!

2. SLB Chad Greenway - Many think that due to the injury to MLB E.J. Henderson, Greenway’s numbers are going to increase. I don’t buy into that theory. I think Greenway’s numbers will remain relatively stable and Henderson’s replacement, Jasper Brinkley, will have a large increase in fantasy production. Minnesota plays the Bears this week, and even though it’s a division game, I don’t see the Vikings defense on the field very much (if you know what I mean). This means less tackle opportunities for Greenway. Ultimately, he’s an alright play this week, but I would explore other LB options if possible. 

DEFENSIVE BACKS

1.  SS Erik Coleman – At one point during the middle of the season, I though Coleman was a good enough fantasy player to be considered “matchup independent.” However, over the last 3-4 weeks Coleman has begun to slow down and is therefore no longer an every week starter. He has a horrible matchup this week against the Bills.  Stay away from Coleman this week.

2. SS Brandon Meriweather – I personally think Meriweather is overrated and is owned in way too many ESPN leagues (52%). He’s not a particularly strong tackler, although he does have 4 INTs for the year. He has a bad matchup this week against the Jaguars, so I would avoid using him if possible.

I hope you found this article to be helpful and enjoyable!

Please feel free to leave comments, questions, or derogatory remarks!

Thanks!

Ryan Sitzmann (The IDP Guru)

If you liked this article, make sure to check out our other great Week 16 articles.

There were some inspiring performances in week 8, Julius Peppers and Demarcus Ware have been red-hot as of late and seem to be back to their stud production levels, while Jairus Byrd (BUF, DB) is showing some incredible consistency making big plays on defense for his club.

This week we have a few names you should be watching throughout the next couple of weeks, these guys are primed for a breakout performance in week 9. Start of the week goes to Dumervil, who has been on a torrid sack pace this year. Elvis is in the building and gets to feast on Ben Roethlisberger this week…..enough said!

Let’s get started!

Julius Peppers is playing some of his most potent football in '09!

Start of the week: Elvis Dumervil, LB, DEN!

Start’em:

1) Trent Cole (DE): Trent Cole has proven to be a force at the DE position, this week he has a favorable match-up against Tony Romo and the Dallas Cowboys. With the Eagles and Cowboys ability to score points through the air, both teams should be poised for defensive production throughout the campaign. Start Trent Cole with high expectations to get pressure on the QB, and he could just prove to be a beast this week against a division rival.

2) Clay Mathews JR. (LB): Mathews is proving to be a force from the OLB position, his ability to wreak havoc with his speed and strength on the outside should prove to be a force against a woeful TB front that’s had problems all over the field. Josh Freeman will be the QB under center when these two faceoff on Sunday, it should be quite a game for Mathews who will look to put Freeman on his back all game…..or at least most of it!

3) Lawrence Jackson (DE/DL): Lawrence Jackson isn’t a huge IDP name yet, but he is getting points on a consistent basis and seems to have a favorable match-up with the Detroit Lions. If you have a Jared Allen or Calvin Pace on a bye week, then your best bet is to pick up Jackson who has four sacks in seven games this season. With his ability to get pressure, he should be a good bet to see Stafford in the backfield at some point during their meeting.

4) Antrell Rolle (DB): Rolle has been on a roll lately, turning himself into one of the hottest DB’s in fantasy football. The switch from corner-back to safety is paying huge dividends for his fantasy value, this week he gets a turnover-prone Jay Cutler. With the Bears throwing the ball more than usual these days, Rolle and the rest of the secondary should have plenty of opportunities to make plays on the ball. This game should prove to be a battle through the air, with Chicago’s running-game looking less than stellar.

5) Antoine Bethea (DB): Bethea has been showing tons of potential, and his match-up is always favorable when your team leads every game. With Manning leading the offense this game should prove to be an aerial contest, and what’s better for an IDP safety than constant opportunities to make plays? Schaub’s main focus is to get the ball to Andre Johnson, so Bethea will be challenged to make plays all game. Start him with confidence this week.

Sit’em:

1) Julius Peppers (DE): If you happened to get a glimpse of my last weeks IDP article, I chose to sit Peppers against Arizona…..how did that work out? Not very good, as Peppers lit up Arizona’s front line and even got an INT for a TD. Could I be making the same mistake this week against New Orleans? Peppers is one of the most elite DE’s in the game and should be in the top five for IDP lineman, but you have to take into account that New Orleans doesn’t give up many fantasy points to DE’s. Last week I told you to sit Abraham against New Orleans…..which turned out to be a good sit, as Abraham had trouble trying to get to Brees all game. It’s not too far fetched to think this beast gets Brees, but it’s a tough match-up.

2) Brandon Meriweather (DB): Meriweather is usually a really good IDP DB, but not this week. Miami has proven they can run the ball consistently against even the best of defenses, this week will be no different as Brown and Williams will combine to rush the ball as much as possible and keep Brady and the Patriots offense off the field for most of the game. Miami gives fantasy points to LB’s more than DB’s and that trend should continue throughout the rest of the regular season. Sit Meriweather and get yourself a replacement for this week.

3) James Harrison (OLB): This seems kind of like the Julius Peppers situation, amazing talent with a tough match-up. Harrison will find life very tough this week against that mauler Ryan “don’t even think about it” Clady. Clady is easily one of the best tackles in football (just ask Cutler if he misses him yet!) and Harrison will find that out very shortley. This is going to be the best match-up this week, while everyone else will be focusing on Kyle Orton and Roethlisberger, I will be watching these two freak athletes go head to head. If you are just a plain old fashion fan of football, this is the best match-up to watch this week….by far!

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AFC West – San Diego; The Chargers pretty much take this division by default. Kansas City has fired their offensive coordinator just two weeks before the start of the season, Oakland’s Head Coach is under investigation for allegedly punching an assistant, and the off-season drama in Denver negates any chance they may have had this year. Opponents’ problems aside, the San Diego Chargers are one of the most talent-laden teams in the NFL. LaDainian Tomlinson has reached NFL running back senior citizen status as he turned 30 years old this summer, but splitting some carries with little man Darren Sproles should help him stay healthy and effective. LT will rebound from his “down” year (1500 total yards and 12 TDs). An elite O-line and a defense that specializes in takeaways and rushing the passer will make you a contender every year. Philip Rivers stepped up his game last season, vaulting himself into the upper echelon of NFL QBs. Vincent Jackson took a huge step up last season as well, becoming not only a deep threat, but also a legitimate #1 receiving option. San Diego should run away with this division, but then again they should have last year as well. Since taking over for Marty Schottenheimer in 2006, Head Coach Norv Turner has seen his team’s win total drop by three games each year, down to just 8-8 a year ago. Turner bailed himself out last season with an overtime win over the Colts in the playoffs, but if the Chargers do not make a serious run this season he could find himself looking for a job in 2010.

Stud – LaDainian Tomlinson, San Diego: Rivers was the stud for San Diego last season, but I think a returned focus to LT is far more likely than a repeat performance from Rivers.

Sleeper -  Vincent Jackson, San Diego: His current ADP has him as a #2 receiver in most leagues, but by the end of the season he will be among the top ten fantasy receivers.

Bust – Darren McFadden, Oakland:You have to love Run DMc’s talent, but the Raiders will be awful this year. No quarterback and no receivers means their talented group of runners will be given no breathing room.

The best QB-WR Combo in the NFL

AFC East – New England; Say what you want about Jay Cutler or Brett Favre, but the team getting the biggest upgrade at QB this season will be the Patriots. 11-5 in 2008 with the inexperienced Matt Cassel under center, New England will be very close to their 2007 form with Mr. Bundchen once again throwing the ball. The Pats still have premier talent surrounding Brady on offense, has there ever been two receivers that complement each other better than Randy Moss and Wes Welker? Expect both to see a spike in production this season. The retirement of long-time defensive leader Tedy Bruschi may hurt chemistry, but Jerod Mayo showed last year that he is going to be a super star in this league. New England’s weakest link last season was undoubtedly the secondary, a fact underscored by their off-season commitment to improving that area. Free agent Leigh Bodden was added to accompany youngsters Jonathan Wilhite, Darius Butler, and Brandon Meriweather. With all of these pieces in place the Pats will make yet another post-season run, although this time I believe they will come up short in the AFC Championship game. Miami should continue building a really good team, but don’t be surprised if they take a step back this year. Sometimes rebuilding can be a rollercoaster ride. They will battle for a playoff spot, because teams lead by Bill Parcells always do, but don’t expect a Super Bowl run just yet.  

Stud – Tom Brady and Randy Moss, New England: I fully expect this duo to enter this season without skipping a beat from two years ago. They should both be considered near or at the top of their respective positions.

Sleeper - Ronnie Brown, Miami: This season looks like the perfect storm of fantasy production for Brown. Now two years removed from his ACL tear, entering the final year of his contract, and his only competition for carries is 32 years old.

Bust – Thomas Jones, NY Jets: Coming off a career year in 2008, you may be tempted to over-value Jones. He is now over the 30-year threshold and may be the second or third best running back on the team. 

AFC North – Baltimore; With offensive coordinator Cam Cameron and quarterback Joe Flacco entering their second year together in Baltimore, look for huge improvements on the offensive side of the ball to go with the Ravens legendary defense. If you can take anything from preseason, it looks like Flacco will get a lot more passing opportunities in 2009.  Through three games he ranks second in passing yardage and the Raven offense has been decidedly more balanced compared to last season. We know they can run the ball effectively, but if they are able to add a down-field attack as well they will have little trouble outscoring opponents. The Ravens defense has ranked 6th or better in total yards through 11 of the past 12 seasons, or right around the time Ray Lewis came to town. Although he is getting older, he is the leader of a young and talented defensive nucleus that includes Ed Reed, Terrell Suggs, and Haloti Ngata. The Raven lost three times last year to the defending champion Pittsburgh Steelers, so they will be hungrier than ever. I believe that hunger, along with Pittsburgh’s post-super bowl hangover, will allow Baltimore to take this division and ultimately end this season as the Super Bowl Champions.

Stud – Pittsburgh and Baltimore Defense: Not much is guaranteed to any offensive players in the defensive-minded AFC North, but we all know these defenses will once again be two of the best.

Sleeper – Joe Flacco, Baltimore:I would have went with Ray Rice here, but I think people are catching on. The latest draft results put him around the 20th running back off the board. Flacco is mostly seen as an afterthought in fantasy circles, but he will constantly be working with good field position and stacked defensive boxes. He could easily eclipse 22 TDs and 3,500 yards.

Bust – Jamal Lewis, Cleveland: This guy just looked done last year. He would have some value as a goal-line back on a good offensive team, but in Cleveland he is just too old and slow to stay on the field. 

Ed Reed, the NFL's Premier Defensive Playmaker

AFC South – Indianapolis; The NFC East is still the best division in the NFL, but the AFC South is closing the margin quickly. Tennessee was a big suprise last year and Houston looks like a team on the verge. Do not underestimate Jacksonville either, as injuries derailed what many thought would be a very successful 2008 season. With an improved offensive line and the experience of Torry Holt, David Garrard will rebound this season. But of course, when Peyton Manning is in the division with a full, healthy off-season the Colts have to be the favorites. The coaching change from Tony Dungy to Jim Caldwell has to have some effect from a leadership standpoint, but with a QB like Manning this team has plenty of leadership to spare. First-round draft pick Donald Brown will pair with Joseph Addai to help shoulder the load in the running game. Anthony Gonzalez enters his all-important third year in the league and he has the heavy burden of replacing Marvin Harrison in the starting lineup. Run defense will continue to be a problem for the Colts’ under-sized defensive line, but second-round pick Fili Moala provides some added beef in the trenches. Even with their struggles against the run, only 6 teams gave up fewer points than the Colts in 2008. It is very likely a wildcard team will come out of the South, with my pick being the Texans. Yes, their hopes are pinned to the unstable health of their QB Matt Schaub, but if he can actually make it through an entire season Houston’s offense will be elite. Mario Williams has emerged as one of the best all-around defensive ends in the league, justifying himself as the #1 pick over Reggie Bush and Vince Young back in 2006. Clearly Tennessee also has the talent to compete as well, but I refuse to put any faith in Kerry Collins to be the  difference-making quarterback he would have to be for the Titans to make any noise in the loaded AFC South.

Stud – Peyton Manning, Indianapolis:Maybe the surest thing in all fantasyland, we just know Manning will pass for close to 4,000 yards and 27 TDs every year. That kind of confidence is a rarity. Although there are QBs whose upside is higher than Mannings, none can match his consistency.

Sleeper – David Garrard, Jacksonville: Few people realize Garrard was a top ten QB in most scoring formats last season, and his O-line and receiving corps should both be better this year. Garrard’s ability to run adds to his value, he should add around 300 yards and 2-3 TDs with his feet.

Bust – Owen Daniels, Houston: I love Daniels in reality, but in fantasy he is not targeted in the red zone enough with the presence of Andre Johnson, Kevin Walter, and Steve Slaton.