For many of you out there that are not familiar with NEXFL, the NEXFL is the National Experts Fantasy League. It is a 32-team league that includes Offense and Individual Defensive Players (IDP) and only has one “copy” of a player. There are a few other 32-team leagues out there, but many have two “copies” of a player (i.e. two teams can own Adrian Peterson, etc.). That is not the case in NEXFL. This is not a league for the unseasoned or casual fantasy fan. The draft is 23 rounds and amounts to over 730 picks that are selected through an online draft over the span of approximately a month. The purpose of NEXFL is to establish a league that is unlike any other. The concept was originally developed by Ryan “The Warden” Houston and later enhanced by George “SpiGuy” Kerwood and now Tom “Tomdiggs” Digliani in the hopes of providing fantasy football enthusiasts with a much more difficult and challenging task: Represent an NFL team and create the ultimate Fantasy Football team with precious resources. Do you have what it takes to compete?

To take a look at the teams and rosters for this season, check out the league site:

http://www14.myfantasyleague.com/2011/home/44638

Now, here is my personal analysis of this year’s teams and projections. These are my opinions and mine alone as the commissioner and avid NEXFL enthusiast.

For those that want to take part next year, start studying up on your IDP and deep sleepers. Then follow the league from afar throughout the league and let me know your interest so I can place you on a waiting list for the 2012 season. The league usually has 6-8 vacancies that open up per year.

Without further ado, here’s the league as I see it through my crystal ball.

AFC East
1. Bills – The reigning AFC Champs return with another solid squad. Vlad looks to be forming the basis for being an annual contender now after breaking through to the playoffs for the first time last season. While Alex Smith will hurt him in a division filled with exceptional QBs, the Bills’ depth and strength at WR and LB will carry them. If Dez Bryant does not pan out or if Austin Collie gets hurt then they could be in trouble. I expect big things from both, however. D’Qwell Jackson and Jonathan Vilma will carry the D and will be helped a lot by Trent Cole and Morgan Burnett. The real player to watch for the Bills is Lance Kendricks. If he stands out during the year like he has this preseason then this team could be dangerous. If one of many risks goes awry they could fall out of the playoff picture. I want to predict a better record, but with all the risks and with Alex Smith I need to temper expectations. Prediction: 8-5

2. Dolphins – Jerm has once again put together a tough squad. Joe Flacco, Mike Thomas, and Wes Welker will help carry the offense. The D has some good players in Robert Mathis, Jon Beason and Kevin Burnett. Beason’s early season injury is one to watch. If he misses time it could doom the Dolphins’ chances out of the gate in the early divisional games. I see them being slightly off of the Bills in running for the division crown. Prediction: 7-6

3. Patriots – The Pats may have a new NEXFL owner this year, but they drafted well. Michael Vick will be the first piece that will help carry this offense. However, there is some serious offensive talent here in addition to Vick with Rashard Mendenhall, Pierre Garcon and Greg Olsen. Olsen could be a gem in this league. The defense has some nice balance with AJ Hawk, Daryl Smith and Devin McCourty leading the way. Depth is an issue. There isn’t much at DL and Paris Lenon and Keith Brooking may not be starting for their NFL teams for very long. A good, but not great rookie year for the Pats. Prediction: 5-8

4. Jets – Just like the NFL Colts; this team’s status relies on Peyton Manning’s health. Manning will run this offense with Michael Turner, but a lack of talent at WR and LB could possibly hurt this team. James Jones and Plaxico Burress need to step up to help this team. Jason Witten should remain a stud. The DBs may all be cornerbacks, but having Charles Tillman, Richard Marshall and DeAngelo Hall will help offset the lack of talent at LB. Clay Matthews and Tamba Hali really need big years to help this D out. Prediction: 4-9

Summary: This division went from being one of the deepest last year to being a little thin this year in my opinion. I only see one team coming out of this division into the playoffs. Currently everyone is chasing the Bills in my opinion.

AFC North
1. Browns – Wow what a difference a year makes. Dave went from a 5-8 owner last year to maybe assembling the best team in the NEXFL this year! Colt McCoy, Maurice Jones-Drew, DeSean Jackson, Steve Smith (Car), Braylon Edwards and Fred Davis make for a damn scary offense. The defense has some great LBs for a 32-team league in Nick Barnett, Stewart Bradley and Rocky McIntosh. Even the DBs have potential with Glover Quinn and William Moore leading the way. The only real weakness on this team is along the D-Line. There is not much there. Not a bad spot to be weak. I am not looking to facing them in week 8. Prediction: 10-3

2. Ravens – Yergs is in the running every single year and this is why. He just builds a ridiculously balanced team. Shonne Greene, Andre Johnson, Julio Jones and Brandon Pettigrew will make for a great base for the offense. His defense could be scary. Carlos Dunlap and Justin Tuck make for a great pairing at DL and they are filled in the starting lineup with Geno Hayes, Clint Session and Brandon Spikes. As long as the LBs can stay healthy (no small task with Spikes and Session already missing time), then this team will be in playoff contention. Prediction: 8-5

3. Bengals – Mike may be a new owner here, but his team turned out pretty well for his first NEXFL draft. Kevin Kolb will form a lethal one-two punch with Ray Rice on offense. If Dallas Clark stays healthy, he could be the best offensive player on the team. The WRs will decide how good this team can be. Nate Burleson, Michael Jenkins and Andre Roberts will all be NFL starters, but may not offer much punch in the box score. If they step up on offense, there is definitely enough on defense (Gary Brackett, Donald Butler, Cliff Avril, Patrick Peterson, and Antrel Rolle) to help buoy this team to the edge of playoff contention. Might be a bit tough in this division, however. Prediction: 6-7

4. Steelers – George is a seasoned vet of this league. I seemingly never like his teams and half the time I am right and half the time I am dead wrong. This year I am not high again. I love Matt Schaub and Matt Forte leading the offense and I like Todd Heap with how much Kevin Kolb has historically used the TE. The WRs are suspect though. If Steve Smith (Phi) and Eddie Royal can become decent fantasy contributors, then this team will prove me wrong. If they don’t the offense could be hurting a bit. Paul Posluszny and DeMeco Ryans will help carry the defense along with Dawan Landry. However, a lack of a third starting LB could hurt the overall production. Prediction: 3-10

Summary: This division might be close and is very good at the top. I do not like the fact that my AFC South division crosses over with this division this season. I definitely see two playoff teams coming out of this division. The Browns are the team to beat here and maybe in the AFC and entire NEXFL.

AFC South
1. Colts – Just as I said last year, some people do not rate their own teams. I say that is a cop-out! I have no problem addressing the likes and dislikes of my own team. I love my starting WRs, TEs and LBs. Last year I was 10-0 with Matt Hasselbeck as my QB. This was with him having less explosive options, less of an O-Line and less of a running game in Seattle then he will have in Tennessee this year. I think he could finish around the 20th rated QB and that should be just enough to help out. RB is a problem spot yet again. I lost my best one (Ryan Williams) for the year and will now have to rely on Reggie Bush yet again. Not good in a non-ppr RB league. Greg Jennings, Kenny Britt, Michael Crabtree, Jared Cook and Rob Gronkowski should help cover me though. I may have picked the wrong NE tight end, but if so that is my biggest regret on offense. My DL was terrible last year so I tried to fix that this year. I love having Julius Peppers and Matt Roth to start the year while Derrick Morgan gets healthy. The DBs are not stellar, but they do consist of a few high tackle CBs. I clearly need Tanard Jackson to get reinstated or I am in trouble here. The LBs lack depth but are big at the top. Despite losing Travis Goethel to a season ending injury already (yes, another), I still have David Hawthorne, Daryl Washington and NaVorro Bowman. That is likely three-100 tackle LBs and two with the chance to be 120 tackle guys. I like my team but have a brutal schedule and will not touch last year’s 10-3 record. Prediction: 9-4

2. Jaguars – I am getting sick of the Jags putting together good drafts. They are clearly putting pressure on this division. I cringe at facing this offense. Matthew Stafford, Michael Bush/Daniel Thomas, Miles Austin, Danny Amendola, Jermichael Finley…are you kidding? Even the extras like Harry Douglas are serviceable. The only hope is that the LBs do not perform. Having four starting NFL LBs is a luxury in this league and the Jags have them. None are exceptional, but Sean Lee, Chris Gocong, Michael Boley and Moise Fokou are good enough to keep the D afloat. Their O is probably better than the Colts, but the D might be a tiny bit behind. Close call. Prediction: 8-5

3. Titans – This team has the potential to steal the division away from the Colts of the Jaguars. Brandon Marshall and Percy Harvin are a hell of a one-two punch in a WR ppr league. If Aaron Hernandez keeps up this tear he is on, this offense is going to kill. LeGarrette Blount will be a great non-ppr RB too. The Jacksonville QB is a bit scary. They will be a good point producer while David Garrard is in there. Once Blaine Gabbart gets in, however, the QB spot could become an issue for them. You may not get much better than Patrick Willis and Brian Cushing as a 1-2 punch. Ndamukong Suh is going to be huge too. The D does not have much beyond them, however. They could surprise, but seem a tiny bit behind the other two teams in their division above them. Prediction: 6-7

4. Texans – This team might lack some punch on offense but will be held up by a strong defense. The D is led by the aging but exceptional duo of Ray Lewis and London fletcher. If they both continue to defy father time, this LB group will be brutal to face. Quinten Mikell, Earl Thomas and Major Wright will be great DBs too. While Drew Brees and Peyton Hillis are scary, the receiving options are a bit limited. Jacoby Ford, Mohammed Massaquoi, and Denarius Moore need to step up for them to compete weekly. Brent Celek will help too. I see this team being great if their WRs pan out. If not they will not be. I don’t have much faith in the WRs so I have them lower. They could surprise if I am wrong. Prediction: 4-9

Summary: I see this division as being considerably stronger than it was last year. The Colts and Jags will likely fight at the top if they remain healthy all year. This division could easily produce two playoff teams and do not be surprised if the Titans surprise the Colts or Jags and steal the division.

AFC West
1. Broncos – Many people might be sleeping on Kevin after last year. I will not. Kevin has been the historical competitor I compare myself to every year since I have been in this league starting in 2006. Kevin won the AFC West from 2006-2009 every year. He averaged 9 wins a year in those years and almost 166 points per game. Last year he finished with the worst record in the league somehow. Well guess what folks, he’s back! Mark Sanchez will not set the world on fire, but he will be a solid and stable NEXFL QB. Joseph Addai, Larry Fitzgerald, Robert Meachem and Lance Moore will fill out a very nice NEXFL offense. The D is even crazier. Curtis Lofton, DJ Williams, Chris Harris, Bernard Pollard, Aaron Kampman and Matt Shaughnessy give this team exceptional balance. The key for them is the early season injury to DJ Williams. If his loss costs them some key division games then there will be room to make up. Prediction: 9-4

2. Chargers – Tim has quickly become a force to be reckoned with in this league. This is his third division in as many years, but he keeps putting together exceptional teams. Dwayne Bowe and Brandon Lloyd are a great set of NEXFL WRs. Kyle Orton and Jahvid Best round out the offensive talent. I am a bit concerned with this team relying so much on Denver’s passing offense under John Fox. Orton, Lloyd and Julius Thomas are three starters that could struggle in Denver’s passing offense sputters or is underutilized. Defensively they are scary. Desmond Bishop, Mason Foster and Joe Mays form maybe the best starting LB group in NEXFL. How long Mays hangs on to the starting job is key. There is not much at DL, but the DBs are loaded with undervalued talent in Melvin Bullitt, Chris Hope and Jim Leonhard. I can see them fighting with the Broncos all year long trying to win this division. Prediction: 9-4

3. Raiders – Another year and another good Raiders team. Matt Ryan is in for a huge year and the duo of Ryan Grant and Beanie Wells will give two great RBs and a nice potential trade chip as well. The WRs and TEs are a bit lacking but have a little pop. Can Jerome Simpson and Mike Williams perform despite Andy Dalton and Tarvaris Jackson QBing their teams? If not the Raiders will struggle a bit. Rolando McClain, Tyvon Branch and Eric Berry will be great for the defense. The rest is filled with NFL starters that will be good role players but not likely to be NEXFL stars. Slow and steady wins the race, but this is a tough division. Prediction: 6-7

4. Chiefs – Boy do the NEXFL Chiefs have a lot of NFL Chiefs! If the NFL Chiefs are as good as last year then great! If not then it is not so great. I expect the NFL Chiefs to slip and thus I am a bit low on the NEXFL Chiefs. Matt Cassel could be in for a rude awakening with Charlie Weis and that NE passing offense. He was great in NE under it and great with Charlie Weis running the show. Weis is gone now though. Jamaal Charles will be a beast, but the receiving options need to get healthy to have a chance. Chris Cooley is hurt. Emmanuel Sanders has been hurt. Antonio Gates is ridiculously good when he plays, but he needs to remain healthy. Steve Breaston has been hurt. There is a lot of uncertainty with the receiving options here. If any falter then the Chiefs are hurt. If they all stay healthy and come through then my prediction is way too low. Terrell Suggs and John Abraham are an awesome starting DL pair and Michael Griffin is a great DB starter. Depth beyond them is limited. James Harrison and Ernie Sims have been hurt this preseason and if Sims doesn’t start to begin the year, then this team has Harrison and Anthony Spencer and a bunch of reserve NFL LBs. It could get ugly if that happens. Prediction: 3-10

Summary: I see two likely playoff teams her and the Raiders might make a little noise and prove me wrong and make it a 3-way race. The Chiefs have a ton of potential, but they need to get healthy and stay that way to have a chance in such a tough division.

AFC- 105-103

NFC East
1. Redskins – Chris is one of the league’s wily veterans and he has built another nice squad this year. This team has few weaknesses. It is solid at QB with Jay Cutler and is built heavily around some solid WRs and LBs. Reggie Wayne and Santonio Holmes will carry this offense and if Ryan Mathews steps up the offense could be deadly. When the team gets completely healthy and has Thomas Davis, Lance Briggs and Keith Rivers, look out. I would predict an even better record except this division will beat up on each other a good amount. Prediction: 8-5

2. Cowboys – I am happy to see Andrew gone from the AFC South and he will continue to compete annually in the NFC East now. Andrew’s team is built around stable commodities like Eli Manning and DeAngelo Williams and while his WRs are a bit thin, he has Calvin Johnson and two great TEs to start in Kellen Winslow and Vernon Davis. His LB depth is exceptional too with DeAndre Levy, Jonathan Goff and Kavell Conner to start the year. By the time Conner could get passed by Ernie Sims, he might have Nate Irving starting. Plus he has Mathias Kiwanuka for insurance. He will be fighting for the division title all year. Prediction: 8-5

3. Eagles – Jack’s team here might be just as good as or better than the two I have ranked above him. He has great talent to win on offense with LeSean McCoy, Mike Wallace, Mike Williams and Kevin Boss, but his defense is where he makes up ground. He has two great D-Linemen in Charles Johnson and Jason Babin and early in the year he will have four starting LBs in Karlos Dansby, Casey Matthews, Thomas Howard and Wesley Woodyard. He has a few weeks to sort things out before DJ Williams and Keith Rivers return. Their imminent returns and his bad QB situation are the only reason I list the Eagles behind the Skins and Cowboys here. Prediction: 7-6

4. Giants – Doug is another owner that always seems to prove me wrong. I normally expect his teams to struggle only to find them near the tops of the leader board in the NFC in points scored every year. Hopefully he proves me wrong again this year. Doug has a lot riding on the Giants as always and he needs Travis Beckum to step up for him. I love Hakeem Nicks and I like AJ Green’s talent, but if Green struggles due to poor WB play then the receivers here could be hurting. The LBs are also pretty rough with only Cameron Wake and Andra Davis to write home about. Doug does make up for it with arguably the best DBs in NEXFL with Yeremiah Bell, Roman Harper and Louis Delmas. I could see him being great if AJ Green and Ryan Fitzpatrick play out. I am not 100% sold on that, however. Prediction: 5-8

Summary: I see two likely playoff teams here. These teams are going to beat up on each other all year. The division is really strong top-to-bottom. The division is seemingly always tough and this year will be no different.

NFC North
1. Lions – I had to pick next to Chris last year and it was no picnic. He has a knack for putting together some great teams. I see him being the class of the NFC North this year again. Sidney Rice’s bust potential scares me a bit, but there is enough talent on offense to make up for that with Jason Campbell, Tim Hightower, Vincent Jackson, and Early Doucet there to help. The TE situation is not pretty, lacking a starter on the roster. Luckily the defense is there to save the day. Barrett Ruud, Rey Maualuga and Pat Angerer will team with Jason Pierre-Paul to lead the D. They have a look of a division winner and high ranking playoff team. Prediction: 8-5

2. Vikings – The Vikings are another NEXFL team that often has a lot of their home team’s players. This year is no exception. The difference is the value this year. Chad Ochocinco, Anquan Boldin and Bernard Berrian will help the offense. As long as Donovan McNabb stays healthy, the offense will be ok. If he falters and Christian Ponder enters then this team is hurting as Berrian and Visanthe Shiancoe’s values would falter as well. The DBs and DLs on this team are nothing special, but the LBs are very nice, with David Harris, James Farrior and surprise preseason star Erin Henderson leading the way. If Kirk Morrison ends up starting in Buffalo at any point then this gets even better. All in all not a bad squad. Prediction: 7-6

3. Packers – I want to pick this team to basically win the division. They have a lot going for them. Aaron Rodgers is a stud and will carry them. Fred Jackson provides sneaky value at RB and Mario Manningham is set up to star this year. The problem I have is the lack of other weapons in the receiving game and the lack of oomph at LB. If Derrick Johnson and DeMarcus Ware can hold down the fort, then the Safeties with TJ Ward, Kerry Rhodes and Nick Collins can hopefully make up some ground. If there was a little bit more in the WR/TE department I could see them as a playoff team with a shot at the division. Prediction: 5-8

4. Bears – This is another team that is not barren and I hate predicting to finish this poorly. A team with Tom Brady, Cedric Benson, Mark Ingram, Brian Urlacher and Takeo Spikes is too good of a base to struggle mightily. However, there are just way too many question marks at WR and TE to stomach. When your top WRs and TEs are players that might not even start for their NFL teams (Roy Williams, Derrick Mason, Ben Obamanu, Tony Scheffler) then you know it could be a long year. Prediction: 5-8

Summary: This was a tough division for me to gauge. I don’t see the Packers or Bears being all that bad. They could flip-flop with the Vikings and all could be solid and competing to the bitter end just like last year. I just see the Lions above them for sure, that’s all. I only see one team making it out of this division into the playoffs this year. Maybe they will prove me wrong like they did last year.

NFC South
1. Buccaneers – I really like what Ty has done with his team. He is stocked strongly at QB (Philip Rivers), RB (Knowshon Moreno and CJ Spiller) and at WR (Marques Colston, Malcolm Floyd). He has Tony Gonzalez at TE but no depth behind him. He also needs one of his 3 other WRs to step up and form a decent WR3. On defense I love Elvis Dumervil and he has EJ Henderson and Von Miller to help out as well. If the Denver D struggles to pressure the QB then his team will struggle on D. They have looked good so far, so it is so-far-so-good. Prediction: 8-5

2. Panthers – Something tells me I am significantly under-rating the returning Champs. Ben Roethlisberger and Arian Foster are beats and will carry the offense. My concern is the receiving options again. This team needs both TEs to excel. Owen Daniels and Zach Miller need to be great for them to have a great offense. I don’t see much at WR to help carry the load. The defense here is what has me all types of uncertain. The DBs are top notch. George Wilson, Eric Weddle and Brent Grimes are awesome. The DL has Justin Smith and not much else. The tough part are the LBs. I do not believe in James Anderson as much as others do. The numbers speak for themselves, but I just don’t believe it. If Jamar Chaney goes back to the middle, this team could shoot up the division. If not, they have some work to do. Prediction: 6-7

3. Falcons – Welcome back Tim! Tim won the title in 2009 and then was out of the league last year. Here he is back again. I am not so sure I love the team, though. The Redskins QB will likely provide some ups and downs. Chris Johnson will be really good, and Marshawn Lynch provides some nice depth. However, if Steve Johnson struggles this team is in trouble. Johnson and Mike Sims-Walker are being relied on to carry a weak group of WRs and TEs. Defensively the DBs are great but the LBs and DL have potential and very little proven talent. I just can’t see a return to the playoffs unless everything goes right. In NEXFL it rarely does. Prediction: 5-8

4. Saints – To put it simply, I love the defense on Mike’s team and I hate the offense. The offense does not have much beyond Adrian Peterson. Cam Newton will struggle early on, none of the WRs are starters for their NFL team, and some are not even the third option for their teams. There are two very good TEs in Jimmy Graham and Dustin Keller, but both those teams have many NFL receiving options and they will be up and down week to week. It is hard to count out a team with guys like Osi Umenyiora, Chad Greenway, Stephen Tulloch, LaRon Landry and Adrian Wilson on it. I feel the need to though. With Umenyiora, Wilson and Landry dinged up, this team strength could be derailed really quickly. Prediction: 4-9

Summary: This was exceptionally hard for me. For some reason, I just simply do not like the teams in this division this year and the way they are built. I am also not an idiot and know that this division has represented the NFC in the championship three years in a row and has won the last two NEXFL Championships. These guys know what they are doing. They are likely to prove me very, very wrong. But as of now I can’t see more than one team coming out of here and I really don’t see much certainty beyond the Bucs.

NFC West
1. Rams – Dave jumped over to the NFC this year and then went on to build a great team. Sam Bradford was a nice snag when the QBs began flying off the board and Felix Jones should be good this year. He even grabbed DeMarco Murray as a handcuff, which could be big if he beats out Tashard Choice. The receiving options on this team and the LBs are great. Not only that, but they are deep. Jeremy Maclin, Lee Evans, Donald Driver, and Danario Alexander could all be starters for their NFL teams. Even Demaryius Thomas has late season upside. Ben Watson is a solid contributor and the LBs are built around James Laurinaitis, Sean Weatherspoon and Aldon Smith. Smith has looked good in his transition this preseason and the Rams can even ride Dan Conner early in the year if Jon Beason misses time. This team is primed for a run. Prediction: 9-4

2. Cardinals – For a newcomer to NEXFL, James has built a nice team. It would be even nicer if he had not lost his 23rd rounder due to his not being up to date yet on his league payment. As soon as he rectifies that and adds some depth he will be even more of a force to be reckoned with. What’s not to like about a team built around Josh Freeman, Darren McFadden, Roddy White, and solid defenders like Will Witherspoon and Bradie James. This team has the makings of one that can make some noise. Prediction: 8-5

3. 49ers – Todd’s team perplexes me. I can see them being 8-5 or 5-8. The core is solid. Jerod Mayo and Lawrence Timmons will be a nightmare to face. The question is on offense. Can Jordan Shipley be decent with Andy Dalton? Can Johnny Knox nab his starting spot back? Can Marcedes Lewis repeat last year? Can Steven Jackson stay healthy? Can the Miami QB produce? Too many questions for me to go high. But this team could easily reverse my predicted record. Prediction: 5-8

4. Seahawks – James is probably going to hate me for this. If I am not mistaken, I predicted him to be 6-7 last year and he was. Hopefully I am wrong this year. Tony Romo, Frank Gore, Santana Moss and Davone Bess will lead the offense. The season-ending injury to Tony Moeaki hurts a lot. There is not much depth on the Seahawks behind him and not much on the waiver wire. The DBs here are great but the LBs are not much to write about beyond Bart Scott….which isn’t saying much. I hope I am wrong but I see a finish similar to last year. Prediction: 5-8

Summary: This division went from last year’s joke to a strong one this year. I can easily see two teams coming into the playoffs out of here. The Rams look like they may even be the class of the NFC at this early juncture. All in all it could get wild in the NEXFL NFC West this year.

NFC- 103-105

Defense Start Sit week 5

My two top defenses of the week have to be the two best [with respects to the New York Jets]: Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers. With matchups at home versus injury filled teams, I really like both of these defenses to pump their chests this week. When looking at the rest of the schedule this week, there are a few matchups out there where one team has a defensive edge, but this week is much closer than most. With byes for 4 more teams, this might have to be the week you take a chance on a free agent defense. Here is week 5 of team defense start sit.

Start ‘em: Week Five Team Defenses

New Orleans Saints vs ARI: How can you not start the Super Bowl Champs defense versus a rookie starting his first game of his career, especially because he came out of a passing offense in BYU and will not be ready for this type of blitz schemes. The Saints have held the Cardinals to under 14 points in their last two matchups and I see that continuing on Sunday.

Houston Texans vs NYG: With Brian Cushing back for their defense off suspension and the Giants off playing one of the best games in at least a year [even if it was defensively more than anything], the Texans will come out firing here and Eli will be a turnover machine trying to catch up. The Texans have held the Giants to exactly 14 points in their last two matchups and I do not see that trend stopping when they play on Sunday.

San Diego Chargers vs OAK: Without Darren McFadden for a few weeks the Oakland offense is going to struggle trying to get Michael Bush back in his starting role. I like the Chargers defense this week because of their experience in this type of game keeping Oakland at bay. The Raiders average around 14 points a game versus San Diego in the past few seasons and I see that streak continuing when the Chargers travel to the Black Hole.

New York Jets vs MIN: I know the Vikings just acquired Randy Moss from the Patriots, but like the Jets had in week one with the pressure from Hard Knocks, the Vikings will be in a similar position in week 5 to come out the gates firing. The Jets will get to Brett Favre, and Adrian Peterson will face the 4^th best rush defense in the league; start the Jets.

Sit ‘em: Week Five Team Defenses

Jacksonville Jaguars vs BUF: The Jaguars are ranked 30^th in yards allowed per game, the Bills are due for at least some sort of semblance of some offense and this will be the week they get it. The Jags are also ranked 30^th in passing yards allowed, with that being said Ryan Fitzpatrick will put points on the board here and Jacksonville will come back to earth from that win against the Colts.

Atlanta Falcons vs CLE: I have not been a fan of the Falcons defense all season, and this week smells like a defensive let down from Atlanta. The Browns have beaten the Falcons in their last 3 matchups and I am not sold on the Falcons being able to shut down Peyton Hillis, because the Bengals could not. Seneca Wallace is doing the things necessary to keep the Browns in the game [61% completion]. Sit the Falcons this week.

Kansas City Chiefs vs IND: I really do not care if the Chiefs had 3 weeks to prepare for this one, I would not go near any defense playing the Colts at any point in the season [as long as Peyton is behind center]. The Colts have been averaging around 28 points a game this season and I see that number and more at home versus Kansas City coming off the scorching loss last week to the Jaguars. The Chiefs defense has been real good so far holding teams to around 13 points a game, I definitely do not see that continuing when they travel to Indianapolis to see Peyton.

Washington Redskins vs GB: So far this season the Packers offense have been held at bay, with Clinton Portis out 4-6 weeks the Redskins are going to struggle to keep possession of the ball in this one and Green Bay will take advantage. Green Bay has historically put up around 30 points on the Redskins and I see the Packers continuing that trend behind Aaron Rodgers and their explosive offense.

Reggie's best fantasy days are behind him.

We’ve been talking an awful lot about sleepers the last month, and we’ve mentioned some overvalued players in our over/under series, but in recent drafts a few names keep popping up that shouldn’t be.

As important as it is to know who to draft and when, it’s equally important to avoid fantasy landmines– guys who will leave craters in your fantasy production.

Last season I caught all sorts of flak for my preseason article declaring Michael Turner a bust. He certainly didn’t perform close to the second overall pick which is where he was being drafted. Being a bust is about not performing close to the value of where a player is picked. They need not be dreadful, just significantly under-performing their draft slot.

So below we have a list of some of this season’s likely busts, based on current ADP. In other words, unless they really slip, you don’t want them on your roster in 2010.

1. DeAngelo Williams, RB, CAR ~ Williams remains tethered to the top 10 RB listings based solely on his monster 2008 season. With Jonathan Stewart on the field, Williams is not likely to see those numbers again. 2008 was the exception, not the rule. He’s currently going in the second round, but his likely output is 4th round. Stewart will likely perform as well and he’s going in the 5th/6th rounds. Alternatives: Ryan Mathews, Shonne Green or Ryan Grant.
2. CJ Spiller, RB, BUF ~ Spiller is a serious talent, but he’s not an every down back, and he’s being drafted ahead of his team’s starter. If you can get him in the 8th round or later, you should find value, but if you’re in a standard redraft league (not a keeper) then taking him in the 5th/6th rounds is likely to be a costly waste of a high draft pick. Alternatives: Felix Jones, Ahmad Bradshaw, Arian Foster, or here’s a thought, Fred Jackson.
3. Reggie Bush, RB, NOS ~ You pretty much know what you’re going to get with Reggie; about a 35th place RB finish. Yet every season he’s drafted around 10 spots and 6-10 rounds too early. This season he’s going two picks after CJ Spiller above. He is a massive fantasy bust at this price. Alternatives: Felix Jones, Ahmad Bradshaw, Arian Foster, or Michael Bush
4. DeSean Jackson, WR, PHI ~ There is no doubt that DJ has skills, but I believe last season we saw him at his best. Many are expecting him to get into the 80-100 reception range, but he’s more TD dependent than most top receivers. His 63 receptions in 2009 is more likely his ceiling than his starting point. He is being overvalued and going a good 2 rounds earlier than his performance level, especially in PPR leagues. Alternatives: Greg Jennings, Marques Colston or either Steve Smith.
5. Kenny Britt, WR, TEN ~ People are just in love with this kid despite the fact that he’s done nothing to merit any of their faith. He’s been so bad this summer that he’s barely got a grasp on the WR3 slot, yet he’s being drafted ahead of many WR1 players. According to the Nashville Tennessean, Titans coach Jeff Fisher threatened Friday to deactivate Britt on game days if he doesn’t get his head on straight mentally.
   “If I suspect there’s issues, he is not part of the 45 (-man roster),” said Fisher. “…If I suspect there would be a problem, we have other receivers I’ll play instead of Kenny.” Alternatives: Bernard Berrian, Jabar Gaffney, Mohamed Massaquoi, Louis Murphy or either Mike Williams.
6. Jets Defense ~ The Jets defense has been the consistent pick for D/ST taken in drafts, and as good as they are on the field, it doesn’t translate to fantasy fortunes. They limit scoring but don’t make a lot of big plays. And now they start the season without Darrelle Revis. But with or without Revis they are not one of the top 3 fantasy defenses. I currently have them ranked 4th, and they may still be generous. Alternatives: Philadelphia Eagles, Minnesota Vikings or Green Bay Packers.

And for you IDP players, here’s a 6-pack just for you…

1. Troy Polamalu, DB,  PIT ~ I love Polamalu, and now he’s insured his hair for a million dollars. You can’t help but dig this guy. But for fantasy purposes, his image overrides his fantasy value. He’s currently the 6th DB drafted in most leagues and in 10-12 team leagues he’s not even worth drafting. In deeper leagues he’s a DB3/4 at best. Alternatives: Our DB Rankings can give you a number of better options.
2. Darrelle Revis, DB, NYJ ~ Let’s forget for a moment that Revis isn’t even planning on playing in 2010 at this point, even if he were his current ADP of 9th among DBs is sheer insanity. When I had him ranked he was just outside the top 30, now he’s off the board. Like Polamalu above, people are paying for the name, not the fantasy production. See the rankings link above for alternatives. Update: Just hours after writing this Revis ended his hold-out, but nothing changes. He’s still a major bust as a top 10 DB fantasy pick.
3. Louis Delmas, DB, DET ~ This is more gut instinct than anything else, but I simply don’t trust Delmas, and i think he’ll be a bust this season. he may even give way to Aaron Spievey at some point if he can’t stay healthy. I think there are safer picks to be had who will put up equal to or better numbers. Alternatives: Tanard Jackson, Antoine Winfield, Antoine Bethea, or my sleeper pick, Kenny Phillips.
4. Brian Cushing, LB, HOU ~ I think Cushing is a stud, but in 2010 he’s missing a quarter of the season to suspension for steriod use. So you only get 3 quarters of a season with a guy who’s no longer pumped on steroids, and who will be out of sync with the team. As well, he also plays on the strong side which is the weakest for fantasy production. Cushing’s numbers are more dependent on big plays than most LBs. For all these reasons I’m letting someone else pay his freight this season. Even if you really believe in him, he’s still not worth a 13th round pick when there are still numerous LBs who can give you close to 100 solo tackles. Alternatives: Our LB Rankings can give you a number of better options.
5. Ndamukong Suh, DL, DET ~ A boy named Suh is on the fantasy radar of every new IDP player who is as yet non-savvy in the ways of the game. He is currently the 12th defensive lineman being drafted and the first defensive tackles. Here are some reasons way Suh is a fantasy bust. 1) He plays tackle, not defensive end. Tackles rarely put up fantasy viable numbers. 2) He’s a rookie, and rookie linemen rarely flourish in their first year, especially defensive tackles. 3) At his position with his team’s defensive scheme, he will be lucky to put up 20 tackles and more than 3 sacks.  Alternatives: Our DL Rankings can give you a number of better options.
6. Dwight Freeney, DL, IND ~ I must be insane. This guy had 13.5 sacks last season. Second only to Jared Allen among linemen. This is true. Still Freeney only had half the fantasy points of Allen, primarily because he doesn’t get many tackles. While Allen was the leagues top scoring DL, Freeney was 15th. He’s being drafted a good 6 – 7 rounds earlier than he should be. He will likely get around 25 solo tackles and 9-10 sacks, if healthy. Alternatives: Aaron Kampman, Darnell Dockett,  Robert Mathis or Justin Smith.

Thursday morning, NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell upheld the four-game suspension of Houston Texans LB Brian Cushing for his positive test from last season. Cushing’s test was positive for HCG.

Last year’s Defensive Rookie of the Year being gone for the first quarter of the season could have a huge impact on the Texans, and fantasy leagues.

When evaluating LBs in your IDP league, Cushing has to be at/near the top of the list based on his performance last year, Because he won’t be a factor, and owners rarely use bench slots for defensive players, Cushing could go undrafted in most leagues this year.

That could be a mistake.

Given his weekly production, having four weeks off could make Cushing more of a force down the stretch and he could actually have more fantasy value in later weeks this year. Also, HOU DEF could improve and be a solid waiver add after three weeks when Cushing’s return is on the horizon.

Downtown Crusher Brown, D'Qwell Jackson is back!

Welcome to the third and final installment of our IDP over and under articles. If you play in leagues that use Individual Defensive Players (IDP) then you probably already know that unlike the more mercurial defensive linemen or defensive back positions, the Linebacker position is the most straight up to draft for. Players offer more consistency year to year. There is greater depth, and really only one scoring consideration: solo tackles.

A handful of Linebackers do put up double digit sacks like their DL counterparts, and their names are good to know; James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley in Pittsburgh, Clay Matthews in Green Bay, Demarcus Ware in Dallas, Elvis Dumervil in Denver and Brian Orakpo in Washington. Of these six guys, only the two Steelers eclipsed 50 solo tackles, and while I’m not suggesting you discount these potential fantasy studs, keep in mind none of them broke into the top 10 at their position, and only three made it into the top 20.

So as my mantra has become, look for the guys with the high solo tackle numbers and opportunities. Save the “sack” guys for your DL position unless you find a real value where he is taken in your draft.

When you get to the IDP point in your draft the difference between a player’s ADP is usually around one full round. So the 28th linebacker off the board is going a full two rounds after the 26th. So do the math on just what a 5-10 ADP difference can mean. So relative to all other fantasy positions none has a greater need for finding value.

–Undervalued–

D’Qwell Jackson, CLE - It’s hard to image a tackle beast like D’Qwell being undervalued, but it seems last year’s injury has put him in an almost sleeper like draft state. FFToolobox.com and Fantasy Knucklehead’s both have him ranked at #7. IDPGuru.com has him at #5. Yet his ADP is 15th–a difference of 50 picks, or 5 rounds.

Michael Boley, NYG – Boley is a guy who can get you 90+ solo tackles with a 2-3 sacks thrown in. He was on his way to a 100 tackle season in 2009 before he got hurt. I currently have him ranked at 29th, and his ADP is 41st.

Justin Durant, JAX - J.D. lost some of his value when the Jags brought in Kirk Morrison, but he put up 81 solo tackles in 13 games last season, meaning a full 16 games could bring him to the century mark. His team will spend a lot of time on defense, so the opportunity is there for a big year. I have him ranked at 34 and his ADP is 45.

Demorrio Williams, KC - Williams ranked 33rd in LB fantasy points in 2009, but he was 9th overall in solo tackles with 95. If he can repeat those numbers, or come close–perhaps add a sack or two, you’ve got a very undervalued pick at ADP 52

Chad Greenway, MIN – Greenway is one of those quiet producers who puts up 80+ solo tackles each season. In his first three seasons he’s placed 21st, 13th and 29th in fantasy production, yet he goes into season four, with an ADP of 40. That’s not just undervalued– that’s sleeper territory.

–Overvalued–

Demarcus Ware, DAL - As mentioned above, Ware was one of only six linebackers to break into double digit sacks, but he still failed to break into the top 25 at his position. This is due to his sub-50 solo tackle numbers. Ware is always a threat to put up double digit sacks, but not 100 solo tackles.  His ADP is a current 17th. That’s just not good value.

Dumervil

Elvis Dumervil, DEN – Dumervil transitioned from defensive end to linebacker and exploded to lead the league with 17 sacks. While there is decent reason to believe Elvis can hit double digit sacks again, it’s rather probable that it won’t be 17, and a dozen seems like the ceiling.  So if you figure in his low tackles numbers (less than 40) with a dozen sacks, you get his 2007 numbers which were good for 42nd place overall. His current ADP is 30th.

Brian Orakpo, WAS – Orakpo’s rookie season ended with 11 sacks, and a 54th place fantasy ranking. Heading into 2010 he’s likely to replicate those numbers, and with a defensive scheme change to the 3-4, he could see an extra sacks or two. However, his tackles totals will really have to bump to get him close enough in scoring to match his ADP of 37.

Brian Cushing, HOU – Cushing is a brutish fantasy stud, and should destroy defenses for years to come. He’s a top 10 LB pick for me in Dynasty/Keeper leagues, but in 2010 redraft leagues an ADP as the 5th linebacker taken overall is big time crazy. he’ll miss a quarter of the season to suspension, and it will take him another few games to get into a groove. I’ve dropped his ranking to 12th, and that may still be too optimistic.

David Hawthorne, SEA - Talk about a fantasy revelation. Hawthorne stepped in for an injured Lofa Tatupa last season and destroyed other fantasy teams putting up 93 solos, 3 sacks and 3 interceptions for savvy fantasy owners. Tatupa is back this season, and Hawthorne moves to WLB (a less productive position usually). He also faces competition from Leroy Hill. I like Hawthorne’s chance to be a beast again in 2010, but there are enough question marks surrounding this season that an ADP of 22 seems a bit overvalued. That said, of all the guys on this list of overvalued players, I think D.H. has the best chance to prove me wrong.

Yearly stats are taken from FFToday.com, and ADP results from MyFantasyLeague.com

Houston Texans 2010 Fantasy Football Draft Targets

Quarterback

Matt Schaub: Once Matt Schaub was able to step out of the shadows of Michael Vick in Atlanta and into the cleats of a starting NFL quarterback he’s done nothing but improve. When you consider, on paper at least, that he works with a one to two weapon offense he has far exceeded expectations coming off of a massive 4,770 yd/ 29 TD season. When you crunch the numbers it’s easy to see why people expect such big things from him in 2010, and they should. I don’t think we’re going to see the marked improvement that he has shown over his three year tenure, simply because it was so dramatic, but he will be a more polished quarterback this year and his efficiency will improve even if his yard totals and touchdowns do not follow suit. Don’t get me wrong, he will win you games, but won’t do it every week. Schaub will go to the air often and no matter who is on the field he’ll produce another 4,500 yd/ 25 TD season. The only concern with Schaub is that when his attempt numbers increase his interceptions rise accordingly, so if you are in a big penalty league this should be a concern, albeit a minor one.

Running Back

Over the past few seasons the Houston Texans have been using Steve Slaton as their primary runner, but have had mixed results at best (Last season, regardless of injuries, was not in the top-40 in rushing yards) and as a team were ranked 30^th in the league in total rushing offense with only 92.2 yds/g. In other words, you are not going to find your fantasy stud running back on the Texans, but they could be solid back-ups in deep leagues because they tend to catch a lot of balls out of the backfield.

With Slaton slowly recovering from a neck surgery and speedy rookie Ben Tate still gaining experience and learning the system, it looks like the role of primary RB in the Texans backfield has been granted to this man…

Arian Foster: Doesn’t have a tremendous amount of experience playing with the big boys, only 54 carries for 257 yards and 3 touchdowns in his rookie campaign, but what he does bring to the table is a lot of raw talent to a backfield that has been lacking a prototypical running back. He is a 229 pound beast of a back and is equally skilled with his hands out of the backfield as he is a north-south runner and when he was finally given his chance to start in the final two games of 2009 he proved he has the goods when he rushed for 216 yards on 39 carries. Although that is a small sample size it goes to show that the kid is of a high pedigree and seized his opportunity to shine. Foster will get his fair share of touches, but what holds him back from being a big time fantasy starter is that the Texans backfield is very young and has become much deeper, which tends to cause coaches to adopt a running back by committee style offense. Gary Kubiak and co. could be leaning that way with the addition of Ben Tate in the draft, but it does not seem likely. While Tate will provide some much needed competition during the preseason I still believe that Foster will come out on top and could hit the 1,000 yard, double-digit touchdown mark if given the opportunity.

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Wide Receiver

Andre Johnson will continue his dominance and rack up major fantasy numbers

Andre Johnson: Arguably the best wide receiver in the NFL, calm yourself Larry Fitzgerald fans, I said arguably. Speed, size, agility, the guy is the total package and it is on display week-in and week-out. Johnson is the key to the Texan offense with his ability to stretch the opposition, which creates massive openings for guys like Kevin Walter, Jacoby Jones, and David Anderson. Andre Johnson will be one of the first three wide outs taken in just about every draft and is a top starter if you’re fortunate enough to get him. The last two seasons he has caught at least 8 touchdowns, made 100 receptions, and exceeded 1,569 receiving yards with no signs of slowing. No matter what league you’re in, all of the above are going to help you win games. As long as he can stay healthy and Matt Schaub is under center, this tandem will continue to make big things happen in 2010 with 1,500-1,650 yds and 9 touchdowns.

Tight End

Owen Daniels: The big question for the Texans is if Own Daniels will come back healthy and remain that way. Last year Daniels was well on his way to a 1,000 yard season before blowing out his ACL for the third time. A healthy Daniels provides a deep threat from the slot and is one of the best tight ends in the league down the field. Although the offense didn’t struggle without him last year, he adds another wrinkle and a different dynamic to their attack with his size and speed. On most passing downs Daniels is the second option so it is important for them to get him involved in the offense early and establish him as a threat. Regardless of the touches the wide receivers get, Daniels will still put in a solid 900-1,100 yard season and be a constant threat in the red zone with 6-9 touchdowns.

Defense

In order to be known as more than just the guy who wrecked Tom Brady's knee, Bernard Pollard needs to continue to be a stud in the Texans secondary

The Houston Texans defense made headlines this offseason for all the wrong reasons when their leading tackler, and AFC Defensive Rookie of the Year, Brian Cushing violating the NFL’s substance abuse policy and will be forced to miss the first four games of the season. This is a major blow for the Texans who already struggle with consistency on the defensive end and were forced to bring in a new tier of players with the loss Dunta Robinson. This puts a lot of pressure on the youthful Texans secondary where their first round draft pick Kareem Jackson is competing for a starting spot with other young CBs Brice McCain and Glover Quin. They are not major fantasy contributors as a whole with only 14 INTs, 30 sacks and 3 TDs, but they do have some solid individual performers in Mario Williams (9.0 Sacks) and Safety Bernard Pollard (4 INTs/102 tackles in 13 games). There is definitely a lot of room for improvement with such a young team, but the question remains: who will step up and fill the void left by Brian Cushing? Only time will tell on that one, but for now they will make due with who they’ve got: Xavier Adibi, Kevin Bentley, Darnell Bing and rookie Darryl Sharpton.

Schedule

Wk Date Opponent

1 Sun, Sept 12^th Indianapolis Colts

2 Sun, Sept 19^th @ Washington Redskins

3 Sun, Sept 26^th Dallas Cowboys

4 Sun, Oct 3^rd @ Oakland Raiders

5 Sun, Oct 10^th New York Giants

6 Sun, Oct 17^th Kansas City Chiefs

7 BYE WEEK

8 Mon, Nov 1st @ Indianapolis Colts

9 Sun, Nov 7^th San Diego Chargers

10 Sun, Nov 14^th @ Jacksonville Jaguars

11 Sun, Nov 21^st @ New York Jets

12 Sun, Nov 28^th Tennessee Titans

13 Thurs, Dec 2^nd @ Philadelphia Eagles

14 Mon, Dec 13^th Baltimore Ravens

15 Sun, Dec 19^th @ Tennessee Titans

16 Sun, Dec 26^th @ Denver Broncos

17 Sun, Jan 2^nd Jacksonville Jaguars

Matt Schaub will continue to light up the scoreboards this season, although it may not match his '09 output

This season will definitely be a good indicator if they should be taken seriously as an up and coming Super Bowl contender, and what better way to prove it than open up the season at home against the defending AFC champs, right? It would be a major surprise if the Texans can manage to take the division from the Colts, but stranger things have certainly happened. I believe the Texans best hopes lie in pursuit of the Wild Card, but that is no easy task with the competition they face outside their division. The good news is that they get to play the schizophrenic Jaguars twice and the Chiefs going into their Bye, which could either boost their confidence or break them entirely with the daunting second half looming ahead. I see key wins being Week 13 at the Eagles and sweeping their final two away games at Tennessee and Denver in to finish the year strong and put them in the playoff contention.

Coaching Strategy

Offense

Offensively there isn’t a tremendous amount that the Houston Texans need to do differently, but there is definitely room for improvement in their current system. Everyone knows the Texans are more than capable through the air, but when they play teams with strong secondaries, like the Jets, they are going to need to find a way to produce on the ground. A lot of people thought they would take an offensive tackle early in the draft, but they waited til the later rounds, and seem confident in their current personnel to get the job done this year and open holes for Foster, Tate and Slaton to attack. If they can strike some sort of balance, even a 60-40 pass-to-run ratio as opposed to 70-30, that may be enough to force teams to play honest up front, open more seams for their wide outs, and keep Schaub off his back.

Defense

Mario Williams is finally proving that he is the player we all thought he would be coming out of college

The key to the Texans’ success on the defensive side of the ball is going to lie in their linebacking unit. Without Cushing for the first four games of the season the Texans are going to have to put a lot of weight upon the veteran DeMeco Ryans and a few sets of inexperienced shoulders and hope that they can bear the weight. Everywhere else on the field the Texans have a strong balance between veteran players and younger talent. This could be the year that the Texans start to break out, but to do so they need to keep up with their rivals and stop floundering in the middle tier of team defenses. There are a lot of great individual playmakers but they need to find a defensive identity where individual talent translates into team success. They do not dominate in any singular defensive category, but what they need to accomplish every week with such a difficult schedule is to take their chances when the openings come and make sure they are within striking distance coming into the final two minutes because with their high-powered offense anything is possible.