It's all about the D in fantasy!

UPDATED: September 6, 2010

Every year brings new surprises in fantasy production at all positions but especially  for team defenses. It’s hard to gauge how strength of schedule, scheme changes, or player performance will ultimately impact the team’s defensive cohesiveness. In 2007, the San Diego Chargers and New England Patriots were the dominating team defenses. Last season they dropped to 10th and 25th respectively. In 2009, New Orleans came out of nowhere to be the #1 fantasy defense after placing 21st and 15th the previous two seasons.

More surprising were the ascension of the San Francisco 49ers and Denver Broncos defenses. After placing 26th in team defense in 2008, coach Mike Singletary got his squad to perform at a level worthy of 4th best overall. The Bronco’s new head coach, Josh McDaniel saw even better results as Denver went from 2nd to last in team defense in 2008, to fifth best in 2009.

So who will rise to the top in 2010? Will the Saints march on? Can the gold diggers mine more fantasy gems?  Or will it be the birds flying high again; the Philadelphia Eagles and Baltimore Ravens?

The Eagles have remained fairly steady the last few seasons, but the Ravens dipped to number eight last season. Still not bad for the league’s stalwart defenses. And let us not forget the Packers, who have been 3rd best two years in a row.

1. Philadelphia Eagles – The Eagles have a new QB and the 9th toughest schedule in 2010. They’ve been a top 2 fantasy defense the last two seasons, despite turnover, and they spread their fantasy value across the board. I think they are improved this season, and I expect them to spend more time on the field this year as well, which means more opportunity. They tied the league for 3rd in sacks in 2009.
2. Minnesota Vikings – They led the league last season with 48 sacks. They were 6th overall in points with only one defensive TD. If they can improve their interceptions this year they can do even better. Of course having Percy Harvin’s kick return skills can’t hurt either.
3. Green Bay Packers – There’s no reason to believe the Packers can’t make the top five for the third consecutive season. They’ve taken to Dom Caper’s new defensive scheme. They spread their fantasy points around, and no team had a better run defense last year than GB. They were also number one with 30 interceptions.
4. New York Jets – I’ve seen a lot of experts picking the Jets as the #1 fantasy defense in 2010. They may well be the #1 defense on the field, but as we saw last year, that doesn’t mean much. The Jets were often stifling, but that did not translate to fantasy points. They ended 2009 ranked 17th. I do think they’ll bring those numbers up this season. Their defense just keeps getting better which will translate to more big play opportunities, but first in fantasy? I think not. Even if Revis holds out, they are still a solid pick. Update: Revis ended his hold-out.
5. Baltimore Ravens – I think the Ravens rise back up this year and start to reassert their fantasy dominance. Not that they fell far last season; #8 overall. They gave up the 3rd fewest points in 2009, and with an improved offense, look for the defense to tighten it up even more.
6. Pittsburgh Steelers – The Steelers were 2nd in sacks with 47. They were a dominating defense most of 2009, even without their spark plug, Troy Polamalu for much of the season. With their QB on the shelf to start the year, look for the Steelers D to really step it up.
7. San Francisco 49ers – While I think the Denver Broncos will crash back down to fantasy earth this season, I believe the 49ers are for real. They have a solid core of players, led by fantasy studs like Patrick Willis, Dashon Goldson and Justin Smith. They also have one of the game’s best defensive minded coaches in Mike Singletary. If all that isn’t enough they play in one of the NFL’s weakest divisions and have the 5th easiest schedule (on paper) this year. People will still overlook them, so they could be a steal. While it’s only preseason, they did manage to go 4-0.
8. Dallas Cowboys – The Dallas fantasy defense was all but worthless to start last season. They were dead last in fantasy points the first couple of weeks, and other than a couple of big weeks never really lived up to their hype. They ended the year 15th overall. Call it an off year. I think they’ll start to make big plays again this season, and take better advantage of some opportunities that slipped by them last year.
9. New Orleans Saints - The Saints were an explosive fantasy defense last year turning 38% of their interceptions into defensive touchdowns…8 in all. Double the number any other team had. But defensive touchdowns are as much fortuitous luck as skill. How rare is it? Only one other team, the 2008 Vikings had 8 defensive TDs, this decade. So a lot of GMs will be snapping the Saints D up early this year, but they’ll likely end up with far fewer defensive TDs, which makes their overall fantasy value less. If not for their soft schedule this season I’d probably rank them lower.
10. Miami Dolphins – They are a quiet sleeper this season. Most fantasy GMs probably didn’t know the ‘Fins ended 2010 as the 7th most productive fantasy defense. In 2010 they have a new defensive coordinator in Mike Nolan. They also add Karlos Dansby from the Cardinals– a beast at linebacker.
11. New York Giants – 2010 was miserable for the G-men but their once dominant D should surface again this season. Osi Umenyiora returns, as does Kenny Phillips. The team also added stud safety Antrel Rolle from the Cardinals, and the drafted defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul. The final piece may have been the recent addition of veteran LB Keith Bulluck who steps in to replace Antonio Pierce. All signs point north in 2010.
12. Arizona Cardinals – The Cardinals were 6th in sacks last year and 13th on fantasy defense overall. This season they’ve lost some vets but gained a firecracker in Joey Porter, a sick defensive back in Kerry Rhodes, and some great young rookies. With less power on the offensive side of the ball, the defense will spend more time on the field, and they have a soft schedule. Rookie linebacker, Daryl Washington looks like the real deal.
13. Cincinnati Bengals – The Bengals are starting to put it together, and an improved offense will keep the defense fresh. The more I see this preseason, the more I like their chances in 2010. With a linebacking corp that features Dhani Jones, Rey Maualuga and Keith Rivers, and two of the league’s best corners in Leon Hall and Jonathan Joseph, they have the blueprint for fantasy production.
14. San Diego Chargers – The Chargers did not live up to their fantasy capabilities last year. They should get back on track this season, but without any real changes along the defensive line, they haven’t given themselves any new tools to work with.
15. New England Patriots – I originally had them ranked 20th this season. The defense is losing veterans left and right, and they are in a rebuilding stage on that side of the ball. However, they have two solid young safeties in Patrick Chung and Brandon Merriweather, and they just signed Jarrad Page for depth and experience. Jerod Mayo is back and healthy, and rookie LB Brandon Spikes looks like the real deal. They are weak at corner back, but that should mean plenty of tackles in the secondary.
16. Chicago Bears – Da bears lost a lot to injuries last season so you may be able to snag a sweet deal on a team defense, as they will likely outperform this ranking.
17. Indianapolis Colts – Their defense is solid but unspectacular
18. Tennessee Titans – They were a tale of two teams last season, but they have the play makers to be special.
19. Houston Texans – They have a great offense, and a playmaking defense, but they have a terrible schedule this season and they are without their top defensive playmaker to start the season.
20. Denver Broncos – They will fall back to earth after last season’s surprise start.
21. Carolina Panthers – This is one team with a chance to rise this year, but you can’t bank on maybes.
22. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - They are improving, but they’ll need some luck to be fantasy viable.
23. Buffalo Bills – They had some fantasy highlights last season but still had a poor showing overall. 2010 will be more of the same.
24. Cleveland Browns – They were better on defense than people gave them credit for, but that won’t help your fantasy team.
25. Washington Redskins – A lot of people think highly of their defense, but they were 3rd to last in fantasy points last season in the league’s toughest division, with a tough schedule in 2010.
26. Atlanta Falcons – Not a lot of big play makers.
27. Kansas City Chiefs – Eric Berry should improve their INT #’s but that’s about it.
28. Seattle Seahawks - Still too many holes and growing pains.
29. Oakland Raiders – They improved this off-season, but not enough to escalate them from the basement.
30. Detroit Lions – They are a better offensive team than people give them credit for but when your defense gives up an average of 31 points per game, well, there ya go. I expect improvement this season, but not enough to get them out of the fantasy defense cellar.
31. Jacksonville Jaguars – Their defense was deplorable all the way around last season. They had only 14 sacks and were the worst fantasy defense in the league. A switch to a 4-3 scheme should help this year, but I’m still not expecting anything better than a bottom five outcome.
32. St. Louis Rams - The Rams will be one of the leagues whipping boys this season and their slowly improving defense will feel it.

49ers fans and players have a lot to smile about heading into 2010.

The San Francisco 49ers have been struggling to right their ship for a good while now, and 2010 looks like they year they could make that happen in a solid way. They ended 2009 in 2nd place behind the Arizona Cardinals, but the birds lost a few feathers in the off-season and the 49ers panned some new gold. If QB Alex Smith can continue his connection with Vernon Davis and build chemistry with young receiving stud Michael Crabtree, taking the NFC West is readily within sight. This means good things for fantasy in the city by the bay.

Division: NFC West – Projected Finish: 1st Place

Strength of Schedule - #28 = 5th best. The entire NFC West gets a welcome schedule in 2010, meaning the already weak division has a chance to shine.

QUARTERBACK

From a fantasy perspective there’s a lot to like in San Francisco this season, and it all starts with Alex Smith. Smith was a decently effective fantasy performer after taking over the QB job for Shaun Hill last season. He averaged 2 TDs per game. In 2010 it’s his season to really make some noise. I currently have him ranked at #17.

RUNNING BACK

The 49ers have one of the league’s best RB’s in Frank Gore, and a Tier One, Top 5 fantasy tailback. He is one of the few true feature backs, and improvements in the offensive front can only help. His only concern is injury, so if you take Gore, you’re looking at his two back -ups, veteran Brian Westbrook or rookie Anthony Dixon. Glen Coffee retired this off-season, and the team signed Westbrook to help shore up the backfield, but Dixon has more upside and is more likely to get the bulk of the carries if Gore is out.

WIDE RECEIVER

Bring it, biatch!!!

After a lengthy hold-out last season, the team’s stud receiver of the future finally signed and joined the team, but he’s not the only receiving threat in San Francisco.

• Michael Crabtree – Once the rookie showed up he had 48 receptions for 625 yards and two touchdowns in 11 games. This season he could dominate. He will be ranked somewhere around #20 at WR.
• Josh Morgan – Morgan is the forgotten man, who still has great promise and skill. With team’s keying on Crabtree, Davis and Gore, Josh should be the benefactor of many deep balls. His receptions jumped after Smith and Crabtree took the field last year. He will likely be a sleeper this year as he gets overlooked.

Ted Ginn, Jr. is still in the mix as well.

TIGHT END

Vernon Davis finally exploded last season after toying with fantasy owners for several seasons. Almost 1000 yards and 13 TDs. A full year with Alex Smith and more weapons on the field should keep Davis a solid fantasy pick. I have him ranked at #4.

KICKER

Veteran Joe Nedney was largely unimpressive last season missing four attempts on only 21 FG kicks. He’s heading into his 15th season, and sophomore Shane Andrus is in the wings. At the moment I’d skip the 49ers kicking situation.

DEFENSE

When you think of fantasy defenses, San Francisco is probably off most people’s radar, but surprisingly they ranked 4th overall at seasons end. They tied for 3rd in sacks, 1st in fumble recoveries, and were one of eight teams to limit opposing teams to under 100 yards rushing per game. So while other fantasy GM’s are overpaying for the Saints, Ravens, Packers, Eagles and Vikings, you’ll know where to find the gold for cheap.

IDP names to know? Of course the list starts with the top overall fantasy IDP Linebacker – Patrick Willis. Defensive Lineman – Justin Smith. Defensive Back – Dashon Goldson, and perhaps rookie Taylor Mays.

2010 REGULAR SEASON SCHEDULE

Wk	Date	Game	Stadium	Time (ET)
1	Sep 12	SF @ SEA	Qwest Field	4:15 PM
2	Sep 20	NO @ SF	Candlestick Park	8:30 PM
3	Sep 26	SF @ KC	Arrowhead Stadium	1:00 PM
4	Oct 03	SF @ ATL	Georgia Dome	1:00 PM
5	Oct 10	PHI @ SF	Candlestick Park	8:20 PM
6	Oct 17	OAK @ SF	Candlestick Park	4:05 PM
7	Oct 24	SF @ CAR	Bank of America Stadium	1:00 PM
8	Oct 31	DEN @ SF	Wembley Stadium	1:00 PM
9	Bye
10	Nov 14	STL @ SF	Candlestick Park	4:15 PM
11	Nov 21	TB @ SF	Candlestick Park	4:05 PM
12	Nov 29	SF @ ARI	University of Phoenix Stadium	8:30 PM
13	Dec 05	SF @ GB	Lambeau Field	1:00 PM
14	Dec 12	SEA @ SF	Candlestick Park	4:05 PM
15	Dec 16	SF @ SD	Qualcomm Stadium	8:20 PM
16	Dec 26	SF @ STL	Edward Jones Dome	1:00 PM
17	Jan 02	ARI @ SF	Candlestick Park	4:15 PM

COACHING STRATEGY

Singletary walks the walk

OFFENSE

The team helped fortify the offensive line this off-season with two 1st round picks, in tackle Anthony Davis and guard Mike Iupati. This will help keep Mike Singletary‘s offense on the field. Singletary coaches work ethic and discipline which has rubbed off on the team

DEFENSE

Singletary is also extremely focused on defense, hence the team’s solid rankings in 2009 on that side of the ball. His players will only continue to blossom in 2010 under his firm tutelage. The team primarily uses a 3-4 defensive scheme, but on occasion will switch to a one gap 4-3.

Atogwe gets a leg up in this year's rankings

UPDATED: August 30, 2010

The Defensive Back position is the most difficult Individual Defensive Player (IDP) spot to draft for. The consistency at this position is almost nonexistent. Each season the top 10 performers will likely have an 80% turnover.  In 2008, Eric Weddle exploded and was pegged as the top DB pick going into 2009. Instead he plummeted to the 39th performing DB on the season.

One of the reasons for the high fantasy attrition rate at DB each season is a combination of shifting schedules, and the sheer luck of the draw. Successful DBs live or die by opportunity which can fluctuate greatly from game to game, season to season Linebackers and Defensive Linemen have a more consistent opportunity. For this reason it is generally a better draft philosophy to fortify your DL and LB positions before grabbing your first DB.

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Top 50 IDP Linebacker Rankings

Top 50 IDP Defensive Linemen Rankings

Welcome to Top Fantasy Football’s Week 17 edition of “IDP Starts & Sits” brought to you by “The IDP Guru.”

This will be the final installment of “IDP Starts & Sits” for the 2009 season. It’s been a great ride and I’ve had a blast recommending players and answering all of your questions. FYI, I will continue to write articles during the off-season. These articles will focus on the effects of IDP free agent signings, changes in defensive schemes, IDP rookies and their potential fantasy impact, etc. As always, feel free to contact me anytime with any questions you may have and thanks for all your support!

Most leagues are over with and the league championship has already been decided. But, for you owners who are in 17 week leagues, I’m here for you with some great IDP Start/Sit advice.

But before I get started with my recommendations, here is something I stumbled upon when doing my research for today. If you like to laugh, it’s definitely worth a look: Congresswoman Corrine Brown – Go Gata (With Subtitles).

Anyways, here are my IDP Waiver Wire recommendations for Week 17:

Starts

*The IDP Guru’s Start of the Week*

MLB Stephen Tulloch - Tulloch has been one of the most consistent tackling fantasy linebackers in the league this year. And with both starting WLB Keith Bulluck and SLB David Thornton out for the year, Tulloch has little competition for tackles. He has the Seahawks this week who have surprisingly given up the second most fantasy points to opposing linebackers over the last 7 weeks. Tulloch is a must-start this week.

DEFENSIVE LINEMAN

Every Week Starters:
Jared Allen
Julius Peppers
Elvis Dumervil
Justin Tuck
Trent Cole
Mario Williams
Robert Mathis – INJURED (OUT)
Andre Carter
Dwight Freeney – WATCH PLAYING STATUS
Will Smith
Brian Orakpo

1. LDE Mathias Kiwanuka -With Osi Umenyiora being regulated to playing only in third- down passing situations, Kiwanuka has become the Giants starting LDE. In those two games in which he’s started, he’s posted 13 total tackles (11 solo) and he should be able to post some nice tackle numbers this week against Adrian Peterson and the Vikings.

2. LDE Calais Campbell – Campbell has been a solid DL3 this year and slightly upgrades to a DL2 this week against the Packers, who have done a much better job of protecting the quarterback the last six to eight weeks, but are still susceptible to giving up sacks.

3. RDE Vonnie Holliday – Holliday has quietly registered three sacks in his last four games and he has a nice matchup this week against the Kansas City Chiefs, who have one of the worst pass-blocking offensive lines in the league. I can see Holliday having a couple of solo tackles and a sack this week.

LINEBACKERS

Every Week Starters:
Patrick Willis
James Harrison
Jon Beason
Barrett Rudd
London Fletcher
D.J. Williams
Curtis Lofton
Kirk Morrison
Brian Cushing
David Harris
David Hawthorne
James Laurinaitis
Karlos Dansby – INJURED (PROBABLE)
Clint Session – WATCH PLAYING STATUS
Paul Posluszny
Jonathan Vilma

1. MLB Jasper Brinkley – Rookie Jasper Brinkley has played well since taking over for the injured MLB EJ Henderson two weeks ago (click here to see how Henderson was injured). From the games I’ve watched, Brinkley seems to be around the ball quite a bit. He has a very good matchup versus the Giants this week and should be a great end of the season filler.

2. LILB James Farrior - Compared to his fantasy production last year, Farrior is having somewhat of an off-year. However, he provides good value this week because of his matchup against the Dolphins. Inside linebackers tend to put up great fantasy numbers against Miami and Farrior is the Steelers most consistent tackler. He should be a safe play for 7-9 total tackles this week.

3. WLB Geno Hayes – Hayes has really started to come into his own the last few weeks of the season. He’s registered a sack in each of the last two games and is starting to put up some nice tackle numbers. His matchup against the Falcons isn’t a good one, but the last time he played them he went 9-0-0. I have a gut feeling Hayes may reproduce a similar stat line this week. If you’re feeling a little risky, Hayes could be a great play.

DEFENSIVE BACKS

Every Week Starters:
Eric Weddle – INJURED (QUESTIONABLE)
Charles Woodson
Troy Polamalu – INJURED (QUESTIONABLE)
Darren Sharper
Tyvon Branch
Antoine Bethea – WATCH PLAYING STATUS
Yeremiah Bell
Oshiomogho Atogwe – INJURED (PLACED ON IR 12/9)
Dashon Goldson
Bernard Pollard
Bryan Scott – INJURED (OUT)
Brian Dawkins

1. SS Mike Brown – I recommended Mike “Michelle” Brown last week and he really came through (13 total tackles). He has a fantastic matchup against the division rival Denver Broncos this week. I’m expecting another great game with Brown this week.

2. SS Chinedum “Nedu” Ndukwe – I expect a big game out of Ndukwe this week. He has a fantastic matchup against the Jets. This is a must-win game for the Jets and, with that being said, they are going to run the ball a ton with Thomas Jones. The Bengals will put 8 in the box (including Ndukwe) to stop him and force pretty boy Sanchez to actually make a play.

3. RCB Ronde Barber – Barber is having a pretty quiet year due to his lack of interceptions (zero). However, his tackles numbers are actually up slightly this year and he has a great matchup against Roddy White and the Falcons. I can see Barber producing some decent tackles numbers this week. If you have a good lead in your league and are looking to play it safe, Barber is a good play. He hasn’t had less than 4 solo tackles since Week 7.

Sits

*The IDP Guru’s Sit of the Week*

MLB DeAndre Levy – With Larry Foote possibly out for another game, Levy may once again slide into the starting MLB position. With that being said, I would typically recommend him. However, he’s facing the Bears this week who have given up the second least fantasy points to opposing linebackers the last seven weeks. Levy is a great dynasty pick but I would sit him this week.

DEFENSIVE LINEMAN

1. LDE Chris Kelsay – Kelsay has put up respectable numbers this season. But, I just don’t like the matchup against the Colts. Even with Curtis Painter under center, the Colts do an extremely good job of protecting the passer. Kelsay may have a difficult time getting to the quarterback this week.

2. RDE Greg Ellis – Ellis has managed 7 sacks this year even though he’s been hobbled by injuries for a majority of the season. He finally seems to be healthy, but the matchup this week against the Ravens is piss poor. I wouldn’t start Ellis this week.

LINEBACKERS

1. Nic Harris – Many people will be jumping on the waiver wire to pick up Harris after his 12 tackle performance last week filling in for WLB Bryan Scott. I think that given the right matchup, Harris could be a great pickup. However, the Colts are the absolute worst matchup an opposing fantasy linebacker can have. Be aware of falling into this potential trap!

2. WLB A.J. Hawk - Hawk has performed well this year from a strict football standpoint (he was just named as a NFC Pro Bowl alternate). However, his fantasy numbers have slowly been declining every year. He’s just not as productive, fantasy-wise, as he use to be. And his matchup against the Cardinals is not a good one.

DEFENSIVE BACKS

1.  SS Dawan Landry – Landry has performed fairly well this year. He’s posted 82 total tackles along with 4 INTs. However, I wouldn’t really recommend any safeties who are playing Oakland. The Raiders just don’t control the ball enough and, when they do, they have a difficult time getting into the secondary. Leave Landry on your bench this week.

2. SS Adrian “Big Name” Wilson – Remember when Adrian Wilson use to be, hands-down, the best fantasy DB in the game? Well, I do. In 2005, he had 109 total tackles, 8 sacks, 1 INT, and 9 PDs. He was a beast to say the least. However, after a defensive scheme change, Wilson’s fantasy production has been greatly reduced. He has had a slight resurgence the last 7 games and consequently many people are playing Wilson as the DB1 he used to be four years ago. Don’t be fooled by the recent production and the big name. Wilson is still a DB2 at very best and he has a horrible matchup this week against the Packers. I would be somewhat apprehensive about starting Mr. Wilson this week.

I hope you found this article to be helpful and enjoyable!

Please feel free to leave comments, questions, or derogatory remarks!

Thanks!

Ryan Sitzmann (The IDP Guru)

If you liked this article, make sure to check out my blog: The IDP Guru

For each position (DL, LB, DB), I will recommend 3 Starts and 2 Sits in addition to my “Start of the Week” and “Sit of the Week.” Also, for each position, I have listed players that I consider to be every week starters or, in other terms, “matchup independent.”

I hope everyone was successful in their respective playoff matchups last week (if you had one). For many fantasy players, this week is their championship game week (I have one this week, wish me luck). With this being said, every move, no matter how small, becomes crucial. I tried to provide a good mix of solid/safe plays and risky/high reward players for people to choose from depending on the situation they’re in (i.e. underdogs or favorites).

Also, as a side note, some of you may enjoy this video. I know I did.

This is a prime example of how Eagles fans are some of the rudest fans in sports. “City of Brotherly Love” my ass.

Anyways, here are my IDP recommendations for Week 16:

Starts

*The IDP Guru’s Start of the Week*

WLB Lance Briggs – You may be saying that this pick is worthless because Briggs is a stud and not available in any leagues. However, because of his injury in Week 12, he is shockingly only owned in 40% of ESPN leagues. He had 13 solo tackles last week and will probably reach double digits solos again this week against the Vikings, who are very generous when it comes to giving out fantasy points to opposing linebackers.

*If you looking for a sneakier play (if Briggs’ isn’t available), I also like MLB Hunter Hillenmeyer in this matchup.

DEFENSIVE LINEMAN

Every Week Starters:
Jared Allen
Julius Peppers
Elvis Dumervil
Justin Tuck
Trent Cole
Mario Williams
Robert Mathis – WATCH PLAYING STATUS
Andre Carter
Dwight Freeney – WATCH PLAYING STATUS
Will Smith
Brian Orakpo

1. RDE Randy Starks – Starks has started to cool off recently. However, he has the Texans this week who have given up the 4th most fantasy points to opposing defensive lineman the last 8 weeks. Starks should be able to put up 3-4 solos and a sack.

2. RDE Kroy Biermann – Biermann has been up and down this season but had a resurgence last week with 8 total tackles. He has a juicy matchup against the Bills this week and should be able to put up some decent numbers.

3. DE/WLB Terrell Suggs – I really like Suggs this week. Roethlisburger seems to get sacked a ton every week and this is a big division game, so I expect the Ravens to try and pressure Big Ben quite a bit. Suggs may be available in some leagues due to him being injured during the season. If he’s available, I recommend you pick him up as Suggs could be in for a monster game!

LINEBACKERS

Every Week Starters:
Patrick Willis
James Harrison
Jon Beason
Barrett Rudd
London Fletcher
D.J. Williams
Curtis Lofton
Kirk Morrison
Brian Cushing
David Harris
David Hawthorne
James Laurinaitis
Karlos Dansby – INJURED (PROBABLE)
Clint Session – WATCH PLAYING STATUS
Paul Posluszny
Jonathan Vilma

1. LILB Demorrio Williams – Williams has been one of the most underrated tacklers this season because he plays on a bad team and because he is the epitome of a non-big play performer (no sacks, INTs, fumble recoveries, or forced fumbles this year). He had 13 solo tackles last week against the Browns (who ran a ton) and I foresee him compiling another nice stat line this week against Cedric Benson and the Bengals, who will look to run the ball 30+ times against the crappy Chiefs run defense.

2. WLB Mike Peterson - Peterson is one of those linebackers that is either great or he completely sucks. It really depends on his matchup. And he has a great matchup this week in the Buffalo Bills. The Bills are starting Brian Brohm (who the hell is that?) and will therefore look to run the ball 70-75% of the time. I expect many tackle opportunities for Peterson in this game.

3. WLB James Anderson - After Anderson’s monster performance last week, I’m sure many fantasy owners have/are looking to snatch him up off the waiver wire. If he’s still there, pick him up. He has another great matchup against the Giants this week.

DEFENSIVE BACKS

Every Week Starters:
Eric Weddle
Charles Woodson
Troy Polamalu – INJURED (QUESTIONABLE)
Darren Sharper
Tyvon Branch
Antoine Bethea – WATCH PLAYING STATUS
Yeremiah Bell
Oshiomogho Atogwe – INJURED (PLACED ON IR 12/9)
Dashon Goldson
Bernard Pollard
Bryan Scott – INJURED (OUT)
Brian Dawkins

1. SS Tanard Jackson – Jackson is what a like to call a “fringe” IDP player. He’s in the upper echelon of largely available waiver wire players but not quite good enough to be an every week fantasy starter. However, this week he has a great matchup against the New Orleans Saints, so make sure and get him in your lineups. I like Jackson for 8-10 total tackles this week.

2. SS Mike Brown – I am usually hesitant about recommending “Michelle” Brown because a) he gets injured way too much and b) he’s incredibly inconsistent at times. However, it’s getting late in the year and he has a fantastic matchup against the Bengals this week. I’m looking for Brown to put up Mike Brown numbers this week and not Michelle Brown numbers.

3. SS Nedu Ndukwe – That name never gets old! Ndukwe has always been a fantasy favorite of mine due to his consistent tackling production. He’s had two monster tackling weeks in a row and he gets the Chiefs this week. I look for the Chiefs to pound the ball with speed-burner Jamaal Charles a lot this week. Consequently, Ndukwe will probably be asked to play close to the line of scrimmage to stop the run. I like his chances for a great week.

Sits

*The IDP Guru’s Sit of the Week*

MLB Larry Foote – Foote is usually one of the more consistent tackling linebackers in the league. However, he faces the 49ers this week who give up the 3rd least amount of points to opposing linebackers. Don’t expect much out of Larry this week.

DEFENSIVE LINEMAN

1. RDE Shaun Ellis – Ellis is one of those players who only puts up big fantasy points against crappy offensive lines. Well, he plays the Colts offensive line this week and they’re anything but crappy. Have Ellis on your bench this week.

2. RDT  Albert Haynesworth – Some may be tempted to pickup Haynesworth after his big game on Monday Night Football (6-0-1), but I would advise against it. Not only has Haynesworth been riddled with injuries this year, but he faces the Cowboys who are very stingy when it comes to giving up fantasy points to opposing defensive tackles.

LINEBACKERS

1. WLB Andra Davis – Davis has really struggled the last 4 weeks after a hot start to the season. And things won’t get any easier for him this week against the stingy Eagles. Stay away from Davis!

2. SLB Chad Greenway - Many think that due to the injury to MLB E.J. Henderson, Greenway’s numbers are going to increase. I don’t buy into that theory. I think Greenway’s numbers will remain relatively stable and Henderson’s replacement, Jasper Brinkley, will have a large increase in fantasy production. Minnesota plays the Bears this week, and even though it’s a division game, I don’t see the Vikings defense on the field very much (if you know what I mean). This means less tackle opportunities for Greenway. Ultimately, he’s an alright play this week, but I would explore other LB options if possible. 

DEFENSIVE BACKS

1.  SS Erik Coleman – At one point during the middle of the season, I though Coleman was a good enough fantasy player to be considered “matchup independent.” However, over the last 3-4 weeks Coleman has begun to slow down and is therefore no longer an every week starter. He has a horrible matchup this week against the Bills.  Stay away from Coleman this week.

2. SS Brandon Meriweather – I personally think Meriweather is overrated and is owned in way too many ESPN leagues (52%). He’s not a particularly strong tackler, although he does have 4 INTs for the year. He has a bad matchup this week against the Jaguars, so I would avoid using him if possible.

I hope you found this article to be helpful and enjoyable!

Please feel free to leave comments, questions, or derogatory remarks!

Thanks!

Ryan Sitzmann (The IDP Guru)

If you liked this article, make sure to check out our other great Week 16 articles.

For each position (DL, LB, DB), I will recommend 3 Starts and 2 Sits in addition to my “Start of the Week” and “Sit of the Week.” Also, for each position, I have listed players that I consider to be every week starters or, in other terms, “matchup independent.”

I hope everyone was successful in their respective playoff matchups last week (if you had one). My philosophy, at this point in the season, is to start defensive players based primarily on their matchups. There’s no use in holding on to “big name” players any longer in hopes of them panning out. It’s guys like Reed Doughty and James Anderson that are going to win you the ‘ship, not DeMeco Ryans or Osi Umenyiora.

Enough preaching, here are my IDP recommendations for Week 15:

Starts

*The IDP Guru’s Start of the Week*

WLB Keith Bulluck – I actually like both WLB Keith Bullock and MLB Stephen Tulloch this week against Miami. I chose Bullock as my start of the week over Tulloch because he stays in for nickel packages whereas Tulloch does not. Therefore, if Miami starts throwing, Bullock will obviously have more tackle opportunities than Tulloch. Look for Bullock to have 9-11 total tackles this week.

DEFENSIVE LINEMAN

Every Week Starters:
Jared Allen
Julius Peppers
Elvis Dumervil
Justin Tuck
Trent Cole
Mario Williams
Robert Mathis
Andre Carter
Dwight Freeney
Will Smith
Brian Orakpo

1. DE/WLB Terrell Suggs – Suggs had missed the last 3 weeks with an injury but he returned last week against the Lions and had 4 solo tackles. Suggs is a great value because of the high tackling capability he brings from his hybrid DE/WLB spot. Chicago gets sacked a decent amount as well. Sounds like a good combination to me.

2. LDE John Abraham – I know, I know. Abraham sucks this year. I agree completely. I drafted him for God’s sake! But, he has a matchup this week against the Jets which is just too good to pass up. The Jets give up the most fantasy points to opposing defensive lineman and Abraham has a little extra incentive to do well playing against his old team. And hell, he hasn’t had a full sack since Week 5, he’s due. Isn’t he?

3. RDE Aaron Schobel – I’ve recommended Schobel a few times in my weekly waiver wire articles this year and for good reason. He plays in a division that has teams who get sacked a lot! This week the Bills play the New England Patriots, who are actually in the Top 5 for fantasy points given up to opposing defensive lineman.

LINEBACKERS

Every Week Starters:
Patrick Willis
James Harrison
Jon Beason
Barrett Rudd
London Fletcher
D.J. Williams
Curtis Lofton
Kirk Morrison
Brian Cushing
David Harris
David Hawthorne
James Laurinaitis
Karlos Dansby – INJURED (PROBABLE)
Clint Session
Paul Posluszny

1. LOLB LaMarr Woodley - I recommended Woodley in my blog as a waiver wire pickup last week and he came up big with 6 solo tackles and a sack. He has a superb matchup against the Packers this week, so expect a similar stat line.

2. WLB Michael Boley - Boley really impressed me last week by going 10-1-0 against the Eagles, who are one of the stingiest teams in the NFL when it comes to giving up fantasy points to opposing linebackers. He’s got a great matchup against the ‘Skins this week. Look for Boley to have a very solid game.

3. WLB James Anderson – If you’re in need of a one-week filler, Anderson may be your guy. He’s been thrown into the WLB position because of the season-ending injury to Thomas Davis a few weeks ago. To a certain extent, it’s Carolina’s Cover 2 defensive scheme that makes the WLB position valuable, not the actual player. With this being said, Anderson has the Vikings this week who  are a fantasy linebackers dream come true. He should be able to produce at least 7-9 total tackles this week.

DEFENSIVE BACKS

Every Week Starters:
Eric Weddle - INJURED (QUESTIONABLE)
Charles Woodson
Troy Polamalu - INJURED (OUT)
Darren Sharper
Tyvon Branch
Antoine Bethea
Yeremiah Bell
Oshiomogho Atogwe - INJURED (PLACED ON IR 12/9)
Dashon Goldson
Bernard Pollard
Bryan Scott

1. SS Reed Doughty – Doughty has been one of the more consistent tackling strong safeties in the league. He has a great matchup this week against the New York “Football” Giants. Get him in your lineup!

2. SS Erik Coleman – Coleman has cooled off the last three weeks after a hot start to the season. However, I think he will bounce back this week against the Jets who will look to run the ball a lot. Seriously, what else are the Jets going to do except hand the ball to Thomas Jones? Let Mark Sanchez (or possibly Kellen Clemens) throw? I think not.

3. LCB William James – James is coming off a nine tackle week against the Ravens last week and this week he has the best matchup an opposing fantasy CB can have: The Arizona Cardinals. He should be good for 7 or 8 solo tackles.

Sits

*The IDP Guru’s Sit of the Week*

WLB Daryl Smith – Smith is on pace for about 100 total tackles this season. Not bad. However, he is the 2nd best fantasy linebacker in Jacksonville behind Justin Durant and he has to face the Colts this week who are extremely stingy when it comes to giving out fantasy points to opposing linebackers. Don’t even think about Smith this week. Look somewhere else. 

DEFENSIVE LINEMAN

1. RDE Stylez White – “The Artist formerly known as Greg” had a nice game last week against the Jets. But, I could probably manage a sack (or two) against the Jets, so that isn’t saying a whole lot. White gets the Seahawks this week who have allowed the 2nd fewest points to defensive lineman over the last 8 weeks. I would shy away from White this week.

2. RDE Will Smith – For as inconsistent as the Cowboys offense has been this year, the offensive line has managed to protect Romo fairly well. Add to that the fact that Romo is an elusive QB to begin with and you have a recipe that opposing defensive lineman don’t like tasting. I don’t see Smith being successful in his “Pursuit of Happiness” (bad pun, I know).

LINEBACKERS

1. WLB Will Witherspoon – Since be traded to the Eagles in Week 7, “Spoon” has been a fairly solid fantasy producer. His value took a slight hit when the Eagles decided to move him from MLB to WLB a few ago though. And he has bad matchup this week against the 49ers and their west-coast offense. Don’t expect more than 4-6 total tackles this week.

2. MLB Dhani Jones – It was just last week that I recommended you start Mr. Jones and he came through with 10 total tackles. However, he just isn’t good enough to overcome bad matchups like the one he has against the Chargers this week. Look somewhere else for a linebacker this week. 

DEFENSIVE BACKS

1.  SS Brian Dawkins – Dawkins is coming off a huge game last week (7-3-0, 2 INTS). However, the Raiders are just not good enough to 1) control the ball for an extended period of time, and 2) get to the 2nd level of the opposing team’s defense which is bad news for a secondary player like Dawkins. The last time Dawkins played the Raiders he only had 3 total tackles. Not good.

2. SS Nedu Ndukwe – Gotta love that name! Ndukwe has filled in well for Roy “Horse Collar” Williams, but he’s probably going to hit a brick wall this week against the Eagles. The Eagles are pretty stingy when it comes to giving up points to opposing DBs.

I hope you found this article to be helpful and enjoyable!

Please feel free to leave comments, questions, or derogatory remarks!

Thanks!

Ryan Sitzmann (The IDP Guru)

If you liked this article, make sure to check out our other great Week 15 articles:

• QB Rankings (Start/Sit)
• RB Rankings
  
• WR Rankings (Start/Sit)
• Waiver Wire Sleepers