For many of you out there that are not familiar with NEXFL, the NEXFL is the National Experts Fantasy League. It is a 32-team league that includes Offense and Individual Defensive Players (IDP) and only has one “copy” of a player. There are a few other 32-team leagues out there, but many have two “copies” of a player (i.e. two teams can own Adrian Peterson, etc.). That is not the case in NEXFL. This is not a league for the unseasoned or casual fantasy fan. The draft is 23 rounds and amounts to over 730 picks that are selected through an online draft over the span of approximately a month. The purpose of NEXFL is to establish a league that is unlike any other. The concept was originally developed by Ryan “The Warden” Houston and later enhanced by George “SpiGuy” Kerwood and now Tom “Tomdiggs” Digliani in the hopes of providing fantasy football enthusiasts with a much more difficult and challenging task: Represent an NFL team and create the ultimate Fantasy Football team with precious resources. Do you have what it takes to compete?

To take a look at the teams and rosters for this season, check out the league site:

http://www14.myfantasyleague.com/2011/home/44638

Now, here is my personal analysis of this year’s teams and projections. These are my opinions and mine alone as the commissioner and avid NEXFL enthusiast.

For those that want to take part next year, start studying up on your IDP and deep sleepers. Then follow the league from afar throughout the league and let me know your interest so I can place you on a waiting list for the 2012 season. The league usually has 6-8 vacancies that open up per year.

Without further ado, here’s the league as I see it through my crystal ball.

AFC East
1. Bills – The reigning AFC Champs return with another solid squad. Vlad looks to be forming the basis for being an annual contender now after breaking through to the playoffs for the first time last season. While Alex Smith will hurt him in a division filled with exceptional QBs, the Bills’ depth and strength at WR and LB will carry them. If Dez Bryant does not pan out or if Austin Collie gets hurt then they could be in trouble. I expect big things from both, however. D’Qwell Jackson and Jonathan Vilma will carry the D and will be helped a lot by Trent Cole and Morgan Burnett. The real player to watch for the Bills is Lance Kendricks. If he stands out during the year like he has this preseason then this team could be dangerous. If one of many risks goes awry they could fall out of the playoff picture. I want to predict a better record, but with all the risks and with Alex Smith I need to temper expectations. Prediction: 8-5

2. Dolphins – Jerm has once again put together a tough squad. Joe Flacco, Mike Thomas, and Wes Welker will help carry the offense. The D has some good players in Robert Mathis, Jon Beason and Kevin Burnett. Beason’s early season injury is one to watch. If he misses time it could doom the Dolphins’ chances out of the gate in the early divisional games. I see them being slightly off of the Bills in running for the division crown. Prediction: 7-6

3. Patriots – The Pats may have a new NEXFL owner this year, but they drafted well. Michael Vick will be the first piece that will help carry this offense. However, there is some serious offensive talent here in addition to Vick with Rashard Mendenhall, Pierre Garcon and Greg Olsen. Olsen could be a gem in this league. The defense has some nice balance with AJ Hawk, Daryl Smith and Devin McCourty leading the way. Depth is an issue. There isn’t much at DL and Paris Lenon and Keith Brooking may not be starting for their NFL teams for very long. A good, but not great rookie year for the Pats. Prediction: 5-8

4. Jets – Just like the NFL Colts; this team’s status relies on Peyton Manning’s health. Manning will run this offense with Michael Turner, but a lack of talent at WR and LB could possibly hurt this team. James Jones and Plaxico Burress need to step up to help this team. Jason Witten should remain a stud. The DBs may all be cornerbacks, but having Charles Tillman, Richard Marshall and DeAngelo Hall will help offset the lack of talent at LB. Clay Matthews and Tamba Hali really need big years to help this D out. Prediction: 4-9

Summary: This division went from being one of the deepest last year to being a little thin this year in my opinion. I only see one team coming out of this division into the playoffs. Currently everyone is chasing the Bills in my opinion.

AFC North
1. Browns – Wow what a difference a year makes. Dave went from a 5-8 owner last year to maybe assembling the best team in the NEXFL this year! Colt McCoy, Maurice Jones-Drew, DeSean Jackson, Steve Smith (Car), Braylon Edwards and Fred Davis make for a damn scary offense. The defense has some great LBs for a 32-team league in Nick Barnett, Stewart Bradley and Rocky McIntosh. Even the DBs have potential with Glover Quinn and William Moore leading the way. The only real weakness on this team is along the D-Line. There is not much there. Not a bad spot to be weak. I am not looking to facing them in week 8. Prediction: 10-3

2. Ravens – Yergs is in the running every single year and this is why. He just builds a ridiculously balanced team. Shonne Greene, Andre Johnson, Julio Jones and Brandon Pettigrew will make for a great base for the offense. His defense could be scary. Carlos Dunlap and Justin Tuck make for a great pairing at DL and they are filled in the starting lineup with Geno Hayes, Clint Session and Brandon Spikes. As long as the LBs can stay healthy (no small task with Spikes and Session already missing time), then this team will be in playoff contention. Prediction: 8-5

3. Bengals – Mike may be a new owner here, but his team turned out pretty well for his first NEXFL draft. Kevin Kolb will form a lethal one-two punch with Ray Rice on offense. If Dallas Clark stays healthy, he could be the best offensive player on the team. The WRs will decide how good this team can be. Nate Burleson, Michael Jenkins and Andre Roberts will all be NFL starters, but may not offer much punch in the box score. If they step up on offense, there is definitely enough on defense (Gary Brackett, Donald Butler, Cliff Avril, Patrick Peterson, and Antrel Rolle) to help buoy this team to the edge of playoff contention. Might be a bit tough in this division, however. Prediction: 6-7

4. Steelers – George is a seasoned vet of this league. I seemingly never like his teams and half the time I am right and half the time I am dead wrong. This year I am not high again. I love Matt Schaub and Matt Forte leading the offense and I like Todd Heap with how much Kevin Kolb has historically used the TE. The WRs are suspect though. If Steve Smith (Phi) and Eddie Royal can become decent fantasy contributors, then this team will prove me wrong. If they don’t the offense could be hurting a bit. Paul Posluszny and DeMeco Ryans will help carry the defense along with Dawan Landry. However, a lack of a third starting LB could hurt the overall production. Prediction: 3-10

Summary: This division might be close and is very good at the top. I do not like the fact that my AFC South division crosses over with this division this season. I definitely see two playoff teams coming out of this division. The Browns are the team to beat here and maybe in the AFC and entire NEXFL.

AFC South
1. Colts – Just as I said last year, some people do not rate their own teams. I say that is a cop-out! I have no problem addressing the likes and dislikes of my own team. I love my starting WRs, TEs and LBs. Last year I was 10-0 with Matt Hasselbeck as my QB. This was with him having less explosive options, less of an O-Line and less of a running game in Seattle then he will have in Tennessee this year. I think he could finish around the 20th rated QB and that should be just enough to help out. RB is a problem spot yet again. I lost my best one (Ryan Williams) for the year and will now have to rely on Reggie Bush yet again. Not good in a non-ppr RB league. Greg Jennings, Kenny Britt, Michael Crabtree, Jared Cook and Rob Gronkowski should help cover me though. I may have picked the wrong NE tight end, but if so that is my biggest regret on offense. My DL was terrible last year so I tried to fix that this year. I love having Julius Peppers and Matt Roth to start the year while Derrick Morgan gets healthy. The DBs are not stellar, but they do consist of a few high tackle CBs. I clearly need Tanard Jackson to get reinstated or I am in trouble here. The LBs lack depth but are big at the top. Despite losing Travis Goethel to a season ending injury already (yes, another), I still have David Hawthorne, Daryl Washington and NaVorro Bowman. That is likely three-100 tackle LBs and two with the chance to be 120 tackle guys. I like my team but have a brutal schedule and will not touch last year’s 10-3 record. Prediction: 9-4

2. Jaguars – I am getting sick of the Jags putting together good drafts. They are clearly putting pressure on this division. I cringe at facing this offense. Matthew Stafford, Michael Bush/Daniel Thomas, Miles Austin, Danny Amendola, Jermichael Finley…are you kidding? Even the extras like Harry Douglas are serviceable. The only hope is that the LBs do not perform. Having four starting NFL LBs is a luxury in this league and the Jags have them. None are exceptional, but Sean Lee, Chris Gocong, Michael Boley and Moise Fokou are good enough to keep the D afloat. Their O is probably better than the Colts, but the D might be a tiny bit behind. Close call. Prediction: 8-5

3. Titans – This team has the potential to steal the division away from the Colts of the Jaguars. Brandon Marshall and Percy Harvin are a hell of a one-two punch in a WR ppr league. If Aaron Hernandez keeps up this tear he is on, this offense is going to kill. LeGarrette Blount will be a great non-ppr RB too. The Jacksonville QB is a bit scary. They will be a good point producer while David Garrard is in there. Once Blaine Gabbart gets in, however, the QB spot could become an issue for them. You may not get much better than Patrick Willis and Brian Cushing as a 1-2 punch. Ndamukong Suh is going to be huge too. The D does not have much beyond them, however. They could surprise, but seem a tiny bit behind the other two teams in their division above them. Prediction: 6-7

4. Texans – This team might lack some punch on offense but will be held up by a strong defense. The D is led by the aging but exceptional duo of Ray Lewis and London fletcher. If they both continue to defy father time, this LB group will be brutal to face. Quinten Mikell, Earl Thomas and Major Wright will be great DBs too. While Drew Brees and Peyton Hillis are scary, the receiving options are a bit limited. Jacoby Ford, Mohammed Massaquoi, and Denarius Moore need to step up for them to compete weekly. Brent Celek will help too. I see this team being great if their WRs pan out. If not they will not be. I don’t have much faith in the WRs so I have them lower. They could surprise if I am wrong. Prediction: 4-9

Summary: I see this division as being considerably stronger than it was last year. The Colts and Jags will likely fight at the top if they remain healthy all year. This division could easily produce two playoff teams and do not be surprised if the Titans surprise the Colts or Jags and steal the division.

AFC West
1. Broncos – Many people might be sleeping on Kevin after last year. I will not. Kevin has been the historical competitor I compare myself to every year since I have been in this league starting in 2006. Kevin won the AFC West from 2006-2009 every year. He averaged 9 wins a year in those years and almost 166 points per game. Last year he finished with the worst record in the league somehow. Well guess what folks, he’s back! Mark Sanchez will not set the world on fire, but he will be a solid and stable NEXFL QB. Joseph Addai, Larry Fitzgerald, Robert Meachem and Lance Moore will fill out a very nice NEXFL offense. The D is even crazier. Curtis Lofton, DJ Williams, Chris Harris, Bernard Pollard, Aaron Kampman and Matt Shaughnessy give this team exceptional balance. The key for them is the early season injury to DJ Williams. If his loss costs them some key division games then there will be room to make up. Prediction: 9-4

2. Chargers – Tim has quickly become a force to be reckoned with in this league. This is his third division in as many years, but he keeps putting together exceptional teams. Dwayne Bowe and Brandon Lloyd are a great set of NEXFL WRs. Kyle Orton and Jahvid Best round out the offensive talent. I am a bit concerned with this team relying so much on Denver’s passing offense under John Fox. Orton, Lloyd and Julius Thomas are three starters that could struggle in Denver’s passing offense sputters or is underutilized. Defensively they are scary. Desmond Bishop, Mason Foster and Joe Mays form maybe the best starting LB group in NEXFL. How long Mays hangs on to the starting job is key. There is not much at DL, but the DBs are loaded with undervalued talent in Melvin Bullitt, Chris Hope and Jim Leonhard. I can see them fighting with the Broncos all year long trying to win this division. Prediction: 9-4

3. Raiders – Another year and another good Raiders team. Matt Ryan is in for a huge year and the duo of Ryan Grant and Beanie Wells will give two great RBs and a nice potential trade chip as well. The WRs and TEs are a bit lacking but have a little pop. Can Jerome Simpson and Mike Williams perform despite Andy Dalton and Tarvaris Jackson QBing their teams? If not the Raiders will struggle a bit. Rolando McClain, Tyvon Branch and Eric Berry will be great for the defense. The rest is filled with NFL starters that will be good role players but not likely to be NEXFL stars. Slow and steady wins the race, but this is a tough division. Prediction: 6-7

4. Chiefs – Boy do the NEXFL Chiefs have a lot of NFL Chiefs! If the NFL Chiefs are as good as last year then great! If not then it is not so great. I expect the NFL Chiefs to slip and thus I am a bit low on the NEXFL Chiefs. Matt Cassel could be in for a rude awakening with Charlie Weis and that NE passing offense. He was great in NE under it and great with Charlie Weis running the show. Weis is gone now though. Jamaal Charles will be a beast, but the receiving options need to get healthy to have a chance. Chris Cooley is hurt. Emmanuel Sanders has been hurt. Antonio Gates is ridiculously good when he plays, but he needs to remain healthy. Steve Breaston has been hurt. There is a lot of uncertainty with the receiving options here. If any falter then the Chiefs are hurt. If they all stay healthy and come through then my prediction is way too low. Terrell Suggs and John Abraham are an awesome starting DL pair and Michael Griffin is a great DB starter. Depth beyond them is limited. James Harrison and Ernie Sims have been hurt this preseason and if Sims doesn’t start to begin the year, then this team has Harrison and Anthony Spencer and a bunch of reserve NFL LBs. It could get ugly if that happens. Prediction: 3-10

Summary: I see two likely playoff teams her and the Raiders might make a little noise and prove me wrong and make it a 3-way race. The Chiefs have a ton of potential, but they need to get healthy and stay that way to have a chance in such a tough division.

AFC- 105-103

NFC East
1. Redskins – Chris is one of the league’s wily veterans and he has built another nice squad this year. This team has few weaknesses. It is solid at QB with Jay Cutler and is built heavily around some solid WRs and LBs. Reggie Wayne and Santonio Holmes will carry this offense and if Ryan Mathews steps up the offense could be deadly. When the team gets completely healthy and has Thomas Davis, Lance Briggs and Keith Rivers, look out. I would predict an even better record except this division will beat up on each other a good amount. Prediction: 8-5

2. Cowboys – I am happy to see Andrew gone from the AFC South and he will continue to compete annually in the NFC East now. Andrew’s team is built around stable commodities like Eli Manning and DeAngelo Williams and while his WRs are a bit thin, he has Calvin Johnson and two great TEs to start in Kellen Winslow and Vernon Davis. His LB depth is exceptional too with DeAndre Levy, Jonathan Goff and Kavell Conner to start the year. By the time Conner could get passed by Ernie Sims, he might have Nate Irving starting. Plus he has Mathias Kiwanuka for insurance. He will be fighting for the division title all year. Prediction: 8-5

3. Eagles – Jack’s team here might be just as good as or better than the two I have ranked above him. He has great talent to win on offense with LeSean McCoy, Mike Wallace, Mike Williams and Kevin Boss, but his defense is where he makes up ground. He has two great D-Linemen in Charles Johnson and Jason Babin and early in the year he will have four starting LBs in Karlos Dansby, Casey Matthews, Thomas Howard and Wesley Woodyard. He has a few weeks to sort things out before DJ Williams and Keith Rivers return. Their imminent returns and his bad QB situation are the only reason I list the Eagles behind the Skins and Cowboys here. Prediction: 7-6

4. Giants – Doug is another owner that always seems to prove me wrong. I normally expect his teams to struggle only to find them near the tops of the leader board in the NFC in points scored every year. Hopefully he proves me wrong again this year. Doug has a lot riding on the Giants as always and he needs Travis Beckum to step up for him. I love Hakeem Nicks and I like AJ Green’s talent, but if Green struggles due to poor WB play then the receivers here could be hurting. The LBs are also pretty rough with only Cameron Wake and Andra Davis to write home about. Doug does make up for it with arguably the best DBs in NEXFL with Yeremiah Bell, Roman Harper and Louis Delmas. I could see him being great if AJ Green and Ryan Fitzpatrick play out. I am not 100% sold on that, however. Prediction: 5-8

Summary: I see two likely playoff teams here. These teams are going to beat up on each other all year. The division is really strong top-to-bottom. The division is seemingly always tough and this year will be no different.

NFC North
1. Lions – I had to pick next to Chris last year and it was no picnic. He has a knack for putting together some great teams. I see him being the class of the NFC North this year again. Sidney Rice’s bust potential scares me a bit, but there is enough talent on offense to make up for that with Jason Campbell, Tim Hightower, Vincent Jackson, and Early Doucet there to help. The TE situation is not pretty, lacking a starter on the roster. Luckily the defense is there to save the day. Barrett Ruud, Rey Maualuga and Pat Angerer will team with Jason Pierre-Paul to lead the D. They have a look of a division winner and high ranking playoff team. Prediction: 8-5

2. Vikings – The Vikings are another NEXFL team that often has a lot of their home team’s players. This year is no exception. The difference is the value this year. Chad Ochocinco, Anquan Boldin and Bernard Berrian will help the offense. As long as Donovan McNabb stays healthy, the offense will be ok. If he falters and Christian Ponder enters then this team is hurting as Berrian and Visanthe Shiancoe’s values would falter as well. The DBs and DLs on this team are nothing special, but the LBs are very nice, with David Harris, James Farrior and surprise preseason star Erin Henderson leading the way. If Kirk Morrison ends up starting in Buffalo at any point then this gets even better. All in all not a bad squad. Prediction: 7-6

3. Packers – I want to pick this team to basically win the division. They have a lot going for them. Aaron Rodgers is a stud and will carry them. Fred Jackson provides sneaky value at RB and Mario Manningham is set up to star this year. The problem I have is the lack of other weapons in the receiving game and the lack of oomph at LB. If Derrick Johnson and DeMarcus Ware can hold down the fort, then the Safeties with TJ Ward, Kerry Rhodes and Nick Collins can hopefully make up some ground. If there was a little bit more in the WR/TE department I could see them as a playoff team with a shot at the division. Prediction: 5-8

4. Bears – This is another team that is not barren and I hate predicting to finish this poorly. A team with Tom Brady, Cedric Benson, Mark Ingram, Brian Urlacher and Takeo Spikes is too good of a base to struggle mightily. However, there are just way too many question marks at WR and TE to stomach. When your top WRs and TEs are players that might not even start for their NFL teams (Roy Williams, Derrick Mason, Ben Obamanu, Tony Scheffler) then you know it could be a long year. Prediction: 5-8

Summary: This was a tough division for me to gauge. I don’t see the Packers or Bears being all that bad. They could flip-flop with the Vikings and all could be solid and competing to the bitter end just like last year. I just see the Lions above them for sure, that’s all. I only see one team making it out of this division into the playoffs this year. Maybe they will prove me wrong like they did last year.

NFC South
1. Buccaneers – I really like what Ty has done with his team. He is stocked strongly at QB (Philip Rivers), RB (Knowshon Moreno and CJ Spiller) and at WR (Marques Colston, Malcolm Floyd). He has Tony Gonzalez at TE but no depth behind him. He also needs one of his 3 other WRs to step up and form a decent WR3. On defense I love Elvis Dumervil and he has EJ Henderson and Von Miller to help out as well. If the Denver D struggles to pressure the QB then his team will struggle on D. They have looked good so far, so it is so-far-so-good. Prediction: 8-5

2. Panthers – Something tells me I am significantly under-rating the returning Champs. Ben Roethlisberger and Arian Foster are beats and will carry the offense. My concern is the receiving options again. This team needs both TEs to excel. Owen Daniels and Zach Miller need to be great for them to have a great offense. I don’t see much at WR to help carry the load. The defense here is what has me all types of uncertain. The DBs are top notch. George Wilson, Eric Weddle and Brent Grimes are awesome. The DL has Justin Smith and not much else. The tough part are the LBs. I do not believe in James Anderson as much as others do. The numbers speak for themselves, but I just don’t believe it. If Jamar Chaney goes back to the middle, this team could shoot up the division. If not, they have some work to do. Prediction: 6-7

3. Falcons – Welcome back Tim! Tim won the title in 2009 and then was out of the league last year. Here he is back again. I am not so sure I love the team, though. The Redskins QB will likely provide some ups and downs. Chris Johnson will be really good, and Marshawn Lynch provides some nice depth. However, if Steve Johnson struggles this team is in trouble. Johnson and Mike Sims-Walker are being relied on to carry a weak group of WRs and TEs. Defensively the DBs are great but the LBs and DL have potential and very little proven talent. I just can’t see a return to the playoffs unless everything goes right. In NEXFL it rarely does. Prediction: 5-8

4. Saints – To put it simply, I love the defense on Mike’s team and I hate the offense. The offense does not have much beyond Adrian Peterson. Cam Newton will struggle early on, none of the WRs are starters for their NFL team, and some are not even the third option for their teams. There are two very good TEs in Jimmy Graham and Dustin Keller, but both those teams have many NFL receiving options and they will be up and down week to week. It is hard to count out a team with guys like Osi Umenyiora, Chad Greenway, Stephen Tulloch, LaRon Landry and Adrian Wilson on it. I feel the need to though. With Umenyiora, Wilson and Landry dinged up, this team strength could be derailed really quickly. Prediction: 4-9

Summary: This was exceptionally hard for me. For some reason, I just simply do not like the teams in this division this year and the way they are built. I am also not an idiot and know that this division has represented the NFC in the championship three years in a row and has won the last two NEXFL Championships. These guys know what they are doing. They are likely to prove me very, very wrong. But as of now I can’t see more than one team coming out of here and I really don’t see much certainty beyond the Bucs.

NFC West
1. Rams – Dave jumped over to the NFC this year and then went on to build a great team. Sam Bradford was a nice snag when the QBs began flying off the board and Felix Jones should be good this year. He even grabbed DeMarco Murray as a handcuff, which could be big if he beats out Tashard Choice. The receiving options on this team and the LBs are great. Not only that, but they are deep. Jeremy Maclin, Lee Evans, Donald Driver, and Danario Alexander could all be starters for their NFL teams. Even Demaryius Thomas has late season upside. Ben Watson is a solid contributor and the LBs are built around James Laurinaitis, Sean Weatherspoon and Aldon Smith. Smith has looked good in his transition this preseason and the Rams can even ride Dan Conner early in the year if Jon Beason misses time. This team is primed for a run. Prediction: 9-4

2. Cardinals – For a newcomer to NEXFL, James has built a nice team. It would be even nicer if he had not lost his 23rd rounder due to his not being up to date yet on his league payment. As soon as he rectifies that and adds some depth he will be even more of a force to be reckoned with. What’s not to like about a team built around Josh Freeman, Darren McFadden, Roddy White, and solid defenders like Will Witherspoon and Bradie James. This team has the makings of one that can make some noise. Prediction: 8-5

3. 49ers – Todd’s team perplexes me. I can see them being 8-5 or 5-8. The core is solid. Jerod Mayo and Lawrence Timmons will be a nightmare to face. The question is on offense. Can Jordan Shipley be decent with Andy Dalton? Can Johnny Knox nab his starting spot back? Can Marcedes Lewis repeat last year? Can Steven Jackson stay healthy? Can the Miami QB produce? Too many questions for me to go high. But this team could easily reverse my predicted record. Prediction: 5-8

4. Seahawks – James is probably going to hate me for this. If I am not mistaken, I predicted him to be 6-7 last year and he was. Hopefully I am wrong this year. Tony Romo, Frank Gore, Santana Moss and Davone Bess will lead the offense. The season-ending injury to Tony Moeaki hurts a lot. There is not much depth on the Seahawks behind him and not much on the waiver wire. The DBs here are great but the LBs are not much to write about beyond Bart Scott….which isn’t saying much. I hope I am wrong but I see a finish similar to last year. Prediction: 5-8

Summary: This division went from last year’s joke to a strong one this year. I can easily see two teams coming into the playoffs out of here. The Rams look like they may even be the class of the NFC at this early juncture. All in all it could get wild in the NEXFL NFC West this year.

NFC- 103-105

Downtown Crusher Brown, D'Qwell Jackson is back!

Welcome to the third and final installment of our IDP over and under articles. If you play in leagues that use Individual Defensive Players (IDP) then you probably already know that unlike the more mercurial defensive linemen or defensive back positions, the Linebacker position is the most straight up to draft for. Players offer more consistency year to year. There is greater depth, and really only one scoring consideration: solo tackles.

A handful of Linebackers do put up double digit sacks like their DL counterparts, and their names are good to know; James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley in Pittsburgh, Clay Matthews in Green Bay, Demarcus Ware in Dallas, Elvis Dumervil in Denver and Brian Orakpo in Washington. Of these six guys, only the two Steelers eclipsed 50 solo tackles, and while I’m not suggesting you discount these potential fantasy studs, keep in mind none of them broke into the top 10 at their position, and only three made it into the top 20.

So as my mantra has become, look for the guys with the high solo tackle numbers and opportunities. Save the “sack” guys for your DL position unless you find a real value where he is taken in your draft.

When you get to the IDP point in your draft the difference between a player’s ADP is usually around one full round. So the 28th linebacker off the board is going a full two rounds after the 26th. So do the math on just what a 5-10 ADP difference can mean. So relative to all other fantasy positions none has a greater need for finding value.

–Undervalued–

D’Qwell Jackson, CLE - It’s hard to image a tackle beast like D’Qwell being undervalued, but it seems last year’s injury has put him in an almost sleeper like draft state. FFToolobox.com and Fantasy Knucklehead’s both have him ranked at #7. IDPGuru.com has him at #5. Yet his ADP is 15th–a difference of 50 picks, or 5 rounds.

Michael Boley, NYG – Boley is a guy who can get you 90+ solo tackles with a 2-3 sacks thrown in. He was on his way to a 100 tackle season in 2009 before he got hurt. I currently have him ranked at 29th, and his ADP is 41st.

Justin Durant, JAX - J.D. lost some of his value when the Jags brought in Kirk Morrison, but he put up 81 solo tackles in 13 games last season, meaning a full 16 games could bring him to the century mark. His team will spend a lot of time on defense, so the opportunity is there for a big year. I have him ranked at 34 and his ADP is 45.

Demorrio Williams, KC - Williams ranked 33rd in LB fantasy points in 2009, but he was 9th overall in solo tackles with 95. If he can repeat those numbers, or come close–perhaps add a sack or two, you’ve got a very undervalued pick at ADP 52

Chad Greenway, MIN – Greenway is one of those quiet producers who puts up 80+ solo tackles each season. In his first three seasons he’s placed 21st, 13th and 29th in fantasy production, yet he goes into season four, with an ADP of 40. That’s not just undervalued– that’s sleeper territory.

–Overvalued–

Demarcus Ware, DAL - As mentioned above, Ware was one of only six linebackers to break into double digit sacks, but he still failed to break into the top 25 at his position. This is due to his sub-50 solo tackle numbers. Ware is always a threat to put up double digit sacks, but not 100 solo tackles.  His ADP is a current 17th. That’s just not good value.

Dumervil

Elvis Dumervil, DEN – Dumervil transitioned from defensive end to linebacker and exploded to lead the league with 17 sacks. While there is decent reason to believe Elvis can hit double digit sacks again, it’s rather probable that it won’t be 17, and a dozen seems like the ceiling.  So if you figure in his low tackles numbers (less than 40) with a dozen sacks, you get his 2007 numbers which were good for 42nd place overall. His current ADP is 30th.

Brian Orakpo, WAS – Orakpo’s rookie season ended with 11 sacks, and a 54th place fantasy ranking. Heading into 2010 he’s likely to replicate those numbers, and with a defensive scheme change to the 3-4, he could see an extra sacks or two. However, his tackles totals will really have to bump to get him close enough in scoring to match his ADP of 37.

Brian Cushing, HOU – Cushing is a brutish fantasy stud, and should destroy defenses for years to come. He’s a top 10 LB pick for me in Dynasty/Keeper leagues, but in 2010 redraft leagues an ADP as the 5th linebacker taken overall is big time crazy. he’ll miss a quarter of the season to suspension, and it will take him another few games to get into a groove. I’ve dropped his ranking to 12th, and that may still be too optimistic.

David Hawthorne, SEA - Talk about a fantasy revelation. Hawthorne stepped in for an injured Lofa Tatupa last season and destroyed other fantasy teams putting up 93 solos, 3 sacks and 3 interceptions for savvy fantasy owners. Tatupa is back this season, and Hawthorne moves to WLB (a less productive position usually). He also faces competition from Leroy Hill. I like Hawthorne’s chance to be a beast again in 2010, but there are enough question marks surrounding this season that an ADP of 22 seems a bit overvalued. That said, of all the guys on this list of overvalued players, I think D.H. has the best chance to prove me wrong.

Yearly stats are taken from FFToday.com, and ADP results from MyFantasyLeague.com

How bout them Cowboys! As the Cowboys try to build on a season that saw them win their 17^th NFC East title and their first playoff game since 1996, they will be led  by Tony Romo who led the league in yards passing (4,483 pass yards) alongside Miles Austin, whose league high 1,320 receiving yards and 11 TD was an unexpected emergence.  The Cowboys also welcomed in the state of the art home stadium that seems to give them an advantage, going 7-2 in the inaugural year at Cowboys Stadium hitting the end zone 24 times.

Division: NFC East – Projected Finish: 1st Place

Strength of Schedule: 28th = 3^rd Toughest. The NFC East has gotten tougher and being defending NFC East champ gives them a tough road ahead.

Dallas Cowboys 2010 Fantasy Football Draft Targets

Quarterback

In his fourth year as starter for the Dallas Cowboys Tony Romo took his game to new heights as he had a career high 4,4483 passing yards, and threw for 26 TD for the second consecutive year; he also had a career low nine interceptions.  Romo also established club records for attempts (550), completions (347), passing yards (4,483) and 300-yard games (eight).

Romo’s TD passes came in bunches last season as he had six games with three-or-more touchdowns.  In total, Romo has 17 career games with three-or-more touchdowns which is tied for second in franchise history with the great Roger Staubach and three behind Danny White (20).

Tony Romo’s rise from undrafted free agent out of Eastern Illinois to Pro Bowl quarterback has been one of the greatest NFL and fantasy stories, we all better hope he doesn’t leave the NFL to become a professional golfer.

Running Back

The Cowboys running back situation is an intriguing one to most fantasy draft boards. The three headed monster of Marian Barber, Felix Jones and Tashard Choice all got to the end zone and all spent time on the sidelines or injured list.  Overall, the Cowboys as a team still ranked seventh in the NFL in rushing yards per game (131.4).

• Felix Jones – Although Jones has started only one game in his Cowboys career, this is poised to be a breakout year for the third year player out of Arkansas.  Jones showed late last season he could carry the load running for 308 yards on 45 carries in the last three games of the season.  All indications are Jones will be the starter this season for the Cowboys and you should target him like that in all fantasy drafts.
• Marian Barber – Not ready to give up his starting position Marian the Barbarian came into the Cowboys OTA’s 10 pounds lighter.  If possible you should handcuff Felix Jones to Marian Barber in your fantasy draft for both players have spent considerable amount of time on the injured list in their short careers. I wouldn’t even be surprised to see Barber go back to his ’07 role as he was the closer for Julius Jones scoring 10 TD and averaging 4.8 yards per carry.

Wide Receiver

Miles Austin surprised almost everyone last season with his meteoric rise and this season will look to prove that his season was not an aberration, but a building block for a budding NFL superstar.

• Miles Austin – Busted onto the scene in his first career start in Week 5 game vs Kansas City that saw him catch 10 balls for 250 yards, 2 TD including the game winning touchdown in OT.  Then there was no stopping the fourth year player out of Monmouth, New Jersey as he caught 11TD and even more impressive 8 catches of 40+ yards.  Expect more of the same from Austin this season even with defenses paying more attention to him; expect Austin to be the third receiver to come off the fantasy draft boards.
• Dez Bryant – What, you thought I was going to spotlight Roy Williams?  Dez Bryant is one the biggest high risk, high reward player out there for fantasy owners.  The first-round pick is already running with the first team in the clubs OTA’s and has been getting high praise from all his teammates.  Even knowing that rookie WR usually do not have much impact in fantasy sports Dez Bryant could be a good fantasy sleeper to keep your eye on.

Tight End

If you are in a Point per Reception league Jason Witten is one of the top tight end options out there as he has averaged 90.3 receptions the last three seasons.  Witten is Romo’s favorite big target as they have connected 312 times for 3,664 and 14 TD in their four year relationship.  If you are not in a PPR league then Witten might not be your target as he has only scored 6 TD in the last two seasons that being said you could do worse as he was third in the league in receiving yards for tight ends (1,030)

Defense

The Cowboys defense is on the rise as the core players are in their prime.  The team Defense and Special Teams ranked seventh in fantasy points last year and gave up only 15.6 points per game, good for second in the NFL but was near the bottom with only 21 takeaways.

Dallas Cowboys 2010 Schedule

1	Sep 12	DAL @ WAS	FedEx Field	8:20 PM	NBC
2	Sep 19	CHI @ DAL	Cowboys Stadium	1:00 PM	FOX
3	Sep 26	DAL @ HOU	Reliant Stadium	1:00 PM	FOX
4	Bye
5	Oct 10	TEN @ DAL	Cowboys Stadium	4:15 PM	CBS
6	Oct 17	DAL @ MIN	Mall of America Field	4:15 PM	FOX
7	Oct 25	NYG @ DAL	Cowboys Stadium	8:30 PM	ESPN
8	Oct 31	JAC @ DAL	Cowboys Stadium	1:00 PM	CBS
9	Nov 07	DAL @ GB	Lambeau Field	8:20 PM	NBC
10	Nov 14	DAL @ NYG	New Meadowlands Stadium	4:15 PM	FOX
11	Nov 21	DET @ DAL	Cowboys Stadium	1:00 PM	FOX
12	Nov 25	NO @ DAL	Cowboys Stadium	4:15 PM	FOX
13	Dec 05	DAL @ IND	Lucas Oil Stadium	4:15 PM	FOX
14	Dec 12	PHI @ DAL	Cowboys Stadium	8:20 PM	NBC
15	Dec 19	WAS @ DAL	Cowboys Stadium	1:00 PM	FOX
16	Dec 25	DAL @ ARI	University of Phoenix Stadium	7:30 PM	NFLN
17	Jan 02	DAL @ PHI	Lincoln Financial Field	1:00 PM	FOX

Coaching Strategy

Offense

In 2009 the Dallas Cowboys offense had club record 6,390 yards good for 399.4 yards per game which was second behind only the Super Bowl Champions New Orleans (403.8).  Finding the end zone though was a little bit more difficult as they were 14^th in points (22.6 points per game).

Jason Garrett fourth year as the offensive coordinator of the Cowboys has to build on his success from last year as the highest paid assistant continues his rise towards head coaching.  In his previous three seasons the Cowboys offense has averaged 24.5 points per game and 369.9 yards per game as he has oversaw the development of Tony Romo, Marian Barber and now Miles Austin.

The high octane offense needs to turn all those yards into touchdowns this season for the Cowboys offensive players to be fantasy studs.

Two places they hope to improve to make these players fantasy studs are the red zone and offensive line. The Cowboys ranked 14^th in the league in red zone efficiency, with 26 touchdowns on 50 trips (52.0%).  The offensive line gave up 34 sacks, tied for 15th in the league, and was a  place for an upgrade this off-season, as they acquired a new left tackle in former first round pick Alex Baron, taking over for Flozell Adams.

Defense

The Cowboys defense took a turn for the best when head coach Wade Phillips jumped into the flashback machine and took over play calling.  The defense finished the regular season with a bang with back-to-back shutouts of division rivals Redskins and Eagles.

They were led in sacks once again by DeMarcus Ware who followed up his 2008 20 sack performance with 11 sacks last season.  Jay Ratliff continued his rise to one of the best interior rushers as he recorded six sacks last season.

The Cowboys were one of only four teams that boasted a top-10 offense and defense.  The ninth ranked defense allowed 315.9 yards-per-game last season and was much better against the run (90.5 per-game) than through the air (225.4 yards-per-game).  Those passing defense numbers will be tested as they play three of the top passing teams from last year (Texans, Colts, and Saints).  Like their offense they will need to improve in their red zone defense as opponents scored on 18-of-32 trips (56.3%) which was 23rd in the league last season.

Is Rolando McClain 2010's version of James Laurinaitis?

UPDATED: September 5, 2010

The Linebacker position is the easiest Individual Defensive Player (IDP) spot to draft for. There is more consistency at the position than Defensive Back, and greater depth than Defensive Lineman. And more so than the other two positions, stud rookie Linebackers tend to surface each season like Jerod Mayo, Patrick Willis, Brian Cushing and James Laurinaitis.

Which rookie linebacker is most likely to surprise this season with 100 tackles? We like Rolando McClain for the Oakland Raiders, but we think Darryl Washington could be a nice sleeper pick as well for the Arizona Cardinals.

Some may question my reasoning for putting David Hawthorne before Lafu Tatupa, but as we’ve already seen in camp this summer, Tatupa cannot stay healthy, making Hawthorne even more valuable.

Top 50 IDP Defensive Lineman Rankings

Top 50 IDP Defensive Back Rankings

There were some inspiring performances in week 8, Julius Peppers and Demarcus Ware have been red-hot as of late and seem to be back to their stud production levels, while Jairus Byrd (BUF, DB) is showing some incredible consistency making big plays on defense for his club.

This week we have a few names you should be watching throughout the next couple of weeks, these guys are primed for a breakout performance in week 9. Start of the week goes to Dumervil, who has been on a torrid sack pace this year. Elvis is in the building and gets to feast on Ben Roethlisberger this week…..enough said!

Let’s get started!

Julius Peppers is playing some of his most potent football in '09!

Start of the week: Elvis Dumervil, LB, DEN!

Start’em:

1) Trent Cole (DE): Trent Cole has proven to be a force at the DE position, this week he has a favorable match-up against Tony Romo and the Dallas Cowboys. With the Eagles and Cowboys ability to score points through the air, both teams should be poised for defensive production throughout the campaign. Start Trent Cole with high expectations to get pressure on the QB, and he could just prove to be a beast this week against a division rival.

2) Clay Mathews JR. (LB): Mathews is proving to be a force from the OLB position, his ability to wreak havoc with his speed and strength on the outside should prove to be a force against a woeful TB front that’s had problems all over the field. Josh Freeman will be the QB under center when these two faceoff on Sunday, it should be quite a game for Mathews who will look to put Freeman on his back all game…..or at least most of it!

3) Lawrence Jackson (DE/DL): Lawrence Jackson isn’t a huge IDP name yet, but he is getting points on a consistent basis and seems to have a favorable match-up with the Detroit Lions. If you have a Jared Allen or Calvin Pace on a bye week, then your best bet is to pick up Jackson who has four sacks in seven games this season. With his ability to get pressure, he should be a good bet to see Stafford in the backfield at some point during their meeting.

4) Antrell Rolle (DB): Rolle has been on a roll lately, turning himself into one of the hottest DB’s in fantasy football. The switch from corner-back to safety is paying huge dividends for his fantasy value, this week he gets a turnover-prone Jay Cutler. With the Bears throwing the ball more than usual these days, Rolle and the rest of the secondary should have plenty of opportunities to make plays on the ball. This game should prove to be a battle through the air, with Chicago’s running-game looking less than stellar.

5) Antoine Bethea (DB): Bethea has been showing tons of potential, and his match-up is always favorable when your team leads every game. With Manning leading the offense this game should prove to be an aerial contest, and what’s better for an IDP safety than constant opportunities to make plays? Schaub’s main focus is to get the ball to Andre Johnson, so Bethea will be challenged to make plays all game. Start him with confidence this week.

Sit’em:

1) Julius Peppers (DE): If you happened to get a glimpse of my last weeks IDP article, I chose to sit Peppers against Arizona…..how did that work out? Not very good, as Peppers lit up Arizona’s front line and even got an INT for a TD. Could I be making the same mistake this week against New Orleans? Peppers is one of the most elite DE’s in the game and should be in the top five for IDP lineman, but you have to take into account that New Orleans doesn’t give up many fantasy points to DE’s. Last week I told you to sit Abraham against New Orleans…..which turned out to be a good sit, as Abraham had trouble trying to get to Brees all game. It’s not too far fetched to think this beast gets Brees, but it’s a tough match-up.

2) Brandon Meriweather (DB): Meriweather is usually a really good IDP DB, but not this week. Miami has proven they can run the ball consistently against even the best of defenses, this week will be no different as Brown and Williams will combine to rush the ball as much as possible and keep Brady and the Patriots offense off the field for most of the game. Miami gives fantasy points to LB’s more than DB’s and that trend should continue throughout the rest of the regular season. Sit Meriweather and get yourself a replacement for this week.

3) James Harrison (OLB): This seems kind of like the Julius Peppers situation, amazing talent with a tough match-up. Harrison will find life very tough this week against that mauler Ryan “don’t even think about it” Clady. Clady is easily one of the best tackles in football (just ask Cutler if he misses him yet!) and Harrison will find that out very shortley. This is going to be the best match-up this week, while everyone else will be focusing on Kyle Orton and Roethlisberger, I will be watching these two freak athletes go head to head. If you are just a plain old fashion fan of football, this is the best match-up to watch this week….by far!

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San Francisco’s Vernon Davis could benefit from the Niners’ change at QB.

This has been one of the strongest fantasy seasons for tight ends in recent memory, and Week Eight might be the banner week at the position.

The bye week hits for owners of Pittsburgh’s Heath Miller, and would have for Washington’s Chris Cooley if he hadn’t broken his foot on Monday night. The injury presents a headache for Cooley owners because Fred Davis would be the logical drop/add, but the Redskins are off this week.

With the exception of Miller and Cooley/Davis owners, the matchups present lots of potential gold at the tight end position this week.

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