Reggie's best fantasy days are behind him.

We’ve been talking an awful lot about sleepers the last month, and we’ve mentioned some overvalued players in our over/under series, but in recent drafts a few names keep popping up that shouldn’t be.

As important as it is to know who to draft and when, it’s equally important to avoid fantasy landmines– guys who will leave craters in your fantasy production.

Last season I caught all sorts of flak for my preseason article declaring Michael Turner a bust. He certainly didn’t perform close to the second overall pick which is where he was being drafted. Being a bust is about not performing close to the value of where a player is picked. They need not be dreadful, just significantly under-performing their draft slot.

So below we have a list of some of this season’s likely busts, based on current ADP. In other words, unless they really slip, you don’t want them on your roster in 2010.

1. DeAngelo Williams, RB, CAR ~ Williams remains tethered to the top 10 RB listings based solely on his monster 2008 season. With Jonathan Stewart on the field, Williams is not likely to see those numbers again. 2008 was the exception, not the rule. He’s currently going in the second round, but his likely output is 4th round. Stewart will likely perform as well and he’s going in the 5th/6th rounds. Alternatives: Ryan Mathews, Shonne Green or Ryan Grant.
2. CJ Spiller, RB, BUF ~ Spiller is a serious talent, but he’s not an every down back, and he’s being drafted ahead of his team’s starter. If you can get him in the 8th round or later, you should find value, but if you’re in a standard redraft league (not a keeper) then taking him in the 5th/6th rounds is likely to be a costly waste of a high draft pick. Alternatives: Felix Jones, Ahmad Bradshaw, Arian Foster, or here’s a thought, Fred Jackson.
3. Reggie Bush, RB, NOS ~ You pretty much know what you’re going to get with Reggie; about a 35th place RB finish. Yet every season he’s drafted around 10 spots and 6-10 rounds too early. This season he’s going two picks after CJ Spiller above. He is a massive fantasy bust at this price. Alternatives: Felix Jones, Ahmad Bradshaw, Arian Foster, or Michael Bush
4. DeSean Jackson, WR, PHI ~ There is no doubt that DJ has skills, but I believe last season we saw him at his best. Many are expecting him to get into the 80-100 reception range, but he’s more TD dependent than most top receivers. His 63 receptions in 2009 is more likely his ceiling than his starting point. He is being overvalued and going a good 2 rounds earlier than his performance level, especially in PPR leagues. Alternatives: Greg Jennings, Marques Colston or either Steve Smith.
5. Kenny Britt, WR, TEN ~ People are just in love with this kid despite the fact that he’s done nothing to merit any of their faith. He’s been so bad this summer that he’s barely got a grasp on the WR3 slot, yet he’s being drafted ahead of many WR1 players. According to the Nashville Tennessean, Titans coach Jeff Fisher threatened Friday to deactivate Britt on game days if he doesn’t get his head on straight mentally.
   “If I suspect there’s issues, he is not part of the 45 (-man roster),” said Fisher. “…If I suspect there would be a problem, we have other receivers I’ll play instead of Kenny.” Alternatives: Bernard Berrian, Jabar Gaffney, Mohamed Massaquoi, Louis Murphy or either Mike Williams.
6. Jets Defense ~ The Jets defense has been the consistent pick for D/ST taken in drafts, and as good as they are on the field, it doesn’t translate to fantasy fortunes. They limit scoring but don’t make a lot of big plays. And now they start the season without Darrelle Revis. But with or without Revis they are not one of the top 3 fantasy defenses. I currently have them ranked 4th, and they may still be generous. Alternatives: Philadelphia Eagles, Minnesota Vikings or Green Bay Packers.

And for you IDP players, here’s a 6-pack just for you…

1. Troy Polamalu, DB,  PIT ~ I love Polamalu, and now he’s insured his hair for a million dollars. You can’t help but dig this guy. But for fantasy purposes, his image overrides his fantasy value. He’s currently the 6th DB drafted in most leagues and in 10-12 team leagues he’s not even worth drafting. In deeper leagues he’s a DB3/4 at best. Alternatives: Our DB Rankings can give you a number of better options.
2. Darrelle Revis, DB, NYJ ~ Let’s forget for a moment that Revis isn’t even planning on playing in 2010 at this point, even if he were his current ADP of 9th among DBs is sheer insanity. When I had him ranked he was just outside the top 30, now he’s off the board. Like Polamalu above, people are paying for the name, not the fantasy production. See the rankings link above for alternatives. Update: Just hours after writing this Revis ended his hold-out, but nothing changes. He’s still a major bust as a top 10 DB fantasy pick.
3. Louis Delmas, DB, DET ~ This is more gut instinct than anything else, but I simply don’t trust Delmas, and i think he’ll be a bust this season. he may even give way to Aaron Spievey at some point if he can’t stay healthy. I think there are safer picks to be had who will put up equal to or better numbers. Alternatives: Tanard Jackson, Antoine Winfield, Antoine Bethea, or my sleeper pick, Kenny Phillips.
4. Brian Cushing, LB, HOU ~ I think Cushing is a stud, but in 2010 he’s missing a quarter of the season to suspension for steriod use. So you only get 3 quarters of a season with a guy who’s no longer pumped on steroids, and who will be out of sync with the team. As well, he also plays on the strong side which is the weakest for fantasy production. Cushing’s numbers are more dependent on big plays than most LBs. For all these reasons I’m letting someone else pay his freight this season. Even if you really believe in him, he’s still not worth a 13th round pick when there are still numerous LBs who can give you close to 100 solo tackles. Alternatives: Our LB Rankings can give you a number of better options.
5. Ndamukong Suh, DL, DET ~ A boy named Suh is on the fantasy radar of every new IDP player who is as yet non-savvy in the ways of the game. He is currently the 12th defensive lineman being drafted and the first defensive tackles. Here are some reasons way Suh is a fantasy bust. 1) He plays tackle, not defensive end. Tackles rarely put up fantasy viable numbers. 2) He’s a rookie, and rookie linemen rarely flourish in their first year, especially defensive tackles. 3) At his position with his team’s defensive scheme, he will be lucky to put up 20 tackles and more than 3 sacks.  Alternatives: Our DL Rankings can give you a number of better options.
6. Dwight Freeney, DL, IND ~ I must be insane. This guy had 13.5 sacks last season. Second only to Jared Allen among linemen. This is true. Still Freeney only had half the fantasy points of Allen, primarily because he doesn’t get many tackles. While Allen was the leagues top scoring DL, Freeney was 15th. He’s being drafted a good 6 – 7 rounds earlier than he should be. He will likely get around 25 solo tackles and 9-10 sacks, if healthy. Alternatives: Aaron Kampman, Darnell Dockett,  Robert Mathis or Justin Smith.

Can Camarillo be a steady target for Favre?

The final preseason games are over. Most drafts are over. Final roster cuts are being made. More injuries have occurred. This seems like a good time to get our first look at the best waiver wire pick-ups of the preseason.

Every position and every team has had some interesting twists and turns over the preseason’s four games. So let’s go around the league and take a look at each team’s standouts and potential waiver fodder, plus Watch-list candidates.

–NFC North–

Chicago Bears:

Nobody in Bears camp this year has really flown under-the-radar enough to consider waiver wire grabs. As expected WRs Johnny Knox and Devin Aromashodu have snagged the #2 and #3 receiving slots. The IDP players are all as anticipated. The one potential question mark is that of much maligned TE, Greg Olsen. No one is as yet quite sure how he will fair in Mike Martz’s offense, and there are rumors he could be traded. Keep in mind, Olsen has the skills to be a top 5 TE, so depending on how things play out he could be a huge sleeper this year. If you have room on your bench he could be a nice grab. Otherwise I would simply watch-list him for now.

Detroit Lions:

Much like the Bears, there were few standout surprises this summer. WR Nate Burleson has sewn up the #2 WR slot, and is still not getting much fantasy love on a team with a huge passing game. If you need depth at WR he’s a strong waiver grab. Other than that, the Lions fantasy notables are all on the radar.

Green Bay Packers:

The Pack end the preseason with few surprises. The big camp battle was for the WR3 slot. It seems my sleeper pick, James Jones has won the gig, and is worth a late pick or bench slot. Don’t discount Jordy Nelson yet though. Keep him on your watch list. Brandon Jackson is a definite handcuff to Ryan Grant who strikes me as fragile. For IDP players, the name to know is DB rookie Morgan Burnett.

Minnesota Vikings:

The Vikings wasted no time today in trading away RB Darius Reynaud and back-up QB, Sage Rosenfels. Both were shipped to the New York Giant’s today. I still think the Giants could turn around and trade Sage for Matt Leinart, but that’s for another column. The area of interest with the Vikes is at wide receiver. The team signed former Raider/Packer and oft-injured Javon Walker, and though the stats show him looking good, he may not make the 53-man roster. He is clearly rusty. Meanwhile the team also picked up former Dolphin Greg Camarillo who has already make a connection with Brett Favre. Barring the team signing another receiver (say T.J. Houshmanzadeh) I believe Camarillo will beat out Greg Lewis for the WR3 slot. He has sure hands (he had 50 recptions with no drops, in 2009). He should be a worthwhile pick-up in PPR leagues.

Previous: AFC North

Next up: AFC West

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Having one of the top picks in your fantasy football draft is a privilege, not a right. This season having the first pick seems to be a more difficult decision than falling at the number two spot. But with names out there such as Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson, Drew Brees and Maurice Jones-Drew, many people are confused on whom to take in what spot; well this is the article for you. Here is the list of the top picks in this years fantasy football draft:

1. Adrian Peterson, RB, Minnesota Vikings-

WARNING: Please do not adjust your computer screens… I did just pick AP over the king-like Chris Johnson. What is my reason for this unthinkable act? Two names: Chester Taylor and Brett Favre. I think Adrian Peterson will be the best player in fantasy football this year because of the loss of Chester Taylor to their Midwest rival the Chicago Bears and because Brett Favre just returned to the gridiron and can now create the threat of a passing game. With the loss of Chester, I think AP is going to get even more carries than he got in the previous three seasons [I know he got 363 in 2008, but if Favre struggles or shows his age its possible], especially if Brad Childress feels his seat getting hot [hard to see with such a good team, but definitely possible]. I just cannot see a scenario where Peterson does not carry the ball at least 20 times a game for sixteen weeks [math test… X>320 carries], and does not accumulate some of the 21 total touchdowns AP lost to Chester Taylor over the past four seasons. I have yet to mention the most recent injury to the Vikings core of their offense in Sidney Rice. With their top receiver gone for the first half of the season it is going to be tough to replace a big threat like that, but with the addition of former Favre teammate Javon Walker, I do still think AP will have a tremendous season. If you have the number one pick in your fantasy football draft this season, take AP.

2. Chris Johnson, RB, Tennessee Titans-

On many fans top picks list, the name Chris Johnson usually comes up before any other player; but on this list, Johnson comes in at number two. Tennessee is a run first team with very little experience in the aerial attack, which is the reason why I like Peterson better than Johnson. I just think there is going to be too much attention spent on stopping the running game in Tennessee for Johnson to even close to repeat what he did last year. If you are adding up the amounts of touches Johnson got last season, including rushing attempts and catches, he touched the ball over 400 times. The number 400 really scares me, especially when you are dealing with running backs, the reason for this is wear and tear usually affects these type of backs more than any other position on the field. Running backs that have to carry that much of the load are extremely prone to nagging or serious injuries the next season. Even if Chris Johnson does play 16 games this season, I simply do not expect him to even close to produce the ridiculous year he just had. The two most recent examples of backs having great seasons, then being hit by the injury/poor season bug were Matt Forte in 2008 and Michael Turner in 2009. I really do not think you can go bad with Chris Johnson this year, I just think you can do better in AP.

3. Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars-

For a team who went 7-9 last season, I just do not see the Jaguars doing much worse than they did last year, and with that being said I just do not see how people are not extremely high on MJD. I can understand there being some angst about the fact he is only 5’7”, but you just cannot argue with statistics and production. Accumulating almost 1,800 yards last season with 16 touchdowns, MJD was statistically on par with Adrian Peterson and I think this season will be no different. With the additions on the defensive side of the ball for the Jaguars, I think it will just improve the output on the offensive side this year. No questions asked, if the Jaguars succeed in any way this season, so will Maurice Jones-Drew and that is why I would take him 3^rd behind Chris Johnson and Adrian Peterson.

4. Ray Rice, RB, Baltimore Ravens-

Most people will think the fact I put Ray Rice at the four spot means I am not very high on him this season, but that is totally wrong. Will Ray Rice have a good, productive year? Of course he will, I just think there is too much surrounding him in their offensive scheme for him to be taken above MJD. This running back out of Rutgers is an absolute speed demon that will catch a ton of balls out of the backfield this year from Joe Flacco. My problem just lies in that I saw at the beginning of last year for the Ravens; Willis McGahee started the season off with seven touchdowns by week 5, and people all over the fantasy world were so extremely high on Willis and his resurgence; but as the weeks went by all we saw was less McGahee and more Rice. This season I think will be different, Ray Rice is going to be the feature back without a doubt in Baltimore, but what will happen this year is the continual subbing of McGahee and Leron McClain to make sure Rice does not get over worked. The absolute last thing the Ravens want to see happen is the wearing down of Ray Rice, he is their franchise running back in his second year, they know this is not the time for him to be getting his 400 touches both rushing and receiving for the time being and that is why I prefer MJD to Rice if picking 3^rd in my fantasy football draft.

5. Here is where the scoring settings in your league determines whom to choose…

A. Frank Gore, RB, San Francisco 49ers-

If the settings in your league do not lean you towards having to take a quarterback early to succeed, Frank Gore is a perfect option in the number five position. With the addition of Brian Westbrook to the offense, I think Gore will have an even better year than people projected him to have with Glen Coffee back there before he retired. Westbrook will bring a sense of toughness and veracity that Mike Singletary looks for in his players and I think his veteran leadership will go a long way in shaping Frank Gore into an even better running back. With the 49ers playing in one of the easiest divisions in football, and having as a result of that one of the easiest schedules, Gore will get a ton of opportunities to show off his skills and put numbers on the board, and that is why I like Frank Gore this upcoming fantasy football season.

B. Andre Johnson, WR, Houston Texans-

Andre Johnson is flat out the best talent at his position, hands down. But it really matters what the settings are in your league if you are considering taking him at this point in your draft. Settings such as receptions and the amount of yards per point for WR in your league are things you need to be paying attention to when making this pick in your draft. Another big point that needs to be discussed about Andre Johnson is the departure of offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan. If this in anyway ends up affecting Matt Schaubs’ effectiveness, than it will without a doubt affect Andre Johnsons’ statistics this upcoming season. In the past three seasons, Johnsons has scored a total of 25 touchdowns in 41 games, with over 3,000 yards receiving in the past two seasons combined. So as you can see the production is there, the question just lies in the value in your specific league.

C. Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers or Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints-

The topic of quarterback in fantasy football leagues is an age long debate of who and when to pull the trigger. Put the conversation again has to start with the specific settings in your league. If quarterbacks are getting 6 points for each touchdown [and no more than -2 for interceptions] than taking a quarterback needs to be an absolute priority walking into draft day. But lately I have noticed many leagues transforming their statistics to 4 points per touchdown pass, and in that case taking a quarterback this early is not a good buy in my opinion and here is why.

- Aaron Rodgers, 2009 season statistics: 30 TD, 7 INT around 4,500 yards passing

- Chris Johnson, 2009 season statistics: 16 TD total, 2.000 yards rushing, 500 yards receiving

If you were using a 6-point per passing touchdown format Rodgers would have scored approximately 350 total fantasy points and Johnson would have scored around 360 total fantasy points. The point I am trying to make here is that Chris Johnson had a season last year that pretty much cannot be compared to any other running back in the history of the game and he only scored 10 more points than Rodgers if using this certain format and that is why paying attention to your scoring settings can be the difference between taking Aaron Rodgers with the 5^th pick and going after someone like Frank Gore.

When comparing Aaron Rodgers to Drew Brees it is really like picking between Dom Perignon and Cristal, it’s a personal choice. But when it comes down to draft day and you have to choose between the two of them, I think it really comes down to picking the teams more than it is picking the player with these two. It comes down to asking yourself both which offensive scheme you would rather have as well as which defense is going to give your perspective quarterback the most and best opportunities to put up points. If you ask me, I like Aaron Rodgers more than Brees, and the reason for this is because I like Green Bay to win their division this year and I think the combination of Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush will take away certain chances for Brees that I do not think Ryan Grant will take away from Aaron Rodgers’ production.

1. Chris Johnson, Running back, Tennessee Titans

2009 stats: 2,006 rushing yards, 14 touchdowns/503 receiving yards, 2 touchdowns, 3 lost fumbles

2010 projected: 1,735 rushing yards, 15 touchdowns/400 receiving yards, 2 touchdowns

2. Adrian Peterson, Running back, Minnesota Vikings

2009 stats: 1,383 rushing yards, 18 touchdowns/436 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns/6 lost fumbles

2010 projected: 1,472 rushing yards, 14 touchdowns/297 receiving yards, 1 touchdown

3. Maurice Jones-Drew, Running back, Jacksonville Jaguars

2009 stats: 1,391 rushing yards, 15 touchdowns/374 receiving yards, 1 touchdown/1 lost fumble

2010 projected: 1,432 rushing yards, 13 touchdowns/516 receiving yards, 2 touchdowns

4. Ray Rice, Running back, Baltimore Ravens

2009 stats: 1,139 rushing yards, 7 touchdowns/702 receiving yards, 1 touchdown/3 lost fumbles

2010 projected: 1,244 rushing yards, 8 touchdowns/467 receiving yards, 2 touchdowns

5. Frank Gore, Running back, San Francisco 49ers

2009 stats: 1,120 rushing yards, 10 touchdowns/406 receiving yards, 3 touchdowns/2 lost fumbles

2010 projected: 1,221 rushing yards, 10 touchdowns/459 receiving yards, 3 touchdowns

6. Drew Brees, Quarterback, New Orleans Saints

2009 stats: 4,388 passing yards, 34 touchdowns, 11 interceptions, 6 lost fumbles

2010 projected: 4,732 passing yards, 34 touchdowns, 12 interceptions

7. Michael Turner, Running back, Atlanta Falcons

2009 stats: 871 rushing yards, 10 touchdowns/35 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns/2 lost fumbles

2010 projected: 1,364 rushing yards, 14 touchdowns/67 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns

8. Aaron Rodgers, Quarterback, Green Bay Packers

2009 stats: 4,434 passing yards, 30 touchdowns, 7 interceptions, 5 rushing touchdowns, 4 lost fumbles

2010 projected: 4,292 passing yards, 28 touchdowns, 11 interceptions, 4 rushing touchdowns

9. Andre Johnson, Wide receiver, Houston Texans

2009 stats: 101 receptions, 1,569 receiving yards, 9 touchdowns

2010 projected: 1,278 receiving yards, 7 touchdowns

10. Peyton Manning, Quarterback, Indianapolis Colts

2009 stats: 4,500 passing yards, 33 touchdowns, 16 interceptions, 0 lost fumbles

2010 projected: 4,852 passing yards, 36 touchdowns, 15 interceptions

11. DeAngelo Williams, Running back, Carolina Panthers

2009 stats: 1,117 rushing yards, 7 touchdowns/252 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns/3 lost fumbles

2010 projected: 1,221 rushing yards, 10 touchdowns/240 receiving yards, 1 touchdown

12. Steven Jackson, Running back, St. Louis Rams

2009 stats: 1,416 rushing yards, 4 touchdowns/322 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns/2 lost fumbles

2010 projected: 1,056 rushing yards, 5 touchdowns/369 receiving yards, 2 touchdowns

13. Randy Moss, Wide receiver, New England Patriots

2009 stats: 83 receptions, 1,264 receiving yards, 13 touchdowns

2010 projected: 1,035 receiving yards, 11 touchdowns

14. Ryan Grant, Running back, Green Bay Packers

2009 stats: 1,253 rushing yards, 11 touchdowns/197 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns, 1 lost fumble

2010 projected: 1,106 rushing yards, 9 touchdowns/186 receiving yards, 1 touchdown

15. Reggie Wayne, Wide receiver, Indianapolis Colts

2009 stats: 100 receptions, 1,264 receiving yards, 10 touchdowns

2010 projected: 1,142 receiving yards, 9 touchdowns

16. Cedric Benson, Running back, Cincinnati Bengals

2009 stats: 1,251 rushing yards, 6 touchdowns/111 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns, 0 lost fumbles

2010 projected: 1,367 rushing yards, 11 touchdowns/161 receiving yards, 1 touchdown

17. Shonn Greene, Running back, New York Jets

2009 stats: 540 rushing yards, 2 touchdowns, 3 lost fumbles

2010 projected: 1,403 rushing yards, 8 touchdowns/43 receiving yards, 1 touchdown

18. Miles Austin, Wide receiver, Dallas Cowboys

2009 stats: 81 receptions, 1,320 receiving yards, 11 touchdowns

2010 projected: 1,115 receiving yards, 10 touchdowns

19. DeSean Jackson, Wide receiver, Philadelphia Eagles

2009 stats: 63 receptions, 1,167 receiving yards, 9 touchdowns

2010 projected: 1,263 receiving yards, 6 touchdowns

20. Tom Brady, Quarterback, New England Patriots

2009 stats: 4,398 passing yards, 28 touchdowns, 13 interceptions, 1 rushing touchdown, 2 lost fumbles

2010 projected: 3,897 passing yards, 25 touchdowns, 14 interceptions

21. Larry Fitzgerald, Wide receiver, Arizona Cardinals

2009 stats: 97 receptions, 1,092 receiving yards, 13 touchdowns

2010 projected: 1,388 receiving yards, 7 touchdowns

22. Rashard Mendenhall, Running back, Pittsburgh Steelers

2009 stats: 1,108 rushing yards, 7 touchdowns/261 receiving yards, 1 touchdown, 3 lost fumbles

2010 projected: 1,239 rushing yards, 8 touchdowns/303 receiving yards, 2 touchdowns

23. Philip Rivers, Quarterback, San Diego Chargers

2009 stats: 4,254 passing yards, 28 touchdowns, 9 interceptions, 1 rushing touchdown, 3 lost fumbles

2010 projected: 4,112 passing yards, 32 touchdowns, 11 interceptions

24. Knowshon Moreno, Running back, Denver Broncos

2009 stats: 947 rushing yards, 7 touchdowns/213 receiving yards, 2 touchdowns, 4 lost fumbles

2010 projected: 932 rushing yards, 7 touchdowns/231 receiving yards, 2 touchdowns

25. Brandon Marshall, Wide receiver, Miami Dolphins

2009 stats: 101 receptions, 1,120 receiving yards, 10 touchdowns

2010 projected: 1,120 receiving yards, 5 touchdowns

26. Matt Schaub, Quarterback, Houston Texans

2009 stats: 4,770 passing yards, 29 touchdowns, 15 interceptions, 2 lost fumbles

2010 projected: 4,424 passing yards, 25 touchdowns, 16 interceptions

27. Jamaal Charles, Running back, Kansas City Chiefs

2009 stats: 1,120 rushing yards, 7 touchdowns/297 receiving yards, 1 touchdown, 3 lost fumbles

2010 projected: 1,048 rushing yards, 8 touchdowns/357 receiving yards, 2 touchdowns

28. Roddy White, Wide receiver, Atlanta Falcons

2009 stats: 85 receptions, 1,153 receiving yards, 11 touchdowns

2010 projected: 1,226 receiving yards, 11 touchdown

29. Pierre Thomas, Running back, New Orleans Saints

2009 stats: 793 rushing yards, 6 touchdowns/302 receiving yards, 2 touchdowns, 1 lost fumble

2010 projected: 1,024 rushing yards, 8 touchdowns/386 receiving yards, 4 touchdowns

30. Jonathan Stewart, Running back, Carolina Panthers

2009 stats: 1,133 rushing yards, 10 touchdowns/139 receiving yards, 1 touchdown, 2 lost fumbles

2010 projected: 1,142 rushing yards, 10 touchdowns/154 receiving yards, 1 touchdown

31. Calvin Johnson, Wide receiver, Detroit Lions

2009 stats: 67 receptions, 984 receiving yards, 5 touchdowns

2010 projected: 1,078 receiving yards, 6 touchdowns

32. Sidney Rice, Wide receiver, Minnesota Vikings

2009 stats: 83 receptions, 1,312 receiving yards, 8 touchdowns

2010 projected: 1,036 receiving yards, 9 touchdowns

33. LeSean McCoy, Running back, Philadelphia Eagles

2009 stats: 637 rushing yards, 4 touchdowns, 1 lost fumble

2010 projected: 717 rushing yards, 5 touchdowns/ 387 receiving yards, 3 touchdowns

34. Anquan Boldin, Wide receiver, Baltimore Ravens

2009 stats: 84 receptions, 1,024 receiving yards, 4 touchdowns

2010 projected: 1,023 receiving yards, 7 touchdowns

35. Greg Jennings, Wide receiver, Green Bay Packers

2009 stats: 68 receptions, 1,113 receiving yards, 4 touchdowns

2010 projected: 1,084 receiving yards, 7 touchdowns

36. Tony Romo, Quarterback, Dallas Cowboys

2009 stats: 4,483 passing yards, 26 touchdowns, 9 interceptions, 1 rushing touchdown

2010 projected: 4,160 passing yards, 30 touchdowns, 12 interceptions

37. Steve Smith, Wide receiver, New York Giants

2009 stats: 107 receptions, 1,220 receiving yards, 7 touchdowns

2010 projected: 970 receiving yards, 5 touchdowns

38. Dallas Clark, Tight end, Indianapolis Colts

2009 stats: 100 receptions, 1,106 receiving yards, 10 touchdowns

2010 projected: 1,068 receiving yards, 10 touchdowns

39. Joe Flacco, Quarterback, Baltimore Ravens

2009 stats: 3,613 passing yards, 21 touchdowns, 12 interceptions

2010 projected: 3,652 passing yards, 24 touchdowns, 15 interceptions

40. Marques Colston, Wide receiver, New Orleans Saints

2009 stats: 70 receptions, 1,074 receiving yards, 9 touchdowns

2010 projected: 1,085 receiving yards, 10 touchdowns

41. Antonio Gates, Tight end, San Diego Chargers

2009 stats: 79 receptions, 1,157 receiving yards, 8 touchdowns

2010 projected: 1,041 receiving yards, 8 touchdowns

42. Ryan Mathews, Running back, San Diego Chargers

2009 stats: N/A

2010 projected: 1,260 rushing yards, 9 touchdowns/ 206 receiving yards, 2 touchdowns

43. Beanie Wells, Running back, Arizona Cardinals

2009 stats: 793 rushing yards, 7 touchdowns

2010 projected: 930 rushing yards, 8 touchdowns

44. Brent Celek, Tight end, Philadelphia Eagles

2009 stats: 76 receptions, 971 receiving yards, 8 touchdowns

2010 projected: 826 receiving yards, 6 touchdowns

45. Percy Harvin, Wide receiver, Minnesota Vikings

2009 stats: 60 receptions, 790 receiving yards, 6 touchdowns

2010 projected: 683 receiving yards, 5 touchdowns

46. Jahvid Best, Running back, Detroit Lions

2009 stats: N/A

2010 projected: 957 rushing yards, 7 touchdowns/ 270 receiving yards, 2 touchdowns

47. Michael Crabtree, Wide receiver, San Francisco 49ers

2009 stats: 48 receptions, 625 receiving yards, 2 touchdowns

2010 projected: 995 receiving yards, 5 touchdowns

48. Ricky Williams, Running back, Miami Dolphins

2009 stats: 1,121 rushing yards, 11 touchdowns/ 264 receiving yards, 2 touchdowns

2010 projected: 971 rushing yards, 7 touchdowns/ 188 receiving yards, 1 touchdown

49. Vernon Davis, Tight end, San Francisco 49ers

2009 stats: 78 receptions, 965 receiving yards, 13 touchdowns

2010 projected: 862 receiving yards, 7 touchdowns

50. Reggie Bush, Running back, New Orleans Saints

2009 stats: 390 rushing yards, 5 touchdowns/ 335 receiving yards, 3 touchdowns

2010 projected: 556 rushing yards, 5 touchdowns/ 311 receiving yards, 3 touchdowns

Leading the way for the Bucs is second year QB Josh Freeman, who also has a lot to prove.

Freeman dealt with more struggles than accomplishments last year, but what accomplishments he did achieve were nothing short of spectacular, including one outstanding comeback against a vaunted Green Bay Packers defense by a score of 38-28.

At 6’6” near 250 pounds, Freeman has rare size as a QB, but lacked the full potential to play directly under center—one of his biggest issues in 2009. Most of his critics felt that he was a better shotgun QB which accounted for the majority of his 1,855 yards.

But Freeman knows that playing both under center, and in the gun, is crucial to making it in the NFL which is why he has been drawing nothing but accolades from his coaching staff for his off-season work ethic.

But this is a fantasy site, and you are—hopefully—fantasy managers looking for reasons as to why Freeman is a fantasy sleeper. We here at Fantasyknuckleheads have Josh Freeman ranked 30th.

So, without further ado, let’s take a look at Josh Freeman’s sleeper potential.

Josh Freeman – QB – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
ADP: 172nd – 25th QB Selected

• The most interesting news out of camp has got to be RB Derrick Ward saying that Josh Freeman’s progress is ahead of where Eli Manning’s was as a second year QB; pretty interesting stuff coming from a guy who was there to watch Manning grow in his second year. A lot of this can be attributed to his off-season program, and getting together the tools needed to become a better QB. A better QB in the NFL is a better QB in fantasy, plain and simple…but wait there’s more!
• The Bucs lost their leading receiver Antonio Bryant to free agency, but there is plenty of talent ready to bust out in 2010 for the Bucs. WR Sammie Stroughter is the first to come to mind as he had an admirable year with 31 catches for 331 yards and a single score. His blinding speed and growing rapport with Freeman could be a fantasy difference maker on the field in 2010.The Bucs also acquired former Philadelphia Eagles receiver Reggie Brown, who has “highly impressed “the Bucs coaching staff in OTAs thus far. In six games for the Eagles, Brown had 9 catches for 155 yards, but there never really was enough room for Brown to bloom; something he is apparently doing in Tampa.
• Let us also remember that the Bucs leading receiver was actually a TE named Kellen Winslow who wreaked havoc in 2009, catching 77 balls for 884 yards and 5 TDs. Winslow is viewed to be the number one target for Freeman again in 2010.
• One major factor that contributes to a QBs success is how well his ground game is, and in Tampa, the ground game is a deadly combination of Cadillac Williams, and Derrick Ward specifically, if they can stay healthy.

The ground game was hampered by injures, and a sub-par “by committee” approach, gaining 1,298 yards and a dismal five TDs out of three guys (Earnest Graham being the third man). Head coach Raheem Morris has already stated that whoever has the “hot hand” will likely become the starter, which means more committee running by Ward and Williams.

But the thing is, these guys are healthy and ready to pave the way for a QB that, they feel, is ready to take the reigns as their new franchise QB. Anyone seeing the confidence pattern yet?

• As if his supporting cast isn’t enough to sell the deal, let’s not forget that Freeman threw for 8,078 yards and 44 TDs with a 59.1% completion rate, and a 124.7 QB rating in only three years as a Kansas State Wildcat.

Summary: I don’t think there’s any doubt that Freeman has “it”, but putting everything  together is paramount to his success as an NFL QB, and as a fantasy QB. The receivers seem to be “drawn” by his leadership skills, particularly rookie Mike Williams, which is a very good thing.

His off-season work has been spectacular, his work through OTAs has been wonderful, and his overall progress has been nothing short of incredible…all descriptions used by his coaching staff at one point or another.

Freeman has decent enough talent to put up solid QB 2 sleeper numbers this year. Deep league guys searching for a late round QB with some decent upside need to look to Josh Freeman.

Titans of the O-Line.

Believe it or not there is one player in fantasy football even less respected than the kicker, and that’s the offensive line. Though we do not draft these gridiron warriors, their impact on our fantasy teams may be a revelation for some. Most fantasy owners have no clue which teams boast the best offensive lines against the rush or the pass. For most of us it may just be more information than we have the time to research or absorb.

Some owners debunk the Strength of Schedule impact on fantasy football, and some may dismiss an offensive line’s impact, but of the two, the O-line can be more meaningful when considering who to draft, and who to sit or start each week. Does your league scoring ding you when your QB gets sacked? Many leagues do, and it’s good to know which teams protect their QB the best. I won’t bore you or fry your brain with the names of these fantasy offensive helpers, just which players are prospering or struggling because of them.

Let’s take a look at the best and the worst heading into 2010, and how they can conceivably harm or help your fantasy franchise.

I had the New Orleans Saints, Tennessee Titans and Atlanta Falcons in my top 5 last season and all three return this season at one, two and three.

1. New Orleans Saints – The Saints as expected did a ton of passing in 2009 and that won’t change in 2010. So the fact that they’ve given up an average of just 16 sacks the last two seasons is impressive. Their rush blocking improved from 4.0 to 4.5 YPC (yards per carry) last season. Their front 5 all return in 2010. Fantasy impact: A top O-line keeps Drew Brees on his feet, which means another big year. And the improved rush blocking bodes well for Pierre Thomas to have a huge season.
2. Tennessee Titans - Despite a slow start to the season, the Titans O-line was mighty effective, limiting opposing defenses to just 15 sacks, and helping RB Chris Johnson to a massive breakout campaign, and a final rush block stat of 5.1 YPC. Four of the teams five starters return in 2010, and they should have another solid season. Fantasy impact: Their ability to keep Vince Young on his feet means good things for WRs Kenny Britt, Nate Washington and TE Jared Cook. And of course there’s still Chris Johnson…if he plays.
3. Atlanta Falcons - The Falcons O-line had a few injuries that hurt last season, which plays somewhat into Matt Ryan’s lack of progression, and Micheal Turner’s down year. Still their rush blocking YPC was 4.2, and they only allowed 27 sacks. The latter should improve in 2010, and a healthy squad should help Turner open more holes. Fantasy Impact: Michael Turner gets a bump from a healthy front line, and Matt Ryan, Roddy White, and Tony Gonzalez should all have a slightly better year.
4. New England Patriots - The Patriots O-line got a big boost with the return of Tom Brady under center. The team’s sack total dropped from 48 in 2008 to 18 last season. The sack totals should once again be under 25, and the team’s YPC should be somewhere between 4 and 4.5. Fantasy impact: It’s hard to call the impact here. Brady has as alot to do with the O-line’s effectiveness against the pass, but together… Whoever the team’s RB is the O-line will help, but who that will be is anyone’s guess.
5. Baltimore Ravens – Their O-line helped lead Ray Rice and Co. to a 4.7 YPC performance. One of the league’s best. The return of 4 or 5 starters and the addition of Marshal Yanda, should only further improve the run game. They did surrender 36 sacks last season, but that has as much to do with Joe Flacco’s growing pains as anything else. Fantasy impact: O-line keeps Ray Rice a top 5 pick.
6. Arizona Cardinals - The Cardinals have solid run blocking, which should improve slightly in 2010, but with Kurt Warner gone, look for struggles in pass protection. They limited defenses to 26 sacks last season. That will go up this year with Matt Lienert at QB. They have excellent depth. Fantasy impact: upgrades for Beanie Wells and Tim Hightower, downgrade for Larry Fitzgerald.
7. New York Giants - Injuries hurt their performance last season, but when all 5 starters were in the game they were very solid. Look for an all around improvement in 2010, but the fantasy impact will be minimal. Fantasy impact: negligible.
8. San Francisco 49ers – The 49ers surprised people on both sides of the ball in 2009. That will likely continue in 2010. The team drafted to improve an already solid O-line including Idaho OG Mike Iupati and OT Anthony Davis, so look for slight improvement across the board because of it. Fantasy impact: negligible.
9. Cincinnati Bengals - The Bengals O-line really stepped up last season. They were pegged near the bottom of the O-line rankings, but as predicted, having Carson Palmer back helped immensely. Their sacks surrendered went down from 51 to 29. The run block was tepid, and looks to remain the same in 2010, but the pass protection continues to improve. Fantasy impact: Cedric Benson remains on my avoid list, but the improved O-line with Palmer healthy a full season, and T.O. and Ochocinco pushing each other… look out.
10. Carolina Panthers - The Panthers have a much better O-line than people give them credit for. They limited the defense to 33 sacks with Delhomme and Moore under center. Their rush block was even better, helping the team’s RB tandem to a 4.8 YPC campaign. Look for a slight drop in YPC this season, but all around they should have another solid year. Durability and depth are a concern. Fantasy impact: Expect similar production from Williams and Stewart in the run game. The real surprise could come with Matt Moore and Steve Smith.
11. New York Jets – Despite a rookie QB, the Jets O-line kept sacks to 30. The rush block clocked in at 4.5 YPC. Expect the pass protection to stay about the same, and the rush block to improve slightly. Depth is a huge concern. Fantasy impact: Shonn Greene looks to have a breakout season. If Mark Sanchez can remain on his feet and limit his INTs, these guys could win the AFC East division.
12. Miami Dolphins – The Dolphins just continue to quietly surprise across the board, and they are a dark horse in the AFC East. They gave up just 34 sacks with a rookie QB last year and they had a laudable 4.4 YPC on the ground. I think the YPC could actually improve this season. Fantasy impact: All around boost.
13. Cleveland Browns – The Browns may not be glamorous, but they have a solid O-line that continues to improve. The addition of a veteran QB will help them look better as well. They only gave up 30 sacks last season, and that could go down this year. Fantasy impact: negligible.
14. Indianapolis Colts - The Colts O-line is an enigma. They never let people get to the QB. Once again Manning only went down 13 times in 2009. Best in the league. However, their rush block was 2nd worst in the league, along with Houston, at 3.5 YPC. The pass protection should remain the same, but I expect improvement in the rush blocking. Fantasy impact: Joseph Addai had a great season without much help, so an improved rush block only makes him more of a sleeper.
15. Denver Broncos - Entering 2009 the Denver Broncos had the number one Offensive Line, and we saw early on the impact they had on the game, allowing the Broncos to win their first six games. Unfortunately, the entire team went into free fall after their bye week. How they do against the pass this year hinges on Ryan Clady’s health. Fantasy impact: negligible.
16. Dallas Cowboys - The Cowboys have an aging O-line. Only the Patriots have as many (4) over 30 guys upfront. They had a solid 2009 limiting sacks to 34, and better yet a 4.8 YPC rush block. Age is the big concern with 4 of 5 starters 31 or older. Still they should remain fairly solid barring injuries. Fantasy impact: due to the arsenal of weapons at Tony Romo‘s disposal it’s difficult to upgrade any one or two players.
17. Jacksonville Jaguars - All 5 starters return for the Jags and they have Justin Smiley in the wings. Their rush block was excellent, but they need to improve their pass protection, which I think they will in 2010. Fantasy impact: another great year for Maurice Jones-Drew, and better pass protection should help David Garrard and Mike Thomas.
18. Kansas City Chiefs – The Chiefs O-line looked great in the second half of the 2009 season, especially blocking for Jamaal Charles. If they can keep up the rush protection they have a chance to do big things in 2010. Their pass blocking seemed to improve down the stretch as well. Fantasy impact: Jamaal Charles, and to a lesser degree, Thomas Jones are helped if the O-line can play like they did late last year.
19. St. Louis Rams – The team has improved their O-line, but how much of an impact they will have in the passing game is hard to say with A.J. Feeley under center. Fantasy Impact: Look for another great season from Steven Jackson.
20. Seattle Seahawks – We all know how bad the Seahawks O-line was in 2009, but the addition of Russell Okung immediately makes them better. They are also employing a new zone-blocking scheme. Look for improvement across the board. The could be a nice surprise this year.
21. Minnesota Vikings – I don’t foresee much of a change from last year, so assume no impact on fantasy production. Fantasy impact: negligible.
22. Green Bay Packers – No one gave up more sacks than the Pack last season (51), which is a number that should improve this year. Great news for Aaron Rodgers owners. Their rush block at 4.3 YPC was solid, but I expect a drop off there in 2010, which is bad news for Ryan Grant. Fantasy impact: negligible.
23. Houston Texans – Perhaps the O-line with the greatest chance to surprise. They only surrendered 25 sacks in 2009. Their big whole is at rush blocking where they had a dismal 3.5 YPC (tied for 2nd worst in the league). They improved in the second half last season, and all 5 starters return. They are young so expect improvement. Fantasy impact: Another great year for Andre Johnson and Matt Schaub, but the running game remains suspect.
24. Philadelphia Eagles - Not great, not terrible. They had a 4.3 YPC rush block, but gave up 38 sacks. Now they essentially have to protect a fledgling RB in McCoy, and QB in Kolb. Fantasy impact: negligible.
25. Washington Redskins – It will be interesting to see how Donovan McNabb does in his new digs. He goes from a team with bad pass protection to one with worse protection. They did make some major improvements this off-season though. Fantasy impact: negligible.
26. Pittsburgh Steelers – It’s amazing the Steelers do as well as they do given their O-line woes. Now they’ve lost Willie Colon for the season. Maurice Pouncey will help, but they’re looking at another 50 sack season. Fantasy impact: negligible.
27. Buffalo Bills – They had a very solid 4.4 YPC last season and their rush blocking should remain the same. Good news for Jackson, Lynch and Spiller. They allowed 46 sacks, and their pass rush will be abysmal again without a legit QB to protect. Fantasy impact: negligible.
28. Chicago Bears – new offensive coordinator Mike Martz will have his hands full with this O-line supporting him. Nothing exciting here, and limited depth. Fantasy impact: negligible.
29. Detroit Lions – No real changes here. The addition of Sims help, but they have no depth. Overall they are mediocre. Fantasy impact: negligible.
30. Oakland Raiders - The same starters who gave up 49 sacks last season return in 2010. The only real hope of improving on their stats is stronger QB play with Jason Campbell under center. Fantasy impact: negligible.
31. San Diego Chargers - The Chargers had the worst rush blocking in the league last season at 3.3 YPC, and it doesn’t look hopeful for a big turn around. The pass protection gets hurt too with McNeil holding out, and Vincent Jackson out. Fantasy Impact: Be cautious with drafting Ryan Mathews too high.
32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – The Bucs don’t have a terrible O-line, but they have a rookie QB, and the team as a whole is in a growing phase. They should be about the same as last season, which is last. Fantasy impact: negligible.

Driver has been dealing with the recovery process of his surgically repaired knees; a process—among other issues— that may wind up hindering his overall production as a receiver and reduce his overall fantasy value.

Earlier this year, I took a look at the Green Bay Packers Fantasy Projections, and believed that Driver was ready for another quality season once the knees healed.

Now I am not so sure.

Here’s  the latest Driver update…(ok, it’s a horrible joke for those who get it, but in my defense it was totally unintentional).

The Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel is reporting that Packers’ Offensive Coordinator Joe Philbin now admits Driver’s knees are a concern.

“Obviously, we have to see what happens with Driver’s knee when he comes back,” says Philbin. “…I haven’t seen him do anything since January 10.”

Driver is currently being drafted 31st off the WR board, and 100th overall, but it appears that may even be too high of a draft slot.

Driver averaged around 60 snaps per game last year (equating to 70 receptions, 1,061 yards and 6 TDs), but it appears the chances of that happening again are getting slimmer by the month, thanks to ongoing concerns about those surgically repaired knees.

Not to mention, at 35 -years-old, Driver’s wheels have logged a lot of mileage heading into his 12th season.

For those of you who were high on Driver—like myself initially—now would be the time to replace him in your rankings, and don’t be surprised if you see Driver’s stock plummet over the next couple of months.

Reduced receptions equal reduced yards and scoring chances, which equates to nothing but headaches for all managers across the board. Another 1000 yard receiving season is just not likely. And there are plenty of high upside bargains out there who can offer you better value for the price tag they’ll be carrying.

In Green Bay, James Jones’ sleeper value could be on the rise, as well as that of Jordy Nelson, but you don’t have to be focused only the Packers WRs.

Here are five other options worthy of being raised in your WR rankings.

ADP courtesy MyFantasyLeague.com

Don’t misunderstand this bold statement. I love’s me some Polamalu. He’s one of the most exciting football players to watch. Seeing his hair spread out behind him like a mini-cape as he launches himself around the football field is truly a treat.

But Troy’s ability to ignite his team and inspire the Steeler’s defense does not necessarily make him a valuable IDP commodity.

Let’s go behind the numbers:

Current Defensive Back Ranking: 20 (based on a 16 game season)

Current ADP: FF Toolbox – 8th   ◆   MyFantasyLeague – 11th

Fans have a lot of faith in Polamalu to do something he’s never done before, which is end the season as a Top 10 IDP DB.

Over the last 5 seasons this is what Troy has done for fantasy owners:

2009 – He got off to a great start, but he got hurt and played only 5 games all season. He ended the year as the 167th best fantasy DB. If we extrapolate his numbers from these 5 games he’d have ended as the 10th best DB, but Polamalu has played in all 16 games only twice in the last half decade, including…

2008 – Troy stayed healthy and started all 16 games. His final fantasy DB rank? 21st

2007 – He managed only 11 games, and finished the season 109th overall.

2006 - Another incomplete season, with 13 games. His final fantasy DB rank: 48th

2005 – The only other complete 16 game season in his last five seasons. His fantasy ranking: 13th

There is a lot of expectation by IDP players that Troy can 1) stay healthy, and 2) finish with better fantasy numbers than he has ever done before.

Could it happen? Perhaps. If he can stay healthy (odds say he has a 40% chance at a full season). His team will spend more time on defense early on this year. Still the likelihood of him having his best fantasy season ever is not realistic.

Based on his current ADP and best-case anticipated performance, he will be a moderate fantasy bust IF he plays all 16 games.

Heads up. Don't sleep on Jones.

The Green Bay Packers offer a formidable offense for fantasy owners on the hunt for talent. They ranked 3rd in points per game (28.8) and 7th in passing yards (261.2). Impressive numbers, but many experts think the Pack will continue to improve on those stats in 2010.

Let’s face it, Aaron Rodgers has a lot of love to airmail around the field, Jermichael Finley, Greg Jennings and Donald Driver can’t soak it all up. Ryan Grant’s not much of a pass-catching running back, so there has to be a fantasy sleeper lurking in the depths of the Green Bay Packers receiving corp. My money is on James Jones.

I think there are several reasons why Jones is a lock as a 2010 fantasy football sleeper candidate.

James Jones, WR – Green Bay Packers

ADP: 238th – 71st WR selected

By the numbers:

• Last season Driver and Jennings averaged 115 targets, 69 reception, 1087 yards and 5 TDs each as the team’s starters. Jones, in limited action, had 5 TDs on 440 yards. I currently have the three ranked 12th, 26th and 68th. But I believe Driver may slip down as Jones slides up.
• My faith in Jones ability to do more in 2010 has as much to do with his youth (26) and talent as it does with Driver’s age (36) and health questions. Driver had both knees scoped this off-season. While he was rehabbing those knees, Jones saw extensive time in the slot during the Pack’s OTA’s where he impressed coaches and team mates. Driver’s been a model of consistency the last half decade or so, but I think the drop-off begins in 2010, and we start to see more of Jones.
• In 2009, Jones was targeted 63 times, but he only caught 32 passes. basically 50%. In his third season Jones had a bad case of the dropsies. He was dropping 22% of the passes thrown his way– 2nd worst in the league. I expect him to correct that this season and get up to a 70-75% target to reception ration. Had he met that ratio last season he would have tacked on an extra 200 yards with his 13.75 per catch average.
• Jones is playing for a new contract as he becomes a free agent after the 2010 season.

Summary: Jones seems to have the upper hand at the third receiver slot, which is an open battle with the equally talented Jordy Nelson. Nelson has the better physical attributes, size and speed, but Jones is approaching that magic number, 27 years of age. This is a battle to watch this off-season, but one of the two will break out. I like Nelson long term, but in 2010 I think Jones is the man. Driver’s being drafted too high for his likely production this season, and Jones could put up 700-800 yards with 6 TDs. Not a great distance from what Driver is likely to achieve.

ADP taken from our friends at MyFantasyLeague.com

New England Patriots 2010 Fantasy Football Draft Targets

Quarterback

With the concerns over his knee in the past, Tom Brady needs to step up his production to keep the Pats atop the AFC East

Tom Brady: Despite his stalling contract negotiations, Tom Brady will still be a top 10 QB pick in any fantasy draft. Every year he puts up gaudy numbers, although I doubt he will ever be able to reach to 50-TD pinnacle he set in ’07. Everyone always says that an ACL tear takes two years to fully recover from. Well, this is year two so we should expect big things from number 12. Last year he put up his second highest touchdown total with 28 as well as completing over 67% of his passes for 4,398 yards. Those are solid numbers no matter which way you look at them, and as long as he can stay healthy his numbers will hover around the same area this year, especially with the addition of Torry Holt as an outlet man and the ascension of Julien Edelman as a solid slot receiver. While Brady won’t be the top scoring QB in the fantasy world, he is still a top 10 QB pick and is poised to have another big year.

Running Back

One thing the New England Patriots have never had is a marquee running back – unless you count Curtis Martin. They have been the poster child for running back by committee. Everyone had high hopes for Laurence Maroney to be the man right out of Minnesota, and he has moments of brilliance down the stretch last year posting 9 touchdowns, but he has been injury prone and had serious issues holding onto the football. The veterans Fred Taylor, Sammy Morris, and Kevin Faulk are always present but no one guy has ever been able to take hold of the position so look for the Pats to continue attacking on first and second down primarily with Morris or Maroney and Kevin Faulk continuing to be a stud on third down passing situations. Individually it is extremely difficult to recommend any one player as a starting RB in your fantasy league, but as a Bye Week filler pick a name out of a hat and they could produce some decent numbers in a more balanced Patriot offense in 2010.

Wide Receiver

Randy Moss: The ever present down field threat for the Patriots. While his numbers have tapered over the past two seasons (as if 13 receiving TDs is a bad thing), he is still Tom Brady’s primary downfield and red zone target. Look for Moss to have a big first half while Wes Welker gets back to full strength and continue his streak of double digit TD, 1,000+ yd seasons in a Patriot uniform.

Until Wes Welker is able to return to full strength the Patriots need someone to step up and fill the gap

Wes Welker/Torry Holt/Julien Edelman: Any one of these guys could be huge this year for the Patriots, but it is too soon to tell about Welker’s knee, Holts durability at this stage of his career, and Edelman’s development as a slot receiver. Holt will definitely fill the secondary receiver hole that has lacking in the Patriots offense and will get his touches no matter what, but to what extent with Moss on the other side? Edelman showed flashes of what he can do down the stretch and in the playoffs last season and could be a solid fantasy performer as a yards after the catch guy and a speedy return man.

Tight End

Alge Crumpler: Big veteran guy who is a superior blocker than he is receiver. A lot of us remember him as Michael Vick’s favorite target in Atlanta but he has sort of devolved out of the passing game over the past few years in Atlanta and seldom used at all last season in Tennessee. Not a great fantasy option in 2010, especially with the addition of these guys…

Rob Gronkowski/Aaron Hernandez: Both rookies in the Patriots camp, Gronkowski taken in the second round and Hernandez in the fourth, could be minor fantasy producers. Gronkowski is the most talented of the duo, but there are questions about his playing time due to recovering from back surgery last season and the addition of Hernandez just two rounds later in the draft. They both have similar skill sets down the field and can block along the line, but one has to remember that the Pats ranked 28^th in the league in catches by tight ends, and with Alge in the mix it is hard to imagine one of these guys making a major impact over any of the others.

Defense

Jerod Mayo and co. need to step up the defensive pressure in 2010

Instead of trying to rebuild through free agency, Belichick and Co. decided to lock down the guys that they have confidence in and utilize the draft to inject some youth into their defensive unit. The biggest question in the offseason was the linebacker position. Right now the Patriots have one stud, Jerrod Mayo, and one attacking linebacker in Tully Banta-Cain that they hope and pray can repeat the season he had last year when he recorded 9.5 sacks. In the Base 3-4 they are going to need someone else to step up and they are hoping one of their rookies, Brandon Spikes or Jermaine Cunningham, will be able to plug that hole. Overall the Patriots may not be the best defensive unit in the league, but they remain solid every year. They do not give up a ton of points (5^th), rushing yards (13^th), or the big play down the field (12^th in p. yds/g), but they also do not score a whole lot in terms of fantasy points with 28 total takeaways in 2009. They are a well rounded unit and with a bit more youth and experience in this year’s line up they will continue to be solid, but do not expect them to shut teams out on a weekly basis.

Schedule

Wk Date Opponent

1 Sun, Sept 12^th Cincinnati Bengals

2 Sun, Sept 19^th @ New York Jets

3 Sun, Sept 26^th Buffalo Bills

4 Mon, Oct 4^th @ Miami Dolphins

5 BYE WEEK

6 Sun, Oct 17^th Baltimore Ravens

7 Sun, Oct 24^th @ San Diego Chargers

8 Sun, Oct 31^st Minnesota Vikings

9 Sun, Nov 7^th @ Cleveland Browns

10 Sun, Nov 14^th @ Pittsburgh Steelers

11 Sun, Nov 21^st Indianapolis Colts

12 Thurs, Nov 25^th @ Detroit Lions

13 Mon, Dec 6^th New York Jets

14 Sun, Dec 12^th @ Chicago Bears

15 Sun, Dec 19^th Green Bay Packers

16 Sun, Dec 26^th @ Buffalo Bills

17 Sun, Jan 2^nd Miami Dolphins

Nightmare of a schedule. Not only is the AFC East as good as it has been in ages, the Pats have to take on the defending AFC champion Colts and NFC title contender Vikings. The Patriots are still the class of the AFC East and until someone knocks them off that pedestal I think they will again reign supreme. There are no major ego issues, besides Logan Mankins, and instead of blitzing free agents the Pats locked down their big guys and built chemistry. The Patriots will win the AFC East with an 11-5 record with key victories over the Chargers, Packers and securing their title in the season finale against the Dolphins.

Coaching Strategy

Offense

Laurence Maroney and the Patriots running game could be the key to a deep playoff run

The Patriots offense has potential to be one of the best in the league every year, and this

year will be no different. We all know what we are going to get from their downfield passing game, because it will be Moss, Moss, and more Moss with a dash of Holt, but this year the Patriots have developed multiple weapons to work underneath. The mighty whitey duo of Welker and Edelman could be a force to be reckoned with as they both have speed, solid hands and are great after the catch. The big question will be the running game and the effectiveness of their veterans in the backfield. More than likely the Patriots will revert to the slant and screen passing game that is an extension of their running game to keep defenses honest, and pound the ball with Sammy Morris and Laurence Maroney at the goal line and in short yardage situations. I expect big things, but they need to establish some sort of effective running attack to open up those spaces underneath and get Moss in single coverage on the outside.

Defense

Defensively the Patriots need to step up their aggressive play. When they attacked the quarterback effectively last season it took the pressure off of their offense to win games. With the added youth and depth at linebacker, the aforementioned Spikes and Cunningham, to help Vince Wilfork up front against the run and up and coming safety Patrick Chung alongside Brandon Meriweather, the Patriots defensive unit has the ability to bring a lot more pressure without sacrificing anything over the top. The litmus test for this unit is how they hold up against the run heavy offenses of the AFC East facing the Jets and Dolphins twice a year. If they can show some resolve against those guys and force their young quarterbacks to go to the air more than they would like they will definitely have the success that we expect from such a quality team.