The second half of our fantasy season is now underway. As we kick into full swing, Jared Allen leads off the Week 8 IDP DL Rankings at the top. He has been otherworldly so far with over 10 sacks in the first seven games. He is on a ridiculous pace and is showing no signs of slowing down.

This week we also have a good chance to welcome back Trent Cole. Cole has been out for the past few weeks, but has begun to practice and looks to finally be over his calf injury. He has a nice matchup against Doug Free this week as he comes back.

As is the case each year, Dwight Freeney continues to be up and down. I am benching him this week as he draws a tough matchup with Michael Roos. Robert Mathis is also struggling as the Colts fail to jump out to leads and let these guys rush the passer with the wreckless abandon that they are accustomed to. I would have no problem benching both Indy DEs if I have viable alternatives.

As we come into Week 6, we are starting to see a few things clearly. Firstly, Osi Umenyiora is already in mid-season form. His first two games back have been exceptional and with Justin Tuck still nursing multiple injuries, Osi still seems primed for his big numbers. He has drawn some great man-to-man opportunities thanks to the stellar play of Jason Pierre-Paul. JPP is rivaling Jared Allen for top-DL honors so far and he does not show any signs of slowing down.

One big question heading into this week will be the health of Julius Peppers. He suffered a knee injury last night against the Lions and when he returned he did not seem to be himself. Monitor the injury reports to see how he does this week. He has a juicy matchup against Minnesota and Charlie Johnson. If Peppers can go and is anywhere near 100 percent then he will get bumped into the top-3 this week. For now he is only ranked 6th in our Week 6 IDP Defensive Linemen Rankings and he may fall lower.

For today, I am going to highlight a few players flying below the radar that might deserve a start in IDP leagues while also identifying a few big names that may underperform. Make no mistake, just because I say to “sit” a guy, does not mean to plant him on your bench if you do not have a better options. Most of the guys in the “sit” area were drafted early and you drafted them for a reason. I am just suggesting that they may not perform to the level the IDP community expects them to perform at this first week.

 START

JJ Watt (vs. IND)- The rookie has a nice matchup here. First off, he will likely be facing a brand new Indy offensive line. Joe Reitz and Anthony Castonzo will be in there on the left side and Jeff Linkenbach will be lining up at RT on the right side. Both sides of the line will need to keep an eye on Mario Williams, Brooks Reed and Conner Barwin as pass rushers. Watt has a chance to rack up tackles against the run and is a sneaky bet for a sack if the statue that is known as Kerry Collins starts for Indy as predicted.

Wesley Woodard (vs. OAK)- The WILL LB in Denver’s system is usually the one puts up big tackle numbers in the 4-3 historically. Even when they ran the 3-4, it was the WILB that produced the most. This spot is manned by DJ Williams and he finishes amongst the top-20 LBs yearly. Williams, however, is out for the first few weeks. In steps Wesley Woodyard. I always loved Woodyard’s talents, but he has never stuck as a starting LB in Denver. Now is his time to shine. He should fly around and make plays and is a good bet to lead the team in tackles while defenses focus on Von Miller’s pass rushing and Woodyard beats Joe Mays to most plays.

Donald Butler (vs. MIN)- Butler is primed for a big opening day. He has been solid in racking up tackles so far this preseason and he is likely to see less blockers on him then Takeo Spikes is (with Spikes playing SILB). Minnesota’s O-line is absolutely terrible and we know that they will still run Adrian Peterson all day. Butler has a good chance for 8+ tackles this week and is a sneaky start.

Morgan Burnett (vs. NO)- NO will throw and throw and throw some more. Burnett is off many people’s radar since he missed so much time last year. He has not been blowing it up enough this preseason to make people take notice either. He should have a great chance to help in run support and will have a lot of chances for tackles in the back end of that defense against the pas-happy Saints.

SIT

Jared Allen (vs. SD)- Allen is too good to sit in many leagues. However, this “sit” recommendation is here because I think he is going to see a ridiculous amount of attention this game. With Kevin Williams out with his StarCaps suspension, Pat Williams gone, and Ray Edwards now in Atlanta, there really isn’t anyone that SD has to worry about pestering Philip Rivers other then Allen. Expect him to see constant double- and maybe triple-teams. He should put up less than he usually does in this one.

Jonathan Velma (vs. GB)- Last year the Packers were a “middle of the pack” team in terms of points allowed to LBs. Expect more of the same this year. The Packers O-line is solid and deep and they will fling the ball around through the air a lot. For those reasons, I expect Vilma to have a less than stellar game and tally less than 6 tackles in this one.

Mason Foster (vs. DET)- Foster is expected to start out by being eased in little by little. He is unlikely to play on passing downs, and the Lions will likely throw the ball more than they will run it. For that reason, I am leaving Foster on my bench in week one until I see what he can do.

Donte Whitner (vs. Sea)- Last year, the Seahawks allowed the 31^st most points to safeties. That is to say that they did not allow opposing safeties to score much against them. Expect more of the same this year. Seattle will not have the ball on offense long enough and will not sustain drives enough to allow for big tackle opportunities. Tarvaris Jackson will likely throw some interceptions, but he will not complete enough passes for big tackle numbers in the secondary. Whitner will not need to be in the box as much and even if he is he will have to fight Patrick Willis and NaVarro Bowman for tackles. I am staying away this week.

Reggie's best fantasy days are behind him.

We’ve been talking an awful lot about sleepers the last month, and we’ve mentioned some overvalued players in our over/under series, but in recent drafts a few names keep popping up that shouldn’t be.

As important as it is to know who to draft and when, it’s equally important to avoid fantasy landmines– guys who will leave craters in your fantasy production.

Last season I caught all sorts of flak for my preseason article declaring Michael Turner a bust. He certainly didn’t perform close to the second overall pick which is where he was being drafted. Being a bust is about not performing close to the value of where a player is picked. They need not be dreadful, just significantly under-performing their draft slot.

So below we have a list of some of this season’s likely busts, based on current ADP. In other words, unless they really slip, you don’t want them on your roster in 2010.

1. DeAngelo Williams, RB, CAR ~ Williams remains tethered to the top 10 RB listings based solely on his monster 2008 season. With Jonathan Stewart on the field, Williams is not likely to see those numbers again. 2008 was the exception, not the rule. He’s currently going in the second round, but his likely output is 4th round. Stewart will likely perform as well and he’s going in the 5th/6th rounds. Alternatives: Ryan Mathews, Shonne Green or Ryan Grant.
2. CJ Spiller, RB, BUF ~ Spiller is a serious talent, but he’s not an every down back, and he’s being drafted ahead of his team’s starter. If you can get him in the 8th round or later, you should find value, but if you’re in a standard redraft league (not a keeper) then taking him in the 5th/6th rounds is likely to be a costly waste of a high draft pick. Alternatives: Felix Jones, Ahmad Bradshaw, Arian Foster, or here’s a thought, Fred Jackson.
3. Reggie Bush, RB, NOS ~ You pretty much know what you’re going to get with Reggie; about a 35th place RB finish. Yet every season he’s drafted around 10 spots and 6-10 rounds too early. This season he’s going two picks after CJ Spiller above. He is a massive fantasy bust at this price. Alternatives: Felix Jones, Ahmad Bradshaw, Arian Foster, or Michael Bush
4. DeSean Jackson, WR, PHI ~ There is no doubt that DJ has skills, but I believe last season we saw him at his best. Many are expecting him to get into the 80-100 reception range, but he’s more TD dependent than most top receivers. His 63 receptions in 2009 is more likely his ceiling than his starting point. He is being overvalued and going a good 2 rounds earlier than his performance level, especially in PPR leagues. Alternatives: Greg Jennings, Marques Colston or either Steve Smith.
5. Kenny Britt, WR, TEN ~ People are just in love with this kid despite the fact that he’s done nothing to merit any of their faith. He’s been so bad this summer that he’s barely got a grasp on the WR3 slot, yet he’s being drafted ahead of many WR1 players. According to the Nashville Tennessean, Titans coach Jeff Fisher threatened Friday to deactivate Britt on game days if he doesn’t get his head on straight mentally.
   “If I suspect there’s issues, he is not part of the 45 (-man roster),” said Fisher. “…If I suspect there would be a problem, we have other receivers I’ll play instead of Kenny.” Alternatives: Bernard Berrian, Jabar Gaffney, Mohamed Massaquoi, Louis Murphy or either Mike Williams.
6. Jets Defense ~ The Jets defense has been the consistent pick for D/ST taken in drafts, and as good as they are on the field, it doesn’t translate to fantasy fortunes. They limit scoring but don’t make a lot of big plays. And now they start the season without Darrelle Revis. But with or without Revis they are not one of the top 3 fantasy defenses. I currently have them ranked 4th, and they may still be generous. Alternatives: Philadelphia Eagles, Minnesota Vikings or Green Bay Packers.

And for you IDP players, here’s a 6-pack just for you…

1. Troy Polamalu, DB,  PIT ~ I love Polamalu, and now he’s insured his hair for a million dollars. You can’t help but dig this guy. But for fantasy purposes, his image overrides his fantasy value. He’s currently the 6th DB drafted in most leagues and in 10-12 team leagues he’s not even worth drafting. In deeper leagues he’s a DB3/4 at best. Alternatives: Our DB Rankings can give you a number of better options.
2. Darrelle Revis, DB, NYJ ~ Let’s forget for a moment that Revis isn’t even planning on playing in 2010 at this point, even if he were his current ADP of 9th among DBs is sheer insanity. When I had him ranked he was just outside the top 30, now he’s off the board. Like Polamalu above, people are paying for the name, not the fantasy production. See the rankings link above for alternatives. Update: Just hours after writing this Revis ended his hold-out, but nothing changes. He’s still a major bust as a top 10 DB fantasy pick.
3. Louis Delmas, DB, DET ~ This is more gut instinct than anything else, but I simply don’t trust Delmas, and i think he’ll be a bust this season. he may even give way to Aaron Spievey at some point if he can’t stay healthy. I think there are safer picks to be had who will put up equal to or better numbers. Alternatives: Tanard Jackson, Antoine Winfield, Antoine Bethea, or my sleeper pick, Kenny Phillips.
4. Brian Cushing, LB, HOU ~ I think Cushing is a stud, but in 2010 he’s missing a quarter of the season to suspension for steriod use. So you only get 3 quarters of a season with a guy who’s no longer pumped on steroids, and who will be out of sync with the team. As well, he also plays on the strong side which is the weakest for fantasy production. Cushing’s numbers are more dependent on big plays than most LBs. For all these reasons I’m letting someone else pay his freight this season. Even if you really believe in him, he’s still not worth a 13th round pick when there are still numerous LBs who can give you close to 100 solo tackles. Alternatives: Our LB Rankings can give you a number of better options.
5. Ndamukong Suh, DL, DET ~ A boy named Suh is on the fantasy radar of every new IDP player who is as yet non-savvy in the ways of the game. He is currently the 12th defensive lineman being drafted and the first defensive tackles. Here are some reasons way Suh is a fantasy bust. 1) He plays tackle, not defensive end. Tackles rarely put up fantasy viable numbers. 2) He’s a rookie, and rookie linemen rarely flourish in their first year, especially defensive tackles. 3) At his position with his team’s defensive scheme, he will be lucky to put up 20 tackles and more than 3 sacks.  Alternatives: Our DL Rankings can give you a number of better options.
6. Dwight Freeney, DL, IND ~ I must be insane. This guy had 13.5 sacks last season. Second only to Jared Allen among linemen. This is true. Still Freeney only had half the fantasy points of Allen, primarily because he doesn’t get many tackles. While Allen was the leagues top scoring DL, Freeney was 15th. He’s being drafted a good 6 – 7 rounds earlier than he should be. He will likely get around 25 solo tackles and 9-10 sacks, if healthy. Alternatives: Aaron Kampman, Darnell Dockett,  Robert Mathis or Justin Smith.

Underrated or Over Inflated?

In fantasy sports we talk a lot about “Sleepers and Busts,” but more often than not, what we are talking about are players who are either overvalued or undervalued. Guys who are being drafted too soon or too late in drafts relative to their likely fantasy production.

Welcome to the first in our preseason over and under articles. If you play in leagues that use Individual Defensive Players (IDP) then you already know that the Defensive Lineman position is the hardest to fill: too few top end performers, too few surprise performers each season.

In 2009, only 7 DL’s had double-digit sacks, and over the last decade the trend has been a dozen players or less with 10 or more sacks. There’s no reason to believe that won’t hold true in 2010.

The sack is the hallmark of the fantasy Defensive Lineman. Of the 7 who hit double-digit sacks last year, 6 of them were the top scorers at DL. The lone exception was Dwight Freeney who somehow managed an amazing 13.5 sacks in only 9 starts.

With all of this in mind let’s take a look at guys not named Jared Allen, Justin Tuck, Julius Peppers or Trent Cole who may surprise or disappoint in 2010.

Here are 5 over and 5 under, Defensive Linemen heading into 2010:

–Undervalued–

Calais Campbell, ARI – Campbell was a nice surprise in 2009, with 6.5 sacks lined up alongside Darnell Dockett. This kid is a beast at 6-foot-8. His size is among many reasons why I believe the third year DL will breakout in 2010.  Campbell could very will have had 10+ sacks in 2009, but he let several quarterbacks slip from his grasp, and he’s said that still weighs on him. A good sign. The Cardinals also added first round nose tackle Dan Williams which boosts Campbell’s value. The Cardinal have a friendly schedule this year, and they will spend more time on defense with Kurt Warner and Anquan Boldin gone.  A healthy Campbell should see 50 tackles and 10+ sacks. Bank it.

Justin Smith, SF – I have Smith ranked as the 13th best defensive lineman heading into 2010. Coincidentally that was his final resting spot in 2009. In 2008, he finished 8th best. Despite that, he is being drafted around 10 picks later than his numbers warrant. Smith averages about 6 sacks a season and 40+ solo tackles. He is a very dependable DE in terms of performance, just like…

Alex Brown, NOS – Brown hits N’awlins from Chitown this season. He’s always been a guy who flies under the fantasy radar despite being a model of fantasy consistency; averaging 6 sacks per season, and an average fantasy finish of 24th over the last 5 seasons. He’s being drafted 30th overall, but aside from his historical 24th place average, Brown’s peripheral numbers trend upward in even numbered years (he ranked 18 and 14th in 2008 and 2006). Wink, wink: it’s an even numbered year. He’s now on a team better suited to fantasy production at his position. All signs point to an above average season, but even at his average, he’s undervalued.

Tyler Brayton, CAR – Brayton is one of two undervalued Panthers defensive ends. In a part time role for Carolina, he finished 2009 with 5 sacks, and ranked 28th overall in fantasy points for his position. Three spots ahead of Alex Brown, above. He finished 40th overall in 2008, and had 4.5 sacks. The departure of Julius Peppers to the Chicago Bears should mean more playing time. Right now he’s not even being selected in fantasy drafts.

Charles Johnson, CAR - While all eyes are on Everette Brown in Carolina, Johnson is the likely starter with Brown (in the words of our friend, Ryan Sitzmann at IDPGuru.com) focusing “on a nickel rushing role,” and “replacing Tyler Brayton on passing downs.” This gives the Panthers and fantasy owners a nice trio of rotating defensive ends, with Brayton and Johnson being undervalued and Brown…

–Overvalued–

Everette Brown, CAR – Brown is going to be a solid fantasy performer, perhaps starting as early as 2011. But as he enters his sophomore 2010 season, he doesn’t even have the starting DE job for the Carolina Panthers. He could win it outright before all is said and done, but at the moment it looks like he’ll only play in selected packages. Yet, he’s the 15th DL off the board–that’s like a Dwight Freeney price tag. That’s price gouging even if he does get the starting nod.

Ndamukong Suh, DET – Suh is going to be an awesome addition to the Detroit Lions defensive line. He’s going to be one of the NFL’s best defensive tackles for years to come. So far in early drafts he’s being selected as the 11th defensive linemen overall. How overvalued is he? He doesn’t even rank in the Top 50 fantasy DLs. Fantasy owners are jumping on his high draft selection and drooling over the thought of the next Jared Allen. Wrong answer. First, he’s a rookie. Rookie lineman take at least one season to truly get the hang of the game at this level. Second, he’s a defensive tackle. He’s the guy that holds up the offensive linemen so his defensive ends (Cliff Avril, Kyle Vandenbosch) can slip through and hopefully sack the quarterback. DT’s are generally fantasy black holes. Last season only two even scored in the top 25: Jonathan Babineaux (17th) and Jay Ratliff (20th). So don’t be the guy that buys the big name rookie to watch him stink up your fantasy bench. Bonus Bust: Gerald McCoy, TB– Another rookie defensive tackle who should not be drafted.

Hayneworth could walk away from Washington

Derrick Morgan, TEN – Morgan offers a lot of promise as a fantasy DE…in a season or two. See Suh above about the rookie learning curve. Unlike Suh, Morgan is a defensive end, meaning he will score points. I currently have him ranked 49th at his position. However, he’s being drafted immediately after Suh, as the 12th DE off the board. On a good day that’s at least 30 DEs too early. Bonus Bust: Jason Pierre-Paul, NYG — A rookie like Morgan, though not as skilled and not guaranteed a starting job in 2010.

Albert Haynesworth, WAS – The big man is being snagged 34th at the DL position. he had one notable fantasy season in 2008 with the Tennessee Titans, but he’s a DT, so his opportunities are limited, and he has not fared well in Washington. Add to that a defensive scheme change for the Redskins from 4-3 to 3-4, and that spells fantasy disaster. Let someone else buy the name.

Dwight Freeney, IND - Speak of the devil. Freeney had 13.5 sacks last season, but I’m calling him overvalued? The 30 year -old DE has started all 16 games only twice in 8 seasons– and not since 2006. Despite his sweet sack total in 2010, he ranked at 20th best for his position. In 2008, also 20th. 2007, 80th. And 2006, his last full season, 54th. He hasn’t had a top 10 finish since 2005, when he ranked 9th. Yet his Defensive Lineman ADP is 14th. You’re paying for the name, when it’s production you want to pay for.

Defense:

The Mullet Mullitia

The focus of the 2009 Minnesota Vikings defense was asserting their dominance at the line of scrimmage, is there any reason why that should change in 2010?  Absolutely not!  Why make any changes when what you’ve got is just oh so sweet.  Instead of dipping into the free agent market, or going after unproven draft picks, the Vikings simply made sure that they kept their core intact and do their best to simply build around that nucleus.  Much of their season depends upon that core providing the same amount of pressure intensity that stems primarily from one man … the man with the mullet … the man hailing from the Culinary Academy?  Yes, that man, Jared Allen.  Allen is the key to their success, because he is hands down the emotional leader on the defensive side of the ball, but more than that he is a ridiculous speed rusher with a wicked knack for hitting the quarterback.  He alone provided the Vikings with 14.5 sacks for 98 yards lost and 5 forced fumbles in 2009.  The Vikings talented defensive line doesn’t stop there, because, while you have to deal with Allen on one end, you still have to account for the two Williams’, Kevin and Pat, clogging the middle and the still-developing Ray Edwards on the opposite end.  With the Williams’ cramming 627 lbs of pure manhood in the middle of the field offensive coordinators are left with the conundrum of where exactly they are supposed to run the ball.  The speed of Allen and Edwards on the outside only compounds the issue, because they both have the speed and savvy to hedge running backs inside and let the big boys go to work, which is further illustrated by the fact that they ranked 2nd in the league against the rush giving up a measly 87.1 yds/g, trailing only the Jets.

The biggest question mark this off-season for the Vikings was, and continues to be, their secondary.  One would figure that since the defensive line stuffs the run and rushes the quarterback so effectively that the secondary would consistently be scavenging rushed, errant, passes with relative ease, but that wasn’t the case.  In 2009, the Vikes secondary was ranked 19^th overall against the pass and 26th in interceptions, with a mere 11 total and only 7 by the secondary.  Even more embarrassing was allowing Drew Brees to throw for 310 yards, 3 touchdowns and a 106.5 QB rating in the NFC Championship.  If the Vikings plan on making a run at the Super Bowl this year, this is where the improvement needs to come from.  Fortunately they’ve begun to really address the issue hitting the free agent market and adding veteran corner Lito Sheppard to their squad, which helps a bit, but still leaves a lot of youth and uncertainty out there.  In the past I would say that the Vikings have themselves in an ideal situation, because they have an excess of youth in their secondary, with seven players in their rotation with 5 years or less of NFL experience, and a lot of guys who came out of college with big “upside,” but at what point do they get tired of waiting for that to pay off?  This year has the potential to reap those benefits and I think Brad Childress realizes this, hence the signing of Sheppard, which adds another veteran presence alongside Antoine Winfield and Madieu Williams. Childress is hoping they can provide the leadership that was lacking last season, with Winfield missing six games due to injury, and help speed up the maturation process of their young guns, Asher Allen, Jamarca Sanford, and Husain Abdullah.

Offense:

Favre's return, and health, will be a major factor in the Vikings success

Be aware that I am writing this under the guise that Brett Favre will be returning as we all know he will.  Statistically speaking, there is no reason for Favre to retire right now.  His stat line from 2009 reads like this: 4,202 yds, 33 TDs, 68.4% Completions, a QB rating of 107.3, and only 7 interceptions.  That line would make most quarterbacks in the league envious, especially Tavaris Jackson and Sage Rosenfels, who will once again be passed over and forced to wait in the wings to takeover the reins of the Vikings offense.  I still can’t put my finger on whether Favre’s performance last season was a statistical anomaly or he simply figured out that his notorious “gunslinger” approach was just not cutting it anymore.  Either way, whatever he was doing in Brad Childress’ system worked, and when he comes back it will continue to work, as long as he plays within his means, and by “means” I’m talking about playing the short game, getting the ball to his explosive playmakers – Adrian Peterson, Sidney Rice and Percy Harvin – and letting them do the work for him.   If Favre can contain himself, he can still do great things with the ball and will put up solid numbers. When in doubt, he can simply hand the ball off to arguably the best all-around back in the game.

While much of the focus this off-season will be focused on Favre’s pseudo indecision, it is all the weapons around him that truly make the Vikings offense as potent as it is.  We all know what Adrian Peterson can do, and he is an absolute beast with the ball in his hands, when he keeps it in his hands.  He makes any quarterbacks job simple, you hand him the ball, sit back, relax, and enjoy the show.  He will demand his touches and he will get them.  They simply cannot afford not to because he makes their whole scheme work.  Although AP may not have had as productive a season in terms of yards as he did the year before, 1,760 yds in 2008 and 1,383 yds in 2009, he still found a way to make it into the end zone 18 times.  That shows that the coaching staff has the confidence in him to get it done at the goal line and assert his dominance.  The biggest knocks on him has been his inability to hold onto the ball in key situations, a la Ricky Williams’ early career, and his inability to stay healthy.  While Peterson has always been the feature back of the Vikings, there has always been a failsafe in place in case he does get hurt in Chester Taylor, but that is no more after Taylor was signed by the Bears this spring, leaving Peterson as the only quality back in their rotation.  This loss could potentially harm the Vikings because they now lose depth at the position and they also lose the dynamic element that Taylor provided out of the backfield as both a rusher and receiver.  The Vikings somewhat addressed the issue of depth in the draft when they took Toby Gerhart in the second round at 51st overall.  Gerhart has repeatedly asserted to the media that he is a running back, not a fullback, he has been saying it so much that he is starting to sound like Arnold Schwarzenegger in Kindergarten Cop (“It’s not a toomah”), but he remains untested at this level and a huge question mark going into training camp.

When Peterson isn’t running the ball, his mere presence still influences most aspects of the Vikings offense.  By simply standing in the backfield he forces the opposition to pack the box on every down and make linebackers stay compact and at home on every play.  By drawing the attention of the linebackers and forcing the line to keep their pass rush relatively conservative, it leaves a lot of space open on the outside for swing passes, wide receiver screens, and one on one coverage down the field.  This is why the Vikings had so much success throwing the ball last season and allowed for their receivers Percy Harvin and Sidney Rice to have breakout years.  While Harvin is used as the primary target on quick slants and screen passes because of his speed and agility off the line, ranked sixth in the league averaging 5.86 YAC, Rice has provides the Vikings with a franchise-type talent who has great hands that can attack down the field, with five 100+ yd receiving games and 8 TDs a year ago. Best of all, both of the aforementioned players are only 21 and 23 years old and are only get better as their careers progress.

Conclusion:

Adrian Peterson's fantasy value could be better than ever in 2010

What does this all mean? It means the Minnesota Vikings are going to be a statistical powerhouse again this year.  With an unrelenting front four on defense, who only seem to get better as the years go by, they will continue to put up gaudy sack numbers, especially since most offenses they play will continue to try to take advantage of their weak, but improving, secondary.  Look for Minnesota to lead the league in sacks reaching somewhere around 46 to 50, unless Jared Allen starts hitting the smelling salts a little extra hard this season, then he could hit 25 on his own. The secondary could still struggle a little bit, but not to the degree they did last year, with 13-15 INTs.  Having Favre back in the lineup again will be a great thing for the Vikings, but I really can‘t see him hitting the same numbers as last season.  His health remains to be a big question mark, and with that in mind, look for Childress to put the offensive load square on the shoulders of Adrian Peterson (look for 1,800 yds and 22 TDs in 2010), boosting his fantasy draft stock even more, as if he needs it.  I am tending to lean more and more towards last season being a fluke of sorts for Favre, but there won’t be an epic collapse in 2010, with him hitting his end zone targets around 25 times, totaling up 3.300-3,500 yds with Harvin and Rice as his primary targets, and hitting the opposition for 12-14 INTs.