Lots of questions heading into this week. Personally, I am keeping a specific eye on Branch. He is trying to help carry the back end of that secondary. Michael Huff is hurt, Matt Giordano stinks, and Branch should be stepping up. I have not lost hope in him yet. So far this year, Stanford Routt has been one of the best (if not THE best) CBs in terms of stopping completions from being made against him. I do not think this will continue. When it doesn’t, Branch will have even more tackle opportunities in the back end of that defense. Not to mention he will have many chances to play in the box and help against the run this week against a Jets team that will try to grind them down. For me, I say start Tyvon Branch. As for Landry, I expect him to do big things as soon as he is back on the field. However, look at what happened to Jon Beason when he rushed back from an Achilles injury. I have my doubts that Landry can stay on the field. For that reason, I am benching LaRon Landry until I see what he can do.

WEEK 3 DEFENSIVE BACK RANKINGS

Rank	Player	Vs.	Comments
1	Morgan Burnett	CHI	Has been amazing so far. Can he keep it up with Nick Collins gone and new responsibilities?
2	Tyvon Branch	NYJ	Has not had a great game yet, but should get a lot of tackles in this one
3	Roman Harper	HOU	Should see chances to help against the pass and the run
4	Kerry Rhodes	SEA
5	Donte Whitner	CIN	Will be in the box a lot this week
6	Yeremiah Bell	CLE
7	T.J. Ward	MIA
8	Eric Weddle	KC	Will help in run support and has a good chance to make Cassel pay for a mistake in this one
9	Michael Griffin	DEN
10	Quintin Mikell	BAL
11	Joe Haden	MIA
12	Charles Tillman	GB	Should see his fair share of plays come his way in this one
13	Dawan Landry	CAR
14	Kam Chancellor	AZ
15	Sean Jones	ATL
16	Troy Polamalu	IND
17	Antoine Winfield	DET	Lots of chances to make plays against the high flying DET offense
18	Jon McGraw	SD
19	Charles Woodson	CHI
20	Pat Chung	BUF	Surgery on his thumb. Might play but will have to wear a cast. A little bit risky this week
21	Brent Grimes	TB
22	George Wilson	NE
23	Brian Dawkins	TEN
24	Lardarius Webb	STL
25	LaRon Landry	DAL	Can he get back on the field this week? If so, can he stay on the field?
26	DeAngelo Hall	DAL
27	Eric Smith	OAK
28	Glover Quin	NO	Disappointing so far. Needs to rebound
29	Antrel Rolle	PHI
30	Adrian Wilson	SEA
31	Antoine Bethea	PIT	With Bullitt dinged up, Bethea will need to be all over the field in this one
32	Earl Thomas	AZ
33	Devin McCourty	BUF
34	Cortland Finnegan	DEN
35	Jerraud Powers	PIT
36	Sergio Brown	BUF	Buffalo will sling the ball around a whole lot and he will have to help out a beat up Chung
37	Craig Dahl	BAL
38	Jarius Byrd	NE
39	Louis Delmas	MIN
40	Patrick Peterson	SEA	Probably not many opportunities for tackles. Will have a chance for a turnover

Defensive Linemen

Jason Pierre-Paul- I have loved and touted this guy all off-season as a top-10 guy, but many leagues do not have him in starting lineups, particularly smaller leagues. I’ve seen comments from others questioning how good he will remain when Osi comes back healthy. Don’t worry. This kid is going to be the real deal all year long. Without Justin Tuck in the game, he received all the attention and double teams and still produced six tackles, two sacks and a forced fumble. Big ups to him. He no longer just has “potential.” He is now realizing that potential.

Greg Hardy- Hardy is young and still developing, but he had first round talent when he came out last year and then really was never in a position to realize his potential. Now he has a chance with Tyler Brayton and Everette Brown gone from town. He showed this week one with five tackles, a sack, a forced fumble and a pass defensed. He also is playing across from Charles Johnson and will likely see less attention because of it. He is a strong break-out candidate.

Henry Melton- I have grabbed Melton in every fantasy league I am in that requires a starting DT. He is replacing Tommie Harris as the 3-technique in the Chicago defense and he had one heck of a first game. Melton tallied five tackles and two sacks and in one game has almost matched last season’s output. Expect more of this from the talented third year DT.

Linebackers

Sean Lee- Lee has finally cracked the Dallas starting lineup and the future is now for the young potential star. He was all over the field last night and narrowly missed scoring a defensive touchdown off of an interception. Still, he racked up 12 tackles (10 solo) to go along with his interception, while Keith Brooking (four tackles) and Bradie James (zero tackles) showed no real competition for stats.

Dan Connor- It is looking like Jon Beason has likely torn his Achilles tendon and if done for the year. Enter Dan Connor. Connor collected six tackles in around a half of play and will be a very solid replacement for Beason for the rest of the year. He averaged around six tackles per start last year and should be better this go-around.

Pat Angerer- Angerer led the Colts with 13 tackles (nine solo) playing most of the game as the strong side linebacker in week one. Gary Brackett hurt his shoulder, however, and Angerer could see a bunch of time in the middle going forward. If so, his value shoots way up. The Colts looked dreadful on offense and this looks like the makings for a year in which the defense is on the field a lot. That bodes well for Angerer going forward.

Sean Weatherspoon- Weatherspoon has a chance to realize his potential this season and now that he is healthy he started doing so in week one. Weatherspoon had 10 tackles (nine solo) and a pass defensed in the loss to Chicago. The only issue with him is that he was chewed out for a dreadful tackling attempt against Matt Forte, where he didn’t even attempt to wrap him up and tried to just knock him out of bounds. Plays like that put you on the fast-track to the bench. As long as Weatherspoon corrects his mistakes and stays on the field he should remain a nice pickup and starting candidate.

Quincy Black- Black is no ordinary SLB. He is a 3-down LB and is just as solid in coverage as he is in run support. He did an admirable job in week one against Detroit by tallying eight tackles (seven solo) and a forced fumble. He will continue to have success as the Bucs groom Mason Foster for his full-time 3-down role going forward.

Erin Henderson- Erin had a great preseason, but I have to admit I did not expect it to continue on into the regular season. Well, I was wrong. Erin outdid his brother EJ as he gathered nine tackles and a sack to EJ’s four tackles. Erin even outperformed Chad Greenway, which is no small task. He could be a sneaky pickup and start going forward if he keeps this up.

Defensive Backs

Bryan Scott- Scott is an interesting IDPer this year. In the preseason, he was being used at safety and at linebacker. In week one, Scott saw some time at cornerback. Regardless of where they play him, he just seems to make plays. Against the Chiefs, he was able to compile nine tackles (all solo) and a sack. That’s the type of production that will keep him in the lineup going forward.

Kam Chancellor- I have to admit that I have not been a very big fan of Chancellor and I did not expect anything special out of him. Through one week, I am wrong. He outplayed Earl Thomas (although both had good games), and was able to collect 10 tackles (all solo) in the Seahawks’ loss. With the Seahawks D likely to be on the field a lot (thanks to their terrible offense), Chancellor will have many more opportunities to excel going forward. Just be aware that those tackle numbers could be a result of tackles made up the gut of the defense where the ‘Hawks were missing stud MLB David Hawthorne this week. Temper expectations going forward a bit when Hawthorne returns.

Reed Doughty- Doughty will remain a solid play as long as LaRon Landry remains out. Doughty has been good for 90+ tackles the past few years and he will have a lot of chances to keep racking up tackles for as long as Landry is out or hobbled. Achilles injuries have a history of lingering and Landry could be in trouble all year. If so, Doughty will reap the benefits.

Sean Jones- Jones should have no problem putting up numbers as the starting SS in Tampa. His week one performance (eight tackles, a forced fumble and a pass defensed) is a good first showing. With some inexperience in Tampa at the safety position and with questions still surrounding whether Tanard Jackson can return or not, Jones has a chance to lead the TB safeties now and going forward.  

For many of you out there that are not familiar with NEXFL, the NEXFL is the National Experts Fantasy League. It is a 32-team league that includes Offense and Individual Defensive Players (IDP) and only has one “copy” of a player. There are a few other 32-team leagues out there, but many have two “copies” of a player (i.e. two teams can own Adrian Peterson, etc.). That is not the case in NEXFL. This is not a league for the unseasoned or casual fantasy fan. The draft is 23 rounds and amounts to over 730 picks that are selected through an online draft over the span of approximately a month. The purpose of NEXFL is to establish a league that is unlike any other. The concept was originally developed by Ryan “The Warden” Houston and later enhanced by George “SpiGuy” Kerwood and now Tom “Tomdiggs” Digliani in the hopes of providing fantasy football enthusiasts with a much more difficult and challenging task: Represent an NFL team and create the ultimate Fantasy Football team with precious resources. Do you have what it takes to compete?

To take a look at the teams and rosters for this season, check out the league site:

http://www14.myfantasyleague.com/2011/home/44638

Now, here is my personal analysis of this year’s teams and projections. These are my opinions and mine alone as the commissioner and avid NEXFL enthusiast.

For those that want to take part next year, start studying up on your IDP and deep sleepers. Then follow the league from afar throughout the league and let me know your interest so I can place you on a waiting list for the 2012 season. The league usually has 6-8 vacancies that open up per year.

Without further ado, here’s the league as I see it through my crystal ball.

AFC East
1. Bills – The reigning AFC Champs return with another solid squad. Vlad looks to be forming the basis for being an annual contender now after breaking through to the playoffs for the first time last season. While Alex Smith will hurt him in a division filled with exceptional QBs, the Bills’ depth and strength at WR and LB will carry them. If Dez Bryant does not pan out or if Austin Collie gets hurt then they could be in trouble. I expect big things from both, however. D’Qwell Jackson and Jonathan Vilma will carry the D and will be helped a lot by Trent Cole and Morgan Burnett. The real player to watch for the Bills is Lance Kendricks. If he stands out during the year like he has this preseason then this team could be dangerous. If one of many risks goes awry they could fall out of the playoff picture. I want to predict a better record, but with all the risks and with Alex Smith I need to temper expectations. Prediction: 8-5

2. Dolphins – Jerm has once again put together a tough squad. Joe Flacco, Mike Thomas, and Wes Welker will help carry the offense. The D has some good players in Robert Mathis, Jon Beason and Kevin Burnett. Beason’s early season injury is one to watch. If he misses time it could doom the Dolphins’ chances out of the gate in the early divisional games. I see them being slightly off of the Bills in running for the division crown. Prediction: 7-6

3. Patriots – The Pats may have a new NEXFL owner this year, but they drafted well. Michael Vick will be the first piece that will help carry this offense. However, there is some serious offensive talent here in addition to Vick with Rashard Mendenhall, Pierre Garcon and Greg Olsen. Olsen could be a gem in this league. The defense has some nice balance with AJ Hawk, Daryl Smith and Devin McCourty leading the way. Depth is an issue. There isn’t much at DL and Paris Lenon and Keith Brooking may not be starting for their NFL teams for very long. A good, but not great rookie year for the Pats. Prediction: 5-8

4. Jets – Just like the NFL Colts; this team’s status relies on Peyton Manning’s health. Manning will run this offense with Michael Turner, but a lack of talent at WR and LB could possibly hurt this team. James Jones and Plaxico Burress need to step up to help this team. Jason Witten should remain a stud. The DBs may all be cornerbacks, but having Charles Tillman, Richard Marshall and DeAngelo Hall will help offset the lack of talent at LB. Clay Matthews and Tamba Hali really need big years to help this D out. Prediction: 4-9

Summary: This division went from being one of the deepest last year to being a little thin this year in my opinion. I only see one team coming out of this division into the playoffs. Currently everyone is chasing the Bills in my opinion.

AFC North
1. Browns – Wow what a difference a year makes. Dave went from a 5-8 owner last year to maybe assembling the best team in the NEXFL this year! Colt McCoy, Maurice Jones-Drew, DeSean Jackson, Steve Smith (Car), Braylon Edwards and Fred Davis make for a damn scary offense. The defense has some great LBs for a 32-team league in Nick Barnett, Stewart Bradley and Rocky McIntosh. Even the DBs have potential with Glover Quinn and William Moore leading the way. The only real weakness on this team is along the D-Line. There is not much there. Not a bad spot to be weak. I am not looking to facing them in week 8. Prediction: 10-3

2. Ravens – Yergs is in the running every single year and this is why. He just builds a ridiculously balanced team. Shonne Greene, Andre Johnson, Julio Jones and Brandon Pettigrew will make for a great base for the offense. His defense could be scary. Carlos Dunlap and Justin Tuck make for a great pairing at DL and they are filled in the starting lineup with Geno Hayes, Clint Session and Brandon Spikes. As long as the LBs can stay healthy (no small task with Spikes and Session already missing time), then this team will be in playoff contention. Prediction: 8-5

3. Bengals – Mike may be a new owner here, but his team turned out pretty well for his first NEXFL draft. Kevin Kolb will form a lethal one-two punch with Ray Rice on offense. If Dallas Clark stays healthy, he could be the best offensive player on the team. The WRs will decide how good this team can be. Nate Burleson, Michael Jenkins and Andre Roberts will all be NFL starters, but may not offer much punch in the box score. If they step up on offense, there is definitely enough on defense (Gary Brackett, Donald Butler, Cliff Avril, Patrick Peterson, and Antrel Rolle) to help buoy this team to the edge of playoff contention. Might be a bit tough in this division, however. Prediction: 6-7

4. Steelers – George is a seasoned vet of this league. I seemingly never like his teams and half the time I am right and half the time I am dead wrong. This year I am not high again. I love Matt Schaub and Matt Forte leading the offense and I like Todd Heap with how much Kevin Kolb has historically used the TE. The WRs are suspect though. If Steve Smith (Phi) and Eddie Royal can become decent fantasy contributors, then this team will prove me wrong. If they don’t the offense could be hurting a bit. Paul Posluszny and DeMeco Ryans will help carry the defense along with Dawan Landry. However, a lack of a third starting LB could hurt the overall production. Prediction: 3-10

Summary: This division might be close and is very good at the top. I do not like the fact that my AFC South division crosses over with this division this season. I definitely see two playoff teams coming out of this division. The Browns are the team to beat here and maybe in the AFC and entire NEXFL.

AFC South
1. Colts – Just as I said last year, some people do not rate their own teams. I say that is a cop-out! I have no problem addressing the likes and dislikes of my own team. I love my starting WRs, TEs and LBs. Last year I was 10-0 with Matt Hasselbeck as my QB. This was with him having less explosive options, less of an O-Line and less of a running game in Seattle then he will have in Tennessee this year. I think he could finish around the 20th rated QB and that should be just enough to help out. RB is a problem spot yet again. I lost my best one (Ryan Williams) for the year and will now have to rely on Reggie Bush yet again. Not good in a non-ppr RB league. Greg Jennings, Kenny Britt, Michael Crabtree, Jared Cook and Rob Gronkowski should help cover me though. I may have picked the wrong NE tight end, but if so that is my biggest regret on offense. My DL was terrible last year so I tried to fix that this year. I love having Julius Peppers and Matt Roth to start the year while Derrick Morgan gets healthy. The DBs are not stellar, but they do consist of a few high tackle CBs. I clearly need Tanard Jackson to get reinstated or I am in trouble here. The LBs lack depth but are big at the top. Despite losing Travis Goethel to a season ending injury already (yes, another), I still have David Hawthorne, Daryl Washington and NaVorro Bowman. That is likely three-100 tackle LBs and two with the chance to be 120 tackle guys. I like my team but have a brutal schedule and will not touch last year’s 10-3 record. Prediction: 9-4

2. Jaguars – I am getting sick of the Jags putting together good drafts. They are clearly putting pressure on this division. I cringe at facing this offense. Matthew Stafford, Michael Bush/Daniel Thomas, Miles Austin, Danny Amendola, Jermichael Finley…are you kidding? Even the extras like Harry Douglas are serviceable. The only hope is that the LBs do not perform. Having four starting NFL LBs is a luxury in this league and the Jags have them. None are exceptional, but Sean Lee, Chris Gocong, Michael Boley and Moise Fokou are good enough to keep the D afloat. Their O is probably better than the Colts, but the D might be a tiny bit behind. Close call. Prediction: 8-5

3. Titans – This team has the potential to steal the division away from the Colts of the Jaguars. Brandon Marshall and Percy Harvin are a hell of a one-two punch in a WR ppr league. If Aaron Hernandez keeps up this tear he is on, this offense is going to kill. LeGarrette Blount will be a great non-ppr RB too. The Jacksonville QB is a bit scary. They will be a good point producer while David Garrard is in there. Once Blaine Gabbart gets in, however, the QB spot could become an issue for them. You may not get much better than Patrick Willis and Brian Cushing as a 1-2 punch. Ndamukong Suh is going to be huge too. The D does not have much beyond them, however. They could surprise, but seem a tiny bit behind the other two teams in their division above them. Prediction: 6-7

4. Texans – This team might lack some punch on offense but will be held up by a strong defense. The D is led by the aging but exceptional duo of Ray Lewis and London fletcher. If they both continue to defy father time, this LB group will be brutal to face. Quinten Mikell, Earl Thomas and Major Wright will be great DBs too. While Drew Brees and Peyton Hillis are scary, the receiving options are a bit limited. Jacoby Ford, Mohammed Massaquoi, and Denarius Moore need to step up for them to compete weekly. Brent Celek will help too. I see this team being great if their WRs pan out. If not they will not be. I don’t have much faith in the WRs so I have them lower. They could surprise if I am wrong. Prediction: 4-9

Summary: I see this division as being considerably stronger than it was last year. The Colts and Jags will likely fight at the top if they remain healthy all year. This division could easily produce two playoff teams and do not be surprised if the Titans surprise the Colts or Jags and steal the division.

AFC West
1. Broncos – Many people might be sleeping on Kevin after last year. I will not. Kevin has been the historical competitor I compare myself to every year since I have been in this league starting in 2006. Kevin won the AFC West from 2006-2009 every year. He averaged 9 wins a year in those years and almost 166 points per game. Last year he finished with the worst record in the league somehow. Well guess what folks, he’s back! Mark Sanchez will not set the world on fire, but he will be a solid and stable NEXFL QB. Joseph Addai, Larry Fitzgerald, Robert Meachem and Lance Moore will fill out a very nice NEXFL offense. The D is even crazier. Curtis Lofton, DJ Williams, Chris Harris, Bernard Pollard, Aaron Kampman and Matt Shaughnessy give this team exceptional balance. The key for them is the early season injury to DJ Williams. If his loss costs them some key division games then there will be room to make up. Prediction: 9-4

2. Chargers – Tim has quickly become a force to be reckoned with in this league. This is his third division in as many years, but he keeps putting together exceptional teams. Dwayne Bowe and Brandon Lloyd are a great set of NEXFL WRs. Kyle Orton and Jahvid Best round out the offensive talent. I am a bit concerned with this team relying so much on Denver’s passing offense under John Fox. Orton, Lloyd and Julius Thomas are three starters that could struggle in Denver’s passing offense sputters or is underutilized. Defensively they are scary. Desmond Bishop, Mason Foster and Joe Mays form maybe the best starting LB group in NEXFL. How long Mays hangs on to the starting job is key. There is not much at DL, but the DBs are loaded with undervalued talent in Melvin Bullitt, Chris Hope and Jim Leonhard. I can see them fighting with the Broncos all year long trying to win this division. Prediction: 9-4

3. Raiders – Another year and another good Raiders team. Matt Ryan is in for a huge year and the duo of Ryan Grant and Beanie Wells will give two great RBs and a nice potential trade chip as well. The WRs and TEs are a bit lacking but have a little pop. Can Jerome Simpson and Mike Williams perform despite Andy Dalton and Tarvaris Jackson QBing their teams? If not the Raiders will struggle a bit. Rolando McClain, Tyvon Branch and Eric Berry will be great for the defense. The rest is filled with NFL starters that will be good role players but not likely to be NEXFL stars. Slow and steady wins the race, but this is a tough division. Prediction: 6-7

4. Chiefs – Boy do the NEXFL Chiefs have a lot of NFL Chiefs! If the NFL Chiefs are as good as last year then great! If not then it is not so great. I expect the NFL Chiefs to slip and thus I am a bit low on the NEXFL Chiefs. Matt Cassel could be in for a rude awakening with Charlie Weis and that NE passing offense. He was great in NE under it and great with Charlie Weis running the show. Weis is gone now though. Jamaal Charles will be a beast, but the receiving options need to get healthy to have a chance. Chris Cooley is hurt. Emmanuel Sanders has been hurt. Antonio Gates is ridiculously good when he plays, but he needs to remain healthy. Steve Breaston has been hurt. There is a lot of uncertainty with the receiving options here. If any falter then the Chiefs are hurt. If they all stay healthy and come through then my prediction is way too low. Terrell Suggs and John Abraham are an awesome starting DL pair and Michael Griffin is a great DB starter. Depth beyond them is limited. James Harrison and Ernie Sims have been hurt this preseason and if Sims doesn’t start to begin the year, then this team has Harrison and Anthony Spencer and a bunch of reserve NFL LBs. It could get ugly if that happens. Prediction: 3-10

Summary: I see two likely playoff teams her and the Raiders might make a little noise and prove me wrong and make it a 3-way race. The Chiefs have a ton of potential, but they need to get healthy and stay that way to have a chance in such a tough division.

AFC- 105-103

NFC East
1. Redskins – Chris is one of the league’s wily veterans and he has built another nice squad this year. This team has few weaknesses. It is solid at QB with Jay Cutler and is built heavily around some solid WRs and LBs. Reggie Wayne and Santonio Holmes will carry this offense and if Ryan Mathews steps up the offense could be deadly. When the team gets completely healthy and has Thomas Davis, Lance Briggs and Keith Rivers, look out. I would predict an even better record except this division will beat up on each other a good amount. Prediction: 8-5

2. Cowboys – I am happy to see Andrew gone from the AFC South and he will continue to compete annually in the NFC East now. Andrew’s team is built around stable commodities like Eli Manning and DeAngelo Williams and while his WRs are a bit thin, he has Calvin Johnson and two great TEs to start in Kellen Winslow and Vernon Davis. His LB depth is exceptional too with DeAndre Levy, Jonathan Goff and Kavell Conner to start the year. By the time Conner could get passed by Ernie Sims, he might have Nate Irving starting. Plus he has Mathias Kiwanuka for insurance. He will be fighting for the division title all year. Prediction: 8-5

3. Eagles – Jack’s team here might be just as good as or better than the two I have ranked above him. He has great talent to win on offense with LeSean McCoy, Mike Wallace, Mike Williams and Kevin Boss, but his defense is where he makes up ground. He has two great D-Linemen in Charles Johnson and Jason Babin and early in the year he will have four starting LBs in Karlos Dansby, Casey Matthews, Thomas Howard and Wesley Woodyard. He has a few weeks to sort things out before DJ Williams and Keith Rivers return. Their imminent returns and his bad QB situation are the only reason I list the Eagles behind the Skins and Cowboys here. Prediction: 7-6

4. Giants – Doug is another owner that always seems to prove me wrong. I normally expect his teams to struggle only to find them near the tops of the leader board in the NFC in points scored every year. Hopefully he proves me wrong again this year. Doug has a lot riding on the Giants as always and he needs Travis Beckum to step up for him. I love Hakeem Nicks and I like AJ Green’s talent, but if Green struggles due to poor WB play then the receivers here could be hurting. The LBs are also pretty rough with only Cameron Wake and Andra Davis to write home about. Doug does make up for it with arguably the best DBs in NEXFL with Yeremiah Bell, Roman Harper and Louis Delmas. I could see him being great if AJ Green and Ryan Fitzpatrick play out. I am not 100% sold on that, however. Prediction: 5-8

Summary: I see two likely playoff teams here. These teams are going to beat up on each other all year. The division is really strong top-to-bottom. The division is seemingly always tough and this year will be no different.

NFC North
1. Lions – I had to pick next to Chris last year and it was no picnic. He has a knack for putting together some great teams. I see him being the class of the NFC North this year again. Sidney Rice’s bust potential scares me a bit, but there is enough talent on offense to make up for that with Jason Campbell, Tim Hightower, Vincent Jackson, and Early Doucet there to help. The TE situation is not pretty, lacking a starter on the roster. Luckily the defense is there to save the day. Barrett Ruud, Rey Maualuga and Pat Angerer will team with Jason Pierre-Paul to lead the D. They have a look of a division winner and high ranking playoff team. Prediction: 8-5

2. Vikings – The Vikings are another NEXFL team that often has a lot of their home team’s players. This year is no exception. The difference is the value this year. Chad Ochocinco, Anquan Boldin and Bernard Berrian will help the offense. As long as Donovan McNabb stays healthy, the offense will be ok. If he falters and Christian Ponder enters then this team is hurting as Berrian and Visanthe Shiancoe’s values would falter as well. The DBs and DLs on this team are nothing special, but the LBs are very nice, with David Harris, James Farrior and surprise preseason star Erin Henderson leading the way. If Kirk Morrison ends up starting in Buffalo at any point then this gets even better. All in all not a bad squad. Prediction: 7-6

3. Packers – I want to pick this team to basically win the division. They have a lot going for them. Aaron Rodgers is a stud and will carry them. Fred Jackson provides sneaky value at RB and Mario Manningham is set up to star this year. The problem I have is the lack of other weapons in the receiving game and the lack of oomph at LB. If Derrick Johnson and DeMarcus Ware can hold down the fort, then the Safeties with TJ Ward, Kerry Rhodes and Nick Collins can hopefully make up some ground. If there was a little bit more in the WR/TE department I could see them as a playoff team with a shot at the division. Prediction: 5-8

4. Bears – This is another team that is not barren and I hate predicting to finish this poorly. A team with Tom Brady, Cedric Benson, Mark Ingram, Brian Urlacher and Takeo Spikes is too good of a base to struggle mightily. However, there are just way too many question marks at WR and TE to stomach. When your top WRs and TEs are players that might not even start for their NFL teams (Roy Williams, Derrick Mason, Ben Obamanu, Tony Scheffler) then you know it could be a long year. Prediction: 5-8

Summary: This was a tough division for me to gauge. I don’t see the Packers or Bears being all that bad. They could flip-flop with the Vikings and all could be solid and competing to the bitter end just like last year. I just see the Lions above them for sure, that’s all. I only see one team making it out of this division into the playoffs this year. Maybe they will prove me wrong like they did last year.

NFC South
1. Buccaneers – I really like what Ty has done with his team. He is stocked strongly at QB (Philip Rivers), RB (Knowshon Moreno and CJ Spiller) and at WR (Marques Colston, Malcolm Floyd). He has Tony Gonzalez at TE but no depth behind him. He also needs one of his 3 other WRs to step up and form a decent WR3. On defense I love Elvis Dumervil and he has EJ Henderson and Von Miller to help out as well. If the Denver D struggles to pressure the QB then his team will struggle on D. They have looked good so far, so it is so-far-so-good. Prediction: 8-5

2. Panthers – Something tells me I am significantly under-rating the returning Champs. Ben Roethlisberger and Arian Foster are beats and will carry the offense. My concern is the receiving options again. This team needs both TEs to excel. Owen Daniels and Zach Miller need to be great for them to have a great offense. I don’t see much at WR to help carry the load. The defense here is what has me all types of uncertain. The DBs are top notch. George Wilson, Eric Weddle and Brent Grimes are awesome. The DL has Justin Smith and not much else. The tough part are the LBs. I do not believe in James Anderson as much as others do. The numbers speak for themselves, but I just don’t believe it. If Jamar Chaney goes back to the middle, this team could shoot up the division. If not, they have some work to do. Prediction: 6-7

3. Falcons – Welcome back Tim! Tim won the title in 2009 and then was out of the league last year. Here he is back again. I am not so sure I love the team, though. The Redskins QB will likely provide some ups and downs. Chris Johnson will be really good, and Marshawn Lynch provides some nice depth. However, if Steve Johnson struggles this team is in trouble. Johnson and Mike Sims-Walker are being relied on to carry a weak group of WRs and TEs. Defensively the DBs are great but the LBs and DL have potential and very little proven talent. I just can’t see a return to the playoffs unless everything goes right. In NEXFL it rarely does. Prediction: 5-8

4. Saints – To put it simply, I love the defense on Mike’s team and I hate the offense. The offense does not have much beyond Adrian Peterson. Cam Newton will struggle early on, none of the WRs are starters for their NFL team, and some are not even the third option for their teams. There are two very good TEs in Jimmy Graham and Dustin Keller, but both those teams have many NFL receiving options and they will be up and down week to week. It is hard to count out a team with guys like Osi Umenyiora, Chad Greenway, Stephen Tulloch, LaRon Landry and Adrian Wilson on it. I feel the need to though. With Umenyiora, Wilson and Landry dinged up, this team strength could be derailed really quickly. Prediction: 4-9

Summary: This was exceptionally hard for me. For some reason, I just simply do not like the teams in this division this year and the way they are built. I am also not an idiot and know that this division has represented the NFC in the championship three years in a row and has won the last two NEXFL Championships. These guys know what they are doing. They are likely to prove me very, very wrong. But as of now I can’t see more than one team coming out of here and I really don’t see much certainty beyond the Bucs.

NFC West
1. Rams – Dave jumped over to the NFC this year and then went on to build a great team. Sam Bradford was a nice snag when the QBs began flying off the board and Felix Jones should be good this year. He even grabbed DeMarco Murray as a handcuff, which could be big if he beats out Tashard Choice. The receiving options on this team and the LBs are great. Not only that, but they are deep. Jeremy Maclin, Lee Evans, Donald Driver, and Danario Alexander could all be starters for their NFL teams. Even Demaryius Thomas has late season upside. Ben Watson is a solid contributor and the LBs are built around James Laurinaitis, Sean Weatherspoon and Aldon Smith. Smith has looked good in his transition this preseason and the Rams can even ride Dan Conner early in the year if Jon Beason misses time. This team is primed for a run. Prediction: 9-4

2. Cardinals – For a newcomer to NEXFL, James has built a nice team. It would be even nicer if he had not lost his 23rd rounder due to his not being up to date yet on his league payment. As soon as he rectifies that and adds some depth he will be even more of a force to be reckoned with. What’s not to like about a team built around Josh Freeman, Darren McFadden, Roddy White, and solid defenders like Will Witherspoon and Bradie James. This team has the makings of one that can make some noise. Prediction: 8-5

3. 49ers – Todd’s team perplexes me. I can see them being 8-5 or 5-8. The core is solid. Jerod Mayo and Lawrence Timmons will be a nightmare to face. The question is on offense. Can Jordan Shipley be decent with Andy Dalton? Can Johnny Knox nab his starting spot back? Can Marcedes Lewis repeat last year? Can Steven Jackson stay healthy? Can the Miami QB produce? Too many questions for me to go high. But this team could easily reverse my predicted record. Prediction: 5-8

4. Seahawks – James is probably going to hate me for this. If I am not mistaken, I predicted him to be 6-7 last year and he was. Hopefully I am wrong this year. Tony Romo, Frank Gore, Santana Moss and Davone Bess will lead the offense. The season-ending injury to Tony Moeaki hurts a lot. There is not much depth on the Seahawks behind him and not much on the waiver wire. The DBs here are great but the LBs are not much to write about beyond Bart Scott….which isn’t saying much. I hope I am wrong but I see a finish similar to last year. Prediction: 5-8

Summary: This division went from last year’s joke to a strong one this year. I can easily see two teams coming into the playoffs out of here. The Rams look like they may even be the class of the NFC at this early juncture. All in all it could get wild in the NEXFL NFC West this year.

NFC- 103-105

Is Devery a better fantasy option than Meachum in 2010?

The final preseason games are over. Most drafts are over. Final roster cuts are being made. More injuries have occurred. This seems like a good time to get our first look at the best waiver wire pick-ups of the preseason.

Every position and every team has had some interesting twists and turns over the preseason’s four games. So let’s go around the league and take a look at each team’s standouts and potential waiver fodder, plus Watch-list candidates.

–NFC South–

Atlanta Falcons:

The Falcons aren’t offering any real waiver worthy news at this point, though one guy I’m high on is Harry Douglas. He’s grabbed the WR3 slot, and is Roddy White’s back-up. With Michael Jenkins banged up, Douglas should be on your watch-list or your bench is deep leagues.

Carolina Panthers:

Right now the Panthers are a fantasy black hole outside of their RB duo of Williams and Stewart, and WR Steve Smith. No preseason breakouts. In IDP outside of Jon Beason, Chris Gamble and Richard Marshall, no one has exploded to waiver worthiness yet. Free safety Sherrod Martin is worth a watch-list add though.

New Orleans Saints:

On the offensive side of the ball, wide receiver Robert Meachum has been this summer’s big name, and he’s 100% owned, but fellow receiver Devery Henderson has been more impressive this preseason, and with Meachum nursing a toe injury, Henderson has moved into the WR2 role. He’s an immediate waiver grab who is less than 80% owned. The team also cut veteran RB Ladell Betts because they are high on Chris Ivory. Ivory is out till week 4, but he should be on your watch-list. For IDP players, Darren Sharper is on the PUP list,meaning Malcolm Jenkins will start at free safety. He’s worth a grab in deeper leagues and a watch-list add in others.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers:

As a teem in transition from Superbowl champs a few years back, there are all sorts of potential breakouts here. Rookie WR Mike Williams is the team’s #1 guy now, but he’s still only 60% owned. Likewise, undrafted RB Kareem Huggins was so good this summer he pushed Derrick Ward to Houston, and will start the season pushing Cadillac Williams for touches, and he’s barely 30% owned. both are waiver grabs. For IDP players, DB Sean Jones beat out Sabby Piscatelli for the starting strong safety job, and should put up top 25 DB fantasy numbers.

Previous: NFC West, AFC West, AFC North, NFC North

Next Up: AFC South

Seriously, I can play on one leg!

The Carolina Panthers offer up this season’s first big IDP hit in the form of linebacker Thomas Davis. Davis who we had ranked at #24 going into the season is now likely lost for all of 2010 with his second torn ACL in as many years.

Yesterday tests confirmed the original diagnosis of another torn knee ligament, this after he was lost  last November when he blew his right anterior cruciate ligament while backpedaling and planting on the Louisiana Superdome turf. That one was a non-contact injury. According to HeraldOnline this week’s injury was “eerily similar.”

While backpedaling during individual drills next to teammate Jon Beason (ranked #2 IDP LB), Davis went down without being touched by another player, and immediately gripped his right knee.

Fortunately for fantasy teams, the linebacker position is the easiest IDP slot to fill, but this news is bad for the morale and defense of the Carolina Panthers.

Is Rolando McClain 2010's version of James Laurinaitis?

UPDATED: September 5, 2010

The Linebacker position is the easiest Individual Defensive Player (IDP) spot to draft for. There is more consistency at the position than Defensive Back, and greater depth than Defensive Lineman. And more so than the other two positions, stud rookie Linebackers tend to surface each season like Jerod Mayo, Patrick Willis, Brian Cushing and James Laurinaitis.

Which rookie linebacker is most likely to surprise this season with 100 tackles? We like Rolando McClain for the Oakland Raiders, but we think Darryl Washington could be a nice sleeper pick as well for the Arizona Cardinals.

Some may question my reasoning for putting David Hawthorne before Lafu Tatupa, but as we’ve already seen in camp this summer, Tatupa cannot stay healthy, making Hawthorne even more valuable.

Top 50 IDP Defensive Lineman Rankings

Top 50 IDP Defensive Back Rankings

Welcome to Top Fantasy Football’s Week 17 edition of “IDP Starts & Sits” brought to you by “The IDP Guru.”

This will be the final installment of “IDP Starts & Sits” for the 2009 season. It’s been a great ride and I’ve had a blast recommending players and answering all of your questions. FYI, I will continue to write articles during the off-season. These articles will focus on the effects of IDP free agent signings, changes in defensive schemes, IDP rookies and their potential fantasy impact, etc. As always, feel free to contact me anytime with any questions you may have and thanks for all your support!

Most leagues are over with and the league championship has already been decided. But, for you owners who are in 17 week leagues, I’m here for you with some great IDP Start/Sit advice.

But before I get started with my recommendations, here is something I stumbled upon when doing my research for today. If you like to laugh, it’s definitely worth a look: Congresswoman Corrine Brown – Go Gata (With Subtitles).

Anyways, here are my IDP Waiver Wire recommendations for Week 17:

Starts

*The IDP Guru’s Start of the Week*

MLB Stephen Tulloch - Tulloch has been one of the most consistent tackling fantasy linebackers in the league this year. And with both starting WLB Keith Bulluck and SLB David Thornton out for the year, Tulloch has little competition for tackles. He has the Seahawks this week who have surprisingly given up the second most fantasy points to opposing linebackers over the last 7 weeks. Tulloch is a must-start this week.

DEFENSIVE LINEMAN

Every Week Starters:
Jared Allen
Julius Peppers
Elvis Dumervil
Justin Tuck
Trent Cole
Mario Williams
Robert Mathis – INJURED (OUT)
Andre Carter
Dwight Freeney – WATCH PLAYING STATUS
Will Smith
Brian Orakpo

1. LDE Mathias Kiwanuka -With Osi Umenyiora being regulated to playing only in third- down passing situations, Kiwanuka has become the Giants starting LDE. In those two games in which he’s started, he’s posted 13 total tackles (11 solo) and he should be able to post some nice tackle numbers this week against Adrian Peterson and the Vikings.

2. LDE Calais Campbell – Campbell has been a solid DL3 this year and slightly upgrades to a DL2 this week against the Packers, who have done a much better job of protecting the quarterback the last six to eight weeks, but are still susceptible to giving up sacks.

3. RDE Vonnie Holliday – Holliday has quietly registered three sacks in his last four games and he has a nice matchup this week against the Kansas City Chiefs, who have one of the worst pass-blocking offensive lines in the league. I can see Holliday having a couple of solo tackles and a sack this week.

LINEBACKERS

Every Week Starters:
Patrick Willis
James Harrison
Jon Beason
Barrett Rudd
London Fletcher
D.J. Williams
Curtis Lofton
Kirk Morrison
Brian Cushing
David Harris
David Hawthorne
James Laurinaitis
Karlos Dansby – INJURED (PROBABLE)
Clint Session – WATCH PLAYING STATUS
Paul Posluszny
Jonathan Vilma

1. MLB Jasper Brinkley – Rookie Jasper Brinkley has played well since taking over for the injured MLB EJ Henderson two weeks ago (click here to see how Henderson was injured). From the games I’ve watched, Brinkley seems to be around the ball quite a bit. He has a very good matchup versus the Giants this week and should be a great end of the season filler.

2. LILB James Farrior - Compared to his fantasy production last year, Farrior is having somewhat of an off-year. However, he provides good value this week because of his matchup against the Dolphins. Inside linebackers tend to put up great fantasy numbers against Miami and Farrior is the Steelers most consistent tackler. He should be a safe play for 7-9 total tackles this week.

3. WLB Geno Hayes – Hayes has really started to come into his own the last few weeks of the season. He’s registered a sack in each of the last two games and is starting to put up some nice tackle numbers. His matchup against the Falcons isn’t a good one, but the last time he played them he went 9-0-0. I have a gut feeling Hayes may reproduce a similar stat line this week. If you’re feeling a little risky, Hayes could be a great play.

DEFENSIVE BACKS

Every Week Starters:
Eric Weddle – INJURED (QUESTIONABLE)
Charles Woodson
Troy Polamalu – INJURED (QUESTIONABLE)
Darren Sharper
Tyvon Branch
Antoine Bethea – WATCH PLAYING STATUS
Yeremiah Bell
Oshiomogho Atogwe – INJURED (PLACED ON IR 12/9)
Dashon Goldson
Bernard Pollard
Bryan Scott – INJURED (OUT)
Brian Dawkins

1. SS Mike Brown – I recommended Mike “Michelle” Brown last week and he really came through (13 total tackles). He has a fantastic matchup against the division rival Denver Broncos this week. I’m expecting another great game with Brown this week.

2. SS Chinedum “Nedu” Ndukwe – I expect a big game out of Ndukwe this week. He has a fantastic matchup against the Jets. This is a must-win game for the Jets and, with that being said, they are going to run the ball a ton with Thomas Jones. The Bengals will put 8 in the box (including Ndukwe) to stop him and force pretty boy Sanchez to actually make a play.

3. RCB Ronde Barber – Barber is having a pretty quiet year due to his lack of interceptions (zero). However, his tackles numbers are actually up slightly this year and he has a great matchup against Roddy White and the Falcons. I can see Barber producing some decent tackles numbers this week. If you have a good lead in your league and are looking to play it safe, Barber is a good play. He hasn’t had less than 4 solo tackles since Week 7.

Sits

*The IDP Guru’s Sit of the Week*

MLB DeAndre Levy – With Larry Foote possibly out for another game, Levy may once again slide into the starting MLB position. With that being said, I would typically recommend him. However, he’s facing the Bears this week who have given up the second least fantasy points to opposing linebackers the last seven weeks. Levy is a great dynasty pick but I would sit him this week.

DEFENSIVE LINEMAN

1. LDE Chris Kelsay – Kelsay has put up respectable numbers this season. But, I just don’t like the matchup against the Colts. Even with Curtis Painter under center, the Colts do an extremely good job of protecting the passer. Kelsay may have a difficult time getting to the quarterback this week.

2. RDE Greg Ellis – Ellis has managed 7 sacks this year even though he’s been hobbled by injuries for a majority of the season. He finally seems to be healthy, but the matchup this week against the Ravens is piss poor. I wouldn’t start Ellis this week.

LINEBACKERS

1. Nic Harris – Many people will be jumping on the waiver wire to pick up Harris after his 12 tackle performance last week filling in for WLB Bryan Scott. I think that given the right matchup, Harris could be a great pickup. However, the Colts are the absolute worst matchup an opposing fantasy linebacker can have. Be aware of falling into this potential trap!

2. WLB A.J. Hawk - Hawk has performed well this year from a strict football standpoint (he was just named as a NFC Pro Bowl alternate). However, his fantasy numbers have slowly been declining every year. He’s just not as productive, fantasy-wise, as he use to be. And his matchup against the Cardinals is not a good one.

DEFENSIVE BACKS

1.  SS Dawan Landry – Landry has performed fairly well this year. He’s posted 82 total tackles along with 4 INTs. However, I wouldn’t really recommend any safeties who are playing Oakland. The Raiders just don’t control the ball enough and, when they do, they have a difficult time getting into the secondary. Leave Landry on your bench this week.

2. SS Adrian “Big Name” Wilson – Remember when Adrian Wilson use to be, hands-down, the best fantasy DB in the game? Well, I do. In 2005, he had 109 total tackles, 8 sacks, 1 INT, and 9 PDs. He was a beast to say the least. However, after a defensive scheme change, Wilson’s fantasy production has been greatly reduced. He has had a slight resurgence the last 7 games and consequently many people are playing Wilson as the DB1 he used to be four years ago. Don’t be fooled by the recent production and the big name. Wilson is still a DB2 at very best and he has a horrible matchup this week against the Packers. I would be somewhat apprehensive about starting Mr. Wilson this week.

I hope you found this article to be helpful and enjoyable!

Please feel free to leave comments, questions, or derogatory remarks!

Thanks!

Ryan Sitzmann (The IDP Guru)

If you liked this article, make sure to check out my blog: The IDP Guru