As a follow up to last week’s first installment of IDP Risers and Fallers, here are this week’s IDP Risers.

Defensive Linemen:

Cliff Avril- Avril is going to be impossible to focus on with that Detroit front seven. Avril also has the benefit of playing right next to Suh and for every double-team Suh creates, that is a one-on-one matchup Avril will exploit. Avril’s potential was on full display last week against New England. Avril harassed Tom Brady and tallied two sacks as the Detroit D clamped down on a NE offense that had looked exceptional to that point in the preseason. Avril is a strong bet to top his 8.5 sacks from last year and could provide DL1 value at a DL2 or DL3 price.

Linebackers:

Kevin Burnett- Burnett lit it up last year as the main ILB in San Diego and then made his way to Miami as a free agent. I have seen him going awfully low in most drafts, as some people expect Karlos Dansby to be the man in Miami and expect Burnett to go back to his second-fiddle role from earlier in his San Diego career. Someone forgot to give Burnett that memo. So far this preseason he has 10 tackles (nine solo) and two passes defensed in only two games of limited action. Dansby, meanwhile, has eight tackles in three games. Burnett has out-tackled Dansby in both games that they have both played in so far, and he very well may be the better option. Dansby is going a lot higher then Burnett in many drafts, so he is a relative steal right now.  

Von Miller- Everyone thought Miller was an exceptional talent, but was a poor fit as an OLB in Denver’s new 4-3 scheme. Well, so far Miller has blown people away with his transition and his versatility. He already has nine tackles and three sacks in three preseason games where his playing time was limited. He is already Denver’s 1B pass rusher to Elvis Dumervil’s 1A.  He is already the favorite for Defensive Rookie of the Year. He could be a very, very good player out of the gate and offers amazing value as people sleep on him right now.  

Defensive Backs:

A.J Jefferson- Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie is gone, and now Greg Toler has been lost for the season with a torn ACL. With that, AJ Jefferson is in line to start across from Patrick Peterson. With Toler’s injury, the chances for Jefferson to hang on to a starting job across from Peterson all year have moved way up. The Cardinals love him, and the only real competition on the roster is Richard Marshall.  Toler racked up 90 tackles and nine passes defensed in only 14 games last year. Jefferson could see a bunch of balls throw his way as a newbie and playing across from another newbie but infinitely more acclaimed rookie in Patrick Peterson. In deeper leagues Jefferson can provide starter-caliber numbers for bargain basement prices right now.

Can McCoy be the real thing, Sooner rather than later?

Each year at least one explosive defensive rookie makes a name for himself, but generally it’s not until his second or third year that most  mature enough or get enough regular playing time to really make an impact at the NFL level. In 2009, it was the St. Louis Rams’ James Laurinaitis. In 2008, the New England Patriot’s, Jerod Mayo and the Atlanta Falcon’s, Curtis Lofton were exceptional rookie standouts. In 2007, it was San Francisco 49ers, Patrick Willis. Willis has been the top IDP fantasy pick ever since his rookie year. The ten defensive rookies below all have a chance to make their mark on the field and on fantasy scorecards in 2010. My pick for 2010 IDP rookie of the year is the Oakland Raiders’ Rolando McClain, but I think a couple of the other guys below could prove me wrong.

–Defensive Linemen–

Defensive Linemen are football’s big play machines, and the primary sack magnets. Because of this it is hard to count on consistent points each week. A 17 point week may be followed by a two point week. There are also fewer elite DL’s to be had, so it may be wise to grab one solid DL before going for your first Linebacker. But in case you miss out, here are some nice rookie possibilities.

Derrek Morgan, TEN ~ Morgan will be the Titans starting right end, and he was the most NFL ready of the defensive ends in the 2010 draft. His impact should be immediate for Tennessee. He should be the #1 rookie fantasy producer at the DL position.

Gerald McCoy, TB ~ McCoy, a former Oklahoma Sooner, is a defensive tackle, and I generally shy away from them in IDP fantasy, but McCoy may be an exception. Due to the scheme’s employed in Tampa Bay, he should have more opportunities for big plays. Their defense will also be on the field a lot which improves his fantasy value. If your league requires a DT rather than the standard DL spot, he’s a good name to slap on your cheat sheets.

Brandon Graham, PHI ~ Graham has leap-frogged Juqua Parker, and will start the season lined up next to Trent Cole. I’m not usually hopeful for first year linemen, but Graham is in a great situation, and could produce solid numbers this season

–Linebackers–

Linebackers are the primary tackle machines in football and are generally the most consistent year after year in terms of fantasy production. They are also the most likely to make a fantasy impact as a rookie. In 2010, few rookie linebackers will get the starting nod, so the only two names that need be on your radar this early are the guys below.

Rolando McClain, OAK ~ I expect that McClain will be this year’s standout defensive rookie, at least in fantasy terms. He will join the list along with Willis, Laurinaitis, Mayo and Lofton of 100 tackle rookie monsters. He’s ranked in my top 10 at the position, and a must for dynasty and keeper leagues. He already leads the team in tackles through three preseason games.

Daryl Washington, ARI ~ Washington joins the Cardinals, and a great situation with the team losing Karlos Dansby, and expected to spend more time on defense with the loss of Kurt Warner. He’s on the bubble of my top 50 at the position, but he could prove to be a pleasant surprise. With Gerald Hayes expected to miss the start of the season, Washington projects to start alongside Paris Lenon.

–Defensive Backs–

Defensive backs are arguably the most difficult IDP position to speculate on. Each season sees a high turnover in top performers from the season before. Last season saw only a handful of 100 tackle DBs. However, if your league includes return yardage points, then DBs can offer quite a bit of weekly consistency for those who get return duties added to their gig. This year there is a lot of rookie talent at the DB position, which is another reason you can wait until late in your draft for defensive backs.

Eric Berry, KC ~ The Chiefs took Berry awfully high in round one this year, and their expectations are high. Berry plans on delivering. He’s leading the team in tackles during the preseason, and he will be the team’s starting free safety.

Morgan Burnett, GB ~ Burnett has been a standout in the Packers’ camp this summer. Atari Bigby is hurt, and has been outplayed by the rookie anyway. He will be Green Bay’s starting strong safety, and looks to have an impressive rookie campaign.

T.J. Ward, CLE ~ Ward has been lighting it up in the preseason, with 14 solo tackles through parts of 3 games. In doing so he has secured the starting nod for the Browns at free safety. He is a major DB sleeper this season.

Earl Thomas, SEA ~ Thomas get’s the starting free safety gig for the Seahawks this season. He already has an interception returned for an 86 yard TD this preseason. He is a big time play-maker on a team in a weak division.

Nate Allen, PHI ~ Free safety, and second round draftee, Allen gets the nod to start this season alongside strong safety Quintin Mikell.  He is also the 2nd Eagle on this list. Of the 5 DBs listed here he seems least likely to make a big fantasy splash, but he is in a division with a lot of pass heavy teams, so the opportunities will be there.

Brandon Marshall: New in Miami

The Miami Dolphins added one of the best players at his position in the NFL this offseason, and he ranks as only the third-biggest addition in Miami this summer. Thanks to LeBron and Chris Bosh coming to South Beach, the Dolphins will have until the end of October to be relevant in Miami before the Heat’s season begins.

In the AFC, they might be relevant longer than that, though.

Thanks to the addition of Brandon Marshall on offense in a big trade with Denver, the Dolphins could have an explosive offense the likes of which hasn’t been seen since the early 1980s. With young signal caller Chad Henne‘s cannon under center, the Fins could be a great offense for fantasy owners this year.

Let’s look at the Dolphins a little closer.

Quarterback

Henne replaced Chad Pennington last year and emerged as a decent fantasy quarterback despite limited options. He threw 12 touchdowns versus 14 interceptions, but didn’t have an elite weapon outside like Marshall. By simply replacing Ted Ginn with Marshall, the Dolphins offense has improved by leaps and bounds. The continued development of secondary targets should also help Henne have a strong season under center in Miami.

Running Back

The running game in Miami has been a fantasy nightmare for fantasy owners ever since the Dolphins drafted Ronnie Brown. Brown’s talent is undeniable, and he’s one of the most productive backs in the NFL when he’s on the field.

But that’s the problem. Brown’s rarely on the field.

So the gamble is to look at Ricky Williams, who eclipsed 1,100 yards last year, as their top fantasy back. The Dolphins have a good offensive line, and will run the ball to keep defenses honest. But it’s hard for any fantasy owner to put #1 RB faith in any back from Miami because of Brown’s abilities and Williams’ inconsistent history. There are also a number of top rush defenses on the Dolphins schedule this year that impact the draft rankings of either Brown or Williams.

Wide Receivers

Marshall jumps to the top of the list, but the Fins have some other strong options. Davone Bess broke out with 76 catches for 758 yards last year, and should be the biggest beneficiary of the Marshall acquisition. Greg Camarillo should see plenty of action as the third receiver as well, after catching 50 balls for 552 yards last season.

The enormous catch-22 with Miami’s receivers, however, is the reality that there will be two lost weeks this season when they play the NY Jets, one of which comes during the playoffs in most leagues. So while there could be strong production throughout the season from this talented group, owners are advised to have good depth if banking on Marshall for playoffs. The Dolphins have favorable matchups in Weeks 15 and 16, but the Jets game on 14 is a speed bump for owners.

Tight Ends

Anthony Fasano had a nice season for the Dolphins last year with 31 catches and two touchdowns, and could be another player that benefits in the red zone because of the Marshall addition. However, owners shouldn’t look to Fasano as a top fantasy option because of the depth at receiver in Miami; Fasano should be used as an injury replacement or a bye-week/matchup TE.

Karlos Dansby: Also new in Miami

Defense

The addition of former Arizona Cardinals captain Karlos Dansby to play inside next to Channing Crowder gives the Dolphins great strength in their linebacking group heading into 2010. Another season from Vontae Davis, who had four interceptions last year at corner, also gives the Dolphins good secondary play as well.

MIA DEF should be handicapped in any draft, however, because of the number of strong offenses on their schedule this year. The draw of DET in Week 16 is a sweet fantasy matchup in championship week, but facing Aaron Rodgers, Jay Cutler, Carson Palmer, Joe Flacco, Mark Sanchez and Tom Brady at quarterback and running backs like Adrian Peterson and Chris Johnson should make owners think twice about locking in Miami for the full season.

There is a lot of IDP value on the Miami roster, but the team defense should be a caution.

2010 Regular Season Schedule (all times EST)

• Week One – SUN Sept 12 – @ BUF    1:00 PM
• Week Two – SUN Sept 19 – @ MIN    1:00 PM
• Week Three – SUN Sept 26 – vs NYJ    8:20 PM
• Week Four – MON Oct 4 – vs NE   8:30 PM
• Week Five – BYE
• Week Six – SUN Oct 17 – @ GB    1:00 PM
• Week Six – SUN Oct 24 – vs PIT    1:00 PM
• Week Eight – SUN Oct 31 – @ CIN   1:00 PM
• Week Nine - SUN Nov 7 – @ BAL    1:00 PM
• Week Ten – SUN Nov 14 – vs TEN    1:00 PM
• Week Eleven – SUN Nov 21 – vs CHI    8:20 PM
• Week Twelve – SUN Nov 28 – @ OAK    4:05 PM
• Week Thirteen – SUN Dec 5 – vs CLE   1:00 PM
• Week Fourteen - SUN Dec 12 – @ NYJ    4:15 PM
• Week Fifteen – SUN Dec 19 – vs BUF    1:00 PM
• Week Sixteen – SUN Dec 23 – vs DET   1:00 PM
• Week Seventeen – SUN Jan 2 – @ NE   1:00 PM

The schedule puts a lot of intrigue into the 2010 fantasy season in Miami. With big time offenses all over the schedule, and some tough defenses including NYJ and BAL as well, evey Dolphins player should be considered a week-by-week fantasy play.

Coaching Philosophy

The Dolphins should continue to be an aggressive defense that attacks opposing quarterbacks and focuses on turnovers. On offense, this could be an evolving situation with Henne under center and the running game being a question mark.

It's all about the D in fantasy!

UPDATED: September 6, 2010

Every year brings new surprises in fantasy production at all positions but especially  for team defenses. It’s hard to gauge how strength of schedule, scheme changes, or player performance will ultimately impact the team’s defensive cohesiveness. In 2007, the San Diego Chargers and New England Patriots were the dominating team defenses. Last season they dropped to 10th and 25th respectively. In 2009, New Orleans came out of nowhere to be the #1 fantasy defense after placing 21st and 15th the previous two seasons.

More surprising were the ascension of the San Francisco 49ers and Denver Broncos defenses. After placing 26th in team defense in 2008, coach Mike Singletary got his squad to perform at a level worthy of 4th best overall. The Bronco’s new head coach, Josh McDaniel saw even better results as Denver went from 2nd to last in team defense in 2008, to fifth best in 2009.

So who will rise to the top in 2010? Will the Saints march on? Can the gold diggers mine more fantasy gems?  Or will it be the birds flying high again; the Philadelphia Eagles and Baltimore Ravens?

The Eagles have remained fairly steady the last few seasons, but the Ravens dipped to number eight last season. Still not bad for the league’s stalwart defenses. And let us not forget the Packers, who have been 3rd best two years in a row.

1. Philadelphia Eagles – The Eagles have a new QB and the 9th toughest schedule in 2010. They’ve been a top 2 fantasy defense the last two seasons, despite turnover, and they spread their fantasy value across the board. I think they are improved this season, and I expect them to spend more time on the field this year as well, which means more opportunity. They tied the league for 3rd in sacks in 2009.
2. Minnesota Vikings – They led the league last season with 48 sacks. They were 6th overall in points with only one defensive TD. If they can improve their interceptions this year they can do even better. Of course having Percy Harvin’s kick return skills can’t hurt either.
3. Green Bay Packers – There’s no reason to believe the Packers can’t make the top five for the third consecutive season. They’ve taken to Dom Caper’s new defensive scheme. They spread their fantasy points around, and no team had a better run defense last year than GB. They were also number one with 30 interceptions.
4. New York Jets – I’ve seen a lot of experts picking the Jets as the #1 fantasy defense in 2010. They may well be the #1 defense on the field, but as we saw last year, that doesn’t mean much. The Jets were often stifling, but that did not translate to fantasy points. They ended 2009 ranked 17th. I do think they’ll bring those numbers up this season. Their defense just keeps getting better which will translate to more big play opportunities, but first in fantasy? I think not. Even if Revis holds out, they are still a solid pick. Update: Revis ended his hold-out.
5. Baltimore Ravens – I think the Ravens rise back up this year and start to reassert their fantasy dominance. Not that they fell far last season; #8 overall. They gave up the 3rd fewest points in 2009, and with an improved offense, look for the defense to tighten it up even more.
6. Pittsburgh Steelers – The Steelers were 2nd in sacks with 47. They were a dominating defense most of 2009, even without their spark plug, Troy Polamalu for much of the season. With their QB on the shelf to start the year, look for the Steelers D to really step it up.
7. San Francisco 49ers – While I think the Denver Broncos will crash back down to fantasy earth this season, I believe the 49ers are for real. They have a solid core of players, led by fantasy studs like Patrick Willis, Dashon Goldson and Justin Smith. They also have one of the game’s best defensive minded coaches in Mike Singletary. If all that isn’t enough they play in one of the NFL’s weakest divisions and have the 5th easiest schedule (on paper) this year. People will still overlook them, so they could be a steal. While it’s only preseason, they did manage to go 4-0.
8. Dallas Cowboys – The Dallas fantasy defense was all but worthless to start last season. They were dead last in fantasy points the first couple of weeks, and other than a couple of big weeks never really lived up to their hype. They ended the year 15th overall. Call it an off year. I think they’ll start to make big plays again this season, and take better advantage of some opportunities that slipped by them last year.
9. New Orleans Saints - The Saints were an explosive fantasy defense last year turning 38% of their interceptions into defensive touchdowns…8 in all. Double the number any other team had. But defensive touchdowns are as much fortuitous luck as skill. How rare is it? Only one other team, the 2008 Vikings had 8 defensive TDs, this decade. So a lot of GMs will be snapping the Saints D up early this year, but they’ll likely end up with far fewer defensive TDs, which makes their overall fantasy value less. If not for their soft schedule this season I’d probably rank them lower.
10. Miami Dolphins – They are a quiet sleeper this season. Most fantasy GMs probably didn’t know the ‘Fins ended 2010 as the 7th most productive fantasy defense. In 2010 they have a new defensive coordinator in Mike Nolan. They also add Karlos Dansby from the Cardinals– a beast at linebacker.
11. New York Giants – 2010 was miserable for the G-men but their once dominant D should surface again this season. Osi Umenyiora returns, as does Kenny Phillips. The team also added stud safety Antrel Rolle from the Cardinals, and the drafted defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul. The final piece may have been the recent addition of veteran LB Keith Bulluck who steps in to replace Antonio Pierce. All signs point north in 2010.
12. Arizona Cardinals – The Cardinals were 6th in sacks last year and 13th on fantasy defense overall. This season they’ve lost some vets but gained a firecracker in Joey Porter, a sick defensive back in Kerry Rhodes, and some great young rookies. With less power on the offensive side of the ball, the defense will spend more time on the field, and they have a soft schedule. Rookie linebacker, Daryl Washington looks like the real deal.
13. Cincinnati Bengals – The Bengals are starting to put it together, and an improved offense will keep the defense fresh. The more I see this preseason, the more I like their chances in 2010. With a linebacking corp that features Dhani Jones, Rey Maualuga and Keith Rivers, and two of the league’s best corners in Leon Hall and Jonathan Joseph, they have the blueprint for fantasy production.
14. San Diego Chargers – The Chargers did not live up to their fantasy capabilities last year. They should get back on track this season, but without any real changes along the defensive line, they haven’t given themselves any new tools to work with.
15. New England Patriots – I originally had them ranked 20th this season. The defense is losing veterans left and right, and they are in a rebuilding stage on that side of the ball. However, they have two solid young safeties in Patrick Chung and Brandon Merriweather, and they just signed Jarrad Page for depth and experience. Jerod Mayo is back and healthy, and rookie LB Brandon Spikes looks like the real deal. They are weak at corner back, but that should mean plenty of tackles in the secondary.
16. Chicago Bears – Da bears lost a lot to injuries last season so you may be able to snag a sweet deal on a team defense, as they will likely outperform this ranking.
17. Indianapolis Colts – Their defense is solid but unspectacular
18. Tennessee Titans – They were a tale of two teams last season, but they have the play makers to be special.
19. Houston Texans – They have a great offense, and a playmaking defense, but they have a terrible schedule this season and they are without their top defensive playmaker to start the season.
20. Denver Broncos – They will fall back to earth after last season’s surprise start.
21. Carolina Panthers – This is one team with a chance to rise this year, but you can’t bank on maybes.
22. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - They are improving, but they’ll need some luck to be fantasy viable.
23. Buffalo Bills – They had some fantasy highlights last season but still had a poor showing overall. 2010 will be more of the same.
24. Cleveland Browns – They were better on defense than people gave them credit for, but that won’t help your fantasy team.
25. Washington Redskins – A lot of people think highly of their defense, but they were 3rd to last in fantasy points last season in the league’s toughest division, with a tough schedule in 2010.
26. Atlanta Falcons – Not a lot of big play makers.
27. Kansas City Chiefs – Eric Berry should improve their INT #’s but that’s about it.
28. Seattle Seahawks - Still too many holes and growing pains.
29. Oakland Raiders – They improved this off-season, but not enough to escalate them from the basement.
30. Detroit Lions – They are a better offensive team than people give them credit for but when your defense gives up an average of 31 points per game, well, there ya go. I expect improvement this season, but not enough to get them out of the fantasy defense cellar.
31. Jacksonville Jaguars – Their defense was deplorable all the way around last season. They had only 14 sacks and were the worst fantasy defense in the league. A switch to a 4-3 scheme should help this year, but I’m still not expecting anything better than a bottom five outcome.
32. St. Louis Rams - The Rams will be one of the leagues whipping boys this season and their slowly improving defense will feel it.

The Cardinals are hoping to school the competition this year.

After two wildly productive years in the desert, the Arizona Cardinals are in for a year of question marks and fresh challenges. Gone are the shotgun arm of QB Kurt Warner, and the sure hands of wide receiver Anquan Boldin. The team will now look to their former first round pick, Matt Leinart to lead the way. Young receiver Early Doucett will have to step up as well. With Warner’s pass heavy attack a thing of the past, the team will have to squeeze more out of their running game then they’ve seen in recent years.

Division: NFC West – Projected Finish: 2nd Place

Strength of Schedule - #32 = Best. The Cardinals are the fortunate benefactors of this years easiest schedule…at least on paper. This could help fantasy production, but it remains to be seen how much it well help overall.

QUARTERBACK

Leinart has his back to the wall in 2010

When the Cardinals drafted Matt Leinart in 2006 they expected big things in a hurry. Instead aging QB Kurt Warner stepped in and brought the team a Superbowl appearance and a couple of divisional titles.  Last year Leinart started one game and threw three picks against no touchdowns. Not exactly inspiring or fantasy viable. However they are in perhaps the NFL’s worst division with the easiest schedule, so if Leinart can’t make it happen this year the bust label is all but a forgone conclusion. I currently have him ranked 29th.

Remember, one time fantasy stud Derek Anderson is just waiting for the coaches to get frustrated with Lienart and give him a chance. Anderson likes to throw a lot and so do the Cards. Leinart will need a strong camp.

Sadly, this summer neither Cardinal QB has done nothing to inspire the coaches or the team with their performances. A trade for a third option may be looming.

RUNNING BACK

The Cardinals are blessed with two very skilled tailbacks, but so far neither has exploded into fantasy threats as expected. Though both have shown sparks of brilliance here and there. It seems apparent that both will have to step up in 2010 and Chris ‘Beanie’ Wells is expected to be the primary benefactor. However, Tim Hightower should not be discounted. The two were fairly even in fantasy production in 2009, but Hightower had the better numbers overall. I have them ranked at 17th and 40th respectively but I fear Wells may be too high and Hightower too low, making Hightower a likely sleeper this year and Wells a potential overreach in drafts.

WIDE RECEIVER

• Larry Fitzgerald – Usually the consensus number one fantasy WR. This year I move him to #10 just because of the team changes, and poor QB options.
• Steve Breaston – From 1000 yards in 2008 to 700 in 2009, both seasons only three TDs. He’s just not fantasy viable.
• Early Doucett - Out with the Boldin, with the new. Doucett is heading into that magical 3rd year. This is his time to step up and shine. He’s worth a later round flier.

TIGHT END

Tight End has long been a fantasy black hole in Arizona. Veteran Anthony Becht and 4th year pro Ben Patrick aren’t striking fear into the hearts of anyone. They combined for 3 TDs in 2009. Don’t expect that to change in 2010.

KICKER

Neil Rackers is out in Arizona, and 10 year veteran, Jay Feeley is in. Feely’s played the last two season’s with the New York Jets, and ended 2009 tied for seventh place in fantasy points at the position. The desert may be hell, but as the song goes, “hell ain’t a bad place to be.”

DEFENSE

From a fantasy perspective, the Cardinals weren’t that bad last year; 13th overall in fantasy points. This season they could improve upon those numbers playing against some weaker teams. For IDP players the names you want to know are: Linebackers – Daryl Washington. Defensive Backs – Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Adrian Wilson, and Kerry Rhodes. Defensive Linemen – Darnell Dockett and Calais Campbell.

2010 REGULAR SEASON SCHEDULE

Wk	Date	Game	Stadium	Time (ET)
1	Sep 12	ARI @ STL	Edward Jones Dome	4:15 PM
2	Sep 19	ARI @ ATL	Georgia Dome	1:00 PM
3	Sep 26	OAK @ ARI	University of Phoenix Stadium	4:15 PM
4	Oct 03	ARI @ SD	Qualcomm Stadium	4:15 PM
5	Oct 10	NO @ ARI	University of Phoenix Stadium	4:05 PM
6	Bye
7	Oct 24	ARI @ SEA	Qwest Field	4:05 PM
8	Oct 31	TB @ ARI	University of Phoenix Stadium	4:15 PM
9	Nov 07	ARI @ MIN	Mall of America Field	1:00 PM
10	Nov 14	SEA @ ARI	University of Phoenix Stadium	4:15 PM
11	Nov 21	ARI @ KC	Arrowhead Stadium	1:00 PM
12	Nov 29	SF @ ARI	University of Phoenix Stadium	8:30 PM
13	Dec 05	STL @ ARI	University of Phoenix Stadium	4:15 PM
14	Dec 12	DEN @ ARI	University of Phoenix Stadium	4:15 PM
15	Dec 19	ARI @ CAR	Bank of America Stadium	1:00 PM
16	Dec 25	DAL @ ARI	University of Phoenix Stadium	7:30 PM
17	Jan 02	ARI @ SF	Candlestick Park	4:15 PM

COACHING STRATEGY

Intense is my middle name!

OFFENSE

You can’t get much better in the coaching department than the guys who learned under Bill Cowher, Ken Whisenhunt and Russ Grimm. Head coach Whisenhunt took over in 2007 and the team went 8-8 and 2nd in the division, in 2008, 9-7 when they won the divisional title and went to the Superbowl. Last year saw his team go 10-6 with another divisional title before they lost to the eventual Superbowl champs in the NFC Divisional playoff.

Whisenhunt faces new challenges this season, but he has way of keeping his team competitive. I expect a drop-off in 2010, but nothing horrendous.

DEFENSE

On the other side of the ball, things only got better this off-season with the additions of rookie DT Dan Williams, and LB Daryl Washington. Both should improve their line upfront from day one. Grabbing veteran LB Joey Porter is a big boost, as well as stud DB Kerry Rhodes. But the team will need them both with the loss of veterans Karlos Dansby to the Dolphins, Antrel Rolle to the Giants and Betrand Berry to retirement. Defensive coordinator Bill Davis uses a leaning two-gap, 3-4 scheme.

Is Rolando McClain 2010's version of James Laurinaitis?

UPDATED: September 5, 2010

The Linebacker position is the easiest Individual Defensive Player (IDP) spot to draft for. There is more consistency at the position than Defensive Back, and greater depth than Defensive Lineman. And more so than the other two positions, stud rookie Linebackers tend to surface each season like Jerod Mayo, Patrick Willis, Brian Cushing and James Laurinaitis.

Which rookie linebacker is most likely to surprise this season with 100 tackles? We like Rolando McClain for the Oakland Raiders, but we think Darryl Washington could be a nice sleeper pick as well for the Arizona Cardinals.

Some may question my reasoning for putting David Hawthorne before Lafu Tatupa, but as we’ve already seen in camp this summer, Tatupa cannot stay healthy, making Hawthorne even more valuable.

Top 50 IDP Defensive Lineman Rankings

Top 50 IDP Defensive Back Rankings

Welcome to Top Fantasy Football’s Week 17 edition of “IDP Starts & Sits” brought to you by “The IDP Guru.”

This will be the final installment of “IDP Starts & Sits” for the 2009 season. It’s been a great ride and I’ve had a blast recommending players and answering all of your questions. FYI, I will continue to write articles during the off-season. These articles will focus on the effects of IDP free agent signings, changes in defensive schemes, IDP rookies and their potential fantasy impact, etc. As always, feel free to contact me anytime with any questions you may have and thanks for all your support!

Most leagues are over with and the league championship has already been decided. But, for you owners who are in 17 week leagues, I’m here for you with some great IDP Start/Sit advice.

But before I get started with my recommendations, here is something I stumbled upon when doing my research for today. If you like to laugh, it’s definitely worth a look: Congresswoman Corrine Brown – Go Gata (With Subtitles).

Anyways, here are my IDP Waiver Wire recommendations for Week 17:

Starts

*The IDP Guru’s Start of the Week*

MLB Stephen Tulloch - Tulloch has been one of the most consistent tackling fantasy linebackers in the league this year. And with both starting WLB Keith Bulluck and SLB David Thornton out for the year, Tulloch has little competition for tackles. He has the Seahawks this week who have surprisingly given up the second most fantasy points to opposing linebackers over the last 7 weeks. Tulloch is a must-start this week.

DEFENSIVE LINEMAN

Every Week Starters:
Jared Allen
Julius Peppers
Elvis Dumervil
Justin Tuck
Trent Cole
Mario Williams
Robert Mathis – INJURED (OUT)
Andre Carter
Dwight Freeney – WATCH PLAYING STATUS
Will Smith
Brian Orakpo

1. LDE Mathias Kiwanuka -With Osi Umenyiora being regulated to playing only in third- down passing situations, Kiwanuka has become the Giants starting LDE. In those two games in which he’s started, he’s posted 13 total tackles (11 solo) and he should be able to post some nice tackle numbers this week against Adrian Peterson and the Vikings.

2. LDE Calais Campbell – Campbell has been a solid DL3 this year and slightly upgrades to a DL2 this week against the Packers, who have done a much better job of protecting the quarterback the last six to eight weeks, but are still susceptible to giving up sacks.

3. RDE Vonnie Holliday – Holliday has quietly registered three sacks in his last four games and he has a nice matchup this week against the Kansas City Chiefs, who have one of the worst pass-blocking offensive lines in the league. I can see Holliday having a couple of solo tackles and a sack this week.

LINEBACKERS

Every Week Starters:
Patrick Willis
James Harrison
Jon Beason
Barrett Rudd
London Fletcher
D.J. Williams
Curtis Lofton
Kirk Morrison
Brian Cushing
David Harris
David Hawthorne
James Laurinaitis
Karlos Dansby – INJURED (PROBABLE)
Clint Session – WATCH PLAYING STATUS
Paul Posluszny
Jonathan Vilma

1. MLB Jasper Brinkley – Rookie Jasper Brinkley has played well since taking over for the injured MLB EJ Henderson two weeks ago (click here to see how Henderson was injured). From the games I’ve watched, Brinkley seems to be around the ball quite a bit. He has a very good matchup versus the Giants this week and should be a great end of the season filler.

2. LILB James Farrior - Compared to his fantasy production last year, Farrior is having somewhat of an off-year. However, he provides good value this week because of his matchup against the Dolphins. Inside linebackers tend to put up great fantasy numbers against Miami and Farrior is the Steelers most consistent tackler. He should be a safe play for 7-9 total tackles this week.

3. WLB Geno Hayes – Hayes has really started to come into his own the last few weeks of the season. He’s registered a sack in each of the last two games and is starting to put up some nice tackle numbers. His matchup against the Falcons isn’t a good one, but the last time he played them he went 9-0-0. I have a gut feeling Hayes may reproduce a similar stat line this week. If you’re feeling a little risky, Hayes could be a great play.

DEFENSIVE BACKS

Every Week Starters:
Eric Weddle – INJURED (QUESTIONABLE)
Charles Woodson
Troy Polamalu – INJURED (QUESTIONABLE)
Darren Sharper
Tyvon Branch
Antoine Bethea – WATCH PLAYING STATUS
Yeremiah Bell
Oshiomogho Atogwe – INJURED (PLACED ON IR 12/9)
Dashon Goldson
Bernard Pollard
Bryan Scott – INJURED (OUT)
Brian Dawkins

1. SS Mike Brown – I recommended Mike “Michelle” Brown last week and he really came through (13 total tackles). He has a fantastic matchup against the division rival Denver Broncos this week. I’m expecting another great game with Brown this week.

2. SS Chinedum “Nedu” Ndukwe – I expect a big game out of Ndukwe this week. He has a fantastic matchup against the Jets. This is a must-win game for the Jets and, with that being said, they are going to run the ball a ton with Thomas Jones. The Bengals will put 8 in the box (including Ndukwe) to stop him and force pretty boy Sanchez to actually make a play.

3. RCB Ronde Barber – Barber is having a pretty quiet year due to his lack of interceptions (zero). However, his tackles numbers are actually up slightly this year and he has a great matchup against Roddy White and the Falcons. I can see Barber producing some decent tackles numbers this week. If you have a good lead in your league and are looking to play it safe, Barber is a good play. He hasn’t had less than 4 solo tackles since Week 7.

Sits

*The IDP Guru’s Sit of the Week*

MLB DeAndre Levy – With Larry Foote possibly out for another game, Levy may once again slide into the starting MLB position. With that being said, I would typically recommend him. However, he’s facing the Bears this week who have given up the second least fantasy points to opposing linebackers the last seven weeks. Levy is a great dynasty pick but I would sit him this week.

DEFENSIVE LINEMAN

1. LDE Chris Kelsay – Kelsay has put up respectable numbers this season. But, I just don’t like the matchup against the Colts. Even with Curtis Painter under center, the Colts do an extremely good job of protecting the passer. Kelsay may have a difficult time getting to the quarterback this week.

2. RDE Greg Ellis – Ellis has managed 7 sacks this year even though he’s been hobbled by injuries for a majority of the season. He finally seems to be healthy, but the matchup this week against the Ravens is piss poor. I wouldn’t start Ellis this week.

LINEBACKERS

1. Nic Harris – Many people will be jumping on the waiver wire to pick up Harris after his 12 tackle performance last week filling in for WLB Bryan Scott. I think that given the right matchup, Harris could be a great pickup. However, the Colts are the absolute worst matchup an opposing fantasy linebacker can have. Be aware of falling into this potential trap!

2. WLB A.J. Hawk - Hawk has performed well this year from a strict football standpoint (he was just named as a NFC Pro Bowl alternate). However, his fantasy numbers have slowly been declining every year. He’s just not as productive, fantasy-wise, as he use to be. And his matchup against the Cardinals is not a good one.

DEFENSIVE BACKS

1.  SS Dawan Landry – Landry has performed fairly well this year. He’s posted 82 total tackles along with 4 INTs. However, I wouldn’t really recommend any safeties who are playing Oakland. The Raiders just don’t control the ball enough and, when they do, they have a difficult time getting into the secondary. Leave Landry on your bench this week.

2. SS Adrian “Big Name” Wilson – Remember when Adrian Wilson use to be, hands-down, the best fantasy DB in the game? Well, I do. In 2005, he had 109 total tackles, 8 sacks, 1 INT, and 9 PDs. He was a beast to say the least. However, after a defensive scheme change, Wilson’s fantasy production has been greatly reduced. He has had a slight resurgence the last 7 games and consequently many people are playing Wilson as the DB1 he used to be four years ago. Don’t be fooled by the recent production and the big name. Wilson is still a DB2 at very best and he has a horrible matchup this week against the Packers. I would be somewhat apprehensive about starting Mr. Wilson this week.

I hope you found this article to be helpful and enjoyable!

Please feel free to leave comments, questions, or derogatory remarks!

Thanks!

Ryan Sitzmann (The IDP Guru)

If you liked this article, make sure to check out my blog: The IDP Guru