Offensive Tackle Nate Solder

“Where’s the pass rush?”

Most New England fans wanted to see a big name pass rusher here, especially after Mel Kiper had been throwing around names like Cameron Jordan and Ryan Kerrigan. When is Mel Kiper ever wrong? Remember, for those of you not keeping track at home, Mel Kiper is the guy who scratched his head and got confused when the Patriots drafted Logan Mankins in the first round of the 2005 draft. Offensive linemen may not be the most exciting picks in the draft (and let’s face it, the draft is a hyped up entertainment event for TV when it’s really a big crapshoot), but you can bet your rear end that Tom Brady has been able to stay so good for so long because of the blocking he’s gotten from the likes of Mankins. Belichick is notorious for trading down out of his draft picks, and it’s become common for him not to make high first round picks. What players has he drafted in the top 20 in his Patriots tenure? Richard Seymour, Ty Warren, Jerod Mayo, and now Solder. It’s worth noting that other first round picks include Brandon Meriweather (24th), Vince Wilfork (21st), and Devin McCourty (27th).

More often than not, Bill Belichick hits on his first round draft picks, and most of the time they make fans scratch their heads. It’s pretty fitting that one of the most buzzed about, most liked drafts (in terms of draft grades that come out a week later, before any rookie has even set foot on the field) Belichick had ended up being by far his worst. In 2006 the Patriots were supposed to have struck gold with Laurence Maroney in the first round, Chad Jackson in the second round, and David Thomas in the third. The only one of these three who has even amounted to anything is Thomas, but he is by no means stellar. It just goes to show how valuable post-draft “grades” are. Back to the matter at hand, Belichick made this pick because Solder is basically an immovable object and the Patriots have to get ready to move on from Matt Light. They may even have to face a future without Logan Mankins, which would open up a huge hole on their line. Keeping the 34 year old Tom Brady upright has to be a top priority for the Patriots.

Cornerback Ras-I Dowling

“Still no pass rusher?”

Many fans ache over Belichick’s “terrible” drafting because instead of pass rushers Brooks Reed or Jabaal Sheard, the Pats elected to use the 33rd overall pick on often-injured cornerback Ras-I Dowling. It’s just too bad that the focus isn’t on how good of a cover corner Dowling is when healthy and how none of the injuries Dowling have battled should become long-term concerns. Additionally, look at the Patriots defensive backs. McCourty, a Pro Bowler in his rookie year, is a stud, but after that it’s almost safe to label Darius Butler a bust, and Kyle Arrington doesn’t seem good enough to be counted on in a major role. Sure Leigh Bodden is coming back, but after missing the entire 2010 season his health is a question mark, and if he returns to form, can it really hurt to have three really good cornerbacks? I think the Packers just won a Super Bowl with three guys named Woodson, Williams, and Shields, and you can never have too many stoppers in your secondary when you have to beat guys like Peyton Manning and Ben Roethlisberger to make a trip to the Super Bowl. Taking this all into account, I have yet to hear a good reason why the team with the worst third down conversion percentage on defense by far doesn’t need a cover corner. Sure a good secondary can only do so much without a good pass rush, but keep in mind the Patriots led the NFL in sacks in the second half of last season, have Ty Warren coming back for 2011, should be able to see developmental progress from Jermaine Cunningham and Rob Ninkovich, and can also target some pretty good free agents. It’s not Bill Belichick’s philosophy to draft pass rushers as most of them bust, so it’s not the end of the world that he neglected this area of need in the draft. This is a problem that could probably fix itself if given another year.

Running back Shane Vereen

“This might be alright, but waiting on that pass rusher…”

After an ACL tear last season coupled with his advanced age, Kevin Faulk is probably done. They shouldn’t count on him to come back, and even if he does Fred Taylor is gone. As likable as he is, BenJarvus Green-Ellis just didn’t force any defenses to respect New England’s running game, so even though Green-Ellis and Woodhead seems like a capable tandem, this is an upgrade that had to be made. Vereen provides more of a home run threat than Green-Ellis (who will probably still do most of the heavy lifting on the ground), who was rather pedestrian against better-than-average defensive units. The Law Firm is serviceable and a fan favorite, but if he’s not going to keep the defense from loading up on defensive backs to stifle Tom Brady, they’ve got to find a running back who will. Around this point of the draft the Patriots could have taken a pass rusher like Justin Houston, but Belichick obviously didn’t see a fit for his defensive schemes. If he did, he would have pulled the trigger on somebody.

Running back Stevan Ridley

“What..the…hell?”

Last season, New England’s running back rotation was Green-Ellis, Woodhead, Fred Taylor, Kevin Faulk, and Sammy Morris. The Pats can’t expect Faulk to come back and Taylor’s contract is expiring. Taylor is old, hasn’t shown that he’s got a lot left in his tank, and thus is expendable. Sammy Morris is pretty old too, which means the only guys the Patriots have whom they can count on going forward are Green-Ellis and Woodhead. And only time will tell whether or not Woodhead is for real or just a one year wonder who quickly gained a cult following. Still, for a team that spreads its carries around, it’s not like the Patriots to go with two backs. Vereen and Ridley are upgrades over the veterans they have and will become developmental guys who may be able to carry a big load for the offense if needed. Taking two running backs back-to-back may look just downright stupid to some, but taking two tight ends named Gronkowski and Hernandez worked out all right last year. Best case scenario could be the same sort of results out of the backfield. Imagine the passing lanes a more electric running game could open up.

Quarterback Ryan Mallett

“Now this is interesting, but a pass rusher would be nice”

As a Patriots fan, even I was confused that the Pats didn’t select a defensive lineman to this point (mostly because bust-rate of pass rushers aside, it’s hard to downgrade from Brandon Deaderick and Gerard Warren), but I think the consensus of the entire fanbase is that this was a very good pick for the Pats. Tom Bradly (tragically) won’t be around forever, and at 34 it’s not too early to start grooming a successor. Mallett has the arm, the accuracy, and the football IQ to be a true big-time QB, but his behavioral issues scared most teams away. Where better for him to mature than New England? They even kept Randy Moss in line for a few years, and in general this is just a locker room with a history for keeping immature players in line. If he doesn’t work out, he can be cut at no cost. If it does work out, the Pats just used a measly third round draft pick for a guy who could turn out so good that the Patriots don’t even lose a step after Brady retires.

Offensive Lineman Marcus Cannon

This isn’t the last guy the Pats drafted, but frankly it’s the last guy I’ve even heard of and to be blunt, probably the lowest-selected guy in New England’s draft class who has a good chance to amount to anything. Cannon has been described by pundits as “first or second round talent” but fell all the way down to round 5 because of a treatable form of cancer. He will miss likely all of the upcoming season from chemotherapy and his recuperation, but the year after that he’ll be back, and if he can beat cancer, he’s got the willpower to succeed in the NFL. Like Solder, Cannon is one of those immovable objects and his blocking prowess will probably lead to Tom Brady buying the man a few steaks before the golden boy’s career is all said and done. In 2011 he won’t have an impact barring something incredible and miraculous, but in the long run he is the successor to retired guard Stephen Neal and may move over to the other side of the line if the disgruntled Logan Mankin jumps ship. Not a pass rusher, but in a division filled with elite pass rushers, Bill Belichick has shown he’s one step ahead of the game once again by loading up on blockers to negate the blitzing.

As always, the NFL Draft is a total crapshoot, and it’s completely pointless to try and grade the drafting mere days after teams are through making their selections. With my concluding thought, I’d just like to remind everyone that it’s usually a good thing when Bill Belichick’s decision-making confuses everyone else.

• Correll Buckhalter (DEN) – If Knowshon Moreno continues to sit with a hamstring injury, expect Buckhalter to get more playing time because Laurence Maroney hasn’t taken advantage of his opportunity.  I don’t expect much, but it’s an option to consider.
• LeGarrette Blount (TB) – If you haven’t heard, the Buccaneers are splitting carries among Carnell Williams, Kareem Huggins and LeGarrette Blount, with Blount getting a lot of carries.  He’s still a large unknown, and hemight knock someone out any moment, but he’s worth a look in deep leagues.
• Chester Taylor (CHI) – Matt Forte has been awful on the ground this year, and I see a shift in workload approaching.  The Bears are too good to wait on Forte to come around, so jump on Taylor if he’s available.
• Chris Ivory (NO) - With Pierre Thomas still hurt, Chris Ivory (right) will probably get another opportunity this week against Arizona.  Ivory was efficient last week and had a good showing the preseason.  He seems like a tough RB that could do damage if given the shot.

Now that we’ve looked over some players to pick up, let’s see who you should start in week 5:

And here is who to sit in Week 5:

Start of the Week

Week 3 saw Adrian Peterson and Chris Johnson strut their stuff, Michael Turner got back to doing what Michael Turner does, Peyton Hillis ran for 144 yards on Baltimore and Darren McFadden continued his assault on team rushing defenses. Jerome Harrison has officially disappeared, Jahvid Best looked like a rookie and Benjarvus Green-Ellis made his presence felt with New England troubled with running back injuries. But now in week 4, the matchups change a bit, but the statistics stay the same.

Here is the week 4 RB start sit

Start:

Week 4 Running Back Start of the Week Maurice Jones-Drew, JAX vs IND:

Outside of the big guns in AP and CJ, MJD is a great start this week because of the state of the Colts defense and his slow start by injury early this year. This is a dream matchup for MJD, especially with his numbers from last four games versus Indianapolis being through the roof. Took a look:

• Game 1: 27 rushes, 110 yards, TD; 5 rec, 30 yards, TD
• Game 2: 21 rushes, 97 yards, TD; 5 rec 26 yards
• Game 3: 20 rushes, 91 yards; 7 rec, 71 yards
• Game 4: 19 rushes, 107 yards, TD; 4 rec, 59 yards

Start: Arian Foster, HOU @ OAK:

Oakland has given up an average of 110 yards rushing a week. Arian Foster will get back to his week one ridiculousness and show you why you should start every running back that ever plays Oakland. With Matt Schaub setting up the run the entire game, Arian Foster will see plenty of work throughout this matchup.

Start: Benjarvus Green-Ellis, NE @ MIA:

It is just a matter of elimination here; with no Fred Taylor, Laurence Maroney and Kevin Faulk, you just need to go with the healthy back here. There will be a lot of points scored in this matchup and Tom Brady won’t be throwing five touchdowns. BGE ran the ball 16 times for 98 yards and a TD last week versus Buffalo and will continue to get those looks as long as he stays the number one back.

Start: LaDanian Tomlinson, NYJ @ BUF:

The Jets have made it clear LT is their RB, for the people that drafted Shonn Greene in the first and second round of their fantasy football league are literally pulling their hair out. LT has out rushed Shonn in each of the three games this season for New York and I see this week at Buffalo being the same type of ordeal with LT scoring a touchdown.

Sit:

Week 4 Running Back Sit of the Week Carolina Running Backs:

At the current moment, I want absolutely nothing to do with anything going on with the Carolina Panthers, especially going on the road with a rookie QB versus the Super Bowl Champions off of a divisional loss. With OT Jeff Otah questionable this weekend for Carolina, I just do not like the start for DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart.

Sit: Beanie Wells, ARI @ SD:

Playing in San Diego, mixed with coming off of an injury and sharing carries with Tim Hightower, Beanie Wells does not look like the best start this week. I know last week he rushed for 75 yards on three more carries than Hightower got, but I am just not feeling a rushing TD in store for him at San Diego.

Sit: Ray Rice, BAL @PIT:

Playing in Pittsburgh, mixed with coming off a sprained knee and without a doubt sharing carries with Willis McGahee [sound familiar], Ray Rices’ start versus Baltimore this weekend should not be a start on your fantasy team. Rice has somewhat struggled so far this season not rushing yet for 100 yards and not scoring a TD.

Sit: Correll Buckhalter/Laurence Maroney, DEN @ TEN:

With Chris Johnson controlling the pace of this game for Tennessee, I do not see Maroney and Buckhalter doing loads of damage to the Titans defense. With the injury to Knowshon Moreno, the Broncos are struggling to find their identity and I expect them to pass the ball a ton in this game because of this season’s positive results for Kyle Orton [already over 1000 yards passing].

Waiver Wire Predictions

This week on the waiver wire we have some injuries, some good matchups and a pair of fullbacks making a big fantasy impact all over the league. With Steven Jackson and Ray Rice hobbled after week 3, both their backups look to find the end zone in week 4 at home. Even if you are 0-3 at this point, the waiver wire can be the key to the rest of your season, so make sure you pay attention every Sunday for injuries. Here is your waiver wire for week 4.

Waiver Wire: Willis McGahee, RB, Baltimore Ravens: McGahee has scored 15 touchdowns in his last 18 regular season games. When this guy doesn’t start he smells the end zone. I know matchup with Pittsburgh is not pretty, but Baltimore will put points on the board. McGahee has 4 total touchdowns in 6 games versus Pittsburgh.

Waiver Wire: Bruce Gradkowski, QB, Oakland Raiders: With the matchup versus Houston, I expect a whole lot of points in this matchup. I also expect the Raiders to be trailing in this game, which bodes well for Bruce. The Texans have allowed an average of 26 points a game so far this season; they are vulnerable on defense and Gradkowski might just have a decent day in desperate two QB leagues.

Waiver Wire: Peyton Hillis, RB, Cleveland Browns and John Kuhn, FB/RB, Green Bay Packers: Both of these former college fullbacks are making their presence felt on their respective clubs. Hillis has won the job from Jerome Harrison, and absolutely torched the Ravens last week, now he sees the Bengals and his carries should be about the same. Kuhn rushed the ball six times for 31 yards and caught two passes for 20 yards versus the Bears, Brandon Jackson only rushed the ball seven times for 21 yards. Kuhn has outperformed Jackson two weeks in a row now, and they have Detroit next week [sounds good to me].

Waiver Wire: Benjarvus Green-Ellis, RB, New England Patriots: With Fred Taylor hobbled, Laurence Maroney traded, Kevin Faulk gone and Sammy Morris playing the disappearing act, the “law firm” [BGE] is a great play this week to score a touchdown Monday night at Miami. BGE rushed the ball sixteen times for 98 yards and a touchdown versus Buffalo last week, and with the continued injuries to the Patriots running game, their RBBC just turned into a one man show.

Waiver Wire: Kenneth Darby, RB, St. Louis Rams: With Steven Jackson hurting at the moment, it looks like Kenneth Darby will get the start on Sunday for the Rams when they play the Seahawks. Darby is a totally different type of back than Jackson, expect him to catch a few passes and be a part of the offense this week, especially with key injuries to the Seahawks defense and his touchdown he scored last week versus the Redskins [Marcus Trufant, Aaron Curry and Russell Okung].

Waiver Wire: LeGarrette Blount, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: This week the Bucs are on their bye, that does not mean you should not be looking ahead to the rest of the season. Buy LeGarrette Blount because Cadillac has rushed the ball 55 times for 139 yards [2.5 YPC] and is simply ineffective so far this season. Earnest Graham has rushed the ball 9 times this season for 24 yards [2.2 YPC], neither of these guys are in jeopardy of taking any carries away from Blount at any point this season. The Bucs are 2-1 and Cadillac still hasn’t left the preseason garage yet this year, if he does not decide to produce real soon his job will be gone.

Matt Ryan went and had himself a ball game with 3 touchdown passes, while Eli Manning, with his three turnovers against Indy, once again looked like he needed a juice box on the sideline. He will forever be like that kid on your little league team trying to jam his straw through the bottom of his Capri Sun, pouting. Malcom Floyd proved that he can be the Chargers’ big play guy, with 3 catches for 95 yds and a TD. Even Steve Smith wasn’t quite a dud as he produced the Panthers sole TD early on. The unpronounceable Visanthe Shiancoe continues to prove he is one of the most consistent tight ends in the game with another solid 80+ yd contribution, while Jermaine Gresham is still coming terms with the fact that it’s hard out there for a rookie.

Week 3 will allow certain outfits, such as the Chiefs, Dolphins, Bears, and Buccaneers to prove that they are for real, while the winless Cowboys, 49ers, and Vikings must show that they are better than their most recent performances have suggested. I hope that the below phrase provides you with some insight into the conundrum that is Week 3 of the NFL fantasy season; Good Night, and Good Luck.

Quarterback

Stud: Tony Romo

In terms of overall performance, the Dallas Cowboys have been a bit of an enigma. While it is clear that they have plenty of talent scattered throughout the skill positions, they just have been unable to put it all together. As it stands right now, the Cowboys and Tony Romo have the 2^nd most prolific pass offense in the NFL having thrown for 656 yards (on a league high 98 attempts) in the first two games. Those stats are quite impressive, but it has only resulted in two through the air touchdowns. Romo no longer wants to throw the ball 50 times a game and instead, wants to balance their attack. However, I see that as being kind of an impossibility as they roll into Houston. Yes, Houston is 2-0, but they also sport the worst passing defense in the league, giving up 822 yard. Their opposing QBs have completed 71.6% of their passes in just their first two games. One could argue that these dismal numbers were because of the elite quarterbacks they faced, (Peyton Manning and Donovan McNabb) but Romo is no slouch. I see this game being quite the shootout with Romo finally hitting the end zone, and the deep threat this is Miles Austin, multiple times.

Honorable Mention: Matt Schaub, because you know that one of these guys, if not both, is due to go off.

Dud: Kyle Orton

Week 3 will finally bring Kyle Orton and the Broncos offense back to Earth

Orton and the Broncos’ offense has been one of the major fantasy surprises of the season. So far he has out thrown the likes of McNabb, Palmer, Brady and even Brees, but still has not actually received the kind of attention that typically goes along with such performances. I have a feeling that this week will highlight why. Orton has only preyed upon mid tier teams at this early stage in the season, putting up decent numbers against teams he should be putting up solid numbers, such as Jacksonville (a game they lost) and Seattle. Week 3 should be a different story. This week they face an Indianapolis team that has already slowed down two of the hottest passers in the NFL, Matt Schaub (107 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT in week 1) and Eli Manning (161 yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT in week 2). Orton’s performance should be no different. Odds are, the Broncos will remain behind for most of the game, fully utilizing their running backs, Correll Buckhalter and whoever’s left (a Laurence Maroney sighting, perhaps?), to keep them in the game and the Indy offense off the field.

Running Back

Stud: Rashard Mendenhall

So far this season Rashard Mendenhall has been a fantasy underachiever, apart from his break out run in OT against the Falcons. We have all been waiting for him to break out of his shell and with his flux and uncertainty within their offensive unit, become the Steelers’ go to guy. Now, more than ever, with Charlie Batch under center, the Steelers need to improve their running game, and furthermore, take over. That will happen this week. The gameplan for the Steelers this week will be conservative. They are going to pound the ball on the ground with Mendenhall as the focal point against a Tampa Bay defense (a defense that gives up 110+ yards per game on the ground as it is). Running focused attacks, using conservative play calling, and throwing in a weaker Tampa defense should formulate a recipe for success for Mendenhall fantasy owners.

Honorable Mention: Pierre Thomas because without Reggie Bush it all falls on him.

Dud: DeAngelo Williams

What everyone was hoping to get from Carolina this season simply has not happened. There was hope when Matt Moore made a surge late last season and the dual headed rushing attack of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart were tearing teams apart, but now? Not so much. Carolina has looked suspect, especially their highly touted running game. Neither guy has been able to step forward and take over a game or assert their will on the opposition. While Williams is their go to guy, he has yet to show that he is truly an every down back. Throughout these last two weeks, he has only amassed 116 yds on 33 carries and ZERO touchdowns. In order for the Panthers to find any success they will need to get this guy going and lead him straight into the end zone. Unfortunately, I don’t think this is that kind of week for Williams. Week 3 pits Williams and the Panthers against a tough Bengals D that dominated the Ravens, and last week was able to hold Ray Rice in check (relatively speaking). Williams will need to do something truly special to get out of the Dud hole he dug for himself this coming week.

Wide Receiver

Stud: Santana Moss

Santana Moss has quickly become Donovan McNabb's primary target and will finally hit pay dirt this week

Thus far in 2010, Santana Moss has been one of the most efficient first option receivers in the league. On 22 targets, Moss has hauled in 16 receptions for 166 yards. The only reason that he hasn’t really popped up on any major radar screens is because he has yet to score a touchdown, even in the shootout with Houston. For once, this may be a good thing. The Redskins have looked surprisingly sharp, and for once, have a quarterback (McNabb) that is able to stretch a defense with his arm. The past few years they have been far too complacent, settling instead with short passes. These short and underneath passes have wasted the speed Moss brings to the table. Coming off a big 10 catch day last Sunday, it seems as though Moss and McNabb have found mutual rhythm and will be out for blood after that heart wrenching defeat. Look for Moss to get the ball early, often, and at all different parts of the field. This should make it interesting for a struggling Rams secondary, which just allowed big games from the likes of Louis Murphy (91 yds) and Steve Breaston (132 yds).

Honorable Mention: DeSean Jackson, we all know Michael Vick can run, but he doesn’t seem to mind throwing it his way with much frequency

Dud: Brandon Marshall

It is a bold statement, but what have we seen from this guy otherwise so far in Miami? Not a whole hell of a lot. Don’t get me wrong he has been solid (12 catches for 124 yards is nothing to scoff at) but he hasn’t been churning out the Pro Bowl type performances everyone was expecting when he landed in Miami. Like Santana mentioned above, Marshall too has yet to reach the end zone. However, Moss is on a pass first squad and his opportunities to get the ball in the red zone are much more frequent, whereas Marshall is on a team that seems to be content to live and die by their running game. Marshall was held to only 4 catches in the opening week game against a tough Bills secondary. Now he faces the Jets and Antonio Cromartie. Antonio Cromartie is coming off a two interception performance against the Patriots where he all but shut down Randy Moss in the second half. Marshall vs. Cromartie will be an entertaining matchup, but one that ultimately will fall in favor of the Jets. Sorry South Beach.

Tight End

Stud: Antonio Gates

Antonio Gates has been the most consistent Red Zone threat in the NFL so far this season with 3 TDs in two games

Now, more than ever, the Chargers need their veteran tight end to step up and lead the offense. The wide receiver corps is young and still searching for some sort of identity, but Gates has been their rock on offense ever since he joined the team. He has been having another solid campaign this year and is the Chargers primary option in the red zone. He leads the team with 10 catches, but more importantly in fantasy terms, 3 of those 10 catches have been for touchdowns. Week 3 gives the Chargers a decent test against a schizophrenic Seahawks team whose 26^th ranked secondary has been the only consistency. In their opening week game against the 49ers, even though they won, they allowed Vernon Davis to run wild with 8 catches for 73 yards. Against Denver in Week 2 everyone seemed to get in on a piece of the action. The Chargers wide outs are just as diverse as the Broncos’ but when you add a big, strong presence like Gates to the mix, it is only going to make matters worse for the Seahawks (or better if you’re a Gates owner).

Dud: Kellen Winslow

I know I continue to throw this guy under the bus on a relatively consistent basis, mostly out of jest, but this week I really mean it: he is going to be a bust. For realsies. Winslow is Tampa Bay’ s leading receiver, and really their only go to guy down the field. But even with a relatively light early schedule, he has failed to produce a touchdown or, besides one forty yard grab last week, even a relative threat downfield. Now the young Buccaneers face a Pittsburgh team that has already shut down Tony Gonzalez (37 yds) and Bo Scaife (20 yds) and forced a litany of turnovers. Do not expect anything from Winslow this week, or maybe even the next two weeks… @CIN, vs. NO.

The fantasy implications are… intriguing. The Broncos have Correll Buckhalter and recently acquired Laurence Maroney as backups, but neither has been very effective this year. And yet Moreno, who has just 111 yards on 39 carries this season with one touchdown, hasn’t been much of a fantasy rockstar, either.

Smart money says start Kyle Orton and the Colts’ defense.