MY MISSION STATEMENT
(or, to read more about how I detest mission statements, click here)
What frustrates me above all else are so-called fantasy advice columns that fit into one of two categories:
1) They refuse to stray from conventional wisdom, often until it’s weeks too late to save or help your season or
2) They only offer rankings commentary on the “big-name” guys that everyone knows to play anyway. Gee, Adrian Peterson will have a bounce back week and I shouldn’t bench him for Danny Woodhead? Thanks!
Each week I will examine what I consider to be the most pressing issues facing fantasy owners. I will try to focus only on issues that you may actually be concerned with, namely: marginal flex players, tough matchup decisions, and above all else, how to assimilate new information from the previous week. This is a column of the people, by the people, for the people (thanks, Abe). And as long as I’m offering oaths, I promise to always tackle the difficult questions as I see them, not be chained by conventional wisdom, and not allow traditional or draft-position bias to affect my weekly rankings.

1. Ray Rice
2. LeSean McCoy
3. Darren McFadden
4. Adrian Peterson
5. Arian Foster
6. Matt Forte
7. Fred Jackson
8. Calvin Johnson
9. Wes Welker
10. Greg Jennings
11. Maurice Jones-Drew
12. Michael Turner
13. Mike Wallace
14. Frank Gore
15. Ahmad Bradshaw

The Big Boys
This week’s top-15 should show, fairly clearly, the separation of 2011 running backs into fairly clear tiers, or at least one fairly clear tier: the top one. I think backs 1-7, above, are definitely a level above all others. I was very tempted to rank Calvin Johnson as no. 1 overall in my flex rankings this week, but I can’t help feeling that sooner or later someone will get to Matthew Stafford or at least figure out to triple-team Megatron. Maybe not. And probably not this week. Mike Wallace has been consistent, and looking at those directly below him, I feel fairly confident ranking him as highly as I have. I am low(ish) on Gore this week simply because of the matchup. I think this game could be ugly. How interesting that just a year or two ago we’d be playing any fantasy back against the Lions, and ranking them highly. I just have a sensation that this might get out of hand, and while Gore could stay involved in the passing game, keep in mind he still has Alex Smith throwing to him, even if it is on a short dump-off.

16. Cedric Benson
17. Hakeem Nicks
18. Steve Smith
19. Peyton Hillis
20. Jahvid Best
21. Jimmy Graham
22. Miles Austin
23. Steven Jackson
24. Darren Sproles
25. DeSean Jackson
26. Steve Johnson
27. BenJarvus Green-Ellis
28. Roddy White
29. Jeremy Maclin
30. Dez Bryant

Early Trends
Apart from the “Ocean” game with Jacksonville, Steve Smith has scored in double digits every week. With Newton at the helm, we have to recognize his production will continue. Same with Jimmy Graham: he is arguably the number one threat in the Saints offense, one of the best offenses in football. A quick check of what Jackie Battle did to the Colts last week should explain my ranking of Cedric Benson. While I don’t think he’s a stud, comparing him to similar backs of the same tier, I don’t like anyone else’s chances enough to rank them ahead of Benson. I’m not convinced I have the Eagles receivers in the correct order. Maclin is receiving plenty of targets and will likely cash them in for a big day sooner rather than later. While my ranking of Peyton Hillis really feels like a “name” rank, I also recognize Oakland can be run on, and what else does Cleveland have to do with the ball?

31. Jason Witten
32. Felix Jones
33. A.J. Green
34. Marques Colston
35. Jermichael Finley
36. Santana Moss
37. James Starks
38. Daniel Thomas
39. Pierre Garcon
40. Anquan Boldin
41. Aaron Hernandez
42. Reggie Wayne
43. Owen Daniels
44. Shonn Greene
45. Tony Gonzalez
46. Rashard Mendenhall
47. Santonio Holmes
48. Jordy Nelson
49. Victor Cruz
50. Rob Gronkowski

The Year of the Tight End
Go ahead, make it the thirteenth symbol of the Zodiac. 2011: the year of the tight end. If only Antonio Gates was healthy. Tony Gonzalez was held out of the endzone last week but still had six catches for 60 yards. Owen Daniels should continue to pick up the slack for Andre Johnson. Aaron Hernandez didn’t have a monster week, but if you watched the game tape you would see Tom Brady looking for him numerous times on long, down-the-field routes. If he converted one of those passes (several were simply overthrown by Brady, who will be more accurate as the two get back on track), Hernandez would have had a huge day. Also, Dallas-New England has the potential to be a shootout. I think Cruz has officially surpassed Manningham in terms of fantasy relevance. While I would rather not rank Mendenhall this low, he has too many questions. More importantly, he has not been very productive this year to-date. With Curtis Painter starting, Pierre Garcon has 7 catches for 271 yards and four touchdowns. Uhhh… wow.

51. DeAngelo Williams
52. Percy Harvin
53. Plaxico Burress
54. Earnest Graham
55. Ryan Torain
56. Tim Hightower
57. Brandon Marshall
58. James Jones
59. Deion Branch
60. Mike Thomas
61. David Nelson
62. Greg Olsen
63. LaDanian Tomlinson
64. Johnathan Stewart
65. Mark Ingram
66. Delonte Carter
67. Robert Meachem
68. Vernon Davis
69. Ryan Grant
70. Mike Williams
71. Julio Jones – officially ruled OUT for week 6
72. Jacoby Jones
73. Darrius Heyward-Bey
74. Brandon Pettigrew
75. Lance Moore

Question Marks
What will Ryan Grant’s role be in Green Bay? I think sadly he is moving into fantasy obscurity. Julio Jones would and should be much higher- I think last week was a blip- if not for questions about his hamstring. Even if he plays, he could be limited or tweak it and be done. Usually I stay away from such scenarios if I have reasonable alternatives. Delone Carter might be ranked far too low, especially if Joseph Addai is indeed out, which I expect to be the case. In a similar case, Earnest Graham may deserve moved up a few notches, especially since he is on the field in passing situations anyway. Meanwhile, where has Mike Williams gone? I’m not sure, but if this trend continues he may also soon be gone from these ranks. I don’t know what to make of the Redskins backfield, and perhaps neither does Mike Shannahan. They have three usable backs, all with talent, all who could help your fantasy roster if they were guaranteed the most of the carries. Since none of them are, we can’t trust any of them. Best of luck if you have to play them.

As always, you can tweet lineup questions to @petethegreekff. Enjoy week 6!

_PDK

For many of you out there that are not familiar with NEXFL, the NEXFL is the National Experts Fantasy League. It is a 32-team league that includes Offense and Individual Defensive Players (IDP) and only has one “copy” of a player. There are a few other 32-team leagues out there, but many have two “copies” of a player (i.e. two teams can own Adrian Peterson, etc.). That is not the case in NEXFL. This is not a league for the unseasoned or casual fantasy fan. The draft is 23 rounds and amounts to over 730 picks that are selected through an online draft over the span of approximately a month. The purpose of NEXFL is to establish a league that is unlike any other. The concept was originally developed by Ryan “The Warden” Houston and later enhanced by George “SpiGuy” Kerwood and now Tom “Tomdiggs” Digliani in the hopes of providing fantasy football enthusiasts with a much more difficult and challenging task: Represent an NFL team and create the ultimate Fantasy Football team with precious resources. Do you have what it takes to compete?

To take a look at the teams and rosters for this season, check out the league site:

http://www14.myfantasyleague.com/2011/home/44638

Now, here is my personal analysis of this year’s teams and projections. These are my opinions and mine alone as the commissioner and avid NEXFL enthusiast.

For those that want to take part next year, start studying up on your IDP and deep sleepers. Then follow the league from afar throughout the league and let me know your interest so I can place you on a waiting list for the 2012 season. The league usually has 6-8 vacancies that open up per year.

Without further ado, here’s the league as I see it through my crystal ball.

AFC East
1. Bills – The reigning AFC Champs return with another solid squad. Vlad looks to be forming the basis for being an annual contender now after breaking through to the playoffs for the first time last season. While Alex Smith will hurt him in a division filled with exceptional QBs, the Bills’ depth and strength at WR and LB will carry them. If Dez Bryant does not pan out or if Austin Collie gets hurt then they could be in trouble. I expect big things from both, however. D’Qwell Jackson and Jonathan Vilma will carry the D and will be helped a lot by Trent Cole and Morgan Burnett. The real player to watch for the Bills is Lance Kendricks. If he stands out during the year like he has this preseason then this team could be dangerous. If one of many risks goes awry they could fall out of the playoff picture. I want to predict a better record, but with all the risks and with Alex Smith I need to temper expectations. Prediction: 8-5

2. Dolphins – Jerm has once again put together a tough squad. Joe Flacco, Mike Thomas, and Wes Welker will help carry the offense. The D has some good players in Robert Mathis, Jon Beason and Kevin Burnett. Beason’s early season injury is one to watch. If he misses time it could doom the Dolphins’ chances out of the gate in the early divisional games. I see them being slightly off of the Bills in running for the division crown. Prediction: 7-6

3. Patriots – The Pats may have a new NEXFL owner this year, but they drafted well. Michael Vick will be the first piece that will help carry this offense. However, there is some serious offensive talent here in addition to Vick with Rashard Mendenhall, Pierre Garcon and Greg Olsen. Olsen could be a gem in this league. The defense has some nice balance with AJ Hawk, Daryl Smith and Devin McCourty leading the way. Depth is an issue. There isn’t much at DL and Paris Lenon and Keith Brooking may not be starting for their NFL teams for very long. A good, but not great rookie year for the Pats. Prediction: 5-8

4. Jets – Just like the NFL Colts; this team’s status relies on Peyton Manning’s health. Manning will run this offense with Michael Turner, but a lack of talent at WR and LB could possibly hurt this team. James Jones and Plaxico Burress need to step up to help this team. Jason Witten should remain a stud. The DBs may all be cornerbacks, but having Charles Tillman, Richard Marshall and DeAngelo Hall will help offset the lack of talent at LB. Clay Matthews and Tamba Hali really need big years to help this D out. Prediction: 4-9

Summary: This division went from being one of the deepest last year to being a little thin this year in my opinion. I only see one team coming out of this division into the playoffs. Currently everyone is chasing the Bills in my opinion.

AFC North
1. Browns – Wow what a difference a year makes. Dave went from a 5-8 owner last year to maybe assembling the best team in the NEXFL this year! Colt McCoy, Maurice Jones-Drew, DeSean Jackson, Steve Smith (Car), Braylon Edwards and Fred Davis make for a damn scary offense. The defense has some great LBs for a 32-team league in Nick Barnett, Stewart Bradley and Rocky McIntosh. Even the DBs have potential with Glover Quinn and William Moore leading the way. The only real weakness on this team is along the D-Line. There is not much there. Not a bad spot to be weak. I am not looking to facing them in week 8. Prediction: 10-3

2. Ravens – Yergs is in the running every single year and this is why. He just builds a ridiculously balanced team. Shonne Greene, Andre Johnson, Julio Jones and Brandon Pettigrew will make for a great base for the offense. His defense could be scary. Carlos Dunlap and Justin Tuck make for a great pairing at DL and they are filled in the starting lineup with Geno Hayes, Clint Session and Brandon Spikes. As long as the LBs can stay healthy (no small task with Spikes and Session already missing time), then this team will be in playoff contention. Prediction: 8-5

3. Bengals – Mike may be a new owner here, but his team turned out pretty well for his first NEXFL draft. Kevin Kolb will form a lethal one-two punch with Ray Rice on offense. If Dallas Clark stays healthy, he could be the best offensive player on the team. The WRs will decide how good this team can be. Nate Burleson, Michael Jenkins and Andre Roberts will all be NFL starters, but may not offer much punch in the box score. If they step up on offense, there is definitely enough on defense (Gary Brackett, Donald Butler, Cliff Avril, Patrick Peterson, and Antrel Rolle) to help buoy this team to the edge of playoff contention. Might be a bit tough in this division, however. Prediction: 6-7

4. Steelers – George is a seasoned vet of this league. I seemingly never like his teams and half the time I am right and half the time I am dead wrong. This year I am not high again. I love Matt Schaub and Matt Forte leading the offense and I like Todd Heap with how much Kevin Kolb has historically used the TE. The WRs are suspect though. If Steve Smith (Phi) and Eddie Royal can become decent fantasy contributors, then this team will prove me wrong. If they don’t the offense could be hurting a bit. Paul Posluszny and DeMeco Ryans will help carry the defense along with Dawan Landry. However, a lack of a third starting LB could hurt the overall production. Prediction: 3-10

Summary: This division might be close and is very good at the top. I do not like the fact that my AFC South division crosses over with this division this season. I definitely see two playoff teams coming out of this division. The Browns are the team to beat here and maybe in the AFC and entire NEXFL.

AFC South
1. Colts – Just as I said last year, some people do not rate their own teams. I say that is a cop-out! I have no problem addressing the likes and dislikes of my own team. I love my starting WRs, TEs and LBs. Last year I was 10-0 with Matt Hasselbeck as my QB. This was with him having less explosive options, less of an O-Line and less of a running game in Seattle then he will have in Tennessee this year. I think he could finish around the 20th rated QB and that should be just enough to help out. RB is a problem spot yet again. I lost my best one (Ryan Williams) for the year and will now have to rely on Reggie Bush yet again. Not good in a non-ppr RB league. Greg Jennings, Kenny Britt, Michael Crabtree, Jared Cook and Rob Gronkowski should help cover me though. I may have picked the wrong NE tight end, but if so that is my biggest regret on offense. My DL was terrible last year so I tried to fix that this year. I love having Julius Peppers and Matt Roth to start the year while Derrick Morgan gets healthy. The DBs are not stellar, but they do consist of a few high tackle CBs. I clearly need Tanard Jackson to get reinstated or I am in trouble here. The LBs lack depth but are big at the top. Despite losing Travis Goethel to a season ending injury already (yes, another), I still have David Hawthorne, Daryl Washington and NaVorro Bowman. That is likely three-100 tackle LBs and two with the chance to be 120 tackle guys. I like my team but have a brutal schedule and will not touch last year’s 10-3 record. Prediction: 9-4

2. Jaguars – I am getting sick of the Jags putting together good drafts. They are clearly putting pressure on this division. I cringe at facing this offense. Matthew Stafford, Michael Bush/Daniel Thomas, Miles Austin, Danny Amendola, Jermichael Finley…are you kidding? Even the extras like Harry Douglas are serviceable. The only hope is that the LBs do not perform. Having four starting NFL LBs is a luxury in this league and the Jags have them. None are exceptional, but Sean Lee, Chris Gocong, Michael Boley and Moise Fokou are good enough to keep the D afloat. Their O is probably better than the Colts, but the D might be a tiny bit behind. Close call. Prediction: 8-5

3. Titans – This team has the potential to steal the division away from the Colts of the Jaguars. Brandon Marshall and Percy Harvin are a hell of a one-two punch in a WR ppr league. If Aaron Hernandez keeps up this tear he is on, this offense is going to kill. LeGarrette Blount will be a great non-ppr RB too. The Jacksonville QB is a bit scary. They will be a good point producer while David Garrard is in there. Once Blaine Gabbart gets in, however, the QB spot could become an issue for them. You may not get much better than Patrick Willis and Brian Cushing as a 1-2 punch. Ndamukong Suh is going to be huge too. The D does not have much beyond them, however. They could surprise, but seem a tiny bit behind the other two teams in their division above them. Prediction: 6-7

4. Texans – This team might lack some punch on offense but will be held up by a strong defense. The D is led by the aging but exceptional duo of Ray Lewis and London fletcher. If they both continue to defy father time, this LB group will be brutal to face. Quinten Mikell, Earl Thomas and Major Wright will be great DBs too. While Drew Brees and Peyton Hillis are scary, the receiving options are a bit limited. Jacoby Ford, Mohammed Massaquoi, and Denarius Moore need to step up for them to compete weekly. Brent Celek will help too. I see this team being great if their WRs pan out. If not they will not be. I don’t have much faith in the WRs so I have them lower. They could surprise if I am wrong. Prediction: 4-9

Summary: I see this division as being considerably stronger than it was last year. The Colts and Jags will likely fight at the top if they remain healthy all year. This division could easily produce two playoff teams and do not be surprised if the Titans surprise the Colts or Jags and steal the division.

AFC West
1. Broncos – Many people might be sleeping on Kevin after last year. I will not. Kevin has been the historical competitor I compare myself to every year since I have been in this league starting in 2006. Kevin won the AFC West from 2006-2009 every year. He averaged 9 wins a year in those years and almost 166 points per game. Last year he finished with the worst record in the league somehow. Well guess what folks, he’s back! Mark Sanchez will not set the world on fire, but he will be a solid and stable NEXFL QB. Joseph Addai, Larry Fitzgerald, Robert Meachem and Lance Moore will fill out a very nice NEXFL offense. The D is even crazier. Curtis Lofton, DJ Williams, Chris Harris, Bernard Pollard, Aaron Kampman and Matt Shaughnessy give this team exceptional balance. The key for them is the early season injury to DJ Williams. If his loss costs them some key division games then there will be room to make up. Prediction: 9-4

2. Chargers – Tim has quickly become a force to be reckoned with in this league. This is his third division in as many years, but he keeps putting together exceptional teams. Dwayne Bowe and Brandon Lloyd are a great set of NEXFL WRs. Kyle Orton and Jahvid Best round out the offensive talent. I am a bit concerned with this team relying so much on Denver’s passing offense under John Fox. Orton, Lloyd and Julius Thomas are three starters that could struggle in Denver’s passing offense sputters or is underutilized. Defensively they are scary. Desmond Bishop, Mason Foster and Joe Mays form maybe the best starting LB group in NEXFL. How long Mays hangs on to the starting job is key. There is not much at DL, but the DBs are loaded with undervalued talent in Melvin Bullitt, Chris Hope and Jim Leonhard. I can see them fighting with the Broncos all year long trying to win this division. Prediction: 9-4

3. Raiders – Another year and another good Raiders team. Matt Ryan is in for a huge year and the duo of Ryan Grant and Beanie Wells will give two great RBs and a nice potential trade chip as well. The WRs and TEs are a bit lacking but have a little pop. Can Jerome Simpson and Mike Williams perform despite Andy Dalton and Tarvaris Jackson QBing their teams? If not the Raiders will struggle a bit. Rolando McClain, Tyvon Branch and Eric Berry will be great for the defense. The rest is filled with NFL starters that will be good role players but not likely to be NEXFL stars. Slow and steady wins the race, but this is a tough division. Prediction: 6-7

4. Chiefs – Boy do the NEXFL Chiefs have a lot of NFL Chiefs! If the NFL Chiefs are as good as last year then great! If not then it is not so great. I expect the NFL Chiefs to slip and thus I am a bit low on the NEXFL Chiefs. Matt Cassel could be in for a rude awakening with Charlie Weis and that NE passing offense. He was great in NE under it and great with Charlie Weis running the show. Weis is gone now though. Jamaal Charles will be a beast, but the receiving options need to get healthy to have a chance. Chris Cooley is hurt. Emmanuel Sanders has been hurt. Antonio Gates is ridiculously good when he plays, but he needs to remain healthy. Steve Breaston has been hurt. There is a lot of uncertainty with the receiving options here. If any falter then the Chiefs are hurt. If they all stay healthy and come through then my prediction is way too low. Terrell Suggs and John Abraham are an awesome starting DL pair and Michael Griffin is a great DB starter. Depth beyond them is limited. James Harrison and Ernie Sims have been hurt this preseason and if Sims doesn’t start to begin the year, then this team has Harrison and Anthony Spencer and a bunch of reserve NFL LBs. It could get ugly if that happens. Prediction: 3-10

Summary: I see two likely playoff teams her and the Raiders might make a little noise and prove me wrong and make it a 3-way race. The Chiefs have a ton of potential, but they need to get healthy and stay that way to have a chance in such a tough division.

AFC- 105-103

NFC East
1. Redskins – Chris is one of the league’s wily veterans and he has built another nice squad this year. This team has few weaknesses. It is solid at QB with Jay Cutler and is built heavily around some solid WRs and LBs. Reggie Wayne and Santonio Holmes will carry this offense and if Ryan Mathews steps up the offense could be deadly. When the team gets completely healthy and has Thomas Davis, Lance Briggs and Keith Rivers, look out. I would predict an even better record except this division will beat up on each other a good amount. Prediction: 8-5

2. Cowboys – I am happy to see Andrew gone from the AFC South and he will continue to compete annually in the NFC East now. Andrew’s team is built around stable commodities like Eli Manning and DeAngelo Williams and while his WRs are a bit thin, he has Calvin Johnson and two great TEs to start in Kellen Winslow and Vernon Davis. His LB depth is exceptional too with DeAndre Levy, Jonathan Goff and Kavell Conner to start the year. By the time Conner could get passed by Ernie Sims, he might have Nate Irving starting. Plus he has Mathias Kiwanuka for insurance. He will be fighting for the division title all year. Prediction: 8-5

3. Eagles – Jack’s team here might be just as good as or better than the two I have ranked above him. He has great talent to win on offense with LeSean McCoy, Mike Wallace, Mike Williams and Kevin Boss, but his defense is where he makes up ground. He has two great D-Linemen in Charles Johnson and Jason Babin and early in the year he will have four starting LBs in Karlos Dansby, Casey Matthews, Thomas Howard and Wesley Woodyard. He has a few weeks to sort things out before DJ Williams and Keith Rivers return. Their imminent returns and his bad QB situation are the only reason I list the Eagles behind the Skins and Cowboys here. Prediction: 7-6

4. Giants – Doug is another owner that always seems to prove me wrong. I normally expect his teams to struggle only to find them near the tops of the leader board in the NFC in points scored every year. Hopefully he proves me wrong again this year. Doug has a lot riding on the Giants as always and he needs Travis Beckum to step up for him. I love Hakeem Nicks and I like AJ Green’s talent, but if Green struggles due to poor WB play then the receivers here could be hurting. The LBs are also pretty rough with only Cameron Wake and Andra Davis to write home about. Doug does make up for it with arguably the best DBs in NEXFL with Yeremiah Bell, Roman Harper and Louis Delmas. I could see him being great if AJ Green and Ryan Fitzpatrick play out. I am not 100% sold on that, however. Prediction: 5-8

Summary: I see two likely playoff teams here. These teams are going to beat up on each other all year. The division is really strong top-to-bottom. The division is seemingly always tough and this year will be no different.

NFC North
1. Lions – I had to pick next to Chris last year and it was no picnic. He has a knack for putting together some great teams. I see him being the class of the NFC North this year again. Sidney Rice’s bust potential scares me a bit, but there is enough talent on offense to make up for that with Jason Campbell, Tim Hightower, Vincent Jackson, and Early Doucet there to help. The TE situation is not pretty, lacking a starter on the roster. Luckily the defense is there to save the day. Barrett Ruud, Rey Maualuga and Pat Angerer will team with Jason Pierre-Paul to lead the D. They have a look of a division winner and high ranking playoff team. Prediction: 8-5

2. Vikings – The Vikings are another NEXFL team that often has a lot of their home team’s players. This year is no exception. The difference is the value this year. Chad Ochocinco, Anquan Boldin and Bernard Berrian will help the offense. As long as Donovan McNabb stays healthy, the offense will be ok. If he falters and Christian Ponder enters then this team is hurting as Berrian and Visanthe Shiancoe’s values would falter as well. The DBs and DLs on this team are nothing special, but the LBs are very nice, with David Harris, James Farrior and surprise preseason star Erin Henderson leading the way. If Kirk Morrison ends up starting in Buffalo at any point then this gets even better. All in all not a bad squad. Prediction: 7-6

3. Packers – I want to pick this team to basically win the division. They have a lot going for them. Aaron Rodgers is a stud and will carry them. Fred Jackson provides sneaky value at RB and Mario Manningham is set up to star this year. The problem I have is the lack of other weapons in the receiving game and the lack of oomph at LB. If Derrick Johnson and DeMarcus Ware can hold down the fort, then the Safeties with TJ Ward, Kerry Rhodes and Nick Collins can hopefully make up some ground. If there was a little bit more in the WR/TE department I could see them as a playoff team with a shot at the division. Prediction: 5-8

4. Bears – This is another team that is not barren and I hate predicting to finish this poorly. A team with Tom Brady, Cedric Benson, Mark Ingram, Brian Urlacher and Takeo Spikes is too good of a base to struggle mightily. However, there are just way too many question marks at WR and TE to stomach. When your top WRs and TEs are players that might not even start for their NFL teams (Roy Williams, Derrick Mason, Ben Obamanu, Tony Scheffler) then you know it could be a long year. Prediction: 5-8

Summary: This was a tough division for me to gauge. I don’t see the Packers or Bears being all that bad. They could flip-flop with the Vikings and all could be solid and competing to the bitter end just like last year. I just see the Lions above them for sure, that’s all. I only see one team making it out of this division into the playoffs this year. Maybe they will prove me wrong like they did last year.

NFC South
1. Buccaneers – I really like what Ty has done with his team. He is stocked strongly at QB (Philip Rivers), RB (Knowshon Moreno and CJ Spiller) and at WR (Marques Colston, Malcolm Floyd). He has Tony Gonzalez at TE but no depth behind him. He also needs one of his 3 other WRs to step up and form a decent WR3. On defense I love Elvis Dumervil and he has EJ Henderson and Von Miller to help out as well. If the Denver D struggles to pressure the QB then his team will struggle on D. They have looked good so far, so it is so-far-so-good. Prediction: 8-5

2. Panthers – Something tells me I am significantly under-rating the returning Champs. Ben Roethlisberger and Arian Foster are beats and will carry the offense. My concern is the receiving options again. This team needs both TEs to excel. Owen Daniels and Zach Miller need to be great for them to have a great offense. I don’t see much at WR to help carry the load. The defense here is what has me all types of uncertain. The DBs are top notch. George Wilson, Eric Weddle and Brent Grimes are awesome. The DL has Justin Smith and not much else. The tough part are the LBs. I do not believe in James Anderson as much as others do. The numbers speak for themselves, but I just don’t believe it. If Jamar Chaney goes back to the middle, this team could shoot up the division. If not, they have some work to do. Prediction: 6-7

3. Falcons – Welcome back Tim! Tim won the title in 2009 and then was out of the league last year. Here he is back again. I am not so sure I love the team, though. The Redskins QB will likely provide some ups and downs. Chris Johnson will be really good, and Marshawn Lynch provides some nice depth. However, if Steve Johnson struggles this team is in trouble. Johnson and Mike Sims-Walker are being relied on to carry a weak group of WRs and TEs. Defensively the DBs are great but the LBs and DL have potential and very little proven talent. I just can’t see a return to the playoffs unless everything goes right. In NEXFL it rarely does. Prediction: 5-8

4. Saints – To put it simply, I love the defense on Mike’s team and I hate the offense. The offense does not have much beyond Adrian Peterson. Cam Newton will struggle early on, none of the WRs are starters for their NFL team, and some are not even the third option for their teams. There are two very good TEs in Jimmy Graham and Dustin Keller, but both those teams have many NFL receiving options and they will be up and down week to week. It is hard to count out a team with guys like Osi Umenyiora, Chad Greenway, Stephen Tulloch, LaRon Landry and Adrian Wilson on it. I feel the need to though. With Umenyiora, Wilson and Landry dinged up, this team strength could be derailed really quickly. Prediction: 4-9

Summary: This was exceptionally hard for me. For some reason, I just simply do not like the teams in this division this year and the way they are built. I am also not an idiot and know that this division has represented the NFC in the championship three years in a row and has won the last two NEXFL Championships. These guys know what they are doing. They are likely to prove me very, very wrong. But as of now I can’t see more than one team coming out of here and I really don’t see much certainty beyond the Bucs.

NFC West
1. Rams – Dave jumped over to the NFC this year and then went on to build a great team. Sam Bradford was a nice snag when the QBs began flying off the board and Felix Jones should be good this year. He even grabbed DeMarco Murray as a handcuff, which could be big if he beats out Tashard Choice. The receiving options on this team and the LBs are great. Not only that, but they are deep. Jeremy Maclin, Lee Evans, Donald Driver, and Danario Alexander could all be starters for their NFL teams. Even Demaryius Thomas has late season upside. Ben Watson is a solid contributor and the LBs are built around James Laurinaitis, Sean Weatherspoon and Aldon Smith. Smith has looked good in his transition this preseason and the Rams can even ride Dan Conner early in the year if Jon Beason misses time. This team is primed for a run. Prediction: 9-4

2. Cardinals – For a newcomer to NEXFL, James has built a nice team. It would be even nicer if he had not lost his 23rd rounder due to his not being up to date yet on his league payment. As soon as he rectifies that and adds some depth he will be even more of a force to be reckoned with. What’s not to like about a team built around Josh Freeman, Darren McFadden, Roddy White, and solid defenders like Will Witherspoon and Bradie James. This team has the makings of one that can make some noise. Prediction: 8-5

3. 49ers – Todd’s team perplexes me. I can see them being 8-5 or 5-8. The core is solid. Jerod Mayo and Lawrence Timmons will be a nightmare to face. The question is on offense. Can Jordan Shipley be decent with Andy Dalton? Can Johnny Knox nab his starting spot back? Can Marcedes Lewis repeat last year? Can Steven Jackson stay healthy? Can the Miami QB produce? Too many questions for me to go high. But this team could easily reverse my predicted record. Prediction: 5-8

4. Seahawks – James is probably going to hate me for this. If I am not mistaken, I predicted him to be 6-7 last year and he was. Hopefully I am wrong this year. Tony Romo, Frank Gore, Santana Moss and Davone Bess will lead the offense. The season-ending injury to Tony Moeaki hurts a lot. There is not much depth on the Seahawks behind him and not much on the waiver wire. The DBs here are great but the LBs are not much to write about beyond Bart Scott….which isn’t saying much. I hope I am wrong but I see a finish similar to last year. Prediction: 5-8

Summary: This division went from last year’s joke to a strong one this year. I can easily see two teams coming into the playoffs out of here. The Rams look like they may even be the class of the NFC at this early juncture. All in all it could get wild in the NEXFL NFC West this year.

NFC- 103-105

After falling to pick 1.10, Gore was the first pick in our first expert league of the Summer.

Even though the NFL season has been going strong for weeks now, Fantasy Knuckleheads’ official start to the fantasy season began with our first expert draft of the 2011 season; KFFL NFL Experts League. This wasn’t your run-of-the-mill draft either. We’re talking about some of the top dogs in not only fantasy football, but guys who cover the NFL on a daily basis. Here is a list of the participants:

RotoExperts.com
FootballGuys.com
FOXSports.com
FFToday.com
RotoWire.com
RTSports.com
KFFL.com
BrunoBoys.net
FantasyGuru.com
CBSSports.com
Gridiron-Guru.com
FantasyKnuckleheads.com

Below is how the draft went down and a quick synopsis on each of Knuckleheads’ picks, round-by-round.
PPR, 4 points per passing TD, 6 points per rushing/receiving TD.
1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1Flex/RB/WR/TE, 1DEF, 1K

Round One
#1 BrunoBoys.net – Arian Foster RB, HOU
#2 RotoWire.com – Adrian Peterson RB, MIN
#3 CBSSports.com – Chris Johnson RB, TEN
#4 FOXSports.com – Jamaal Charles RB, KAN
#5 FootballGuys.com – Ray Rice RB, BAL
#6 RotoExperts.com – LeSean McCoy RB, PHI
#7 FantasyGuru.com – Andre Johnson WR, HOU
#8 RTSports.com – Darren McFadden RB, OAK
#9 FFToday.com – Roddy White WR, ATL
#10 FantasyKnuckleheads.com – Frank Gore RB, SFO
#11 Gridiron-Guru.com – Calvin Johnson WR, DET
#12 KFFL.com – Maurice Jones-Drew RB, JAC

In a PPR league, I was hoping one of the last pass-catching running backs would be left, so I decided to take Gore instead of quarterback or receiver. A healthy Frank Gore will produce big numbers under a new coaching staff.

Round 2
#1 KFFL.com – Larry Fitzgerald WR, ARI
#2 Gridiron-Guru.com – Peyton Hillis RB, CLE
#3 FantasyKnuckleheads.com – Hakeem Nicks WR, NYG
#4 FFToday.com – Rashard Mendenhall RB, PIT
#5 RTSports.com – Greg Jennings WR, GNB
#6 FantasyGuru.com – Matt Forte RB, CHI
#7 RotoExperts.com – Reggie Wayne WR, IND
#8 FootballGuys.com – Aaron Rodgers QB, GNB
#9 FOXSports.com – Michael Turner RB, ATL
#10 CBSSports.com – Brandon Marshall WR, MIA
#11 RotoWire.com – Drew Brees QB, NOR
#12 BrunoBoys.net – Steven Jackson RB, STL

Going with the strategy of taking a top player in each position in the first 4-5 rounds, Hakeem Nicks was the best available receiver left on our board. With Steve Smith’s recovery from microfracture surgery expected to take months, Nicks will easily top last year’s stats in terms of receptions (79) and yardage (1052).

Round 3
#1 BrunoBoys.net – Miles Austin WR, DAL
#2 RotoWire.com – Jahvid Best RB, DET
#3 CBSSports.com – Mike Wallace WR, PIT
#4 FOXSports.com – Vincent Jackson WR, SDG
#5 FootballGuys.com – Ahmad Bradshaw RB, NYG
#6 RotoExperts.com – Felix Jones RB, DAL
#7 FantasyGuru.com – Michael Vick QB, PHI
#8 RTSports.com – Mike Williams WR, TAM
#9 FFToday.com – Antonio Gates TE, SDG
#10 FantasyKnuckleheads.com – Wes Welker WR, NWE
#11 Gridiron-Guru.com – Knowshon Moreno RB, DEN
#12 KFFL.com – Dwayne Bowe WR, KAN

Welker is only a year removed from 123 catches in 2009. Hell, he still had 86 last year when the team was going through Randy Moss withdrawals and added in Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. If Chad Ochocinco can squeeze out another strong year, Welker should at least hit 100 receptions again.

Round 4
#1 KFFL.com – Shonn Greene RB, NYJ
#2 Gridiron-Guru.com – Tom Brady QB, NWE
#3 FantasyKnuckleheads.com – Peyton Manning QB, IND
#4 FFToday.com – LeGarrette Blount RB, TAM
#5 RTSports.com – DeAngelo Williams RB, CAR
#6 FantasyGuru.com – Ryan Mathews RB, SDG
#7 RotoExperts.com – Tony Romo QB, DAL
#8 FootballGuys.com – Mark Ingram RB, NOR
#9 FOXSports.com – Jason Witten TE, DAL
#10 CBSSports.com – Dez Bryant WR, DAL
#11 RotoWire.com – Dallas Clark TE, IND
#12 BrunoBoys.net – Jeremy Maclin WR, PHI

Peyton Manning is coming off neck surgery and it’s still unknown if he will be ready by Week One. This is the main reason why he likely slid all the way to the fourth round. Even so, I simply don’t see him missing any of the regular season. While he is getting bumped down by guys like Aaron Rodgers, Philip Rivers, and Michael Vick, Manning will hold his own and put up disgustingly huge numbers if he’s ready by Week One. If so, 30+ touchdown passes here I come!!!!! He still has plenty of time to prepare.

Fred Jackson should get 250+ touches this year.

Round 5
#1 BrunoBoys.net – Philip Rivers QB, SDG
#2 RotoWire.com – Marques Colston WR, NOR
#3 CBSSports.com – Cedric Benson RB, CIN
#4 FOXSports.com – Steve Johnson WR, BUF
#5 FootballGuys.com – DeSean Jackson WR, PHI
#6 RotoExperts.com – Santonio Holmes WR, NYJ
#7 FantasyGuru.com – Jermichael Finley TE, GNB
#8 RTSports.com – Brandon Lloyd WR, DEN
#9 FFToday.com – Matt Schaub QB, HOU
#10 FantasyKnuckleheads.com – Fred Jackson RB, BUF
#11 Gridiron-Guru.com – Ryan Torain RB, WAS
#12 KFFL.com – Percy Harvin WR, MIN

Jackson had a down year in 2010 after achieving 1000 rushing yards in 2009. But this year will be a different story. He no longer has to compete with Marshawn Lynch. And with CJ Spiller still having fumble issues and pass-protecting problems in practice, Jackson will touch the ball 250+ times this season.

Round 6
#1 KFFL.com – Chris Wells RB, ARI
#2 Gridiron-Guru.com – Vernon Davis TE, SFO
#3 FantasyKnuckleheads.com – Greg Olsen TE, CAR
#4 FFToday.com – Kenny Britt WR, TEN
#5 RTSports.com – Matt Ryan QB, ATL
#6 FantasyGuru.com – Daniel Thomas RB, MIA
#7 RotoExperts.com – Ryan Grant RB, GNB
#8 FootballGuys.com – Austin Collie WR, IND
#9 FOXSports.com – Sidney Rice WR, SEA
#10 CBSSports.com – BenJarvus Green-Ellis RB, NWE
#11 RotoWire.com – Marshawn Lynch RB, SEA
#12 BrunoBoys.net – Jonathan Stewart RB, CAR

Out of all the picks, this is the one I regret……but just a little bit. Playing in OC Mike Martz’s offense killed Olsen’s value in Chicago. And he’ll have some growing pains as he gets adjusted to playing in a new system and a new quarterback. What I am banking on is Carolina OC Rob Chudzinski making Olsen a big part of the offense. Chud was the tight ends coach in San Diego and was a big part of making some dude named Antonio Gates a stud.

Round 7
#1 BrunoBoys.net – Anquan Boldin WR, BAL
#2 RotoWire.com – Chad Ochocinco WR, NWE
#3 CBSSports.com – Ben Roethlisberger QB, PIT
#4 FOXSports.com – Eli Manning QB, NYG
#5 FootballGuys.com – Jimmy Graham TE, NOR
#6 RotoExperts.com – Mike Thomas WR, JAC
#7 FantasyGuru.com – Pierre Garcon WR, IND
#8 RTSports.com – Brandon Jacobs RB, NYG
#9 FFToday.com – Mario Manningham WR, NYG
#10 FantasyKnuckleheads.com – Jordy Nelson WR, GNB
#11 Gridiron-Guru.com – Ryan Williams RB, ARI
#12 KFFL.com – Matthew Stafford QB, DET

After putting up a huge game in the Super Bowl, and also suffering a burst bursa sac in his left knee, Nelson figures to see a lot more time on the field this year. James Jones coming back does hurt some, but we doubt he has fixed his inconsistencies. And Donald Driver is close to being done completely. Nelson has sleeper written all over him. He’s the team’s most talented receiver outside of Greg Jennings.

Round 8
#1 KFFL.com – Owen Daniels TE, HOU
#2 Gridiron-Guru.com – Roy Williams WR, CHI
#3 FantasyKnuckleheads.com – Joseph Addai RB, IND
#4 FFToday.com – Danny Amendola WR, STL
#5 RTSports.com – Mike Tolbert RB, SDG
#6 FantasyGuru.com – Steve Smith WR, CAR
#7 RotoExperts.com – Kellen Winslow TE, TAM
#8 FootballGuys.com – A.J. Green WR, CIN
#9 FOXSports.com – C.J. Spiller RB, BUF
#10 CBSSports.com – Santana Moss WR, WAS
#11 RotoWire.com – Reggie Bush RB, MIA
#12 BrunoBoys.net – Davone Bess WR, MIA

Another guy who slid farther than I had anticipated, Addai re-signed with the Colts and will start Week One. Donald Brown showed me nothing last year that would make me believe he can unseat Addai for the starting job. Rookie Delone Carter could make some noise, but the starting job is clearly Addai’s to lose. And as my No. 3 running back, THAT’S GOLD JERRY GOLD!!!

Robert Meachem could finally have the breakout season the Saints have been waiting for.

Round 9
#1 BrunoBoys.net – Darren Sproles RB, NOR
#2 RotoWire.com – Braylon Edwards WR, SFO
#3 CBSSports.com – Tim Hightower RB, WAS
#4 FOXSports.com – Julio Jones WR, ATL
#5 FootballGuys.com – Jacoby Ford WR, OAK
#6 RotoExperts.com – Greg Little WR, CLE
#7 FantasyGuru.com – Josh Freeman QB, TAM
#8 RTSports.com – Deion Branch WR, NWE
#9 FFToday.com – Rashad Jennings RB, JAC
#10 FantasyKnuckleheads.com – Robert Meachem WR, NOR
#11 Gridiron-Guru.com – Malcom Floyd WR, SDG
#12 KFFL.com – Johnny Knox WR, CHI

I initially ragged on Kurt for making a homer pick, but you can’t disagree that this could be Meachem’s year. Finally over injuries, Meachem is showing why the Saints drafted him in the first round back in 2007. With Marques Colston still sidelined with problematic knees, Meachem could end up being Drew Brees’ go-to guy. His upside is off the charts right now.

Round 10
#1 KFFL.com – Jay Cutler QB, CHI
#2 Gridiron-Guru.com – Sam Bradford QB, STL
#3 FantasyKnuckleheads.com – Roy Helu RB, WAS
#4 FFToday.com – Michael Bush RB, OAK
#5 RTSports.com – Mike Sims-Walker WR, STL
#6 FantasyGuru.com – Lance Moore WR, NOR
#7 RotoExperts.com – Matt Cassel QB, KAN
#8 FootballGuys.com – Marcedes Lewis TE, JAC
#9 FOXSports.com – Kevin Kolb QB, ARI
#10 CBSSports.com – Rob Gronkowski TE, NWE
#11 RotoWire.com – Hines Ward WR, PIT
#12 BrunoBoys.net – Brandon Pettigrew TE, DET

Hate the Redskins, but I love me some Roy Helu. Ryan Torain can’t stay healthy and Tim Hightower is going to fumble his way into Mike Shanahan’s doghouse. I’m trying to temper my expectations because he’s a rookie, but I can’t see Helu not landing the starting job in-season.

Round 11
#1 BrunoBoys.net – James Starks RB, GNB
#2 RotoWire.com – Mike Williams WR, SEA
#3 CBSSports.com – Joe Flacco QB, BAL
#4 FOXSports.com – Pierre Thomas RB, NOR
#5 FootballGuys.com – Plaxico Burress WR, NYJ
#6 RotoExperts.com – Danny Woodhead RB, NWE
#7 FantasyGuru.com – Willis McGahee RB, DEN
#8 RTSports.com – Kyle Orton QB, DEN
#9 FFToday.com – James Jones WR, GNB
#10 FantasyKnuckleheads.com – Jared Cook TE, TEN
#11 Gridiron-Guru.com – Green Bay Packers Def/ST, GNB
#12 KFFL.com – Michael Crabtree WR, SFO

Now we start getting into the players that are looking good in camp, but haven’t popped up on anyone else’s radar. With Matt Hasselbeck in town, Cook could be in for a solid season. Reports say that the coaches are lining him out as a wide receiver in practice, so we could see him push for a career year in 2011.

Round 12
#1 KFFL.com – LaDainian Tomlinson RB, NYJ
#2 Gridiron-Guru.com – Donald Driver WR, GNB
#3 FantasyKnuckleheads.com – Philadelphia Eagles Def/ST, PHI
#4 FFToday.com – Ryan Fitzpatrick QB, BUF
#5 RTSports.com – Tony Gonzalez TE, ATL
#6 FantasyGuru.com – Dustin Keller TE, NYJ
#7 RotoExperts.com – New York Jets Def/ST, NYJ
#8 FootballGuys.com – Shane Vereen RB, NWE
#9 FOXSports.com – Zach Miller TE, SEA
#10 CBSSports.com – Pittsburgh Steelers Def/ST, PIT
#11 RotoWire.com – Mark Sanchez QB, NYJ
#12 BrunoBoys.net – Chris Cooley TE, WAS

My homer pick of the draft. The Eagles Defense still has to gel with all the new faces, plus a new defensive coordinator, but they should slowly start raining down some terror against opposing offenses. I still worry about the pass rush and the linebackers, but that secondary is just too sick to pass up. If they end up flopping, I’ll be eating some crow in the winter.

For at least one week, I'm hoping Matt Hasselbeck shines as much as his bald noggin does on a sunny day.

Round 13
#1 BrunoBoys.net – Donovan McNabb QB, MIN
#2 RotoWire.com – Justin Forsett RB, SEA
#3 CBSSports.com – Jerome Simpson WR, CIN
#4 FOXSports.com – Delone Carter RB, IND
#5 FootballGuys.com – New England Patriots Def/ST, NWE
#6 RotoExperts.com – Tony Moeaki TE, KAN
#7 FantasyGuru.com – Jordan Shipley WR, CIN
#8 RTSports.com – Chicago Bears Def/ST, CHI
#9 FFToday.com – Aaron Hernandez TE, NWE
#10 FantasyKnuckleheads.com – Matt Hasselbeck QB, TEN
#11 Gridiron-Guru.com – Danario Alexander WR, STL
#12 KFFL.com – New York Giants Def/ST, NYG

I don’t expect Hasselbeck to find fantasy glory behind a questionable offensive line, but I only need him to pick up the slack during Peyton’s bye week (11). Luckily, he’s playing Atlanta in the dome, so weather won’t be an issue.

Round 14
#1 KFFL.com – Steve Breaston WR, KAN
#2 Gridiron-Guru.com – Leonard Hankerson WR, WAS
#3 FantasyKnuckleheads.com – Torrey Smith WR, BAL
#4 FFToday.com – Baltimore Ravens Def/ST, BAL
#5 RTSports.com – Brent Celek TE, PHI
#6 FantasyGuru.com – Jerome Harrison RB, DET
#7 RotoExperts.com – Ronnie Brown RB, PHI
#8 FootballGuys.com – DeMarco Murray RB, DAL
#9 FOXSports.com – Lee Evans WR, BUF
#10 CBSSports.com – Javon Ringer RB, TEN
#11 RotoWire.com – Early Doucet WR, ARI
#12 BrunoBoys.net – Dallas Cowboys Def/ST, DAL

Another upside/depth pick, Smith has been looking really good in practice, yeah maybe I put too much stock in training camps, and he looks to be the starter alongside Anquan Boldin. Nice bye-week filler who could make a flex appearance.

Round 15
#1 BrunoBoys.net – Stephen Gostkowski K, NWE
#2 RotoWire.com – Detroit Lions Def/ST, DET
#3 CBSSports.com – Brandon Jackson RB, CLE
#4 FOXSports.com – New Orleans Saints Def/ST, NOR
#5 FootballGuys.com – Nate Kaeding K, SDG
#6 RotoExperts.com – Emmanuel Sanders WR, PIT
#7 FantasyGuru.com – Kansas City Chiefs Def/ST, KAN
#8 RTSports.com – Jabar Gaffney WR, WAS
#9 FFToday.com – Jason Snelling RB, ATL
#10 FantasyKnuckleheads.com – Todd Heap TE, ARI
#11 Gridiron-Guru.com – Titus Young WR, DET
#12 KFFL.com – Rob Bironas K, TEN

I never take three tight ends. Sometimes, I don’t even take two. But I was so worried about my Olsen pick, that I picked up Cook and prayed. This league allows a tight end as a flex position, so Heap will help during the bye weeks. And playing with Kevin Kolb, who likes to throw to tight ends, Heap might have a little bit of TE2 value left.

Round 16
#1 KFFL.com – Lonyae Miller RB, DAL
#2 Gridiron-Guru.com – Mason Crosby K, GNB
#3 FantasyKnuckleheads.com – Garrett Hartley K, NOR
#4 FFToday.com – Alex Henery K, PHI
#5 RTSports.com – Matt Bryant K, ATL
#6 FantasyGuru.com – Sebastian Janikowski K, OAK
#7 RotoExperts.com – Josh Brown K, STL
#8 FootballGuys.com – Donnie Avery WR, STL
#9 FOXSports.com – Neil Rackers K, HOU
#10 CBSSports.com – David Buehler K, DAL
#11 RotoWire.com – Adam Vinatieri K, IND
#12 BrunoBoys.net – Jacoby Jones WR, HOU

A kicker is a kicker, but at least I got one that ranked fairly high. And since Kurt is a Saints fan, nothing wrong with appeasing the boss with guys from his own team.

So, what better place to start than the most important position in the game?

Here’s my list of the top five fantasy quarterbacks for 2011. Here’s what Fantasy Knuckleheads has already done on this topic. And here’s a look at Greg Brosh’s overall top 50 rankings.

1. Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers – It doesn’t matter who is catching passes in San Diego, Rivers is going to put up huge numbers. And, now that there’s a chance Vincent Jackson will return, Rivers will have his best receiver back. That spells huge fantasy numbers from the best fantasy quarterback in the NFL.
2. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers – Rodgers put up big numbers last year with a non-existent running game. With Ryan Grant returning this year, the Packers should be a more balanced team. That means more passing lanes for Rodgers. With a receiving corps of Greg Jennings, Donald Driver and Jordy Nelson, that means big fantasy numbers for the Green Bay quarterback.
3. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints – Brees had a down year last year but was still a very solid fantasy quarterback. He threw a lot of dumb interceptions in 2010, a trend that won’t continue in 2011. Brees will be back and better than ever in 2011, making Marques Colston, Robert Meachem and every other Saints receiver very valuable.

   

4. Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts – Manning is battling some injury troubles right now and there’s speculation that he won’t be ready at the start of the season. But, if I know anything about Peyton Manning, it’s that he’ll be playing when the season starts, injury or not. And, with Reggie Wayne, Austin Collie, Pierre Garcon and Dallas Clark at his disposal, he’ll put up big numbers even if he’s only at 80% health.
5. Tom Brady, New England Patriots – Our top 5 QB list wouldn’t be complete without Brady. Brady has been one of the most consistent fantasy studs of the past five or so years (torn ACL excluded). He has Wes Welker and a pair of excellent young tight ends at his disposal, so there’s no reason to think he won’t put up big numbers again this year.

Safety

After yet another injury plagued season, the Colts decided to cut ties with Bob Sanders, which leaves the team with a pretty big hole to fill at strong safety. The Colts should be set with Jacob Lacey and Kelvin Hayden at cornerback and Antoine Bethea starting at free safety, but last season the Colts’ passing defense was simply middle-of-the-road. They can live with this assuming Lacey continues to improve, but if they want to keep their secondary from becoming liability they must use an early draft pick on nabbing a safety. Rahim Moore could be a target late in round one, but with the 22nd overall pick it’s not prime value and the Colts tend to use their first rounders on offensive linemen and pass rushers anyways. They’ll have virtually no chance of obtaining Moore in the second round without a trade, so I mocked the Colts Oklahoma’s Quinton Carter in the second round of my 2011 NFL mock draft.

Defensive Tackle

After allowing the eighth-highest game average for rushing yards on defense (127), 14 rushing touchdowns, and over 2,000 total rushing yards (only seven other teams did this, none of them made the playoffs), the Colts need to get tougher up the middle of their front seven. Assuming they keep Robert Mathis, the Colts will have one of the best pass-rushing tandems in the league, but that won’t be able to cover up the miserable performance they’ve had at defensive tackle. 3-year pro Fili Moala has impressed coaches and shown some progression, but they could still use an upgrade over Daniel Muir.

Wide Receiver

Not as urgent of a need as other areas of the roster, but nonetheless a hole that will present itself in the near future. Reggie Wayne is playing as well as ever but the 32-year old won’t be around forever. Pierre Garcon has established himself as a viable option for Peyton Manning, but Austin Collie is a concussion magnet and if he were to go down again in 2012 Manning’s next best target is Blair White. It may have worked out well last year, but the Colts do need to find a guy they can groom as the next No. 1 wideout in Indy.

Offensive Line

The Colts had the best pass-blocking offensive line in the league last season, giving up a league-best 16 sacks. However, Charlie Johnson could possibly leave through free agency and they could stand to improve at the guard position. Because pass blocking is a big strength for this unit, I’d expect their biggest targets in this draft to be good run-blockers who can create holes and open lanes for Joseph Addai. Even though the Colts are a passing team, it doesn’t mean they can neglect the ground game. Finally, center Jeff Saturday is 35, and while his on-field play certainly doesn’t merit a replacement, the Colts need depth at the position. Saturday won’t be around much longer, but more importantly the Colts don’t even have somebody behind him on the depth chart. If not an eventual successor, Indy at least needs to find a capable backup in the draft this year as an insurance policy.

This is, of course, coming with the understanding that some of you have already wrapped up your playoffs, but there are still plenty of you out there competing in your final week (like myself) ensuring plenty to talk about as we get ready for the closing act.

There are a few things to keep in mind with several teams, so because of that, we will end the fantasy season with a game-by-game analysis rather than picking a handful of receivers. The reason is simply due to many players inevitably slated to lose time, or sit altogether.

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Miami @ New England: Tom Brady is expected to play at least two quarters, alongside their starting receivers, while Miami will be in full starting mode.

You can expect Wes Welker to sit after the first or before the half, but I expect Brandon Marshall to have a huge day, as he chases his fourth consecutive 100 catch season—he’ll need 19 to achieve such a feat. Also expect a better than modest day from Davone Bess.

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Buffalo Bills@ New York Jets: The Jets basically back-doored themselves into the playoffs once again, and they’ll need a big day against the Bills to raise their confidence levels…shouldn’t be too difficult.

Don’t expect too much from the Jets receivers outside of an average day, as the Jets are sure to take advantage of an extremely weak Bills run D. Steven Johnson could have a pretty big day as he chases a franchise record for touchdowns, and Ryan Fitzpatrick looks to seal the deal with the front office with a nice day.

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Cincinnati @ Baltimore: The Ravens can still theoretically win the division if the Steelers screw up their last game this week, so expect big things from the Ravens all around. Derrick Mason and Anquan Boldin will lead the way for the Ravens, with Joe Flacco looking to add to his 13:1 TD:INT ratio at home stat.

The Bengals could put up a fight though with Carson Palmer also looking to add to his impressive 9-3 career record against the Ravens. For the Bengals receivers, though, don’t expect much with TE Jermaine Gresham probable to steal the show.

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Pittsburgh @ Cleveland: Speaking of the Steelers; start any wideout from Pittsburgh, and sit everyone from Cleveland…easy enough, right?

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Oakland @ Kansas City: One of the most mind boggling situations in all of football. First, the Chiefs are in line to rest their starters in their final week against the Raiders with a division crown already secured (who would’ve thunk) and the Raiders could go 6-0 in the division and still not make the playoffs!!!

I don’t expect much out of any of the Chiefs starters, but the Raiders could give Jacoby Ford more playing time, affording owners a rare extended look at a receiver who may disappear in 2011.

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Minnesota @ Detroit: How awesome would it be if the Lions ended their season with not only 6 wins, but also a win over division rival Minnesota? And how sad would it be if Favre got the nod over Joe Webb, and wound up helping the Lions win with two picks.

Not a far-fetched idea my friends.

Still, this should be a free-for-all for both team’s receivers, so you can start Percy Harvin, Calvin Johnson, and even Nate Burleson with confidence. Sit Sidney Rice who sustained a concussion; he will not play this week.

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Carolina @ Atlanta: The Falcons need this win to clinch a first round bye and home field advantage, and they are likely to accomplish that feat against Carolina.

Roddy White will lead the way as usual, with Carolina offering nothing interesting fantasy wise, which is par for the course.

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Tampa Bay @ New Orleans: Probably the game of the week, as the red hot Buccaneers try again against a Saints team that no one wants to face right now.

All starters will play in this one, and you can bet Mike Williams, and Marques Colston will lead the stat line in what could be a good old fashioned shootout.

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Jacksonville @ Houston: The Jags are playing for everything, and the Texans are playing for pride. The issue here is who will outperform who.

You can expect Andre Johnson to NOT suit up for this one with a bum ankle, so expect Jacoby Jones to have a nice day against a weak secondary. Don’t be too surprised if MSW comes alive in this one either, since the Texans are not exactly setting the world on fire in coverage.

Mike Thomas is also in line for a nice day.

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Dallas @ Philadelphia: Believe it or not, this game could hold some significant value for owners of Miles Austin, but not so much for owners of DeSean Jackson.

Don’t expect to see Michael Vick in this matchup either, who was seen significantly limping around the locker room  after Tuesday’s man-handling  with a thigh contusion.

What you could see happen is wideout Jeremy Maclin have a banner day, but it is more realistic to think he will have a modest day at best.

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New York Giants @ Washington: The Redskins could wind up playing the spoiler by upending a promising Giants season with a win, but the chances are highly unlikely.

The Giants are trying to prevent one of the biggest in-season collapses currently unfolding for New York, so expect a big day from Hakeem Nicks, and Mario Manningham.

Donavan McNabb is expected to get the nod, after Rex Grossman came back down to earth, so even Santana Moss could have a modest day.

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Arizona @ San Francisco: Nothing to see here people…move along.

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San Diego @ Denver: Vince Jackson, Malcom Floyd, Brandon Lloyd, and even Jabar Gaffney could have a nice day in an otherwise meaningless matchup.

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Chicago @ Green Bay: The Chicago Bears will NOT perform the same way this week against Green Bay as they did in against the New York Jets. The Jets are a highly aggressive blitzing team, and the Bears took advantage of that by attacking the blitz with Jonny Knox deep, and Matt Forte out of the flats, and over the middle. The Bears will inevitably dial back the snaps of their starters by the second half.

The Packers, on the other hand are playing for it all, so it won’t matter which squad is on the field for the Bears. You can expect the Packers receivers to have another monster day, particularly Greg Jennings.

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Tennessee @ Indianapolis: The Colts will likely not sit their starters so expect another quality day from Reggie Wayne and a modest day from Pierre Garcon— Austin Collie is done for the year.

Titan’s receiver Kenny Britt is likely to field a ton of targets as he attempts to end the season on a high note, despite this probably being Jeff Fisher’s last game as head coach.

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St. Louis @ Seattle: This could very well be the best prime time matchup all year long as both the Seahawks and Rams duke it out under the lights for the right to go to the post season.

It’s do or die time for both teams; Mike Williams versus Danny Amendola, Ben “Obi-Wan” Obomanu against Brandon Gibson and rookie quarterback Sam Bradford against new comer Charlie Whitehurst.

Either way, whichever team gets in, they aren’t likely to make out of the first round alive, but my money is one the Rams in this matchup. All of these players are fine starts.

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I just wanted to take a moment out to thank all of you who came back each and every week with your questions, responses, and trust. You guys have made this year more than worth-while I can’t wait to see you all next year.

You guys are the best!!!!!!!!!

But I’m not going anywhere, so, if any of you are Fantasy Baseball buffs, then hop on over to the Fantasy MLB area which is now open for business. The season’s still a while away, but there is plenty to discuss so stop on by when you are free and keep an eye out in the forums for Fantasy Baseball talk in the coming weeks.

As always guys: Good Luck, and Thank You for your support and patronage!