Today I was doing some mock drafts to prepare myself for the fantasy football season and one peticular draft’s chat made me laugh. Let me set the mood for you.
The draft has just begun and the first four players off the board are Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Matt Forte and Michael Turner. For the fifth pick overall an owner picks Randy Moss. After that pick the chat explodes with baseless banter about how Moss is a terrible first round pick.
Tell that to the people who had him in 2007.
Why did this chat go crazy when Randy Moss was picked? Well these days “ADP” is synonymous to “ranking”. They are two different things though! A ranking should provide you with an idea of the value you put into a player while ADP is a good judgment in what kind of value other people put into a player.
Don't think too hard about a player's ADP. The only thing it should tell you is the latest you can grab a player before he's gone.
Now as you know, Moss has an ADP around 15 in fantasy leagues. I think it has been established that Moss is one of the premiere talents at WR this year so it’s not crazy to go into a draft wanting to draft him. You might even base your whole draft strategy on Randy Moss.
If you have one of the first picks in the draft though you probably won’t have the chance to grab Moss in the second round, ya know? So if you get one of the top picks do you have to change your whole draft strategy and grab a guy like Steve Slaton even though you really want Moss?
NO!
Where did these cheat sheets that we use from various sites like Yahoo!, ESPN, and CBS come from? There is no machine computing these lists. In fact, these sheets are created by people like you and I. The one thing we all know about people is that everyone has an opinion. The only difference between a fantasy football expert and you is the expert is paid to share his opinion.
Fantasy sport opinions are like rear-ends. Everyone has one. Follow your heart and draft who you want, not who you "should" draft.
Don’t get caught up in the misconception that ADP equals a player’s overall rank. The two are closely related because expert analysis will tell people where to draft guys but thier predictions are good guesses at best! It is likely that only half the players listed in the top 50 will end up there by the end of the season. Some experts might try to convince you they can predict the future but in the end we are all just making educated guesses.
So how should we use ADP to our advantage? Say Aaron Rodgers has an ADP of 30 and you are about to draft 20th and 21st overall in your ten team draft. If you really want Aaron Rodgers, you need to draft him with one of these picks. When your fourth and fifth selections come around (40 and 41 overall), Aaron Rodgers will probably not be there anymore. Don’t draft Anquan Boldin 20th overall just because your cheat sheet tells you! Draft Aaron Rodgers like you planned on doing for months!
You don’t want to be sitting there in ten weeks thinking “I knew I should have drafted Aaron Rodgers! Now I’m stuck with choosing between David Garrard and Brady Quinn each week!”
The gut feeling is your best tool in fantasy sports. Even if you snap a few tendons reaching for Carson Palmer in the 6th round, at least you know you got him. When you look over your fantasy team after the draft you will feel better, trust me.
The best feeling is winning your league with those guys you had faith in all along.
“Even if you snap a few tendons reaching for Carson Palmer in the 6th round, at least you know you got him.” LOL
No doubt I’m grabbing a top 5 WR in the first round after the top 3 or 4 running backs are gone. You need a WR stud early and a WR sleeper late to make it, especially in PPR leagues.
This article is proof that this site is gonna be on top of all other fantasy football sites! If you are truly a competitor and you want to know how to win in your fantasy football league(s), this article and all others on this site will, if followed, guide anyone to the top of their league(s).
No doubt excellent read and fantastic advice Mike!
Yes we have some really smart fantasy football writers. Great draft advice for 2009. Way better than yahoo espn etc their rankings just don’t work in the real world on draft day.
Thanks for the positive comments.
I do think that our advice is top-notch. All the mainstream fantasy advice sites tell you the same thing! I can’t stand it!
Absolutely. I won my league last year, not because I picked up who Football Guide magazine told me I should pick, but because I was able to snag the right player at the right time. (and, Because I don’t like Tom Brady, avoided the week one season ending injury.) They laughed at me when I passed him up too, but was able to pull who I wanted on ADP.