For NFL players the preseason is for getting timing down, getting rookies used to the team and getting into shape.
For fantasy owners, the preseason is a sneak peak at who will put fantasy teams on their shoulders and carry them to the promised land. Certain players showing us incredible upside are late round fliers so savvy owners are going to try and draft them a round or two early. But because you are reading the great advice at Top Fantasy Football, you are going to get a leg-up on the competition and find out where you should really be drafting certain preseason heroes.
We also need to watch for players who aren’t performing up to expected levels or guys moving down on the depth chart. Those kind of players are guys we want to lower on our draft sheets. Some of them we should try and avoid completely.
Chris Henry has the upside of a WR2 but is available very late in the draft. Drafting him after pick 100 is just highway robbery.
So who should you be paying more attention to right now? Who should you be cautious to draft? Let’s find out!
ADP – Average Draft Position according to CBSSports.com
TDP – Target Draft Position (where you actually should draft a player).
Chris Henry (ADP 136, TDP 100)
Who else is being grabbed around pick 100? Kevin Walter, Lance Moore, Steve Breaston
Right now Chris Henry is getting no love. He’s being drafted near guys like Devone Bess, Mark Clayton and Deion Branch. Chris Henry is showing us this preseason that he is more than a late round flier. Through two games, Henry has piled on 11 catches for 155 yards and a TD. These numbers are coming from a guy who isn’t even playing the whole game! Owners in your league will try to grab Chris Henry a round or two early around pick 110 but you’d land a surprise smack-down on their parade if you targeted Chris Henry around pick 100. Remember, Chris Henry caught 9 TD passes in 2006 when the Bengals last had a balanced offense. This year the Bengals will have a balanced offense with Cedric Benson and Brian Leonard running the ball.
Terrell Owens (ADP 38, TDP 60)
Who else is being grabbed around pick 60? Chad Ochocinco, Santonio Holmes, Braylon Edwards
It saddens me to put TO on this list of “losers” this preseason but I have two words for you that strikes fear in the hearts of any fantasy owner.
Turf Toe
Ignore the fact that Owens is out of Dallas. That doesn’t hurt his value at all. Turf toe is much worse.
Turf toe might possibly be the worst injury a WR or RB can get. Let me explain. If a player receives a high ankle sprain, he will sit on the sidelines and you will fill in his spot with another player. Turf toe is different though. When a player has turf toe, he plays every game but plays significantly worse than he normally would but still plays. Most owners will play the an injured stud instead of a waiver-wire goon.
Look at LaDainian Tomlinson from last year. Turf toe turned him human! Turf toe is so bad that even pitchers in baseball with it sit out games, and pitchers don’t even run.
No one has come out and said Owens has turf toe but by now we should know better. If a player is sitting out this much because of a toe injury, it’s probably turf toe. Don’t take your chances with Owens this season unless he gets significantly better through the preseason. According to Wikipedia turf toe takes around a month to heal. Since Owens hurt himself in the first preseason game there still might be a chance for him to be 100% by the first game.
Ray Rice (ADP 95, TDP 65)
Who else is being grabbed around pick 65? Reggie Bush, Derrick Ward, Knowshon Moreno
I’m completely shocked that Ray Rice isn’t even being drafted in the top 30 running backs, let alone the top 50 overall. This kid has moved up to the top of the Baltimore running back depth charts which should speak loudly for the work he’s done already this preseason. Wait, there’s more!
For PPR leagues, Ray Rice should be targeted even sooner! This kid was the leading running back in receptions last year for Baltimore and now that Joe Flacco is a year wiser expect more consistent air-mail to head Rice’s way.
Last year Baltimore was first in the league in rush attempts per game (37) and fourth in the league with rushing yards per game (148.5). The team obviously knows how to rush so don’t you want the guy getting all those yards on your team? In his first preseason game of the year he had 8 touches for 60 yards. Passing on Ray Rice might be the biggest mistake you could do this year.
Everyone is expecting Russell to take a step forward this season but he might not even be the opening day starter.
JaMarcus Russell (ADP 149, TDP 150+)
Who else is being grabbed around pick 150+? Vernon Davis, Nate Burleson, Devery Henderson
JaMarcus was starting to get a little hype going this preseason, ya know? Chaz Schilens looked good in the first preseason game and Darius Heywood-Bey is a great talent for Russell to utilize. Russell was even a manageable 6-9 when he played against Dallas. Things were finally looking up for the Raiders.
Then Chaz Schilens had to go break his foot. One of Russell’s better weapons might be out for a couple months and it might take him another month to recover 100% from the injury.
On top of everything, the former number 1 pick must compete against the feisty veteran Jeff Garcia. Garcia is probably one of the last QBs in the NFL to go down in this competition without a fight. If Garcia keeps performing well in camp, you might not see Russell on opening day.
Devin Hester (ADP 89, TDP 70)
Who else is being grabbed around pick 70? DeSean Jackson, Lee Evans, Anthony Gonzalez
Does Devin Hester qualify as a post-hype sleeper now? Just two years ago Hester was the most exciting player in football but since the 2006-07 season we have seen Hester struggle to transfer his skills to wide receiver.
The struggle ends this season.
I don’t want to take anything away from Kyle Orton but Jay Cutler and his monstrous arm will finally turn Hester into a deep threat every play. Not only does Hester’s speed make him such a threat to defenses but Cutler is going to target Hester more than any other receiver on the team. In the first preseason game for the Bears, Hester was targeted 6 times (in one quarter).
The Bears realize what kind of athlete they have with Devin Hester and now that Hester has a year of wide receiver under his belt he will break loose this season.
Owners that think Cassel will repeat his 2008 numbers may want to check out how Kansas City quarterbacks did last year.
Matt Cassel (ADP 86, TDP 110)
Who else is being grabbed around pick 110? Eli Manning, Trent Edwards, Matt Hasselbeck
Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.
I think this is the perfect way to put how fantasy owners are going into the 2009 with Matt Cassel. Last year Cassel came out of no where to be one of the top fantasy quarterbacks in the league. No one expected him to play so well.
This year people are expecting similar numbers from Matt Cassel but he was a product of his environment last year. Bill Belichick is a mastermind coach and he knew exactly how to use Matt Cassel. This year Matt Cassel is going to play in an offense with only one offensive weapon: Dwayne Bowe. With Tony Gonzalez gone now, Kansas City has little to offer Cassel in terms of firepower.
To make matters worse for Cassel, Todd Haley has admitted Brodie Croyle has performed better than Cassel in training camp. This could be Haley’s attempt to motivate Cassel or it could be true. Either way, this is not what you want to hear about your starting QB.
Expect Cassel to perform a little better than Tyler Thigpen from last year. I’m guessing 20 TDs and 15 INTs.
Great article. I agree on all but Hester. He just doesn’t move me in the WR position. He is at his best on special teams.
Nate Burleson ADP of 150 is a steal again this year. He will be the Chad Johnson of Seattle. Thanks Mike!