Top Mid-Round Fantasy Running Back Steals

Posted by Kurt on Aug 20, 2009 in Fantasy Football

This time of year every fantasy football fanatic basically has two lists: top players and sleepers. But what about those guys in between? Every year several of these “tweeners” end up in the top ten at their position despite dropping outside the top 25 drafted. Now these are not the late-round stunners like Steve Slaton or Le’Ron McClain, who came out of nowhere to produce very good fantasy numbers in 2008. Do you remember where Michael Turner went in your draft last year? How about DeAngelo Williams, Matt Forte, and Thomas Jones? I pulled out my fantasy magazine from last year and looked at the experts cumulative top 25 running back rankings; Turner was ranked 17 and none of the others even made the list! Every one of them was listed at the top of their respective team’s depth chart for the entire preseason, so we all knew they were going to play, yet they still dropped to anywhere from the 4th-7th rounds in most leagues! These mid-round gems are the key to dominating your league. Top ten caliber runners will be there for the taking in the middle rounds, and here are some places to look for them:

Willie Parker looks to rebound in 2009

Willie Parker, Pit – When the Steelers spent a first-round pick on Rashard Mendenhall last year, I was the first to downgrade Willie Parker’s fantasy value. I am now officially flip-flopping because Mendenhall has shown nothing to prove he can overtake “Fast Willie”. Injuries derailed Parker’s season in ’08 but if you average his numbers over 16 games he would have rushed for approximately 1,150 yards and 8 touchdowns. From 2005-2007 Parker put up fantastic numbers while missing just 2 games, so I wouldn’t worry to much about durability. He is not a big factor in the passing game and he has had goal-line carries vultured in the past, but in ’06 he rushed for 13 TDs so he is capable of grinding out the tough yards. At his current ADP of right around 74, Parker will provide tremendous bang for your buck. Stash him on your bench and wait for the points to pile up.

Jonathan Stewart, Car – Last year I drafted Stewart ahead of DeAngelo Williams because I thought Stewart was the more skilled player. Well, maybe I am just bitter from getting burned, but I still think Stewart is the better player. Williams had a huge season in ’08, rushing for a league-high 18 TDs. Call me skeptical, but I don’t see Williams repeating those numbers. Think about it; inside the 5 yard line would you rather give the ball to the 235 pound Stewart or the 215 pound Williams? They are both good options as RB2s, but Stewart is being drafted as an RB3 withan ADP of 65. With an injury to Williams or just by out-playing him Stewart could easily become a top 10 back.

Ray Rice, Bal- Anyone who has browsed this site knows several writers on the Top Fantasy Football team are expecting Rice to become the feature-back in Baltimore. He continues to run with the first-team offense and his receiving skills are being highlighted by offensive coordinator Cam Cameron. With Joe Flacco still maturing as an NFL quarterback the Ravens will continue to lean on the running game. Le’Ron McClain will steal some TDs but Rice has a Jones-Drew-esque build which could produce more short-yardage TDs than you expect. He is being recognized more and more but his ADP is still way too low at 75.

Ryan Grant will benefit from Aaron Rodgers breakout season

Ryan Grant, GB – Grant has been a second-half wonder in both of his NFL seasons. His inconsistency is scary but his potential in a powerful offense very high. He struggled through the first half of last season due to a pre-season holdout followed immediately by a hamstring injury that prevented him from displaying the same big-play ability he had in 2007. With the cat out of the bag on Aaron Rodgers, defenses will be looking for the pass much more in the red zone which should allow Grant to improve on his 5 TDs from a year ago. His ADP has him going around the 40th pick. If you could get a 1,200 yard 8-10 TD back in the fourth round you’d love it, wouldn’t you?

Julius Jones, Sea -  Jones has been one of the most frustrating fantasy backs since his solid rookie season in Dallas. His career path is eerily similar to that of Warrick Dunn’s, having some success before switching teams and now playing under Head Coach and Offensive coordinator Jim Mora and Greg Knapp. Dunn proceeded to have his most prolific seasons in his three years in that system. Now that Mora and Knapp are bringing their offense to Seattle, Jones could see a career renaissance akin to Dunn’s. Also, his 4.4 yards per carry last season was a career high. His ADP is over 100, so take a chance on Jones as a backup and see where he takes you.

LenDale White, Ten – From what we’ve seen of White so far his off-season weight-loss has not hurt his ability at the goal-line. Although he will probably lose even more touches to speed-demon Chris Johnson, Tennessee will remain a running offense and White will continue to punch the ball into the end zone. He should still end up with around 650-700 yards sharing time with Johnson and double-digits TDs are almost guaranteed. His biggest upside would have to include an injury to Johnson, but he will be solid either way. With an ADP of 87, LenDale has very little risk but could provide results as big as he used to be.