Week 1 ~ Start and Sit ~ Team Defense and IDP

Posted by Kurt on Sep 9, 2009 in Fantasy Football

Tomorrow, tomorrow, it’s football tomorrow, kick-off’s just a day away. Yes, I’m doing my NFL happy dance and bastardizing old show tunes. We all have our preseason rituals, so don’t bash mine. I’m talking specifically to that guy in Des Moines who’s trying shave a football field in his chest hair. Damn, now I’ll have that stupid song stuck in my head all day. And so will you.

On to football– While everyone else is busy charting who will help on the offensive side of the ball, we’ll take a look at who can help you steal some fantasy games on the defensive side of the ball, because even in fantasy, defense wins games! Week One is always the toughest to predict as we have yet to see a full first-team 60 minute game. Who has improved, who’s struggling to put the pieces together, and how will rookies and line-up turnover impact the team’s defensive performance? There are usually more oddball upsets in week one than any other time in the season. Here are my Start and Sits and Plug ‘n Play options for Week One. If my advice and your gut instinct conflict, never second guess yourself. It’s your team!

KEY:

Start ‘em	Sit ‘em	Plug and Play
Solid defensive option	If they are on your bench, leave ‘em there	Reasonable risk/reward option

Pittsburgh Steelers at Tennessee Titans

Tomorrow night the reigning Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers will take on the mildly surprising Tennessee Titans. I say mildly surprising because I don’t think anyone was expecting them to flourish with Kerry Collins under center last season, and certainly no one would have expected a 13-3 team. I doubt they will do quite so well in 2009, but they will once again need their defense to keep them in the game. Last season the Titans held opponents to less than 15 points a game on average, and only the NY Jets and Indianapolis Colts eclipsed 20 points against them. That said, the loss of Albert Haynesworth will surely hurt, but they have enough weapons left to be solid. The Steelers are generally not a high scoring team, and they count on their defense to win a lot of games. Ironically, the worst drubbing they took last season was a 38-14 loss right before Christmas at the hands of the Titans. I expect a low scoring game to start the season, and both team’s defenses are STARTS.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts

The Jaguars are simply not a viable fantasy option going into 2009, and certainly not against the highly potent Indy offense. no one on the Jags defense reached 100 tackles in 2008. I think Justin Durant will get close this year, and sophomore DE Derrick Harvey should make some big noise in 2009, but he won’t find his way into the sack column against a Colts offensive line that only surrendered 14 sacks all season. Indianapolis is a team that can spot start on defense for you this season, but do not expect big things in terms of turnovers in week one. QB David Garrard is simply not prone to interceptions (he threw 13 all season), and the team was -7 on turnovers vs. opponents last season.

Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints

The lowly Lions will certainly not face another 0-16 season in 2009, but they will not get off to a good start this week against the dynamic Saints offense. Detroit’s defense was deplorably bad in 2008, and while I expect significant improvement in 2009, they will have few games where they give up less than 10 points. This isn’t one of them. Expect the Saints to blow the doors off at home. The Saints are not defensive gems, but week one makes them a nice plug and play option against a team that will struggle to even get in the scoring column.

Philadelphia Eagles at Carolina Panthers

This is one of those games with all the hallmark upset signs chiseled on the wall. The Eagles have a strong offense, and an imposing defense, but the game is being played in Carolina. Panthers’ LBs Thomas Davis and Jon Beason have both faced injuries in the preseason, and Julius Peppers is amidst more trade rumors again, all of which could impact week one performances. That said, I still like the Philly defense to give the Panthers fits, and I expect a special teams return for a score. perhaps Ellis Hobbs will be the game breaker for Philly. If the Panthers manage an upset, look for RB Mike Goodson to be the catalyst.

Dallas Cowboys at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

With second class quarterback options in Tampa (Byron Leftwich starts week one), the offense is going to sputter to start the season. Antonio Bryant will not come close to replicating his 2008 fantasy breakout, and this four-heaed running back by committee is confusing just to think about. Look for the Dallas defense to over-match the Bucs and cause turnovers, while the Cowboys offense wears the Tampa defense down.

New York Jets at Houston Texans

The Jets have new defensive guru Rex Ryan in the cockpit, and I think they will be one of the more dominating defenses in 2009. I would play them this week despite my belief that they will lose the game to the Texans, whose own defense is getting better each season. You can seldom justify benching a special teams unit led by Leon Washington, who can take the ball 100 yards on any given return.

Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens

This is another game with potential upset written all over it. The Ravens are not a high scoring team, and the Chiefs are not…well, much of anything, yet. But new coach Todd Haley is an offensive wizard, and he could pull off a couple of big plays that turn the game in the Chiefs’ favor. That said I still expect the Ravens to win in a moderately low scoring affair.

Miami Dolphins at Atlanta Falcons

The Dolphins are a middling offense, but they have a solid defense. The Falcons have a solid offense, but their defense is suspect, especially with some key losses. I expect a close game, which I’ll give to the home team, and newcomer TE Tony Gonzalez will be the difference maker. Neither defense should kill you this week, but I wouldn’t start either of them.

Minnesota Vikings at Cleveland Browns

Brett Favre and Adrian Peterson are going to make Cleveland’s decent defense look horrid this week. Whoever, the Brown’s QB is, they will have to take to the air against one of the toughest run stopping teams in the NFL. That’s not going to be an easy task, with limited receiving resources, and a coach that likes to run the ball. Look for Brady Quinn to get the starting nod. He’s a better game manager and not as prone to turnovers, which the Vikings love making opponents pay for.

Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals

Don’t look now, but the Cincy defense is surprisingly better than some give it credit for. A healthy Carson Palmer and a reinvigorated receiving corp, led by Ochocinco will make the Bengals a surprise team in 2009. Denver’s defense is woeful (I have them ranked 31st). See Team Defensive Rankings. The Bronco’s offense, is packed with talent, but I wouldn’t expect to see much of it in week one, with a RB carousel, a marginal starting QB, and their top receiver without any preseason reps. If Denver had more time to gel its offense in the preseason I’d make the Cincy D a plug and play start, but I think they could be better than that in week one.

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals

The consensus here would be the overpowering offense of the Cardinals whomping on the 9ers. Do not count those chickens just yet. San Francisco has a way of making games against Arizona tight and ugly. The Cards defense is looking terrible, and the offense is prone to turnovers. Look for a mid-scoring game, with the 49ers stealing it on a turnover. Both defenses are risky picks this week, and neither should be used this season except for occasional plug and play starts.

Washington Redskins at New York Giants

The Giants have a very dominating defense and this game should be no exception, so they are a must start. However, Washington is a team that is a thorn in their rival’s side, so don’t be shocked if the Redskins pull off the upset against a bumbling Eli Manning and his shaky receiving corp. Albert Haynesworth is going to be looking to make his presence known, and rookie Brian Orakpo is going to be in the corner of Manning’s eye all day.

St. Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks look to be solid offensive performers this season as long as QB Matt Hasselbeck’s health remains good. It certainly shouldn’t be an issue in game one. The St. Louis defense ranks in the bottom tier of the league, and their offense has struggled to find solid playing time together in the preseason due to injuries. QB Marc Bulger is also prone to the sack and interceptions.

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers

Both teams have upper tier defenses that I would start most weeks against other teams, but this week I cannot recommend either as more than a marginal play. I think this meeting of familiar enemies with two gunslinger QBs is going to be a shootout. I believe the Packers will get the best of the Bears by games end, but I think both team’s defenses will give up 20 points or more. I would sit both teams, but it is difficult to rule either out because of special teams and turnovers.

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots

If there is anything in the NFL, the equivalent of bloodshed, this week one Monday night game could be it. Perhaps they should give this a parental warning for TV viewers. Tom Brady is back to pick up where he left off in 2007, and Randy Moss, et al, are ready to stomp on the competition. Unfortunately, the poor Bills are the about to be separated from the herd and devoured. It’s not a positive way to start the season, but if you have to get bloody, best to get it over with quickly.

San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders

The west coast hate-fest kicks off with a Monday night game between the diminished Raiders and the famished Chargers. I expect this to be a game heavily waited toward San Diego, despite playing at Oakland. LaDainian Tomlinson should have a very productive game on the ground against one of the worst run defenses in the league. That said, don’t ever count the raiders out, especially at home.

IDP ~ Starts and Sits – News and Notes ~ Week 1

IDP players are not as easy to predict week to week as offensive players are, in terms of who to start and who to sit. Each week one can make an argument for benching a top offensive player who is going against a brutal defense, or rotating flex players based on favorable match-ups. Most fantasy owners save their bench spots for offensive reserves and offensive depth. We rarely look to start and sit options until bye weeks begin. However, it’s important to pay as much attention to your IDP players as you would your offense, because quite often, it’s defensive points that sway games each week. Try and eek at least one bench spot in their for a fantasy defensive reserve. I guaranty it will pay more dividends than that third string RB you were hoping an injury might catapult to fantasy riches.

Notes for you Monday morning waiver wire bandits; don’t drop a stud who puts up one point in week one to grab a guy who put up 10 tackles in his first game of the year. Every season and every week, a handful of defensive players blow up and seem to get in on every play, then they don’t do anything the remainder of the season. Nothing sucks worse than throwing away talent on a one week wonder. Consistency and knowing who faces the favorable match-ups each week is how owners make their IDP players pay off.

IDP Match Up of the Week	VS.
Rookie Detroit Lions QB, Mathew Stafford vs. The New Orleans Saints secondary. Lions coach Jim Schwartz has thrown his support behind the young kid rather than the old vet (Culpepper) despite his 4-1 interception to TD ratio in the preseason. Schwartz sees a budding chemistry with WR Calvin Johnson. Stafford will try to make big plays with Johnson, and you can almost see free safety Darren Sharper salivating. Strong safety Roman Harper and CB Tracy Porter are going to get a lot of chances to create turnovers. The Saints new defense scheme calls for a lot of aggressive blitz packages, which will mean mistakes for Stafford and interceptions for the Saints DBs. Two more guys in black and gold with big smiles? DEs Will Smith and Charles Grant are being allowed to play this week, and will be slashing and gnashing to get to the rookie QB who is protected by an offensive line that surrendered 52 sacks in 2008. That’s second to only San Francisco. Finally, let’s not forget the 54th man on the Saints roster; their loud and proud, crowd, who will be all sorts of distraction for Stafford. Play ‘em, if ya got ‘em!

–Start ‘em–

I won’t bore you with the obvious choices, but each week there will be a few guys you’ll want to look at who are not necessarily big names in IDP…yet. This week it’s an all rookie start ‘em.

Brian Orakpo, DE, WAS ~ A defensive end playing linebacker is fantasy gold. Cash in. Manning down, Manning down!

Patrick Chung, DB, NEP ~ An IDP colleague of mine is high on the Pat’s Brandon Merriweather, but it’s Chung who will replace DB Rodney Harrison’s production. Put that it your fantasy roster and smoke it.

James Laurinaitis, LB, STL ~ He and Seahawks QB Matt Hasselbeck will be come quickly acquainted, as will anyone else touching the ball.

Aaron Curry, LB, SEA ~ On the flipside, Marc Bulger and Steven Jackson should learn this kid’s name. He’ll make an impact statement this week.

Sean Smith, DB, MIA ~ This kid will be draped all over Matt Ryan’s number one receiver (Roddy White), and that means lots of fantasy possibilities to convert to points.

Alphonso Smith, DB, DEN ~ For you return yard junkies, Smith earned the KR/PR duties in the Mile High city. Start redeeming now against the Bengals.

–Sit ‘em–

Sitting top players is never easy to do, but if you have alternatives in week one, sit these guys:

LB Jon Beason, CAR ~ He’s coming back from an MCL injury and will not likely be at 100%

LB Kirk Morrison, OAK ~ Is coming back from a dislocated elbow, and will likely not be at 100%

LB Lawrence Timmons, PIT ~ Is doubtful to play week one due to an ankle injury.

DE Richard Seymour, OAK ~ Seymour was traded from the Patriots this week and has so far failed to show up in Oakland. At this point, regardless of when/if he shows up, starting him before he has time to acclimate with his new team is not advisable.

DB Bob Sanders, IND ~ Is OUT

DB Marcus Trufant, SEA ~ Is OUT

See you in Week 2!