Week 2 ~ Start and Sit ~ Team Defense and IDP

Posted by Kurt on Sep 18, 2009 in Fantasy Football

Last week I went 13-3 in my picks. I lost on the Panthers upset I predicted: Delhomme flat out stank it up. I missed the Jets-Texans call, and thanks to the last minute fluke play by the Bronco’s Brandon Stokely, I missed the Denver-Cincy game. Not bad for a week one full of odd surprises and upsets. I’m quite proud of my 49ers pick.

Here’s last week’s Defense Start Sit column. This week I’ve made a few bold predictions as well; Lions over the Vikes, Jets over the Patriots and Bears over the Steelers. Before we get to this week’s team defense overview and my game picks, let’s look at my IDP thoughts for the week.

–IDP Start ‘em – Week 2–

Last week I made some great calls, like James Laurinaitis of the Rams, and a couple of bonehead calls, Patrick Chung of the Pats, and Alphonso Smith of the Broncos. The latter two are both still long-term fantasy guys for keeper leagues, but despite what team’s said coming out of camp, neither got the starting gigs they were expected to receive. Go figure, the two coaches involved were Bill Bellichick and his mini-me, Josh McDaniels. How did those two keep a straight face while saying their wedding vows? I also recommended benching DE Richard Seymour who proved me wrong by not only showing up, but making an immediate impact. I recommended sitting Kirk Morrison, and he looked awful last week, so I got that one dead on.

Guys I really like after seeing what week one looked like include:

Brian Cushing, LB, HOU ~ Cushing, the aforementioned Lauriniatis, and the Seahawks Aaron Curry are the three rookies I think could be the next Jerod Mayo’s. Laurinaitis looked the part last week. Cushing did not have a huge day, but given that he was on a limited play count due to a preseason injury, he put up decent stats. He should be off the chain this week against the Titans.

Maurice Leggett, DB, KCC ~ I wrote about him in this week’s IDP Fantasy Injury Replacements injury column. I cover several players who I would put on this week’s start list. Check it out.

Lawrence Timmons, LB, PIT ~ Timmons missed week one, but should be a strong start this week.

Shaun Ellis, DL, NYJ ~ Ellis is back after a week one suspension. Get him in there.

Greg Ellis, DL, OAK ~ He’s a bit banged up, but he’ll get the job done just like he did last week against the Chargers.

WildCard Pick: Brandon Chillar, LB, GBP ~ My friend Sean Haugh over at FF Maniaxs isn’t as high on Chillar as I am. I understand that, since Chillar is in a platoon situation right now. But his playmaking ability is explosive. Last week he leaped right over an offensive player to get to his target, and he still put up starter numbers in a part-time roll. If you need help this week, take him for a spin, he might surprise you.

–IDP Sit ‘em–

Anthony Henry, DB, DET ~ Henry looked like an IDP stud last week, but he was playing against the league’s top quarterback in Drew Brees. Don’t expect such lofty numbers this week.

Kirk Morrison, LB, OAK ~ Until he shows he’s back to form, keep him off your active roster.

Fred Robbins, DL, NYG ~ Robbins was a quality IDP option at the thin DL position, but in last week’s game against the Redskins, he didn’t even get on the score sheet. It may be a fluke, but until he does something keep him benched. Defensive tackles are never as good of a fantasy option as defensive ends anyway.

Trent Cole, DL, PHI ~ Yes, Cole is a stud, but the Saints don’t surrender many sacks, so this does not look like a profitable week for Cole, likewise for fellow Eagles DL, Victor Abiamiri.

Mario Williams, DL, HOU ~ I know you can’t really sit this guy, but like Cole above, he’s playing a team that protects it’s QB amazingly well. It will be a low point day for Mario, and Dunta Robinson.

DeAngelo Hall, DB, WAS ~ Somehow Hall managed to look respectable last week, despite looking totally lost on the field. I think this week he bombs.

–Team Defense Start and Sit – Week 2–

Key:

Start ‘em	Sit ‘em	Plug and Play
Solid defensive option	If they are on your bench, leave ‘em there	Reasonable risk/reward option

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons

The Carolina Defense is supposed to be better than the 38 points the Eagles laid on them last week. Their biggest flaw against the opposition last season was surrendering points to opposing tight end. Look for a good game from Tony Gonzalez for the second consecutive week. Philly is a solid team, but the Falcons are no slouch offensively. Michael Turner looked like crap in week 1 against Miami, but last season he laid a 117 yard, 4 TD game on the Panthers in November. Turner won’t do that against their defense this week, but until they show they can stop a decent team, I’d bench them. The way QB Jake Delhomme is handling the offense, the Falcons defense should be able to focus primarily on stopping the run. I don’t expect much offense from Carolina this week. That said, the 2008 Falcons defense was among the top 10 worst teams in allowing fantasy points to opposing QBs, RBs, and TEs. Carolina has a lousy QB and TE situation, so DeAngelo Williams and Jonathon Stewart could be in for big games.

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions

The Minnesota Vikings would seem to be a solid start defensively this week, but I’m being a bit cautious in recommending them because the Lions are very hungry after losing their last 18 games. They looked like a team on an offensive mission last week. I think the Vikes will surrender points, but their defense can make that up by cashing in with at least one defensive TD on what I expect will be another 3-4 Matthew Stafford interceptions. Plus KR Percy Harvin can take it to the house on any given return opportunity. The Lions defense is better than it looked last year, and better than it seemed on Sunday. DBs Anthony Henry and Louis Delmas will be waiting for Favre to force some passes. If I thought they could stop Adrian Peterson they might even be a marginal defense this week. As it is I would not play them, though I am going to go out on my fantasy limb and predict an upset.

Cincinnati Bengals at Green Bay Packers

Say it ain’t so, Ocho. Number 85 is already proclaiming he will score against the new 3-4 Green Bay defense. I think he’ll have 8 receptions and 92 yards, but it will be Laveranues Coles who find the endzone and makes up for his 3 drops in week 1. Last week the Bengals defense looked great against the Denver Broncos. It will take much more to slow down young gun Packer QB Aaron Rodgers this week, so I would not recommend them. Green Bay’s defense looks great under Dom Caper’s renovation. They were the 6th best fantasy defense in week 1 and I think they’ll be top 3 this week. I think they will do a good job of limiting the Bengals all day, nipping the cats for a win.

Arizona Cardinals at Jacksonville Jaguars

The Cardinals defense looked sloppy against San Francisco last week, and now Adrian Wilson, the team’s top cornerback has gotten himself suspended. I expect the Arizona offense to be a better fantasy path this week, but I wouldn’t count on their defense, even against Jacksonville, who has a penchant for surprising teams. The Jags defense looks to get lit up by the Cardinals air show. I’d bench both defenses this week. Look for the Cards put one in the win column after a week’s poor showing.

Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs

The only thing for certain about this game is that neither defense is worth playing. The raiders showed they can play better than expected on offense and so did Kansas City. The downside is both their defenses suck. Oakland’s defense is however improved with Greg Ellis and Richard Seymour up front. Both looked great in Week 1. I think this could be a shoot out, and once again the Chiefs will be on the losing end.

New England Patriots at New York Jets

The New England Patriots have won their last nine road contests against the Jets. Last week the Buffalo defense did a great job of keeping a rusty Brady off his game for the first three quarters. Look for Jets coach Rex Ryan to take a similar approach this week. Jets QB Mark Sanchez doesn’t have the same downfield weapons the Bills have, but expect Sanchez to make use of what he has. RB Fred Jackson found holes in the Patriots defense last week, and now NE has lost stud linebacker Jerod Mayo for 4-8 weeks. Thomas Jones and Leon Washington could have a field day. The Jets managed to keep WR Andre Johnson quiet last week. Let’s see how they handle Moss and Welker. They had no problem stopping the Texans running game, and this week they get back defensive lineman, Shaun Ellis. I think both defenses are moderate plays this week, simply because they are both so good. I think Leon Washington could boost the Jets special teams points.

New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles were the top scoring fantasy defense in week one, but there is simply too much firepower on the saints to expect that this week. DeSean Jackson is not likely to run for a special teams TD. Unless an eagles defender picks off Drew Brees, there’s not much hope for serious points this week. On the flipside, if the Saints couldn’t hold down the Lions offense, what chance do they have to stymie the Eagles, even without Donovan McNabb? I think they’ll go in the red on defense in week 2.

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans

The Titans looked sharp against the Super Bowl champs last week, and barely missed taking the game. They had Roethlisberger on his back more than a hooker during fleet week. The Houston Texans offense managed a paltry 7 points against the new York Jets. This doesn’t look like a better week for them, meaning the Titans defense should be a top 5 fantasy scorer again this week.

St. Louis Rams at Washington Redskins

The Rams went into Seattle and got their horns cut. The only highlight of the game was rookie linebacker James Laurinaitis. He looks like this season’s Jerod Mayo. Meanwhile the Redskins played the Giant’s tough all game. I expect St. Louis to actually score this week but they won’t be able to get past the improved Washington defense with Albert Haynesworth upfront.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Buffalo Bills

The Bills need to put one in the win column this week to keep their morale high and stay out of the AFC East basement with the Dolphins. I believe they will do that in week 2 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who are playing their first game at Buffalo in franchise history. The Bucs looked decent last week against the Dallas Cowboys, but the Bills defense has shown it can get even the best QB off his game. If they do half as good a job at turning Byron Leftwich inside out, they will take away Tampa’s air game, and force them to stick with their four-headed RBBC to move the chains. The Bills kept the Patriots running game in check for the most part last week. The Bucs have Cadillac Williams, Derrick Ward and Earnest Graham who should be more formidable. This task will be tougher with the loss of LB Paul Posluszny and DE Chris Kelsay. On the bright side, Tampa’s top receiver, Antonio Bryant is struggling with an injury and unlikely to play according to recent news. Neither team should be your defense for fantasy purposes this week.

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers

After a slow and shaky start in Week one, the Seahawks shut down the St. Louis Rams. I’m not sure that’s saying very much, but they were the only defense to force a goose-egg on their opponent.  One might think the 49ers are similar enough to the Rams to going quietly too, but we saw what their defense did to another high flying big pass team in the Arizona Cardinals. I don’t think the 49ers will steal a win this week, but they won’t lay down like the Rams did.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Chicago Bears

This is a tough one to call because I am a lifelong Steeler faithful. Pittsburgh’s defense looked typically dominating against the Titans last week, until Troy Polamalu got hurt. Then they were just, okay. And that’s the hard truth with the Steelers defense; without the Flyin’ Hawaiian they are not nearly as formidable. He is the heart of the Steel Curtain. Combine that with a fairly stout Bears defense and Chicago’s new QB carrying a massive week one chip on his shoulder, and I think we may see an upset in a tight game. Both defenses are worth playing this week.

Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos

Who would have expected last week’s defensive showdown in between the broncos defense and that of the Bengals? This week could very well be almost identical. Of course that’s when both team’s will break out and combine for 80 points. I think both offenses will get back on track this week, and I think the Browns defense is a marginal play, and despite last week’s success, I would pass on the Denver D this week.

Baltimore Ravens at San Diego Chargers

The Ravens shocked everyone last week, when their offense looked like an air assault and their defense gave the league’s worst team something to smile about on offense. How often can a bad team put up 24 points against a top defense, using their third string QB? Look for the Ravens defense to tighten up this week against the Chargers, while their offense will come down a bit. The Charger’s defense managed to make the Raiders offense look respectable in week one. The Raven’s will expose them even worse this week.

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys and the Giants always make for interesting games. They split their two meetings last season, and 2007′s season opener was a shoot out. The Giant’s defense is a terror in 2009, while the Dallas defense is still shaping up. I think this could be another high-scoring game, so the Giant’s D is a marginal play this week, and I’d pass on using the Cowboys.

Indianapolis Colts at Miami Dolphins

The Miami Dolphins had four turnovers against the Atlanta Falcons last week, which did not help their cause. I certainly expected them to put up more of a fight, but in the end they couldn’t FINish. (I couldn’t resist). This week they get to face the Indianapolis Colts for their first Monday Night Football game in Miami since Christmas day, 2006. The Dolphins managed to shut down RB Michael Turner, so I don’t expect much in the Colts running game, which means Peyton Manning will have to air it out, and he’ll be having fish for dinner. The Indianapolis defense is better than it seems and I think they’ll keep the Dolphins from doing much offensively.