Week 3 ~ Start and Sit Offense and Predictions

Posted by Kurt on Sep 25, 2009 in Fantasy Football

Drew Brees has nine touchdowns through two games, Tom Brady’s been shut out by the Jets, the top running back in New Orleans is third stringer, Mike Bell, and first round running back picks Maurice Jones-Drew, Michael Turner, Matt Forte, Steve Slaton, LaDainian Tomlinson, Steven Jackson and Brian Westbrook are not even in the top 15 at their position. In fact, Forte, Tomlinson and Slaton are not even in the top 40. I don’t ever recall a fantasy season starting so out-of-whack. There’s always a handful of surprises, but this is Crazy Train, crazy.

Brees is on pace for 72 touchdowns, so I think he may well hit the 50 I predicted in August, barring injury of course. The question is, what will he do this week against the Buffalo Bills. I predict he’ll add 4 more. I predict Brady breaks out of his slump this weekend against the Falcons and puts up 3 TDs. Forte and Slaton will finally break loose, but Turner will continue to disappoint. Of course he’s my pick for first round bust this season. All in all I think week three will shows signs of getting the fantasy world right with the cosmic universe. Be sure to check back Saturday after the final injury report is posted for last minute announcements, barring game time decisions.

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens

The Baltimore Ravens and Cleveland Browns are two teams going in opposite directions. The Ravens have gone from a defense first, run second team, to an air assault. Sophomore QB Joe Flacco has 497 yards and 5 TDs through two games. Meanwhile, rookie QB (well he’s technically not a rookie) Brady Quinn is off to a poor start after losing to the Vikes and Broncos. Unfortunately, I don’t see this being the week they break out and put one in the win column. On the bright side, WR Braylon Edwards is stepping up his game, and managing to hold onto the ball. Coach Eric Mangini needs to put some fire in his running game and give rookie James Davis the pigskin. The Ravens have been solid defensively giving up very little fantasywise to RBs, WRs or TEs, but they have surrendered the 5th most points to QBs. So Sunday is Quinn’s day to show something. The Browns by contrast have been defensively tight against QBs and receivers. They have been terrible at stopping the run.

Start ‘em– Ravens: Joe Flacco, Willis McGahee, Ray Rice, Team Defense — Browns– Braylon Edwards

Sit ‘em– Ravens: Derrick Mason — Browns: Team Defense

Sleeper– The Browns, Joshua Cribbs is always a candidate to break out at WR, on special teams, or as a QB in the wildcat.

Key Injuries– None

Washington Redskins at Detroit Lions

Last week I went out on a limb and predicted the Detroit Lions would upset the Minnesota Vikings, and they did…for two quarters. This week I think they get off the snide and stop their losing streak. The Washington Redskins have been tough against the run, but their secondary is porous. They have also had trouble scoring. Against the N.Y. Giants that’s not surprising; against the St. Louis Rams? That’s troublesome for the Redskins. Despite their two losses, the Lions have been solid against the run. They have been terrible against the pass, though everyone is terrible against Drew Brees. Sunday is Jason Campbell’s day to quiet his detractors.

Start em– Lions: Calvin Johnson, Kevin Smith — Redskins: Santana Moss, Chris Cooley

Sit ‘em– Clinton Portis

Sleeper– Of the Redskins receivers, Campbell seems most in tune with Antwaan Randle El. He could have a big day.

Key Injuries– None

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans

So which Houston Texans team will we see in week 3? The one that got shutdown by the Jets defense or the one that air bombed the Titans defense? The Jacksonville Jaguars have been terrible against the pass through two games. Seventh worst against wide receivers. Texans WR Andre Johnson is averaging 125 yards per game at home over their last nine contests. The Texans run defense is dead last, and the Titans’ Chris Johnson blew them up last week. Jaguars RB Maurice Jones-Drew has a 5.4 YPC average against the Texans for his career.

Start ‘em– Jaguars: Maurice Jones-Drew — Houston Texans: Steve Slaton, Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson

Sit e’m– Jaguars Defense

Sleeper– Jags WR Michael Sims-Walker looked good last week.

Key Injuries– Texans WR Kevin Walter is still questionable to play

Green Bay Packers at St. Louis Rams

The Green Bay Packers seem a bit out of sync on the field so far. last week they simply fell apart against a Cincinnati Bengals team they should have stomped. Packers QB Aaron Rodgers only has 6 more completions and one more TD than St. Louis Rams QB Marc Bulger through 2 games. If they Pack plays like it did last week, the Rams could surprise their critics. RB Steven Jackson will be the Rams primary weapon, and he’s certainly far better than the bengals Cedric Benson who laid 141 yards on GB last week. Packers top WR, Greg Jennings put up his first career goose-egg against Cincy, but fantasy owners need not panic. So far both team’s best receivers are their number two guys, Donald Driver and Laurent Robinson.

Start ‘em– Rams: Steven Jackson, Laurent Robinson — Packers: Ryan Grant, Aaron Rodgers, Greg Jennings

Sit ‘em– GB kicker Mason Crosby has been inconsistent

Sleeper– Rams WR Donnie Avery has yet to come to life, this could be the week. Their defense could also be a pleasant surprise, as the GB O-line has allowed 10 sacks in 2 games.

Key Injuries– OT Chad Clifton. His loss makes the GB O-line even worse.

Atlanta Falcons at New England Patriots

There’s simply no way Brady doesn’t get on track this week, right? They’re back at home Foxboro, he’s had a week to feel his shame, and pump himself up. The Atlanta Falcons defense isn’t nearly what the Buffalo Bills and New York Jets threw at him. While I argued the other day that Brady has gone back to being an average Joe QB, he’s still a pretty crafty average Joe. He will find a way this week to clip the Falcons’ wings and put a legitimate W in the win column for the Pats. Wes Welker may not be back in action this week, as he has not participated in practice, but Jason Edelman has shown he can play the part. Brady had no problem throwing the ball last week, he just couldn’t finish. Randy Moss will score this week. Look for the Pats to establish the run game against a hurting Atlanta rush defense. I predict Falcons’ DL John Abraham and Kroy Biermann will sack Brady in this game. The Patriots have not lost a regular season game to an NFC team in their last 15 contests.

Start ‘em– Pats: Tom Brady, Fred Taylor, Kevin Faulk and Randy Moss — Falcons: Matt Ryan, and Tony Gonzalez.

Sit ‘em– Falcons: Roddy White (He’s bound to break out soon, but the Pats have been very stingy to WRs so far). <strong> </strong>

Sleeper– The Falcons have allowed 300 total yards to running backs in their first 2 games, including 11 receptions for 75 yards. Kevin Faulk could have a nice day.

Key Injuries– WR Wes Welker may be out, LB Jerod Mayo is definitely out.

Tennessee Titans at New York Jets

The New York Jets played the Houston Texans and shut them down, then followed up by shutting the New England Patriots down. The Tennessee Titans played a tight one with the Pittsburgh Steelers, then got into a shoot out with the Texans. Rookie QB Mark Sanchez and the Jets defense have led the team to a 2-0 start against two very good offenses. The 0-2 Titans, well who knows what we’ll see this week from them. Both teams are ranked one and two against the rush through 2 games. The 34 points against the Titans last week all came through the air, and Jets DB Darrelle Revis has taken that away against Randy Moss and Andre Johnson. In fact, the Jets have yet to surrender an offensive touchdown this season. Look for another low scoring afternoon for the Titans, and a moderate day for the Jets. Look for the Titan’s to try and get RB Chris Johnson going early, and to sneak a deep bomb to rookie WR Kenny Britt.

Start ‘em– Jets: Mark Sanchez, Dustin Keller, Team Defense — Titans: Chris Johnson

Sit ‘em– Jets: Thomas Jones — Titans: Everyone not named Chris Johnson

Sleeper– WR Kenny Britt <strong>could</strong> be the first WR to break through against the Jets defense.

Key Injuries– Titans TE Bo Scaife has not practiced all week.

New Orleans Saints at Buffalo Bills

The Buffalo Bills should be 2-0 to start this season, and their defense and back-up running back Fred Jackson are the prime reasons why they almost won against the Pats, and did beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. This is fantasy Fred’s last week to make his place on the field more permanent when Marshawn Lynch returns from suspension in week 4. The Bills have allowed 5 receiving TDs through two games, ironically none to wide receivers. Four have gone to TEs (two in each game), against whom the Bills are ranked dead last so far. Saints TE Jeremy Shockey and his owners have to be delirious. Saints QB Drew Brees already has 9 touchdown passes, and he has hit 10 different targets through two weeks. Buffalo hunting season opens this Sunday. The Saints are 25th against the pass, so Bills WRs Terrell Owens and Lee Evans should see more receptions this week, but I expect the Bills to try and slow New Orlean’s air assault by using RB Fred Jackson to control the clock.

Start ‘em– Bills: Trent Edwards, Fred Jackson — Saints: Drew Brees, Drew Brees (yes, I listed him twice, he’s that damn good so far), Marques Colston, Reggie Bush, Jeremy Shockey

Sit ‘em– No one, this should be an offensive explosion on both sides

Sleeper– WR Devery Henderson could put up another big day as he did against Detroit in week one. For the Saints, RB Pierre Thomas returns this week with something to prove, and Mike Bell likely sidelined.

Key Injuries– RB Mike Bell and WR Lance Moore have not practiced this week for the Saints.

Miami Dolphins at San Diego Chargers

The Miami Dolphins were fairly impressive against the Indianapolis Colts. This week they face a very similar offense in the San Diego Chargers. I don’t expect them to have ball possession for 3/4ths of the game this time. The Chargers looked bad against the Oakland Raiders and pretty week defensively against the Baltimore Ravens. However, they did score well in both games, and I expect them to push the Dolphins hard this Sunday. Don’t expect the Dolphins defense to lay down though. Despite being 0-2 they have played both opponents tough. Look for Chargers TE Antonio Gates to have a big game.

Start ‘em– Miami: Ronnie Brown — Chargers: Philip Rivers, Darren Sproles, Antonio Gates

Sit ‘em– Miami: Expect Ted Ginn, Jr. to go back to sleep <strong> </strong>

Sleeper– Fins RB Ricky Williams could surprise us this week.

Key Injuries– Chargers RB LaDanian Tomlinson and LB Shawne Merriman have not practiced this week.

New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The New York Giants have looked pretty powerful without their longtime star wide receiver, Plaxico Burress, and the fact that stud RB Brandon Jacobs has barely eclipsed 100 yards and has 3.3 YPC average. As loathe as I am to say it, much of the credit goes to the maturation of QB Eli Manning. The rest goes to the stout defense. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been victims of their own defense. Even coach Raheem Morris called it “a mess” after last week’s loss to the Bills. On paper this looks like an easy Giants win, but here’s why the Bucs can beat them: QB Byron Leftwich has actually been fairly solid. He’s passed for 572 yards and 4 TDs. Derrick Ward is back to face the team that let him go, and the Giants defense keeps taking injury after injury. The latest being DE Justin Tuck, who is questionable to play. If the Bucs can limit their turnovers, they can beat the Giants.

Start ‘em– Giants: Eli Manning, Mario Manningham, Steve Smith — Bucs: Cadillac Williams, Kellen Winslow

Sit ‘em– Giant’s WR Domenik Hixon will likely play, but if he does, he’s been invisible so far

Sleeper– Bucs WR Michael Clayton

Key Injuries– Giants: Hakeem Nicks — Bucs: Antonio Bryant and Cadillac Williams. All three have missed practice this week. If Williams plays, I predict an upset.

Kansas City Chiefs at Philadelphia Eagles

Philadelphia Eagles QB Kevin Kolb looked pretty good last week against the Saints, except for those 3 interceptions. This week Kolb has been announced as the starter, but McNabb “could” play, and Michael Vick makes his return to regular season action. How they’ll use him, no one knows. They may be without RB Brian Westbrook and WR DeSean Jackson. The latter hurts them more than the former. LeSean McCoy can fill in nicely for Westy, but Jerry Maclin is Jackson’s probable replacement, and he’s a rookie. The Kansas City Chiefs lost a low scoring heartbreaker to the Oakland Raiders last week. QB Matt Cassel returned and looked okay, but he threw two interceptions. Against the Eagles secondary that could be enough to lose the game. Two surprise names popped onto the fantasy radar for KC, RB Dantrell Savage and WR Bobby Wade. Cassel seems to like both.

Start ‘em– Eagles: LeSean McCoy, Brent Celek, Team Defense — Chiefs: Dwayne Bowe

Sit ‘em– Eagles: Michael Vick — Chiefs: Larry Johnson

Sleeper– Kevin Kolb had a strong start last week. If he can avoid interceptions…

Key Injuries– McNabb, Westbrook and Jackson for the Eagles

San Francisco 49ers at Minnesota Vikings

The San Francisco 49ers are a surprising 2-0, as are the Minnesota Vikings. The difference is, it was expected of the Vikes once Brett Favre signed on. RB Adrian Peterson already has 272 rushing yards and 4 TDs. The San Francisco defense has allowed less than 100 rushing yards, and no rushing TDs. Who will blink first? In their last meeting Peterson ended with 3 yards on 14 carries. Favre has yet to show off his old gunslinger ways, and he may need to this week. 49ers RB Frank Gore has been the team’s offense so far, but the Vikes rush defense looks to end that, meaning QB Shaun Hill is going to have to get something going through the air.

Start ‘em– 49ers: Frank Gore, Vernon Davis — Vikes: Bernard Berrian, Percy Harvin

Sit ‘em– Adrian Peterson (Yes, it’s a gutsy call, but I think he’ll have a bad day)

Sleeper– 49ers: I think WR Josh Morgan could finally do something — Vikes: RB Chester Taylor will succeed where A.P. fails this week

Key Injuries– Percy Harvin’s been ill but should play

Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks

Will Seattle Seahawks QB Matt Hasselback play or won’t he? Magic 8-Ball says game time decision of No! After a brutally ugly week one game against the Green Bay Packers, followed by a steal from the Steelers, the Chicago Bears have to be tripping over themselves to get to Seattle. The Seahawks’ defense is easier to part than Courtney Love’s legs. Look for TE Greg Olsen and RB Matt Forte to finally get some fantasy love this week. Jay Cutler is bound to have some pent up aggression and will unload both barrels on the Seasquabs.

Start ‘em– Bears: Jay Cutler, Matt Forte, Greg Olsen, Earl Bennett, Team Defense — Seahawks: John Carlson

Sit ‘em– Julius Jones, TJ Hushmandzadeh, Seahawks defense

Sleeper– WR Johnny Knox is starting to look like Cutler’s deep threat

Key Injuries– Matt Hasselback, half the Seattle O-line and defense

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals

The Pittsburgh Steelers lost last week to the Chicago Bears by a foot. Jeff Reed’s to be exact. He missed two field goals, which cost them the game. The Steelers once vaunted running game has hit a wall, and QB Ben Roethlisberger must use his arm to get the team down the field. Ben find Ohio much to his liking as he’s 11-0 all time against the Bengals and Browns on the road. Cincinnati Bengals QB Carson Palmer is getting his mojo back, but don’t expect another 28 point drubbing like they gave the Packers. Even without Troy Polamalu, the Steel Curtain should close on the Bengals this week. The one chance the Bengals have is getting Big Ben on his back, and the way he holds onto the ball, look for sacks leader Antwan Odom to put at least one more on his stats.

Start ‘em– Steelers: Ben Roethlisberger, Santonio Holmes, Hines Ward, Team Defense — Bengals: Carson Palmer, Chad Ochocinco

Sit ‘em– The RBs: Willie Parker, Rashard Mendenhal and Cedric Benson

Sleeper– Chris Henry

Key Injuries– None

Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders

Is it possible the little ponies could go 3-0? Denver Broncos QB Kyle Orton finds himself leading his team to the black hole with a division lead. The Oakland Raiders almost beat the Chargers, and managed to scalp the Chiefs on a last minute field goal. Which one of these lame duck teams can get the job done this week? Raiders QB JaMarcus Russell is only connecting on about 35% of his passes and his QB coach has said Russell has stopped improving. There’s a vote of confidence. Owner Al Davis is not happy. Coach Tom Cable could do jail time if convicted of assaulting his assistant, and despite being the worst receiver on the field, rookie Darrius Heyward-Bey is immune to being benched. Oh yeah, and they just got blacked out for their Sunday game. Denver meanwhile has one of the league’s worst QBs and their top two receivers are fantasy washout so far this season. On a good note, their defense is ranked 2nd in fantasy points.

Start ‘em– Raiders: Michael Bush, Darren McFadden, Sebastion Janikowski — Broncos: Knowshon Moreno, Brandon Marshall, Team defense

Sit ‘em– Both QBs

Sleeper– WR Eddie Royal has got to come to life soon, right?

Key Injuries– WR Chaz Schielens is still likely out at least one more week

Indianapolis Colts at Arizona Cardinals

It’s a shootout in the desert. This match-up should be high scoring, and defense be damned. Of course now they’ll have a field goal defensive game to defy the odds. Neither team has a great running game right now. The Arizona Cardinals have made better use of their RBs as pass receivers than runners. The Indianapolis Colts have had a bit more luck running the ball, but not by much. However, the Cards rush defense is one of the best so far, while the Colts is one of the worst. If you have Larry Fitzgerald, Dallas Clark, Anquan Boldin or Reggie Wayne, or either QB- cha ching! Cards QB Kurt Warner looked great last week against the Jags, but this week he faces the league’s top-ranked pass defense. It should be an exciting Sunday night game.

Start ‘em– Everybody but the defenses

Sit ‘em– RBs Joseph Addai and Beanie Wells

Sleeper– RB Tim Hightower

Key Injuries– WR Anthony Gonzalez is out for several more weeks

Carolina Panthers at Dallas Cowboys

The Dallas Cowboys lost a tight one on a last minute field goal to the Giants in their home opener, and QB Tony Romo threw three interceptions. Carolina Panthers QB Jake Delhomme already has five interceptions. This game has all the makings of a snoozer. The Cowboys have the top ranked rushing attack, but leader Marion Barber could miss the game due to injury. The Panthers have a great dou of backs in deAngelo Williams and Jonathon Stewart, but they haven’t been on fire like they were last season. Look for both teams to run the ball a lot. The Cowboys have a better air assault and that’s what will prove to be the difference.

Start ‘em– Cowboys: Tony Romo, Jason Witten, Felix Jones — Panthers, Steve Smith, DeAngelo Williams

Sit ‘em– Jake Delhomme, Mushin Mohammad

Sleeper– RB Tashard Choice. If Barber doesn’t play Choice will be the go to guy

Key Injuries– Marion Barber

Week 3 Start and Sit Team Defense and IDP