Week 3 ~ Start and Sit ~ Team Defense and IDP

The surprises and shake ups continue as we roll into week three. Last week I went 11-5 in my picks, though I did make some bold predictions. I really thought the Lions had a chance. I did go against my Pittsburgh Steelers, calling for a Chicago Bears upset, which was provided off the foot of Jeff Reed, who missed two field goals. That makes me 24 – 8 through two weeks. Not bad. Let’s see how I fair this week.

–Defensive Soundbites–

Through two weeks, the best NFL defense has been the New York Jets. The best fantasy defense has been the Philadelphia Eagles. The Jets have been awful in terms of fantasy production (ranked 26th), despite allowing only 16 total points. The Eagles have surrendered 58 points but also have 7 sacks, 6 interceptions, a safety, a defensive TD, and a kick return TD on special teams. The stingiest defense is not always the best fantasy defense.

The Cincinnati Bengals lead the league in sacks, with 9. Antwan Odom has 7 of them. This week he faces one of the league’s worst offensive lines, and a QB, Ben Roethlisberger, who holds onto the ball longer than any QB in the NFL.

The New York Giants received a big blow with the loss of safety Kenny Phillips, who had to be placed on the IR this week. Add to that, DE Justin Tuck is unlikely to play this week, thanks to the Cowboys Flozell Adams, laying the smackdown on him. This week’s match-up with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers could be an all out offensive blow out.

The worst fantasy defense through Week 2? The Dallas Cowboys have totaled a whopping goose-egg in fantasy points. The Miami Dolphins are second worst.

–IDP Start ‘em ~ Week 3–

–Defensive Linemen–

Antwan Odom, DL, CIN - As mentioned above, it’s almost a lock that Odom will add to his league leading 7 sacks this week. Ben Roethlisberger better hope Odom uses Altoids, because they be face to face a lot.

Ray Edwards, DL, MIN – The San Francisco 49ers have already allowed 6 sacks. I like Edwards and of course Jared Allen to have a nice match-up.

Cullen Jenkins, DL, GBP – Hello Mr. Bulger, would you assume the position please? I think Bulger will be on his back more than Paris Hilton this week.

–Linebackers–

Omar Gaither, LB, PHI – Gaither hasn’t been a powerhouse yet this season, but no one surrenders more tackles to linebackers than the 49 the Kansas City Chiefs have given up. Gaither will be storming the Cassel all day. I’d have put Akeem Jordan here, but he’s a no brainer already.

Rey Maualuga, LB, CIN – Willie Parker and Rashard Mendenhal, say hello to my little friend. “Who Dey” Rey got his first sack last week, and he should have a big day against the Steelers.

E.J. Henderson, LB, MIN – EJ’s looked good since returning from a year off, but I expect a huge day from him against the San Francisco 49ers. They’ll try to use Frank Gore a lot, which will keep Henderson busy, and they surrender a lot of sacks.

–Defensive Backs–

Brian Dawkins, DB, DEN – Dawk has looked solid so far for the Broncos, but I really expect a big against DuhMarcus Russell and the Raiders.

Leodis McKelvin, DB, BUF – The Saints pass the ball a lot so it’s no surprise they surrender the 4th most points to DBs. This week McKelvin covers Marques Colston. Give it to me baby, uh huh, uhuh.

Terrence McGee, DB, BUF – Did I mention the Saints throw a lot of passes? Mcgee will be covering Devery Henderson.

–IDP Sit ‘em ~ Week 3–

–Defensive Linemen–

Justin Tuck, DL, NYG – He’s hurt and may not play. Keep him out this week.

Justin Smith, DL, SFO - He’s just not getting enough OLB sots and it’s killing his value.

Elvis Dumervil, DL, DEN – He plays LB this year but still qualifies as a DL. Last week he exploded. This week I think he’ll fizzle.

–Linebackers–

Lofa Tatupa, LB, SEA – He can’t stay healthy. Heep him benched until he shows us something.

Channing Crowder, LB, MIA - Clam Chowder has really hurt teams who were counting on numbers similar to last year’s production. There’s better tools on the waiver wire. Bench him or dump him, but don’t play him.

–Defensive Backs–

Kenny Payne, DB, CHI – Coach Lovie Smith has yanked Payne in favor of Daniael Manning.

Michael Huff, DB, OAK - Huff has re-ingratiated himself with the Raiders coaching staff after starting off with 3 interceptions in 2 games. He was a hot waiver wire commodity this week. Odds of him getting an INT this week against the Broncos? Next to nil.

Cedric Griffin, DB, MIN – The 49ers don’t have much of a passing game yet, and Griffin should line up against Josh Morgan who has yet to be utilized in the pass game. It looks like an unproductive fantasy day for C.G.

–Team Defense Start and Sit – Week 3–

Key:

Start ‘em	Sit ‘em	Plug and Play
Solid defensive option	If they are on your bench, leave ‘em there	Reasonable risk/reward option

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Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens defense is almost always a good start because they generally keep the score low and they have a lot of play-makers. That side, they are middle of the pack in fantasy scoring through two weeks. The Browns would not seem to be a good defensive start this week, but they have been one of the best at limiting fantasy production to quarterbacks, and they are pretty solid against the receiving game. Look for the Ravens to stay on the ground Sunday.

Washington Redskins at Detroit Lions

Would it surprise you to know the Lions are ranked 6th in fantasy points for defense after week 2? The Redskins are 24th. Both teams will play desperate football this week looking for a win. There will be a lot of balls flying around. Insert your own bad joke here. Jason Campbell will have to prove he can make things happen this week or his days in D.C. are numbered. That means ample interception and turnover opportunities. As always expect 3-4 interceptions from Lion’s QB Matthew Stafford.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans

Neither of these teams have been good fantasy options through weeks one and two and it’s not likely to change this week. This game could be a low scoring defensive affair or it could blow up like the Texans Titans game last week. Expect both offenses to exploit the others defense weaknesses. regardless it won’t parlay into fantasy value.

Atlanta Falcons at New England Patriots

Either of these team’s could be a plug and play option this week in what looks to be a air show between Matt Ryan and Tom Brady, but neither QB makes many mistakes, limiting the opportunities for pick offs and turnovers. Neither is a threat for a big special teams play; kick off or punt return for TD, so I’d go with better options this week.

Green Bay Packers at St. Louis Rams

Despite looking like a train wreck on both sides of the ball last week, the Green Bay Packers defense has been the 4th most productive from a fantasy perspective. Against a desperate Rams team I expect that to continue. There should be enough sacks, interceptions and turnovers to reward fantasy owners this week.

San Francisco 49ers at Minnesota Vikings

The 49ers will have a difficult time running the ball with Frank gore against the Vikings run defense. That means Shaun Hill will have to start throwing the ball. So far he hasn’t done much of that, or at least not with any success. There is no magic connection with his receivers yet outside of Isaac Bruce, which means turnover opportunities should exist for one of the leagues better fantasy defenses.

Tennessee Titans at New York Jets

Both are considered top ten defenses yet both are questionable fantasy options. Why? Fantasy value is not based solely on points allowed. One expects a tight defensive game. Really fantasy value comes from tackles, sacks, turnovers, special teams and so on. Through the first two weeks the Titans and Jets are ranked 20th and 26th in fantasy scoring respectively. I have made them both plug and play options because they can both do something special on D, they just haven’t done it yet.

New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

You always have to play the Giants defense, it’s just too damn good to sit. They’ll give up points this week, and they’re without Justin Tuck and Kenny Phillips, but they’re the second best fantasy producer on defense so far. Buccaneers QB Byron Leftwich throws the ball often and he makes a lot of mistakes. This bodes well for another productive turnover day for the G-men. This is still my upset pick this week though.

Kansas City Chiefs at Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles are the number one fantasy producing defense, head and shoulder pads above the rest. The Chiefs are a team desperate and rather discombobulated (yeah, I had to use it) offensively. New coach Todd Haley wants to make things happen but his weapons have been miss-firing. The Chiefs are not likely to score much this week, but oh will they try. Let me hear you say, yeah! Look for a good fantasy day for the Eagles for the third straight week.

New Orleans Saints at Buffalo Bills

The Saints and Bills, spot starts on defense? Are you kidding me? I kid you not. Forget all the points likely to be surrendered. The Bills and Saints rank 3rd and 5th respectively in fantasy points scored. Both will be lobbing balls back and forth like watching a Venus and Serena Williams tennis match. I expect to see about 700+ yards of passing offense. Perhaps air traffic control should be notified. Look for turnovers and fantasy gold.

Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks will be without QB Matt Hasselbeck this week, and Seneca Wallace is not going to strike fantasy fear into anyone’s heart. Julius Jones won’t be able to run the ball, and I suspect the Bears will be up early. Wallace will have to start forcing plays against one of the league’s better defenses. The Bears already have 6 sacks on the young season, so it may be a long day for Seahawks fans, and their poor offensive line.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals

You could make an argument for benching the Steelers defense. They have been pretty solid, but from a fantasy perspective, lousy; 2 sacks 1 interception. Still, you have to play them. I’ll save my brain cells to argue the merits of starting the Bengals D. As mentioned earlier, they lead the league in sacks with 9. The Steelers offensive line is more like tinfoil, and Ben Roethlisberger holds onto the football so long you could grab a beer between snap and pass. The Steelers usually only generate enough offense to win. Combine the two and the Bengals are a decent plug and play defense option in week 3.

Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders

The Broncos defense have 7 sacks and 3 interceptions, and they’ve allowed a whopping 13 points against. This week they face one of the league’s most inaccurate and sloppy passers and a flimsy offense line. If there were any week to start the Broncos D, this may be it. Oddly enough the Raiders have been one of the best teams in terms of not surrendering points to opposing defenses, but they played the sloppy Chargers and the hapless Chiefs. If JaMarcus Russell continues to throw balls everywhere but where his receivers are, the Broncos secondary will eat him alive.

Indianapolis Colts at Arizona Cardinals

I think the reasons to bench both of these defenses are fairly obvious. If all goes as anticipated it will keep interceptions and sacks to keep both teams out of the red with all the points they’ll be giving up. The Cards are ranked 7th in fantasy defense points because of their 8 sacks, however, Peyton Manning almost never gets sacked. There could be some costly turnovers that go for defensive scores, but they are too hard to predict. Get your defensive points elsewhere this week.

Miami Dolphins at San Diego Chargers

The Dolphins rank second to last in defensive fantasy production so far, with 1.5 fantasy points per game. The Chargers aren’t far behind at 3 points per game. There’s really not much else to say. This may be the lameduck game of the week on both sides of the ball.

Carolina Panthers at Dallas Cowboys

The league’s worst fantasy defense is the Dallas Cowboys. As I mentioned above they have zero fantasy points in two games. Ouch. The Carolina Panthers are at 3 points a game. The Monday night affair will be fun to watch, but neither team is likely to help you from a fantasy perspective in week 3. I wonder if special teams qualifies for a fantasy bonus if that hit that monster video screen hanging over the Cowboy’s field? Hmmm.

Start and Sit for Offense week 3

What I was listening to while writing this week’s article- Halestorm: