Week 4 ~ Start and Sit Team Defense and IDP

Posted by Kurt on Sep 29, 2009 in Fantasy Football

What a wickedly weird and wacky week in the NFL, and subsequently, fantasy football. I ended the week going 13-3 again. My upset of the week, the Bucs over the Giants, turned out to be my worst call through three weeks. The other two I missed were the Jags nipping the Texans, and the Steelers falling to the Bengals. That one hurt the most. After three weeks I am a solid 37-11 in my picks. I did get the Lions upset correct. Here’s last week’s column.

–Week 3 Soundbites–

Drew Brees, after throwing nine TD passes in two weeks, throws up a goose-egg against the Buffalo Bills. Hmm, didn’t they give Tom Brady grief too?

The Detroit Lions stopped their losing streak at 19, and perhaps ending QB Jason Campbell’s starting days in Washington.

Minnesota’s “All Day” Adrian Peterson had only 85 yards and no scores. For your second or third RB that would be a nice day, but for Purple Jesus, not so much. I recommended sitting him in week three, and it’s a call I feel good about. In the same game, the legend of Brett Favre added yet another chapter with his last second game-winning bomb to newly acquired WR Greg Lewis, who stayed in bounds by a toenail.

For the second week the Houston Texans defense had more holes than a spaghetti colander, allowing the Jacksonville Jaguars, and specifically RB Maurice Jones-Drew, to run wild.

Once again the New York Giants defense, without  safety Kenny Phillips or defensive end Justin Tuck, still shutdown the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, forcing QB Byron Leftwich to the bench.

Leftwich was only one of ahandful of starting quarterbacks to find themselves knocked out of the game by poor play or injury. The Rams’ Marc Bulger was hurt, as was the Dolphins’ Chad Pennington. The Browns pulled Brady Quinn for Derek Anderson, to no avail. The Giant’s David Carr found himself taking over for Eli Manning in a blow out. And what of the first look at Michael Vick? He threw two incomplete passes and ran one time for seven yards. Eagles back-up QB Kevin Kolb looked great throwing for 327 yards and two scores.

After three weeks, seven teams, the Colts, Vikings, Broncos, Saints, Ravens, Giants and the surprising Jets, remain undefeated. That number will drop by at least one as the immovable object meets the unstoppable force when the New York Jets defense faces the New Orleans Saints offense in Louisiana.

For IDP fantasy teams, yesterday’s games brought another slew of injuries. Top IDP DB, Leodis McKelvin was perhaps the biggest fantasy casualty. He can be dropped in all but dynasty and keeper leagues. The Bills’ Donte Whitner is also out for an as yet undetermined amount of time after requiring surgery on his thumb. Colts’ DL, Dwight Freeney will be out at least two weeks with an quadriceps injury

–IDP Start ‘em ~ Week 4–

I had a miserable week with my IDP Defensive Linemen starts last week. All were poor fantasy producers. I’ll try to make amends this week. My starts this week are all guys who are barely owned in most leagues and should be solid beyond week 4 as well.

–Defensive Linemen–

Marcus Stroud, BUF ~ With injuries piling up for the Bills, Stroud will be asked to apply even more pressure to opposing QBs. Through three weeks he is a top 15 DL in Yahoo and ESPN leagues and he’s only about 6% owned in both. If you need help at DL or a bye week fill in, grab him.

Ray Edwards, MIN ~ Like Stroud, Edwards is another top DL performer so far this season. I pitched him last week and he let me down, but that just makes the fact that he’s a top 15 performer despite a poor week, even more impressive. He’s currently only owned in about 13.5% of ESPN and Yahoo leagues.

Greg Ellis, OAK ~ Ellis qualifies at DL in Yahoo leagues but not ESPN, so check your own league’s position eligibility. But if he does qualify at DL in your league, snap him up because he’s putting up linebacker stats. he’s only 19% owned in Yahoo leagues.

–Linebackers–

E.J. Henderson, MIN ~ Henderson missed the 2008 season due to injury, but in 2007 he was a 100 tackle monster. This season he seems to be overlooked in most IDP leagues. He’s a top 10 performer so far, but he’s only owned in 17% of Yahoo leagues.

Scott Shanle, NOS ~ Like Henderson above, Shanle is a top 10 performer through 3 weeks of play. Quite surprising given that his offense is on the field most of the time. This week they face the Jets, so he’ll see more field opportunities. He’s only owned in about 7.5% of most leagues.

David Hawthorne, SEA ~ This is one of those risk/reward picks. He barely played in week 1. In week 2 he had 6 tackles. Last week he filled in for Lafu Tatupa, who always seems to be hurt, and he racked up 16 tackles. The Seahawks will find ways to play this guy even when Tatupa is healthy. I think for week 4 he’ll have another solid day. He’s only owned in about 2% of all leagues, though that will change after Sunday’s performance. He will be this week’s top IDP pick up. If you have a high waiver pick I don’t know that I’d burn it on this kid unless you’re truly strapped at LB.

–Defensive Backs–

Tyvon Branch, OAK ~ I pitched this kid as a sleeper in the preseason, and so far his top 12 ranking amongst fantasy DBs is proving me correct, yet he’s still only owned in about 7% of all leagues. After a rash of week one IDP injuries I recommended him again. In week 4 the Raiders face the Texans, and QB Matt Schaub, who likes throwing the ball. If you need help at DB, grab this kid before someone else does.

Abram Elam, CLE ~ Elam has been another under the radar producer. I have said time and again in IDP, you want guys who consistently get tackles. They are the ones making plays and putting up points each week. Sacks and interceptions are hard to predict. The two defensive backs with the most solo tackles through three weeks? Elam and Tyvon Branch, with 21 each. Elam also has a sack. In week 4 he faces Carson Palmer and the Bengals. Perhaps this week he’ll get his first interception. He’s a top 10 fantasy DB so far, but only owned in 2.7% of ESPN leagues, and 8% of Yahoo leagues.

Antoine Bethea, IND ~ Bethea has had an interception in 2 consecutive weeks, and is a top 5 producing fantasy DB so far. He’s only owned in about 17% of fantasy leagues. This week he plays against either Seahawks’ back-up Seneca Wallace, or an interception prone Matt Hasselbeck. Sing it with me: “Money, money, money, money…money”

–IDP Sit ‘em ~ Week 4–

–Defensive Linemen–

Albert Haynesworth, WAS ~ The big man finally got his first sack last week, and subsequently got hurt on the play. He returned later, and coach Zorn says he’s fine, but I’m keeping him on the bench this week against at Tampa Bay team that will be working extra hard to protect their new QB.

Justin Smith,  SFO ~ I had him on this list last week and he racked up 3 tackles. At this point, given that he was drafted as a top ten DL pick in IDP leagues, you may want to consider dropping him, or if you have bench depth, keeping him out of your line-up. I dumped him in my league.

Chris Long, STL ~ At some point this kid is going to connect the dots and break free, but unless you’re in a dynasty league, it’s time to cut the apron strings. Bench him, or set him free.

–Linebackers–

Lafu Tatupa, SEA ~ Here’s another guy I recommended sitting last week. He did start Sunday, but was yanked almost immediately. Until he can show he is back and healthy, keep him benched.

Mike Vrabel, KCC ~ Vrabel was supposed to bring his IDP prowess to Kansas City this year, but the entire Chiefs defense is a mess. OTher than 7 solo tackles in week one, Vrabel has done very little. This week they face the Giants. Sit him.

Bradie James, DAL ~ James was another top LB pick with over 100 tackles last season. So far he’s been pretty generic. This is one of those sits that could back fire on me this week when he plays the Broncos. But until he shows me something in 2009, he’s bench fodder unless I need a bye week fill in.

–Defensive Backs–

Terrance Newman, DAL ~ There’s going to be a waiver rush to grab Newman this week. After his week 3 interception and TD return, he has vaulted up the scoreboard at DB. But he’s been underwhelming prior to Monday night’s good fortune. This week he plays the Broncos, and as lame as QB Kyle Orton is, he has been excellent at not making bad passes and turning the ball over. Plus Denver likes to run more than they throw.

Michael Huff, OAK ~ Huff was a popular waiver wire pick up last week after 3 interceptions in two games, only playing part time. Coach Cable gave him the starting gig in week 3 and I recommended sitting him. Those who played him were rewarded with 3 tackles and one pass defense before he left the game injured. He should play this week, but as mentioned before, interceptions can’t be predicted, and through 3 games, Huff has a whopping 6 tackles.

Brandon Merriweather, NEP ~ Merriweather was supposed to be the fantasy replacement for the retired Rodney Harrison. I favor Patrick Chung, but so far coach Bellichick isn’t listening to me. The kid doesn’t have one pass defense all season, and he’s averaging 3 tackles a game, and no interceptions. This week he faces the Ravens, and TE Todd heap will make him look silly all day. Sit him, or at this point I’d considered dumping him for one of the guys I mentioned above.

–Team Defense Start and Sit – Week 3–

Key:

Start ‘em	Sit ‘em	Plug and Play
Solid defensive option	If they are on your bench, leave ‘em there	Reasonable risk/reward option

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Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears

I’m amazed any time a throw a thumbs up on the Detroit Lions‘ defense but they are ranked 9th in fantasy points, followed at number 10 by the Chicago Bears they’ll face this week. Bears’ QB Jay Cutler now has two wins to put the confidence back in his sails but he is still prone to interceptions, and the Lions’ defense has a lot of confidence, and the team is pumped after ending their 19 game losing skid. It should be a cold day at Soldier Field and I expect a low scoring game.

Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns

The Cincinnati Bengals should be 3-0. They shocked Green Bay in week 2, then upset the Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers, who lost late for the second consecutive week. The Bengals are no longer playing like the Bungles. Meanwhile the Cleveland Browns look like turds circling the bowl. Who knows which QB the Bengals defense will face this week, but interception and sack opportunities should be plentiful. Somehow DE Antwan Odom did not sack Big Ben last week. Look for him to get number 8 this week.

Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans

The Oakland Raiders have so many problems on both sides of the ball, I think Rich Gannon may be right, blow the stadium and the team up, and throw Al Davis under the team bus. It’s time to bench rookie WR Darius Heyward-Bey, and if JaMarcus Russell cannot fulfill on his promise, it’s time to snag Michael Vick from the Eagles. On the other side of the field, the Houston Texans are an anomaly. In week one they had no offense. In week 2 they were all offense, and last week they were all offense again. The one constant so far has been the horrendous play of the defense.

Seattle Seahawks and Indianapolis Colts

This is a tough game to call not knowing who will be under center for the Seasqaubs, but regardless the Colts should have this one in hand, and go up 4-0 on the season. The Seahawks just can’t stay healthy on either side of the ball. They do have 9 sacks, but the Colts offensive line is very good at keeping Peyton Manning on his feet. The Colts have 7 sacks through three games, and the Seattle offensive line is held together with chewing gum, and rubberbands at this point. That said, I still wouldn’t start either defense this week in what could be a high-scoring affair. I’m guessing Hasselbeck will play.

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars

The Titans rely primarily on their running game, but so far the Jags have been pretty solid, allowing only 3 TDs to running backs, and not a ton of yardage. The Titans on the other hand have been the best against the run allow no scores and only 231 total rushing and receiving yards to RBs. Don’t look for Maurice Jones-Drew to have another three TD performance this week. Despite last week’s offense explosion, the Jags will have a hard time against Tennessee this week. This game should be one of Sunday’s duller affairs, but the Titans will get their first win.

New York Giants at Kansas City Chiefs

Do I even need to write anything here? The Giants have the number one fantasy defense playing this week (the Eagles are on a bye). They totally dominated the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last week, even without Justin Tuck and Kenny Phillips, and the Chiefs are in worse shape than the Bucs. The one positive feature for Kansas City this week is they play at home in Arrowhead Stadium, giving the team the loudest crowd and perhaps best home field advantage in the league.

Baltimore Ravens and New England Patriots

The Baltimore Ravens are 3-0 on the strength of their offense. Joe Flacco is turning into a top flight QB, and quasi-discarded RB, Willis McGahee has 2 touchdowns on every game so far. Meanwhile the New England Patriots offense has been sputtering to keep the team moving in the right direction. Tom Brady has been rusty, and Wes Welker has missed two games. Welker has long been Brady’s safety valve. And of course the Patriots’ defense has been decimated by injuries and retirements. They will be hard pressed to get going against the Ravens, but if anyone can surprise, it’s Brady and Co.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Redskins

Despite the fact that Tampa’s QB Byron Leftwich performed fairly well in weeks one and two, coach Raheem Morris yanked him for third string QB Josh Johnson in week three’s debacle against the Giants. Johnson will get the start this week against the floundering Redskins. No doubt we’ll see rookie QB Josh Freeman before long. The Redskins meanwhile lost to the Detroit Lions, and their only win this season came against the St. Louis Rams in week 2, when Washington squeaked past them with 9 points. Redskins QB Jason Campbell has not played horribly. In fact he’s the 12th ranked fantasy QB through three games. But he is the one who will face the music, if the ‘skins don’t get going on offense pretty quickly. A game against the Bucs could be just the medicine they need.

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins

The Buffalo Bills defense is ranked 4th in fantasy scoring so far, mostly on the strength of two defensive touchdowns. They are the first team to keep Drew Brees from a passing touchdown so far, but in the process lost three of their key players, Donte Whitner, Leodis McKelvin and Bryan Scott. Whitner and McKelvin will not face the Dolphins this week for sure. Miami lost their starting quarterback, Chad Pennington for the season. Their defense is solid, though not for fantasy purposes, so they should keep the game close, but look for T.O. to be more involved for the Bills, and likely score in the game.

New York Jets at New Orleans Saints

The leagues stingiest defense meets the league’s best offense. One of these 3-0 teams is going to get their first loss. This should be one of the week’s more compelling contests. The Bills held Drew Brees without a TD pass last week, but the Saints still put up 27 points. Saints WR Marques Colston is going to have a rough day against the leagues best DB, Darrelle Revis.  Which team will walk away with a 4-0 record? I’m going to go with the Saints to bring Jets rookie QB, Mark Sanchez back to reality. They have too much offense, and they also are tied with the Giants for the second best fantasy defense.

Dallas Cowboys at Denver Broncos

How can the Cowboys be so bad defensively yet be 2-1 in football’s toughest division? This week they play the upstart Broncos have have used smoke and mirrors (along with a favorable schedule) to go 3-0 to start the season. Denver is running the ball well, as usual, despite splitting carries with four backs. The injury to Brandon Stokely finally got WR Brandon Marshall into the game more prominently, and he immediately scored. The Broncos defense is tied for the league lead with 10 sacks to go along with 5 interceptions. The Cowboy’s defense has been abysmal from a fantasy standpoint, and not much better in reality. I think the Cowboys will win the game, but it’s Broncos defense that’s worth the start.

St. Louis Rams at San Francisco 49ers

The San Francisco 49ers were mere seconds away from a perfect 3-0 season before Brett Favre pulled a last minute…well, Brett Favre. This week the 49ers play a desperate Rams team who cannot seem to get anything going. St. Louis scored their first offensive touchdown of the season last week when QB Kyle Boller took over for the injured Marc Bulger, who is questionable to play this week. Boller hooked up twice with fullback Daniel Fell for two TD passes. Fell has only 3 receptions all season. The team’s leading wide receiver, Laurent Robinson is now lost for the season with an ankle injury. WR Donnie Avery needs to step up and stop dropping balls. On the bright side they finally got RB Steven Jackson heavily involved with 163 yards total offense. For the 49ers, oft maligned tight end, Vernon Davis caught 7 balls for 95 yards and 2 TDs on Sunday.

San Diego Chargers at Pittsburgh Steelers

You may be wondering how I can only list the Steelers as a marginal play this week. They are the best defense in the NFL. Even when they lose they limit points. This is all true. However, without Troy Polamalu they are a shadow of their fantasy productive selves. They are currently ranked 30th in fantasy production averaging 2 measely points a week. Ouch. The Chargers, by contrast are ranked 11th, and playing against Big Ben, sack opportunities abound.

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings

This is going to be the game of the week for obvious reasons. It could only be better if they were playing at Lambeau Field in Green Bay. Both teams are tied for 5th in defensive fantasy scoring, averaging 6.7 points a week. Both sides of the ball will be unusually amped up for this game. It’s on Monday Night Football, Favre will be playing against his old team, and the Vikings are 3-0 to start the season. Favre’s former pupil has been adequate through three games, but not like we saw in 2008. He’ll have extra reason to be playing his ‘A’ game this week. Green Bay has yet to allow a TD to a running back. Can Purple Jesus part the green and yellow seas?

Do not forget the Philadelphia Eagles, Arizona Cardinals, Atlanta Falcons and Carolina Panthers will be on Bye this week. Adjust your rosters accordingly.

What I was listening to while writing this week’s article – Five Finger Death Punch: