Week 5 Match-ups To Avoid and Exploit ~ By the Numbers
Posted by Kurt on Oct 8, 2009 in Fantasy Football
The Colts won't be monkeying around in Week 5
Unless you’re a stats geek with too much time on your hands, you probably don’t look too deeply at weekly match-ups, beyond this team is good, and that one stinks. Quite often, that is all you need. For those of you who want a more accurate look but don’t have the time to invest, that’s what Top Fantasy is here for. My name is Rustyn and I’m a fantasy geek. So take advantage of my illness, and let’s see if we can’t use it to help you improve your fantasy decision making this week. These suggestions are all made “by the numbers”, meaning statistically these are either advisable or poor match-ups in terms of fantasy production I’ll try to keep opinion out of it, and give you just the stats, man. Just the stats.
The top 5 easiest are the teams surrendering the most points to a given position. The guys listed are advisable plays. The top 5 toughest are the teams that surrender the least points at a given position. The guys listed are advisable sits, based solely on the numbers. As an example, the numbers tell me to sit Rams RB Steven Jackson this week, but since St. Louis has no other offensive options, I’ll probably start him anyway, though according to the stats, he’s looking at a bad day.
– QB Match-ups to Exploit or Avoid–
|
Top 5 Easiest vs. QBs |
Passing |
Rushing |
Fantasy |
||||||||
|
Team |
G |
Cmp |
Att |
Yard |
TD |
INT |
Att |
Yard |
TD |
Ftsy Pts Allowed |
Week 5 Opp |
| 1. Tennessee Titans |
4 |
102 |
149 |
1,214 |
10 |
3 |
17 |
55 |
1 |
112.2 |
P. Manning |
| 2. Detroit Lions |
4 |
95 |
131 |
1,008 |
12 |
2 |
7 |
26 |
1 |
107.0 |
Roethlisberger |
| 3. Arizona Cardinals |
3 |
65 |
109 |
870 |
7 |
2 |
6 |
26 |
0 |
74.1 |
M. Schaub |
| 4. Jacksonville Jaguars |
4 |
110 |
153 |
1,150 |
7 |
4 |
9 |
7 |
1 |
92.2 |
M. Hasselbeck |
| 5. Kansas City Chiefs |
4 |
77 |
139 |
1,035 |
8 |
2 |
13 |
21 |
1 |
91.9 |
T. Romo |
|
Top 5 Toughest vs. QBs |
Passing |
Rushing |
Fantasy |
||||||||
|
Team |
G |
Cmp |
Att |
Yard |
TD |
INT |
Att |
Yard |
TD |
Ftsy Pts Allowed |
Week 5 Opp |
| 28. Indianapolis Colts |
4 |
101 |
160 |
901 |
2 |
3 |
9 |
26 |
1 |
61.7 |
K. Collins |
| 29. Washington Redskins |
4 |
69 |
115 |
728 |
4 |
2 |
14 |
70 |
0 |
59.4 |
J. Delhomme |
| 30. New York Giants |
4 |
58 |
113 |
523 |
4 |
5 |
9 |
62 |
1 |
54.4 |
J. Russell |
| 31. New York Jets |
4 |
76 |
149 |
742 |
1 |
4 |
6 |
16 |
0 |
42.7 |
C. Henne |
| 32. Denver Broncos |
4 |
76 |
127 |
724 |
0 |
6 |
7 |
28 |
0 |
39.0 |
T. Brady |
– RB Match-ups to Exploit or Avoid–
|
Top 5 Easiest vs. RBs |
Rushing |
Receiving |
Fantasy |
||||||
|
Team |
G |
Att |
Yard |
TD |
Rec |
Yard |
TD |
Ftsy Pts Allowed |
Week 5 Opp |
| 1. Cleveland Browns |
4 |
117 |
616 |
8 |
24 |
183 |
0 |
127.9 |
Lynch/Jackson |
| 2. Buffalo Bills |
4 |
112 |
551 |
7 |
24 |
170 |
1 |
120.1 |
Harrison/Lewis |
| 3. Houston Texans |
4 |
101 |
542 |
7 |
22 |
169 |
1 |
119.1 |
Hightower/Wells |
| 4. Carolina Panthers |
3 |
84 |
445 |
2 |
12 |
77 |
2 |
76.2 |
C. Portis |
| 5. Oakland Raiders |
4 |
133 |
533 |
4 |
20 |
167 |
1 |
100.0 |
Jacobs/Bradshaw |
|
Top 5 Toughest vs RBs |
Rushing |
Receiving |
Fantasy |
||||||
|
Team |
G |
Att |
Yard |
TD |
Rec |
Yard |
TD |
Ftsy Pts Allowed |
Week 5 Opp |
| 28. Denver Broncos |
4 |
86 |
269 |
2 |
27 |
186 |
0 |
57.5 |
Patriot RBs |
| 29. Miami Dolphins |
4 |
78 |
240 |
1 |
20 |
187 |
1 |
54.7 |
T. Jones |
| 30. Minnesota Vikings |
4 |
86 |
294 |
0 |
18 |
172 |
0 |
46.6 |
S. Jackson |
| 31. Tennessee Titans |
4 |
92 |
252 |
1 |
13 |
92 |
0 |
40.4 |
Addai/Brown |
| 32. Pittsburgh Steelers |
4 |
63 |
223 |
1 |
14 |
95 |
0 |
37.8 |
K. Smith |
– WR Match-ups to Exploit or Avoid–
|
Top 5 Easiest Vs. WRs |
Receiving |
Fantasy |
||||
|
Team |
G |
Rec |
Yard |
TD |
Ftsy Pts |
Week 5 Opp |
| 1. Tennessee Titans |
4 |
61 |
810 |
7 |
123.0 |
Wayne/Collie/Garcon |
| 2. Jacksonville Jaguars |
4 |
65 |
825 |
5 |
112.5 |
Houshmandzedah/Burleson |
| 3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
4 |
30 |
603 |
8 |
108.3 |
|
| 4. Arizona Cardinals |
3 |
38 |
574 |
3 |
75.4 |
A. Johnson/K. Walter |
| 5. Kansas City Chiefs |
4 |
42 |
670 |
5 |
97.0 |
Crayton/Austin/Hurd |
|
Week 5 Toughest vs. WRs |
Receiving |
Fantasy |
||||
|
Team |
G |
Rec |
Yard |
TD |
Ftsy Pts |
Week 5 Opp |
| 28. Minnesota Vikings |
4 |
32 |
386 |
2 |
50.6 |
D. Avery |
| 29. Carolina Panthers |
3 |
25 |
312 |
1 |
37.2 |
S. Moss/Randle El |
| 30. New York Jets |
4 |
42 |
433 |
1 |
49.3 |
Ginn, Jr./Hartline |
| 31. Denver Broncos |
4 |
39 |
445 |
0 |
44.5 |
R. Moss/Welker/Galloway |
| 32. New York Giants |
4 |
24 |
256 |
1 |
31.6 |
Murphy/Heyward-Bey |
– TE Match-ups to Exploit or Avoid–
|
Top 5 Easiest vs. TEs |
Receiving |
Fantasy |
||||
|
Team |
G |
Rec |
Yard |
TD |
Ftsy Pts Allowed |
Week 5 Opp |
| 1. Minnesota Vikings |
4 |
30 |
378 |
4 |
61.8 |
McMichael/Fells |
| 2. Buffalo Bills |
4 |
24 |
253 |
4 |
49.3 |
R. Royal |
| 3. Tennessee Titans |
4 |
28 |
312 |
3 |
49.2 |
D. Clark |
| 4. Pittsburgh Steelers |
4 |
25 |
264 |
3 |
44.4 |
B. Pettigrew |
| 5. Miami Dolphins |
4 |
17 |
320 |
2 |
44.0 |
D. Keller |
|
Top 5 Toughest vs. TEs |
Receiving |
Fantasy |
||||
|
Team |
G |
Rec |
Yard |
TD |
Ftsy Pts Allowed |
Week 5 Opp |
| 28. Washington Redskins |
4 |
11 |
154 |
0 |
15.4 |
D. Rosario |
| 29. Philadelphia Eagles |
3 |
12 |
103 |
0 |
10.3 |
K. Winslow |
| 30. San Francisco 49ers |
4 |
11 |
102 |
0 |
10.2 |
T. Gonzalez |
| 31. Denver Broncos |
4 |
10 |
93 |
0 |
9.3 |
Watson/Baker |
| 32. Indianapolis Colts |
4 |
13 |
91 |
0 |
9.1 |
Crumpler/Scaife |
–Team to Team Match-ups to Exploit or Avoid–
Here I will look at some of this week’s mismatches. Net Points (NP) is points scored vs. points against through the first quarter of games.
For fantasy owners, this says it all.
|
Minnesota Vikings vs St. Louis Rams |
New York Giants vs. Oakland Raiders |
||||
|
MIN NP = 38 |
STL NP = -84 |
Advantage MIN: 122 Pts |
NYG NP = 43 |
OAK NP = -44 |
Advantage NYG: 87 Pts |
|
Indianapolis Colts vs. Tennessee Titans |
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
||||
|
IND NP = 44 |
TEN NP = -33 |
Advantage IND: 77 Pts |
PHI NP = 22 |
TBB NP = -53 |
Advantage PHI: 75 Pts |
To better stay on top of all the injuries, player updates and waiver wire adds, check out our Dominator Service.
For more Week 5 articles, here are some more link:
Week 5 QB Rankings
Week 5 Start Sit RBs
Week 5 Start Sit WRs
Week 5 Start Sit TEs
Week 5 Start Sit Team Defense
Week 5 Waiver Wire and Grid Iron Gambles
What I was listening to while I wrote this article. If you like Evanescence, these guys are even better:
Need some advice. I have some good RB depth on my roster HTH league and I need a stud WR to play with Mike Sims-Walker, as Fitzy and B. Marshall havent been really been great. Should I try and trade Steven Jackson for a stud WR being that his value is still up there and I have some good depth For RB. Maybe try and get a DeSean Jackson, type WR. Advice would be great
Steven Jackson, StL RB
Cedric Benson, Cin RB
Jerome Harrison, Cle RB
Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG RB
Mike Bell, NO RB
Larry Fitzgerald, Ari WR
Mike Sims-Walker, Jac WR
Brandon Marshall, Den WR
Hakeem Nicks, NYG WR
Brent Celek, PHI TE
LeSean McCoy, Phi RB
Actually I don't know that I'd make a trade. Steven Jackson is you're only sure fire RB. Benson has been good, but who knows if he can make that last. The rest are fillers. Fitz and Marshall will be fine. Don't press the panic button on a slow start. Fitz faces the Texans this week. If things don't start looking better after that, then maybe, but I think a slow start is all it is.
I would try and make a try for sure….you can stand to lose a RB ONLY if you get a solid WR to play week in and week out.
I would also wait to see what Rustyn has to say as well, he is very good at future trades and what they could yeild.
Hope this helps man.
I would try and make a trade for sure….you can stand to lose a RB ONLY if you get a solid WR to play week in and week out.
I would also wait to see what Rustyn has to say as well, he is very good at future trades and what they could yeild.
Hope this helps man.