Week 9 NFL Picks, Football Betting Advice
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Welcome comrades to my weekly NFL football picks column. My aim is to help you with some tough choices, whether it be in your office pool or betting against the spread. I will provide analysis and commentary for both.
~NFL football picks for the office pool~
My season prediction tally to date: 79-37
~Lock of the Week~
Green Bay at Tampa Bay- Tampa Bay rookie Josh Freeman will get his first start as an NFL QB. Not a good recipe for a win versus a Packers team fighting to stay in the thick of the playoff race.
Pick: Packers
Arizona at Chicago- Two 4-3 teams are always a tough call, but I give the edge to Arizona who usually play well after a loss and are surprisingly 3-0 on the road.
Pick: Cardinals
Kansas City at Jacksonville- I’ll take Maurice Jones-Drew’s team over a 1-6 Chiefs team now dealing with yet another Larry Johnson distraction.
Pick: Jaguars
Miami at New England- Miami is coming on strong but I can’t pick against a Belichick coached team coming off a bye playing at home.
Pick: Patriots
Washington at Atlanta- Atlanta is looking to rebound from a two game losing streak against a Redskins squad in disarray. Kind of a no brainer.
Pick: Falcons
Baltimore at Cincinnati- I’ll admit this one is very difficult to assess. Cincinnati is coming off a bye and is playing their best ball in years, and beat these Ravens just four weeks ago. Baltimore looked much better on defense against Denver though and I think they will even the score.
Pick: Ravens
Houston at Indianapolis- The Texans may finally be putting together a defense that can help support their strong offense. The Colts, however, are not the Bills.
Pick: Colts
~Upset Special~
Carolina at New Orleans- The Panthers’ victory over the Cardinals saved their season. They have their swagger back and want to be the first ones to knock off their division rivals.
Pick: Panthers
Detroit at Seattle- Seattle is not that great but the Lions can’t even beat the Rams.
Pick: Seahawks
San Diego at N.Y. Giants- I am not sure what is wrong with the Giants but you’d have to think they will not allow themselves to drop their fourth in a row.
Pick: Giants
Tennessee at San Francisco- The 49ers need a win after three straight losses and almost pulled off the upset versus the Colts.
Pick: 49ers
Dallas at Philadelphia- A divisional matchup for two teams tied for first in the NFC East. Home field advantage wins out in a toss-up.
Pick: Eagles
Monday Night Football tiebreaker
Pittsburgh at Denver- Apparently Denver struggles against teams that bring their A-game on defense. They hadn’t faced that scenario until the Ravens’ game and lost. The Steelers will make it two in a row.
Pick: Steelers, 24-17.
~against the spread picks~
This is where things get a little tricky. Veterans know that when you bet against the spread you aren’t simply picking the winner, you are also betting how close the loser will be on the scoreboard. When betting against the spread, if you choose the team that’s favored, they must win by more than the spread number in order for you to get credit for a correct pick. If you choose the underdog, they have to lose by less than the spread number in order for you to get credit.
Houston at Indianapolis (+9)- While I do think the Colts will win, this is a divisional game and Houston is playing well. In this scenario I am taking the Texans to keep the game closer than the Monday spread of 9 points.
Pick: Texans
Miami at New England (+10.5)- Similarly, the Patriots are my choice to win but I expect the Dolphins to come closer than the 10.5 betting spread
Pick: Dolphins
Green Bay at Tampa Bay (-9.5)- It would be an upset for Josh Freeman to waltz in his first NFL start and lead a bad team to a lot of points.
Pick: Packers
Arizona at Chicago (+3)- I am taking Arizona to win to go 4-0 on the road, partly because Jay Cutler couldn’t manage a TD pass versus the Browns of all teams.
Pick: Cardinals
Detroit at Seattle (+10)- I like Matt Hasselbeck to torch the Lions’ defense several times over in this one.
Pick: Seahawks
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Wow man you got the Panthers taking down the Saints.. that wouldn't be an Upset.. that would be a miracle, if you're a Panthers fan
ANIT HAPPEN!! GO SAINTS =)
Wasn't Green bay the EXACT opposite against the spread last year? Man this is a long year for us Packers' fans.
And if it does happen?
Haha Top, I know it is not possible for you to agree with any pick going against your Saints…But what do the Panthers have to lose? Now that they are not expected to win, I want to see them shut DeAngelo and Stewart down completely. The secondary for Carolina was looking sharp last game. Just sayin…no guarantees of anything in this crazy league
Ray, I still think the Pack can make the playoffs. They have to play better of course, but if they can protect Rodgers a little better he can post 350 yds and 3 TDs every game.
Definitely, the pass protection is a must BUT Rodgers has GOT to stop holding onto the ball and learn to get rid of it quicker; even with great pass protection, holding onto the ball as long as he does never boads well.
WHO DAT!!!!! Man you think that bayou boy can pull it together for panthers against the saints. Your crazy , d.sharper and that D is gonna have a feild day. Wait did you forget who we have running that offense. Well if you did his name is drew brees #9 from purdue and he leads the # 1 offense in the league. We have to many weapons and my boy drew is gonna have a career day. Like coach Paton said “our best has yet to come”. It will be no contest. Saints we be 8-0. WHO DAT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Man, I remember watching Bress all four years at Purdue. But I really do believe the Panthers have a shot.
Put it to you this way—did you think- for a second- the titans were gonna beat the Jags….let alone the way they did?
Actually yes Ray, I picked the Titans to win that one:
http://undrafteds.com/2009/10/29/the-chosen-nfl-w...
Just keep this in mind Austin, nobody gave the Cardinals a chance to beat the Giants either (well except for me
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/276266-why-the...
Is that really two plugs in one comment? Is that illegal?
So…wait…do I get the assist lol? Do I want the assist
mos def
damn I though I was a coonass WHO DAT said they gonna beat them Saints!! WHO DAT!!
The Panthers have a TOP secondary which will give the Saints a little trouble.. Ellis is out and I'm not sure about Fujita but man Turner did a number to us.. so will Smash and Dash or Salt and Pepper what ever they call themselves.
You say car has a TOP secondary . We have faced two of top over all d’s in the league this yr and we put up almost 50 pts in both games. So I don’t think there db’s will be to much trouble. Also Ellis and Scott didn’t practice today but I think might be able to go on Sunday. WHODAT!!!!!!!!!
One thing is for certain: I AM crazy