2011 Fantasy Baseball: Outfielder Rankings

Now that we've made our way around the base paths it's time to head to the outfield and enjoy the depth of this year's crop of power and speed.  When looking at the C, 1B, 2B, SS and 3B positions one trend seemed clear, the majority of fantasy experts had all the usual suspects at the #1 positions. However, with the outfield, no one can agree on who 2011's best OF should be...at least for fantasy purposes.

In combing over more than a dozen rankings from other sites, two names garnered the most first place votes; Ryan Braun and Carl Crawford. Both are dynamic and fairly consistent players, and I wouldn't fault anyone for snapping either up first. Yet, neither is the first guy on our list. That honor goes to...

1. Carlos Gonzalez, COL ~ The Rockies center fielder took his first full season for the Blake Street Bombers, and turned it into what might be a career year for most guys. He was second only to the fluke season of Jose Bautista in homeruns among OF's, first in runs, second in RBI's, tied for first in total bases (again with Bautista) and fourth in batting average and slugging percentage. And if you buy into the whole "27-years-old" philosophy, well he won't even get their till play-off time, so one can hope the best is yet to come. CarGo is a legit 5-tool player, and while his average may drop a bit from last year's .336, I wouldn't expect any slump for the guy. He's for real, and of course he plays half his games at Coors Field, which never hurts.

2. Carl Crawford, BOS ~  First let's acknowledge that Crawford could quite easily be #1, and on ranking alone probably would be. He falls second only because I feel he and Gonzalez will be equally strong in 2011, and CarGo can be had a round later, freeing up your first round pick for a quality infielder, or even Carl if you want a perfect OF 1-2 punch. Carl had an exceptional 2010, and a move to Fenway Park in Boston is likely to improve his numbers, or at least maintain their fantasy consistency. He may very well end up as 2011's top fantasy outfielder with a boost in his new digs. However, I have just enough concern about the impact of a team shift, that I'm putting him at #2 instead of first in our rankings. Like CarGo, he is a 5-tool player, and his real bonus is in the speed department where he averages over 45 stolen bases each season.
3. Josh Hamilton, TEX ~ Can you imagine if this guy could just stay healthy for a full season? He put up Ryan Braun type numbers while missing about 50 games. He's a risk pick, but even if he once again misses a quarter of the season, he'll still net you top 5 numbers.
4. Ryan Braun, MIL ~ Some have stated that Braun's numbers were a bit low last season, but historically they were simply a bit high in 2009. I believe his 2010 stats are more reflective of how he'll usually do. And those are some damn fine numbers, but not worthy of a #1 OF pick as so many have ranked him.
5. Matt Holliday, STL ~ His numbers are very similar to Braun's, and he'll be picked a round later. You won't get a ton of speed, but he might put up 10 bags for you. He should also be good for about 100 runs and RBI's and 25 to 30 taters.
6. Matt Kemp, LAD ~ No sooner did Kemp give fantasy owners the 5-tool warm and fuzzies, then his batting average and stolen bases plummeted in 2010. His peripheral numbers, runs and rbi's, weren't awful, but they dipped as well. The question is which season do you have more faith in?
7. Nelson Cruz, TEX ~ Last year our own Ray Tannock called Cruz a guy who would put up 1st Round numbers. And he was almost correct. Like his ever fragile partner-in-crime above (Hamilton), Cruz is a monster...when he's healthy. He's never been healthy for a whole season. So buying him here is a big risk, but sooner or later he's gotta get a full season in...right?
8. Shin-Soo Choo, CLE ~ What a great name. Choo's 2009 and 2010 numbers are almost identical, so grabbing him you can almost write in 85 rbis and runs, a .300 batting average, 20 dingers and 20 stolen bases. He's about as safe as it gets.
9. Hunter Pence, HOU ~ There's probably nobody ranking this guy higher than me. He's hit 25 home runs three straight seasons, and his batting average has been an identical .282 the last 2 years on a .287 career average. In 2010 the 27-year-old saw his runs and stolen bases increase a bit, and even if he simply remains the same he deserves this spot, but I think he'll keep progressing.
10. Andrew McCutchen, PIT ~ In his second season, A-Mac was a model of consistency from his rookie season. His average remained at .286 and his production increased across the board with his increase in playing time. There's room for improvement in 2011 and no reason to believe he'll regress. He's a 4-tool player at this point, because there aren't a lot of RBI opportunities in Pittsburgh.
11. Jayson Werth, WAS ~ Just how much is Jayson worth in 2011? He made a name for himself over the last 3 seasons playing on a potent Phillies team. However, 2011 finds him playing for the Nationals. That's gotta hurt a bit.
12. Andre Ethier, LAD ~ Ethier put up reasonable numbers last season despite missing 40 games due to a fractured finger he received in May.  Expect the slugger to pick up where he left off in 2009 and 2010, pre-injury.

13. Jay Bruce, CIN ~ He was Ryan Braun-lite last season, matching the slugger with 25 HRs but about 10-20% off the mark everywhere else. I believe he will close that gap this season. He may not match Braun, but he could..and at the very least he'll get damn close. Not bad for a guy getting drafted some 80 picks later.

14. Jason Heyward, ATL ~ Heyward got his career off to a fine start in his rookie season. He put up numbers similar too or better than Justin Upton, but he has far more upside going forward.
15. Ichiro Suzuki, SEA ~ He has no one around to support his talent, so his run and RBI totals have dropped, but he's still a career .331 hitter who can swipe 40 bags for you.
16. Alexis Rios, CHW ~ Rios is getting the fantasy cold shoulder from many "experts" this year, though I don't see why. In 2010 he put up a 20/30 season with almost 90 runs and RBIs, plus a .284 average.
17. Justin Upton, ARI ~ A lot of rankings have this kid higher than this, but a potential 20/20 guy with moderate peripherals just doesn't get me all excited.
18. Drew Stubbs, CIN ~ What's all the hub-bub on Stubbs? In his first full season, Stubbs put up numbers similar to what I expect from Jose Bautista this season. In 2011 he could begin to move into the elite stratosphere. And the same can be said for the next guy on this list...
19. Michael Stanton, FLA ~ The rookie mashed 22 long balls in his first 359 at-bats. That's like 1 every 4th or 5th game. The kid's 21. He'll get a full season in 2011. Here fishy, fishy.
20. Delmon Young, MIN ~ This guy scares me. We've waited so long with great expectations from this kid, when he finally delivered last season, it left us (or at least me) feeling gun shy about his ability to repeat. If he does, this ranking is 1o slots too low.
21. Shane Victorino, PHI ~ Vicci was a touch off his mark last season, but I expect a return to his normal performance in 2011.
22. Chris Young, ARI ~ He's going to put up numbers similar to what I expect out of Jose Bautista this year...about 7 rounds later. Oh, and he enters the season at that magical age of 27. Hmmm.
23. Jose Bautista, TOR ~ I guess if I think the guy above will equal or best him, I have to put Jose here. Blech. I'm not a believer nor a fan. I have good reason to believe he'll plummet big time in 2011. Draft with care...if at all.
24. Jacoby Ellsbury, BOS ~ Be kind, rewind...to 2009. The guy stole 70 bases and hit .301 in 2009. Rib problems limited him to a mere 18 games in 2010. He should be back with 50+ SBs and close to 100 runs in 2011.

25. Carlos Lee, HOU ~ Perhaps I have a cracked cranium, but despite hitting a career worst .246 last season, old man Lee still tied for 14th in RBIs with 89, and still managed 24 homers. While he may be nearing the end of his career, I see him getting back closer to the .300 average we're used to, with 25 HRs and between 80-90 RBIs. Others may have written him off, but he's still got legs.

26. Corey Hart, MIL ~ An impressive 31 HRs in 2010 with over 100 RBIs and close to 100 runs. I can see another 25 HR season, with double digit steals.
27. BJ Upton, TB ~ Can you say 20/40 season?
28. Colby Rasmus, STL ~ The one thing you want to see from a young player is progression, and Rasmus gave us just that in 2010. Look forward to more in 2011.
29. Nick Swisher, NYY ~ A 4-tool guy on on an elite team. No speed but I'll take 25-30 HRs with 90 runs and RBIs.
30. Carlos Beltran, NYM ~ Beltran's had an awful 2 season nightmare due to nagging knee issues. He should be back and healthy in 2011, in a contract year no less. He's lost a step, but he's still got fantasy ooomph when healthy.
31. Juan Pierre, CHW ~ The career .298 hitter had 68 stolen bags last season and 96 runs. He also struck out less than 50 times.
32. Nick Markakis, BAL ~ The arrival of new DH Vlad Guerrero should help Markakis.
33. Brett Gardner, NYY ~ Ichiro-lite, 30 point lower batting average, but all all the stolen bases and runs, and he's 100 years younger. The batting average could improve.
34. Ben Zobrist, TB ~ 2010 was a season to forget for Ben-Z, so I'll look back to 2009 and forward to 2011.
35. Austin Jackson, DET ~ In his rookie season he notched 103 runs, with 27 SBs and a .293 average. No power yet, but he should continue to be a solid bet.
36. Angel Pagan, NYM ~ Had 37 steals and a .290 average in his first season as an every day player.
37. Adam Jones, BAL ~ Jones hit 19 HRs in each of his last 2 seasons. He's still young and coming into his own.
38. Vernon Wells, ANA ~ He hit 31 bombs last season, and now he's on a new team in a new ballpark. The once vaunted fantasy stud is now getting a bit long in the tooth. He'll likely go sooner than he should based on last years HR #'s and his name.
39. Rajai Davis, TOR ~ The career .281 hitter takes Vernon Wells spot in the Blue Jays line-up. He will still a ton of bases. Bank on it.
40. Grady Sizemore, CLE ~ He's at camp, but will we ever see the return of a healthy Sizemore. This is a high risk, high reward gamble.
41. Curtis Granderson, NYY ~ After a great career start he's become mediocre in fantasy. Still he plays for the Yankees, so opportunities abound.
42. Bobby Abreu, ANA ~ So he's 100-years-old and now relegated to DH duties, he'll still get you a 20/20 season with 80+ runs and RBIs to go with a .290 average.
43. Vlad Guerrero, BAL ~ He's a DH now but he should still qualify at OF. He had a resurgence in 2010, and if he comes close to that again, he's going to make some fantasy GM very happy.
44. Jose Tabata, PIT ~ He hit .299 in his first 100 games. This season he is the team's regular left fielder. I predict 80+ runs and RBIs with 20+ stolen bases and a .289 average. The power isn't there yet though, and may never be.
45. Jason Bay, NYM ~ Could be a serious steal if he rebounds and finds his 2009 form.
46. Torii Hunter, ANA ~ He just keeps on truckin'
47. Andres Torres, SF ~ He's been floating around the majors for a few years, but 2010 marked his first full season and he made it count with 84 runs, 16 HRs and 26 SB's. He seems a bit late to be blossoming, but he could repeat 2010.
48. Bobby Abreu, ANA ~ So he's 100-years-old and now relegated to DH duties, he'll still get you a 20/20 season with 80+ runs and RBIs to go with a .290 average.
49. Denard Span, MIN ~ 90 runs, 60 RBI, 25 SBs and a .280 average are what you can expect from this soon-to-be 27-year-old.
50. Peter Bourjos, ANA ~ If gets the starting gig as expected, look for a 20/20 season from this kid.
51. Carlos Quentin, CHW ~ How much are you willing to pay for 20-25 HRs and a .250 batting average?
52. Raul Ibanez, PHI ~ Mr. consistency took a fantasy hit last season. He is older than dirt in baseball years, but even in a down year he managed decent numbers. If he gets back on track he's a huge steal, if he is tailing off, he still won't hurt you this late.
53. Jason Kubel, MIN ~ Look for a >270 average with 90+ RBI and 20+ HRs.
54. Michael Cuddyer, MIN ~ Quietly proficient.
55. David DeJesus, OAK ~ Look for a 20/20 season with a near .290 average in his first year in Oaktown.
56. Michael Bourn, HOU ~ Born to run is his theme song, and 80+ runs and around 45-50 stolen bags is all you'll get.
57. Manny Ramirez, TB ~ He's nearly 40 and playing with a huge chip on his shoulder. Don't write the former stud off just yet.
58. Magglio Ordonez, DET ~ Expect a .300 season with 20 home runs.
59. Raul Ibanez, PHI ~ Mr. consistency took a fantasy hit last season. He is older than dirt in baseball years, but even in a down year he managed decent numbers. If he gets back on track he's a huge steal, if he is tailing off, he still won't hurt you this late.
60. Travis Snider, TOR ~ With a full time gig, Snider could impress.
61. Ryan Raburn, DET ~ He closed out 2010 in huge fashion, hitting .308 in August and .358 down the stretch, with 13 HR's in that span.
62. Michael Brantley, CLE ~ The young speedster finally got his every day chance in August and hit a solid .290 down the stretch. He also swiped 8 bags in 9 attempts...

63. Domonic Brown, PHI ~ I'm very high on this kid, and I think before the season is over he'll make some noise, but right now he's waiting in the wings and not on the field.

64. David Murphy, TEX ~ The potential is there but so far he's without an every day gig. Then again with the fragile Nelson Cruz and Josh Hamilton, he's still like to eek out 130 games, but a 10/10 season isn't that exciting.
65. Desmond Jennings, TB ~ All promise and potential but no starting job.
66. Scott Podsednik, TOR ~ Pods signed with the Blue Jays, but he has no regular gig. Still in 98 starts for KC last year he swiped 30 bags with a .310 average. Just sayin'
67. Franklin Gutierrez, SEA ~ Nothing exciting her, but he could swipe 20+ bags.
68. Tyler Colvin, CHC ~ If he can nudge Byrd or Fukudome out of the way, this kids got power to spare.
69. Coco Crisp, OAK ~ 30 stolen bases.
70. Josh Willingham, OAK ~ Has starting job in Oakland. Has ability.
71. Alfonso Soriano, CHC ~ The speed is gone and the average has become a travesty, but he can still wallop 20+ dingers.
72. Dexter Fowler, COL ~ Young and raw, but big potential.
73. Will Venable, SD ~ 29 SB's in 2010, but nothing else...yet.
74. Logan Morrison, FLA ~ Look for 15+ HRs and around a .280 average in his first full season.
75. Nyjer Morgan, WAS ~ All speed and nothing else.