One of our members (Starkly, his 2nd year) posted the question below in our forum. It's such a common question, I wanted to share it with our readers. We offer year round forum support as well as customized cheat sheets, a player tracker and game day waiver wire notifications for all subscribers to our Dominator Package.
Starkly is in a 12 team league with the following settings: (they can start 2 QB) 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 1OP Flex, K, D/ST, Bench six. Passing - 25 yds=1, 5 Completions=1, TD=4, 40+ yd TD bonus =4, 50+ yard TD bonus=5, (INT)-2, 2pt=2, 300+ yd game=3, 400+ yd=5. Rushing - 10 yds=1, TD=6, 40+ yd TD bonus=2, 50+ yd TD bonus=5, 2pt Conversion=2, 100 yd game=5, 200+ yard game=10, Receiving - 10 yards =1, Each reception=1, TD Reception=6, 40+ yard TD rec bonus=2, 50+ yard TD rec bonus=5, 2pt Receiving Conversion 2, 100-199 yard receiving game (REY100)=5 200+ yard receiving game (REY200)
"The Original Post"
As the title says I have the first pick in a 12 team league. We also have a couple of new scoring rules which are friendly to QB's who have 300+ & 400+ games. Plus our Flex allows any OP so last year I mostly had a QB in that spot which allowed fielding two QB's most weeks.
As I ran through my first draft pick position options for this year- using our leagues past draft history as a guide….
My first three picks, #'s 1, 24, & 25, scenarios shaped up like this
RB/QB/WR – RB-Rice/QB-Romo or Rivers/WR-Jennings,
Then I looked at QB/RB/WR – QB-Rodgers/RB-Forte or Charles/WR-Jennings,
Then RB/QB/RB – RB-Rice/QB-Romo/RB-Forte or Charles.
Then it came to me to try QB-Rodgers/ QB-Romo or Rivers/ RB-Forte, or Charles.
This gives me the #1 QB, plus a top 6-8 QB, both can be active every week other than byes. And a top 10-12 RB. It's not Rice but ya can't have it all.
What think ye?
Tom Brady will surpass 600 pass attempts this year... Brees however will have the most completions because he loves to dump off to his running backs.
Why did I highlight this? Because you get 1 point per 5 completions.. this is a pretty big factor. Let's look at the previous years completions for the top quarterbacks, in terms of attempts and completions. This is sorted by attempts...
|Matthew Stafford, QB||663||421|
|Drew Brees, QB||657||468|
|Tom Brady, QB||611||401|
|Eli Manning, QB||589||359|
|Matt Ryan, QB||566||347|
|Tony Romo, QB||522||346|
|Ben Roethlisberger, QB||513||324|
|Aaron Rodgers, QB||502||343|
|Peyton Manning, QB||679||450|
|Drew Brees, QB||658||448|
|Matt Schaub, QB||574||365|
|Matt Ryan, QB||571||357|
|Philip Rivers, QB||541||357|
|Tom Brady, QB||492||324|
|Joe Flacco, QB||489||306|
|Aaron Rodgers, QB||475||312|
2009 Romo 550 and 347 - since 2010 can't be used.
Notice how Drew consistently puts up enormous completions. over 100 more than Rodgers each year, that's 20 more fantasy points than Rodgers. But he does have the rushing yards so...
New Orleans is also projected to have the 2nd easiest SOS for QB, behind Atlanta. Dallas has the 7th hardest and GB with the 22nd hardest. The Pats are looking at the 3rd hardest.
With that said, based on your league settings I'd think about going:
QB (Rodgers or Brady, Brady if you think he's going to have a huge year), then RB
RB (Rice) and pray you get Stafford at pick 24. Stafford will be chunking the ball like a mad man this year, hell he did in 2011. If you miss on Stafford then grab the best available RB/WR (or Graham TE) at pick 24 and 25. I doubt you have another top tier QB available here. Using our cheat sheets you'll be able to see where the value is in the various rounds.
In the 4th and 5th you should be able to go RB/WR UNLESS the QB's are thinning out, which I assume they will due to the flex being available for QB. If that's the case you may want to consider Matt Ryan over Romo. Romo's ADP is higher but Ryan is primed for a break out year with more dump off passes to his RB and Julio Jones killing DB's.They will try and mimic New Orleans, bank on it, they don't have a choice.
Breaking in the 6th and 7th you may consider an elite defense and if TE has thinned (and you didn't draft Graham) grab Pettigrew (I like a lot more than Tamme) or Tamme, I doubt they make it back to you 24 picks later. Also note Kyle Rudolph whom I'm very high on this year as a break out TE sleeper AND can be drafted VERY VERY LATE, J. Cook in Tenn. too about round 11 or 12.
WITH ALL THAT SAID
You really can't look past round 3, so many variables in the draft, runs will kill you because you have the 1st pick. So I'd only plan for your first three picks. You need to do several MOCK DRAFTS ON ESPN and see how it unfolds.
One thing for sure, your league is going to suck QB dry, fast. I'd draft a QB first because I doubt a strong option comes back to you at picks 24 and 25. Then look for some sleeper QB later in the draft, like Josh Freeman whom is set up to have a really nice season or even better Matt Ryan whom I predict you'd have to draft in the 4th or 5th, due to your league settings. The person who drafts 2 quality QB's is going to have a great season, with a little luck at RB and WR in the later rounds.
Good luck and welcome back!
I hope this help some of you picking 1st in your draft. If you have our customized cheat sheets it helps tremendously when preparing for your draft. The customized cheat sheet plus our forum support will ensure you Dominate your league. - Sign up Here!