It’s been a little under a full week now since the return of Carlos Beltran, and while many of you have already made a decision to either start or sit him, there are still some of you out there wondering what to do.
Through the rest of this week, Beltran has—at first glance—some golden opportunities to provide fantasy managers with a good number of points—well hold your horses—things aren’t always what they seem.
Let’s take a quick look at what Beltran could wind up doing this week.
Caveat: Understanding that this is Major League Baseball, and pitchers are subject to change, we will go with the next six projected starters Beltran and the Mets will face.
| Tues 7/20 :RHP Barry Enright / ARI— 1-2, 3.45 ERA. Enright is not overpowering, but shows great command and doesn’t walk many batters. He’s as deceptive as he is patient. |
| Wend 7/21: RHP Dan Haren / ARI—7-8, 4.60 ERA. Haren has been on a slide as of late dropping two out of his last three, but has had success against Beltran in the past. Beltran has a lifetime BA of .214. |
| Thurs 7/22: RHP Hiroki Kuroda / LAD—7-8, 3.74 ERA. Kuroda has also been in a slump losing all three of his last three starts. In addition, Beltran has a lifetime BA of .500 against the righty. |
| Fri 7/23: RHP Vincente Padilla / LAD—4-2, 3.65 ERA. Padilla has been on fire as of late specifically winning two out of his last three. Over his last ten starts he is sporting a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. Beltran, on the other hand, is .125 lifetime against Padilla. |
| Sat 7/24: RHP James McDonald / LAD— 0-1, 7.20 ERA. The Giants roughed the kid up pretty good in his debute. |
| Sun 7/25: LHP Clayton Kershaw / LAD—9-5, 3.16 ERA. Kershaw has been dominating as of late (except for a bump in the road against the Cardinals) and can give plenty of trouble. Beltran has only faced him once hitting a SAC fly driving in a run. |
When we take a quick glance at the chart above, there is very little historical success against any of these pitchers minus Vincente Padilla AND James McDonald's rookie status, signaling that Beltran is in line to deal with more struggles than success.
In addition to Beltran’s aforementioned track record, the Mets as a team have a terrible 19-28road record , and both matchups against the D-Backs and Dodgers are on the road.
Another little idiosyncrasy is the Mets deciding to sit Beltran on Sunday; a day’s rest after only playing three which indicates the Mets, and Beltran, could be taking things slow.
His only saving grace here is that he is hitting .286 against righties, and triples his numbers historically in nearly every category against right handed pitchers.
In the end, the precautionary approach the Mets are displaying with Beltran, the track record against the next six pitchers Beltran has, and the Mets overall road record all point to keeping Beltran on the bench until they (Mets) come back home for a six game home stand against the Cardinals and D-backs again.
If you own Beltran and have been getting along just fine up until now, consider keeping him on the bench a little while longer.
