I really debated what I wanted my last article the 2019 draft season to be and what would help you the most with your upcoming draft. If I should talk about players you should avoid, or what the preseason has shown me. If I should just update rankings. After a lot of thought, I have come to the realization that I can combine them all into one with this bold prediction article.
Nick Chubb Will Finish as a Top 5 Running Back
I'm going to surprise a lot of people and say you should be taking Nick Chubb in the first round. Don't try to wait to steal him in the second, take him behind only Barkley and Kamara. He is my third rated running back for the 2019 season. With Johnson gone and Hunt suspended until week 10, I want the Browns centerpiece and I will pay for him.
Christian McCaffrey Will Not Be a Top 6 Running Back
CMC was the fantasy hero for many last year, myself included. Grabbing him in the second round, likely meant you made it at least to the playoffs. For this reason, many are drafting him top 3 this season when they shouldn't be. Last season everything fell perfectly into place for CMC. Stewart was released, Cam was coming off of injury and McCaffrey became the focal point. This season, it's different. Both Holyfield and Scarlett are viable options in the backfield and the coach has come out and said he wants less goal-line work and fewer snaps for our little hero. Cam Newton is healthy and expected to run it himself more often as well as be able to throw more effectively.
Derrius Guice's 5th Round ADP is a Steal
Guice before last night was going in the 7th round in the average PPR draft. Insanity. This is a prospect who many respected individuals thought was a better pure runner than Barkley. With a coach who showed he isn't afraid to win ugly games on the shoulders of the defense and running back, this is a prime spot. AP is old and should be more insurance than anything, and Chris Thompson is better in a satellite role where Gruden has said before he would like to keep him.
Jordan Reed and Jimmy Graham are Viable Ttight End Options
Reed and Graham are both routinely falling into the 12th-14th range. Tight end is historically a dead zone with only 2-3 good options and then everything else a mess. Lase season Grahams numbers were perfectly on par with Austin Hooper. One is being drafted in the 8th as a sleeper, the other is being totally disrespected. Reed seems to always be injured. He is concussed currently. That just keeps his price low. Haskins has shown a real love for the tight end position and I'm sure it will be his job soon. My favorite draft strategy at the position this year is to double up and take both Reed and Graham late.
Allen Robinson is a WR1
Allen Robinson was super hyped last year. He didn't produce and has been thrown in the trash bin. What many casual fans forget is that often enough free-agent receivers need a full season to really get a system and gain chemistry with the quarterback. In the last two games of the season that Robinson played in, he had an average of 8 catches for 110 yards and a touchdown per game. Robinson was brought in on a huge contract and is the man in Chicago. Being able to get a big-time WR1 in the 5th and 6th round is criminal. You can throw in Trey Burton here on a side note as well with the same thought process.
Dare Ogunbowale is this year's Phillip Lindsay
A lot of you are probably wondering who this is and why he is on my list. I wouldn't blame you because no one really knows who he is. This should be the last pick in every single draft that you take part of for the rest of the season. Right now people are buying Peyton Barber, not me. Barber is a replacement-level player who busted last season. Ronald Jones is a draft bust who just doesn't look like he has it. Whatever it is. Dare is a phenomenal receiver out of the backfield with good field vision. He's been a regular star this preseason and earned himself a few reps with the ones in practice this week. The best part about him is that he's basically free in drafts currently.
Kirk Cousins Finishes as a Top 10 Quarterback:
Cousins has always had good stats even when his teams failed. Regularly throwing for 300-yard games to relieve himself of the blame for his team's failures. This season both of his starting receivers are being drafted within the top 6 rounds. How is it the fantasy community expects 2 top 20 finishes for these guys if the quarterback is supposed to finish 20th? With Diggs, Thielen, Rudolph, and Cook at his disposal and an upgraded offensive line, I expect Cousins to pick up right where he left off in 2017 as a stat-stuffing, choke artist. Take him late, then set him and forget about it.
Baker Mayfield Will Bust
Captain Baker is a great quarterback. I'm a big fan and a huge believer. I am down on him because he isn't a high ceiling fantasy quarterback. He isn't in a system where he is going to throw 500 times or run 10 times a game. This is an offense built around Chubb and the defense. Built on creating efficient drives, and limiting turnovers. While adding Odell to the mix is exciting, I'm not positive it really increases Bakers ceiling. Drafting a low ceiling quarterback early in drafts is a bad idea and a sure way to lose your leagues.
I made this list because I want to help you. I want you to win your leagues and get to experience that joy. I've found that being bold and going against the grain is the best way to ensure that you hold the trophy at the end of the season. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @HessDFS to stay up to date on all of my content and send me all your questions!