Someone with a name as big as Jason Bay's can hardly be considered a sleeper. Perhaps bounce back candidate is the better term. I mean, do we really believe Bay's disintegration last season is a long term issue?
The fact is Bay has both comeback and sleeper potential. If he had played last season in Boston they'd have blamed his collapse on a slow start, fluke and a season ended early when he suffered a concussion at Dodger Stadium.However, pessimists, or realists (if you prefer) would point to the impact of playing at Citi Field's spacious confines as the long term reason for his previous and future decline.
Citi Field certainly doesn't offer the same short porch that Bay took advantage of in Fenway Park. Still, fantasy GMs and "experts" seem to have more faith in a return to fantasy prominence for Grady Sizemore than Bay Bay is currently being drafted with the likes of supposed fantasy write offs Magglio Ordonez and Manny Ramirez.
In truth, Citi Field will likely temper Bay's power numbers, but 20-25 dingers is not unrealistic. He should be healthy this season, and we should all remember that injuries and poor play decimated the entire Mets line-up in 2010. As the team regroups, this will also help Bay's numbers.
While it's not likely Bay will ever replicate his 2009 fantasy season, he can certainly get more in line with his career production, and 100 runs and RBIs is certainly obtainable, though I'll stick with a more conservative estimate below.
My Projected Stats for Bay's 2011 Season: