For several weeks now I've been publishing the defense versus receiver type heat map. Much like a CB vs WR chart but with a larger representation. The heat map covers RB, TE, WR as the "receivers" and tries to paint a picture for the the WR2/3 production expectations. The goal is to highlight where an offensive may attack a defense based on past results. For those of you following along thanks for the emails but feel free to use the comment section below. Crowd based interactions could lead to some even better heat maps! As requested, I've included some extra stats to try and find the teams that give up big plays.
Big Play Upside
The last three columns try to highlight the defenses that are giving up the most big plays. Starting with "RecBP/G" which is simply all plays over 20 yards plus all plays over 40 yards divided by the number of games played. The next column is big plays per game times touch downs per game. The next column is the average number of receptions per game. And finally I stir them all up into the final column, total upside. I've done it multiple ways but I'm open to ideas guys. No matter how I stir the numbers, the "strongest" match ups always end up green.
Match Ups I Like In Week 10
- Arizona, Larry and David with a sprinkle of JJ.
- In PPR leagues I like Landry and Ajayi.
- Looks like NYG will be soft with volume in the middle versus CIN. Looks like we're all going to dial up Tyler Eifert this week.
- Ertz is another good option at TE as I'm sure Philly will have to are it out versus Atlanta.
Based on my sack & pass protection ratings I also like:
- Quarterback: Dak and maybe Eli if you're desperate.
- Wide Receiver from NYG, BAL, HOU, CHI and NYJ because quarterbacks on these teams should have more time to pass and therefore the receivers could benefit. Not a sexy list but great for finding low ownership receivers. Wallace, Smith Sr. are obvious picks for BAL. Alshon Jeffery could have his best game of the season this week, he owes the Bears. Use the heat map below to find some more hidden gems.
