Don’t Be In A Rush To Draft Your Running Backs

If you began playing fantasy football anywhere from three seasons ago, to as far back as the 90’s, at some point you almost assuredly subscribed to the strategy of selecting RBs with each of your first two draft picks. Some owners even used three of their first four picks to quickly build their stable of backs, and not only was this approach accepted, but it was recommended by many fantasy experts. Quarterbacks were often the next priority, with numerous owners selecting their first Wide Receiver in the fourth or fifth round, under the philosophy that a sufficient number of productive wideouts would still be available.

But fast forward to now, and that practice of securing your entire backfield before drafting a WR could easily prohibit your team from competing for its league championship. In the past few seasons, a valid argument can increasingly be made, that a roster consisting of an elite WR taken in round one or round two has a better chance to win a title than one that does not. In fact, a logical case can be made that if your first two WRs, and your QB are chosen by the end of round three, your roster will be among the most formidable in your league, and possibly its most powerful team. All providing that you smartly cultivate the other necessary positions during the selection process.

Yes… I just suggested that you can now safely consider waiting until the fourth round to select your first RB. It is an approach that I would have laughed at as recently as two years ago. However, I watched this strategy result in a league championship last season, and given the overwhelming evidence that league statistics provide, it is actually a sensible strategy.

This does not apply if you find yourself with one of the top three picks in your next draft. If that is the case, you should definitely seize Arian Foster, Ray Rice or LeSean McCoy. But the majority of you will make your initial selection after those elite runners have been chosen, and your roster could easily be stronger by grabbing your signal caller and several wideouts, before you initiate the process of stockpiling backs.

There are multiple factors that have combined to provide convincing evidence that elite WRs and QBs can be secured as your initial building blocks for a championship roster.

The League Has Systematically Eliminated The Feature Back

You are already aware that the majority of teams now utilize the running back by committee system (RBBC) that elicits terror and scorn from nearly all fantasy owners. As a result, there are fewer backs rushing for 1,200+ yards, and significantly less that accrue a high number of carries, then was the case for many years.

I collected some statistics that quantify these changes, and magnify why owners should eschew RBs early in their drafts, and focus instead on top tier WRs and QBs. In 2000, there were 21 running backs that exceeded 1,000 yards rushing. 18 had at least 250 carries, with several others just below that threshold. Nine had over 300 carries, and three had at least 350. Five years later, there were four backs that exceeded 350 attempts, which was the third consecutive year that number was attained. Plus, 10 RBs were consistently logging 300+.

However, a noticeable transformation has taken place. For the past two years, no backs were even allotted 350 carries. And last season, Maurice Jones-Drew and Michael Turner were the only runners to surpass 300 (Turner barely did so with 301).

This is further verification that the years of the workhorse RB have given way to the system that saves wear and tear on rushers, but creates excruciating pain for fantasy owners. By my estimation, there are seven teams that utilize a genuine feature back, absent of any regular substitution pattern that requires him to sit out. The Bears and 49ers recently departed this dwindling list, due to the signings of Michael Bush, and Brandon Jacobs.

Many Questions Abound For RBs Beyond The Top Three

You can certainly draft a RB with an early selection, even though you did not have the opportunity to snatch Foster, Rice or McCoy. But there is risk with every back that comprises the adjoining tiers. MJD has recorded 954 carries in the past three years alone. Matt Forte will be returning from his knee injury, just in time to split touches with Bush. Marshawn Lynch’s exhaustive role with Seattle will continue, but his career YPC is just 4.0, and he might not maintain his previous level of aggressiveness, as a result of his $31 million contract. Adrian Peterson has relinquished his customary slot in round one, as he recovers from late December surgery on his left knee. Turner has averaged 297 carries during his four seasons with the Falcons, and is a strong candidate for diminished production.

Frank Gore and Steven Jackson will both be 29 when the season begins, and Gore has logged 1,526 carries over the past six seasons, while Jackson has been allotted 2,004 attempts since 2005. Darren McFadden’s propensity for injury is unparalleled, as he has missed 19 games in four seasons. Jamaal Charles is returning from a torn ACL. Ryan Mathews has managed just 380 carries in two seasons, and remains unproven as an every week No. 1. And you are assuming sizable risk by choosing Chris Johnson, whose 2011 yardage total was nearly 500 yards below his average from the previous three years (1,533), and was only the league’s 14^th highest.

Running Backs 2000-2011

Elite Wide Receivers Are Essential, And Will Quickly Become Unavailable In Your Drafts

You don’t want to spend your season scrambling to compete for points at the WR position. But if you fail to garner at least one (and preferably two) highly productive wideouts early in your draft, you will be destined to expend considerable time and energy throughout the regular season, frantically examining the waiver wire, and analyzing trade prospects. None of which will supply you with sufficient relief.

However, if you secure several elite receivers, the percentages are high that you will win most matchups at this position during the season. For the purposes of this article, elite WRs will be defined as those who have exceeded 1,200 receiving yards, garnered at least 90 receptions, and scored at least nine TDs in multiple seasons.

Even though it is well documented that passing statistics continue to soar, that does not mean that the number of elite receivers is expanding. RBs and TEs are collecting many of the receptions, as are WRs that you really don’t want on your rosters. The select group of WRs that will be most beneficial, will not be available to you for very long during your drafts. Which is why you should strongly consider an early investment on these highly targeted, extremely productive wideouts. Otherwise, some of your competitors will snatch them from you, and subsequently pile up points that could have been yours during the year.

So who should you target?  Calvin Johnson is proven fantasy gold as a choice late in round one. Larry Fitzgerald, Wes Welker, Greg Jennings, and Hakeem Nicks are viable round two options. While Mike Wallace, A.J. Green, Roddy White, and Andre Johnson can all be selected in round three. If you are satisfied that one very productive year is sufficient for inclusion among the top two tiers, then Victor Cruz and Jordy Nelson can also be selected.

For those of you who will examine the statistics provided below, it should be noted that even though the number of WRs who have attained 10+ TDs has fluctuated significantly in the past few seasons, that alone is misleading. The number of WRs that generated at least nine TDs has remained even. Plus, 17 WRs scored at least eight times in 2011, while 16 accomplished that in 2010.

Also, Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham have become enticing options for some owners, but I do not recommend using an early pick on either TE.  Let someone else burn a high pick on that position, while you diligently build your roster in other areas.

Wide Receivers 2000-2011 

Highly Productive Quarterbacks Are More Prevalent Than Ever

The fourth factor is that more QBs than ever are throwing for sizable yardage and TDs, which in turn results in that position taking increasing command of the fantasy point leader board. The statistics below demonstrate just how significantly passing in general has increased. 10 different signals callers threw for 4,000 yards last season, which is a 500% jump from 2000, and a 100% increase from 2007. It is also the second time that has occurred in the past three seasons.

Plus, an average of 11 QBs have thrown at least 25 TDs in the past three years, which is another sizable leap from  2000, when only four attained that number. And, 16 signal callers had at least 500 passing attempts last season which was easily the most ever. It the fourth time in five years, that at least 10 QBs surpassed that number, after only three achieved that mark in both 2005 and 2006.

It may be tempting to believe that this provides compelling evidence toward waiting to draft your QB. And to me, that strategy contains more substance than waiting to draft your WRs. But if you reside in a league with 12 teams or higher, why not seize a premiere signal caller, to ensure that you will win the weekly point battle at that position? If you aren’t inclined to make the early investment in a top tier QB (Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, or Matthew Stafford), then the rewards for selecting Cam Newton, Philip Rivers, Tony Romo, (and possibly Peyton Manning) before your competition does, are too high to dismiss.

 Quarterbacks 2000-2011 

Still not convinced? It may help to know that I attempted this approach last season, upon discovering that I would be drafting in the 11^th slot. Calvin Johnson was my first selection, followed by Tom Brady, which ensured the presence of both a truly elite WR and QB. In round three, Wes Welker, Marques Colston, Brandon Marshall, Miles Austin, Dez Bryant, were still available, and were more appealing options than the RBs remaining  on the board. Then in round four, DeAngelo Williams became my first RB selection, which began the process of stockpiling backs. Megatron, Brady, and waiver wire wonder Cruz, ultimately guided that team to a championship, in a very competitive league. Granted, if Andre Johnson had been the first selection instead of Calvin, the results would have been different. However, there is undeniable proof that this system can succeed.

Therefore, as you prepare for your upcoming drafts, consider what the statistics have shown.

1. The NFL’s dependence upon feature backs has degenerated significantly. And the need to select two RBs early in the draft has dissipated right along with it.

2. The small number of elite WRs will be unavailable quickly in your drafts. 

3. Passing statistics continue to climb, making the top tier QBs even more valuable.

 Based upon the data, the advice from this columnist for those who are not drafting at the  top of round one is:

1. Make sure that you have selected your No. 1 WR by the end of the second round. Otherwise, you will be at a disadvantage that will be exceedingly difficult to overcome throughout the regular season

2. Strongly consider drafting two WRs within the first three rounds, which will provide you with a scoring advantage at the position in nearly every matchup

3. Take further advantage of the escalating passing numbers, by also securing a QB within the first three rounds

4. If you remain uncomfortable with the idea of taking your first RB in round four, remember  that if you select a back that you are not completely enthralled with, while leaving elite WRs and QBs on the board, you will regret that decision as the season progresses.