Don't Draft Rookie Tight Ends

If you're looking at the rookie tight ends from the NFL draft and wondering who is worth a flier in your fantasy football draft this information will help. History tells us that you should avoid rookie tight ends, period. But I know you won't take my word for it. You're probably still thinking you should draft O.J. Howard. Or that Evan Engram and David Njoku are worth a draft pick. Let's take a look at how 1st round and 2nd round rookies have performed in fantasy football over the past 20 years or so. That should temper your expectations and hopefully guide you toward a draft strategy of high upside running backs and wide receivers.

1st Round Rookie Tight Ends, Thou Shall Not Draft

Jan 11, 2016; Glendale, AZ, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide tight end O.J. Howard (88) runs the ball against Clemson Tigers safety T.J. Green (15) during the fourth quarter in the 2016 CFP National Championship at University of Phoenix Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

Since 2000, what big names have been drafted in the 1st round and produced top 10 fantasy football stats? None. This is based on a list of big name tight ends such as: Jeremy Shockey, Vernon Davis, Kellen Winslow, Greg Olsen and Heath Miller to name a few. Shockey did net a couple worthy games and ended the season with almost 900 receiving yards but only a handful of touch downs. Now if you're in a dynasty league then obviously you're targeting rookies but you'll likely need to grab at least two TE since pass catching TE is such a difficult position to transition to at the NFL level. Sitting on TE is tough because it takes a couple years for them to really develop. If you're in a league with a shallow bench perhaps you should consider trading for a TE versus drafting a rookie and hoping he pans out in a couple years.

Year	Pick	Player	Tm	Yards	Avg	TD	Fantasy Points
2000	14	Bubba Franks	GB	363	11	1	42.3
2000	27	Anthony Becht	NYJ	144	9	2	26.4
2001	31	Todd Heap	BAL	206	13	1	26.6
2002	14	Jeremy Shockey	NYG	894	12	2	101.4
2002	21	Daniel Graham	NE	150	10	1	21
2002	28	Jerramy Stevens	SEA	252	9.7	3	43.2
2003	24	Dallas Clark	IND	340	12	1	40
2004	6	Kellen Winslow	CLE	50	10	0	5
2004	32	Benjamin Watson	NE	16	8	0	1.6
2005	30	Heath Miller	PIT	459	12	6	81.9
2006	6	Vernon Davis	SF	265	13	3	44.5
2006	28	Marcedes Lewis	JAX	126	9.7	1	18.6
2007	31	Greg Olsen	CHI	391	10	2	51.1
2008	30	Dustin Keller	NYJ	535	11	3	71.5
2009	20	Brandon Pettigrew	DET	346	12	2	46.6
2010	21	Jermaine Gresham	CIN	471	9.1	4	71.1
2013	21	Tyler Eifert	CIN	445	11	2	56.5
2014	10	Eric Ebron	DET	248	9.9	1	30.8
2017	19	O.J. Howard	TB	TBD	TBD	TBD	risky
2017	23	Evan Engram	NYG	TBD	TBD	TBD	risky
2017	29	David Njoku	CLE	TBD	TBD	TBD	risky

2nd Round Rookie Tight Ends Are Risky Too

We already know that rookies are just risky in general. Outside of running backs landing in optimal situations it's just risky to draft a rookie for your fantasy team. The tight end position is riskier than most even when you factor in the 2nd round draft picks since 1999 (minus 15/16 but only Hunter Henry had an impact). Out of that group the only outlier you'll find is Rob Gronkowski drafted in 2010 and Hunter Henry drafted in 2016. Gronkowski snagged and earth shattering 10 touchdowns his rookie season. This surpasses all rookies drafted in the 1st and 2nd round since 1997. Hunter Henry was a 2nd round draft pick in 2016. He finished his rookie season with 478 yards and 8 touchdowns. If you grabbed him off your waiver wire in week 4 he probably helped you out in touch down only leagues.

The Rookies You Want To Draft

If you're targeting rookies in your fantasy football draft you'll want to target wide receivers and running backs. More so running back than wide receiver. I avoid rookie tight ends, quarterbacks and kickers. Remember, your later round draft picks are all about upside. You're hoping to hit a home run once you get into the later rounds. You'll then build solid depth with waiver wire picks once the season starts. Good luck this season and happy drafting!