The Top 6 Picks Have Been Made and now you're wondering who you should draft with your late first round draft pick. Yes, you are now halfway through the initial round of you fantasy draft, and Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy, Matt Forte, Adrian Peterson and Eddie Lacy, have departed the board. Now that we are beyond any possibility that you can secure any of those first five RBs, what should you do? Calvin Johnson has also been selected, which leaves you with a decision that will be more difficult than the six owners who proceeded you. Is the allure of having any of the remaining backs so immense that you feel compelled to grab them this early? Should you opt for a prolific WR and begin the foundation of your roster with their output? Or should you choose Jimmy Graham, in the belief that you can still construct a fantasy football roster that is adequately strong at the other positions.
I have sufficient concerns about the remaining backs to such magnitude that I can't justify employing a pick on any of them before the bottom of this round. Especially when you can secure an elite WR like Johnson, Demaryius Thomas or even Dez Bryant, who are each braced to excel once again this season. Grabbing a member of that trio provides more appeal to me than Montee Ball, who has become the darling of many within the fantasy community, but nonetheless remains largely unproven. Even though he has the potential to produce exceptional numbers, so did many backs who disappointed their owners in recent seasons, and particularly in 2013. This is not a forecast of failure for Ball. Just a decision to avoid utilizing a first round pick too quickly on such an untested commodity . Le'Veon Bell has also been a popular first round selection, even though he had an underwhelming 3.5 YPC last year, which was surpassed by 37 other backs. There is at least a moderate threat that Bell will now have an unsettling number of touches pilfered by LeGarrette Blount. Plus, he must endure a difficult schedule. No way do I trust Arian Foster to remain healthy, or to flourish within what is shaping up to be a deficient offense. And while I had been an unwavering believer in Marshawn Lynch during recent seasons, I am convinced that now is the time to walk away from that player/owner relationship.
I prefer DeMarco Murray to Ball, Bell, Foster and Lynch, as Scott Linehan's playcalling should supply him with a substantial opportunity to accrue fantasy points on the ground and as a dangerous target for Tony Romo from the backfield. I am also a proponent of grabbing Giovani Bernard sooner than many other observers. Not only do I believe that the second-year back will thrive in Hue Jackson’s offense, but it is also prudent to avoid overreaction to the presence of Jeremy Hill when making your assessment of the mega talented Bernard.
But I would not draft Murray or Bernard before the top three wideouts have been chosen. I simply cannot advise anyone taking any RBs (beyond Charles, McCoy, Forte, Peterson and Lacy), before the trio of receivers have been selected, unless you are truly convinced that the back you are about to draft is worthy of this valuable roster slot. You should definitely avoid falling into the trap of selecting a RB first primarily because so many members of the fantasy community are telling you to do so. Many other analysts still espouse the approach of loading up at RB quickly and repeatedly. This strategy often leaves proven point producers on the board, in favor of RBs who possess far more uncertainty. And I absolutely do not agree with this tactic. Anyone who has considered an elite WR, eschewed him for a back that initially arrived with questions, then later provided massive headaches, should fully comprehend this mindset. Thomas has garnered over 140 targets in two consecutive seasons, while collecting at least 92 receptions both times. He has also exceeded 1,430 yards each year, while accumulating double digits TDs each time during that span. I would favor drafting a 26-year old who has already established that he will supply mammoth production, rather than utilizing a first round pick on the backs that were discussed previously.
The Jimmy Graham Conundrum
Graham will also be an option at this point, which creates an additional layer of complication for owners. The idea of securing him late in Round 1 is enticing, since he would supply a positional advantage at TE on a weekly basis. And after missing 14 games in the past two seasons, Rob Gronkowski’s ability to sustain his health over the course of 16 contests is perpetually in doubt, which solidifies Graham as the premiere choice at his position. However, there is inherent risk in choosing Graham with your first pick, because it assures that either your RB1 or WR1 will not be chosen until at least Round 3. I have participated in several leagues drafts along with numerous mocks, and have witnessed mixed results for owners who chose to grab Graham strictly due to this drawback. A powerful lineup still can be constructed with Graham as the initial choice, but if you participate in a league where your competitors are exercising patience in the QB slot, and instead snatching up RBs and WRs, that also means that they are depleting your options at those two critical positions. Yet drafting Graham in the first round can be hugely beneficial, if you assemble your roster effectively from that point forward. Especially if you are not overly enamored with the idea of taking any of the remaining backs in Round 1, and neither Calvin Johnson nor Demaryius Thomas are available. That same principle applies for anyone who is faced with the enticement of seeing Peyton Manning available late in Round 1, and was explained at length in my piece on QB Strategy and Rankings.
What Should You Do?
So... who should you draft late in Round 1? You need to maintain complete flexibility during your initial round and maintain it throughout your entire draft. And it is very likely that at least one owner will deliver a first round surprise before your pick. Still, it is wise to have a basic plan, with the full knowledge that it should be adjusted on the fly as your draft unfolds. Here is how I am ranking the most likely options during the latter portion of Round 1, for both Standard and PPR leagues. Good luck, and don't overthink so much that you squeeze every ounce of enjoyment from the process.
Standard
1. Jamaal Charles
2. LeSean McCoy
3. Matt Forte
4. Adrian Peterson
5. Eddie Lacy
6. Calvin Johnson
7. Demaryius Thomas
8. Jimmy Graham
9. Dez Bryant
10. DeMarco Murray
11. Giovani Bernard
12. Montee Ball
PPR
1. Jamaal Charles
2. LeSean McCoy
3. Matt Forte
4. Adrian Peterson
5. Calvin Johnson
6. Demaryius Thomas
7. Jimmy Graham
8. Dez Bryant
9. DeMarco Murray
10. Giovani Bernard
11. Julio Jones
12. Eddie Lacy
