Week 1 is upon us and I am here to help you win cash games and GPP tournaments on Draftkings. Each week of the NFL season I'm going to publish value picks for the upcoming DraftKings slates. I'm looking for a solid value pick each week at each position. This will help you make room on your team for the more expensive players without sacrificing points with your value pick. Without further ado, here are my week 1 value picks for Draftkings.
Quarterback
Kirk Cousins (WSH) vs. PHI 21 FPPG (2016) $6,400 DK
The Eagles versus the Redskins is one of the juicy matchups in the opening week. Expect this game to go over the number (47.5). These two young quarterbacks should go toe-to-toe in this divisional contest. There is a strong possibility the Redskins will be trailing in a lot of football games this season, including this one.
Cousins is not afraid to air it out, and he'll likely have to with a sub-par running game. Cousins unleashed 34 pass attempts last season at home against the Philadelphia Eagles. I am expecting something in the mid 30s this time. The Redskins passing game will be flirting with a 300 yard passing game to earn +3 DK bonus.
A couple of interesting statistics stand out when Cousins is trailing in a game:
- Nearly triples in passing yardage gained when trailing (3,030 yds) versus when leading (1,035 yds)
- 69.2% completion rate when trailing versus 64.3% when ahead
I'm not buying into the narrative that Cousins will be turning the ball over left and right because of the aggressive air attack scheme. You should be able to grab whatever QB you prefer in week one, but save a few DK dollars and roll with Cousins.
Running Back
Bilal Powell (NYJ) @ BUF 12.8 FPPG (2016) $4,900 DK
Powell should be given every opportunity to be the entire New York Jets offense this season. He is priced just outside DK top-15 running backs with the likes of Tevin Coleman, Jonathan Stewart and Eddie Lacy priced higher. Do you honestly believe they are going to outperform him in a given week? He had an outstanding performance in week 17 versus Buffalo last year (22 att, 122 yds, 3 rec, 1 rec TD) and his price-tag will likely never be this low again in 2017. However, Powell should be highly owned in week 1. If you want to go the contrarian route look at cheaper options in: Theo Riddick, Legarrette Blount, Duke Johnson Jr or Frank Gore. I still love the Powell value, highly owned or not.
Wide Receiver
Rishard Matthews (TEN) vs. OAK 13.8 FPPG (2016) $4,200 DK
Matthews finished 2016 with two 100 yard receiving games (week 15 @KC where he was targeted 10 times and week 17 vs HOU with 13 targets). Like the PHI/WSH game, this game has the makings of going over the number (51). Oakland defense allowed 375.1 yds/g in 2016 (7th most). The Titans passing game should come out firing in their home opener. Matthews has a good rapport with Marcus Mariota, and is primed to grab hold of that WR1 spot as he's the most complete receiver on the roster. Most noteworthy, Eric Decker and Corey Davis have been banged up this preseason which will put both of them behind the eight ball. Matthews is the obvious play here.
Tight End
CJ Fiedorowicz (HOU) vs. JAX 8.9 FPPG (2016) $3,100 DK
The Houston Texans finished bottom-five in passing yards per game last year (198.5 yds). Tom Savage will be the savior (ummm...not really). However, Savage should be looking Fiedorowicz's way early and often (say 7-9 targets). In Savage's three appearances last year, he averaged 8.7 yards per completion (Fiedorowicz averaged 10.4 yds per catch). Sounds like they could click. Rather than ponying up on a top five tight-end in the opening week, one should look for value at this position.
Defense/Special Teams
Los Angeles Rams vs. IND 5.8 FPPG (2016) $3,200 DK
Scott Tolzien will start week 1. #INDvsLAR pic.twitter.com/DdsCkglwlC
— Indianapolis Colts (@Colts) September 4, 2017
Sold yet? I am! Save a couple bucks, and ride with the Rams D/ST. Coming off a 31 sack season, front pressure should be on full display versus a weakened Colts offense. Even without Aaron Donald, the Rams defense will be more than a match for the Colts. Expect around a double-digit DK performance.
Check back each week for more Draft Kings value picks. Pair these with some of the higher priced players and prepare to rule your DFS contests. For more info and insight, follow us on Twitter: @_knuckleheads and @KJ_Lups.
