Before I get into my FanDuel Week 5 value picks for quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, tight ends, kickers and team defenses, I thought we’d discuss the state of the NFL schedule. You survived the first week of bye weeks in the 2015 Fantasy Football season, but that was just a drop in the ocean, with the Patriots and Titans out. Sure, you missed Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski, Julian Edelman and the running backs, but the Titans are still shaky to rely on regularly from a Fantasy perspective.
But now, we’re looking at four teams taking a seat, including Carolina, Miami, Minnesota and the N.Y. Jets.
Sure, Cam Newton’s the only star at quarterback we’re missing out on, but both Teddy Bridgewater and Ryan Fitzpatrick have shined at different times – and lower prices – this season, too.
The biggest name we’ll miss for Week 5 is Adrian Peterson, with tight end Greg Olsen not too far behind. But the return of Gronk makes the loss of Olsen a little easier.
But we’re also going to be missing four relatively sound defenses this week. Well, the Dolphins DST has been a huge disappointment, but the other three rank among the top 11 in Fantasy leagues, so far.
We’re going to take a look at some solid value picks, using the Fantasy Knuckleheads FanDuel Optimal Lineup Tool and help you set up a winner!
After posting our Week 5 Fantasy Football Rankings, and going through the FanDuel salaries, I came up with a couple of my favorite value plays at each position for the upcoming weekend of NFL action!
Each week, my goal is to find a decent high-priced player that will give you a good return on investment, and a cheaper value play that will allow you to spend more money at other positions.
Quarterback (QB) Value Picks
Tom Brady, New England ($8,800) at Dallas: Let’s do the math on this one – Tom Brady has been one of the hottest Fantasy QBs this season, he gets an extra week to prepare, and he’s facing a Cowboys defense that that gave up 26 Fantasy points each to Drew Brees and Matt Ryan over the past two weeks. The Optimal Lineup Tool sets his value at 2.6 for this weekend – a very good number.
Brandon Weeden, Dallas vs. New England ($6,400): Two guys from the same NFL game!?! Am I insane!?! That’s beside the point. I’m picking both quarterbacks because I think they’re both going to take advantage of the opposing pass defenses! Vegas expects this game to be the highest-scoring affair of Week 5, with a 49.5 over/under.
Running Back (RB) Value Picks
Le’Veon Bell, Pittsburgh ($9,000) at San Diego: Investing in a $9,000 running back isn’t something you should take lightly! But the Chargers have a decent pass defense, and the Steelers won’t be trying to throw it much with Michael Vick under center anyway. The Chargers defense is allowing 27.00 Fantasy points to running backs this season – the second-highest mark in the league.
Todd Gurley, St. Louis ($6,700) at Green Bay: It’s always nice to find a player coming off a huge week, with a ton of upside, and a low salary that hasn’t been adjusted since he proved he was healthy. He totaled 161 yards against Arizona, and now he faces a Packers defense that gave up three rushing touchdowns to the Chiefs in Week 3.
Wide Receiver (WR) Value Picks
Julian Edelman, New England ($7,700) at Dallas: While starting both Brady and Edelman in the same cash game isn’t necessarily advisable, but Edelman has a great matchup, and the Lineup Tool likes him as the best value this weekend. Only four wide receivers have averaged more FanDuel points per game this season than Edelman.
Allen Robinson, Jacksonville ($6,300) at Tampa Bay: Allen Hurns had the big game last week, and while we like both of them to play well against a mediocre Buccaneers secondary, Robinson should bounce back in Week 5. The Colts used Vontae Davis against him last week, and the Jaguars threw away from him.
Tight End (TE) Value Picks
Antonio Gates, San Diego ($5,500) vs. Pittsburgh: Pretty much everyone will be playing Gates in this matchup in his first game back, so consider Gates a much better cash games play than in GPP tournaments. With that said, a very smart GPP play might be to fade Gates, and use LaDarius Green against the Steelers.
Owen Daniels, Denver ($4,900) at Oakland: This Raiders defense has allowed one touchdown catch to a tight end in every game so far this season.
Kicker (K) Value Picks
Dan Bailey, Dallas vs. New England ($5,000) vs. New England: Getting a good kicker at home on turf in a game that’s expected to be high scoring? Yes, please.
Cairo Santos, Kansas City ($4,600) vs. Chicago: Well, kicking seven field goals last week came after his price was set, makes him a bargain this week. It’s obvious the Chiefs trust him to kick away.
Team Defense (DEF) Value Picks
Buffalo Bills Defense ($4,800) at Tennessee: While it’s true, the Titans had a week off to prepare, I still like the Bills to bounce back against a rookie quarterback I’m not completely sold on yet.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Defense ($4,000) vs. Jacksonville: The Bucs defense is not great by any measure, but they still have some playmakers at each line of defense, and this looks like a great GPP play.
Good luck in Week 5, and make sure you run your prospective FanDuel lineups through the Fantasy KnuckleHeads FanDuel Optimal Lineup Tool!