A show of hands. How many people not only remember Ravens receiver Torrey Smith, but remember the balance act fantasy football fans had to deal with regarding the speedy wide-out last season? Torrey Smith was all the rage by mid-August and many fantasy owners felt he deserved some sort of roster spot, whether it be through the draft, or even as a waiver wire pluck.
Yes, he was on a few waiver wires last season.
But there were a few issues that hindered his overall fantasy value.
1. Smith developed a small penchant for dropped balls. This eventually led to many of us writers suggesting he wasn't to be trusted.
2. The Ravens moved the ball through the air primarily with Anquan Boldin (a possession receiver) and pummeled the opposition with their ground game as a supplement.
3. The Ravens were—and will be again—a primary double tight-end set team. When Smith began losing looks due to his shaky hands, fantasy owners missed out a bit—a bit— on the speedy receiver's deep-ball threat possibilities.
But that was then, and this is now and everything in fantasy is about Maximizing Your Draft Strategy especially when sleepers are involved.
Here's the deal. The Ravens thought they got cute by bringing in Jacoby Jones who is one of the worst pass-catchers I've seen, but they did so for one single reason: Speed. The idea here is that with Torrey Smith on the other side of the field and Boldin in the slot (when playing out of their three-wide sets) the offense opens up tremendously.
In other words, even if the corners don't take Jones seriously they'll have to account for him, ergo lessened defense against Smith.
For those wondering about Smith's issues last year with "dropped balls", don't be. In all actuality, Smith only dropped seven balls out of 95 total targets, but because he was a rookie, he was playing on a short leash.
So what did Torrey Smith do that has him elevated to sleeper status?
| WK 3 | 8 targets | 5 REC | 152 yds | 3 TDS | Vs. STL | 7th vs. pass |
| WK 11 | 7 targets | 6 REC | 165 yds | 1 TD | Vs. CIN | 9th vs. pass |
| WK 15 | 7 targets | 6 REC | 77 yds | 1 TD | Vs. SD | 13th vs. pass |
These are just three games I am highlighting, but they do speak volumes of what this kid is capable of, primarily because of the brand of defenses he was facing. Despite falling in and out of coaching favor at times, the kid kept on pushing every week, and did some serious damage to some pretty good teams.
This season the Ravens want to spread the ball around more than they did in 2011, and much like last year, Smith is figured to be the primary deep-ball threat once again.
Smith ended 2011 with a 16.8 average last season, which was only 1.9 yards less than Denarius Moore who became a down-field darling by season's end in many fantasy owner's eyes.
Smith's average downfield target however, was 19.4 which was higher than Moore ( 18.9 ), suggesting this is a guy who is used the same way as the Raiders used Moore, and even the Chargers did with Vince Jackson ( 18.6 aDOT).
Not enough? OK.
Let's use the three gamers named here since all three are highly regarded as deep-ball threats, and compare their value.
|
Player |
Targets |
REC |
YDS |
TDs |
aDOT |
Games |
ADP |
|
Moore |
76 |
33 |
618 |
5 |
18.9 |
13 |
5th RND |
|
Jackson |
115 |
60 |
1,106 |
9 |
18.6 |
16 |
5th RND |
|
Smith |
95 |
60 |
841 |
7 |
19.4 |
16 |
8th RND |
If you look closely, Smith was second in targets, yards and touchdowns. His catch rate is the highest at 63 plus, and he was second in yards per game (52.6) to Vince Jackson (69.1).
But the kid is still a 8th round projection right now—simply put, there is more value in Smith than either or these two players.
This isn't to say that Moore and Jackson aren't worth their weight in gold. Vince Jackson is an elite receiver for sure, and Moore is a rising talent just like Smith, but is expected to share looks with Darrius Heyward-Bey—kinda makes that 5th round ADP a little high in my mind.
Here's a nice lowdown on what Vincent Jackson and the Bucs bring to the fantasy table in 2012.
The moral here, however, is this: By comparison, Smith is just as good as any high-end receiver. But the fact that he will open the season as the primary deep-ball threat in an offense that obviously utilizes him with a low ADP gives him a high value tag.
And considering what he has already done in one season, with a year to marinate a bit, this guy is one of the biggest sleeping giants in fantasy football as far as I'm concerned.
One more thing. Don't take that average ADP as a solid measure of where he will be, as mentioned in Tim Forcella's Top 50, ADP along with rankings are simply tools. Smith is actually averaging out as a 6th rounder in most mock drafts I've done, and I wouldn't be surprised if that's where he levels out by draft time.
