Is it too early to start planning?

Discussion in 'Fantasy Football Advice' started by SNPokc, May 15, 2014.

  1. SNPokc

    SNPokc DEZ NUTS 2016 Premium Member

    I have a keeper league and we are allowed to keep one player from the previous years final roster. I'm not sure what the scoring settings will be as the commissioner and I discussed changes the scoring a bit. MAYBE I can talk him into a PPR. In previous years it was a QB heavy league, in that the QBs score much more than the rest of the positions. Anyways, the player you choose to keep you had to have drafted and you give up the pick you took them in the previous year for that player. (also note I picked up Arian Foster and Ben Tate at the end of the season on waivers to no one could keep them, evil I know :) )

    1 - Jamaal Charles
    2 - Julio Jones
    5 - Matthew Stafford
    6 - Antonio Brown
    7 - Giovani Bernard

    These are the potential players I will be keeping and their respective round selection. I would love to hear anyone's input on the subject. I'm leaning toward Charles. But Bernard in the 7th seems delicious.
     
  2. Mike

    Mike Want some Cheetos?

    A one person keeper league, not my cup of tea! That being said, I'd clearly keep Matthew Stafford from that list.
     
  3. 86WARD

    86WARD -

    Antonio Brown as a 6th round pick is pretty decent value!
     
  4. SNPokc

    SNPokc DEZ NUTS 2016 Premium Member

    I've been doing some mocks with this in a spreadsheet and judging by how people have drafted previously, if I select anywhere after pick 5 or 6 I will keep Charles. First of the round and I will keep Julio or Brown, maybe Bernard. There will be too many top RB's off the board to avoid it (top 6 according the draft sheet, including Charles). And also in the mocks I did Julio Jones or another top tier WR was available with my 2nd pick. Luck, Stafford, Newton, and Foles are all projected within 13 points of each other, so no reason to reach for any of them too soon.

    He changed the settings a bit, nag the commissioner enough and good things happen.

    passing 50y/pt -2 int
    rushing/receiving 10y/pt
    all td's 6pt
     
  5. Greg Brosh

    Greg Brosh Local Eagles Fan Fantasy Guru

    With running backs being at such a premium, I vote keeping Charles and forking the first pick. There are several more quarterbacks with QB1 upside like Cutler, Romo and Foles. Plus there is always value at receiver every year. Even if you're league is non-PPR, Charles averaged close to 5 more receiving points a game with 8 more touchdowns. Knowing Reid, he'll run Charles into the ground again.

    Giving up Charles and landing another running back who is as much a part of the offense as he is with the Chiefs isn't happening.
     
  6. SNPokc

    SNPokc DEZ NUTS 2016 Premium Member

    Oh, I am also going to draft Josh Gordon somewhere around 10-11 if he is available... even if he is suspended all year. Potential keeper for next season in the 10-11th round. I'll just dump him at the start when we find out whether it is a full year or not, then pick him up late in the year for my final roster.
     
  7. Kurt

    Kurt That Server Guy Staff Member Fantasy Guru


    Josh Gordon is a straight up bona fid thug + brain damage moron.. I don't think they can take all the street out of him. Wasted pick.
     
  8. Greg Brosh

    Greg Brosh Local Eagles Fan Fantasy Guru

    The only problem with this is there will likely be at least 1 other team thinking the same thing about Gordon. Pick him up and keep him. But keep in mind we won't know the chemistry between Gordon and Manziel. Gordon was a huge favorite of Hoyer. That's something to think about.

    For a redraft team, I agree. But as much of an idiot Gordon is, he still holds some value in keeper leagues. Especially if, by an act of God, he only misses 8 games this year.
     
  9. SNPokc

    SNPokc DEZ NUTS 2016 Premium Member

    Well the thing is, in order to keep a player, you had to have drafted them, and you give up that spot in the next draft. ie. Charles is my first round selection. So I would just have to pick him up at the end of the year if it is a full year suspension. At worst, someone picks him up and blocks me from taking him, and reverts him value back to a 2nd-4th round pick in 2015.
     
  10. Greg Brosh

    Greg Brosh Local Eagles Fan Fantasy Guru

    You're talking about Gordon right? So what happens to Gordon's value next year if you DO draft him in the 10th.

    BTW, his ADP is now in the 9th. Was in the 8th, so he is dropping.
     
  11. SNPokc

    SNPokc DEZ NUTS 2016 Premium Member

    @Greg Brosh If I draft him in the 10th and he ends up on my final roster, (I think they set sometime after the championship, unless he locks waivers) then I can keep him in the round I selected him at. So going into the 2015 draft I would have him as my 10th round pick when it comes to my selection in that round. But if someone else grabs him, they cannot use him as their keeper because I was the one that drafted him, not them.
     
  12. Greg Brosh

    Greg Brosh Local Eagles Fan Fantasy Guru

    Then if you can keep Gordon if you draft him at 10, take it. BUT, don't get antsy if he's still there in the 8th. If someone picks him up at the spot, so be it. He isn't worth an 8th rounder. Hell by the time you guys actually draft, he might not even be worth a 10 anymore.
     
  13. SNPokc

    SNPokc DEZ NUTS 2016 Premium Member

    Yeah, we draft in two weeks, so plenty of time for them to make a decision. I'm also not opposed to taking him in the last round in place of my kicker, I generally don't select a kicker in this draft anyways. Not like I'm going to ever keep a kicker.
     
  14. SNPokc

    SNPokc DEZ NUTS 2016 Premium Member

    Trying to figure out what to do still. I have the 4th pick, 12 teams, I'm doing a mock on my own of what I think the other teams will do.

    After reading about how Giovanni Bernard has been on the field for all of the first team reps thus far in preseason, tells me they are going to try to make him the guy all year. Possibly looking at 250+ touches minimum. If I throw Charles back into the mix and keep Giovanni in the 7th, 4 players of these will be available, Calvin Johnson, Jimmy Graham, Jamal Charles and Eddie Lacy or Demaryius Thomas. Could end up having other great players available, you never know who throws who back into the mix in this league.

    Right now doing it this way my mock looks like:
    Jimmy Graham, Keenen Allen, Randall Cobb, Joique Bell, Michael Floyd, Tony Romo, Bernard

    I kind of like the look of a team like that. Maybe a RB instead of Cobb at 3. Depends on how it goes.


    QB WR WR RB RB W/R/T TE DEf K
    passing 50y/pt -2 int
    rushing/receiving 10y/pt
    all td's 6pt
     
  15. Greg Brosh

    Greg Brosh Local Eagles Fan Fantasy Guru

    Bernard for a 7th rounder is a pretty big value pick. I'd lean that way to. 250 touches is the bare minimum. He'll surpass that with receptions. Even in a non-PPR, he'll make up for it in his receiving yards.

    Only downside is Hill could steal goal-line carries. But even then, Bernard in the 7th is a steal.

    If you throw Charles back, then who are all your keepers?
     
  16. SNPokc

    SNPokc DEZ NUTS 2016 Premium Member

    My keeper would be Bernard. I can only keep one.
     
  17. Greg Brosh

    Greg Brosh Local Eagles Fan Fantasy Guru

    Oh jeez, I misread you then. I thought you could keep a few more of the guys you listed. In that case, I would go with Bernard for the 7th pick. He's the best value pick of the guys you listed

    1 - Jamaal Charles - No real value since he's already a first rounder.
    2 - Julio Jones - Some value, depending on what league.
    5 - Matthew Stafford - You can do just as good a couple rounds later
    6 - Antonio Brown - With the lack of true fantasy backs, I'd rather pass.
    7 - Giovani Bernard - GO TIME!