KFFL: Evaluating Tier 2 QBs

wide right · Aug 28, 2007

In past fantasy football seasons, many owners have viewed quarterback as a position that they could ignore until later in drafts. That is entirely possible, but they should understand the potential pitfalls that come with these low-end starters or high-end backups. Many of these second-tier quarterbacks have great upside, but they also carry a lot of risk. Planning to enter the season with one of them as your every-week starter is risky, and securing a dependable backup becomes a high priority if you do.

Jon Kitna, Detroit Lions

Outlook: Kitna is surrounded by a redoubtable set of weapons that has him poised for a productive season. He is coming off a career year in which he set various personal bests. His already solid receiving corps was given a boost with the addition of Calvin Johnson - this year's draft's can't-miss talent. Kevin Jones (foot), a respectable running back, may not be ready for the season. However, he will be joined in the backfield by Tatum Bell, a burner with big-play ability, as well as T.J. Duckett, a goal line and short-yardage specialist who should offer a good change of pace. Kitna's job will be to get the ball to the playmakers.

Fantasy Value: Kitna should be a solid mid-tier or low No. 1 quarterback, but he will probably have his poor moments fumbling or passing. He is not as talented as the top-tier quarterbacks, and he'll have his breakdowns that will cost you points on turnovers. He's also dealing with a young group of players, so it remains to be seen if they can all gel. They also should be playing catch-up a good amount of the time due to the team's ineptitude on defense.

Matt Hasselbeck, Seattle Seahawks

Outlook: The Seahawks offense has potential for big things this year, now that everyone is healthy. Hasselbeck will be throwing to wideout Deion Branch, who has had an offseason to get comfortable with the offense, and wide receiver D.J. Hackett emerged last year as a reliable asset. Hasselbeck will also have a 100 percent healthy running back in Shaun Alexander behind him; Alexander should keep defenses on their toes. While Hasselbeck can't be expected to carry any fantasy squads, he could approach his numbers of the four years prior to 2006, when he averaged 3,439 yards and 22 touchdown passes.

Fantasy Value: Hasselbeck holds his value as a No. 1 starter, but he's only of the low-end variety. His problem is that he has a lot of downside if drafted highly because he doesn't have a very high ceiling and has missed some time in past seasons. Owners should look for him in the middle rounds and draft a solid backup.

Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys

Outlook: The way Romo exited the playoffs overshadowed his regular season performance, which was commendable. He has the potential to really take his game to the next level this year, and he has the supporting cast to facilitate that. Running backs Marion Barber III and Julius Jones will play the part of the running game, while Barber in particular has displayed pass-catching ability. The receivers are one of the best crews working in the business. Terrell Owens spearheads the wide receiver effort, with contributions from Terry Glenn and Patrick Crayton. Tight end Jason Witten is no slouch and will likely get his fair share of touches.

Fantasy Value: Romo has excellent upside, although in some drafts he is a bit overvalued. He could be ready for a banner year. Owners that do take him, though, need to be aware of his poor finish to last year's regular season and need to plan accordingly in case that Romo shows up.

Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers

Outlook: Rivers had an excellent first year as a starter last season. He now has the respect for being a top quarterback, but his fantasy prospects are still a bit uncertain. His numbers last year were good, but he and the passing game may always be the sidekick to LaDainian Tomlinson's explosive running attack. What this means is that he may not get many red zone opportunities, and his action may be limited if they are leading games and trying to run out the clock. Their wide receiver stable is also inexperienced, although that is somewhat negated by the presence of All-World tight end Antonio Gates. Receiver Vincent Jackson, in his third year, seems ready to step up to take pressure off the other targets, though. New head coach Norv Turver isn't expected to change much about this offense.

Fantasy Value: While Rivers is expected to have success on the field, this doesn't necessarily translate into fantasy value. He could still be a decent option as a low-end No. 1 starter but is better used in matchup situations. He must prove that he's more consistent. Owners should draft a strong No. 2 with starting potential as a safety net.

J.P. Losman, Buffalo Bills

Outlook: Losman showed great promise towards the end of last season, as he finally remained fairly steady at the helm; he played 16 games for the first time in his career. While the outlook would appear sunny, he will be facing some new obstacles this year. He has a rookie running back starting behind him. The other cause for concern is his reliance on wide receiver Lee Evans in the absence of any other discernible targets. Defenses will likely recognize this and plan accordingly. Losman completed 62.5 percent of his passes last season, though. He threw 12 touchdown passes against eight interceptions in the final seven games of 2006.

Fantasy Value: Losman's value lies as a No. 2 with upside. Owners need to be cautious considering his hang-ups, but he become a viable fantasy commodity. He's not close to being an every-week starter yet. He did not accumulate too many scoring tosses last year (19) and threw 14 picks, so he'll have to make a bigger gap between the two.

Vince Young, Tennessee Titans

Outlook: Young looks promising coming off a rookie campaign in which he silenced a few critics. He knows how to win football games, but it remains to be seen if he has the fortitude to lead fantasy teams to victory. His overall production was on par with some regular fantasy starters, but he wasn't consistent and was playing largely on instinct. He has the potential to vault himself up the charts. For one, his running abilities enable him to score (seven rushing touchdowns last year), and this should only improve as he is expected to be allowed to run more. On the other hand, his artillery at the skill positions was downgraded, as the team lost two starters (running back Travis Henry and wide receiver Drew Bennett) to free agency. Young was also a poor passer, having completed a mere 51.5 percent of his passes for 12 touchdowns and 13 interceptions in 15 games (13 starts). Defenses should have more time to prepare for him this time around.

Fantasy Value: Young has value as a starting quarterback, but he is overvalued. Owners need to wait until the middle rounds to draft him as well as make sure they draft a viable backup. Between the Madden curse and the tendency for running quarterbacks to get banged up, fantasy general managers need to have guarded optimism when dealing with Young.

Matt Leinart, Arizona Cardinals

Outlook: Leinart had a solid rookie season. While he did not make anyone's jaw drop, he did perform solidified himself as the starter. The Cardinals have all of the pieces in place to orchestrate an explosive and aggressive offense. Wideouts Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin form one of the top duos in the league. Now they just need Leinart to step up and get them the ball enough. A kink in that plan will be the fact that new head coach Ken Wisenhunt is dedicated to the running game and wants to give it the emphasis. While that does alleviate some of the pressure on the young signal caller's shoulders, it also may limit his opportunities.

Fantasy Value: Right now it's hard to advocate him as a legit No. 1 quarterback. He just isn't proven enough for fantasy owners to feel certain that he'll produce the numbers warranted of someone in that role every week. He is a very solid backup that could turn out to be a steal, implying he carries upside, but owners should not pounce on him too early.

Eli Manning, New York Giants

Outlook: Manning is an intriguing prospect because of the streaks of potential he occasionally reveals. He has ample targets at his disposal, as tight end Jeremy Shockey plays with more intensity than many UFC fighters; Manning has wideouts Plaxico Burress and veteran Amani Toomer at his service, too. The only negative is the loss of running back Tiki Barber as a receiving threat, as he was a convenient safety blanket. Physically Manning is built for the position, and maybe this is the year his mind catches up to his body. It will need to do so, because he may be tested with an unproven running game featuring starter Brandon Jacobs and backup Reuben Droughns.

Fantasy Value: Manning has the potential to be a starting fantasy quarterback, but he needs to exhibit significant production on a regular basis. If drafted low enough, he comes with upside, as he very well could have an excellent year. In contrast, there's also the possibility that his habitual troubles continue to plague him. This is a make-or-break year for Eli because he hasn't yet put it all together and take his game to the next level. His best value is as a backup with room to grow. This could be the year he busts out of his shell.

Chad Pennington, New York Jets

Outlook: Pennington has the head of a successful quarterback, but unfortunately his arm is holding him back. He has little power behind his throws. He may have even lost some of the touch and precision that made him stand out, but it could be a mental barrier. He has solid options in wide receivers Laveranues Coles and Jerricho Cotchery, but aside from them, there is very little to choose from. Running back Thomas Jones will hopefully provide a solid running game that will give added effectiveness to Pennington's play-action passes - one of the stronger aspects of his game. Running back Leon Washington is an excellent receiver out of the backfield.

Fantasy Value: Pennington cannot be considered anything better than a solid No. 2 quarterback. While his yardage output last year (3,352) was respectable, he only passed for 17 touchdowns; his career high is 22. From 2003 to 2005, he missed a total of 22 games. Pennington carries some downside because of his injury history, and his upside doesn't make him worthy of being a No. 1.

Jay Cutler, Denver Broncos

Outlook: Cutler raised a few eyebrows with his nine touchdown heaves in five starts last year, but he is still an unproven prospect because of his limited playing time. He is surrounded by the tools needed to get some serious work done, as he has an excellent No. 1 receiver to throw to in Javon Walker. Brandon Marshall and Brandon Stokley are solid wideouts themselves, and the team brought in tight end Daniel Graham this the offseason to give the position a boost. Tight end Tony Scheffler is a talented receiving tight end in his own right. Head coach Mike Shanahan has full confidence in Cutler, but it remains to be seen if he can succeed against NFL defenses on a consistent basis. He also averaged one interception per start; he also fumbled eight times, although he only lost two of them.

Fantasy Value: Right Cutler is a No. 2 quarterback, but that doesn't mean he can't develop into a solid starter. The issue is that he is still young and will likely make mistakes. How frequent those mistakes show up is the deciding factor. The Broncos defense should keep them in games, which means he shouldn't be scrambling around trying to orchestrate a comeback. He may only have to concentrate on executing and making his reads while the Broncos rely on the foundation of a strong running attack, as they have usually done under Shanahan.
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Source: Alex Schaefer, KFFL

Both of my teams are anchored by players on this list. I have Cutler/Losman on the one team and Leinart on the other. I'll be keeping my fingers crossed and an eye on that waiver wire.

Garnett · Aug 29, 2007

This is the first time in awhile that I've not had a 2nd tier QB as a starter on my roster. I like Matt Hasselbeck though as a quality starter. If Romo keeps his head together, he can prove to be very effective too. I had Philip Rivers last year and though he was decent on the field, that didn't translate into a lot of fantasy points. Especially with LT behind him. Though everyone is very high on him, I am not wow'd by Tennessee's WR's to take a chance on Vince Young unless rushing TDs get more points for the QB than passing TD's.

The Bitter Truth · Aug 29, 2007

In my big money main league I'm sitting pretty with Peyton Manning and Jon Kitna right now. That's a dynasty contract league though and I've had both for the past three years. Its all coming into play now. I shouldn't have any issues at that position. Except well, Kitna is off the same week as Manning. Ugh.

DoubleC · Aug 30, 2007

You can win a league with that kind of 2nd tier QB.
Last season, in my league the starting QBs for the Final were Vince Young and Jay Cutler.
In that same league, I drfted Peyton Manning, traded him for Steve Smith and finished the season with McNair at the helm. From the trade, McNair scored more points than Peyton and I almost reached the playoffs after a 6-game losing streak.

Garnett · Aug 30, 2007

DoubleC said: ↑

You can win a league with that kind of 2nd tier QB.
Last season, in my league the starting QBs for the Final were Vince Young and Jay Cutler.
In that same league, I drfted Peyton Manning, traded him for Steve Smith and finished the season with McNair at the helm. From the trade, McNair scored more points than Peyton and I almost reached the playoffs after a 6-game losing streak.
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How many points were passing TD's? Was the Manning for Smith trade a straight deal?

DoubleC · Aug 30, 2007

6pts/TD. Manning for Smith and that was it.
It was just before Manning's numbers started to "decline".

Garnett · Aug 30, 2007

I couldnt pull the trigger on a trade like that in a 6 pt/passing TD league unless I was in dire straights WR wise. Glad it worked out for you.

wide right · Aug 30, 2007

DoubleC said: ↑

In that same league, I drfted Peyton Manning, traded him for Steve Smith and finished the season with McNair at the helm. From the trade, McNair scored more points than Peyton and I almost reached the playoffs after a 6-game losing streak.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I'm shaking my head over that one. You must have odd rules for yardage or ppr because Manning's 31 TDs sure seem a hell of a lot more than Steve Smith's 8 TDs. Manning had 1 bad game, week 12 vs the Eagles. How in the hell did that work out for you?

The Bitter Truth · Aug 30, 2007

I'm wondering the same thing. Last season Manning finished pretty strong for me. He finished with a 15, 10, 29, and 22 point run in the playoffs with the average QB score in our league around 10 points. Hell, him and Marvin Harrison took me all the way to the championship last year. Reggie Bush getting hot didn't hurt either.

DoubleC · Aug 31, 2007

wide right said: ↑

Yeah, I'm shaking my head over that one. You must have odd rules for yardage or ppr because Manning's 31 TDs sure seem a hell of a lot more than Steve Smith's 8 TDs. Manning had 1 bad game, week 12 vs the Eagles. How in the hell did that work out for you?
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I'll put the complete league settings so maybe you'll have a better idea but I can tell you that from the moment I traded Manning, my other QB (McNair)scored more points than him.

Here you go:
Passing Attempts (-1)
Completions (2)
Passing Yards (40 yards per point)
Passing Touchdowns (6)
Interceptions (-5)
Rushing Yards (10 yards per point)
Rushing Touchdowns (6)
Receptions (1)
Reception Yards (10 yards per point)
Reception Touchdowns (6)
Return Touchdowns (10)
2-Point Conversions (2)
Fumbles (-2)
Fumbles Lost (-3)

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KFFL: Evaluating Tier 2 QBs

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KFFL: Evaluating Tier 2 QBs

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