Last year, you may remember that I produced a little study into QB fantasy scoring utilizing a basic formulae system. Although it produced a fairly decent insight into the QB potential for scoring for that coming season, it didn't take into account injuries suffered (Tom Brady 2008 season) or guys that hadn't been in the league for three seasons (Matt Ryan & Joe Flacco), thus giving warped results. This time around, I have normalized the QB's stats to a 16 game season in order to give us a true representation of a season's work and how they could perform without the variable that missing game time gives us, after all, this is to measure the potential scoring for the coming season, not if they are likely to miss time and limit scoring. (Eg. Drew Brees missed one game, therefore, his stat line was divided by 15, then that amount given was added, giving us his estimate stats, and thus fantasy scoring for that season. If a QB hasn't started 4 or more games in a season, and they have done so in a previous/advance season, then a +20%/0/-20% change is used for that season depending on the situation. If a QB has played a season before and after the season wipeout, then an average of the two seasons is used. In the event of insufficent data available, then they will not be given a score. Like last season, the passing scoring system is still the same (Taken from NFLUK Fantasy Football Scoring): 1 Point per 30 Yards Passing 3 Points per TD Pass 1 Point per 10 Yards Rushing 6 Points per Rushing Touchdown A difference made this year is the reductions between seasons. Last year, performance two seasons ago was halved (50%) and three years back was at 25% of of it's original stat line. This time, around two seasons ago is at 66% and three seasons at 33%, meaning that a poor season from last season doesn't have quite as much impact on the score as it would have last time around. Rushing performance also has been integrated this year to include the scoring production on the ground from QB's. Anyway, enough of the explanation, here are the results from my formulae: [table]Results 180.33 Drew Brees 180.22 Tom Brady~ 170.18 Aaron Rodgers 166.89 Tony Romo 162.25 Peyton Manning 155.37 Jay Cutler 154.80 Matt Schaub 154.44 Ben Roethlisberger 154.13 Donovan McNabb 152.87 Philip Rivers 147.45 Brett Favre 141.50 David Garrard 134.84 Eli Manning 134.09 Matt Cassel~ 132.02 Vince Young~ 130.24 Jason Campbell 126.65 Matt Stafford** 126.60 Kyle Orton~ 124.26 Carson Palmer 121.74 Matt Ryan* 121.33 Alex Smith~ 120.92 Joe Flacco* 118.44 Matt Hasselbeck 110.86 Josh Freeman** 105.95 Trent Edwards 102.43 Jake Delhomme~ 100.47 Chad Henne ** 89.14 Mark Sanchez** 85.46 Matt Leinart** 77.15 Matt Moore** [/table] * Required -20%/0/+20% adjustments for one season ** Required -20%/0/+20% adjustments for two seasons ~Required Averaging for one season There are going to be kinks/flaws like the majority of statisical measurements, so take these ratings with a grain of salt.
Not bad but I think there are two guys who are going to jump up on the list this up coming season. Henne and Flacco. I also see Brady dipping a bit because moss isn't what he was and he is going to miss Welker.
those scores are WAYYYY to low, let's just say brees doesn't run for any yards or a rushing TD, and only throws 30TD's (low end). That would mean he would only throw for 2700 yards. He is going to surpass that and so will at least a few others. Going by your scoring system, I would rank them such.... [table="head;sort=2d;autonum=1;autonumtitle=Rank;width=15em"]Name|Points Aaron Rodgers|273.0 Drew Brees|256.1 Tom Brady|245.2 Peyton Manning|240.8 Tony Romo|233.2 Matt Schaub|228.6 Jay Cutler|227.8 David Garrard|214.7 Kevin Kolb|210.9 Eli Manning|210.7 Brett Favre|208.1 Joe Flacco|203.7 Philip Rivers|200.7 Vince Young|191.6 Josh Freeman|191.0 Donovan McNabb|189.8 Carson Palmer|189.7 Matt Ryan|189.0 Matt Cassel|186.8 Matthew Stafford|183.4 Alex Smith|181.4 Jason Campbell|175.2 Kyle Orton|167.9 Chad Henne|167.5 Mark Sanchez|162.6 Ben Roethlisberger|158.4 Matt Moore|151.3 Matt Hasselbeck|150.5 Matt Leinart|137.6 Sam Bradford|124.0[/table]
Read it again Mike. "stats from two seasons ago (2008) is at 66% and three seasons (2007) at 33%" These scores aren't meant to give a score projection, they are for ranking (Although I should have reduced Roethlisberger's score by 32.5% because of his ban).
I gotcha, my rankings are a score projection using your scoring not factoring in any negative points for int's and fumbles.
