I Pick 5th... HELP

^^^
solid advice right there.

Let someone else waste an early pick on a QB. Read this:
Ultimate Fantasy Football Strategy

 

So far I think based on what I am hearing and seeing on my mocks I am going to go RB/WR/RB then probably take the best QB.. If i wait in round 4 I'll be looking at Roeth, Cassel maybe Palmer... Brady/Brees,Manning,Rivers,Rogers,Warner,Schaub, Romo,Mcnabb and Ryan will all be gone by the time i pick in round 5... In four I can get probably Warner, McNabb, Schaub or Ryan..
What do you think??

 

He's some ADPs from FFC. I still think you can get a quality QB in 6 or 7 as opposed to 4 or 5.

Average Draft Position (ADP) - Fantasy Football Calculator

 

wide I've been doing mocks there, but I PROMISE my league (13th year) QBs go often and early... just being real with the league and how the drafts roll out... i don't want to platoon garrard and hasselbeck...


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wide great site/articles BTW!! reaaaaally in depth stuff.. liked it a lot

 

so LET THEM. If you get sucked into drafting a QB too early, then you are just as bad as the rest of them. I'm sure that they aren't drafting 3 QB's to a team meaning you will be able to get a decent QB. let the others get the "top" qb's while you stack your team. If you must grab a QB, then don't get one earlier than the 4th, if you must, but I would wait. Try to start a run on other RB's or WR's and dictate the draft.

 

Mike I LOVE your conviction... i have actually normally drafted rb/wr/rb/rb/wr then qb and I take two in the next three rounds... I just havent won it in 5 years...


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i hate not having conviction to my strategy... I'm gonna come out of first four rounds with 3rb 1wr or 2/2... I'll adjust then based on best available... i think lol

 

oxlong's advise is solid

 

Believe what you want, but in a league like his, QB is by far the most important position. I understand what you're saying Oxlong but I disagree. Getting the top player at the top scoring position should be a priority. There are 3-4 at each position that are above the rest. Those 3-4 at RB are generally gone at pick 5...get the #1 QB that will score more total points in the league and give you a more consistent scoring week to week. I don't get the logic of getting the best at a second tier when you could have a choice of the #1 at the tier that scores the most total points. There are a lot of running backs that can be had at a value price that could score quite close to LT. (Ray Rice, Derrick Ward, Julius Jones)

 

dude
Julius Jones IS not even a startable RB in a 10-12 team league.

 

Some would have said the same about Thomas Jones last year. He's a starter on a decent offensive team. It's no more of a stretch then a middle tier QB.

 

thats a reach I am not willing to take. Ive seen what JuJones has done and its not impressive. Maybe you pick him up late and sit on him, but you dont start him week 1 and expect success.

 

Nor would I expect success picking a Romo or Cutler in round five and being able to compete with Brees or Brady. It's not unreasonable to see a 10 td difference between those tiers. A 10 td difference between running back tiers isn't going to happen. Again, QB will be the highest scoring position by FAR in a league that gives 6 pts for a passing TD.

 

LT is a top tier RB. you're nuts if you think otherwise. you start 2-3 RB's and 1 QB, in a 12 team league that's 12 QB's starting and 24-36 RB's. All qb's get the 6pts for TD's not just the top tier and from 2 decades of playing, the drop off from top tier QB is nowhere near the dropoff at RB, especially because of how many get drafted total. you may lose 75-100 total points taking the 10-15 ranked QB, but you could lose 75-100 points per RB missing a guy LT and taking a QB. I have played in plenty of 6pt TD leagues and as long as you are not playing with morons, then drafting a QB has hurt far more than it has helped. You do get a top QB, but you lose out ona top RB and top WR, you gain one position to lose out on 2 positions and you spend the rest of the draft trying to catch up.

1 position doesn't win in fantasy, consistency does, but if you in a league with fools, then it really doesn't matter I guess.

 

Well I've been playing fantasy football for close to 20 years also so we can stop mentioning that. To each their own, but I'll take my Ray Rice and Ryan Grant with my Drew Brees against your LT, Ronnie Brown, and Romo any day of the week.

In 6 point TD leagues for QB's, Manning, Brady, and Brees have won leagues nearly single handedly. Anyone that does their homework can get value at the WR and RB positions and ride the high scoring QB all the way to the playoffs.

 

first off ALL THE QB's get the 6pts for TD's and to say you would rather suffer at 2-4 other positions to get the jump on one position only against some of the teams (Because a few of the teams would also have a top level QB) just doesn't make any sense. A 10 TD difference is easy to happen with RB's when you are talking about the combination of 2-3 starters stats. and if you combine what you lose in RB and WR total that can be a total of how many TD's you lose combining all your RB & WR's TD's vs another team's. Is your one QB going to make up the difference in TD's lost at every other position. I highly doubt it.


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your not including WR's and the fact that if you are getting grant and rice later in drafts, then you are playing with fools and I said playing with fools, you can pretty much do what you want. I play with people who know what they are doing and I have never seen a guy who took a QB in the first 2 rounds win. The rest of their team is just not good enough. Those guys singlehandedly win a few games, but the league-no

 

Kurt Warner will fall some this year at QB, even though he's old he's throwing to the best receivers in the game, and you can handcuff him with Leinart. Oxlong knows what he's talking about.

 

I'll do the research to help support my point, you sound convinced but I am equally so. We'll see what the data says.

He's obviously experienced, but don't presume I don't know what I'm talking about.

 

I'm not presuming that at all, I just think that with alot of running back by committee teams out there, a top RB is huge, and there are only a handful of Elite WR's. There are some really solid QB's that can be had a little later IMO, thats all

 

I agree 100% with what Oxlong is saying. I NEVER take a QB before the 5th round...NEVER! I'll go RBs or WRs before I take a QB. LT is a money pick. I keep reading he's having a bad preseason, but he's a top-tier RB regardless. The drop off that Mike is talking about is amplified even more today. Teams are splitting carries more than ever and some teams (Saints, Giants...) are splitting carries over THREE RB's which makes that drop off even more...

Any fantasy football site you go to will tell you the same...some of them are even leaning towards drafting some WRs earlier than RBs...something I've been doing for about the last 3-4 years. Granted my league is a little different than others (I can start 1RB/3WR instead of 2/2 if I choose) so in the past I could draft a guy like Fitzgerald, Andre and then get a 2nd Tier RB in the third round and take another #1 WR in the 4th and then maybe a QB in the 5th. More times than not I wouldn't take one until late. Last year I waited until Round 12 and 13 to take my QBs. I took Rodgers and Eli. Not bad...my first four picks were Tomlinson, Wayne, Johnson, Forte.

Point is, QBs can wait...

 

THANK YOU !!! I appreciate all the feedback... here is a mock that I just did. I pretty much combined all of the information I have been gathering along with a couple of my insights and here is how it unfolded... it scored out a 92.3 on the adjusted scoring on FFCalculator
Forte
Westbrook
Welker
A Gonzo
Larry Johnson (value)
McNabb
Owen Daniels (think he'll be a top 3 TE)
Cedric Benson (love the value)
David Garrard (my "sleeper" QB this year)
Minnesota D
Crayton
Steve Smith Giants
Chestor Taylor
Zach Miller (upside... )
Elam
my league has two more spots... I would wait on Kicker and round off with a rb or wrs...
What do you all think? I think it is very solid!