I Pick 5th... HELP

You can't assume he won't get the #1 QB and at the same time assume he'll get the #5 best back.

Last year with his league scoring the number 1 QB outscored the #5 RB by 255 points. How could you not take those points??? The #1 back scored 271 the entire year. The #1 QB is equivalent to #3 and #4 RB's combined point-wise with that scoring. I think it's a no brainer.

 

the same that you can't assume that he will get the #1 QB, lol

that would only matter if he didn't get any RB's at all.

You have to compare QB's to QB's and RB's to RB's etc.

The points gained from the top QB (if he happened to actually draft the #1 QB in the first round) to whatever QB he would get later (no matter what the league scoring is, all QB's are subject to that league scoring), will not equal the total points lost of the 4-5 RB's/WR's he could have had taking those players with higher picks and waiting on taking a QB. 95% of the time, the points just don't make up the difference.

 

I don't see how you can add up the points of 4-5 players to compare to one. That's flawed logic right there. I'll get those players in rounds 2-5 instead of 1-4. I'm still gonna get 2nd round talent at RB which will be a top 10 back. I'll get a top 20 back in round 3, still probably get a top 10 receiver in round 4. Get the best receiver available in round 5 (10-15). I'm still getting players. You would have to assume the points of a 2nd round RB against a 1st round, 3rd round RB against a 2nd round, etc. My whole argument is that won't add up to the difference between the #1 QB and the #5 QB. Maybe it will, who knows.

Reality is we have no idea who those players are going to be, we take our best guesses based on research and past performance. It never works out the way you draw it up. That's the fun of the game. We hope to uncover some nuggets in the late rounds. Those little gems or some saavy waiver wire work are what wins championships.

 

that's only true if the guy taken in the first round ends up the #1 QB, which going by history is unlikely. I compare total of 1 starter (QB) to the total of the 4-5 other starters (RB/WR) who suffer because of taking the one starter at QB in the first round of a position that there is just more available, and the chances of getting that top level player at the other position diminishes due to the amount of players at those positions being drafted, there is just not that volume of QB's being drafted.

 

I'm following you, with the 5th pick I just don't see the difference being that drastic.

Let's project it out assuming RB-RB-WR-WR-QB vs QB-RB-RB-WR-WR.

Instead of the 5th RB at that spot, assume I get the 11th in the second round. The difference is 35 points...not insignificant, but no huge over 16 games. Then instead of #13 or #14 in round 2 I would get #20 in round 3. The difference there is only 12 points. That's a total of 47 points or 3-4 a week.

In round 4 I get WR #8 or #9 instead of #4 in the third round. That's a difference of 18 points. In round 5 I get WR #17 instead of WR #8 in the third round, that difference is 21. That's a total of 39.

That makes the grand total of 86 points difference estimated to lose out on through those 4 positions. That's about 6 points a week.

If I get the #1 QB instead of the #5 QB assuming the #5 is there in the fifth round, the difference is 87 points.

Based on that it looks like a wash...lol. Like you said it comes down to risk which I believe exists on any pick at any position. Brady wasn't a risk last year in my book, he just got hurt and that's bad luck.

 

I can see your point there and you are right that it definitely should be geared toward what the individual is more comfortable with. When I used to write fantasy articles, I would always tell people to go with their gut as luck definitely has a part in winning a fantasy league. I just personally feel the risk is greater taking a QB too early, I have seen it fail too many times, no matter the scoring system.

 

For sure...I used to be hardcore RB-RB in years past but I've softened my stance on that a little bit. I really try to get a top 5 in each position and go from there. There is so much that goes into making a solid draft plan. How many teams? What is the scoring system? Who are you playing against? What are their tendencies and who are their favorite teams/players.

I should go ahead and shut up now anyways, I didn't have a very good auction draft today and I'm pissed about it. I overspent for Peterson because this league usually overvalues RB. Turns out they don't overvalue RB anymore. My team isn't bad but I could've gotten a top 3 receiver if I hadn't overspent on AP.

 

I have thoroughly enjoyed this discussion. But unless a league offers ridiculous bonus points to theirs QBs you can't convince me that taking a QB early is a good strategy. Especially the original premise of this argument which was taking a tier 3 QB early becuase of his leagues run early on QBs. I like to either start runs or go the opposite of them.

 

This is my major point, the QB points will be double for TD from what they get in a normal scoring league. Double what their normally valued is ridiculous to me.

 

They're not double.

 

Yes they are...6pts for TDs. Standard scoring leagues give 3 per passing TD.

 

I've heard of 4pt (yahoo default) and 6pts but never 3 for QB tds. I don't see it being an advantage in that scoring system. I too play in a 6 pt QB TD league. Tyler Thipen had more points last season in our system than Matt Forte. Who would you rather have on your team? The talent at RB isn't as deep as QB that's why the early pick on QB isn't getting the most bang for your buck.

 

I'm not going to restate my position and why I feel that way. I've explained it as best I can. I don't advocate picking certain positions in certain rounds. Every pick must be evaluated for it's particular circumstance. Given the OP's circumstance I said I would go Brees. Many disagree and that's fine. I'm not trying to convince anyone of anything, only supporting why I feel that way.

In fact, there's no guarantee one of the top 4 RB doesn't fall to him. It depends on what you have ranked based on your research.

 

exactly Wide Right! All the QB's are held to the same scoring, and also I have never heard of 3 pt's for passing TD's. That is not standard. I have heard of 4/5/6. The depth at QB is much better than other positions because you only start 1 QB and multiple at the other skill positions, putting a higher premium on them.

 

OK... Back to my "old school" ways ... here is my latest mock... lmk what you think based on picking 5th... on a side note, this reflects some of the great info that wide right has passed on with drafting three qbs and two quality te's... really thought about it and like it... LMK what you think... my actual draft goes 17 rounds not 15...
5th pick
LT
Jennings
Boldin
Larry Johnson
Derrick Ward
Chris Wells
Jay Cutler
Kevin Walter
Roethlisberger
Minn D
Garrard
Dustin Keller
Earl Bennett
Zach Miller
Akers

With two other picks I would probably get a wr and a rb prospect...